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Johnny Ringo

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Everything posted by Johnny Ringo

  1. Johnny Ringo
    The intelligence of trading Vasquez (or anybody else) can only determined contextually. People like to paint the idea as "smart" or "dumb". If you have to eat a lot of his salary and get little in return, that's dumb. If you can move his contract and get something reasonable back, that's smart. I have no idea which it is, but I would guess it's somewhere in the middle which is why it hasn't happened, yet but his name is still out there.
  2. Johnny Ringo
    If I were going to spend $22 million a year on someone it would be a guy who plays 64 feet from first base and takes 4 days off regularly. Unless, of course, you are dying to wear your Dobnak jersey again.
  3. Johnny Ringo
    The Twins want to cut payroll in 2024. Because of the RSN death star explosion, half of the MLB teams face an altered reality. Some teams will have to cut payroll as they don't have the relative financial flexibility that the Twins enjoy (if they care to exercise it). This will create opportunity at first base and other places. As bummed and POd people are about the payroll topic, I think there is an opportunity for the FO to shine and distinguish themselves this season.
  4. Johnny Ringo
    Given his injury history, you have to plan that Buck will play zero games for you in CF next year. He will be 30 in 2024 and as such, he is starting to age out of the position naturally anyway. So, you need both a short and long-term solution there. Michael A fills half of that bill. He had a 1.8 WAR last year. With the budget realities and the Buxton realities, I would think hard about internal candidates (Martin, et al) that you can plug in for several years and view any Buxton contribution as completely serendipitous.
  5. Johnny Ringo
    I say all of this a little tongue-in-cheek. Maybe it will be taken that way. Maybe not. The real winner in this is Mr. Bonnes. He throws out a flamethrower title (Meltdown!!) and then watches as 160 plus comments are registered. We've got eyeballs baby!!!!!! The same Mr. Bonnes who suggested two weeks ago on his podcast that the Twins 2024 payroll should be $170 million because it was $154 million last year and those players need a cost-of-living increase. I hadn't laughed that hard in a while. Thank you. I needed that. I would guess that Falvey's comments might have been floated to right-size expectations like this. I have no idea where that comment came from (we lost $54 million in revenue, let's spend more!!) but there it was. This podcast's popularity suggests that it is a thought leader. The Twins will be fine. I have increasing confidence in the FO and the next-gen ownership to do smart and competitive things. Lets give them a chance. But, y'all sign up for the Patreon. Podcasters need to fight inflation too.
  6. Johnny Ringo
    The Strasberg retirement is instructive here. He retired and was paid in full because he was deemed to have incurred a work place injury. Such matters are provided for under the MLB collective bargaining agreement and are common to union contracts. I am sure under the provisions of the CBA and the particular contract (which would cross-reference the CBA) that some form of medical sign-off is required for this, lest a guy can decide that he just doesn't want to play. Given Byron's history, I doubt that would be difficult to obtain. I hope that this helps everyone.
  7. Johnny Ringo
    They had a collective WAR of 2. Two times $8 million is $16 million. They spent $56 million. $56 minus $16=$40 million lost.
  8. Johnny Ringo
    The Twins Payroll Meltdown? Really? Normally, I would say that a writer doesn't control his headline (the editor does) but I don't think that is the case with John. Just a guess. I don't typically quote someone I loathe but I will break that rule here. Everybody, R-E-L-A-X. Let's see how it plays out before we trash the FO and ownership.
  9. Johnny Ringo
    In 2023, that group (Correa, Vasquez, Gallo and Solano) collectively had a WAR (within a rounding error) of 2. They spent $56 million on them. So by modern baseball pay scales, the FO burned about $40 million or 26% of their payroll. That gets you an F most places. Very few businesses can withstand (outside of the government) over a quarter of their salary spend contributing nothing. I am not a fire Falvey guy though. On the other side of the scale, the trades for Lopez, Gray and Ryan were simply brilliant. He has a lot of ownership in the ascendancy of the fabulous rookie class (Lewis, Julien) too. Free agency spending is a lot like hot sauce. It is a nice touch. But if you live on it, you are likely to experience severe indigestion.
  10. Johnny Ringo
    If given a vote, I would cast it for Cory out of the likely options. He is knowledgeable, polished and an easy listen. As for his color commentary partner, I hope that the powers-that-be are open-minded. The default, of course, is to get a recognizable ex-player. Bert, Morneau, Perk, etc. Justin, for all the world, seems like a great guy. But he talks ENDLESSLY and never lets the game breathe. He always seems like he is on a first date; terrified of silence. If they put me in charge, I would go to Jessica Mendoza (or someone like her) and recruit hard. Whip smart, funny, engaging. She is as refreshing as the first day of spring training. Suzyn Waldman of the Yankees opened this door. Twenty years in, she is still great. It's a new era for the Twins on many fronts. Let's break the mold.
  11. Johnny Ringo
    You wrote "Personally, I think it is very likely he will accept the qualifying offer and ultimately sign elsewhere." I believe you mean reject. I enjoy your writing Nick a lot but the parallel to Pavano is misplaced. Carl had issues both on the field (innumerable IL stints) and off (best unspoken) that limited his suitors. Sonny is a much better pitcher and has the bulldog mentality that is always coveted. Gray will get a 3 year/$60 million offer (at least) from somebody. The pressure to take it will come from multiple sources (the union, his agent, his relatives if they are anything like mine). I hope the Twins can find it in their budget to keep him. He has the mentality of a champion.
  12. Johnny Ringo
    The Twins beat you to this punch Stu when they inducted Dan Gladden into the Twins Hall of Fame. His outstanding career accomplishments include having the same lifetime WAR as Nick Punto. (Sadly this is not a joke.) People were amazed at "Dazzle's" bravery in showing up at the event as there had been some pretty nasty threats from those punks over at Webster's Dictionary. But he didn't scuffle. He went up there whompin'.
  13. Johnny Ringo
    It's the right move regardless of the FO's intent to include them on the 2024 roster. With the buy-outs necessary if the options weren't exercised you have a marginal expense of $8 or $9 million for each of them. That's value. You can sort out the rest later. Kepler always seems to hang on, no matter the situation. I would guess that Jorge gets flipped for a prospects but maybe not. It's savvy either way.
  14. Johnny Ringo
    I don't share the collective confidence here that we understand the revenue effects for 2024. On the their latest free podcast (which has basically become an ad for the Patreon version) Gleeman urges an unchanged payroll where Bonnes advocates for a "cost-of-living " adjusted spend of $170 million. (Do these guys really need a COLA?) I had to laugh at those figures. They don't intimate that the Twins have told them that even the lower figure is realistic. I guess it is hard to sell 2 or 3 Patreons a week with "well, it depends on the budget." I do have confidence though that the FO will spend and deal within the parameters that they are given. It's taken awhile for me to get there on them but these guys aren't afraid to be audacious. Like their hitters, they have had a fair amount of swing and miss (Mahle, Buxton) but they go up there hacking and sometimes hit homers (Gray, Ryan). The implosion of the RSN model may create disruption in the league and create some FA bargains. As the team is in pretty good, but certainly not perfect shape "as is", I would guess that Falvey will be patient to see how that plays out.
  15. Johnny Ringo
    Jake should spend time in the Bat Cave. Love it as always Stu.
  16. Johnny Ringo
    To engage a local station or new network as a partner is a complication that is only a temporary solution at best. All these leagues will disintermediate cable and traditional broadcast ventures pretty darn soon in my view. Using the MLB app or something like it allows the Twins to reach the most viewers and ultimately to maximize revenues. The functionality would be immediate too. Rabbit ears? C'mon. That is something idiosyncratic to that market or just a gimmick.
  17. Johnny Ringo
    I am sure that Randy is a nice man but he had a 5 plus ERA in 126 innings in AAA last year. Unlucky? Uh, no. His 1.7 WHIP suggests that he should go to Vegas. I am not sure the word dead is subject to gradation but nothing is deader than that money.
  18. Johnny Ringo
    By their roster move with Celestino, I would be shocked if they parted ways with Alcala. I love Nick Gordon as a player but I suspect that he is the odd man out with the ascent of Willi Castro. I am sure (hopeful) he will catch on elsewhere.
  19. Johnny Ringo
    since former Twin Roy Smalley was given the Lifetime Achievement, Hair award in 2017. To quote the great Kenny Bania, " That's gold, Jerry. Gold."
  20. Johnny Ringo
    Lets put it this way. I am sure the FO would gladly shred this contract if they could. But hey, you make omelets and you are going to break eggs. I am not sure how Fan Graphs derives $7.6 worth of 2023 value from him as he had negative WAR for the season. I agree with Miracleb; moving Vasquez is an academic question. No one will take that contract unless the Twins eat all or most of it which defeats the purpose. Sanchez played for $1 million last year. Would I rather have Sanchez and $9 million for the next two years to sign Gray? Yes, I would.
  21. Johnny Ringo
    Gray will no doubt receive a QO. Unless the retrenchment of the Mets and Padres triggers a significant free agency bear market (low probability, owners just can't help themselves), he will certainly decline it. Even if he is semi-serious about retirement, a contract affords him a powerful option. His agent certainly will make that point. If the payroll is $30 million lower, Kepler and Polanco are luxuries that you can't afford if you want those luxuries at all. Can they be parlayed separately or together into pitching help? I don't know but I would certainly make the calls. I would try to flip the Vasquez contract but that may be a fool's errand. He is a replacement player earning $10 million per. The off-season activity from the Twins may seem muted for monetary reasons but the good news is that the team looks fierce, as is, going into 2024. I hope that I am surprised positively and the FO makes more noise than I expect. The Twins' open letter to fans suggests that ownerships gets that people will support a winner. I have spent a lot of time at Target Field and the place was unrecognizable to me in October. The dissonance was sublime.
  22. Johnny Ringo
    Hope for the best, plan for the worst.
  23. Johnny Ringo
    The core for sustained playoff success is certainly there for 2024 and beyond . The implosion of the BSN empire is a wild-card for off-season FO activity. One would have to think the 2024 budget is lower than 2023's. (Please don't hit me with the Pohlad pocket protector label. Reality is reality.) But the whole league may be dealing with a financial reckoning. The RSN issue is hitting many teams. The drunken sailor Mets and Padres are re-trenching. (I would think being a minority partner of the Padres makes the cool parking space look like a really bad idea right now.) So maybe a little less money is OK. Kepler and Polanco are redundant budget savers. Would I rather have Julien, Martin or Lee and $10 million over Polanco? Yes I would. $10 million helps replace Gray. I love Jorge but bad legs don't age well. I was really encouraged by Rocco this year. Forever I have been a Baldelli neutralist, but I thought he managed nearly flawlessly in the playoffs. Frankly, I could of done without the Buxton AB which seemed like a participation ribbon, but that's nitpicking. (I am a huge Buxton fan but he hadn't faced a MLB pitch in two months.) Rocco and Tingler seemed to have found a groove. But, the great news is that people care again about the Twins. Being at Target Field last week was amazing. I hope to see everyone there next October.
  24. Johnny Ringo
    To your point: Ryan Jeffers 2023 WAR 3.3 Christian Vasquez 2023 WAR -.3 So, no. I didn't find it strange at all.
  25. Johnny Ringo
    To paraphrase Jay McInerney, AK is the party guest that is always on his way but never arrives. If the FO were to ask my opinion (I am planning my day assuming they won't), I would do the following in the off-season (assuming the budget at best is not going down): --Exercise the Kepler and Polanco options and trade them both. Let Maeda walk. Retain Castro; --Plan that Lewis, Martin or Lee is my CF. One of these three plays third; --Sign a prototypical big-bobbing RH first baseman. Kirilloff is a pedestrian fielder and an uninspiring power source; --Populate the corner OF spots with Wallner, Larnach, Rodriguez or AK; --Assuming Gray is not re-signed, the 1B signing is payroll neutral. --This gives you $20 million to sign a SP (coming from the Kepler, Polanco savings). I would attempt to re-up Sonny but with that money and this team, lots of people would suddenly care. That looks pretty solid to me. Lets play ball.
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