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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    I say pass. We're talking 6-8 starts max at this point, not 15-20. Yes, our depth is being tested but so far the young guys are responding to the call. Who has more upside, Rich Hill or David Festa? Rich Hill or Zebby Matthews? Lopez & Ober are locks, SWR should be as well, having stepped up and delivered in the back of the rotation. I'd rather roll with Festa and one of either Matthews or Varland until Paddack comes back. (Last I checked, Paddack wasn't out for the season, right?) If it was June and we had 2 starters down and the rookies were looking wobbly, I'd be more interested but we're talking about hoping that Ancient Rich Hill has enough gas and guile left to fool people for 6-8 starts over a Varland or Matthews that can throw 97 mph. Roll with the young kids.
  2. jmlease1
    Maybe Lewis or Raya. But more likely they fall back on Boushley, Henriquez, or even Dobnak if they have to keep going through starters and no one comes back. It's going to be a problem if Varland totally bombs or someone else gets hurt before Paddack comes back, but there aren't very many teams that aren't going to have a problem if they're on their 10th or 11th choice for the rotation. Twins are a little tight right now because of Ryan's injury, but they've still had 106 out of 119 starts made by 5 guys.
  3. jmlease1
    Winder looking comfortable throwing 2 innings is a great development. You have to expect that the Twins will try and protect some of these young starters so having a reliever who can bridge things to the late innings is important. Winder and Sands are both doing better this year and look like solid middle relief fits.
  4. jmlease1
    Matthews did great. Love seeing that kind of performance from a rookie. He's got some things to work on, but the platform to build from is strong: he was locating pretty well, showed he had the stuff to miss bats in the zone, and got the job done. Nice to see the offense come out in force to support the rookie too. scoring runs in 6 out of the 8 innings the bats went up is impressive. Everybody except Santana had a hit, and Carlos drew 2 walks. Thought Miranda looked good at the plate in particular, and it'll be great if he's back to slashing the ball all over. Great win; Twins needed to win this series after the split with Cleveland. Here's hoping they get the sweep!
  5. jmlease1
    Seriously. It's not like the whole team are rookies. Might be tougher with a bunch of young starters, but it's doable. (and encouraging for the future) Festa's gotten better after a wobbly first 2 outings to be plenty competitive in his next 4. SWR has been quality (I'll take the 110 ERA+ all day) and for those expecting him to fall apart: his ERA and FIP are almost identical, so to paraphrase Denny Green "He is who we thought he was!" And I'm not mad about Varland or Matthews as being the next set of reinforcement. Much better than most seasons. It sucks to lose Joe Ryan, who was having a good season, but we're not chucking out no-hopers here.
  6. jmlease1
    yes, imagine how great it would look if the front office never missed on a single draft pick and no one ever got hurt. This is, of course, a record that no team has now, nor has ever had. (also? Prato was a 7th round pick who is in AAA. I mean, come on. We're gonna take a poke at the FO for not turning a 7th round pick into MLB gold?)
  7. jmlease1
    Their ability to find pitchers with growth potential has been an excellent use of the later rounds of the draft. You can see a lot of obvious markers for why this is working: these guys at smaller collegiate programs might not have had that much exposure to elite training resources and/or coaching. they have measurables that allow for projection. But the twins are also doing it in volume: they're not just drafting 1-2 of these kinds of college pitchers per draft, they're getting 4-5 of these guys, so that when they miss on one they still have more outs. Some of these guys are going to struggle if/when they reach MLB, but I'd rather rely on a stream of young pitchers rising up through the minors to move into the rotation than throwing $8-12M on mediocre veteran 5th starters that are subject to sunk cost fallacies if they flame out. there seems to be a fairly good balance of risk/reward on the picks they're making. It'll be interesting to see if other teams start adopting this strategy and if the twins will still be able to sustain development once there's more competition?
  8. jmlease1
    Totally get it. I think my point was more that you can reasonably put someone as crazy talented as Soto 8th...and that's awesome. He's a huge upside pitcher and in many years over the past 20 would have been top 4 without having really done anything yet.
  9. jmlease1
    Lot of good news in this report. Culpepper and DeBarge has good starts to their careers in Ft. Myers; early days but nice to see them look comfortable and produce at Ft. Myers out the gate. (passing the Lemon Test as Gleeman like to say) Schobel has had a tough season so it's good to see him have a good run. He's hit a bit of a wall in AA, and it really is a level where guys can flame out against top competition. But he jumped up fast, so maybe with a little time and development he can get back on track. Really happy to see Raya and Lewis go 6 and have excellent starts. Bummer about Keaschall needing TJ. I know it's not as bad for position players and the recovery time is quite a bit less, but he's really been putting together a great season and had risen in the prospect rankings. Hope it's not a trend.
  10. jmlease1
    That's a pretty fun list! Soto is incredibly talented and you have him 8th...and I can't say that you're definitely wrong. (Personally, I have to drop Prielipp down the rankings until he has something resembling a healthy season, but I recognize the talent) Twins have done a good job of drafting enough pitchers with skills they could develop in the later rounds to put a volume of pitchers into the organization where guys can emerge. The competition level to move up in the ranks for the Twins is higher now, and it sure seems like fewer guys are moving up a level on scholarship.
  11. jmlease1
    An excellent win. I love beating KC and they're certainly not going away this year. freakin' Bobby Witt Jr is a beast. Isbel has been meh offensively...but not against the twins! (If it makes anyone feel better, he's beaten up on St. L, AZ, Cle, NYY as well) Singer is having an excellent season and just laid waste to Chicago over his last 3 starts, so it was great to hammer him and give Pablo a solid lead to work with. I was a little nervous after he gave up runs in each of the first two innings. Lewis and Wallner are carrying the offense right now. Hopefully they can keep it up while other guys get healthy and/or fight their way out of slumps. (encouraging signs from Kepler with 2 hits last night?) Starting the series with a win is great. Lot easier to win the series that way!
  12. jmlease1
    And Polanco has put up an 88 OPS+ and a 0.5 bWAR, and has been hurt this season. For comparison, Ed Julien has basically done the same production in 100 fewer ABs and was sent down. This may have been why Polanco had much lower trade value than we Twins fans had thought/hoped this offseason. Gonzalez had a modest improvement this season in high A, but has also dealt with injuries which may have hampered his power production. He did ok as a 20-year old in high A, but has things to work on.
  13. jmlease1
    Tough loss. SWR pitched quite well, normally a couple of solo shots aren't going to hurt you much. He did a nice job of being around the zone and it got him some extra strikes. Offense just wasn't going. The Jeffers out at 3B really hurt, but it was a difficult read and Kwan is an excellent defender and made the play with a perfect throw. Too bad, because bases loaded and zero outs is pretty different than first & second and 1 out. A little more offense and we would have stolen that one. Shame to waste such a good pitching performance. Nice job by Winder as well in finishing the game off and letting the rest of the bullpen get the day off. Sure would be nice if he can be a 2 inning guy on a consistent basis; I feel good about the bullpen even with the injuries, but having a guy who can give 2 good innings when a starter only goes 4-5 is sort of what's been missing here. Fewer games where you need 4 relievers to finish it out helps keep everyone fresh and ensures you have one of your best arms available
  14. jmlease1
    It's going to see how Severino finishes the season. He's in a slump right now, but if he can pull himself out of it and finish August strong then he'll be giving himself a chance to earn a job next season. I think he's been more than a 1-month guy (he had a very good July as well) but he need to not let his season look like a bell curve. Kirilloff's star is awfully tarnished at this point. A switch-hitting 1B with good power potential and a decent eye at the plate could play up if he can make enough contact and continue to develop defensively. I certainly like him as a depth option for sure.
  15. jmlease1
    Hard to complain about sweeping a doubleheader (although clearly there are plenty around here who are; why so mad when we win?). Thought it was a balk, but some of the replays didn't show it well. A little silly for the manager to lose his mind on that call, kinda felt like a guy in the middle of a losing streak just trying to spark his team as much as anything. You're not going to change the umpire's mind on that one. It was a nice insurance run, but hardly game-altering, either. Wallner is absolutely crushing it right now, and it's great to see. Twins have needed some thump from the left side and Wallner is absolutely bringing it. When he's locked in he's very very dangerous. Sands and Thielbar did a great job getting the game to the 9th. Feels a little strange to see Thielbar go 2 innings, but he was so efficient it wasn't a problem and they needed someone to pick up an extra inning with the doubleheader. Excellent work by the bullpen to close down the game, Richards did well too. Only 47 pitches to get through 4 1/3, that's impressive.
  16. jmlease1
    Ober is having an excellent year, and seems to have really figured it out. (He has to have tipped his pitches against KC right?) I like using Game Score as a way to evaluate a starter, and Ober has 12 of his 22 with a Game Score of 60 or better, only 4 with a Game Score under 40. He's really giving the Twins a great chance to win when he takes the hill. Excellent way to start a doubleheader and a series!
  17. jmlease1
    It's going to be a challenge. The incentive for Lewis to sign a long-term deal is to lock in guaranteed money against the risk of injury, insuring that he gets generational wealth even if he has another catastrophic injury. A lot of players would do that deal, especially knowing that even if they bet wrong and stay healthy and productive the whole time, there's almost certainly another big deal available. But Royce Lewis has as much confidence and faith in himself as any player I've ever seen. Might be harder for him to not bet on himself, you know? That said, he's also the sort of player that isn't going to want to bounce around to different clubs and feel like a mercenary. I think he'd rather be a Twins legend. Still doesn't mean he's going to take significant discounts, though.
  18. jmlease1
    It's going to be Lee or Martin when Farmer is done with his rehab assignment (unless someone else gets dinged and is sent to IL). This front office is exceptionally reticent to lose control of a player they think could be an asset or even move on from sunk costs. They got burned hard by not having enough depth a few years ago and seem to have said to themselves that they'll never end up like that again. It's made them a little more risk-adverse than I think they should be, but at the same time the injuries do keep flowing. Moving on from sunk costs is something most franchises struggle with, i think, but teams with smaller payrolls tend to have it worse. we're always chasing getting value out of a guy, in part because there might not be any money in the self-imposed team budget to get a replacement if the contingency plan doesn't work. I also would argue the generally risk-adverse nature of this front office comes into play here too, preferring to bank on a veteran finding their form over a younger player figuring it out for the first time.
  19. jmlease1
    Fun night for the pitching pipeline. Good to see Matthews have a strong outing. I'll be very happy if he finishes the season in AAA strong and has people thinking about him for the rotation next season, even if I think it's most likely that he starts the season in AAA. Lewis is looking healthy, which is the most important thing, but having positive results that make him look like the guy we got hyped about last season is excellent. Looking forward to him finishing strong as well. Tanner Hall is interesting, and doing ok in his first professional season. The last 2 starts have been quite good, and if he can show that kind of consistency, he'll move up quickly. I love a pitcher with an elite changeup, and if he's figuring out his command/control issues from earlier in the season, he's got some possibilities. Especially if the twins are able to add a little more velocity to his fastball along the way... I feel like SWR has done enough to have the inside track for a rotation job next season (with the assumption that Lopez, Ryan, Ober, and Paddack are the presumptives on the other 4 slots), which could potentially give us a rotation in AAA featuring Festa, Varland, Matthews, Lewis. And make it unnecessary to throw money at a journeyman veteran 5th starter type and have options in AAA that have real futures as the call-ups against injury. I've been feeling better about our starting options in AAA every year lately, which is relatively new and fun. Kinda cool to go from hoping 1-2 guys might be able to do something to feeling good about 1-2 guys, to feeling good about 3 or more...
  20. jmlease1
    haven't had the opportunity, but isn't this the pure scouting fallacy? You've watched him several times, but at this point he's started 9 games and made 15 total appearances for 46 2/3 innings. If 2 of the starts you saw were 6/20 & 6/26, your impression isn't going to be very good I suspect. If you watched his last 2 starts, I suspect you'd be more impressed. It's why the overall stats have to be included. When I think of a guy who doesn't miss enough bats, those guys can't hunt Ks. It sounds like his issue is more about commanding his pitches (the walk rate and HBP numbers are good indicators there) so that when he throws the change or slider with good break guys are more likely to chase it, while keeping a few more runners off the basepaths. Looking at his pitch counts, you can see he's had those type of games where he's racking up 70 pitches in 3 innings, which again goes to his command & control questions. He seems like an interesting prospect who is doing ok in A-ball in his first professional season.
  21. jmlease1
    Terrific start by Morris who is having a very good season. It's great to see him get deep into a game like that too. A 0.1 HR/9 rate is unsustainable for anyone, but he's always been good at keeping the ball in the yard, which may serve him well as he rises in the minors. He's only got 10 starts at AA, so let's maybe pump the brakes a little before bumping him up to MLB, but I could see him getting a late call-up to AAA this season. He almost certainly starts there next year, I'd think. AAA rotation next season should be pretty strong and provide that starting pitching depth effectively with Morris, Matthews, and either SWR or Festa likely starting the season there, not to mention Cory Lewis still coming along and Marco Raya. There's been a lot of jokes about the twins "pitching pipeline"...but it's starting to show out, I'd say.
  22. jmlease1
    11.8 K/9 suggests that he is missing some bats out there.
  23. jmlease1
    as Hawk noted on the broadcast, it's probably the first time that's ever happened to Larnach...and will never happen again. It wasn't good, but I'm also pretty sure he was extremely embarrassed and mad at himself over it. If he makes that kind of a baserunning botch again, then we can get mad at him. This one you can laugh it off. ("Nice baserunning, Trev: don't ever effing do it again.")
  24. jmlease1
    It's just so hard to know with relievers in the minors whether they can keep translating as they move up the ladder. Grace is doing terrific this season in results, but the underlying peripherals are a little concerning: k/9 is way down this season and he still walks guys. The WHIP is excellent, but it wouldn't take much to change that. He's 24 as a reliever in AA. I thought Cody Laweryson was going to be a real relief prospect for the Twins in 2022 and a few of us around here got pretty hyped about him. He struggled in Saint Paul in 2023 and got demoted back to AA this year and suddenly looks like he's going nowhere. If Regi Grace finishes the season strong and stays healthy, he will likely get a chance in AAA next season, but who knows if he's got the chops to make it to MLB. It's a tough road for minor league relievers i think.
  25. jmlease1
    It's great to see Buck playing in CF and hitting so well. He's a key player for the Twins and one of the guys who has an elite ceiling, and you need those guys to contend. He's clearly he trying to pick his moments for when to unleash his top-end speed and do it when it counts to keep himself on the field through the long grind. Fine by me, especially because he's shown that he can do it, throw it into 3rd gear rounding 1B to leg out a double. The knee surgery in the off-season clearly has worked and cleaned up the problem that kept giving him pain last season, and they've managed his workload pretty well. It would be really exciting if he can get through this season like this, and then NOT need any kind of surgery in the offseason. Sometimes that's the cascading effect for a player who had a lot of injuries earlier in their career for staying healthy later: getting that healthy season with no off-season surgery so they can keep building on what they have and not have to start over again. Here's hoping. The defense may not be back to the elite levels it was, but it's still plenty good out there and he's having an excellent season overall after a slower start.
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