jmlease1

Agreed. Donovan is a useful player, but I don't see him as being a particularly good fit for the Twins. He put up fine defensive stats in his rookie season as a utility guy, but wasn't impressive as a 2B/LF. He's a good hitter, but while he might be aesthetically more pleasing than Wallner, he seems unlikely to be better at the plate in terms of production. (Wallner and Donovan have had nearly identical bWAR over the past 2 seasons combined...but that's a counting stat and Donovan has gotten a lot more opportunity) If he were a RH hitter, this might be interesting but as is we'd essentially be swapping in a less flexible super-utility guy who is a more consistent hitter. It doesn't make them younger, it doesn't solve the need for improved RH thump, and it might not really improve them defensively...it just might make them a little cheaper if they deal Castro well? Considering what they might need to give up, I'm unenthusiastic. Based on last season does Donovan look like a significant upgrade on Larnach in LF? because that's what we might be landing on here, and even while dealing with a turf toe issue Larnach was decent. Pass.

I'm really bummed about Kirilloff. Just one of the sweetest swings we've seen, and every time he'd get on a roll he'd get bit with another injury. And every time an injury cropped up on him his production went into the tank. It's not a surprise that his production went down, considering the injuries he was dealing with: wrist problems are a huge issue for hitter, and so are back problems. Kirilloff was at his best when he was making good, hard, consistent contact, ripping line drives around the stadium. And he just couldn't do it when hampered by injuries. It sucks. Hopefully he can get his back rehabbed effectively and live a pain-free life again. I expect he'll be done with baseball as a player, but maybe there will still be something for him in the game as a coach or something. he always seemed very smart about his swing so it'd be nice if he could find a path as a hitting instructor. I really was hoping that after 2023 he could have built on that solid effort. Even after we signed Santana, I thought he would make a good platoon partner and could improve defensively with a veteran like that tutoring him. His body betrayed him, and it sucks. Wish him a lot of luck. Seemed like a good dude. I'll definitely remember him for that 2018 season when he obliterated the minors and showed what a healthy AK could do.

I'm baffled by the idea that the Twins have somehow disrespected Randy Dobnak. he wasn't healthy for multiple seasons, and the last 2 when he has been healthy, he hasn't been impressive in AAA and given anyone much of a reason to promote him. seems like a good dude, but the injuries really derailed his career. He was wise to sign the long-term contract he was offered, and hopefully he's made good investment and savings choices.

He was on a similar track to sands, who people were also excited about. Winder struggled to stay healthy and never really developed. Sands got healthy and showed he could handle the role as a reliever. That's kind of the way it goes: some that look good flame out, never stay healthy, never find success in a role. Sands has worked out, Winder didn't. Someone might give Winder a chance to make it as a reliever somewhere else, but I doubt anyone will be breaking down the door to give him a MLB contract. He could slide through waivers and give it one more shot in saint Paul. Not all that surprised he got dropped: he's 28, he's frequently injured, he's frequently very hittable, and has never been able to turn it up. I'm a little surprised at Severino, but he was just ok in Saint Paul at the plate and doesn't add much defensively. his ability to switch hit is intriguing, but he would need to really hit to have value since he adds little defensively and is really a 1B/DH at this point. Looks like the Twins think of him as a fringe player. All seems fine to me.

I do think Miranda can improve at 1B defensively; he basically never played it before MLB and was asked to fill in at the same time that he was really learning 3B still. (he played 2B more than anything in the minors) If there's a full healthy spring training to work on 1B? My struggle with Miranda is that his splits aren't better against LHP. Especially if he time-shares with Julien. He's been better against RHP and LHP. But the numbers are still relatively small, so hopefully that will improve? But I do still have a lot of hope for Miranda as a hitter and player

I was one of the skeptics. I thought they would overuse him and that he wouldn't hit enough to make him effective enough at 1B. They probably did expose him too much against RHP, but the defense made it worth doing, especially in the absence of a better option. He was more than worth the $5M and did a very nice job once he got out of that awful start. The defense really was excellent. A lot of times it can be hard to see how superior defense impacts at 1B, but you could really see it with Santana. I'd be interested in bringing him back again...but the exposure issue might be a bigger concern since Time is Undefeated, and the self-imposed payroll limits make even $5M tight. But he had a great season defensively, and it was a pleasure to watch. He was so consistent that you were shocked if he didn't make a tough play. Definitely earned that GG. Congrats Carlos!

Pretty hard to list 2 guys in the top 5 Twins trade assets when they both have no-trade clauses. Pablo is the most viable, but dealing him would be waving the white flag of surrender. Since the Pohlads are selling, they won't care about that, but it sure would be gross. You'd think that it would also hurt the interest in buying because dumping Lopez would definitely tank ticket sales. Lewis had such a rough end to his season that it feels like you'd be selling low on him. It's not like he had a healthy season in 2023. Twins have a complicated path if they want to move a significant piece and shake up the core, because they appear to have no flexibility on payroll. You have a lot more options if you can take on payroll as part of a deal, especially when it includes younger, cheaper players going out. The self-imposed payroll limits take that off the table...or force a more complex scenario, involving moving players like Vazquez etc.

I think you're a lot further down on Lee than the rest of the league.

It's hard to see any of these as real trade candidates; the most likely are Jax & Duran, because a) relievers are the most fungible, and b) they're getting more expensive. But dealing either of them right now would almost look like surrender, because it would weaken the bullpen so severely it would be hard to look at it as a positive or having the capacity to be a weapon in the playoffs. Lee has significant upside still, is young and cheap, but after an injury and unimpressive debut, it's not exactly selling high. Wallner would be selling high, but would leave the team really needing Rodriguez to be ready immediately or the offense would be missing a critical element. Ober is a rotation stalwart; you'd have to be very convinced that Festa, Matthews, Lewis, etc are ready to perform at his level right soon or again...surrender. I'm sure some people want to deal Wallner because they can't stand his Ks and would rather dump him, but he's been incredibly productive and I want his LH thump in the lineup.

because he's turning 35 this month and has never really had a particularly standout season his whole career? He was pretty good this year, He was decent in 2015 in limited innings. But his career ERA+ is 101, his career FIP is 4.24. he gets Ks, but also gives up hits & walks: his WHIP this year of 1.261 is right in line with his career WHIP of 1.296. he's just not all that dominant and hasn't shown a high ceiling. he's been fine? But not really much better than say, Staumont, who no one will really miss. he's not bad or anything, just hard to see him as being worth tendering. I'd rather see Varland in that spot.

Max Kepler absolutely owning Bauer in 2019 is a truly delightful Twins memory. Always liked Kepler. His entire second half in 2023 could merit a place on this list, as he was great down the stretch and carried the team in August. It's too bad he wasn't able to find a way to consistently hit for power; his 2019 and 2023 seasons stick out pretty clearly as the years where he was able to mash. The rest of the time he was vaguely disappointing on offense while usually providing quality to excellent defense. The Cuddyer comp isn't that far off; Max was a much better defender (Max had much better range, Cuddy had a better arm, but not by a ton), but Cuddy was a more consistent offensive player. I think a lot of us thought we could expect Cuddyer's power production out of Kepler, especially after he had the big year in 2019, but he couldn't do it. Injuries in the past few seasons certainly played a part. A good but not great player, but you need guys like Kepler on your roster to support your stars, and if a couple of them have peak years at the same time maybe you can win a title. Someone will offer Kepler a contract, but I'm betting it's a 1-2 year deal to platoon in the corners, maybe DH a little against RHP.

It's an interesting proposal, and as much as I like Keaschall he makes a certain amount of sense to be the centerpiece of a deal like this because that's an area of strength for the Twins, so moving him doesn't blow a hole in another area (like dealing our top relievers would), and we also know that other teams were calling on him this year at the deadline, so it's not just us thinking he's a prize. Rushing would be a heck of a fit with Jeffers, so it makes sense to look at him too. we've also heard that there's some agreement around the league that vazquez is still seen as being valuable and it wouldn't have to be something where we have to send a significant prospect or eat a big chunk of his salary to move him...which has a lot of value with our self-imposed payroll limitations. adding Rushing while moving Vazquez makes it a lot easier to add the kind of LH reliever this team needs while strengthening the catcher position for years to come. Twins would have to add something to Keaschall to get it done, but it's an intriguing idea and I appreciate the creativity. It's also not living in fantasy land: there's real reason to believe that the Dodgers could be interested in a deal like this. Hard to make it happen, but I like the fact that this idea is thinking carefully about both sides of the trade equation.

I'm curious: do we know that the Twins count the Dobnak contract against their self-imposed payroll limitations? Do they only count the 26-man roster, do they count the whole 40-man roster, are they counting the signing bonuses for the drafted players against the MLB "payroll"? Just how cheap are the cheap-ass Pohlads? :P I'm not as down on Miranda as a potential 1B than others: he seems like a guy who can improve defensively there, and Julien is another player who could (maybe should?) get time there, but there does seem to be some need for another bat on this roster. not sure we'll get one without dealing Castro, Vazquez, or Paddack. Buxton and Correa aren't getting traded, no matter how much some people want their contracts and injury histories shot into the sun. I would hope after struggling mightily to find reliable top of the rotation starting pitching we wouldn't move Pablo, who is everything we could ask for in a staff ace: talented, effective, smart AF, great leader & mentor, seems like an incredibly nice dude and good person, and with a reasonable contract for someone of that ability. I would move either Paddack or Vazquez (or both), if I thought the ownership wouldn't just pocket the savings. (My trust levels are low after the recent debacles and the Pohlads selling the team make me even more skeptical that they wouldn't be willing to grab an additional $5-10M in savings to line their pockets if it looks like the sale isn't going to get completed quickly). Paddack is acceptable as a 5th starter, but there's very limited upside, IMHO. With SWR having done well in 2024, and Festa, Matthews, Lewis, Raya, Adams, Morris, and Nowlin waiting in the wings (not to mention CJ Culpepper and Ohl lurking a little further back) I'm more willing to roll with the young guys. Vazquez is still a quality defender, but he's probably no longer a superior one and since age is undefeated he could slip fast. he's also unlikely at 34 to have any kind of a renaissance as a hitter: he's got 2+ seasons now of being this kind of bad hitter (low average, low walks, no power). the defense is good enough to be a reasonable backup, especially with so few catchers who can hit in MLB, but if someone will take him I would move on this. If we moved both Paddack and Vazquez (and don't have to count Dobnak's contract against the overall self-imposed payroll limit, that would free up $15M to use on a LH reliever and a 1B/OF/DH bat. Might put us in a pretty solid position, if we don't botch the FA signings.

I think it's Stewart & Topa, let Tonkin go. Stewart & Topa both have the same problem: injury. Which is why they're cheap. But with Sands and Alcala having good seasons last year the Twins are in a position where they don't need to rely on having both of these guys all season for high leverage roles. They'd be more like veteran depth where if they're healthy can contribute to an excellent bullpen and if they're not they're on the IL and we move along. Both have higher upside than Tonkin, but are higher risk due to injury. Tonkin is decent, but has never shown that he should be counted on to be anything more than a middle relief option. he's Just Another Guy as a reliever, one of many that float around the league for 5-10 years and one year put up at ERA+ of 115 and the next might be down around 90. he's also going to be 35 for the 2025 season. Pass and as many have said: put the money saved towards the best LH reliever they can find, so we're not totally reliant on Funderburk, Moran, Headrick, etc I like a bullpen of Duran, Jax, Sands, Alcala, Stewart/Topa (if I presume only one will be healthy at a time, I'm less likely to be disappointed), Varland, LHP To Be Named Later, and Funderburk. If Funderburk starts the season in AAA because both Stewart and Topa start the season healthy and ready? Oh, darn.

Ooof, that's a tough one. Having to retire at 27 I'm sure is not what he wanted to do, but the grind of constant rehab from injury I'm sure took a lot of the fun and enjoyment out of playing baseball for him. I'm bummed. I loved his swing, and he seemed like a decent guy. Having seen what was possible the rare times he was truly healthy...I couldn't quit on him. I'm guessing this last season where things got derailed again with now a back injury made him ready to walk away. Wonder if the Twins communicated that they didn't intend to tender him and he chose this rather than try and start over somewhere else? Doesn't seem crazy. Good luck, AK. Sometimes injuries win.

Brooks Lee doesn't project as a 1B/DH. He was a quality defender last season for the Twins, holding his own at SS and looking quite good at 3B (arguably his best position). but maybe let's not panic too much about Brooks Lee's sprint speed at 23 coming off a back injury in only 50 MLB games. the running game is much more complicated than sprint speed anyways: Castro is pretty fast, but wasn't actually a very good base stealer. Buxton is excellent at it, but the team is (not unreasonably) reluctant to let him run much. Julien is a fine base stealer, but hasn't really gotten the green light. As a team, the Twins have chosen not to explore this, maybe because they think everyone is too slow, maybe because they're risk-adverse on it. But there's opportunity for them to do more, regardless of just sprint speed.

I suspect that in the interest of resting Buxton etc if Emma were the "4th" OF he'd be getting plenty of playing time. Wallner, Larnach, and Buxton would see more time at DH, Castro would play less in the OF, etc. Performance and injuries have a way of shaking these things out fairly well. If the Twins don't sign a veteran, there will be an opportunity for Rodriguez to push his way onto this roster. I'm good with it.

Yeah, not a hard call at all on tendering. Must offer him arbitration. Must. sadly, we shouldn't be having a serious conversation about whether or not to trade him with multiple years of team control and elite stuff in his arsenal, but the self-imposed payroll limits of the Pohlad Family somehow makes it a legit question. Which is horrible. He's an excellent pitcher and while 2024 wasn't as dominant as he's been in the previous 2 seasons, it's much more likely that's a result of the small sample sizes relievers often deal with rather than any serious decline. The bullpen would be substantially weaker without him and while Jax is more than capable of being the "closer", we're much better off having 2 of these guys

I'm baffled that people would be jumping on selling off Wallner who has been one of the Twins best players the last two seasons. Despite the bad start he finished the season with a 149 OPS+ and was one of the only LH bats we had that could be counted on to consistently punish RHP. He's been an excellent corner OF, and i can't support the idea of trading him because people don't like the style.

huge fan of Emma. He can absolutely hit and the ball explodes off his bat. It will be interesting to see if he needs to add more aggression to his approach at the plate to keep from ending up in too many 2-strike counts and make sure he's giving his bat the best opportunity to play up, but he's oozing talent. Assuming Carlos Santana is not back (due to self-imposed payroll limitations) and they still have enough confidence in Julien to roll with him at the start of the season, there's really only 1-2 spots for position players available. One would have to be for a backup CF; would the Twins be ready to roll with Emma in that spot, or will they prefer to have someone with more defensive chops? Helman could get a chance, Kiersey could be seen as an option (and if they roll with Kiersey, it's hard to see them keeping another LH OF bat out the gate, especially one with options and little time in AAA). Austin Martin was disappointing defensively and unimpressive at the plate, but works from the right side of the plate and does bring some speed and experience. I suspect Emma starts in AAA, but I'd love for him to crush in spring training and force the Twins hand. he's also never had trouble facing LHP, so maybe they'll be less scared of the platoon disadvantage in his case. Health is the only thing potentially holding him back, and my god I am sick of talking about health in relation to our best prospects!

It's the toughest question for me. The payroll side of things shouldn't be an issue for a player likely to make less than $2M...but with the Twins self-imposed limitations, it is. The difference between carrying Kirilloff and not, could mean signing the LH reliever they need. But the bigger issue is simply Kirilloff's inability to stay healthy. It's really hard to count on him as a player, and when he picks up a knock it's tended to show in his hitting. 2023 Kirilloff was actually pretty dang good as a hitter (less so defensively) and if we could get that version of him for 120 games, I'd be more enthusiastic. But it's so hard to know what we're going to get with him, and his struggles with LH pitchers limits him as well. I think the answer is yes, tender him. I think there's still enough of an asset in there that we shouldn't let him go for nothing...but I can't argue too hard with the people who think it's just not worth it any longer and that he's a sunk cost at this point who is never going to be both healthy and successful enough to keep giving a roster spot to.

That's my point, though: he's only played 6 games at AA and hasn't even turned 20 yet. Expecting him to make a big impact in MLB in 2025 might be premature. I think his ceiling is immense and I'm happy to be aggressive in promoting him (as the Twins have been so far), but he's much more likely to be an impact bat in 2026 in MLB, which would still be in his age-21 season. 21! That would be right in line with Hall of Famer Joe Mauer's development. Kala'i Rosario could be a more impactful bat in 2025. It's not a knock on Jenkins at all, I think he's a spectacular prospect and will have more impact in the end than any other player currently in our minor league system. I'm just trying to be a little more realistic about when that's likely to start. And if he's in MLB at 21, then it's an unqualified success. I love Keaschall as well, but I expect him to be more advanced having played 3 years of college. His power was down a little in AA, and I expect the elbow injury had a fair bit to do with that. I expect great things from him the way he looked last season, but it might take a little time for him to get back in the groove, and while he may be ready for spring training...he may not. Recovery is what it is. If he hadn't had a significant surgery, I'd be more optimistic about his chances to have a big impact in 2025. The following season seems more likely to me? It will also be very interesting to see where he lands for a position: the elbow limited his time in the field last season for sure. But he's shown interesting positional flexibility; could he be a "10th starter" in 2026 who hits the snot out of the ball wherever he plays and puts up solid defense at 3-4 positions? Oh darn...

First off, Walker Jenkins did not continue to hit for power when he got to AA, nor did he handle advanced pitching particularly well. He's an awesome prospect and I'm not the least bit concerned about him, but he put up an OPS of .450 in AA with 1 XBH. He also still still hasn't turned 20 yet, so again: not worried. But I don't expect him to have a big impact on the Twins in 2025: that's going to happen in 2026. He's going to be back in AA this season, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if he's in AAA at midseason. But I suspect he's going to need a little time and work in the high minors to adjust to better pitching. Hardly a crime, considering he's going to be 20. Keaschall might be an option, but I'm a little more skeptical until we see how he's recovered from the TJ. Yes, it's not as significant for hitters as it is for pitchers, but it's still a substantial surgery. Without the injury, I would have said we'd see him for sure in 2025, but he may have been set back a little because of it. Still a great prospect. Emma is the one who should be the impact player in 2025. If he can stay healthy. He looks 100% ready to tackle advanced pitching, has a vicious swing and a disciplined approach, is a solid fielder and we could use his LH power bat. Kepler will be gone and while I would expect Wallner and Larnach to get the first shot in the corners, Larnach's injury history suggests that Emma will get a chance to come in and prove his quality. I'm excited to see what he does.

They also liked the "closer" role as it evolved into 1 inning, 9th inning guy, in a save situation because it maximized their value on the market, because teams were substantially over-paying players for the save stat. So a lot of that also had to do with money. But the league as a whole has (correctly) gotten away from treating their "closer" as a 9th inning save guy to going back to the classic fireman role where the best reliever slams the door on the heart on the other teams lineup regardless of whether it's the 7th, 8th, or 9th inning. Which actually isn't a new strategy at all, more a repudiation of what developed in the 90's.

It will be very interesting to see how Moran pitches when he's back on the mound and when he actually starts really throwing. not unusual for pitchers to throw even harder after the procedure, but the real (only?) issue for Moran is whether he can locate his stuff consistently enough. Love his changeup. he's always going to walk some guys, but he also has the stuff where it doesn't necessarily matter that much if he puts a couple of guys on from time to time. A reliever can be a bit wilder than a starter and still be very effective when they have K-rates like Moran. Really hope he comes back in good shape.