jmlease1

Well, these comments are everything I feared when they made the signing: the veteran player who might be washed getting the PT rather than the younger player with upside. I hope this is just the manager trying to be positive about his player in public, but unless they've mechanically fixed something significant with France and he's healthy, the odds strongly favor Miranda being the better hitter, and since neither player is strong defensively, the Twins should be starting the better hitter. I hope France surprises me, but unless there's something medical that the Twins aren't talking about related to Miranda, then it's absolutely incomprehensible to me that they might bury him on the bench in favor of effing Ty France. I suppose it's possible they see Miranda as the primary DH, but dropping him from the infield before he turns 27 in favor of a guy who is older, no better of a defender, and on a make-good contract also seems ridiculous.

I should really go back and see how many of the people that are moving Lewis around the field to different positions are the same ones mad at the Twins for not letting Jax start or suggesting that Duran will leave because the Twins moved him into the bullpen and prevented these players from playing their "preferred" positions and "costing them money"...

He's an elite reliever. No one is signing him to be a starter at this point because a) he's an elite reliever, and b) the same injury concerns that led the Twins to move him into the bullpen in the first place still apply. Would flunking out as a starter for 1-3 seasons before moving to the bullpen have improved his career prospects? (If he's unsuccessful/injured for those seasons, the answer is a flat no) I don't understand this projection that Duran is mad that the Twins moved him into the bullpen and wants out because he supposedly thinks he should have been given the chance to stay a starter and the big bad Twins made him relieve and ruined his life, so he wants to get away from here. There's literally no evidence for this.

There's just no evidence on this stuff. It's all people reading what they want to see, usually because they have a bias baked in. Let's take this in order: the starter issue. Would you rather be an injured starter who never lasts in MLB or a great reliever? We've never heard anything from Duran that suggests he thinks he got screwed by moving to the bullpen. The "closer" issue: since Baldelli has never named a closer, claiming that Duran has been a closer for 3 years is a stretch. In Duran's first season, Pagan finished more games and had more saves. Duran was far and away the best reliever that year, but was he the "closer"? year 2: he's the best reliever in the 'pen, had the most saves, finished the most games. While never named the "closer", he fits here, though he still had 20% of his appearances before the 9th inning. year 3: not the best reliever in the Twins bullpen (Jax was better by basically ever measure) but did lead the team in saves. Increased the amount of times he entered before the 9th to 25%. Reasonable pick as "closer", but the role was less defined with Duran dealing with injury again, Jax pitching incredibly well, and Sands coming on. So he's the closer for more like 1 1/2 season rather than 3? Going from being a "closer" to "high leverage reliever" being an insult. Considering the increasing numbers of teams who look at their best relievers as being something more than a 9th inning save situation only pitcher, being more of a fireman than a 1990's style closer isn't an insult, nor does it harm his earning potential. He's a dominant relief pitcher, and he's going to get paid. He'll have more value and more suitors coming for him if he keeps showing he doesn't need to be a 9th inning save situation only guy. we've never heard anything form Duran about wanting to leave, so why exactly are you predicting that as soon as he can leave he's gone? because YOU don't like the way the Twins run their bullpen. Not because Duran is mad about it. He seems fine. The trick for the twins is which elite reliever gets extended past their arbitration: Jax or Duran? Both can be kept this season and next, but going into their last season of arbitration if they haven't been extended one will probably be traded for value, but not because they're trying to force their way out.

I hated the Ty France signing initially. I hate it a little less with him not having a guaranteed contract. And at $1M, that's barely above minimum salary these days. But I'd still much rather have Miranda getting most of the time at 1B. No, his defense will not impress, but he's hardly a dog out there, and when he's healthy he can hit. And this lineup needs his offense. he's well suited to the middle of the lineup, with good contact skills. Ty France as insurance against Miranda's health? ok. Ty France, maybe recovered from a heel injury, and hitting for some power again on a cheap contract as a backup/DH? ok. Ty France as the starting 1B because he's got 6 years in MLB to Miranda's 3? eff no. Ty France battling Julien and Martin for a spot on the 26-man? I guess? Ty France getting the job on scholarship because he's a veteran and Martin & Julien have options? eff no. For me, France need to show he's healthy and can be better than a league average hitter to get a spot. Otherwise, what's the point?

the Cave comp is just weird, but also demonstrably wrong. Julien had an OPS+ of 130 in 2023. Cave has never gotten close to that. Julien has a career bWAR of 2.5 (including his bad sophomore slump); Cave has a career bWAR of 1.7 in 5 more seasons. I think RoY votes do mean something, unless you believe there simply weren't 7 good AL rookies in 2023, which if that's the case then I really can't help you. I really don't understand the Julien hate. It's as if people want him to be bad so they can point at the people in the organization they don't like/want fire and say "see!!! I told you!!!" It's as if you need him to be bad because you don't like the way he plays? He might not bounce back, but the talent is there. I'm rooting for him to crush it. That's way more fun than trashing one of our own.

you're kidding right? you don't think he was even average in 2023? so everyone who voted for him for AL Rookie of the Year (he know he finished 7th, right?) was just wrong? Maybe he'll never be good again, but pretending Ed Julien has never been good in MLB is borderline crazy

I think the pre and post game shows are not well designed for the kinds of people who come to Twins Daily to rant and rave about the Twins and baseball. But what they are better at is bringing in more casual fans, and providing additional content to generate interest in the team. Beyond that, it's a more pleasant viewing experience if you tune in 10 minutes early and aren't greeted with a "stay tuned" graphic. So this does seem like a short-term cost cut that doesn't fit well with a more aggressive, broader business concept to grow the fan base and viewership. I would think this would be something a new owner would look at right away. It'll be nice to have more cameras and different camera angles available to the actual game broadcast, though.

That makes a ton of sense...but it's hard (especially in a game as obsessed with tradition as baseball) to break old habits and we're talking a loooooong history of pitches being measured in mph, which has led to everything else going on that standard. It's why some people objected to OPS (and probably still do) as a stat, because they couldn't grok it instinctively the way they did a .300 BA. right now, people "know" what a 95 mph fastball "means". It'll take a lot before people can say the same about 140 fps.

Correa could still make it, depending on how his legs hold up. people are giving Jimmy Rollins serious consideration (his vote totals have gone up every year) and Correa has similar bWAR in half the games played. But it's very hard to find Hall-worthy players; the Hall of Famers that have played for the Twins for more than a season or three in the last 40 years is pretty short: Mauer, Puckett. (It was nice that Molitor ended his career here, but does anyone think of him as a Twins Hall of Famer? It was great that Winfield got his 3000 hit here, but people think of the Padres or the Yankees with him. Morris had a legendary season with us, but it was one year.) Did I miss anyone? but that's part of the reason I love having Correa here: he's a truly great player.

I would like the Twins to work out a trade on Castellano because I don't think he'll be ready to be more than a mop-up guy out the gate, and we need to be able to use our full bullpen better than that. I would also like Festa to seize a spot in the rotation and Paddack to go out in a deal of substance. I would hope there's a real competition for 1B and they don't just hand it to France. I believe in Miranda's bat and his defense isn't any worse than France, so hopefully they give the guy with actual upside a legit chance to take a job. I think Lee has the inside track on 2B if he's healthy. He's a better defender than Julien, and we get more value out of Castro when he's not locked into one spot. I haven't given up on Julien, and I hope he's knocking the cover off the ball in spring training and gets time at 1B, 2B, and DH and gets back to being a hitting threat, but I'll put my money on lee. But if he doesn't win it outright, I think he's the one who goes to AAA to play every day, rather than sit on the bench in MLB. Ideally, my bullpen is something like: Duran, Jax, Sands, Coulombe, Alcala, Tonkin, Topa/Stewart (I just presume one of them won't get out of spring training healthy), and Varland (with Castellano in the last slot if they don't work out a trade). I think that's a strong mix, with 4-5 guys that you can trust late & close, a rubber arm middle guy in Tonkin who should be able to go more than just 1 inning, 1 slot for the "talented but injured" guys, and then the "converted starter with high upside but might need time to figure it out" role at the end in Varland. I feel pretty good about the pitching staff, which feels weird after so many years where it was "man, I hope they can patch together a rotation!" and "how many of these guys do I even like in the bullpen?". But outside of lefties, we have depth everywhere for pitching.

he's an interesting player to watch. i think this season will tell us a lot about whether or not he can hit for any power with wooden bats in pro baseball and be a significant hitting prospect. I don't have him fast-tracked to being a top 10 prospect in the organization, though. he did ok in Ft. Myers but hardly impressed.

I think that's right about what floor-raising means, mostly. And there's real value to not giving significant innings to pitchers with an ERA+ of 63 or ABs to hitters who clock in with an OPS+ of 70. But i agree that it can lower the ceiling, and it's even less helpful if/when you make the playoffs, because you have fewer difference-makers available to you. In terms of free agent signings, this is where we've mostly played, outside of the ones you've noted above. That said, I do think trades need to be considered in this: Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Tyler Mahle (just because it didn't work, didn't mean they didn't try) are all more than the "low risk, low reward" vet. (and how do you categorize Vazquez?) I do think if the Pohlads hadn't hacked $30M off the payroll in 2023 we might have seen higher quality veteran signings? (instead of a salary dump and a prospect, maybe Polanco gets moved for something more interesting...or we use the savings for a real OF option instead of Margot) Ownership definitely put us back in the dumpster diving mode that way.

I'm glad we're only giving him $1M, but this team has a history of overplaying underperforming veterans. I hope if he sucks they can move on from him, but I'm skeptical. Looking at the Baseball Savant stats on France, I'm not really seeing "unlucky" or that he really hit the ball all that hard. he was below average on average exit velocity, barrel %, LA sweet spot, squared up %...the only hitting stats where he cleared average (barely) were chase rate, whiff %, and K %. he hit the ball harder in Cincy than he did in Seattle and his numbers improved...but were still not good. There's a lot of blue on his charts. I hope I'm wrong. But I'm not seeing a lot to suggest this will work. At least with Santana you knew he'd play a really good 1B.

Coulombe probably doesn't fit in this category of "floor-raiser, no ceiling" the same way that Bader and France do. Sure, he's a soft-tosser (by modern standards, anyways) but he's also been very good when he's pitched the last couple of seasons. He's an injury risk, but finished the season healthy. I think if he'd been signed in December he'd simply be viewed as a guy filling a hole & role with the team. Bader and France are the ones that look like the veteran retreads that have mostly crapped out the last couple of seasons: Margot, Gallo, etc. These are guys that got too much PT, and kept getting run out there even after they were really sucking. Bader will provide defense...but Gallo provided good defense too, but after the first month or so became a disaster at the plate. France looks more like Margot: poor offense, no defense...why?!? And now we've filled up the roster with MLB contracts for guys that can't be dropped without simply eating the money or praying that someone else might take them off our hands. That makes it more likely that no significant trade happens, IMHO. I liked the Twins floor-raising strategy when we were running so thin on the roster that we simply didn't have enough MLB-capable players in the organization in multiple roles. Not giving innings or ABs to bad players is a floor-raising move that can add wins pretty quickly and relatively cheaply. But in this case, I'm questioning whether we're adding decent MLB players or just shuffling around who our "bad" players are. Raising the floor is great, but did we actually do it, or did we just add poor MLB veterans to take ABs from younger players in the organization that haven't proven themselves yet but were about the same level of meh? I mean, Bader's an improvement over Margot, because even if he can't hit either he'll play better defense. But he's more expensive and still might not be good because of his unimpressive performance at the plate. France? I don't know that he's actually better than anyone on the roster. But when you only shop in the dented can isle, I guess that's what you get. Thanks, Pohlads.

Julien's been a better player more recently than Ty France has.

Miranda and Kiersey don't belong in the same sentence here, though. miranda put up 1.7 bWAR last season with a 112 OPS+. He's been a good hitter 2 of the last 3 season in MLB, despite his injury issues. Kiersey got a cup of coffee in MLB for the first time last season and is older than Miranda. Miranda should not be seen as a fringe roster player, especially for the Twins, who need hitting.

Is it an indictment of Julien or Miranda? Think it's a bigger swipe at Miranda. France's 2023 wasn't good. His best offensive skill was getting hit by a pitch.

Terrible signing. France sucked last season. he wasn't good the year before that. It's been 3 years since he hit, he doesn't profile as a good platoon player, he's not good defensively...why are we wasting a roster spot on him? I hope I'm wrong about Ty France, but I doubt it. this looks like a zero-upside move. Much rather have Miranda & Julien with a side of Castro filling in at 1B than run out this washed up retread. Only thing he seems to have going for him at this point is health.

I like nothing about this signing. France hasn't hit since 2022, was an undeserving all-star who rode 2 hot months into getting a nod, isn't a very good defender, and doesn't even profile as a platoon player. Unless Miranda is hurt, I'd much rather have Miranda out at 1B. I hope he hasn't been promised the starting job (but I'm probably wrong) and if he stinks (which is likely) I hope the Twins are willing to cut their losses on the crappy veteran for once rather than keep running them out there hoping to recoup value. but I doubt it. Basically, I hope I'm wrong about Ty France. but I don't think I am.

It's interesting how quick some people are to give up on Julien. Dude was 7th in RoY voting in 2023, and deserved it. He's hit at every level of professional baseball, including a longer period of success in MLB than failure. One poor year (and it unquestionably was poor) and it seems like there are a lot of people ready to throw him on the scrap heap. I mean, people get mad about the Twins letting Rooker go, and he was worse than Julien, having shown far less MLB success than Julien, and couldn't stick with 2 others teams (including KC, who desperately needed a power-hitting corner OF/DH type at the time). And people still use him as an example for why the twins decision-making is bad. But we're supposed to give up on Julien?

I'm in on Miranda being the primary at 1B. If he's healthy he'll hit, and he should field the position well enough that the lower defense should be worth it. I'd tell him to focus on receiving throws as much as possible working with Correa (who I'd bet will be an awesome teacher and helper in getting him adjusted) and Lewis (who needs some help with his scattershot arm). And I'd be ok with Julien getting the first chance at backing up 1B (and 2B) with a little DH-ing in there. he might not be as good a hitter as he was in 2023, but he's better than he was in 2024. Rather see either get a chance over bringing in another washed up vet with little chance of upside and a big chance at falling through the floor.

It's always good to have important players not be coming off surgery. Even a "minor" procedure is still something. I'm sure it's a huge relief to Buxton and Lewis to not be just in rehab mode. I'll be very interested to see how Ryan is doing: it's the first real injury he's had, and hopefully it doesn't become a pattern or anything. If he's fully healthy and ready to go on Opening Day it'll be a big boost. I'm a big fan of his and him going down was a significant blow last season. back injuries/conditions are always a little tricky, so it's definitely worth monitoring Miranda and Lee to see how they're doing. I suspect both would have gotten shut down last season if a) there had been other options, and b) it wasn't the end of the year. Hopefully both are feeling strong and healthy. Pre-season health reports are always a little bit shady; "best shape of my life" is such a cliché at this point. That said, it is notable that the Twins have fewer key guys coming off off-season surgery.

There's some interesting prospects on the NRI list. Looking forward to seeing how Morris and Lewis look on the mound. While I don't expect either to be among the first called up to start for the Twins if/when injuries or ineffectiveness strikes in the rotation, both pitched well enough last season to be legitimate options in 2025 if needed. They should be fun to track in Saint Paul. Keaschall will be interesting. he had a great season going even while fighting the elbow injury, so I'm looking forward to seeing how his recovery has gone. I suspect that's part of why he's getting the invite: Twins may want their MLB training staff monitoring his recovery? Hitters do come back faster from TJ for sure, but I suspect we'll be seeing him at 2B and the OF mostly rather than testing his arm too much at 3B or SS. I'm not too fussed about Eeles or McCusker or even Walker Jenkins not getting an invite to MLB camp. If Eeles keeps showing good power production to go with his other basket of hitting skills, he'll get his opportunity and more time in AAA makes sense. Same goes for McCusker, really. If he hits, he'll get a chance but he hasn't even played 30 games in AAA yet. Jenkins will be here soon: he'll start at AA and the only thing that will keep him from AAA this season is himself. I expect to see him in Saint Paul around midseason. Oodles of talent, seems to have plenty of drive and work ethic. Please stay healthy! He's doing great for a guy who is just turning 20.

I think Castro still has a lot of value, even if he's no longer the first choice to backup CF or SS (he wouldn't be my pick either for those positions: Bader is the clear backup in CF and should be, and I'd rather see Lee step in/back up Correa). Castro's value is still tied to his versatility and if he shows he can play a good 1B makes him a high quality bench player. Being able to pinch hit or pinch run Castro into 6 different positions without needing to make a corresponding move for defensive purposes is really valuable when teams are only carrying a 4 man bench. He's not a great hitter and between injuries and maybe a little over-exposure got ground down in the second half last season; he's probably best suited to get 120-130 games and 330-375 ABs in a season rather than 150+ and 550+, exploiting that versatility and using his speed. I wish he could hit a bit better from the right side, but his splits are still decent enough that he's a reasonable switch-hitter. But I think the Twins are making a bad choice with their limited roster spots to pick up a backup SS unless it's someone they can stash in AAA as a "break glass in case of emergency". I'd much rather have Willi Castro on the bench than any of the yahoos left on the market at SS and the salary for Castro still more than matches the production. But nobody is untouchable, really, and if the Twins are able to package Castro and Paddack and a prospect for a significant bat...so be it.