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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    I mostly agree with this, though I would say Miranda has done nothing in AAA to earn a recall. I wouldn't bring him up regardless of where his options are: no scholarships. He's having a horrific season, for whatever reason. Maybe he's never really gotten back from the shoulder/back injuries. Maybe he's just not that good. Maybe his head needs re-wiring. (feels like a lot from column A, plus some column B, and maybe a little column C) but regardless: he has to earn his way back and he simply has not done it. There's other guys who are more deserving right now. I'd rather give guys like Fitzgerald or Prato a look over rewarding Miranda for his crap play. I'm increasingly of the belief that Larnach won't be back next season (he's purely a platoon bat at this point, adds no defense, and is due an increase in arbitration) so seeing what Roden can do is worth it. I wasn't high on him, but would be happy to be proven wrong. Maybe Outman shows enough in AAA that he gets another look, but I'd make him earn it too. McCusker has done more this season (though he's been dreadful lately and has had an awful summer after fast start). I would also say figuring out more of what you have with Bradley, Matthews, Festa, Morris and Abel as starters (and to some extent SWR) would help mitigate the failures of 2025 (I can't call it a "success" regardless; this team was picked to contend for the division, and should have at least been in the WC fight and they simply didn't play up to spec. That's a failure, and the sell-off was deserved. The injuries hurt, but there are always going to be injuries, and frankly the Twins didn't get beat up badly enough this season on the injury front to let them off the hook for their record.)
  2. jmlease1
    Good to see Morris back and throwing hard. I like his upside, hope he can finish out the year strong and be an option for next season. Walker Jenkins ain't slowing down at all. Love to see it. Debarge is really struggling right now, he's really fallen off after a good first 2 months. The steals don't mean all that much when you're hitting 3 for 28 with zero xbhs. He really needs some kind of reset. Dasan Hill is an intriguing prospect. If he can pull those walks into something more manageable, he'll get pretty interesting, but right now he's all arm talent. Worth watching, but long way to go.
  3. jmlease1
    Fitzgerald is really just insurance because they don't have anyone else on the roster who can play SS. What are they going to do, throw Martin in there? I mean, I guess they could have called up Eeles, but he wasn't going to play either, because they want to see how Lee does every day at SS. But with Correa and Castro both gone, there's no other real SS on the roster and they're not going to want things to go sideways if Lee rolls an ankle in the 3rd inning. Call it a reward for Fitz for being a good organizational player.
  4. jmlease1
    Last night's game is a reminder that it's hard to put up runs with no extra base hits. Twins offense is impressively bad against LHP, never did any real damage. Royce had a bad game at the plate, but no one did well with runners in scoring position. If you're relying on 2-out hits to get runs, you're going to have plenty of games where you come up short. Ober did pretty well, looked more like the guy we've seen over the past 3 seasons, which is nice against KC, because they have killed him before.
  5. jmlease1
    I suspect people would sour on him quickly in CF. As a corner OF who can also play 1B, he might get a chance, but I'm still not sure about his bat. He had a very nice run in AA and earned his promotion, and while BA isn't everything, it's a little concerning that even in a good season he was hitting .253 and hasn't always hit for much power. He does seems to have good judgment on the strike zone, so we'll see how it translates. If he can hit, he'll get a look, I think because a RH who can play 1B and the OF is a need for the Twins right now. But he'll need that bat.
  6. jmlease1
    Fedko has the kind of track record that will keep him from ever appearing on any national prospect lists. He's needed to repeat levels to figure them out (it will be interesting if he can keep his roll on this season after earning his promotion to AAA) which is why he's not getting his first crack at AAA until 25. He's not really a CF, but does fine in the corners. Just not sure he's going to be a good enough hitter to make the leap. But he earned the chance in AAA. Walker Jenkins looks great. Just want him to finish off the season healthy. The power seems to be developing and he's a very tough out. Not bad at 20 years old! Rosario has had an interesting season. Brutal start in April where he looked almost unplayable, followed by very good output in May & June (very nice K/BB numbers with good power), a bit of a lull in July where he was swinging too much and not making enough contact, but the power kept him above water, and now he looks locked in again in August. I wonder what the organization thinks of him at this point? If he finishes off this season well, he should be tracked to go to Saint Paul next season, and he's just barely turned 23...
  7. jmlease1
    I guess Keaschall has no intention of slowing down. Hey, good for him. He's definitely got a little of that energizer to him. At some point the grounders through the infield are going to stop going through every time, but he's still got a good approach at the plate and all signs are good I think. He looks fine at 2B as well with good range and a solid glove. Still some concerns about the arm, but that might improve just through getting the reps in. Roden did well again; hopefully he just needed some time to settle in. I'd love to be wrong about him and that he's more than just a Quad A player. It does look like the Twins see him as being a replacement for Larnach? Great to see the offense clicking like this. Jeffers is locked in at the plate right now and looked great (less great on that throw he airmailed to CF, but they got through it). Little surprised to see Wallner catching flack for getting rung up on that 3-2 pitch and being mad about it; maybe it nicked the corner, but also looked like it might have never actually touched the plate. The ump's reaction on it makes me back Wallner: he was slow to make the call, waited until Wallner started to walk to first, and then stumbled in his actual strike call as if he wasn't actually sure he had it right. That kind of crap is going to tick off the player and make him more certain that the ump got it wrong, and I don't blame him. A good win. Ryan is always fun to watch pitch. I'm going to be furious if he gets traded in the offseason; he's the kind of player to extend, not deal. Please sell the team!
  8. jmlease1
    Bad comp. I know Sano is persona non grata with a lot of Twins fans, but before the injuries ruined him, Sano was a good hitter and put up impactful numbers. His value was limited because of his poor defense and his career was ruined by injuries (yes, much more than the weight) but his minor league numbers translated into an impact hitter...for a while.
  9. jmlease1
    You're presuming that you can make a player be effective in a role just by deciding on the role and having them do it. There's a very interesting question to see whether some of the rotation options we have might be effective/more effective if they were pitching 3-4 innings more often than as a starter but less often than they would be as a 1-inning reliever and fill a different type of role. Long relievers have existed for a long time in baseball, but in the modern era if a team has one on their roster, they're usually treated as a low leverage pitcher that's only there to throw and absorb innings in a blow out situation of some type. Part of what's intriguing about some of this idea is seeing whether there are players who could fit into this type of role in higher leverage positions as well. I'm intrigued by the possibilities of piggybacking some of our younger/less experienced starters for the rest of the season both to evaluate where they are against MLB talent but also to see whether some of them might thrive pitching a little more often but a little less. If even one emerges as someone who can fairly reliably give 3 innings twice a week for the future, that could be a very useful role to save the bullpen, carry the team through the middle innings if someone goes "5 and Fly" (or a bit less), etc. Part of the question this season is how many rotation type guys need MLB innings to get the evaluation and development they need this season. Bradley, Abel, Rojas, Matthews, Festa, SWR, Ohl, and Adams are all contenders for this, but how many of them might be better off just pitching in the rotation at AAA while they work on stuff/get evaluated by Twins staff? I think that's a harder question. Ohl & Adams fascinate me right now, because they both have had stretches where they looked great/effective and stretches where they looked incapable of pitching at the MLB level. Part of the book on Bradley coming in was he needed to get his change back in order; should he be working on it at AAA or MLB? Rojas has lots of arm talent, but needs refinement and innings, and with so little experience above A-ball might not be well-suited to test-driving a new role in MLB. Matthews & Festa have good upside, but it seems like they need to be tested going deeper in games more than anything. I will say, the remainder of the season is the time to be creative, because they're unlikely to make some kind of crazy run and get back in contention with the shambolic bullpen we have.
  10. jmlease1
    I would not be saying call him up if he had crushed those first 5 games either; I think you've read and commented on enough of my posts to a) know better, and 2) not put words in my mouth. GG started this season in A-ball after having an unimpressive season where he battled injuries. He's already on his 3rd level this season, having earned 2 very deserving promotions. What's the benefit to throwing him in the fire one more level up at 21? Appeasing the fanbase? They can do that by selling the team. Keaschall is a reasonable comp, but notably did NOT jump from A-ball to MLB in the same season. And even without the surgery, it seems unlikely that he would have skipped past AAA entirely in 2024. We'll never know if the Twins would have tried to call him up during the collapse last season if he'd been healthy, but at least going for the playoffs might have made it justifiable. Why do it now? The argument for calling up GG right now mostly seems to be "screw Roden, Gasper, Larnach, Outman, etc I wanna move on to 2026 now!" rather than what might actually be best for his development.
  11. jmlease1
    I think this is right. Didn't really hold back Keaschall to not play in AAA last season. If Culpepper can replicate his development track (without the injuries) that would be spectacular. It's going great for Culpepper right now. Love to see it. Going to be fun seeing prospect evaluators change their tune on him.
  12. jmlease1
    I'm betting that the biggest difference-maker for GG is simply good health this season. No injuries, fully healed at 21 and he's shown excellent development. For the people already wanting him in MLB: he hasn't exactly crushed it out the gate in Saint Paul. .558 OPS in a hitter's ballpark and hitter's league isn't someone that should be thrown into the fire in MLB at 21. Let's give him the proper development time, let him adjust to the new level (hopefully when he settles down he'll start showing the patience he had earlier in the season, along with a little more pop in his bat; right now his BA is higher than his OBP, so he's got some work to do). I'm a fan, but it would be malpractice to call him up right now. Let him finish the season in AAA, continue to work on his defense in the outfield, show he can be the guy who earned his promotions at the plate, and put himself in contention to be in the running with a strong spring next season. Twins need his right-handed bat for sure, but letting him get his butt kicked in MLB (and he will right now) when he's scrabbled a bit in his first few games in AAA and still has things to work on isn't going to help him out.
  13. jmlease1
    well, that's why I said he's in Saint Paul on scholarship: he hasn't really earned his way up there based on performance, but on arm talent and projection of what he can be. Considering how little AA time he's had, it feels a little like PR to drop him in AAA right now ("we know you're pissed about Varland going out, but this super-talented prospect guy is close to the majors, we swear!"). So hard to evaluate catchers, especially in the low minors. They don't exactly get much help from the pitchers in controlling the running game (which is one of the reasons you have to pump the brakes on players with gaudy steal numbers at that level too) so I don't know that I'm that worried about Tait's ability there yet. I've heard he's got enough arm at least? (and did throw out 32% of guys in Low-A this season) Hopefully he looks comfortable back there, sets up a decent target, and passes the basic eye test for now. Would love to keep hearing more about how he looks back there, because if he can be solid defensively it would be a big win.
  14. jmlease1
    Rojas has talent, but also has a fair amount of work to do. The multiple errors are going to make his ERA look better, but the reality is he still yielded the double and the dinger. Kind of feels like he's in AAA on scholarship a bit and looks more like a AA pitcher to me right now. Hopefully he has a strong finish to the season, but 2027 looks more likely than 2026 for his arrival in MLB. Culpepper is really having a great season, Pretty impressive for his first full professional season; he doesn't seem to be wearing down at all in the grind of a long season. You can see exactly why the Twins liked him so much in the draft and he should be looked at as a Top 100 prospect now...is he top 50? I'm sure there are evaluators who prefer 18=19 year old kids at low-A with theoretical higher ceilings, but I'm in on Culpepper. He looks nicely lined up to start next season in Saint Paul and potentially debut in 2026. Would love to know more about how Tait looked behind the plate. I can see why people are into his bat, and if he can stick at catcher, then he's a prospect to be excited about. Happy to have him in high A when he hasn't even turned 19 quite yet.
  15. jmlease1
    If Houston plays GG-quality defense at SS, has a triple slash of .280/.365/.425 (which is where you might land at 30 doubles, 6 triples, and 10 homers) and steals 20-25 bases he'll have a place. On the all-star team! I think you may be underrating how hard it is to do that...
  16. jmlease1
    Why would you remove all of the defensive utility Brooks Lee brings to the table (he's almost certainly going to be our starting SS until Culpepper is ready) by moving him to 1B, especially when he hasn't shown he can hit anywhere near well enough to play at positions that demand offense? While I'm sure Lee would field well at the position, moving him there makes zero sense. I don't know that we have a good 1B option right now that could lock down the position for 5+ seasons that's close. Wallner profiles ok there, but might not have the footwork and we have no idea if he could become adept at things like the scoops and sweep tags. I think a more likely contender would be Billy Amick, but he's still in A-ball and on the IL.
  17. jmlease1
    I'm comfortable downgrading the overall Varland trade because it seems so unnecessary (and while Rojas is a legit prospect, Roden is...not) but ranking it the worst of the deals with such a low grade gets caught up a little too much in the emotion of it and weights the "hometown boy" aspect too heavily for my tastes. I wouldn't have dealt Varland because he could be anchoring your bullpen not just next season but for 3-4 seasons at an affordable rate and hopefully we're not stuck in the basement for that full time with the supposed talent we have on this team and in the system. But the return isn't awful...just risky. I think we fans have been overrating Castro a bit as a player; his ability to play everywhere is probably no longer realistic (would you really want him at SS or CF?) and he's only putting up an OPS+ of 103 this season. Following seasons where he had an OPS+ of 101 and 105. He's not a bad player (and by all accounts is a great guy) but the all-star appearance was a fluke. He's a nice fit for a contender as a bench player, but he's become less impactful and that was reflected in his rental value. Stewart is complicated. I think his value is low because he simply can't be relied on to be healthy. The upside is great, but who would want to pencil him in as their closer or primary set-up man going forward? I probably wouldn't have traded him, and certainly not for Outman, so I'd rank this one much lower just because what did it do for us? But at the same time, I wouldn't be able to count on Stewart as a key bullpen guy for next season, even if he finishes the season healthy.
  18. jmlease1
    See, here's the thing: you simply can't run a team with the expectation that every trade you make you're going to "win". What you're really suggesting here is that unless the Twins screwed the other team they should always hang on to their players, even when selling. Because if the only way you'll deal a guy is to get the other team to overpay, they're not going to deal with you. Now, you can somewhat get away with that on guys like Duran, Jax, and Varland (we'll get to Stewart in a minute) who have team control left, but when you're flipping rentals, expecting to "win" the trade every time means you're likely to not move guys who are going to be gone after the season and get nothing for them. If you're selling because you're not a playoff team, why is that good or smart? Because it's more important for the fanbase to keep a well-liked player (like Castro)? Trades are still good when it's relatively equal value. Sometimes the market might demand that you get extra value for certain types of players at certain points during the year...but not always. And what the fans (or media) might deem as the "correct" value for a player might not be what the league has them at. Which is almost certainly where Stewart lands. Personally, I wouldn't have dealt him for a return like this because again, he's cheap and under team control and has the stuff to be a high-leverage reliever. But with his medicals, he also simply can't be counted on to be a cornerstone of your bullpen even if he finishes this season healthy. You have significant risk as a franchise when you deal MLB talent for prospects, no matter where they are rated. You're buying more lottery tickets and hoping that you're IDing the right guys and enough of them will pan out. If Tait becomes the starting catcher for the Twins in 2028 and is a good player, then the twins will have done well in that trade regardless of what Duran does for Philly. We won't know who (if anyone) "won" these deals for a while.
  19. jmlease1
    Look, I didn't like the Varland deal because he was showing that he could handle being a high-leverage reliever, he was cheap and under team control for a long time, and would fill a real team need after trading out so many other relievers. I'm concerned about the return, because while it's be reported that we got a "Triple A Starter", Rojas has only made 5 starts above A-ball, and never thrown more than 85 innings in a pro season, so he's likely much farther away from being a real option, and A-ball prospects (which is what Rojas really is IMHO) are much more suspects than prospects. Roden has done little to impress so far in MLB and there's a real possibility that he's a Quad-A player, despite some good minor league stats, especially at 25. I'm not concerned that he's a Saint Paul kid. That's a nice bonus, but should never stop a team from making the right business decisions for the club. I'm thrilled that Varland has been a good dude and treated fans well (always better to have guys who are positive, nice to the kids, respectful with fans over surly, angry, or absent players), but the off-field stuff can't trump on-field. Fan favorite? I doubt he was more popular than Duran, and no one is raising hell over Duran being dealt (even though he was developed by the Twins, spent the vast majority of his pro career in the organization, and was reportedly well-liked and treated people well. I've personally seen him be a class dude, for whatever that's worth) because of that. The problem with the Varland trade is the return might not make sense and seemed unnecessary, not that he was a nice hometown boy.
  20. jmlease1
    His college stadium is a bandbox and that was where the bulk of his homers were, so it's fair to be concerned that in the professional, wood-bat context he might struggle to show anywhere near the same kind of pop, and as we've seen: if you have no power potential it's hard to be a consistently effective player on offense. We'll see where he goes. I don't think he needs to turn into any kind of slugger to be successful (it helps a lot that he's a plus defender already), but it'll help him a lot if he can show that he can turn on a fat pitch and punish a pitcher who thinks he can get away with one. So far he's showing that he's got good contact skills and can get hits just fine, which is a fine start to his pro career.
  21. jmlease1
    It'll be interesting to see where the new acquisitions fall on the Twins prospect rankings, especially guys like Tait and Mendez. (I'm guessing no new list until the offseason?) Tait is still pretty raw, but you can see the talent. If he can hang at Cedar Rapids for the rest of the season, I'll be pretty happy. Bummer to see Billy Amick hit the IL again. He looked like he was finding his form again after missing all of May and wobbling a little when he came back. DeBarge has also come crashing back to earth after a fast start; the steals are fun, but his performance at the plate is a bit concerning. 2+ months of blah production isn't great. I remain intrigued by Mendez: is this a breakout season for him or a blip? He certainly seems to have impressive contact skills. Bradley has plenty of talent, nice to see him have a good start in AAA. With Festa, SWR, and Pablo still out, have to wonder if he might get tapped quickly for the rotation or if the Twins keep him in AAA to try and make sure that he's got his pitches where they want them to be.
  22. jmlease1
    Charlee Soto is on the injured list and has never pitched above A-ball; he will NOT be in the twins 'pen next season. Rojas has 5 outings above A ball; expecting him to be in the bullpen in 2026, especially when he's being developed as a starter, is also absurd. Maybe one of Abel or Bradley ends up in the bullpen, but since that trashes the value of the trade by a lot...seems unlikely So we still need 4 bullpen slots to get filled, and the only ones on your list here that might be considered for end-game status are Sands (who took a step back this season) and Prielipp (a rookie who hasn't pitched above AA yet). Needing 4 guys for the bullpen and 2 key adds to the lineup while keeping Larnach (and if you do, it's a pretty LH lineup again) makes this a stretch to begin with, and it's also premised on Roden actually being good (he's had 1 good game as a twin), GG being ready, and a small sample of Keaschall (who I love but come on) being who he might be. Even crazier is anticipating any spending at all until the team is sold. I'm happy to see the team scrapping and thrilled to see Keaschall put a charge in everyone, but I'm not saying anything about this team looks competitive after a good week, especially not until this team is sold.
  23. jmlease1
    I feel like they're doing better, guys are getting moved up a bit more aggressively...but based more on performance than scholarship? I know there are a lot of people questioning his power potential, and I feel like if there's some swing re-tooling that needs to happen, it might more sense to work on it in Ft. Myers while developing an off-season program for him. But I might be overrating the impact of the more expansive Ft. Myers facility/staff. Still happy to see Houston passing the Lemon Test so far.
  24. jmlease1
    will 15 games or so at Cedar Rapids tell us anything more? It ended up working out ok for Culpepper last year, but he struggled at the plate when he jumped to High A after only 4 games in Ft. Myers. (they're basically the same age) Not sure it would cause any harm either way except in the court of public opinion, but if he puts up an OPS of .650 in Cedar Rapids we'll be seeing meltdown city around here. I guess I wouldn't mind having more of the Twins instructional staff around him from the jump, since his bat is likely to need a little work... He's not young, but he's also not old: at 21 he's bang-on average for the FCL. I guess I just don't like a "4 good games? promote 'em!" on him.
  25. jmlease1
    Well, I've been bashing Roden ever since we acquired him, nice to see him have a good game. I'm still unenthusiastic, but hoping to be wrong. maybe I should start getting on someone else for being a quad-A player and see if they respond. I'm sure they're reading and it'll have an impact. 🙄 Keaschall sure is coming out flying. Got to love it. Maybe he puts a charge into the team the way Royce Lewis did when he was first coming up? (please stay healthier, Luke!) Offense absolutely did the job. Plenty of hits, plenty of walks, only hit into one DP and scored runs in 6 out of the 9 innings. Ohl got thumped around, which isn't great to see. Can't give up 3 dingers in less than 3 innings. He's got some things to figure out still, but there are flashes with him. Still...seems more like a long reliever than a realistic starter. But a guy who could give you 2-3 solid innings every 3-4 days has value in today's game, so we'll see how he does. Hatch did a nice job chewing up some innings, though and the first few without the big lead. Road series win against the division leaders. Sure, why not? :P
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