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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    This is only a playoff litmus if you expect Kepler, Gonzalez, & Sano to be injured/unavailable in the playoffs. We didn't exactly have the full squad out there last night on offense...or defense.
  2. jmlease1
    Nelson Cruz: professional hitter. I was enthusiastic about the Cruz signing. I recall a number of people not being thrilled about signing an aging RH slugger who could only play DH because it was likely going to push someone like Tyler Austin off the roster. (I was never an Austin guy, and I think his time in SF proved me right, though he's provided a nice boost for Milwaukee in limited time) One of the reasons I was enthusiastic about Cruz was his LHP/RHP splits: Cruz hit everyone. Historically, he's destroyed LHP but he's also been terrific against RHP. His career hitting splits are kind of amazing, frankly. There's little difference between home & away. There's little difference between 1st half & 2nd half. There's little difference between him in the field vs DHing. There's no holes in his hit tool and his consistency is a skill. He might fall off the table next season (I'm not betting against him, though) and I'm sure he's benefited from the ball this year...but I really don't care. He's been fantastic for the twins this year and it was a great signing.
  3. jmlease1
    Terrific start by Berrios, hopefully it's just what he needed to get back/stay on track. I thought his command looked better tonight; really looked like he was putting his pitches where he wanted them. Sure, there were misses around the plate, but when he was missing a pitch it was by inches on one plane, not by 6-8+ and occasionally on 2. The velocity looked good, hitting 95 often enough. They still may want to look to find him some extra rest before the playoffs, though i know it's tougher right now with no days off and still being in a pennant race. Beautiful dinger by Garver. Just majestic. we need his bat in the lineup right now.
  4. jmlease1
    I suspect Rowson will get mentioned and probably at least 1 interview. Zoll certainly should be on someone's radar and much as I would prefer to keep this team intact I wouldn't be shocked at all if either of those two (or both) got swept up by another franchise. I'm going to guess less likely on Adler in part because he's lower profile but also because his role is one where I think a lot of teams still probably think they can invent their own. But YMMV. I'm amused at the anti-Falvine comments. Coupled with the instant overreactions to every win/loss/injury/event these tell me one singular fact: the Twins are now relevant enough again for people to get invested in and at least occasionally lose their minds over.
  5. jmlease1
    Nice win last night. Wish Odorizzi could have finished off the 6th; it's a little frustrating how often he seems to hit a wall in that inning no matter how well he's been rolling, but he did the job last night. I can't hate on Rosario too much for his AB; he took what should have been ball 4, but Diaz had a really inconsistent strike zone and I think everyone knew it. Makes it hard to ask a hitter to keep taking pitches, and you still want guys to go up to the plate looking for a pitch to drive. Twins are weirdly bad with the bases loaded this season. It's the flukiest stat of the whole season that a team hitting this well, with so much power, is doing so poorly with the bases loaded. Sure, we have a bunch of guys who K a lot, but this is a total outlier. It would be really nice to get a series win today and bury Cleveland, but getting last night's win was the really important one. Making sure to avoid the sweep is massive and really puts the pressure back on Cleveland. Hopefully this calms down all the people who freaked out after Pineda's suspension was announced and started declaring the twins season over and that there was no way they'd even win the division...(talk about overreaction!)
  6. jmlease1
    Chalmers is an interesting player. Real talent, but also real issues with control and injuries (21 games in 3 years? yikes). The stuff is real, but until he cuts down on the free passes consistently I don't see him rising. Balazovic is absolutely the real deal, though. I think he's got a real chance to start the year at AA next season, and he could rise very quickly. Great to see Kirilloff ending the year strong, and I'm glad he's going to the AFL. The injuries were tough this year, but healthy he's the best hitter in the Twins Minor league system and I think we'll see him in MLB at some point in 2020.
  7. jmlease1
    If they win tonight, they win the series and anyone who complains about winning a road series needs to check themselves. It's disappointing that Berrios is continuing to struggle, and a little too bad that the offense couldn't pick him up, but it happens. I'm not sure shutting him down for an extended period will make a real difference, but skipping him the next time through might not be out of line, just to get him some extra rest and time to work on mechanics. Unless he's got an injury, sitting him for an extended period probably doesn't help. Here's what I really don't love about last night's game: Mitch Garver not catching. I understand getting him and Castro plenty of rest, i understand getting Astudillo out there...but until we've clinched, Garver should be getting in the lineup more.
  8. jmlease1
    Nice win tonight, although May & Rogers made it a little too interesting. Sano's HR was a massive blast, so fun to watch. I said before this series started that i thought the twins had a solid chance of taking 2 out of 3 and that the bullpen game didn't scare me. feeling pretty good about that call right now, lol. Keep winning series, twins. you'll be fine if you just keep winning series.
  9. jmlease1
    If the Twins can win the series it would be a significant boost towards locking down the AL Central, setting up a showdown with Cleveland. If the Twins are 5 games up after the home series against Cleveland, it's going to be very hard for them to catch up. I like the Twins chances against the BoSox. With the expanded rosters, a bullpen game doesn't freak me out as much and this offense can hit with anyone. Am I concerned with Berrios' loss of velocity? yep. Am I concerned that teams have enough tape on Perez that his inability to command the strike zone will haunt him from here on out? yep. Do I still think the Twins can take 2 out of 3? yep.
  10. jmlease1
    Im still on Team Kirilloff, but Larnach is definitely justifying his draft position. I suspect one of these two will be replacing Eddie Rosario in the OF, but you never know. Blankenhorn is going to be an interesting player to watch next year. He took a step forward this year, but still has some work to do. He's unlocked some of his power potential, but his plate discipline really slipped at AA and unless he regains control of the strike zone he's not going to keep moving forward. mid-year he pushed into the top 20 prospect list here...not sure he'll stay there when everyone looks at the full season. Enlow has some work to do, but still has real potential. Im happy that he got over 100 innings this year; I'm less thrilled that his K rate dropped back again at Ft. Myers. I'd also be happier if he could ever get his BB rate under 3. But there's still talent and time to develop. I think he starts back in Ft. Myers next season and moved up to AA fairly quickly.
  11. jmlease1
    I'm a fan of Duffy. a 2-pitch combo can work just fine in relief, and since he never made another pitch really go this is a better option for him. He's got the velocity on the fastball, and the curve is excellent. Hes settling in and doing great and I think he's a terrific option for the back end
  12. jmlease1
    With Duffey & May settling in, it makes a real difference. both have the stuff to be serious relief weapons and Dyson & Romo are upgrades so now you've got 5 relievers you're going to feel more comfortable with mixing and matching the last three innings. I always thought that May should have been a weapon in the back end, but his early struggles (and he's still occasionally too wild) put an early dent in that. I don't think the Twins bullpen is great, but I think it's good and better than most fans think. the biggest flaw is we don't have an additional lefty option in there, which I think is a miss in the playoffs and hurts your ability to handle specific matchups. Truth be told, in the playoffs you don't need 7-8 bullpen guys. With all the days off in the postseason schedule, if you have 5 guys you can count on you're in pretty good shape. twins might have that already...
  13. jmlease1
    I definitely feel better about the back end being manned by Rogers, Romo, Dyson, May, and Duffey than mixing in Harper, Magill, and Morin. Romo in particular has been terrific and combining his experience with these results is all to the good.
  14. jmlease1
    Interesting and tense game last night. I was really wondering if Rocco was going to send Pineda back out in the 6th. On the one hand, Big Mike was pitching well. On the other, it's a tight game and one bad pitch might tie it up or lose it for you. On the other hand, he was only at 88 pitches. On the other hand, he hasn't thrown 100 pitches in a game all year. On the other hand, it would have really been nice to get one more inning and not run through all your best bullpen guys in one night. On the other hand...man, that's a lot of hands. Not an easy call. Considering Pineda's injury history and not being known for durability, i think it's probably the right choice, and it certainly worked out. But I thought it was a really fascinating decision point. The HR barrage is amazing. It's possible for the Twins to run out a perfectly reasonable lineup where every single player has 15+ HRs. they have 11 players with double-digit HRs. They're extremely likely to finish the year with 8 guys with 20+. Don't groove a pitch to these guys because they will send it out. Holy cow.
  15. jmlease1
    I get the challenge the coaching staff has right now on Berrios. I'm sure they'd like to skip a start for him, see if a little extra rest might put a little more life back in the arm, get him to relax and pitch to his talent...but it's hard when you're in a real race for the division title and the rest of your starting pitching is rather uninspiring. That said, Perez has gotten himself back on track and has been solid again, Pineda has been pretty reliable...so maybe you do take a chance on Kohl Stewart or Lewis Thorpe or Devin Smeltzer grinding through a spot start while Berrios gets a break. I'd argue the risk is fairly marginal considering Berrios' recent struggles. Getting Buxton back will be a boon in so many ways. He adds a completely different dimension with his speed and it's a significant defensive upgrade because you're not just improving from Kepler's good CF defense to Buxton's great, you also get Kepler's great RF defense back over Cave/Gonzalez/whomever's range of defensive options. (Cave looks...exciting out there. He makes great plays, he makes awful plays...Gonzalez is solid enough; the "great" plays are probably only good plays at best with a better fielder, but he doesn't make bad decisions) Having Cruz back in the lineup is also a major factor. He's just not a guy that any pitcher can feel confident they've got him nailed. He's having a terrific year at the plate and is dangerous as hell in every AB. I would love to see the numbers for guys batting in front or behind him for the year versus batting in front or behind other players; I'd love to know if there's a "Cruz Effect" on our lineup.
  16. jmlease1
    It's baseball, so I'm never going to complain about a series win. I know everyone wants a sweep, but if the Twins keep winning series like this, they're going to be just fine and will raise that flag for a division title. Nice to see CJ rip a dinger like that; he's been scuffling in the second half and it sure has felt like he's never gotten fully healthy. But he's an important asset so getting him right by the end of the year is important.
  17. jmlease1
    Can't remember the last time we had that many balls bouncing off the fences for doubles! fun to watch, especially after the frustrating early hole. I am amazed at the Nelson Cruz power show. Fantastic signing (especially since we have him locked in for next year), rather reminiscent of the Jim Thome acquisition in 2010. About the only thing stopping Cruz from having his best season as a pro in his age 38 season is...health. Unlikely that he'll clear 120 games. And no, he's not an MVP candidate. he's a fantastic hitter and having a wonderful season but health and defense matter too. Alex Bregman is having a fantastic season and he's still a distant second to Trout IMHO. Trout is an amazing player and I'm not going to penalize him for being on a mediocre team; without him they'd stink. Not his fault they can't put a decent lineup around him or swing a competent pitching staff: I mean, you try carrying the corpse of Albert Pujols for 3-4 seasons. Polanco was the Twins closest chance for an MVP candidate, but he cooled off for a while at the plate and is struggling defensively. Kepler's eased back a bit as well, Cruz adds no defensively value, Garver doesn't play enough (and is no longer nuking the world just hitting very very well)...and it's ok. The twins are doing it with depth. Trout would trade the MVP in a heartbeat to have guys like Kepler, Sano, Garver, etc around him...
  18. jmlease1
    Vallimont is interesting. He's certainly showing some ability, even if he's no longer all that young for high A ball. It will be interesting to see how he does in better competition next season and if he'll still be able to keep this level of control. But he may have a future, which is pretty exciting considering the deal we got him with. He's been terrific since coming to MN, but I was surprised at how few professional innings he's thrown. Next season is going to be very interesting for him as well.
  19. jmlease1
    Trevor May is starting to dominate like the club hoped he would from the start of the season. He looked terrific again tonight, good control and dominant stuff. If hes truly rounding into form, that's excellent news for the bullpen going down the stretch. Opposing batters are really going to struggle to catch up to his fastball when he's rolling.
  20. jmlease1
    The Pensacola roster is just stacked right now. 8 of our Top 20 prospects are playing there right now, including the top 4? That's one heck of a wave coming. It's going to be really interesting watching the FO try to figure out the OF/1B spots for the next several years: who they bet on could really change things for this franchise. Will they flip one or more of them for pitching? Will they move on from a veteran already in MLB to free up a spot?
  21. jmlease1
    So your issue is how sportsmanship is enforced in baseball? Do you agree with the unwritten rule that you don't swing at a 3-0 pitch late in a blowout? And do you believe that's an appropriate display of sportsmanship? I'm honestly curious what people think on some of this.
  22. jmlease1
    Yep. The pitcher is kind of a dumbass here, because you can't demand fidelity to unwritten rules if you ignore them yourself and the whole "hat tip" apology is one of the oldest ones out there. And of course, traditionally when enforcing an unwritten rule against a teammate of the rule-breaker the pitcher never would throw their best fastball, nor would it ever get near the head. Nor do you wait multiple pitches to do it...are we sure this pitcher doesn't just suck?
  23. jmlease1
    As noted in the game thread, this unwritten rule is derived from a bunch of highly competitive professionals who do this over the course of six month and in many cases have to play each other again the next day/week/month. It's a little professional courtesy of "don't pile on when the game is out of reach" combined with "let's all get through this one without anyone getting hurt". And in baseball (as with many sports), the players/managers have assumed the duty of enforcing these unwritten rules on the field (and one of the reasons for that was so that things stayed on the field). If you think this is all stupid, you are entitled to your opinion. As with all unwritten rules, they do tend to evolve and change over the years (and new ones will be created) as player's attitudes about the game change. For example, players fraternizing with each other from different teams used to be a non-starter (and at one point crossed from unwritten rule to written rule) and it's completely gone away. Attitudes towards sportsmanship in this country are changing and evolving and that impacts how people perceive this. there are people who think the concept of sportsmanship is entirely outdated as it applies to professional athletics, because of the professional nature of the game. YMMV on whether that's true or not, or good or not. There are others who look at baseball's traditions as a way to preserve a cherished view of the past, where the things they liked about baseball's "glory years" are celebrated, including things like unwritten rules, while other aspects are ignored or discarded (racism, drug use, etc.). I will say some of the comps people have been providing from other sports are a little silly: being up by 8 in the 9th is NOT the equivalent to being up by 10 with 2 minutes left in a basketball game...even in today's homer-happy era. Part of me likes baseball's unwritten rules because they are often a little dumb. Keeping the sport a little weirder, a little goofy and so on isn't always a bad thing.
  24. jmlease1
    Arraez just keeps on rolling, huh? The dinger may have been a surprise but it's a pleasant one: if he can be a guy who hits 8-10 HRs along with 30+ doubles and a handful of triples he's going to be a much more complete player. He doesn't need a SLG% that's over .450 to be a terrific starting 2B, but he does need to keep it over .400 IMHO. A little extra pop on those occasional HRs helps a lot. He's just become a really tough out. His BABiP is high, but not ludicrously so. The BB% is excellent for a guy who gets so many damn hits. he's doing a terrific job of controlling the strike zone: you can't strike him out often and you can't get him to chase much either. It's a really effective approach and he could be a terrific leadoff guy in the future. I'm a little worried about Polanco right now. Maybe he's taking the slump at the plate out in the field with him? He's got to get those throws ironed out, because those free outs he's yielding can really haunt you. He probably needs a day or two off, and we've got the infielders up right now to do it, so hopefully Rocco gives him a day off and some infield instruction.
  25. jmlease1
    I'm really struggling with the stats calling CJ Cron a below average 1B. Is it a range factor thing? because he's done a nice job scooping throws in the dirt (and our left side of the infield can...get a little wild out there). I've watched a lot of twins games this year and based on the eye test I would have thought he'd clock in more above average. (that's what I've been hearing from the baseball coaches I know too?) regardless, much as I like many things about this lineup, benching Marwin for Ehire is not one of them.
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