jmlease1

It's not the number of starts or the innings pitched that's the issue with Rice, it's the number of pitches they'll allow a kid to throw in those starts. 120 pitches? sure, no problem. 140? well, we need you to win today, so go right on out there. 150? You're graduating this spring, so why do we care? They are notorious for letting guys rack up huge pitch counts.

This. He might have been ok starting in AA, but having that get interrupted by the Olympics and then not actually pitching in Japan on top of not having a season of games in 2020 really screwed him. He needed last year as a development year and it got completely borked up with the Olympics. Considering he only had 6 starts in A+ at age 18, I don't think there was any need to rush him to AA, especially with the skip year in 2020. His time with the Twins so far was pretty meaningless: it's only 8 innings coming off a essentially a 6 week layoff. I'm guessing they were just trying to see what he looked like and try to figure out what he needed to work on. Hopefully, he's back in AA and gets to be on a real program this year and show what he can do. the talent is there. I really don't want him factoring in to any trade right now; pretty sure we'd be selling low on a guy with a lot of talent.

I wish only great things for Royce Lewis, who seems like an awesome dude. Hopefully he gets a year of great health so he can show what he's capable of. Have to say, if his speed is in Byron Buxton's class, even after the knee injury? WOW. (speed guys are so much fun to watch)

Which has a worse track record for bust/injuries: first round draft pick high school pitchers or Rice alumni?

Comments like "high-effort delivery" and "head violence" remind me of when scouting reports described a player as "having a good face". It's as if they've decided there can be only one way to pitch and a young player must have a certain kind of pitching motion or it must be changed. I think there's as much risk in that kind of decision as there is in letting the pitcher continue on with what has been working for them. Petty apparently already has a good slider as a high school pitcher who threw 100mph. If you're throwing 100mph in high school, you don't really need anything else, so the fact that he might already have a plus off-speed pitch is remarkable and worth spending a high draft pick on. I'd like to see him in rookie ball, working on his secondary offerings and integrating them with the magical fastball. I kinda don't want to see them try and mess with his delivery at this point, not unless he's showing real problems with control against professional competition. Pitchers are not robots. Unless his delivery is showing signs of actually causing him damage to his body that will lead to injury and an adjustment will actually prevent it (as opposed to "well, we like this one better") then leave him alone. Let's see what he can do.

Everything about Winder looks good except his health. If he has a full season, that probably goes away. He's got a full package and he's close to being ready to pitch in MLB. I might go higher than #10, but I don't know that I care that much about the distinction between #6 and #10? He probably starts in AAA since he finished last season on the injured list...but it's going to be really interesting to see who the first guy up from AAA is this season. Could be Canterino. Could be Duran. Could be Balazovic. Could even be Strotman. But I wouldn't bet against Winder. At this point I'm not really interested in having a veteran retread starting the season with the Twins in AAA, because you can fill out the whole rotation in Saint Paul with legitimate prospects. Can't wait to see which one is the first to bust out. Winder might be the one most ready to pitch in MLB, even if someone else might have better stuff.

It's interesting to contrast this group with KLaw's Top 20. TD seems to be much higher on Wallner than KLaw, who actually suggested he go back to pitching. Be interesting to see who is right on that that one, and the reality is it's all going to depend on whether or not he can make enough contact. Varland is a great story, but he's not just a story with that fastball. He's a legit prospect and it's going to be interesting to see how his secondary offerings progress. He's shown he has the work ethic. Looking forward to tracking his rise this year

I can see dropping Enlow down (he's a player where you have to have a lot of faith in his talent and projection over health & production), but Strotman's lack of control, age, and likely fate in the bullpen make it hard to put him in the top 20 for me. He had some success his first dozen starts, but he was still walking everybody, which is why it shouldn;t have been a surprise to see his numbers drop off for the next dozen after he came over to the Twins.

He's 16th on the prospect list. All they're saying is he has the tools to rise very high. If he doesn't make more contact as he rises through minor league levels, he won't climb these prospect ranks, But ignoring that initial power production would be silly.

As a depth signing and hedge against injury, I like the move. As a contender for the starting job, well, he'd better not be the number one seed. He's a perfectly reasonable option to have in AAA if the starting SS gets an injury that's going to put them on the shelf for longer than a week or so. But that's really the extent of the expectation, and anything else would be a bonus that you can't count on when assembling the team.

I'd bump Lewis out for Sabato. I'm definitely more forgiving for injury; it's a) almost always outside the player's control, and b) players can come back from it really strong. I'm more worried about guys who perform poorly on the field, and Sabato had a brutal start to his year. He was pretty bad in the FSL and just couldn't make consistent contact, and for a player whose value is going to almost exclusively come from his bat...yuck. Despite the missed time, Lewis is the same age as Sabato and has a better array of tools.

Winder has wonderful potential. He looks like he knows how to pitch and has some offerings that can get guys out at the MLB level. The real issue with Winder, and the reason he hasn't debuted yet, and why he might not start in the MLB rotation, is health. He didn't pitch after July 21 last year and only threw 72 innings. Winder only threw 7 innings once last year. He did not exactly dominate upon promotion to AAA. I like his pitches and his makeup, and I think he could be a fine pitcher, but it's not going to be some tragedy or screw-job if he starts the season in AAA

In terms of stock rising, this makes sense to me with these picks. Miranda was a guy twins staff always rated, but had never reflected that in the performance, so this jumps him up. Varland was an interesting pitcher, but until they ticked his fastball up, it was hard to know if he had a weapon to fall back on. both got much more interesting after last season.

I'm not opposed to bringing back Odo to eat up some innings while the young guys find their footing, I guess? A rotation of Pineda, Bundy, Ryan, Ober, and Odorizzi isn't going to make anyone leap out of their chair, but if it means that there's enough room in the budget to sign Story, then I say Faster Pussycat, Kill, Kill. If it's a choice between Pineda and Odorizzi, I take Pineda every time. If acquiring Odo means giving up a real prospect, then F no. If adding Odo means we won't make a run at Story...I'd rather make a run at Story.

I'm a Trevor Story guy, and i definitely rate him. Kinda feels like it fixes a number of things: locks down SS for several years with skilled defense and a good bat (even if he never gets back to hitting like an all-star, he's going to be good enough to make half the teams in the league envious). Finds a good use for the team's budget dollars after going nowhere on signing starting pitching. (and there's still likely enough money to resign Pineda with no real problem) yes, the team would be relying on a lot of untested starters and betting on rebounds from some guys. but I would much rather spend a big pile on a quality SS who can still play at an all-star level than spread around most of that money on a retread starter and two middle of the pack and overpaid relievers. Think about this lineup: Polanco Donaldson Buxton Kirilloff Sano Kepler Garver Arraez Story That's a nightmare to navigate. You'd have plus defenders at 4 positions (SS, 2B, CF, and RF) and Donaldson and Garver aren't any kind of drag (at least not yet). The only guy in that lineup without power is Arraez (who could also be freed up to be dealt for pitching), and you'd have bench options with Miranda, Larnach, Gordon, and Jeffers. I think Story is a hell of a fit, regardless of where Royce Lewis or Austin Martin are in their development.

Hey, you're 100% right about everything except his time at Ft. Myers. He may have just needed to a) find his footing in professional ball, and b) get out of the damn Florida State League. I certainly hope so. But the expectation was that he would mash from the start and advance quickly. Instead he was a mess for most of the time in the FSL. (I have to admit, while I like seeing guys draw walks at any stage in their career, it's less meaningful in the low minors, when many of the pitchers can't control their stuff yet) We'll see what Sabato does this year. It's going to be all about making consistent hard contact on pitches in the zone. He's shown he can hit the ball a long way. He's shown he can lay off pitches out of the zone. But he'll get eaten up by the time he gets to AA if he can't do damage consistently when he swings the bat. I'm not as concerned about a drafting a guy who might not reach the majors until he's 25 or 26. He'll be under team control for his prime and you may well have better choices with options between AAA & MLB and managing your 40 man roster against Rule 5 drafts. (This is the biggest challenge with some of these international signings at age 16; you end up having to protect them on the 40 man before you even know who they are as players, while they're still down in A-ball.)

well, low-A is a level and it's fair to say that Sabato did not hit there. He utterly failed to make consistent contact, had a brutally bad batting average and only decent power production. I think it was fair to have higher expectations for him as a 22 year-old college bat.

Well, I'm advocating for spending our budget on Trevor Story, so... But I will say that I do believe that Polanco is more likely to stay healthy at 2B than at SS. I don't know how much more likely that is, but it's a non-zero number. The bigger issue for me is that I see Polanco as being a consistent all-star quality 2B, because in addition to his excellent hitting, his defense plays there, going from being a below-average defender at SS to a good one (very good one?) at 2B. If I can get 5+ WAR out of a player by playing them at a particular position, I want to do that, even if the net WAR is the same by playing them somewhere else and having a different player fill behind. all-star quality performances raise a team's ceiling; going the other way raises a team's floor. But it's much easier to raise the floor than to raise the ceiling.

This is one of the reasons I think the Twins should go all-in on Trevor Story to play SS, who is an excellent defender at the position and a fine hitter who has some pop in his bat to go along with good plate control. I saw Dan Hayes trade proposals at The Athletic, and in order to get any of the pitchers on offer out there he was proposing giving up multiple of our best prospects and the response from the other side's beat guy was "probably not enough". If prospect capital is down in order to get a team-controlled pitcher that can slot in to the front of a rotation (and honestly, none of the pitchers being proposed were exactly Cy Young candidates: they're good pitchers who might be great in a year) then putting Arraez on the block might be the better way to go. Lock down SS. Sign Pineda. Deal Arraez & a prospect or two (but not handing off Austin Martin after a season where suddenly prospect evaluators are dropping him rapidly down the rankings) for a frontline pitcher.

I don't see this as the Twins "failing" Josh Donaldson. The first season they were exactly the kind of team that Donaldson thought he was joining: a very good one, a playoff contender, one that had a shot at a title. 2021 was a horrific season, not just because the Twins were bad, but because they were bad in a year where everyone, literally everyone, expected them to be good. They were picked by everyone to be contending for the AL Central title again, and many reputable people and projection systems had them winning it. Instead, injuries, poor play, bad starts, etc ruined the season. Season 1 of this deal, Donaldson got hurt at the wrong time. Season 2, every coin flip went the wrong way, they got off to horrific start and the season went bad. The deal the Twins made, they were going for it in the first two years of that contract, the expectation was "get all the value you can in the first two years, the second two a risk-filled". They made the playoffs in season 1 and Donaldson wasn't available to play because of injury. Season 2 it went bad. So who "failed" who? We're heading into season three and we don't know how this team is going to go. Right now, it doesn't look like it has the pitching to contend, but a) we don't know how this roster will end up, and b) we don't know how the young pitchers are going to actually do. The lineup is definitely good enough to contend, and frankly the bullpen is probably good enough as well. "Failure"? Meh. Hasn't worked out like anyone planned or hoped, but it's hard to say it was a failure for anyone. Twins lined it up and got it right in the first year of Donaldson's contract (and then Donaldson was hurt when they needed his bat the most...did he "fail"?) and didn't in year two (but none of their bets were ridiculous. I'm sorry, anyone who says they knew Colome was going to be a trash fire to start the season is lying). Year three is still to be written.

He's definitely got talent, and seems like a fine pick for where we took him. My question on him is whether or not he can get deeper into games. Even at Nebraska, he was closer to a "5 and fly" guy, so I'm curious to see how he holds up in a full professional season and whether or not he can throw 7 innings in a game more than a couple of times in Ft. Myers. He pitched really well in his cup of coffee last year, but it was only 3 starts and 4 total appearance in the minors last year, and in that he only piled up 10 innings? Maybe they were babying his arm, but he only threw 81 innings for Nebraska in 15 starts. I don't want to see college teams Rice their pitchers, but I still wish this guy had a few more innings to back up the fine rate stats.

Not that big of a question, really. I love Glen, he was terrific for us once he moved to the 'pen, but Nathan was significantly better and more dominant. Nathan deserved a longer look, I think he's Hall-worthy. He doesn't get the recognition because he overlapped with rivera, the best of all-time. (It's like Tim Raines, who was always great, but people forgot about him because he overlapped with ickey, who was the greatest leadoff man of all-time)

Because then it becomes an old boys club where marginal players get in because a bunch of their pals are voting? There's a whole lotta marginal (at best) HoFers who are in because they were Friends of Frankie Frisch who basically stacked and ran the old veteran's committee. It's essentially how Harold Baines got in, and he's simply not deserving (a very good hitter, but never put up a truly great season, and for most of his long career was just a quality starter. The PED is complicated for a lot of people, and I'm ok with pushing the main culprits off the ballot as we try to get a little better historical context on the whole thing. there are reasonable arguments to put in guys like Bonds & Clemens who were truly great players even before the cloud of PED descended, but the idea that anyone who thinks they cheated and should be excluded is just some moralizing hypocrite is going too far, especially by the people who go on to claim that well, we can't really prove anything. I really don't think their exclusion has anything to do with whether Bonds was surly with media; it's people honestly trying to square how to handle the PED era, which really was a mess. And if you view it as cheating, which many not unreasonably do, then figuring out that context for something that is supposed to be one of the highest (and last) individual honor you can achieve in the sport isn't always easy. manny ramirez was one of the most feared hitters of his day, but was also caught using PEDs after a clear rule had been established and testing protocols instituted. He was also a headcase and a pain in the ass who quit on his teams. Alex Rodriguez was the best SS of his generation, combining elite offensive production with excellent defense at a premium position to be one of the game's signature players. He was also caught violating the league's PED rules after they had been clearly delineated and testing was put into place and was suspended for an entire season. How much do you weight the fact that they knowingly and intentionally broke the rules, ones that were installed in part because of players like them? It's simple to say, "meh, who cares, all that matters is the numbers" but simple isn't always right. And if it's just about the numbers, then why have a vote at all? Why not just induct the top 4 players by WAR every year, or some other static metric, or combination of metrics? Some subjectivity is part of what makes the game and the hall fun. It's part of what expands our minds on how we look at and think about the game as well. It drives innovation and experimentation, and that's good too. How much does leadership matter in a sport like baseball which is the least interactive of any of the "Big Four" sports (football, baseball, basketball, and hockey) but also has the longest season where interpersonal dynamics can have a major impact. we all know that a player who can play multiple positions has additional value because of that positional flexibility. But how much is that worth and how much impact on the team does it have? I'm here for the arguments about the Hall. Let's never be afraid to have them. But let's be careful of ones where there's a "anyone who thinks that" clause in there...

Because if the strain of playing SS gets him injured again, it's going to impact his offense. That's the bigger issue: he doesn't look like he can hold up health-wise there. The additional strain of having to play the position, the increased athletic demand over there appears to be one that he can't really handle, especially with his bum ankle. Polanco defensively is good at 2B, but average to poor at SS. Healthy Polanco is an excellent hitter at either middle infield spot, but injured Polanco loses a lot of his power production and is a much weaker threat. The odds of him staying healthy are better at 2B. He's better defensively there as well. Arraez is a nice hitter (but with no power) and a useful player, who has bad knees at age 24, and probably can't be counted on to play 150+ games in a season in the field. He's not a good SS either, but there's enough playing time to be found for him as the backup at 2B, 3B, LF, and DH to get him 120 games at the plate again. They need a real SS, someone who can play at least average defense there, not another guy whose best position is anywhere but SS, but "can" play SS.

I'm still on the Trevor Story train. Based on our supposed budget (which I maintain is $10M less than everyone talks about it as, because I'm convinced Twins management will be escrowing at least that much "from the budget" to cover any bonuses for Buxton) we still have the money to drop $25M per year on Story. And a) I think he's worth it, b) I'd rather allocate resources to a high-value player at a premium position than on extra crappy "veteran starters" and overrated bullpen guys, c) I don't see Polanco holding up at SS: I see the move as being rough on the defense, bad for his health, and bad for his bat, and d) I don't see Arraez holding up as a regular 2B with his knees. This move is convenient, but not good. Polanco is not the answer at SS IMHO. If they won't sign Story, get a glove guy in here, trade for someone, something. But Polanco can be an all-star at 2B and we should leave him there. (and frankly, I think the front office and manager agrees with me on this one)