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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Rogers might be a good fit, but coming off a season where he made $12M does anyone really think he's only getting $3M or so? He's probably landing in the $4-6M range, which isn't bargain bin. I still like him as a fit to bounce back a little, be a primary lefty in the bullpen to take pressure off Funderburk, and with his experience take on a 9th inning role as appropriate to take pressure off someone like Sands too. But he won't be a bargain bin guy.
  2. jmlease1
    It's certainly possible for all of these guys to regress, I guess? But Jeffers is more likely than any of them, just because playing catcher is awfully hard on players and he's been on a multi-year slide from his peak in 2023. And I think people think of regression of a big dip in production, which might not happen for any of these guys. Ryan is a candidate because 2025 was his best season as a pro, but it doesn't mean he actually will regress. He's in his prime, he keeps working on things, so while he might slip back a little, there's little reason to think he won't be very very good. Maybe next season he puts up a 120 ERA+. Technically that's "regression" but, there's little evidence to suggest that he's going to slide back to being more of a league average pitcher or something. Buxton is a candidate only in that he had such an excellent season. But Buck has had season like this before, in fact has been on track for even higher peaks than this excepting that injury screwed him, so outside of him being in his 30's now there's no reason to predict he's going to drop off; it's not like 2025 was a fluke. Clemens is a weird case: 2025 was a career best season for him, but some of that was also related to him getting opportunity. His 2024 doesn't look that much different when you pro-rate it out for a full season. Frankly, we saw the regression from Clemens during the year in 2025 after his hot streak came to a close. It's why so many of us are talking about him as if he should be a borderline case to make the roster and how we really don't want him being handed a starting role in the lineup. SWR is not a case for regression, IMHO. He's only 25 and still figuring things out, but he also keeps getting written off while every time he gets asked to step in he gets the job done. There might be some fluctuation in his stats based on some of the underlying numbers...but there also might be improvement as he continues to refine his pitches and hopefully doesn't lose time & weight to a parasite next season. Give up on SWR at your own risk. Frankly, Keaschall is a bigger risk to regress in 2026; if you're using BABIP against SWR, you'd better use it against Keaschall; dude finished the season with a BABIP of .340, which is at least as unsustainable as SWR's. Keaschall also very much struggled to close the season: .685 OPS the last month or so to end the year was not good and could indicate that opposing pitchers had figured out a way to attack him. Do I think he's going to have a significant regression in 2026? No, because I am very high on him as a player. But he's absolutely a candidate for "most likely to" if that's who we're trying to ID here.
  3. jmlease1
    I mean, the bullpen is decimated to the point where they simply can't stay internal and expect to have a competent bullpen in 2026. so if they plan to force bullpen moves on a lot of guys, we'll know they're not serious about competing in 2026. Unless the Cheap and Incompetent Pohlad ownership sets a payroll level designed to guarantee 8 figure profits for the family and it's new investors, they should have sufficient resources to add some external arms to supplement the internal options. But there's zero reason to trust the Cheap and Incompetent Pohald ownership when it comes to money, unfortunately. It would make sense to shift Raya & probably Preilipp to the bullpen, and Adams and Ohl have already made the move. Do they really need to move anyone else right now? And if the Cheap and Incompetent Pohlads functionally force a trade of Lopez or Ryan then we'll need the starting pitching depth.
  4. jmlease1
    Well, we also didn't have much choice on Vazquez, and his hitting wasn't expected to be quite this awful when we signed him. Vazquez's career OPS+ (after 3 years of really poor hitting with the Twins) is a career high for Rortvedt. Sure, Rortvedt showed signs of life with the Dodgers (and props to him for not only winning a title but actually putting him some offense) but it's a really small sample size. he was so dreadful at the plate for TB that he was basically unplayable. 2024 is the only season Rortvedt has even been a solid backup, really. He's also had a history of struggling to stay on the field. I might have taken a flier on him but at the same time I can't really say anyone who passed on him on waivers was wrong.
  5. jmlease1
    think that was Ted Knight as Judge Smails, but you are correct: you need the solid guys that can just produce as good regulars for 3-5 seasons, even if they never quite reach all-star status. Some of those guys will have a big season one year too and when a few of those guys have a career year at the same time, things get real interesting.
  6. jmlease1
    The ceilings are pretty high on the Twin's top prospects, which is exciting. It's great to have top prospects that are so close to MLB as well, because we need the talent infusion. I hope the Twins don't durdle around with these guys and block them from MLB exposure with washed up veterans or struggling prospects who are on multiple tries to crack MLB too much. If Rodriguez is healthy, he's ready for a shot at MLB, I think. Health is the only thing that seems to hold him back, though I'm sure some fans will (already have?) turn quickly on him because of the K's. But I'd much rather see Emma on the 26-man than Outman. Jenkins making AAA last season was an accomplishment. I'm in less of a rush for him because I would like to see him start a season healthy, and kick butt in AAA at least a little (while he was far from bad, he didn't dominate by a long start). But if he's killing it in spring training, raking in AAA, etc I'd much rather see him in MLB than trying to salvage something from Outman, or even acting like Roden can't be pushed aside. K-Pep had an excellent season. Showed he was worth the first round pick and the defensive quality surprised a lot of evaluators. It'll be interesting to see how aggressive they are with him. Starting him back in Wichita wouldn't be egregious, but it would be exciting to see him get bumped to AAA and have him being pushing Brooks Lee sooner rather than later. Tait is the one we'll need more patience with, I think. He's got a ways to go with his bat, though the pop is good to see. He needs to be more selective at the plate, and there's refinement to be done on his glove as well. But the tools are there. He's so young, I suspect he's back at Cedar Rapids to start, but a midseason bump would be an excellent result for him. he held his own at 18 in high A, that's pretty dang good. Abel is getting to "put up or shut up" range. But the talent is there. He's got an electric arm and you could see in how he dominated in Saint Paul that he's got the ability. He got knocked around in his first try at MLB, but he also had stretches where he stood up. He needs refinement, but he's close. The last step can be a doozy, though.
  7. jmlease1
    in the clubhouse, probably. On the field? while admittedly he hasn't had a lot to work with with guys running the bases, he also had way too many instances of late signals, changing his mind (occasionally changing it multiple times on the same play), etc for fans to feel much confidence in him there. Perhaps players were starting to go, "hey, Tommy, you're a great dude, but..."
  8. jmlease1
    Some of it depends on how much he wants to catch and how much opportunity he sees in Houston. If Alvarez is relatively healthy, he's not getting those starts at DH and with the twins he'd likely get 60-80 starts at catcher, plus some 1B/DH time along with pinch hitting. Absent injuries, he's likely to see less playing time in Houston. The throwing is a real question, but last season was a bit of an aberration. If he lands closer to his career averages, then he's certainly passable and very similar to Jeffers in that area. Not great, but not dreadful either. It's fair to wonder if he's hit a decline phase in that area of his game, but it's also possible that only getting 400 or so innings at the position could have been impactful (either in terms of smaller sample size or just not finding as much rhythm)
  9. jmlease1
    Isn't part of the question going to be whether or not any of the twins high-ceiling prospects get enough opportunity? I think one of the OF could certainly get in consideration (especially Jenkins, who could be awesome) but Twins are most likely going to give Roden another chance first, and seem to be still hell-bent on keeping Outman (who has no options left). Seems likely that they'll be dumpster diving for 1B rather than give someone like Fedko a shot early (and while he had an excellent season, I'm pumping the brakes on his MLB prospects) and it seems unlikely they'll jump Culpepper straight from AA, so it might be limited opportunity (especially early on) that will keep some of the position players from getting a real chance to contend for RoY. I hope I'm wrong. Didn't realize that Abel was eligible; he certainly could make it happen, especially if the fire sale continues. I do like him as a starter.
  10. jmlease1
    I mean, 20/20 hindsight and all. But that's part of why the beaning is potentially such a meaningful part of this story (and I'm absolutely baffled why it's left out of the original article): we're never really going to know if Miranda's collapse was because the league figured him out, adjusted, and he never could make the counter-adjustments to overcome, or because he was never the same guy after getting drilled in the head. It's one thing to trade high on a guy (like the Twins did with Arraez) that you expect to decline because of where their skills are, how the league will adjust, etc and another to trade a guy because you're able to predict catastrophic injury might derail his entire career. And we simply don't know (and may never know, unless Miranda decides to start talking) if the beaning really did change everything for him. The results suggest yes? Did Miranda fall apart because he was never really that good in the first place, because of injuries, or a combination of both? Not really sure, but I suspect the injuries, especially the beaning played a significant part in it. He may never get it back, but regardless I think he has to go somewhere else to try. He had a miserable time in Saint Paul last season, and clearly needs a fresh start. I wish him luck.
  11. jmlease1
    Rough go for Billy Amick: struggling to get hits AND not playing much. He's probably looking forward to the end of the AFL, some time off, and a reset before going back to Cedar Rapids to give it a new go. Boadas has been bad ass, but the walks are unsustainable. Will be interesting to see if he can control his electric arm next season and move up.
  12. jmlease1
    There's a real chance that Noah Miller is going to be available in Rule 5 draft this year, I believe. Would love to know exactly what he's improved on, since he still looks exactly like the same slap hitter as always. Are you banking on his performance at AA this year, where he finally topped .700 for his OPS? That's betting a lot on 27 games, because after promotion to AAA, he was quite poor in double the amount of opportunity. Unless you want to count his rehab assignment back in rookie ball at age 22 for 8 games, Miller has never: hit over .300, had an OBP over .350, had a SLG anywhere near .400 at any level of professional baseball. His career OPS is .645. While spending the bulk of the season in AAA, he had a .612 OPS in a hitters league; the league average OPS was .803. He's a fine defensive SS, but he's a truly terrible hitter. Even if he's available in the Rule 5, $100K plus a 26-man roster spot is too high a price. It certainly won't help Shelton improve the performance of the lineup. Brooks Lee is struggling mightily at the plate in MLB, but his career OPS in the minors is nearly 200 points higher than Noah Miller's. Imagine how ugly things would get for Miller, who has absolutely positively never ever shown Brooks Lee's ability at the plate? Hmm...maybe try another argument: Noah Miller strikes out more per game in the minors than Brooks Lee did. :P
  13. jmlease1
    Non-tendering or releasing Sands, Topa, or Wallner is organizational malpractice and a fireable offense. (suggesting it because you hope the front office is that stupid and will get itself fired because you hate them and want them gone is also silly) But yes: there's plenty of room still to move: Gasper, Julien, Outman, Kiersey, & McCusker (I doubt they're exposing a guy they just claimed in Kriedler) can be moved off with little loss or risk. I expect to see these types of guys moved off if/when trades and signings happen as they have marginally more value to the needy Twins. Maybe they'll take a pitcher they think could be a bullpen choice in the Rule 5, but seems unlikely: they need proven help not more young talent to sort through that they can't option.
  14. jmlease1
    Sure. Realistically, the Twins need to settle on a backup. I'm not going to throw a fit if it's Fitz. It's the same issue at catcher: Twins need another guy who can realistically play there (I'm having trouble believing in Gasper, but maybe Paredes can serve?)
  15. jmlease1
    The 40-man is already down to 33, they don't even need to drop anyone else (though I'd say there's still several options to move on from with little to no pain hanging on)
  16. jmlease1
    Rosario & Fedko are interesting; both show some promise, but have flaws and question marks. Rosario isn't much of a defender, has struggles to make consistent contact, and has never played above AA, so while he finished very well in 2025 and should be in AAA in 2026, he seems likely to get unprotected...I think no one will grab him, and even if they do, they'll have trouble holding him on the MLB roster for the season. Fedko is more chancy: he made it to AAA, hit well there, and can play CF in a pinch. I think they should protect him, and if I were a team like the Rockies or the ChiSox who are going nowhere I'd take a shot on him. The only real negative there is his age and how last season was the first time he didn't need to repeat a level to have some success there. Olivar will pass through just fine, and after Cory Lewis' rotten 2025 I think he's pretty safe too. Olivares is too far away to stick; seems unlikely that anyone will carry him for a full season even in the bullpen. I'm not as high on Klein as others. Maybe he's a relief option? I mean, there's still plenty of chaff to drop off the 40-man IMHO so it wouldn't be hard to make room, but I'm not losing sleep on Klein. The 6 no brainers all make sense. Add Fedko to the list and be done.
  17. jmlease1
    I'm fine with taking a shot in 2026 with Lee as the primary SS; there's nothing interesting on the free agent market and I'd rather not eff up Culpepper's development by throwing him in the fire straight out of AA, much as I like how he's done so far. (dude was gassed by the end of the season, so letting him build it up in the minors makes sense) But the Twins do need to ID a backup SS, because right now the next best option at SS that's a lock to make the 26-man is Royce Lewis. The free agents are uninspiring, so maybe rolling with Fitz (a good organizational soldier) as the utility guy ain't the worst idea. It's probably a better option than Noah Miller, who can't hit. Miller is a legit defender at SS, but he's going to get overwhelmed at the plate in MLB. Vazquez would look like a Silver Slugger next to Miller. (It's notable that the Dodgers supposedly great player development system didn't improve Miller in any significant way) I suspect he'll be available in the Rule 5, but taking him is an act of desperation.
  18. jmlease1
    The thin market is why we might be looking at Fitzy as the backup until Culpepper is ready. But it's also why the Twins keep spending high draft picks on guys they think can play SS. Riding Fitz as the backup in 2026 isn't the worst idea in the world, especially if you think Culpepper is going to start in AAA and you feel confident in how he's going to handle it. I guess I'm not super excited about IKF, but the Twins liked him a few years ago well enough so who knows.
  19. jmlease1
    when you have too many players that should be platooning, and players in prolonged slumps, then you're going to see a lot more lineup shuffling. Add in injuries and that's the way it goes. Or would you prefer to go back to the Gardy days when he'd bat the 2B in the 2-hole regardless of who it was?
  20. jmlease1
    Personally, I'd have Buxton do it, unless he adamant about leading off. Have either Austin Martin or Keaschall lead off and drop Buck into the 3 spot where his power plays a little more with ducks on the pond. To me the bigger problem with the lineup is the lack of a LH/SH option to be confident in to drop in the 2 hole; right now the best option might be Brooks Lee, who hasn't hit enough for the job, and is slow enough that he might bounce into a lot of DPs unless we stay super-mondo-aggressive on the basepaths. (Now, Walker Jenkins could solve this problem quickly, but I suspect he won't get an Opening Day job, nor will the Twins drop him in the top half of the order right away.) Without signing anyone, here's where I'd land on the batting order: Martin Lee (if he takes a step forward. ugh.) Buxton Wallner Keaschall Clemens Lewis Roden (if he takes a step forward. ugh) Jeffers I could also see flopping Roden & Lee easily, and if you're comfortable stacking 3 RH batters, dropping Keaschall in the #2 hole is fine (I would then move Lewis ahead of Clemens in the 5 hole; prefer to avoid back-to-back lefties). But Buxton anchoring the lineup from the 3 spot makes the most sense to me right now. Writing out a batting order certainly does...clarify Twins hitting needs. Because right now you'd need Martin to be for real, Lee to improve significantly, Wallner to bounce back, Clemens to be more consistent, Lewis to bounce back, and Roden to improve significantly to have a quality lineup. That's a lot of ifs, and Jules don't want to hear about no MFing ifs! But with Buck in the #3 spot, the top half of the lineup could be pretty credible. If Buxton doesn't want to leave the leadoff spot and pushes back, Keaschall is probably the next best option, for now.
  21. jmlease1
    It's an interesting but limited form of assessment going on here. Because they're only picking out the guys that were listed as BA's "top prospect", you don't have someone like Chuck Knoblauch on the list whom the Twins drafted, developed and was immediately impactful and became a star player with the Twins (rookie of the year, 4-time all-star, Gold Glove) before they sold high on him. He'd crush Jay Bell and be a far more reasonable pick for 1991 than Rich Garces, but Garces almost certainly ranked higher for BA because he was younger. Twins at least had 2 of their "top BA prospects" make it to the Hall of Fame. Brewers are going to need Sheff to get the nod or they're going to be a zero for this exercise. Detroit had the immortal Jeremy Bonderman make their Mount RushWAR. Tom Gordon is on KC's, simply because he played for a million years (almost 2/3 of which was with someone else)
  22. jmlease1
    That might be fun! Maybe a tribute to the late, great Fernando Valenzuela? But it's also a pitch that's supposed to be hard on the arm. Think there's very few guys that throw it any longer; not sure there was one in MLB last season. It'd probably be effective if a pitcher could master it because it's so rare now, but also might lead to your elbow exploding, so...
  23. jmlease1
    I doubt there was a single possible hire that would have said much different. While it might have been satisfying to parts of the fanbase to hear the new manager come in and rip Wallner for his low contact rates and high K's, bash Brooks Lee for his low quality contact, beat up on Royce for swinging at everything, etc but would it have been productive? Clearly Shelton doesn't think so with this quote: He's probably right. he's got to establish relationships with the players and build trust in order to make an impact and create change. Getting detailed on player flaws from last season (and there certainly were plenty) in public out the gate is unlikely to help him do that. It will be interesting to see if some of the premise of this piece plays out: that guys failed last season and will be more open to hearing new advice or approaches to their game. You hope they will, but I'm guessing there will at least be some who will be looking backwards ("what did I do to get here in the first place? I need to do more of THAT") and not necessarily forwards.
  24. jmlease1
    My brain knows it's not logical or realistic, but my heart can't give up on Canterino either. It'd be great if he could finally somehow stay on the field. The stuff has been awesome whenever he's actually been able to throw. Don't know if that damaged wing will ever be able to hold up enough to let him show is talent in The Show, but I keep holding out hope. I freely admit it: it's totally ridiculous to bet on Canterino being a real contributor to the Twins in 2026. And yet...
  25. jmlease1
    Lopez being back and healthy is a very good sign for the rotation and the Twins prospects in 2026. It's fair to be concerned that he's going to get dealt for prospects in a salary dump: Cheap Pohlads have given no reason to write this off. But right now, he's our guy, and having him lead the rotation is impactful for sure. I have trouble getting too excited about Festa at this point, though it is good news that they're expecting him to start throwing soon and be ready for a normal spring training. But it's still hope not reality yet, and his injury and recovery are one to worry about. Until we actually see him throwing in spring training, I don't know how you can slot him into any role. Twins have talent and depth in the rotation, and it's the best part of the team right now. But they still have questions there, and with the Cheap Pohlads still playing mystery box on payroll, it's reasonable to be fearful that more salary dumps are pending and no effort to compete in 2026 will be coming.
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