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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Rodon is the one who moves the needle in the FA pool. He's worth the risk, i think. Syndergaard is kind of interesting, but more likely raises the floor than elevates the ceiling. I'm having trouble figuring out what his market is, since he's been essentially dropped from the playoff rotation, but didn't have a bad year overall. Really hard to know if he might find another gear a full season past injury, or whether this is who he likely is as a pitcher from now on. Not sure he's better than say, Joe Ryan any longer. There's some interesting names listed on the trade group, but why would the Padres move on from Snell? Gallen would be a great fit, but a) would take a metric truckload to pry him loose, and b) not sure AZ is really interested in moving him.
  2. jmlease1
    Give the twins a little credit; Duran had never pitched above low A before joining the Twins, and he was in their system about as long as he was in the D-backs. That's still a development success story, when you can move a pitcher from low-A to MLB success.
  3. jmlease1
    we traded away two catchers, but brought back one in the deal. Garver was injured and declined at the plate for Texas, only catching 14 games and only playing in 54. Rortvedt was also injured and hit so poorly in AAA that he couldn't crack the Yankees MLB roster. Sanchez and Jeffers caught more games than Garver/Rortvedt combined last season. Heck, if Jeffers had caught a couple more games, they would have EACH caught more games than Garver/Rortvedt combined. I'd say the Twins won out on that deal, even with Jeffers sustaining a significant injury that cost him a lot of time. And I say that as someone who kept buying Ben Rortvedt stock even after I should have realized that he just can't hit. I generally agree with the basic proposition that the twins should not be bringing in veteran starters unless they add to the top end of the rotation. (I usually framed it against Joe Ryan not Sonny Gray, but the idea is the same) Can we count on Mahle, Gray, Maeda, & Ryan to be a #1 for a full season? not without assuming a lot of risk. But we're better off riding that risk than throwing $12M at another Dylan Bundy type who can eat innings but only do it at a below league-average ability. They don't need to trade for rotation depth any longer, and they don't need to sign re-treads when they have Mahle, Gray, Maeda, Ryan, Ober, Varland, Woods Richardson, Winder, and Dobnak already on the 40-man, with Paddack eventually coming back, Sands still being a possibility, and Balazovic as an option as well. But it seems unlikely that trade is where they're going to find that top-end pitcher at this point. the minors are getting thinner with prospects, and frankly the twins need to keep their pipeline going. Right now they have cash available, so if they're not going to spend it on Correa or one of the other top SS, then dropping big money on a top starter seems a reasonable risk. the floor is getting covered now. raise the ceiling, please.
  4. jmlease1
    Austin Martin is like Don Baylor out there. (no complaints, as long as it doesn't cause him to miss time) Julien is going to be an interesting guy to watch. Right now he seems to be a player that doesn't expand the strike zone, waits for his pitch and hammers it. That's easier to do in the minors with less refined pitchers and an automated strike zone, but he's performed at every level so at a certain point you simply can't dismiss it. He's making plenty of contact and really commands the strike zone. Really his biggest drawback is he doesn't stand out defensively anywhere. he's not the worst defender at 2B, but he's also not particularly good, which means he really needs to hit his way to the majors. I'm curious about his overall speed; he was a terrific base-stealer in A-ball, and wasn't bad in AA last season and if he can be a consistent threat on the basepaths, that certainly will help his overall profile. Suspect he will start the season in AAA and get some time in MLB when an injury strikes, especially if Urshela sticks around. But he's another reason why it's unlikely Gio gets a multi-year deal from the Twins.
  5. jmlease1
    oof, guess they're struggling to figure out 1B defense? or maybe it was just particularly uninspiring this year? Luis is weirdly a decent choice out of these finalists, but he only played 65 games there. Vlad played more games there, but wasn't terribly good, but was better than Rizzo? I guess it's better than the year that Palmeiro won it while spending 80% of his time at DH...
  6. jmlease1
    well, I'm not "jimmy", but whatev. Can you name a single instance of someone refusing to sign with a team because their SS defense sucked? Top pitchers do like big markets, because they pay the best, the endorsement opportunities are higher, etc. They also generally spend more and win more consistently. Gerrit Cole signed with the Yankees and I'm pretty sure the fact that Gleyber Torres was their SS didn't really impact the discussion. Didi Gregorius slipped enough at SS for the Yankees to move on from him, but it didn't get in the way of Zack Wheeler signing with the Phillies...and he's not been a good defender for them either (and in fact has been so bad on both ends that they would be a contender for Correa!). You're right: Gordon has been better defensively as an OF than an infielder, and I wouldn't consider him a great candidate to hold down SS even as an interim, and I think the Twins agree. But if we pay the money and get the years right, it wouldn't matter if he was out starting SS: a pitcher would sign, absent other complicating factors.
  7. jmlease1
    As a bridge option if they fail to re-sign Correa (or one of the other quality FA SS that are out there), he's one of the better options. But still not a great one. I'm more enthusiastic about him than Jose Iglesias, I guess? I think there's a chance he could be a 2 bWAR player next season, but I wouldn't expect the ceiling to be any higher. This feels a little like the "break glass in case of emergencies" option? He should not be a first, second, or third choice really.
  8. jmlease1
    If the money & years are right, it won't matter who is plugged in at SS. Just like it won't bring anybody in at a discount having Byron Buxton patrolling CF. Yes, players want to win and will look at the overall status of the club when deciding to sign somewhere, but at the end of the day FA signings have a lot more to do with years and dollars than anything else. It's the opportunity to make life-changing, generational wealth, even if it means playing with a guy who uses a frying pan rather than a glove behind them. Besides, people can convince themselves of anything: "They'll address SS next season. He's better than you think. Better team defense will make it look ok. I strike out everybody anyways." and so on...
  9. jmlease1
    Does he, though? And while it may just have been small sample size and adjustment period to the majors, but Palacios was dreadful at the plate, looking almost completely helpless in his brief turn. Nico Hoerner is a much, much better option than Palacios and it's not really close. Hoerner's presence on this list really just highlights the possibility that the Cubs won't be bidding on Correa, Turner, or Boegarts this off-season, which would be to the Twins favor by reducing the number of bigger market teams that might bigfoot an offer. Doesn't mean the Twins will get any kind of discount on Correa, but fewer teams bidding is always better for us.
  10. jmlease1
    To be fair to Nick, the premise of the article is to look at possible trade options at SS, with essentially the assumption that the Twins fail to sign one of the top FA (or don't make the attempt). He's not saying "The Twins should trade for one of these guys" as the best option for the team, just trying to evaluate what are some likely trade targets that might actually be available.
  11. jmlease1
    Whoof. None of these are particularly inspiring. Crawford has a lot of risk. The ceiling is realistically not that high; 2021 looks like a fluke year nested among a bunch of decline years. Literally everything went right for him in 2021 (including a big jump in BABIP). realistically anyone acquiring him can't expect more than a 2-3 bWAR year...and that's on the high end. He's averaged less than 2 bWAR over the past 5 years, and that's with that huge, all-star performance coming in out of nowhere. Hard pass. I'd be pretty concerned about handing things over to Ahmed for the season too. Shoulder surgery is not a great injury for a SS and if he's lost any strength in that shoulder, his ability to impact the game defensively will seriously decline no matter how good his glove skills are. Arm strength at SS really matters, and Ahmed offers little offensively to offset it. He had a nice run from 28-30, but was terrible in 2021 and seriously injured in 2022. Pass. IKF is the best option of the 3, IMHO, but he's not going to get too many people's socks rolling up and down. He's the most likely to stay a strong defensive player and while his offense isn't much (there's no pop in his bat at all, but he's a respectable base-stealer which will make some people happy) He'll hit enough singles to not be a black hole. (and he makes enough contact to avoid the ire of some of the fan base) I'm not enthusiastic, but as a backup plan/bridge option, he's not terrible. His weak bat would be easier to tolerate if we didn't have so many key players coming off injury.
  12. jmlease1
    That's a team failure not an individual one. We landed in 3rd and finished below .500 because we had the second-most games lost to injuries in baseball and fielded a lineup that had too many AAA players who aren't MLB caliber or were washed up veterans in the 2nd half. But that argument is one that applies to any single player in baseball; if the team is bad, one player doesn't make much difference. Taking Correa off the team probably doesn't land us in 4th, but it does mean we're not as competitive as we were for as long as we were. But I don't think you're arguing against the Twins having good players or signing talented ones, it just seems like you don't think Correa is really a star player and worth a big salary, and that opinion seems based on feel, not stats & production.
  13. jmlease1
    as they say: "Let's go to the video tape!" Carlos Correa OPS by month: Mar/Apr .633 May .884 June 1.012 July .614 Aug .776 Sept/Oct 1.001 Doesn't look like he waited for the end of the year to buff his stats, his best month was actually June. His 3rd best was May. He finished the year at a 140 OPS+ which is absolutely stellar, and the best on the club (sorry, Royce: 12 games doesn't qualify you). First half OPS: .803, Second half .866. (I'm also fairly convinced that if he had tailed off at the end of the season, a segment of the fanbase would have trashed him for not coming through late in the year when we "needed him" or something) Houston bet on a young player they had developed and it worked out for them. If Royce Lewis had finished the season healthy, I suspect the twins would be making the same bet...but he's not. He's having another knee surgery. I love the kid, and I root for him, but he's got another barrier up and Correa is as close to a sure thing as I've seen. I'd rather bet long term deals on position players than pitchers. and Correa is exactly the kind of guy I'd push my chips in for. Truly great player, plays a premium position, has skills that will age well, and appears to have every intangible you could ask for.
  14. jmlease1
    I think that's probably fair. The other positive is that power can often be the last skill to develop in a successful hitter, and this may be an issue that can be slowly ironed out as he gets stronger and more comfortable. there's no question about his ability to control the strike zone, other than maybe a need to be a little more selective in what he offers at, even when in the zone...which again is something that develops with time. Just don't know if he's good enough defensively to stick at SS; he'll be fine in CF or 2B/3B at worst and a plus defender in a corner for sure so it's not like he's a guy we can't find a defensive home for. It's just that we need a SS so badly!
  15. jmlease1
    He's not really that good. He's the definition of "ok". He hasn't hit for more than a 40 game stretch since he was 23, his defense has clearly slipped since he turned 30, and most years he's more of a quality backup/utility level player, not a starter. not a fan of Iglesias, and think he would be a poor fit. I'd rather see them run Nick Gordon out there than waste a roster spot on Iglesias hoping that he'll have a career renaissance at 33. Andrus is only a year older, coming off a better season, and has a better track record. He probably won't be a 3 bWAR player next season, but I think he's more likely to be 2+ bWAR than Iglesias. Neither option is terribly exciting.
  16. jmlease1
    Smeltzer was behind Mahle, Gray, Maeda, Ryan, Ober, Varland, Winder and Woods Richardson in the starter pecking order and rightfully so. (When Paddack comes back, he'd be behind him too. He might be behind Sands) Should they be spending a roster spot on the 40-man for a depth pitcher who profiles as a 5th starter and didn't seem to have a future as a reliever? I wish him luck in his next stop, but he's a borderline MLB player and doesn't do anything to move the needle for the Twins rotation right now.
  17. jmlease1
    I would go hard at Correa. He wants 7 years? I'd do it. He insists on 8? No problem. He wants AAV of $40M? ok, I'm probably out. $30-35M AAV? I'm interested. I start to wobble when the AAV tops $35M. I'll be very curious to see what the market is for Correa. There are obviously teams that will be interested, but there might not be a lot of big market, unlimited payroll teams. Yankees might balk at paying for Judge & Correa in the same year. Dodgers are likely to try to keep their guy. Same for the Red Sox, and even if Bogaerts moves on, they already have Trevor Story that they could slide over. (especially since Story prefers playing SS) Cubs should be in the mix, but the Mets already have Lindor. Phillies could be in it, but Cards won't. Giants? Mariners? Twins make as much sense as anyone, except for the assumption that they won't spend the money or commit the years. It'll be interesting to see what the range is on this one, and whether his AAV comes down a little with additional years or not. Boras won't give anyone a discount, that's for sure.
  18. jmlease1
    It's great to see Martin having such a strong performance in the AFL. the talent is there, and he may have just needed a little re-set. Be great if he can settle in with a swing and not need to make significant adjustments. Not sure if he can step in at SS (his defense there has been questioned even more than Brooks Lee) but his ability to get on base while showing that he can be a quality base-stealer says to me it won't be that long before we see him in MLB. AFL level of competition is usually compared to AA, I think? Not sure what position he slots into, but they'll find a place for him if he can get on base like this. (Should we celebrate or worry about his HBP numbers? it helps him get on base, but...ouch! 3 in only 8 games in the AFL)
  19. jmlease1
    Because he hasn't said it to you explicitly and personally? I mean, no one in these jobs goes out in public and says "Hey, I screwed up." And literally none of them are keen on admitting they were wrong. But they certainly made adjustments this season that were tacit admissions that they hadn't gotten their offseason right when they traded for a starter and 2 relievers at the deadline.
  20. jmlease1
    agreed. and while there's criticism to be made to the front office in getting stuck in the sunk cost fallacy, there's also a pretty significant difference between how Happ & Shoemaker performed vs Bundy & Archer. Happ had an ERA+ of 63 and Shoemaker 53. Bundy & Archer were at 79 & 85 respectively. That's not good, but it's also not dreadful in the same way that the other two were. Varland and SWR also started the season in AA. Let's not pretend they were really ready to step in to the rotation in June.
  21. jmlease1
    I'm unenthusiastic about Iglesias. he's got zero power and I'm of the opinion that he's not exactly an elite defender at this stage in his career. I'd probably go for Elvis Andrus if you just wanted a bridge option to Royce Lewis or Brooks Lee. but I would definitely prefer they sign Correa to the 7 year deal (even 8?) we'd need to get it done. he's a terrific player, and outstanding defensive player whose skills are likely to age well at the position. (Correa makes the exceptional plays more through his powerful arm, tremendous wingspan, and intelligent positioning over footspeed and quickness, IMHO) he hits for a good average, he hits for good power as a SS, and he takes walks. he's a great teammate and a really smart player. I watched him on the broadcast the other night talking SS play with Jimmy Rollins and I'm on Team Correa. I love Royce Lewis, but unless you're going to get an elite starter (and the market is a bit dicey for that), I would be thrilled to lock down an all-star SS for the rest of the decade. I'm completely baffled that people seem to think Correa wasn't good this season, because to me he passes every single test.
  22. jmlease1
    This is fun! I've done one in the semi-realism world...maybe I should try one in the "total flight of fancy" universe?
  23. jmlease1
    Here's a bridge option to get us to the Royce Lewis era at SS with Andrus while increasing the top end of the rotation, by making a run at Rodon. Wil Myers takes the Garlick role; he can still bash lefties while being less helpless against righties. Barnhart adds a lefty hitting catcher to give Jeffers breaks against the toughest righties. Maeda is an option to go to the bullpen as a guy who has the skills to go multiple innings with Winder to help bridge the "5 and Fly" guys to the late, 1 inning options. Is $25M enough to get it done with Rodon? don't know, but the team could roll the dice on Garlick instead of Myers and save some $ there. C: Ryan Jeffers ($0.70M) 1B: Luis Arraez ($4.50M) 2B: Jorge Polanco ($7.50M) 3B: Gio Urshela ($9.00M) SS: Elvis Andrus ($10.00M) LF: Alex Kirilloff ($0.70M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Max Kepler ($8.50M) DH: Jose Miranda ($0.70M) 4th OF: Wil Myers ($7.00M) Utility: Nick Gordon ($0.70M) Utility: Gilberto Celestino ($0.70M) Backup C: Tucker Barnhart ($3.00M) SP1: Sonny Gray ($12.00M) SP2: Tyler Mahle ($8.00M) SP3: Carlos Rodon ($25.0M) SP4: Joe Ryan ($0.70M) SP5: Bailey Ober ($0.70M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.00M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.00M) RP: Josh Winder ($0.70M) RP: Kenta Maeda ($9.00M) RP: Jovani Moran ($0.70M) Payroll is 5.57% under budget
  24. jmlease1
    Duran was so dominant and was truly elite, so he's a worthy winner here. but I do want to give some love to Joe Ryan, a pitcher I really enjoy watching on the mound, but whom I also think is a quality pitcher. I'm a fan of Game Score as a quick way of evaluating how good a pitcher's start was and as a metric for evaluating their season as a whole (only one piece, but an interesting one IMHO). 50 is average, which is fairly easy to wrap your brain around, so 45-59 are starts that are decent, 60-74 are very good, 75+ is great. (flip side, 35-44 is poor, and below 35 is disaster zone). YMMV on how I break it out; FanGraphs does it differently, but they also use 2.0 Ryan had 4 starts of 75+, 9 that were 60-74, 6 from 45-59, 7 that were in the poor range of 35-44, and 2 that were disasters. For a rookie, that's not a bad ratio of quality to crap. He's still got some things to work on and improve, but there's no doubt in my mind that he's a rotation stalwart for this team and he had a terrific rookie season.
  25. jmlease1
    Nick Gordon deserves this, and good for him. He's gotten his health in order and it's allowed him to take advantage of his talent and hard work and be a useful player. It's unlikely he's going to end up at the star level people might have hoped for from a top 5 draft pick, but there's no question that he looks like a MLB player. I was surprised at how much more pop he had in his bat this season, and that's going to be great if he can build on that. He slipped back a little in Sept, so it's possible that the league started adjusting to his changes in approach and improved ability to punish mistakes, but it's equally possible he was having to take more ABs against lefties and being put in positions where he was less likely to succeed. I like him as a utility guy who can platoon for multiple positions. (can we find the right-handed version of him in the off-season?) Jax handled his shift to the bullpen well and looks like someone who can be counted on to pitch in the 6-7th innings pretty consistently. the slider has turned into a real weapon. I think if he locates his fastball better (stay out of the heart of the plate, Griffin!) it's good enough to pair with that nasty slider, but he's going to have refine the changeup rather significantly or walk away from it. It's been a big part of his arsenal against LHB but it's not very effective right now and I think that's the next step for his evolution if he's going to be a late-game beast.
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