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TheLeviathan

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Everything posted by TheLeviathan

  1. TheLeviathan
    Agreed. I think people ignore that the expanded playoffs have not created a frenzy at the deadline either. With everyone believing they're in it it's created a trade market with very few sellers. Baseball's flukey playoff nature should make it imperative not to water it down more. You want your true contenders battling not some lucky bunch of scrubs who get hot in the small sample. At least whoever gets hot and wins it will have earned the right to be there.
  2. TheLeviathan
    This team is hitting .273 with RISP this season, which despite the slide in August, is still third best in the league. They're hitting 30 points higher than their usual average in those situations. Their BABIP is .319 with RISP. Their nemesis this entire season was always going to be regression. It's been lurking behind the curtain with a steel chair from day one.
  3. TheLeviathan
  4. TheLeviathan
  5. TheLeviathan
    I think two things that seem somewhat contradictory but I believe they are totally reasonable: KAM had TERRIBLE drafts. I'm also not sure if he's a bad drafter. Between the Wilfs pressuring him to competitively rebuild and coaches hounding him for "their guys"....I think he might have gotten hosed.
  6. TheLeviathan
    Buck...I love ya....but go get your hip fixed.
  7. TheLeviathan
    I hate the idea of expansion except for one small carve-out - a return to the four division layout of old. I'd bring in Nashville and Charlotte personally and do this: Twins with the Cubs, White Sox, Brewers, Cardinals, Guardians, Tigers, Reds. Angels-Dodgers-Padres-Seattle-Colorado-Arizona-Giants-Vegas Charlotte-Tampa-Atlanta-KC-Texas-Houston-Florida-Nashville NYY-NYM-Bos-Balt-Tor-Phi-Wash-Pitt All major rivalries would remain, games would be much closer to their usual time zones, regions would make much more sense. (Adding this line as fine print so I can sue MLB when they use my idea!!!)
  8. TheLeviathan
    Almost like dealing guys for prospects pays off sometimes rather than taking an L and getting nothing. Who'd have thunk it!
  9. TheLeviathan
    Yeah I can't disagree too much, obviously we're all guessing until we get info like Tolle/Arias down the line. Your stance is definitely plausible. And what I'm about to say for those reading is a fact: we lost that value and have absolutely nothing to show for it. Walker Jenkins and the rest of the new Twins will get zero of that lost value to help them rise up. This board should get used to hearing about opportunity cost. We've been swimming in it.
  10. TheLeviathan
    I look at it slightly different than you and @Mike Sixel. I think the value last deadline (2025) was peak. I'd probably quarter it in the offseason and half it since then. So for me the dip from offseason to deadline isn't nearly as steep. However....whenever we deal him from now on the values get steeply worse.
  11. TheLeviathan
    I thought we should have moved him last year, but I just want to be clear: You think from January 2026 to July 2026 his value halved?
  12. TheLeviathan
    I agree, the time to push chips in was the offseason. Doing nothing and then bypassing on continuing the rebuild at the deadline was the worst of all possible strategies. They made a mess out of what was actually looking to be in a good place.
  13. TheLeviathan
    Sure, we should always be mindful of making judgments based on small samples. I agree. That's precisely why there is reason to criticize the moves and judge ownership for pushing forward with contention. To put it succinctly: the framework of a "collapse" is the necessary rebuttal to the falsely premised "we're contenders!" argument that got us into this current dilemma. Both are driven by small sample thinking. Had ownership, sports media, TD article writers, and some diehard posters not fallen victim to the very problem you are suggesting, we wouldn't need to talk about a collapse. The larger sample made clear we were not contenders, that we should embrace the rebuild started last year. Had we done that, and not overemphasized the noise of June/July, we could be reveling in phase 2 of a rebuild (calling up the next wave of studs) and care less about wins and losses and more about develop. Complete with bonus assets that we have otherwise frittered away by the logic you rightly criticize above.
  14. TheLeviathan
    I admire your optimism.
  15. TheLeviathan
    It's also absolutely inevitable. Save your tears friend, you're going to need them.
  16. TheLeviathan
    Credit for @chpettit19for this. I blame regression for the failure of the team to meet the elevated expectations set forth by the owners and the diehards. Like many here I saw this team for what it's been all year. What I wanted to add to this was that everything the Pohlads are doing is about manipulating public sentiment enough to get their windfall in a sale. They don't care that they pulled the rug out of a rebuild right as a fresh, fun new wave of talent was coming. All they care about is that they wedge a few more easily fed fans into the stadium so they can sell their pricetag to the next buyer. Two relievers and 8 million was all it took for Skor North, Twins Daily, and a bunch of other media/internet spots to gush about a new kind of Pohlad. Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.
  17. TheLeviathan
    I, for one, can't wait to see the Twins Daily articles gushing about how aggressive the Pohlads are being when they sign a gaggle of players that are the 2026 versions of Bob Tewksbury, Rondell White, and Tony Bautista.
  18. TheLeviathan
    One thing is definitely true about Keaschall - he is a menace for pitchers. Now we just need to help him only menace the opposing pitchers, :) (I really like Luke, I think he's our 1B or LF of the future.)
  19. TheLeviathan
    Great post for context. They've been really bad for a month and they're still 3rd. I don't think enough fans here truly understood how ridiculous their run early in the season was on converting those situations.
  20. TheLeviathan
    The rather simple answer is regression. Their run differential has, from day 1 of this season essentially, told us exactly what they are: a sub .500 team. This team was the highest scoring team in the AL all the way into the trade deadline. However, that stat was driven by a ridiculously high BA with RISP. It was bound to have regression and that's exactly what we've seen. Couple that with regression from Clemens, Larnach, and Jeffers and you have the recipe to be as bad offensively as they were in August. Buxton's health regressed - we had an MVP level bat carrying the offense for 3 months but past history tells us we can't plan on that being sustainable. Several relievers who popped up and were having pretty good years: Morris was lights out May-July and has had a rough few months. Gomez has struggled. Adams had a great July..back to not great in August. Water found its level. Every single gauge you would normally use to measure a team was screaming that this team just wasn't very good and any improvement in the W/L column was being driven by unsustainable components.
  21. TheLeviathan
    Geez, hopefully the offense doesn't blow it all in two spots.
  22. TheLeviathan
    Thanks for posting this, that was one hell of a catch.
  23. TheLeviathan
    I think New York Times sports readers are both about as intelligent as you'll find and as likely to support labor over capital as you'll find in any cross-section of sports fans and they were still predominantly (overwhelmingly) on the side opposed to the union's arguments. If you have a better data set for determining the public's sentiments I would appreciate seeing it.
  24. TheLeviathan
    So....by tradition. I'm not sure how someone posts those two sentences back to back and thinks they've somehow avoided that fallacy. The MLBPA has no good reason to oppose it other than tradition and "nuh uh, I don't wanna". As you just demonstrated in 7 paragraphs. Just stick my shorter version, it'll save us all time. I will say this before I go back to just ignoring your posts: Most reasonable folks see plenty of reasons for change. That's not even an opinion, you can go check out the fan survey on The Athletic. The MLBPA lacks any good counter argument. They re;y entirely on fallacies and petulance....which is going to lose over time. Whether they lose the negotiations or lose the sport market share...the cost will be paid at some point. I'll keep rooting for them to get their bag, but if the sport isn't healthy it won't matter.
  25. TheLeviathan
    You started with the argument that the MLBPA won't listen because this has been their stance for "generations". I don't care. That's a dumb reason to reject anything. It's the fallacy of tradition. We also used outhouses for generations, I didn't reject indoor plumbing on that basis. Put simply: You claim, falsely, that a salary cap would reduce their earnings. I just proved that untrue. There are many, many iterations in which they make much, much more money AND have a cap. You, much like the MLBPA, is not holding a rational position with rational arguments. Stating that (your words) "all" salary cap benefits are easily dismissed is plainly wrong and stubbornly irrational. Denying a conversation about the framework when so much more money could be made based on the fallacy of tradition is stubbornly irrational. (By definition, since you are relying on a fallacy) The vast majority of MLB fans will not side with the group behaving that way. Not when they see it working well in the other three major sports.
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