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Jocko87

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Everything posted by Jocko87

  1. Jocko87
    I like this lineup. Interested to watch Twins Daily mythical regret darling Corbin Carroll this week. He looks healthy but not having a good season at all.
  2. Jocko87
    Isn't this the same thing Thielbar has?
  3. Jocko87
    Interesting they see Raya as a long reliever. Train might be leaving the station.
  4. Jocko87
    Did you notice who I didn't mention? Happy to discuss the actual arguments I made.
  5. Jocko87
    Not saying he's once in a lifetime, but he's what? A once a decade player for Twins fans? We have every reason to be as high on him as we ever were for Buxton, Mauer, Kubel, Hunter, Puckett or Todd (gulp) Walker. We are having this discussion less than two years after a guy was drafted in the first round. How many years do we get that? 1 in 10? Maybe. That we have two prospects of the decade at the moment doesn't affect my point. Things are just better now.
  6. Jocko87
    Would you like to talk linear, polynomial or multi-nominal logistic regression? It's actually a thing, a highly predictive thing. Does not mean it can't continue but most likely will not. If you think the Guardians are setting a new baseline, well crap for all of us. A far more likely outcome is that they won't put up a top 20 all time full season record. In baseball terms, quit talking crazy talk. You would take Tyler Freeman or Miles Brennan over Kepler and Buxton? Or Bo Naylor over Jeffers as a catcher? You would not. That's just a start, all the 28 year old journeyman playing out of their minds have names too long to type. They have some legit players, no doubt. The Twins 40 man is miles deeper in talent.
  7. Jocko87
    They next play in August. He should be in the mix by then.
  8. Jocko87
    Was just watching Guards/Orioles pondering this and whadayaknow? Here a perfect thread. The thing that prompted me to be curious was watching them against old friend™️ Cade Povich, noted left handed pitcher. First thought was, they let their lefties hit lefties. Second thought, wait-they don't have a choice. They are extremely left handed with their best hitters. Therefore, third thought is take all the time you can trying to get Theilbar right and maybe this is part of the reason they are keeping lefties around. They are all hitting lefties at well above career norms. We know Ramirez is good, but he's never been 41hr/145 rbi good. Naylor is big Papi remix? Maybe, the numbers he is putting up with a .229 BABIP is cause for concern for a Twins fan. David Fry a .955 OPS hitter? Kwan a 1.025 OPS hitter with his .401 BABIP? Regression is coming and it will hit in a big way. They are looking pretty good against the Orioles tonight but a tougher schedule, regression, scouting and understanding the lefties need managed are all going to work against them. This race is far from over. It would be nice to have a left handed starter to mix in somewhere though. A Brent Hendrick spot start wouldn't be crazy if he's doing well at AAA.
  9. Jocko87
    I should have put this disclaimer gif on my first post, lol. I'm well aware of the dynamic you've described. In fact, had Royce ate his cheerios this morning and hit that 3-run home run, Pablo's contributions would be all for naught. WPA speaking, of course. I've read the articles, I know how it works. There is a fantastic bit of statistical gymnastics involved in telling the "story of the game" without defense or any meaningful measurement of the starting pitcher (unless he really sucks, like Sears). These last two games are outliers in modern baseball so the modern analytical model struggles with them, one on the bottom side with Ober and one over the top with Pablo. Any statistical measurement attempting to tell us who was responsible for the winning of any specific game that gives a pitcher that throws a complete game allowing 4 (four!) baserunners a negative value is broken. Period. Back to the drawing board. The hypothesis is defeated. If I'm being honest, just don't rate pitching with WPA. It overvalues relievers, undervalues starters and doesn't attempt to factor defense. Just use it for offense and it won't be offensive. Also, really good clean game. I wish Buxton would hit that pitch on the outside edge to center or right center but I'll take left center when it works.
  10. Jocko87
    OK, WPA wizards. Ober -0.025 yesterday and Pablo 0.473 today? WTF. Nice game, watching the replay now.
  11. Jocko87
    I hope that activates some super secret provision of the CBS for a nice bonus. He's been fantastic. Great call out, I didn't even notice because I ignore WPA for these exact reasons. What's the WPA bump for the next two days for giving the bullpen the day off? It's gotta be huge. Speaking of that, very nice to have a day where the offense produces and the starting pitching is good. Even a seven inning start is great on a day like this. Too many close games lately is stressful for everybody.
  12. Jocko87
    How's Peter doing?
  13. Jocko87
    Any more lineup questions?
  14. Jocko87
    Just tuning in, any word on Kepler?
  15. Jocko87
    Buxton might be 4 OAM (outs above Martin) tonight. I think he catches the double. Martin isn't a centerfielder, he can play centerfield. It's a difference.
  16. Jocko87
    Wait til you see what happens...
  17. Jocko87
    Short bench with no Kepler. PR for Martin?
  18. Jocko87
    Same question? 🤣
  19. Jocko87
    You were waiting for some reason?
  20. Jocko87
    LOLZ
  21. Jocko87
    Maybe player. He's been fantastic.
  22. Jocko87
  23. Jocko87
    He was distracted by a Provus impression.
  24. Jocko87
    Piggyback for china doll Raya. It was planned. Wichita has pitching all of a sudden.
  25. Jocko87
    Damn near Atterberry though.
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