Karbo

The Twins' offense this spring has been frustrating and disappointing to this point in the season. Any team with the worst team batting average in MLB wouldn't be satisfied with their hitting, add in an inordinate number of strikeouts and puzzling underperformance from high-priced talent and it figures that players could be booed at home. As compared to when the 2022 season ended, this club is healthy, especially on the position player side. Max Kepler will be out for ten days, Royce Lewis will finish his rehab assignment at the end of May and everyone else that figured to contribute this year is available. 
The most recently available player is perhaps the most significant. Alex Kirilloff returned from the Injured List and rehab just over a week ago. The Twins and your's truly see a potential All-Star--someone who can both get on base and hit for power, who can lengthen the lineup and put runs on the board. Much of the reason for optimism is from his dominance in the minor leagues and brief flashes of a healthy AK mashing major league pitching. 
It's all dependent on a wrist. Kirilloff has had his last two seasons ended early because of wrist pain and subsequent surgery. The second surgery was major, some  have called it experimental, The Twins have brought AK on slowly, with no real setbacks. So far, so good. The results on the field have been excellent (only 22 plate appearances), Seven hits in sixteen at-bats, with six walks and three strikeouts. Two homers and a double. When the wrist began to impact Kirilloff in the last two years, he quit driving the ball and hit lots of weak grounders. So far, he's hit a high percentage of balls on the ground, but he's hitting the ball hard and the two homers yesterday show that he can drive the ball. 
What's reasonable for this year? AK should get something north of 400 plate appearances and if he can become a full-time fixture, he could get to 500. In 500 plate appearances, perhaps he could hit as many as 20 homers and I think the batting average could be above .300, which would make him a unicorn. I think if he walks at a 2:3 ratio to strike outs, it would show newfound selectivity. He has not chased out of the zone and has taken his walks so far. A .300 BA combined with a > 10% walk rate would be outstanding for a player in his first full year. 
I'm pulling the projected numbers out of the air. I am also showing my optimism for Kirilloff's ability. I think he can be an elite offensive player and a fine defender. Someone who can really get the offense rolling. I hope in a few months, that people will say this blog has aged well. 

As a kid, I remember looking at batting average as the key to the value of a player. OK, not every player, as I was a Harmon Killebrew fan, and he never really hit for average. That should have alerted me to the fact that not all base hits are created equal - and those that sail over the fences are far more valuable than a single to center field.
There are a lot of people who complain about trading away last year's AL batting champion, Louis Arreaz. That said, while he hits for a very high average, just how impactful is he? I would argue not that impactful.
Let's compare two players so far this year - and they are night and day difference makers. Introducing Joey Gallo. 
Gallo is an all or nothing player offensively. He strikes out a lot, but when he gets hit, he hits the ball hard. Many of those get out of the ballpark or at least produce extra base hits.
Arraez is the oppposite - he doesn't really hit the ball hard, but he gets a lot of base hits. Through tonight, his batting average is a gaudy .379. By contrast, Gallo is at .209.
So who is more effective? I would argue it is about a wash, and, given the many more at bats for Arraez, Gallo is more impactful
In 132 at bats, Arraez has scored just 14 runs. That is largely because it takes a lot to score a run when you just hit a single or walk, and that is what Arraez mostly does. With 132 at bats, Arraez' 50 hits are mostly singles (7 doubles, 1 triple, 1 home run), so his OPS is.905. That's pretty good, but remember the runs scored thing.
In just 86 at bats, Gallo has scored 16 runs, and has a similar .903 OPS. The difference is he drives the ball - he has 18 hits, and nearly all are extra base hits (5 doubles, 1 triple, and 8 home runs). So Gallo is hitting .209, and Arraez is hitting .379 - but the impact factors in baseball suggest Gallo has been more valuable offensively.

21.5 hours. That's how long it takes to drive straight from Mitchell, SD to The Bronx, NY. 21.5 hours.
Four games against the Bronx Bombers, the Twins' playoff kryptonite, the &#@%! Yankees.
The first road trip through Kansas City and Miami involved a decent 6 hour drive, and a flight to the SE corner of America. Seven nights away from home. 
In Kansas City I found the traditional opening day experience. Overpriced tickets, a giant flag, recognizing the whole roster on the field for pre-game ceremony, some old-time heros, some kids skipping school, and a bit of anticipation about how the previous year translates into this year.
The Twins fans at Kauffman Stadium arrived early and cheered loudly, for the most part drowned out by an over-sized crowd of Royal blue.  The next five games on the road trip were the exact opposite. Twins fans held their own, and probably equalled or surpassed the home team at both stadiums. I walked around and had at least a hundred conversations (I know because I handed out over a hundred business cards!), and the Twins faithful couldn't have been nicer. They all had stories to share...how many stadiums they had been to, where they were going next, why did we trade Arraez?
I asked fans to send me their photos from the stadium, or any stories or interactions with the team that they wanted to share. I wasn't prepared for the amount of response that I received!
After I wrap up these four games in New York, a trip over to Cooperstown, and three more games at Fenway Park, I plan to release a front-page summary of the first two road trips.  Sort of a "what you notice on the road that the cameras and announcers don't pick up" type of vibe. Player interactions before and during the game, new rules in different stadiums and how they are impacting the experience of the team and also the staff at the ballparks (Did you think about how staff working an MLB game now make an hour less of pay per game thanks to the pitch clock?), and how the experience of getting to and from the ballpark varies from place to place.
My week at home between these two lengthy (distance and time) series didn't allow for much reflection. Kansas city sweep, quality time with old friends and mentors, meeting Twins employees and players for the first time, the Negro League Hall of Fame, the Miami empty stadium and sunburn, culture shock, jet lag, school kid excitement, and, of course, the moments that you wouldn't believe unless they happened to you.
I think my biggest takeaway so far is that these moments didn't just happen to me...they were shared by my fellow fans at the stadium, they got echoed through our time together, and amplified when shared with others. I learned that these stories that I'll be sharing over the next two years aren't just my stories, they are our stories.
I'm only a few hours from the Big Apple now, time to get back into the "where in the world are we?" navigational seat with my trusty co-pilot Eric Van Meter. Let's take 5 of 7 at these shrines of baseball and meet you back at Target Field :)
Steve
@TwinsTrefz
Going to the games in NYC or Boston?  Send me a note at TwinsTrefz@gmail.com
Thanks to fellow Twins fan Harrison Smith who captured the opening day national anthem photo shown at the top!  Bullpen view!

https://www.mlb.com/twins/video/lopez-on-starting-opening-day?partnerId=web_video-playback-page_video-share
The new rules regarding larger bases, pitch clocks, and banned shifts didn't seem to bother the Twins on Opening Day. Baldelli's bunch pieced together a sparkling 2-0 win behind 5.1 very solid innings by off-season trade acquisition Pablo Lopez. (Although he wasn't the only Lopez who pitched well).

The Twins didn't hit any home runs, they didn't resemble the 2019 Bomba Squad. But they did resemble a team built with depth and bench players who can give you quality, MLB level at bats, and not give them away.

I will be highlighting my 6-4-3 below, what is it? 6 things or players who stuck out to me during today's game, 4 things I really liked seeing, and updates on 3 former Twins, who have had a pretty good Opening Day!

So sit back, read your 2023 Media Guide (or Twins handbooks from previous years), pour yourself a drink in your Twins Winter Meltdown glass, and enjoy:
6 Things or Players who really stood out to me:
Pablo Lopez-- It always starts with your starter. When you get a good strong quality start (or better!), you keep your team in the game, and especially on Opening Day, you give your team a chance to get you runs and win, and that's what he did. His line was pretty stellar: 5.1 IP, 2H, 3BB, 8Ks. In a sentence: Pablo shoved. He was in control all day, and when he did get into a jam I'm the 5th, he managed to stay calm and induce your standard 3-2-4 double play. Byron Buxton-- What can I say about this guy that hasn't been said? He is the engine that makes this team go. You saw it when they needed a spark and he hit an oppo triple to RCF that the KC CF missed and Buxton made third (He later scored on the very next AB on a single up the middle by Larnach, but more on that later). He really makes this lineup longer and better, even as the DH. He was 2-4 today with a single in the 1st and a triple and run scored in the 6th. His run scored put the Twins ahead 1-0, and was the first run scored of the season. More of this all year please! Trevor Larnach-- Larnach had maybe the best day of any Twins hitter, as an oft injured player with a very high ceiling, 2023 was seen as a crucial season for him, some even saying a make or break. He drove in Buxton with a single (up the middle, which is great to see him taking the ball back up the middle) giving the Twins a 1-0 lead. After a Buck Farmer walk gave the Twins runners on 1st and 2nd with 1 out, newly acquired Donovan Solano came up a single to RF to score Larnach and give the Twins, and Lopez all the insurance and runs they'd need. 2-0. Very encouraging start for Larnach as 2023 is an important season for him and he remains a HUGE bat for the Twins if he stays healthy. Twins infield defense. They got two HUGE Double Plays, both off the bat of MJ Melendez, at important times. None more so than the beautiful Gallo to Vasquez to Gordon, 3-2-4 Double Play to get the Twins and Pablo off the field, and out of trouble, after the Royals had mounted their only threat of the day. If the Twins infield defense, led by Correa, can continue to be solid, reducing errors, mental mistakes and taking advantage of ground balls hit at them(and producing 2 puts from them), that is a HUGE benefit for Twins pitchers this season. It will be something to monitor as the season progresses. Twins Bench-- After Farmer and Solano (combined 2-3 with a walk and RBI) replaced Nick Gordon and Joey Gallo (combined 0-4 with a K) at the plate, the Twins scored their two runs, one coming off the previously mentioned single from Solano. This is the kind of bench depth the Twins have lacked in past years, real, quality depth. Guys who give you good, smart, MLB ABs and don't get overwhelmed by the moment. (See not Jake Cave, Gilberto Celestino, etc, the last few years). If the Twins bench can continue to produce like they did, next man up, so to speak, that will be a big advantage for the Twins, and for Rocco, especially in late inning games when he's going based on match ups. Twins Bullpen-- Just because they're last on the list doesn't mean they're last in my heart. The Twins bullpen was one word today: outstanding! After Thielbar replaced Pablo Lopez in the 6th inning with 1 out, the bullpen went 3.2 hitless innings. That's right, no hits allowed by the pen. They struck out 2. It seemed like whoever Rocco brought in was always in control, and the Twins minimized any damage. This was, to me, the best part of the game today, especially given the issues the bullpen faced last year. The 3.2 innings were thrown between Thielbar, Lopez Jax, and Duran. All of them, except Duran, getting a Hold, while Duran recorded his first save of the 2023 season. 4 things I really liked seeing:
Offense never gave up. They were mostly shut out for the first five innings by Grienke, but the bats came alive in the 6th and produced 2 runs without a home run. One of them by a non starter (Solano). Good to see. Quality start by Lopez in his Twins debut, 5.1 IP 2 H, 3 BB, 8 Ks. Not much to say that I didn't say earlier. Today was his day. Buxton kickstarting the offensive scoring with an opposite field triple. He's such a difference maker for this team. Let's hope he stays healthy. Rocco's decisions, I liked his call to pull Lopez at 81 pitches and turn the game over to the bullpen, especially given how good they were (and can be) against a lowly KC team. He also made the right call to pull Gordon and Gallo for Farmer and Solano, which ended up securing the Twins an insurance run! 3 former Twins who had a good day on Opening Day:
Robbie Grossman (the human OBP machine) hit a big 3R HR in the Rangers game to tie it at 5, and help them later to secure the win after a very shaky start by DeGrom. Spencer Steer-- Former Twins prospect Spencer Steer hit a HR on Opening Day for the Reds, it was his 3rd career big league Home Run. Congratulations, Spencer. Luis Arraez, in his first AB as a Marlin, he roped a single down the LF line in typical Arreaz form. He later had a run producing 2B and finished 2-4 as the Marlins fell to the Mets 5-3. This was a great win for the Twins, a team win. One of the few wins in the last 3 years where I never really felt the Royals were going to make a run or tie the game, or where the Twins would give up the lead. They were in cruise control from start to finish. If the Twins continue this style and level of crisp, solid play, throughout the summer, it will be a VERY fun summer at Target Field.
 

Rocco Baldelli has been a polarizing figure in Twins Territory since his 2019 managerial debut. His new-school, analytics-forward approach led the Twins to back-to-back AL Central crowns in Baldelli’s first two seasons at the helm. Since then, the Twins have disappointed with consecutive sub-.500 seasons, including a last place finish in the 2021 AL Central.
Entering his fifth season as manager, Baldelli needs to demonstrate that he is a source of success, not an obstacle that Twins players need to overcome.
Why is the jury still out on Rocco? Let’s argue both sides of his case.
 
(Rah-Rah Rocco) Supporters might say…
Baldelli debuted in 2019 by taking over a team that went 78-84 a year earlier and immediately winning 101 games, overseeing the franchise’s first 100-win season since 1965. This feat won him AL Manager of the Year. For his second act, Rocco skillfully handled the extreme roster flux of the Covid-shortened 2020 season to repeat as AL Central champs.
Modern baseball favors data-savvy franchises, and Baldelli is the quintessential modern manager. He began his coaching career with the Tampa Bay Rays, getting an inside look at the small-market franchise best at using analytics to squeeze extra wins out of every dollar they spend. The Twins’ payroll will always be middling; they need a manager who knows how to leverage the troves of data at their disposal. Baldelli embraces data and uses analytics to optimize his players’ probabilities of success, even if that sometimes means pulling his starting pitcher after four or five effective innings.
Next point: Twins players like playing for Rocco. He’s a relatable 41-year-old former player who keeps things light in the clubhouse. Manager-player chemistry isn’t insignificant. Last year’s White Sox showed how a rift between manager and players can create an on-field disaster. Byron Buxton has blossomed under Rocco, who lets Buck swing freely and tap into his extraordinary athleticism. Meanwhile, after one year under Baldelli, Carlos Correa re-signed with the club knowing Baldelli would be leading the team going forward.
During his two losing seasons, Baldelli was tormented by injuries. In 2021, Twins players missed more games due to injury than any other team in the AL Central (see the data here). And last season, the Twins were the most injury-plagued team in MLB, missing out on 10.06 wins due to injury, according to this analysis. Rocco was forced to regularly trot out lineups featuring the likes of Rob Refsnyder, Jake Cave, Gilberto Celestino, and other backups while his team sputtered. It’s not the manager’s fault when they don’t have any good buttons to press.
 

Rocco Baldelli ranks 10th in managerial wins in Twins/Senators franchise history. If he wins 91 games this season, Baldelli would vault himself up to 6th place all time.
(Boo Baldelli) Haters might say…
Ah yes, 2019, the glorious year of the hyperbouncy baseball and the Bomba Squad. If you hired a squirrel to be an MLB manager and its team set an MLB record by hitting 307 homeruns in 162 games, the squirrel would probably have a division championship on its managerial resume. Baldelli deserves little credit for the Twins’ 2019 AL Central crown. Sure, Rocco followed up 2019 with another division title in 2020, but are we certain that a 60-game MLB season packed with Covid-list absences means anything in the big picture? And Baldelli is 0-5 in the playoffs, after all!
In the post-2020 world, Baldelli’s teams have consistently underperformed. Twins ownership is spending more money than ever before, only to be rewarded with two losing seasons.
Baldelli’s offenses never bunt or steal to stimulate run-scoring, despite mediocre offensive numbers. The Twins ranked 14th and 17th in runs scored in 2021 and 2022, respectively. And Baldelli’s knack for prematurely pulling starting pitchers hasn’t paid off either, with his pitching staffs finishing 26th and 19th in ERA during those two seasons. His overreliance on underperforming veteran relievers has cost the team wins. It’s impossible to forget Alex Colomé blowing save after save to start the 2021 season. More recently, Emilio Pagán has filled the role of overused bullpen punching bag.
Baldelli’s in-game pitching management clearly rubs some players the wrong way. Earlier this week Sonny Gray effectively called out Baldelli, saying this year’s starting staff won’t take kindly to being yanked early.
An MLB manager should subtly complement their roster like a fine wine accents a good meal. Instead, Baldelli is a pungent sauce that smothers everything on its plate.
 
It’s time for a verdict.
Personally, I’m conflicted about Baldelli. I support using analytics to supplement decision making and I value his management style. He’s data-savvy with good vibes, but his in-game tactics seem to consistently backfire.
Barring a World Series title, Baldelli will continue to have his detractors; however, a successful 2023 season would do a lot to lend him legitimacy as Twins manager. If the Twins instead miss the playoffs for a third straight season, Baldelli’s tenure in Minnesota will probably come to an end.
Bottom line, Baldelli is out of excuses. The Twins have two bona fide stars in Buxton and Correa. The front office built a pitching rotation that is at least six deep, and the Twins’ bench is full of starting-caliber position players. Heading into the 2023 season, Baldelli’s control panel has more buttons, levers, and switches than ever before. If he is indeed the man for the job, Baldelli needs to prove that he can press the buttons, pull the levers, and flip the switches that spur his team to a postseason berth (and a freaking playoff win!!).
It’s go time, Rocco.

Meet "Stevie" the elf. Think of him as a cross between Where's Waldo, Flat Stanley, & Circle-me-Bert. He's going to be joining me on the road this summer for some Twins away game excitement, and believe it or not summer starts tomorrow!
Kansas City here we come! 70 degrees, a pleasant breeze, and hopefully a few bombas from our favorite nine. Pablo wheels and deals, Duran closes the door, and 2023's version of "Hope Springs Eternal" can finally turn the page to "Summer of Victory."
I have a lot of excitement as I head into the first road series. My friend Jeff and I have plans to see the Negro League Hall of Fame on Friday during the off-day (luckily avoiding the first rain-out of the season). We seem to have great weather for baseball, and the stadium was built for day games. 
I've been asked quite a few times in the past week or so, "Why are you doing this?" Or, "What's your goal for these trips?"
I really don't know any more...
At first, it was mostly about the exhilirating thought exercise of planning the trips out, and seeing if it was even humanly possible (without a Billion-dollar organization backing me!). Then the trips became a way to recover relationships with friends and family that COVID and adulthood had pushed into the background. Then it became the stubborn cultural genetics within me that screamed "You can't quit now!" And now? 
Now, I answer those questions like this: "I'm going on these trips because somehow, some way, I believe that good and beauty and joy are going to find me on the road between here and there."
At my local church, Fusion Church in Mitchell, SD, I just got done working on a sermon series entitled "On the Way." The theme addresses how most of the amazing and powerful Bible stories that we remember actually happened when Jesus and his friends were "on the way" to somewhere else. Someone stops him and asks for healing, someone walks with them for a while and asks key life questions. The group is headed somewhere, and notice someone or something that makes them stop and be present there for a while.
Over the past three years, I've missed being "on the way" to other places. I need to be surprised by some new questions. I need to be struck by something I've never seen or experienced before. I need to be inconvenienced by a challenge or opportunity that crosses my path.
Do I hope the Twins win every game this year? Of course. I'm the only human who has ever predicted them to go 162-0 and actually believed it could happen. But I know, win or lose, life is going to happen "on the way" to the games. 
I've updated my twitter handle if you want real-time in game updates from the stadium: @TwinsTrefz 
and my email: TwinsTrefz@gmail.com
If you are headed to Kansas City this weekend, or any future road series, shoot me an email and let me know! I would love to celebrate a Twins win (or loss) with you "on the way."
Grace and peace,
Steve

For some time now I've advocated to trade for a very good catching prospect because our cupboards are bare and I don't see Jeffers as very good catcher who I want to start on any frequency. Last year I advocated for Endy Rodriguez (PIT) who will debut this season, who we could have picked up cheap because they had the '21 #1 draft pick, catcher Henry Davis and he was behind him. Now Endy's talent is very well known and has become very expensive and has leaped frog over Davis. 
I have a new target, Edgar Quero, 19 yrs. (LAA) catcher, who was in A ball. Here are a couple sites that evaluated Quero. 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tbq99OPGLE8&t=14s
"Scout to Statline" is very high on Quero, They rated him #2 behind Alvarez.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c_70-LN4HwY&t=389s
"Locked ON MLB Prospects" gives us some insights on his defense. Which were impressed with how he works with pitchers & how to call a game. He had a good CS ratio although he has  slightly above average arm. Being only 19 his physical development is still going on where he can develop more arm strength & more power. Quero should start in High A ball this season and IMO could reach AAA by the end. In '24 I believe he could debut.
Quero is just starting to be recognized. If we respond soon, we can still get him pretty reasonable. LAA has O'Hoppe who'll debut this year and is ranked very high as a catcher by all. We should come up with a trade that interests LAA to make this happen. What do you think?

I’ve decided to write a series of posts regarding the depth in the Twins system, or possibly lack thereof depending on how you feel about a particular position. I plan to go position by position in hopes to shed some light on who could make an impact as early as 2023, or who may make an impact within a few years. I was inspired by Nick Nelson’s posts regarding the major league team, but didn’t want to duplicate what he did, so I will only be writing about the guys not on the 40-man roster, because Nick has done a great job analyzing the position at the major league level.
I will start with catchers, where there are more in the system than one probably thinks at the start. I used Roster Resource’s depth chart, which can be found on FanGraphs. Here is a note on each catcher in the Twins system not on the 40 man roster. I’ll list how they were acquired and what level I expect them to play at most this coming season.
Tony Wolters Acquired: Free Agency, 2023
Level: AAA
 
The Twins signed Wolters in January to have some depth within the minors if Christian Vazquez or Ryan Jeffers were to get injured. Wolters has bounced around to a few different teams in the past few years, but you likely remember him most as a member of the Colorado Rockies. He is a light hitting, backup, catcher at this point in his career, with a career .235/.321/.314 line in his time in the majors. He’s not a bad depth option because he has some major league experience, but the hope is he doesn’t have to get into too many games this season.
Chance Sisco Acquired: Free Agency, 2022
Level: AAA
 
Sisco was in the Twins system this past year as a well as a depth option and even with Ryan Jeffers injury, he was not called up to the ML squad. Once a highly regard prospect after being drafted in the 2nd round of the 2013 draft, Sisco never hit much in the majors, which leads to a noticeably clear ceiling. At this point, similar to Wolters, he is a depth option with some major league experience. His career line of .197/.317/337 is not fantastic, but it is nice to have a guy who can fill in a backup roll if needed. I’m not sure on where he compares to some of the other AAA catchers, but it’s never a bad thing to have multiple guys who have some major league experience if an injury does occur.
Grayson Greiner Acquired: Free Agency, 2023
Level: AAA
 
You may know Greiner most from his time with the Detroit Tigers, where he played from 2018-2021. He spent the 2022 season with Arizona, where he spent most of his time at AAA but made it into two major league games. Greiner, like Sisco and Wolters, is a depth option at the catcher position. He will likely play most, if not all, of the year at AAA where he will serve as a depth option in case of injury. His ML career slash of .201/.275/.307 is not far off from Wolters or Sisco and profiles as a depth piece where if you see him in the majors for too long, something went very wrong with injuries most likely.
David Bañuelos Acquired: Trade, 2017
Level: AAA
 
You may or may not remember, Bañuelos was acquired in December 2017 in a trade with the Seattle Mariners where the Twins sent international bonus pool money to Seattle in exchange for Bañuelos. Bañuelos has slowly climbed the minor league ranks since, finishing at AAA over the last two years. This may sound familiar, but he is a light hitting catcher who is a pretty solid depth piece this year. A career .207/.261/.325 hitter in 5 minor league seasons, Bañuelos has been tried at other positions, but not often, which says to me he is a catcher who can maybe play elsewhere in an emergency. Listed as the 4th possible catcher, at AAA, I would assume one of these guys may get a handful of at bats at 1B as well, but it may not be Bañuelos, since he hasn’t played there since 2017. At this point, he is a depth piece who will likely not see the majors unless something goes horribly wrong with the guys ahead of him on the depth chart.
 
Alex Isola Acquire: Draft – 29th Round, 2019
Level: AA
 
You may be thinking, finally, someone the Twins drafted. Don’t worry, there are a handful of others on this list as well. Isola was a late round pick, who has steadily climbed the minors ladder since being drafted in 2019. He made it up to Wichita, the Twins AA affiliate, this past season, where I would expect him to spend a chunk of the time this coming season as well. Isola is a career .264/.356/449 hitter in the minor leagues, which means his bat is a bit more of a weapon compared to others we have looked at to this point. Isola is relatively versatile as well, having played some 1B over the past two seasons as well. He also represented the Twins in the Arizona Fall League in 2022, where he mostly played 1B and he hit .228/.343/.316 in 16 games. Isola is 24 years old, so he likely projects as a career backup who can provide a little offense as well. I’m interested to see if he can carve a role in future years, but I don’t see 2023 being a year where that occurs, unless he takes a huge step forward combined with injuries occurring at the same time.
Kyle Schmidt Acquired: Draft – 33rd Round, 2019
Level: AA
 
Drafted out of the University of Richmond in 2019, where Schmidt tore the cover off the ball in his final season, he has slowly climbed the ranks, at an oddly similar pace to Isola. Schmidt’s minors career slash of .211/.296/.290 isn’t quite as potent, but he seems to still be developing potentially at the dish. Schmidt played at Fort Myers, Cedar Rapids, and also at Wichita, where he mostly played catcher, but also got into some games at 1B as well. If Schmidt can hit for more power, even becoming a guy who gets more extra base hits, he could potentially carve out a role as a backup catcher in the future.
Pat Winkel Acquired: Draft – 9th round, 2021
Level: A+/AA
 
Winkel has about a year and a half of minors games under his belt, so he still has a ways to go to get to the majors. He played at high-A Cedar Rapids this past year, where he hit decently well, and showed a little bit of power, hitting 6 HRs in 54 games played. As I mentioned, Winkel has a limited amount of minors experience, so plenty of time to still grow going forward, as he is only 23 years old. His career slash of .251/.341/.382 is something to build off, especially at the catcher position.
Noah Cardenas Acquired: Draft – 8th round, 2021
Level: A+
 
In the past two season, in just over 100 games, Cardenas has hit .264/.420/.418, which is really fun because that shows he’s hit for a little bit of power, while also hitting for a decent average as well. I know, it’s the low minors, so you can take it with a grain of salt. Cardenas might be a potential piece long term, but will have to continue to perform if he wants to make an impact at the major league level going forward. He’s known for his glove first, and that’s an okay place to be as a catcher, but if he can tap into a little more offensive firepower, he could be a fun piece to watch climb his way into the picture in the next handful of years.
Charles Mack Acquired: Draft – 6th round, 2018
Level: A+
 
Mack will be playing his age 23 season this coming year, but it will be his 5th year in the Twins system. Drafted in 2018, Mack has a career slash of .212/.315/346 in the minors. He played a little 1B this past season, so some versatility is always promising. He threw out 20% of potential base stealers, so he will need to improve in that area if wanting to be a long term option at catcher.
Dillon Tatum Acquired: Draft – 20th Round, 2021
Level: A+
 
Tatum was drafted in the 20th round out of UC Irvine after hitting .278 with 15 HR in his final year there. In two minor league seasons, he has hit .172/.320/.291, so the bat has not translated as some may have hoped, but it still has time to develop as he is 22 years old. Tatum also played a handful of games at 1B this past year, but his bat will have to improve to truly be a viable option at 1B. He had a 25% caught stealing rate, so not great, but he did only commit 2 errors in 437 chances at Fort Myers as well. He’s a glove first catcher, with some upside with the bat. Keep your eye on how his bat develops this year.
Nate Baez Acquired: Draft – 12th round, 2022
Level: A
 
Baez is the one of the newer members of this list to the organization. He has played in a total of 19 minor league games but hit decently well at Fort Myers when called up. He hit 3 HR in 58 PA, so hopefully the power can still continue to develop. In his last season at Arizona State, he hit .319/.403/.562 with 10 HR and 48 RBI. If the bat can continue to develop, he could be a very interesting piece. Baez also played 1B, 2B, 3B and even a handful of games in LF as well in college, so there could be some versatility. I would say the versatility is something to keep an eye on, ad he is someone who could end up at 1B if catching doesn’t work out.
Ricardo Olivar Acquired: Amateur FA – 2019
Level: A
 
Olivar was signed as an amateur free agent in July 2019 for $20,000. He struggled in 2021, but figured something out in 2022 as he led the Florida Complex League with a 1.047 OPS over 40 games. Olivar has also played all 3 OF positions and 2B, which makes him a very intriguing prospect. Does he stick at catcher, or does he transition to another position that gets his bat into the lineup a bit more? Time will tell, but as a catcher, he has a decent fielding percentage, but has not thrown out would be base stealers very well at all. He finished the year at Fort Myers in 2022 so I would suspect he spends the entire 2023 season there as well. He is only 21 years old as well, so he could be a sneaky break-out candidate as someone not many people are talking about right now.
Wilfri Castro Acquired: Amateur FA – 2017
Level: Rookie
 
Castro was signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2017 and has been in rookie ball since 2018. His minors career line of .204/.338/.305 doesn’t scream a bright future, but sometimes you don’t know with low-level prospects. With having been in the system for a few years, this may be the year that he finally puts something together, as he has only 86 professional games under his belt at this point. For his sake, the hope would be he can at least finish the year in Fort Myers after hitting some at rookie ball.
Ricardo Pena Acquired: Amateur FA – 2022
Level: Dominican Summer League
 
Pena got into 29 games after being signed in April of last year. He hit a little bit, but 29 games is a small sample size to judge a 17, soon to be 18, year old. Lots of time for development for a young prospect, and one I will keep an eye on to see how he is doing over the next few years to see if he is able to develop into a possible top-30 prospect for the Twins.  He will likely spend his time in the Dominican Summer League this coming year and hopefully build off of the development he had this past season.  
Carlos Silva Acquired: Amateur FA – 2023
Level: Dominican Summer League
 
The Twins signed Silva, the number 31 ranked international prospect for $1.1 million in January of this year. Jesse Sanchez, of MLB.com stated about Silva: “As for Silva, the right-handed hitter from Venezuela has a compact frame that suits him well behind the plate. He also has the skills to keep him there as he advances through the Minor Leagues. Silva impressed scouts with his pop times and arm strength, which has a chance to be an above-average tool in the future. He shows good footwork along with solid receiving and blocking skills. At the plate, Silva shows plus bat speed and the ability to drive the ball to all fields, especially his pull side. He trains out of the NBS Academy in Venezuela.”
This tells me that Silva is a guy to keep your eye on, but he likely won’t be major league ready for quite some time, as he is only 17 years old and will take quite some time to develop. He’s a prospect to be excited about, but not for probably 5-6 years realistically.
 
Let me know which catchers not on the 40-man roster you are most excited for, or maybe which you aren’t as excited about. I plan on releasing one of these for each position over the next handful of weeks. Let me know your thoughts!
 
 
 

I’ve been watching Tyler White and the way he has been used, such that he has the second most AB of any Twin. His average is rising and he hit a recent home run. He has 26  HR in 760 MLB appearances (a Willie Wilson season, almost!) to go along with 103 RBIs.
The Twins need a first baseman, Kirilloff seems quite iffy now and White could slide right in and just in 550 AB, he would be expected to hit 19 HR with 75 RBIs.
It might take an unlikely chain of events for White to be the first baseman but I have to think they’re giving him the 2nd most AB on the whole roster for a reason.
 

In looking at the 2023 schedule a bit closer, the Twins schedule in April may be the most important month of the year. Not only, as it is every year, will it be important to get off to a good start, the schedule has some tough matchups, and, what should be, very winnable series as well. 
Here is a breakdown of the first month of the season: 
3 @ Kansas City Royals
3 @ Miami Marlins
3 vs Houston Astros
3 vs Chicago White Sox
4 @ New York Yankees
3 @ Boston Red Sox 
3 vs Washington Nationals 
3 vs New York Yankees 
4 vs Kansas City Royals 
 
I first wanted to look at the head to head record against these teams this past year. The Twins had a combined record of 28-30 against these opponents. They did not play against either Miami or Washington in the 2022 season. So against the other 6 teams, they had a losing record. While this might not be a great sign, if you take the Astros and Yankees out as well, the combined record is 26-19. 
So, as I mentioned, getting off to a strong start is important in wanting to win the division and make the playoffs. It appears the Twins are capable of finishing April above .500, but they will need to play well to do so. If they play as poorly against the Yankees and Astros as they did in 2022, they will have to be almost flawless against the other teams during the month, which is not a great recipe for success. 
Now let's break down what the Twins need to do to have a successful first month of the season this coming year: 
3 @ Kansas City: The Twins record against the Royals in 2022 was 12-7. This is the type of record they will need to have this coming year if they want to win the division again. It's hard to sweep a 3 game series, so a good start to the season would be winning 2 out of 3 in Kansas City. 
Record: 2-1 
3 @ Miami: The Miami Marlins went 69-93 this past season, but have improved in some areas as well (see Arraez, Luis). While the Marlins are an interesting team and have a pretty solid rotation going forward, they will likely be having their 4/5/1 starters going in this series. A 2-1 record feels realistic in this scenario. 
Record: 4-2 
3 vs Houston: Man, did the Twins play horrible against the Astros in 2022. In the 6 matchups, the Twins were outscored 11-36. The later matchups were closer, but they still lost all of them. The Astros are one of the favorites to represent the American League in the World Series in 2023. I would like to believe the Twins will play better against the Astros this year, especially in their first series at home, but it's not a given. I will say it would be great if they went 2-1, but would expect a 1-2 record instead. 
Record: 5-4
3 vs Chicago: The Twins and White Sox were pretty evenly matched throughout the year, with the Twins winning the season series 10-9. Both teams are hoping (and probably expecting) improvement from last year, but if the Twins can continue to have success versus Chicago and win 2 out of 3 in this series, they will finish the first homestand 3-3. This isn't ideal, but not bad given the matchups of Houston and Chicago to start it. 
Record: 7-5
4 @ New York: If you have been mildly paying attention to baseball for the past 20 years or so, you have probably noticed the Twins record is abysmal when playing in New York, or heck, playing against the Yankees anywhere. Maybe they should try playing on the moon or something? Anyways, the Twins have had very little success in New York since I can even remember, but going 2-2 on the road in New York would be a pretty solid matchup. Because it appears the Twins may be cursed when it comes to the Yankees, I am tempering my expectations and say they can go 1-3 in New York and still have a successful first month. 
Record: 8-7
3 @ Boston: The Red Sox are an interesting team in the sense that they have let moved on from stars, such as Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts, but have retained Rafael Devers going forward. They also signed Mastaka Yoshida, who I am excited to see transition to MLB and I think could be a pretty solid addition going forward. While I don't think they should have traded a generational talent in Betts, they deemed it the right move. Because the Red Sox are in a weird flux position and I'm not convinced they have improved enough to stay competitive, I will say the Twins are capable and need to win 2 out of 3 games in Boston to start off successfully in 2023. 
Record: 10-8
3 vs Washington: While the Red Sox moved on from Betts, the Nationals moved on from Juan Soto, who has received comparisons to Ted Williams. Soto is now in San Diego, and the Nationals are in a free fall from their championship in 2019. The Nationals went 55-107 last year and while their young guys are improving, it's not clear they will be a competitive team this coming season. Winning 2 out of 3 versus Washington will be key to the first month of the year. 
Record: 12-9
3 vs New York: It feels realistic to think the Twins could be 12-9 at this point, and facing New York will be another tough test, about 10 days after they played them first. After winning 2 out of 3 against both Boston and Washington, I would hope the Twins come in with some confidence and play well. To have a successful first month, the Twins will need to either split the 4 games in New York and/or win 2 out of 3 in this series a week and a half later. I will say they have to win 2 out of 3 to not have people wondering too much if they are for real or not. 
Record: 14-10
4 vs Kansas City: The Twins finish the month off versus the lowly Royals, who happen to always give the Twins a tough matchup it seems. 4 games series are always a little weird and it seems like the Twins always go 2-2 in those matchups, I think the Twins are capable of winning 3 out of 4 against the Royals, but I will say they only need to win 2 out of 4 with where they are at to have the first month be deemed a success. 
Record: 16-12
 
While a 16-12 record doesn't mean it would be a resounding success, with a total of 10 of those games being against the Yankees and Astros, this record would not be the worst possible outcome. While I think they could win 2 out of 4 in New York, or even win the Astros series, I think it's hard to say they will definitively do either of those things. While it's possible to not play well against the Yankees and Astros and still finish the month off with a winning record, it's not something Twins fans would feel great about if they get dominated by those teams that are considered favorites in the American League. (Note: This has the Twins going 4-6 against these two teams). Now that I see that, going 5-5 in those matchups could be a decent outcome. 
 
I am pretty confident that if the Twins finish the first month 16-12, or even 15-13, or better, they will be set up to succeed going into the dog days of summer. One thing I think that will be interesting is that they will play every team in the league this year, which means less games against their AL Central foes. The Twins went 39-37 versus the division last year, which they will need to be better than that to win the division, without a doubt. I would like to believe they will be better against Cleveland than they were in 2022 (6-13). 
 
Let me know in the comments if you think this is realistic in your eyes, or if you think I am too high or too low on the level of success the Twins need to have in the first month of the season. 

Kyle Farmer is a starting quality MLB SS will fill a bench role for the Twins this year. While he is valuable in that role, his biggest value might have just come in - as a trade chip to the Dodgers to replace Gavin Lux at SS after Lux tore his ACL yesterday.  The Dodgers other option is 34-year-old Miguel Rojas who they acquired from the Marlins before spring training. You have to think the Dodgers are looking for a starting caliber SS that's locked into a reserve role on another team, particularly one who can be a 1 or 2 year option while Lux recovers or they get a free agent next winter. Voilà! 32-year-old longtime starting SS Kyle Farmer seems to meet all of those criteria.
Interestingly enough, the Dodgers could also use a proven outfielder. They do have Mookie Betts in right, but are looking at an aging Chris Taylor and an unproven  Trayce Thompson to play center with a very unproven James Outman in left. It seems like a respected veteran like Max Kepler might be a good fit.

I think there's a real possibility that Kyle Farmer becomes a trade talking point between the Twins and the Dodgers. It would not surprise me if Kepler is also in the discussion. The Dodgers have a deep farm system particularly in pitching and catching. I do think there's a match. May be a Caleb Ferguson or Andre Jackson might be a good piece for Farmer. Add Kepler and maybe you can get Outman, Landon Knack, or Nick Mastrini or 1 of them plus someone a little farther down the list? Who knows, maybe there's a way to pry Ryan Pepiot away if you offer, Farmer, Kepler and maybe a solid AA guy.
I think there's a real opportunity here for the Twins to trade what are now somewhat redundant pieces - a 32-year-old starting caliber Shortstop who will be relegated to a reserve role for the one year he is with the team and a 30-year-old good fielding, roughly average hitting outfielder for whom there seemed to be adequate replacements. The Dodgers are a win now team that needs both those kinds of players. What you guys think?

This is one person's view concerning the possible upcoming free agency of Shohei Ohtani.
There have been many predictions that Ohtani may be the first $500M player.  The reaction of most people is that a price tag like that eliminates the Twins.  But, does it?
If Ohtani becomes a free agent, I think the Twins should make a quick offer of 8 years at a total of $480M (an AVV of $60M).  WTF? you say?  Why not?  You get a genuine "ace" and a top tier outfielder wrapped up in a single person.  The top three free agent pitchers in 2022 signed for an average AVV of $32M and the top three free agent hitters signed for an average AVV of $27M (or $59M combined).  The offer looks outrageous but it is in line with the going rate.  It also frees up an additional roster spot!  And, from what I am hearing on MLB radio and TV, the merchandise sales in Japan alone might cover the entire salary.  It is certainly worth taking a shot at signing Ohtani.  Tell his agent it is your BAFO (best and final offer) and is good only for 24 hours.  If he signs, great.  If he doesn't sign, you gave it your best shot.

Although the Twins are really hurting for viable future catching yet it seems like Ricardo Olivar is totally off the Twins radar. In '22, Olivar was named the MVP of the FCL, FCL post season All-Star catcher and FCL player of the month in July. Although he's listed at catcher, where he played the most of his games, he still played a lot of games at CF and some at 2B and cOFs. He's also good defensively w/ above average arm.
Season Team Level Age G PA HR R RBI SB BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA   wRC+         2021 MIN FCL 19 34 59 1 5 5 3 13.6% 28.8% .143 .290 .204 .339 .347 .336   92         2022 MIN FCL 20 40 154 5 16 23 5 11.7% 21.4% .256 .430 .349 .442 .605 .480   181 He got drafted in '19 but didn't start pro ball until '21 because of covid. Like a lot of these prospects during this time their development stopped & they became stagnant. The problem is he turned 21 last Aug, & that's a little old for rookie ball. My hope is like Endy Rodriguez exploding this year going from A to AAA, Olivar will do this coming year starting at A ball. Endy was Rule 5 draft eligible this year & Ricardo will be next year.
Ricardo didn't even make TD's honorable mention but he's been on my radar & I'll be tracking him this coming year. 

Deciding the "Mount Rushmore" of any sports franchise can be hard to do. Most franchises have many great players who are deserving. Here are the four who make up my Minnesota Twins Mount Rushmore.
Harmon Killebrew Killebrew played for the Twins from 1954-1974. He was a 13-time All-Star, won the American League MVP award in 1969, and finished his career with 573 home runs. He currently sits at 12th in all-time home runs. With the Twins, Killebrew hit .256/.376/.509 with 559 home runs, 1559 RBI, and 1843 walks. He also won six American League home run titles and led the MLB in RBI three times. Killebrew finished his baseball career with the Kansas City Royals in 1975. When his career wrapped up, Killebrew finished 1st in Twins RBI, WAR+ and home runs. Killebrew was inducted as a member into the Hall of Fame in 1984. When Killebrew retired, he was one of the most feared hitters ever and one of the greatest sluggers in baseball history. All of these accolades earn Killebrew a spot on the Twins Mount Rushmore.
Kirby Puckett Kirby Puckett, in addition to being a fan favorite was a great player. Puckett batted .318 in his career, which is the highest in Twins history. Puckett won the AL batting title in 1989 with a .339 average, and he finished in the top ten in batting average eight times in his career. Puckett had 2,304 hits in his career, which is the second-most in Twins history. Puckett was a 10-time All-Star, which is tied for the most ever in Twins history. Puckett was a key part of the Twins' two World Series championship teams in 1987 and 1991. In the 1991 World Series, he hit .429 with two home runs and six RBI in the series. His most famous moment as a Twin was his walk-off homer in game 6 in 1991. Puckett won many awards during his career. These included six Gold Gloves, the 1989 AL batting title, and the 1991 AL Comeback Player of the Year award. Unfortunately Puckett's career was cut short due to retina damage in his right eye following the 1995 season. Puckett was named to the MLB Hall of Fame in 2001. Overall Puckett's combination of hitting, defense, and postseason success make him one of the greatest players in Twins history and earns him a spot on the Twins Mount Rushmore. 
Rod Carew Rod Carew was one of the best Minnesota Twins players of all time because of his performance both at the plate and in the field. During his 12-year career with the Twins (1967-1978), Carew hit for a .334 batting average, which is the highest in Twins history. He took home the American League batting title in seven of those 12 seasons with the Twins, including four consecutive titles from 1972 to 1975. In 1977, he hit .388, the highest batting average by any American League player since 1941. Carew was an All-Star in all 12 seasons with the Twins. Carew was the AL MVP in 1977. Carew was also a really good fielder. He won a Gold Glove in each of his last five seasons with the Twins. Carew was named to the MLB Hall of Fame in 1991. Rod Carew's greatness as a hitter, combined with his exceptional fielding ability, makes him one of the greatest players in Minnesota Twins history and puts him on Mount Rushmore.
Joe Mauer Joe Mauer wraps up this list. In his time with the Twins, Mauer played 15 seasons with the Twins (2004-2018). In that time he hit over .300 in nine seasons and finished his career with a .306 batting average. Mauer's defense was incredible, he was a Gold Glove-winning catcher 3 times during his career and was widely regarded as one of the best defensive catchers in the game during his prime. Mauer won multiple awards throughout his career, including the American League MVP award in 2009. He also won three Gold Gloves, five Silver Slugger awards, and was selected to six All-Star teams. Mauer's stats were excellent; he had 2,123 hits, 143 home runs, 923 RBI, and 1,018 runs scored. He also drew 939 walks and struck out only 877 times in 7,708 plate appearances. Mauer's career on-base percentage was .388, which is among the highest in Twins franchise history. Overall, Joe Mauer was a fantastic player who excelled on both sides of the field. His awards and stats all contribute to his legacy as one of the best players in Twin's history and earn him a spot on the Twins Mount Rushmore.
With players such as Johan Santana, Tony Oliva, Bert Blyleven and Torii Hunter being left off this list there is plenty of room for debate on who deserves to be on the Twins Mount Rushmore.
 

The Nelson Cruz for Joe Ryan trade should benefit the Twins for many years to come. This trade will give the Twins a quality pitcher for years, while only having to give up a 40-year-old Cruz whose career is on the decline. In return, the Twins acquired a player whose career is just getting started and will help the Twins compete for years to come.
Twins fans were sad to see fan-favorite, Nelson Cruz, get traded to Tampa Bay at the 2021 trade deadline. Cruz was a part of the 2019 Bomba Squad where he slashed .311/.392/.639 and hit 41 homers. He was a huge piece of the 101-61 first-place Twins. In 2020 Cruz slashed .303/.397.595 with 16 homers in 53 games and helped the Twins claim another first-place finish. During his time in Minnesota, Cruz finished 9th in MVP voting in 2019 and finished 6th in voting in 2020. In 2021 the Twins were struggling and at the time of the trade were sitting at 41-56. They decided there needed to be a change in the roster, so they flipped Nelson Cruz and Calvin Faucher in exchange for Joe Ryan and Drew Stroman. When Cruz got to Tampa he slashed .226/.238.442 with 13 homers. The Rays traded for Cruz to help them make a deep run in the playoffs and they ended up falling in the ALDS to the Red Sox. In free agency Cruz tested the market and signed a one year deal for $15 million with the Nationals. With them he slashed .234/.313/.337 with 10 Homers. Now Cruz signed a 1 year deal for $1 million with the Padres and with Cruz being 42, his career is going to come to a close soon. 
The prospects in the deal are minor pieces so I won't spend much time on them. The Rays acquired Calvin Faucher. At the time of the trade, Faucher had a 7.04 ERA with 42 strikeouts in 30⅔ innings for Double-A Wichita. He was selected in the 10th-round draft pick by the Twins in 2017.  Last year at the major league level he went 2-3 with an ERA of 5.48 in 21.1 IP. The player the Twins acquired was Drew Stroman. At the time of the trade, Strotman had a 3.39 ERA with 62 strikeouts in 58⅓ innings with the Durham Bulls. He was the Rays 17th-ranked prospect after being drafted in the fourth round in 2017. In 2022 the Twins DFA'd Strotman and he was later claimed off waivers by the Rangers. This offseason he signed a deal with the Giants.
Now let's talk about the major piece acquired for the Twins-Joe Ryan. At the time of the trade, Ryan was a 25-year-old who was about to pitch for Team USA in the Tokyo Olympics. He had a 3.63 ERA with 75 strikeouts in 57 innings for the Durham Bulls, the Rays AAA team. MLB.com put him in the No. 10 spot in Tampa Bay's system.. Ryan joined the Twins at the 2021 trade deadline and in that time he made five starts at the end of the season with 30 strikeouts in 26 2/3 innings. Now the 26-year-old pitcher is coming off a very good season last year where he went 13-8 with a 3.55 ERA in 147 innings over 27 starts. He also impressed with His Hard Hit%, xERA/xwOBA, xBA, and K%. They all ranked in the 63rd percentile or higher. Ryan also set the Twins’ single-season rookie record for strikeouts. Over his last 9 starts, Ryan was impressive and had a 2.81 ERA. There were some bumps in the road with Ryan last year such as how he allowed a .500+ SLG on every pitch but his fastball last season. He’s allowed an SLG% of .531 on his slider with a .368 expected SLG%. His .538 SLG% on his changeup is not a good number compared to his .443 expected SLG%. His curveball struggled last year with a .524 SLG compared to a .354 expected SLG. It is important to remember he is a fastball-reliant pitcher with him using it 60.1% of the time. With his fastball, he has allowed a .183 BA against and a .328 slugging %. With the Twins trading for Pablo Lopez, this year, I believe it will benefit Ryan as he doesn't have to focus on being the Twins front-end guy. He can build off of a good rookie season and help the Twins compete for years to come. It is important to remember that Ryan is just coming off his first full MLB season last year. He is young and still needs time to develop and reach his true potential. If he can improve his off speed numbers he could be a front-end starter for years to come. 
The Twins currently have team control of Ryan through the 2027 season. While Cruz was a fan favorite and it was sad to see him go, trading him sets the Twins up for success in the years to come.

What can we expect the Twins first base situation to look like this year? Right now the Minnesota Twins have two first basemen on the depth chart. Those two players are Alex Kirilloff and Jose Miranda. On opening day we can expect to see Kirilloff at first but with his health always being a concern, the Twins should be looking into alternative options for this upcoming season. I believe that there will be some in-house choices and a free-agency option for the Twins.
In-house options 
Alex Kirilloff  Joey Gallo Jose Miranda Kirilloff will more than likely be the Twins starting first baseman, even though his MLB numbers aren't extremely productive when he is at the plate. Through 387 plate appearances, he is slashing .251/.295/.398 with 11 HRs, 55 RBI, 4.9 BB%, 22.7 K%, and a 91 wRC+. For being one of the Twins top prospects for many years, it's disappointing to see him have such few plate appearances. But It's important to remember that most of the time he's spent on the field he's been fighting through wrist and elbow injuries, With this being said, he's only 25, and I still believe he's got plenty of time to develop into the player he was with the Saints last year. In 2022 he had 157 PA slashing .359/.465/.641, and a 192 wRC+ in AAA. As of right now, he's the best positional fit that the Twins have to be their Opening Day first baseman. 
  Alex Kirilloff Career stats The next option for the Twins would be Joey Gallo who will most likely be the backup first baseman this year, the new signing has 96 career games at 1B through 8 MLB seasons, as we know Gallo is an excellent defensive outfielder with Gold Gloves won in 2020 and 2021. We also know that Gallo can be an everyday first baseman as in 2017 while he was with the Texas Rangers.  He played 59 games at 1B that season. Throughout his total career at 1B, Gallo has 96 games played at first while having a .995 FLD% on 754 chances. That just shows how great of a defender Joey Gallo is at 1B, and will be a very quality backup for the Twins this season. 
 Joey Gallo 1B stats The 3rd option for the Twins this upcoming season will be Jose Miranda, more than likely he will spend his time over at 3rd and being a DH this year and will more than likely only be placed 1st if injuries start to hurt the Twins. Last year Miranda played 77 games at first, with a fielding percentage of .994, and had 505 putouts on 536 chances, while only having 3 errors in those 77 games. For Miranda, it's not the issue of whether or not he can play first, which we know he can, it's that we don't need him to play first. He fits better at 3rd and DH, He will probably play 3rd most of the time with so many of our infield prospects being in the Minors. As the season progresses, we may call some of them up I could see him going more to the DH role.
 Jose Miranda Defensive Stats Free-Agency option
Yuli Gurriel The best Free-Agency option at 1B for the Twins would be Yuli Gurriel, I believe the Twins should sign him to a 1 year deal that is a low risk/high reward deal. Obviously he didn't have his best season last year. In 584 PA he was slashing .242/.288/.360 with a 85 wRC+ which is a bit of a downgrade from his 2021 campaign where he slashed .319/.383/.462 and won the AL batting title. I do believe he can be a great depth piece for the Twins with Kirilloff being extremely injury prone. I believe his ability to stay healthy last year with the Astros, where he tallied up 584 plate appearances and played in 146 games could be huge for a Twins team that struggles to keep players on the field. Even though he is 38, which could be a factor for his health, If he can stay on the field like he did last year It could be a really nice depth addition. The Twins should know the player he is capable to be, and if he returns to his 2021 form it could be a really nice signing for the Twins.
 Yuli Gurriel Career stats With Opening Day more than a month away, the Twins have plenty of time to figure out their plans for 1B. 
     

Much of this off-season has been frustrating for Twins fans. Once again, the Twins failed to pick up a bona fide ace to front the rotation. They did however pull off a major coup by re-signing Carlos Correa for a contract valued will below what many predicted he would get going into the off-season. They also solidified the depth in the rotation by trading fan-favorite Luis Arraez for Pablo Lopez. As we approach Spring Training, where do the Twins stand? 
Let us take a look at predicting the Twins' record based on WAR. Last year, the Twins totaled 36.1 WAR as a team, resulting in a 78-84 record. There is a strong correlation between team WAR and overall wins. 
https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2018/12/26/18155292/correlation-war-wins-pythagorean-expectation-second-order-wins-third-order-wins
A team constructed of all 0 WAR players is said to be around a 50 win team. It could be argued that the Twins under-performed based on their season WAR total last year and probably should have been in the low to mid-80's for wins. A team war total of 45 or better should get the team to a win total in the 90's.  So how do the changes made by the front office equate to 45+ WAR for the 2023 Twins? Below is a projection for individual WAR values for the upcoming season. Each player listed below is followed by a projected number of games and their associated WAR (based on b-WAR). 
Starting IF (12.8 Combined WAR) Vazquez (105, 1.2), Kirilloff (120, 1.5), Polanco (140, 3.0), Correa (140, 5.6) Miranda (130, 1.5). The question marks here are Kirlloff and Miranda. Neither is projected to add huge numbers to the team's total and players such as Kyle Farmer and Joey Gallo can mitigate those two. Both Kirlloff and Miranda have the potential to produce higher WAR values than projected.
Starting OF/DH (12.6 Comined WAR) Gallo (120, 1.8), Buxton (60 CF, 60 DH, 5.0), Kepler (120, 1.8), Taylor (120, 2.5), Larnach (110, 1.5). There are several question marks here, starting with Gallo. The Twins obviously feel Gallo still has some of what he showed in Texas.  Kepler, Gallo and Larnach are all projected to be similar and if one slips, Gordon gives some additional protection. Having Michaeal A. Taylor to play 100 games in CF allows the Twins to keep Buxton healthy and potentially play 120 games in 2023. This could be done by a rotation of something like this every eight games:  CF, DH, Bench, CF, DH, CF, Bench, DH. Obviously projecting 120 G from Buxton is a gamble, but he did put up 4.0 WAR in 92 G in 2022.
Bench (1.9 Combined WAR) Jeffers (55, 0.7), Farmer (100, 0.7), Gordon (60, 0.5). While this may not appear a strength, this may be where this year's Twins may be set up to improve on 2022. They appear to have more depth and players not listed (Wallner, Celestino, Garlick, Lewis, Julien and Lee) potentially able to come up and fill in as needed.
Rotation (12.8 Combined WAR) Gray (3.0), P.Lopez (3.0), Ryan (2.4), Mahle/Maeda/Ober (4.4). Projecting games here was a bit of a challenge. Gray and Lopez's WAR values are in the range of their past two season and Ryan's projects a slight increase from last season (2.2). Mahle, Maeda and Ober all have health concerns, but the hope is that they can hold down the fort between the three of them.  Having Varland, Winder and Woods-Richardson in AAA as players ready step in also mitigates a huge drop in WAR production. There is no "horse" raising this group's WAR, just a bunch of solid contributors.
Bullpen (6.8 Combined WAR)  Duran (2.5), J.Lopez (1.5), Jax (1.0), Thielbar (0.7) Moran (0.7), Alcala (0.4), Pagan (0), Megill (0). The biggest concerns here are Lopez producing closer to what he did in Baltimore as well as Pagan and Megill being used in situations that do not produce negative WAR. This is one area the front office could still help the 2023 Twins. A Michael Fullmer signing makes a ton of sense.
Altogether, this projection gives the Twins 46.9 WAR as a group, enough to push them to 90+ wins for 2023. This should put them solidly into playoff consideration with the new playoff format. While some of the projections may seem optimistic, it could be argued that they are all well within historical performances and allowing for some development from younger players. This squad seems better situated to deal injuries than the past couple of years. The Twins have above average  backups for the three toughest defensive positions (Jeffers, Farmer and Taylor). While there may have been moves that the front office could have made this year to make this team better, it seems as though the floor for this squad is as high as we've seen for a few years. 
 
 

The Minnesota Twins in 2022 saw a lot of inconsistency in the pitching staff. First, pitching coach, Wes Johnson, left half-way through the season, then injuries started to expose the depth of the system. Now in 2023, the Twins have Mahle and Maeda back in the rotation, they added Pablo Lopez to the staff, and people like Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober have much more experience. The bullpen also looks promising with the return of Alcalà and the breakout of Duran and Jax last season. If this staff can stay healthy, they can easily be top 10 in the MLB, but how far will they go? 
 
Rotation
Joe Ryan
After being acquired in the Nelson Cruz trade from the Rays, Joe Ryan dazzled in AAA and impressed after his September call up. Ryan had a strong start to 2022 before getting COVID-19 and turning into average the rest of the season. If Ryan can keep up his early season success, he has the potential to be in the Cy Young debate. 
Goals: Have an ERA under 3.00 and throw 170 innings. Prove that you can be a front of the rotation starter.

Pablo Lopez
Lopez was called up in 2018 with the Miami Marlins and struggled until the 2020 season when he pitched 11 games and had a 3.61 ERA. In 2021, he threw 102.2 innings and had a 3.07 ERA in his breakout year. Though he has struggled with injury problems in the years prior, he had his healthiest year in 2022 and threw 180 innings. However, Lopez steadily regressed each month in 2022, which is a big concern. Now in 2023, Lopez has a lot to prove, since he is playing for a real contender and potentially competing for the #1 rotation spot. 
Goals: Throw another 180 innings (and stay healthy).  Get your changeup back to 2020-2021 form. Have an ERA under 3.60 and be that guy who goes deep into games regardless of success. Finally, stay consistent all of the way through 2023 and do not start to tail off. 
 
Bailey Ober 
Ober made his debut in 2021 and (I’d say) impressed if you consider the situation. The 6-11 RHP continued his solid run in 2022 before running into injury problems. Ober will likely slot in at the sixth starter and will get plenty of opportunities. If Ober can stay healthy, he can be a solid replacement to either Gray, Mahle, or Maeda in 2024.
Goals: Pitch 125 innings and keep an ERA under 4.00. Keep your BB% under 6% and FIP under 3.50.
 
Tyler Mahle
Mahle is a very interesting pitcher to look at statistically. Don’t be fooled by his career 4.35 ERA. Mahle was formerly with the Reds, who have one of the most hitter friendly ballparks. Mahle’s ERA in Great American Ballpark is 5.00 in nearly 300 innings. In over 300 innings on the road, his ERA 3.76. Unfortunately, last season did not go how the Twins planned, as he only made 4 starts with them before an injury shut him down the rest of the year. If Mahle can rebound from his injuries, his ERA will look much closer to 3.70 than the 4.35 mark we have seen previously.  
Goals: Throw 140 innings and finish with an ERA under 3.50. Keep your WHIP below 1.200. Maintain your fastball velocity all the way through the year.
 
Bullpen
Griffin Jax 
If you look at Griffin Jax’s Baseball Savant page, you’ll see a lot of red. After Jax officially switched to the bullpen this year, we saw his average fastball rise almost 4 (!) mph. On Jax’s Instagram this winter, we saw him reach 100 mph. We can only hope that he keeps making these jumps. Last year, Jax had a 3.36 ERA and boasted a SO/9 over 9. Jax has tons of upside and if he continues to improve, he can certainly be a top bullpen arm in the American League.
Goals: Try and make your fastball be more effective. Keep your ERA under 3.50 and your FIP under 3.20.

Jhoan Duran 
Duran had the best Twins reliever season since Joe Nathan in 2006. The best part is that Duran was a rookie, and he was doing this against the opposing teams best hitters. Duran was acquired in the Eduardo Escobar trade from Arizona and so far, Duran is proving that he is worth it. He'll be challenged this year, as he likely won't be the designated closer, but will pitch when the opposing team's hitters come up in the 7th, 8th, or 9th inning. He has the chance to be the best reliever in all of baseball in 2023.
Goals: Prove that the 2022 season wasn’t a fluke. Stay healthy and consistent.
 
Jorge Alcalà
Similarly to Jax, Alcalà’s Baseball Savant page is mostly red. He’s in the 96th percentile for fastball velocity. Fans waited for his return in 2022, but injury kept holding it off until it was too late. Alcalà pitched well in 2022, appearing in almost 60 innings and having an ERA of 3.92. All in all, his floor is very high, but he must stay healthy.
Goals: Stay healthy! Have an ERA under 4.00 and throw 55 innings. Earn a meaningful spot in the big league bullpen.
 
I may be overly-optimistic, but I think that the Twins pitching staff has the potential to be in the top third of the league. It's inevitable, injuries will happen, but they have depth, and if you manage them well, they'll be fine. Don't be surprised if the pitching staff goes under the radar and shocks the rest of the world this year.

The Dynamic Duo have brought a creativity towards acquiring prospects that even Terry Ryan who was the master of acquiring prospects never thought of.
The first example is one of my favorites.  With Ohtani on the market and notifying the Twins they would not be one of the finalists for his services Falvine went and traded their extra international spending cap space for 2 prospects.  They traded 1 million in cap space to the Anaheim Angels of Los Angeles for Pearson a 2nd round draft pick and OF.  The Twins also traded 1 million in cap space to the Mariners of Seattle for David Banuelos a 5th round draft pick and C.  Banuelos is still with the Twins and in AAA.  I hope to see him get in some games with the Twins just to make these trades a success, But we got essentially 2 high draft picks for nothing.
Another example was in the draft when the Twins followed suit from the Astros example and saved money on Royce Lewis to be able to sign another draft pick in the third round who had first round talent.  Today Enlow is one of our top 30 prospects in the system and being creative is how we landed him.  Granted he lost some luster as a prospect because of the lost 2020 season then Tommy John surgery in 2021, but 2023 should be the year he bounces back from that completely so hopefully we have another mid rotation starter being developed here. 
The trade deadline sell off.  Lets face it we were all mad when the Twins threw In the towel and traded several fan favorite players at the time for prospects.  The 2 big names were RP Presley and IF Escobar.  We netted Alcala, Duran, and Celestino from those trades, however.  The trade of Berrios was unpopular as well and we received Martin and SWR.  2 of our top 15 prospects.  For Cruz we got Ryan and Strotman who was a top 30 prospect before regressing. 
As much as I didn’t like the sell offs I did like this next technique.  Making a trade and a little bit more…. When the Twins traded Lewin Diaz to Florida, they got Romo and a little bit more in prospect Valimont (who was a top 30 prospect before regressing).  He is no longer with the Twins but this is not the only example.  When the Twins traded Garver to the Rangers for their SS Isiah Kiner-Falefa the Twins got a little bit more with Henriquez who is a top 30 prospect.  With the trade for Lopez the Twins got a lot (little bit more) with Jose Salas a top 15 prospect and Byron Chorio which is essentially an extra international signing. 
I actually forgot this and am now adding but they also got Severino when the Braves were penalized for their international signing practices and the Twins were able to swoop in and sign Severino away from the Braves for 2.5 million.  This added another in and out top 30 Twins prospect.  As Seth Stohs points out he should be in AA next season and 1 year younger then the average player at that level.  He also had a high OPS last year.  
The one creative way that is missing is the Rule 5 draft.  A favorite of the last regime, but not used by this one.   I am also leaving out the waver wire because most of our acquisitions have not been prospects per se.  Also I don't remember the full details on acquiring Cave from the Yankees I think we gave up Gil who is a great prospect for the Yankees and I don't remember what we gave up for Littell either.  If i remember correctly he was also a pickup from a playoff sell off with the pitcher we had for a week going to New York.  we trade Hnoa to the Braves for that pitcher so essentially a three team trade of Hnoa for Littell and a start by the other pitcher.  
Overall from their creativity we have a #3 starter in Ryan, 2 RPs in Duran and Alcala, a back up OF in Celestino, and 5 of our current top 30 prospects ( Enlow, Salas, SWR, Martin, and Henriquez) and 1 just outside the top 30 in Severino.

The 2022 Minnesota Twins looked like they were destined for success. They had great chemistry and were winning ballgames, they looked closer to their 2019 form than the disappointing 2021 form we had seen the year prior. However, injuries started to take place and the ballclub started to lose games. As disappointing as this was, we got to see a bunch of new prospects. Promising flashes from players like Jose Miranda and Nick Gordon had us itching for 2023. Now that opening day is less than 60 days away, here are some realistic player goals for some Twins Hitters. 
Byron Buxton 
Buxton’s career has always been riddled with health questions. He has played in over 100 games once, and that was back in 2018 when he played 140 games. The results were favorable as he won the Gold Glove and stole 28 bases. Last year we saw the best year of Buxton’s career, as he was named an AL All-Star, had a 138 OPS+, and actually gained some national recognition. The problem? He played in 92 games. If Buxton stays healthy, he is a consensus top-10 player and a huge part of the Twins' success.
Goals: Show you can stay healthy and play in 120 games, 80 of them in CF. Maintain an OPS of over .800 and hit 30 home runs.

Carlos Correa 
The Twins signed Correa to essentially a one-year contract last offseason, and expectations were set high. Correa struggled in the first two months, posting a .633 OPS. Was it the cold? The new home and clubhouse? Just a random bad stretch? Who knows, but he quickly recovered and played like a high-level All-Star for the rest of the season. Now that Correa is here long term, he should be one of the ultimate factors to the Twins success not only this year but in the next five.
Goals: Prove that you are worth over 30 million. Finish top 10 in MVP voting and be a finalist for Gold Glove. Help develop and mentor young guys like; Royce Lewis, Jose Miranda, Brooks Lee, and Edouard Julien.
Jose Miranda 
Although he was never a top-of-the-line prospect, Miranda had a lot of excitement last year after his breakout 2021 season. Miranda was called up in May and, well, let’s just say he struggled. He posted a .532 OPS and eventually got sent back down to AAA. When he got another shot in June, he didn’t put it to waste. Miranda impressed in June, then impressed even more in July, and remained a steady anchor for the Twins lineup for the rest of the year. Miranda showed very promising flashes in 2022 and if he continues to develop, he should be a core part of this franchise for years to come. 
Goals: Show that you can stay at the hot corner. Prove yourself as a 4-5 hitter in the lineup and post a .780 OPS.
Alex Kirilloff
The former first-round pick had a lot of questions heading into the 2022 season. Will he stay healthy? The ultimate answer was no. Kirilloff has had constant injury issues, specifically ones with his wrist. If AK can stay healthy, he can cement himself as a key piece into the unproven Twins outfield. 
Goals: Prove that your wrist won’t be an issue in the future. Play in 100 games this year and prove that you have your power back by hitting 15 home runs. Post an OPS of over .780 and show that you belong in the future of this team.

Joey Gallo 
Joey Gallo was a star in Arlington, and he didn’t start to decline until his trade to New York. Some blame it on the pressure of a big market team. If this is true, Gallo could have a huge comeback season. So far, it seems like Gallo is enjoying Minnesota. If he can control his strikeouts and utilize the shift ban, he can be put back on the map for MLB stars.
Goals: Be the person you were in Texas. Be flexible on defense as you may see some 1B. Maintain a .200 average, have an OPS+ of over 100, and hit 30 Home Runs.
Nick Gordon 
Gordon was almost forgotten about as a prospect as some major injuries derailed him from stardom. Once a top prospect, he had a ton of upside, especially with his speed. Gordon got a ton of opportunities all over the field and proved himself clutch late in the season. Now with a guaranteed shot in the big leagues, Gordon finds himself with an opportunity to become a full-time big league player. 
Goals: Keep your OPS+ above league average and steal 10 bases. Prove to be more level at the plate: raise your BB% and try to minimize your strikeouts.
Royce Lewis 
Lewis was the first overall pick for the Minnesota Twins back in 2017. Lewis thrived until his 2019 season when he had his first down year. He rebounded winning AFL MVP in late 2019. Due to the canceled 2020 MiLB season and an ACL tear in 2021, Lewis had to be sidelined for two years. Finally getting back on the field in 2022, Lewis Dazzled in AAA and got a call-up. He rocketed past his expectations and looked like that first overall pick that we had seen prior. After suffering his second ACL tear in two years, Lewis is set to come back sometime in the mid-summer and has a chance to prove himself as a big-league player. 
Goals: Stay healthy through the 2023 season. Show that your 2022 stint wasn’t a fluke. Have an OPS+ over league average and a positive OAA. Show that you still have your speed and steal at least five bases.
 
These goals may be a bit aggressive, but I feel like these players have a lot to prove in 2023. Correa said he wanted to build a dynasty in Minnesota, and these players get to decide if that comes true this season.
This is my first blog post with Twins Daily, so please give some feedback! Keep your eyes peeled for 2023 Pitcher Goals. Thank you!

The St. Louis Cardinals non-tendered their once top prospect; since then, there has been little news regarding Alex Reyes. The former all-star has seen a lack of reported interest so far in free agency and could be a fit for any team looking for relief help, meaning every team. There are several reasons to and not to sign Alex Reyes. I want to examine his current outlook to see if he is a fit for the Minnesota Twins. 
Feature Image Via Jeff Curry - USA Today Sports 
The first thing you notice about Alex Reyes when you look at his career is injuries, injuries, injuries. And more injuries. Health has not been a blessing Reyes’ has received in his career and was likely the reason the Cardinals gave up on him. Reyes crossed the 20-inning threshold just twice in his career, in 2016 and 2021. Most recently, he missed all of 2022 due to a shoulder injury. His injuries prior to 2021 didn’t seem to impact his stuff much, but every injury is different. It is unknown whether or not he can be the same pitcher he was two years ago. Given his health track record, it is more likely he doesn’t pitch at all than he gives you innings, and it is very valid that teams are concerned about this. 
The other major concern with Alex Reyes is his control. His raw stuff can compare with the best in baseball but where it’s going is a different story. In his lone full season in 2021, he had the second-highest BB% and second-highest BB/9 in all of baseball. He also had 10 wild pitches in 2021, which would have ranked fifth among qualified starting pitchers. Alex Reyes, a reliever, pitched over 100 fewer innings than his counterparts in that category. His command issues track back to his early minor league days, so it’s likely this problem never goes away. 
So what about the good stuff? He walks everyone, and we have one season to base our entire case to bring him in; what’s the upside? As mentioned before, Reyes was an all-star in 2021, and for good reason. According to Baseball Savant, he was 95th percentile in xBA, 94th percentile in xSLG, 91st percentile in Barrel%, 95th percentile in whiff%, and 87th percentile in K%. Reyes is effective against both left-handed and right-handed hitters as well. Versus lefties, he had a .155 batting average against and a 26.9% K%; versus righties, he had a .195 batting average against and a 33.1 K%. He served as the Cardinals’ primary closer and recorded 29 saves for a team that won 90 games.
His fastball routinely crests triple digits, but I want to focus on his best pitch, his slider. Reyes has maybe the best slider in all of baseball. In 2021, among pitchers with 100 PA against, his slider generated the lowest RV/100 (run value per 100 pitches*) in all of baseball at -3.8, just ahead of Jacob deGrom. It finished top ten in batting average against (3rd .089), SLG against (9th .222), wOBA against (7th .196), swing and miss% (2nd 55.8%), and K% (2nd 56.9%). This is one of the most devastating pitches in all of baseball. 
Alex Reyes is about as big of a risk as you can take on a player. With his persistent command issues and colossal injury history, this could blow up as much as any reliever signing could (shoutout Joel Zumaya). Fortunately, Reyes isn’t set to make much, his arbitration projection, according to MLB Trade Rumors, was just under three million, so a one-year deal for two to three million would make sense. If the Twins were to pull this off, they would likely have a second-year option attached to it. Reyes might have the best stuff out of any Twins reliever, including Jhoan Duran. If Alex Reyes can stay healthy, he could be one of the most dominant relievers in Major League Baseball. 
 
*Run Value: http://tangotiger.com/index.php/site/article/run-values-by-pitch-count
 
 
 

Ok, I am curious what your individual hopes are for the rest of the offseason, prior to opening day. What other moves or changes are you still hoping for, if anything.
*I will preface this by saying, hoping for a healthy roster doesn't need to be one of the ideas. That is one that everyone should hope for every player on every team, let alone your home team/favorite team that you cheer for.
 
Ok, if I am going to pick a few things that I want to have happen prior to opening day, here is how I would play out the rest of the offseason. 
1) Extend Tyler Mahle. I really do think he is an arm that you build with/build around. I'm hopeful for a 4 or 5 year extension. 
2) Acquire at least one more reliever who is setup level good. Someone who can slot in at least as a 7th inning (historically) level good. Bringing Fulmer back would work, but I'd be open to any number of the relievers still on the free agent market or via trade. If they want to bring in more than one guy at this level, great!
3) I still think they could use one more right-handed power bat. I will preface this by adding that I'm not truly in love with Voit or Gurriel on the free agent market, and I don't even truly have a name to go after via trade, but my hope would be it could be someone who could play either 1b/3b or a corner outfield spot occasionally. I'll also say that, I still believe there are too many guys on the 40 man who are left-handed hitters who would fit into this description, but I'd prefer someone with more of a track record. (IF you have a target on who this would work for, I'd love to hear it.) And no, Miguel Sano is not an option for me for this answer.
 
 

Coming into the 2023 Major League Baseball season we have seen plenty of graduations from the top of the Minnesota farm system. Players like Joe Ryan and Jose Miranda are now fully entrenched as big leaguers. With another year removed from the season wiped out by Covid, we have more development having taken place on the farm.
As the Twins head to Fort Myers in a matter of weeks, they will be looking for their youth to again be well positioned to supplement the big league club. Rocco Baldelli’s team is looking to compete in the AL Central this year, and there will at least be a name or two from this group that helps them to do so.
With the last update to this prospect list coming more than a year ago, it’s time for a refresh. Previous rankings can be found below:
2016 Top 15 Prospects
2017 Top 15 Prospects
2018 Top 15 Prospects
2019 Top 15 Prospects
2020 Top 15 Prospects
2021 Top 15 Prospects
2022 Top 15 Propsects
15. Tanner Schobel
A second round pick from Virginia Tech last season, Schobel made his professional debut and spent the bulk of his time at Low-A Fort Myers. In just shy of 30 games he posted a .670 OPS and showed a very strong set of on-base skills. He had a power breakout for the Hokies prior to being drafted, but this is more a solid bat and good fielder than anything.]
14. Matt Canterino RHP
Canterino has appeared all over this list in recent seasons. He threw 37 innings last season before needing Tommy John surgery. At this point he shouldn’t be starting, but he could certainly blossom into a late-inning reliever once returning to a clean bill of health.
13. David Festa RHP
Continuing to creep up prospect lists, Festa’s 2.43 ERA in more than 100 innings last year was impressive. It was his first real season of professional ball and the strikeout rates were nice to see. Festa looked the part of a legit starter at High-A Cedar Rapids, and continuing down that path this season for Double-A Wichita could have him positioned to debut in 2023.
12. Edouard Julien INF
The only reason that Julien isn’t higher on this list is that he’s extremely limited defensively. Julien tore up Double-A for Wichita posting a .931 OPS, and he continued to impress in the Arizona Fall League. There is a very good bat here, and it flashes with both on-base skills and power.
11. Louie Varland RHP
Making his Major League debut for the Twins last season, Varland continues to climb the prospect ranks. His ceiling may not be that of a number two pitcher, but he looks to be a number four at worst and can continue to develop a bit more. This has been an incredible success story.
10. Matt Wallner OF
Wallner made it to the big leagues last year, and it was largely because of changes he made at the plate. His arm has always been solid in the outfield, but reigning in the free-swinging profile to draw more walks and focus on doing damage was huge. There is Brent Rooker downside here, but patience has changed his trajectory some.
9. Yasser Mercedes OF
It’s hard to extrapolate too much from the teenagers playing during the Dominican Summer League, but Mercedes looks special. He posted a .975 OPS and did so with both average and on-base skills to his credit. He looks the part of a toolsy outfielder, and if the bat continues to play, this is a prospect that will keep rising the ranks.
8. Austin Martin INF/OF
It’s pretty clear that Martin is no longer a shortstop, and while he could play either second or third base, he may be best suited for the outfield. After failing to harness power Minnesota was trying to tap into, Martin’s stock could again rise by simply reverting to pure hitter tendencies. He’s not the can’t miss prospect that the Twins acquired from Toronto, but there is a big leaguer here.
7. Simeon Woods Richardson RHP
Acquired alongside Martin in the Jose Berrios trade, Woods Richardson made it to the show first. He distanced himself from the setback that was 2021, and looks the part of a Major League rotation piece. Woods Richardson should get plenty of run at Triple-A this season, and he’ll see time with Minnesota again as well.
6. Jose Salas SS
Part of Minnesota’s return for Luis Arraez from the Miami Marlins, Salas has plenty of unpredictability going forward. As he matures and grows, he could slide to second or third base, but he also profiles as an extremely talented offensive player. Just 19, Salas did post a .723 OPS across two levels of Single-A last season.
5. Marco Raya RHP
A fourth round pick back in 2020, Raya made his professional debut in 2022 after finally being healthy. His 3.05 ERA at Low-A Fort Myers paired nicely with a 10.5 K/9, and his stuff has always looked like he could be a top-of-the-rotation pitcher. More development for a kid that is just 20-years-old is needed, but there is plenty to be excited about here.
4. Connor Prielipp LHP
Taken in the 2022 draft, Prielipp had the makings of a first round pick before undergoing surgery. He likely represents Minnesota's best prospect chance at an ace, and he could conceivably be a top-100 prospect nationally by this time next year. The stuff is special, and doing it as a southpaw makes him that much more valuable.
3. Emmanuel Rodriguez OF
Playing in Low-A at just 19, Rodriguez turned heads in a big way last year. His 1.044 OPS in the Florida State League was jaw-dropping, and it was only injury that slowed him down. He should be healthy coming into 2023, and there is no reason another strong season couldn’t vault him into the top 25 of prospects lists.
2. Brooks Lee SS
Drafted for his hit tool, Lee did exactly that during his professional debut. He batted .303 with an .839 OPS and made it all the way to Double-A in year one. There is no reason why Lee can’t play for the Twins as early as this year, and he looks to be among the most polished players from any recent draft class.
1. Royce Lewis SS
Making his big league debut in place of Carlos Correa last season, Lewis looked the part of an All-Star shortstop. Another unfortunate injury got him, but the production for the Twins was enough to drool over. It has never seemed wise to doubt Lewis, but his ceiling remains as high as it has ever been.

Since Arreaz was traded for Lopez and a top 100 prospect and a lotto ticket prospect.  There are lots of people here writing how disappointed they were.  I am disappointed even though I know the trade was a good one.  With so many people not happy how will that affect the Twins and for how long?  Is there a bell curve to show how team revenues or attendance changes after popular players leave the organization after a trade?  Do the TV ratings drop as well?   I am sure some players wont change the needle much but could there be a drop of say 2500 in attendance for a month or two until the Twins are able to take a commanding lead in the Central division?  that could be a net drop in attendance close to 100,000.  would that affect us in 2024 payroll in some capacity?  What other factors would come into play in this calculation.  It just seems like there is something there that isn't being quantified or used in the trade valuation calculations.  Knowing this could help the front office make trades that not only help the talent level but increase the Team and Fan Morale as well.  
Another way to look at this.  is can the front office through marketing surveys know the popularity of a player and assign a WAR or some unit of value that can be used in negotiations for a trade.  
Another player example would be Joe Mauer.  How would we value him as a fan favorite over other players in a potential trade scenario?  I mean the front office never considered trading Joe because of the Fan Favorite value.  so how do we measure it so it can be useful in trade negotiations?

On December 10th, it was announced that a few Twins had changed their jersey numbers. Trevor Larnach from 13 to 9, Emilio Pagán from 12 to 15, Kyle Farmer from 17 to 12, Bailey Ober from 16 to 17, and Griffin Jax 65 to 22.
This is nothing out of the ordinary; a few players each offseason on any team will request a number change for one reason or another. However, this time, something peculiar happened shortly thereafter.
Joey Gallo was signed less than a week later, and he claimed the 13 number, his number in Texas and New York, which had conveniently been vacated by Larnach. Is this a coincidence? My money is on no; it's incredibly meaningful.
I did exactly what you have come to expect from old Gregg--I've scoured the list of remaining MLB free agents to see what this might mean for the rest of the offseason, and it leaves more questions than answers. Here are my findings:
#9 (Taken by Trevor Larnach)
The only remaining free agent who wears 9 is Dee Strange-Gordon, Nick Gordon's half-brother. Might there be a rift between Larnach and Gordon now that he's preventing his big brother playing for Minnesota? Probably. It's a good thing that Correa is back to try to help keep the locker room intact. Between this and fighting over left field playing time, things could get ugly.
#12 (Vacated by Emilio Pagán; Taken by Kyle Farmer)
Farmer really stepped on Pagán's toes here. It looks like Emilio may have been trying to open the door for Rougned Odor to don a Twins jersey, which makes sense given his history of sucker-punching opponents who homers off his pitchers. Having Odor at second base would definitely help keep Pagán's homerun numbers in check. Watch for a rift between these two teammates as well.
#15 (Taken by Emilio Pagán)
It's been a rough 24 hours in Twins territory with the last two #15 free agents signing elsewhere in Raimel Tapia and Brian Anderson. When will the team finally pull the trigger on the guys they really want?
#16 (Vacated by Bailey Ober)
This was the spot that showed the most promise, though with Trey Mancini coming off the board this week, the remaining pool is thin in Cesar Hernandez and Travis Jankowski. I would bet that the Twins were more in on Mancini than suggested, given that they clearly forced Ober to change numbers to attract him.
#17 (Taken by Bailey Ober)
Ober apparently looked Chris Archer in the eyes and said "This town ain't big enough for two five-and-dives" and took his number, preventing his return. Go get 'em, Bailey!
#22 (Taken by Griffin Jax)
Learned men like me know that there was no shot of the Twins getting Andrew McCutchen with this stunt pulled. Think of the team, Griffin!
This also rains on Jeremy Nygaard's hopes to bring back Miguel Sanó. Surely the big man wouldn't come back if he couldn't get his number back from a relief pitcher. To make matters worse, this also eliminates Robinson Canó from contention. Sure, he switched his number for Roger Clemens in New York, but Jax is no Rocket; he's Air Force, not Space Force.
This also removes Luis Torrens as an option. Sad day for those of you with Luis Torrens on your offseason bingo card.
#65 (Vacated by Griffin Jax)
There isn't even a potential free agent with Griffin's old number. So selfish.