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Is there a way to calculate the Value of "Fan Favorite"


Brandon

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Since Arreaz was traded for Lopez and a top 100 prospect and a lotto ticket prospect.  There are lots of people here writing how disappointed they were.  I am disappointed even though I know the trade was a good one.  With so many people not happy how will that affect the Twins and for how long?  Is there a bell curve to show how team revenues or attendance changes after popular players leave the organization after a trade?  Do the TV ratings drop as well?   I am sure some players wont change the needle much but could there be a drop of say 2500 in attendance for a month or two until the Twins are able to take a commanding lead in the Central division?  that could be a net drop in attendance close to 100,000.  would that affect us in 2024 payroll in some capacity?  What other factors would come into play in this calculation.  It just seems like there is something there that isn't being quantified or used in the trade valuation calculations.  Knowing this could help the front office make trades that not only help the talent level but increase the Team and Fan Morale as well.  

Another way to look at this.  is can the front office through marketing surveys know the popularity of a player and assign a WAR or some unit of value that can be used in negotiations for a trade.  

Another player example would be Joe Mauer.  How would we value him as a fan favorite over other players in a potential trade scenario?  I mean the front office never considered trading Joe because of the Fan Favorite value.  so how do we measure it so it can be useful in trade negotiations?

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Joe Mauer had a no trade clause in his contract as  Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa do now. 

The most popular and valuable Twins player ever was traded - Harmon Killebrew.

Sadly, it is a business just like everything else touching money. Yes, religion too.

The way it is. So it goes.

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The can definitely measure things like merchandise sales. I'm sure they have a lot of market research data on many topics.  I'm not sure how many individual guys move the needle that much, though.  Correa and Buxton are probably the only ones worth mentioning now. An ace starter (or one who starts throwing like one) can do it.  But most guys, if you move them in an attempt to get better, that won't move the needle at all.  (Now if they start dumping salary, that will.) 

Edit to add: Arraez might be a little different, because his style reminded so many people of Carew and we love our batting titles.  I think any impact will be short-lived.  

The main purpose of a no-trade clause isn't to prevent the player from being traded.  Mauer might have been an exception there - he might have said (if asked) that this is home and I'm not waiving that no-trade clause for anything.  But most guys will waive it if the team is struggling, they can go to a contender, and maybe get a bit of extra cash out of it  They just don't want the risk of of being shipped off to Pittsburgh if they don't want to there.  

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I've been kicking around the same question lately.  WinsAboveReplacement has such precedence in the computations, that fan "rooting interest" hasn't quite kept up as a priority.

And yet, as someone who travels six hours just to go to Target Field, having some idea of who will be playing when you get there DOES matter when planning the trip.  Now, admittedly, several families go just to go...and couldn't name four guys on the roster either way :)

I would love to get my hands on player jersey/t-shirt sales, and the rest of the metrics at the disposal of the club. I'm looking forward to seeing how players are represented in the attire and energies of their local fan bases this season as I catch some road games. It would be possible, one would think, to ask TV viewers why and who they watch for in games, especially on the verge of the Twins' new TV contract. Or do they have the data, and it says fans pay to watch the "laundry" that is the Twins jersey, regardless of who is in it?

In another vein, the Adam Thielen conversation this week speaks to some of the ways Midwestern folk deal with "loss and grief" around local players and local squads. 

Curious to see what others think.  Thanks for bringing it up!

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I'm sure hoping the moves the Twins made this off season propel the team to the playoffs.  That is questionable.  Losing fan favorites isn't helpful for sure.  But winning and playing exciting baseball will bring fans.  Yes winning.  The two s have been almost unwatchable lately

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Winning will cure everything that is wrong with the twins.  Fans will always have a favorite if the team is exciting and winning.  They are finally paying enough talented guys to be competitive and developing the homegrown kids.  There will be a new “fan favorite” but it will always suck that Arraez got traded. 

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Things to consider is

monetary value:

fan morale:

team morale: 

I m sure some of this is taken into consideration to some degree and they know that most dips are temporary with the caveat that the trade is at least beneficial to our team.  But the other example is the Rays.  They win alot but are boring because most fan favorites get traded.  so there is a value to this and it can impact the following season's payroll if revenues dip.  (not really from the Arreaz trade but if several fan favs leave or are traded...)  

How would something like this be quantified so that it can be used by management for trade purposes?

to get a possible answer started I think it would be a weighted possible outcome of the trade.  Also i think a trade in season may have more effect then the offseason since in the offseason there is time for fans to grieve the loss of fan fav and to start looking for a new one.  

so three possible outcomes for simplicity sake i will go with 30 / 40 / 30 % liklihood of happening

30% liklihood of Lopez getting injures and Arreaz winning a batting title in Miami (how does this affect the three things above and what is net attendance change as a direct result of this info?  and is there a way to quanitfy this?  Do we see some Miami jerseys at Target Field as a result?)  Do fewer people watch games or a few more from Minnesota tune in to watch Miami games instead?  (This can be tracked through MLB.com) maybe see a net loss of 500 per game or 80,000 fans at games through out the season which could lower revenues 6 million at 75 per fan per game.  plus maybe viewership of games go down on MLB.com.  I dont think that impacts our bottom line.... 

40% liklihood of both Lopez and Arreaz performing well (I imagine this would help both clubs as we may see some in Miami follow the Twins and some in Minnesota following Arreaz in Miami.  Interest in both teams go up a little.)  

30% likelihood of Lopez performing well and Arreaz getting injured.  

anyways this is a hard topic and i dont have the answers just a few ideas of what could go into a calculation and wonder if there is a way to determine it.  someone who wants a front office job in college can now write a detailed paper on this and probably get a job offer if it is compelling enough.   

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On 1/24/2023 at 2:29 PM, Whitey333 said:

I'm sure hoping the moves the Twins made this off season propel the team to the playoffs.  That is questionable.  Losing fan favorites isn't helpful for sure.  But winning and playing exciting baseball will bring fans.  Yes winning.  The two s have been almost unwatchable lately

I get 2021 was a disaster, but let's not forget that the Twins were in the division race as Labor Day approached in 2022.  I drove from Western Arkansas to Cleveland to see them play the 5 game series with the Guardians Guardians in mid-September, but when I made the plans to go, I thought that series was going to be much more important than it turned out to be.  Twins lost 4 of 5, but with guys like Cave, Celestino, Wallner, Contreras, and Billy Hamilton in the outfield, Gordon playing out of position at second, and four rookie starters in the series (Ryan, Winder, Ober and Varland), I couldn't really have expected much more.  

The injury bug bites all teams, but it bit the Twins hard last year while they were in first place.  

JcS

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On 1/23/2023 at 8:12 PM, tony&rodney said:

Joe Mauer had a no trade clause in his contract as  Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa do now. 

The most popular and valuable Twins player ever was traded - Harmon Killebrew.

Sadly, it is a business just like everything else touching money. Yes, religion too.

The way it is. So it goes.

Actually, Killebrew as released.

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maybe it's my age showing or just how the game progressed through the years, but was killebrew REALLY more popular than puckett? i find it hard to believe. 

better person? without a doubt. better character? obviously. more popular? consider me dubious.

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