TopGunn#22

I'm a Twins fan FIRST and a Dodgers fan 2nd. (goes back to childhood). While I'm happy Bauer chose the Dodgers over the Mets (because he's pretty good) I think the deal is CRAZY !! Bauer is NOT Jacob deGrom. Bauer has been very good in 2 of the last 3 seasons but his overall career numbers are somewhat pedestrian. Maybe he's ready to turn the corner for a number of years of sustained excellence. But those kind of contract numbers are something only the Dodgers, Yankees and maybe the Mets and Red Sox can "absorb" if it doesn't work out. Bauer is now set to make more than the entire 26-man rosters of 3 teams. (The Cleveland Indians are one of them). That's just CRAZY.

I'd still like to see a Paxton signing so I'd vote for Tortuga. With Rortvedt getting close I'd rather hang onto Blankenhorn and Gordon for now.

Agree Seansy, especially if Kepler is going to be a Twin for the next 5-years. Plus, there are other, very young, toolsy OF'ers in the pipeline. Castillo is clearly the best, I might put Marquez ahead of Gallon on talent, but Gallon has the lower salary commitment and is also very good. Larnach will be a pretty good player, but between now and next off season will his value go UP or DOWN ?? Adding good young pitching is NEVER a bad move.

I agree with rdering Lineups full of sluggers FAIL. You need tablesetters. Arraez is a tablesetter. Put him at the top of the order and watch him score 100+ runs. Do the math. If Arraez gets on base at a .380-.400 clip then Donaldson, Cruz, Kepler, etc... will be knocking him him. And I agree with jiminy! Why do we have to stop now?? Teams that are aggressive will set themselves up to be very good in 2021. If you can sign Paxton for $10-million do it ! If he pays off big time he may find he like it here. Then the Twins have a pleasant decision to make---how much are they willing to pay a player like Paxton to stick around ??

I wondered if the "Twins have made an offer to Ozuna" story would be a kick in the pants for Cruz to sign. Maybe it was, maybe it wasn't. But Nellie signed...

This is a good move. Rosenthal was my preference but might have been too spendy. I wouldn't just "hand" the closer job to Colome, but Taylor Rogers needs to get back to 2019 form to be considered for a closer role. So for now, on paper it's Duffey & Rogers the 7th and 8th and Colome the 9th.

This is good news. While I initially back in November said the Twins HAD to sign him, differing opinions with good arguments behind them swayed my thinking the other way. One-Year $13 million is probably fair, as Dante's pointed out Nellie probably out-performed his contract the past two seasons. If this puts the payroll at $125 million do they have $10 million yet to play with ??? I'd like to see another starting pitcher. Go Big with a Paxton signing or go small with Foltynewicz ?? I'd be happy with either as I think Folty is a good gamble. One more arm for the Pen? The impact guy would obviously be Rosenthal. Colome or Clippard would at least be decent. The St. Louis Cardinals payroll is about $160 million---even after acquiring Arenado. Is St. Louis a bigger TV market than the Twin Cities ? (NO) Are their owners richer than the Twins owners ? (NO) What's holding the Twins back from being a "serious" Baseball Team like the Cards?

The PECOTA projections for Nellie do not infuse me with a lot of optimism. To me, that's pretty pedestrian production and would constitute an over pay with a LOT of risk (he'll be 41 years old this season). Ozuna seems like a MUCH wiser investment at this point and he could even play some LF in addition to being the primary DH. Duval looks like a "cheaper" but very attractive and cost efficient option. I've been pining for the Twins to sign Paxton all off season. They should get him. An addition of Paxton and Duval would be good. An addition of Ozuna AND Paxton would be tremendous !! And would quite possibly thrust us over the White Sox as the dujour pick to win the division.

I agree, GREAT post So.Dak Tom. I've been thinking this way for awhile now. I mentioned in another post that here I was back in November stating that the Twins simply MUST bring Cruz back. He's their BEST hitter !! However if I could sign Rosenthal and Paxton for what it would cost to sign Cruz I'm going for the pitching. SP: Maeda, Berrios, Paxton, Happ, Pineda (Dobnak) There's 6 guys that would be talented and give you some leeway with guys missing a start here or there. Rosenthal caps off a truly talented and deep Twins BP. I'm worried Cruz only has one year (maybe a half a year) of mashing left. But I agree with So.Dak Tom the Twins seem to wait around for 3-run HR's too much. Pitch. Play Defense. Hit better. If Sano, Polanco, Kepler and Garver all don't improve greatly we're in trouble. If Donaldson can't stay healthy...we're in trouble. Why not pitch and play defense and let your offense come back around. I predict Kiriloff is going to be a tough out hitting 6th or 7th. A tougher out than Eddie was.

There are not 100 MLB prospects who are better than Trevor Larnach. Because of his size, I could see the Twins having him play a few more games at 1B. But remember, Twins prospect Sabato is either a 1B or DH (that's it). Kiriloff will probably be the better hitter, but by how much ? In the College World Series that Larnach led his Oregon State team to the Championship, every time the Beavers needed a big hit, Larnach was at the plate. And every time the Kid delivered. I don't consider Jeffers a "prospect" anymore. He was up with the Twins and played a lot. He has nothing left to prove in the minors. So for ME, I include Balazovic in the Top 5. Jeffers is a Big Leaguer. I could very much see the Twins keeping Kiriloff in St. Paul for the first 3-weeks of the season and platooning Arraez and Rooker in LF (I'd rather play those two than Cave or Wade).

The Twins haven't had SS defense like this since Gagne (who in my opinion was ALWAYS underrated) and as good as Gags was Simmons is in a level far above Gags. I would like nothing better than for Simmons to have the kind of year that the Twins braintrust has to seriously step back and consider a 3-year extension.

He's spot on regarding Andrew Vaughn. That's why the Sox aren't signing Ozuna or Cruz. That kid can flat out HIT and he will be up with the Sox sooner than many people realize.

And that's the weird state of the state in baseball today. Arenado is by any measurement a cornerstone. A player you build your team around (Trevor Story is as well). When the Cardinals send 5 minor leaguers (none of which are rated higher than the 6th best in the Cards farm system) AND Colorado sends $50 their way as well I'd have to say the Cards made out like bandits. Arenado and Goldschmidt at the corners and batting #3 & #4 in their lineup. Gotta love the Cards front office. Historically, if the Cards NEED something, their F.O. finds a way to get it done. This trade could prove to be tremendous for the Rockies. Three or four of these guys might just work out. They shed a HUGE salary. But I'm betting my mortgage that the Cards won this. BIG TIME. They didn't give up Dylan Carlson, Alex Reyes, Bader, O'Neill, any of their other young pitchers. Imagine if the Twins had given up Gordon, Cave, Enlow, Blankenship and Dakota Chalmers and gotten Arenado AND $50 from the Rockies. Then shifted Donaldson to 1B and made Sano full time DH. Arenado and Simmons on the left side of the infield...WOW. Would you be a happy Twins fan today ???

Great point about McPhail Doc. When we needed Jack Morris he went out and got him. When we needed a toolsy outfielder he found Shane Mack. The problem with the Terry Ryan/Billy Smith years was that despite having MVP's (Mauer & Morneau) and CY Young Winners (Santana) the Twins NEVER went out and made that Big, Splashy, trade deadline deal to put them over the top. The Twins were GOOD. But perpetually NOT GOOD ENOUGH. They wasted some good years.

Major League Ready hit the nail on the head with his comment about budget. The Twins haven't really said anything about what it is. All any of us is doing is projecting what we think is a reasonable estimate. For example: If Cruz was to be signed for one year at $10 million with another $3-$4 million in incentives they very well COULD afford someone like Rosenthal to be their closer. Rosenthal would give them a very good overall bullpen. Rogers & Duffy have the 7th & 8th. Rosenthal the 9th. Rogers and Duffey can close if need be. But I agree that one more THUMPER is needed in that lineup and even if it's Cruz when does the fall off begin and at his age he will spend at least 2 stints on the IL and will also need regular rest. Is Ozuna at 4-5 years and $20 million per year a better investment than one-year of Cruz? If Cruz were to hit his Performance Bonus of the additional $3-$4 million than Cruz at one-year $14 million is a better investment than the Ozuna option. But Ozuna is 10-years younger and is undeniably a VERY GOOD hitter. Hitting #3 or #4 in the Twins lineup he would look very good. And he can play a little LF if they need. But as Major League Ready said: "What actually IS the budget" ???

I wish there was a way for the Twins to sign Cruz and still add Trevor Rosenthal but I don't know if it can be done. I LOVE Nellie Cruz. In his two seasons, few Twins have been more fun to watch hit. But his production is going to fall off a cliff sometime. It could be next year. It could be THIS year. And we have so many young hitters that could use AB's----is a significant investment in Cruz wise ?? If I could count on Cruz influencing Sano to hit and produce like he did in 2019 it would be worth it. But I'm just not that sold on Sano anymore. I have serious doubts Sano ever has another year like 2019. But that's part of the "wishful thinking" of bring Nellie back.

Well O.K. The Twins can't get Ozuna for $20 a year. But $20 Million a year ??

What if: Simmons plays so well the Twins would consider bringing him back on a 3-year deal Royce Lewis comes up mid-season and immediately moves into the super-utility role Lewis shows flashes both with the bat and the glove but also frustrates with both occasionally. The Twins, fearful Cruz is too one-dimensional and may be ready to suffer a steep decline offer Ozuna $20 a year for 5 years ? If Simmons hits in the #9 spot Where does Buxton hit ??? If the hitting/fielding roster remains unchanged what is the lineup #1-#9 ??

Arraez is no where near the defender Oquendo was for the Cards but is probably a better hitter. I'm a BIG fan of Arraez but he's NOT Tony Gwynn O.K. ? (he'll never run like a young Gwynn). Polanco WILL be a better defender at 2B than Arraez. In 2019 Arraez moved all over the place and he still HIT. If the Twins don't trade Arraez he should be the leadoff hitter whenever he's in the lineup. If I was to trade Arraez there is one scenario I would consider: Ketel Marte is a CLEARLY superior player. He's young and still has a couple of years of team control. He's got more power than Arraez and he's much more athletic. His value is 61.40. I trade: Arraez 43.4 Dobnak 10.00 Cavaco 7.60 Total Value: 61.00 (I'd throw something else in if I had to. Marte would be our 2B-Man and Polanco would be our super utility. (Marte is a very good 2B-man). But Marte is also a good fielder in CF, 3B, either corner OF and could even play SS. Marte is REALLY the super utility but because he's CLEARLY better defensively at 2B than Polanco that's where he starts. However, when Buxton, Donaldson, whoever, get's hurt and needs some time MARTE can step right in and Polanco starts at 2B until the injured player comes back.

So Doc Bauer's article was originally posted last November. It looked familiar and there I am with Post #15 expressing my admiration for Cruz as simply our best darn hitter. HE MUST BE BROUGHT BACK !! And now it's Jan. 28th (practically the 29th) and I've kinda come full circle. We finally have a Gold-Glove caliber SS. Polanco and Arraez will play 2B and be "Super Utility" guys. We made a nice signing in JA Happ and the rotation of Maeda, Berrios, Happ, Pindea and Dobnak ain't bad But I wouldn't mind still signing Paxton. OR bringing in Mike Foltyneicz on the cheap with the chance we strike gold. I'd love to see Trevor Rosenthal closing games out by blowing hitters away and a really strong Twins bullpen. But there's only so much money and Cruz would apparently take up $15-$18 million of that. Potential DH's: Sano, Kiriloff, Arraez, Polanco, Donaldson, Larnach, Garver, Rooker, maybe Kepler. That's 9 guys! I don't see Jeffers as a DH. Garver can DH if jeffers is catching. Otherwise the guys I listed are either better hitters or potentially better hitters than Jeffers. That said, I'm kind of more interested in strengthening the team pitching wise than investing in a 41 year old DH no matter how much I admire him. And we've got LOTS of young hitters I'd like to see get some additional AB's. We have Good Power. But I don't think we'll see the record setting power of 2019 again. At least not for a while. We need to pitch better and catch the ball better and see bounce back years from Kepler, Polanco, Sano, and Garver. We need to be a better TEAM. I'd love to see Nellie back. But I may just love some of that other stuff more.

No Doc, Castillo pitches for the Reds. Baez and Bryant are Cubs. Did Jon Paxton sign somewhere? Did I miss that ?

Very happy with the signing of Simmons and at practically half the price it took Toronto to sign Semien. There's always a bit of an empty feeling when nobody makes the Hall of Fame. Bonds and Clemens don't bother me. They were cheaters, plain and simple. But Schilling is a different story. Not once have I ever read of a former teammate accusing him of being a racist. Not one former teammate has described him as the most vile person he ever knew. Schilling's sin apparently is that he has political beliefs that offend many in the press Is THIS where we are as a country now? Apparently so. Cancel Culture to the max Reverse Schilling's situation for a moment. "Lebron James is probably not going to get into the Basketball Hall of Fame. LeBron's obvious "sellout" to China to enrich himself when he declined to call out the Communist Chinese Government for their oppressive treatment of many ethnic groups as well as his outspoken support for far left groups like BLM and Antifa and his obvious vote for Joe Biden in the 2020 Presidential Election have effectively disqualified James from ever being voted into the Basketball Hall of Fame" said many NBA Hall of Fame voters who consider themselves the ultimate arbiters of what is good and decent and what is immoral and deplorable in a human being." "Though LeBron's on court accomplishments are undeniable, he just doesn't measure up" said Hall of Fame voter Blizten McGurdy. I have to admire Schilling's statement basically telling the hall of fame voters "go take a flying leap at a rolling donut." "I don't need you to validate my life.'

Well, I was hoping for something like this. Short of trading for a Story or Baez this move allows the Twins to vastly upgrade defensively at SS. 2B is not as vital a defensive position as SS (this is why Kolten Wong, while a nice addition for some teams isn't as necessary for the Twins). If Simmons has a GOOD year for the Twins it will depend on how Buxton does this year and when/if Lewis makes it up and how he shows at SS. Simmons is looking for the one-year deal to build his value back up (I can't believe the Blue Jays signed Semien for one-year and $18 million---Twins got the better player at half the cost). Simmons may make it tough for the Twins NOT to bring him back. But a lot of that will depend on the year and health he has as well as Buxton & Lewis I'd still like to see Rosenthal and Paxton signed (that would cost us Cruz) but with all the potential DH guys we have I'd kind of like to see the $$$ spent to shore up more needed areas. DH's could be: Arraez, Rooker, Sano, Donaldson, Kiriloff, Polanco, Garver and even Larnach at some point. Maeda, Berrios, PAXTON, Pineda & Happ ROSENTHAL, Rogers, Duffy, Robles, Alcala, Theilbar, Stashek, Colina That's a pretty good starting staff & BP.

I agree with Minny505 Where is the "pessimism" on Twins daily ?? I would like to see improved infield up the middle defense for the Twins but I'm more focused on SS than 2B. Arraez should be at the top of the order for years to come. The ONLY scenario I can envision in which he's NOT is if we traded him to the D-Backs to acquire Ketel Marte. Marte is a clearly superior player in every regard and would plug a LOT of holes for the Twins with his excellent "D" at 2B and ability to play SS, CF, 3B, LF & RF. But a guy who gets on base at nearly a .400 clip at the top of your order is always a significant asset.

That's a VERY good top three prouster. And that's what makes this discussion so spirited and so good. There really isn't a wrong answer. I think Bonds is a cheater so he's not in my top three. He's not even in the discussion. But Mike Sixel isn't wrong for wanting to include him and even have him in his top three. And yup. How could I have not even mentioned Ricky Henderson. My Bad. He's certainly in the discussion.