TopGunn#22
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Everything posted by TopGunn#22
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Julien looks utterly confused at the plate. He takes far too many called third strikes for a guy that was the "God of Walks" in the minor leagues. He still has the potential to be a very good offensive player. He's improved slightly at 2B but he's still a guy without a position he's above average at, whether that would be 2B, 1B or even LF. Because of his offensive potential, he remains an O.K. trade chip. I've included him in trade speculation because he meets the requirement of a throw in kind of guy to get a deal done. With Castro, Lee, Keaschall and Eeles there seem to be plenty of options beyond Julien that he could be included in a trade to help the roster in other areas. Tony&rodney...I like some of your trade suggestions. None of us here on TD ever speculate as wildly on a possible trade as the "Could the Vikings trade Darnold for Stafford" type of deal. But trades are so hard to realistically imagine because like beauty, it's in the eye of the beholder. Who knows what the Red Sox, or Dodgers, or Brewers think of our players and how they could help improve their team. Baseball Trade Values at least tried to approximate what a "fair" trade could look like. But I refuse to pay for what once was free, and there are still limitations as to what that site could actually do. I agree that some young, currently in the minor leagues catcher who is blocked by an All Star type (Contreras--Brewers, Smith--Dodgers) should be a primary target, based on the lack of any catching prospects in our own system being anywhere close to ready. I also maintain that Miami had interest once in Vasquez and I think they still do. If Alcantara was the target (provided Miami would part with their former Cy Young pitcher ready to come off his TJ surgery) the salaries match up for Vasquez for Alcantara. But not having a sense of what Alcantara's current value is after missing all last season it's tough to determine what else would need to be thrown in to get Miami to agree. Your other trade...Jeffers for Luzardo straight up is also interesting. Vasquez would have to do more than catch 50% of the games. Another deal would be needed to provide someone to be that #2 catcher. The Twins would still be stuck with Vasquez's $10 million dollar contract for a poor hitter even by "catcher" standards. But, the Twins would add an electric arm to their rotation who is also left handed and retain a catcher who is far superior to Jeffers. Getting a SP like Alcantara/Luzardo and giving Jax a shot at joining rotation also allows the Twins the ability to assess what they could get in a deal for either Ryan or Ober, or, possibly trade SWR to fortify a deficiency. I'm not trading Festa. I like what I saw last year and if I had a rotation of Lopez, (Alcantara/Luzardo), Ryan, Ober, and Jax, I'd consider having Festa in the pen with Varland. This by no means would banish Festa to the pen forever. It would just mean he's there until someone in the current rotation needed to go to the I.L. and then I'd build him up and put Festa in the rotation as the replacement.
- 56 replies
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- christian vazquez
- carlos correa
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Excellent breakdown of the Twins position by position with several possibilities for each position. My take: Vasquez---First, I'm in the camp and always have been that he's eminently movable. I will once again bring up the prospect of the Miami Marlins. There catching situation might be the worst in baseball. Starter Nick Fortes hadan OPS of .577 in 2024. His backup, Pereda hadan OPH of .481. That my fellow TD'ers is putrid. They could also use a solid veteran to handle their young pitching staff. The target would be to acquire either former Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara (who is a decent match of salary for salary with the cost averse Marlins) or Jesus Luzardo who is 2 years younger than Alcantara at 27 years old and is LEFT HANDED ! BOTH are coming off injuries so their value is somewhat depressed, but both would be a major addition to the Twins rotation. Each would need to pass a Twins physical. Maybe the Twins throw in someone like Julien. The Marlins were willing to live with Arraez's poor defense at 2B until they traded him to the Padres. The Marlins currently have a 26 y/o 2B named Otto Lopez who showed some promise last year, and he bats RH. Julien could be part of a platoon. First base: I'm willing to stick with Kirilloff and Miranda for the time being. I still love Kirilloff's swing and if Miranda won the job "full time" that wouldn't be a bad outcome either. Take the "win" on Santana's age 38 season and forget about his age 39 campaign. Acquire someone at the trade deadline if need be. If we shed Vasquez and add Alcantara or Luzardo I would consider a trade of Ryan/Ober to add a young talent like Triston Casas. He would be a tremendous addition for years to come. I also move Jax into the rotation. Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Jax, Festa. Or, Lopez, Alcantara/Luzardo, Ryan/Ober (Casas trade), Jax, Festa. OR...Lopez, Alcantara/Luzardo, Ryan, Ober, Jax for possible rotations. 2nd Base: We've got enough there with Lee and Castro. If we dealt Julien I would consider a guy like Jose Iglesias because his defense at 2B/SS would be a tremendous upgrade over anyone else we have and could be a bridge for one year. SS: Carlos is our guy and Iglesias/Lee/Castro is plenty of depth. 3B: This is tricky. When you consider all the leg issues Lewis was having last year it's no wonder he looked so shaky at 3B. I think he has the talent to play there but health will ALWAYS be a concern. Lee as a guy to play there if Lewis spends time on the I.L. is a great fallback if a vet like Iglesias is available for 2B/SS. I'm rolling with Lee right out of the gate in 2025. No time in St. Paul. I've got confidence in him. RF: WALLNER. CF: Buxton and Keisey. I still think Buxton is tradable to the right team for the right price. Part of that price is a VERY GOOD catching prospect. The Dodgers have several. LF: Larnach and maybe a RH hitter that can cover all three OF positions. If we move Vasquez AND Buxton, off-set with an Alcantara or Luzardo acquisition, could the Twins try to sign a Tyler O'Neill type OF?? Can we spend a little to get an AJ Puk/JKirby Yates type of RP if Jax moves to the rotation? And one Wild card for the Twins next season is Emmanuel Rodriguez. What kind of start does he get off to? How much improvement could he show next season. Running it back with the same cast of characters doesn't necessarily put us past or ahead of Cleveland, Detroit or Kansas City. Some changes need to be made
- 56 replies
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- christian vazquez
- carlos correa
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Great point tony&rodney. One I was going to make after I had read through all the comments (and you beat me to it). The Cleveland bullpen was unbelievably good in 2024. It is the primary reason they won the division. It will regress to some degree in 2025 starting with Clase. He may still save 40+ games in 2025 and he may still be unhittable, but he will certainly not duplicate the truly EPIC season he had for a closer. Just take a look at his final, regular season numbers. Has ANYBODY been THAT GOOD as a closer? We've had some tremendous seasons by closers over the years, but Clase's 2024 is one for the ages. And on the flip side of the probable, to some degree, regression for their BP I can see a pretty good chance for their starting rotation to show some bounce back. Bieber may or may not leave as a FA but if he leaves that's a big hole to fill. McKenzie, Williams and Allen are all better SP's than they showed this year. Bibee and Lively really stepped up and Boyd and Cobb were great additions. (certainly when compared to Trevor Richards). I could see their starting pitching being somewhat better in 2025. Lane Thomas at $8.3 million is a steal. There's no way the Guardians let him walk. Manzardo taking over for Naylor would be interesting, but I just can't see Cleveland letting Naylor go. A 1B/DH time share between Naylor and Manzardo seems more likely. The entire division division with the exception of the White Sox took a giant step forward. Whether it's the Pohlad's or somebody else, ownership needs to realize they have to step up to be competitive and not bring home another 4th place finish. I'm in complete agreement with Riverbrian on the excessive platooning especially with Margot/Farmer types. Wallner, Larnach, Kirilloff, Julien and Kiersey will never learn how to hit LH pitching at the major league level unless they FACE LH pitching. This trend will need to stop for sure once Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins arrive on the scene. E-Rod seems to have extreme plate discipline no matter who is throwing to him and Jenkins wasn't taken #5 overall because there was a concern he may need to be platooned. Having costly, low caliber vets like Margot and Farmer on a roster for a team that acts like paying a RP $2 million per year is an extravagance is not proper roster construction. I'm hoping that with the eventual new ownership we have an organizational purge of the old and a new set of front office people with a different outlook, strategy and philosophy. That means a new manager, some new coaches, no more Dave St. Peter etc... Retain what the new group thinks was done well by the previous regime and put your own stamp on what you think the Twins need to do to be competitive into the future.
- 30 replies
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- jose ramirez
- josh naylor
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Again, I think this is a worthy gamble for the Twins to take that could pay BIG dividends. chpettit19 makes a number of good points, but I would disagree with his "zero chance Jax throws 150 innings" as a SP assessment. Check out what a couple RP's converted to SP's did from one season to the next: Reynaldo Lopez went from 66 relief innings in 2023 to 135 SP innings in 2024. Seth Lugo went from 65 relief innings in 2022 to 146 as a 2023 SP and then from 146 all the way to 207 IP in 2024. Garrett Crochet went from 54 RP innings in 2021 to being injured all of 2022, to 13 innings in 2023 to 146 innings pitched in 2024. So just with those three examples and seeing how Jax profiles to those three guys tells me Jax could be anywhere from 125 innings to as many as 160. The three Twins rookie pitchers were as follows: SWR: Threw 134 innings in 28 starts. An average of 4.8 innings per start. David Festa threw 64 innings and average 4.8 innings per start. Matthews threw 38 innings averaging 4.22 innings per start. Let's look at the Twins "Big Three" and see how many IP they had in 2024 and what could be projected for 2025. Lopez threw 185 innings in 2024 and could be expected to match that or reach 200 IP for 2025. Bailey Ober threw a career high 179 innings in 2024 and he should should give the Twins 175-200 in 2025. Joe Ryan finished the season on the injured list and finished with 135 IP. Normally I would say a healthy Ryan coming back should be good for 175 IP. But here are Ryan's IP the last 3 years...2022 147. 2023 162. 2024 135. Joe's history and profile say he may only be a 150 inning pitcher. So if Jax is an effective to maybe a pretty darn good SP who throws in the neighborhood of 150 IP per season I conclude there is nothing "wrong" with that and a LOT of "right" with that. How would going into a season with effectively TWO Joe Ryan's in your starting rotation be? If you signed a RP like Kirby Yates or AJ Puk (not saying it has to be THEM) your entire pitching staff takes a giant step forward. And I'm willing to take that bet and gamble on Griffin Jax.
- 34 replies
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- griffin jax
- garrett crochet
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I expect this to be an ongoing topic on TD throughout the off season and I welcome it. I am firmly in the camp of giving Jax a shot at the rotation if he wants it. First off, you cannot compare Jax "the previously failed SP" to the pitcher he is now. He's completely different. His fastball is MUCH better. His Sweeper/Slider has always been elite. His change up is much better. But most of all, his command of those pitches is much better. Second, SP's are much more valuable than RP's just due to the amount of innings they throw. "Leverage" changes game to game, but a SP who gives you 5 or more effective innings is something every team needs and wants. As the video points out, Jax is poised to be much more than a "decent" SP. He has the potential to be an All Star. Third, Jax has worked his tail off to attain the level of skill he now has. Why should be be denied the opportunity to maximize his value? Jax will not disappoint in the rotation, and how does a rotation of Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Jax and Festa sound? To me, it would be the best rotation in the A.L. Central and that's saying something. I have zero concern that Jax will fail at this transition. I think he will shine. We have a problem with depending on so many rookies/2nd year guys in our rotation (Festa, SWR, Matthews). While Jax would have to adapt to the workload and mind set of a SP I don't have any worries with him. He's a bulldog and would add an "edge" to the rotation. Rather than shoring up the rotation with an expensive FA (not likely with the Pohlad family but certainly an area of need) this allows the Twins to put SWR or Zebby Matthews in a trade to bring back a needed piece who would balance the current roster more effectively. The Twins are not without options to replace Jax in the 8th inning. Go out and get a RP with closing experience. AJ Puk, Kirby Yates etc...these guys won't cost nearly what a FA SP would or a SP would in a trade. Louis Varland is a potential 7th/8th inning guy. Alcala and Sands are potential 7th/8th inning guys. You would have to gamble on Stewart/Topa whether Jax was pitching the 8th inning anyway. Funderburk and Moran should be healthy to begin spring training. Finally, Rocco has been horrid at "managing" his BP, always juggling guys around for the "high leverage" situation. Rather than chasing "leverage situations" game by game, just define what each guy's role will be and stick to it. Starting with Duran CLOSING. And ONLY CLOSING. I understand and accept others that have an opposing opinion on this. I Rec'd Doc Gast on his comment because even though he wouldn't do it, his reasons are valid. Same with Jmlease1. And Doc Gast echoes my feelings about clearly defined BP roles, especially the 8th inning set up man.
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- griffin jax
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The Twins Have a First Base Problem
TopGunn#22 replied to Greggory Masterson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
All great points Riverbrian. This is part of the frustration of baseball. I can see the benefit of bringing in a guy like Jose Iglesias to be a 2B/SS kind of guy. Last season in 291 AB's he hit .337 with an OBP of .381, a SLG of .448 for an OPS of .830. In 2022 with Colorado in 467 AB's he hit.292 an OB% of .328 a SLG of..380 and an OPS of .708. He is an exceptionally good glove man. He's basically Luis Arraez "lite" with a MUCH better glove. These kind of guys have value. They are not impactful, but they don't hurt you a lot either. Rookies are unproven and "unknown" quantities. That describes guys like Kiersey and Helman. It's OK to have a couple of Kiersey's and Iglesias's on a team. You just can't have too many of either in any given area or position. Case in point: The Twins rotation down the stretch. Very few teams in the history of baseball make the post season with THREE rookies in their starting rotation. You can have a really GOOD rookie (Mark Fidrych, Fernando Valenzuela, Doc Gooden) but you can't have THREE of them, even if one of them is Doc Gooden or Fernando. Each of our rookie pitchers had their ups and downs, but there were predictably more downs than ups in the final month of the season. Add to that an overworked and too often under performing bullpen and it was a recipe for the eventual disaster. Having Lopez, Ryan and Ober in the rotation (and hopefully all healthy) brings that "2nd Year" SP count down to just 2. But having another veteran arm in the rotation for depth (Griffin Jax, FA Pitcher?) would give the Twins a little longer runway. It's easier to add an impactful BP arm than a rotation arm, so if Jax DID move to the rotation Varland and a FA bullpen guy could fill the hole left by Jax. Most of what Riverbrian talked about was lineup/position players we wasted AB's on. Not the rotation or the bullpen. But regardless of who owns the team, the FO will need to make some trades to re-balance the roster. They may need to initiate some position changes to re-balance the roster. They need a little more experience in their rotation and a little more "stuff" in their bullpen. They need a little more speed in the lineup but also less strikeouts and more bat to ball contact.- 85 replies
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- carlos santana
- donovan solano
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Either Iglesias or Pillar would add some speed and defense. I'm not interested in Hampson at all. He couldn't even hit in Colorado. But I appreciate Matthew Taylor suggesting the other two. One other possible gamble to take would be to trade Kirilloff to the Angels for Jo Adell. They probably don't need Kirilloff at 1B since they have Nolan Schanuel at 1B. But corner OF and DH could be something the Angels would be interested in. Jo Adell could be a Shane Mack type of gamble that could pay off for the Twins. Mack was a much better hitter when the Twins initially picked him up than Adell is now. But the defense and baserunning Adell would provide is an acceptable comp to Mack.
- 40 replies
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- garrett hampson
- kevin pillar
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Good points bean. In a "normal" world of baseball ownership, the Twins would look at the situation the Red Sox were in and immediately make a solid offer to someone like Tyler O'Neill. O'Neill would become the instant starter in LF providing power and speed to the lineup. In a pinch, O'Neill could play CF. He did with the Cardinals, but there was no need for him to do that with the Red Sox with Duran, Ceddane Rafaela and Abreu available.
- 32 replies
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- max kepler
- trevor larnach
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The Twins Have a First Base Problem
TopGunn#22 replied to Greggory Masterson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
bean, glad you clarified why Lewis was looking like a 45 year old. I'm 66, just retired and finally, after a 20 year absence returned to playing slow pitch softball after having played fast pitch until I was 46 years old. I strained a hip abductor and it's been SO SLOW to heal. I makes it very painful to run. You CAN run, you just can't run very fast because the abductor just won't let you. I stretch it 2 times a day, but I've been told I just need to rest it. The plan is to do no running for October, November, December (just take batting practice those months) and then in January see how it feels. I didn't realize that a hip abductor was part of the laundry list of injuries Lewis was suffering from. I now have newfound respect for what he was battling through. They say it's the biggest muscle in the body and a strain is a BEAST to deal with. There are myriad possibilities of what the Twins can do this off season. Trades, FA acquisitions, promoting some guys, cutting or releasing others. A lot of this won't matter if the Twins don't have the Royce Lewis of 2023 or at least the one that was playing at an All Star level before the injuries started piling up. We are just a different team when Lewis is hitting cleanup and driving in runs. Without him, or if he's severely limited like he was down the stretch, we're just not as good as Cleveland, Kansas City or Detroit. We need "Our Guy" back and healthy.- 85 replies
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- carlos santana
- donovan solano
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The Red Sox need SP. The Twins could use a young (25 y/o) inexpensive OF with speed, Gold Glove consideration and some pop (.781 OPS). How about SWR for Wilyer Abreu?? The only negative to Abreu is that he bats LH. So the Twins would still need to find a RH complement. But Abreu is a finalist for a Gold Glove and can play all 3 OF positions. The Twins have 3 young pitchers who got a taste of the major leagues this past season in Festa, SWR and Matthews. Having all three in the rotation is sub optimal when there are some big holes to fill at specific positions. I would advocate it's time to sell high on a trade. Better yet, why not shoot higher and offer SWR and Miranda for Tristin Casas. Casas was pretty good as a rookie in 2023 but slumped some due to nagging injuries in 2024. Miranda could play 1B or even 3B for the Red Sox if they traded us Casas and decided to move Rafael Devers to 1B. Miranda could be a good bat in Fenway Park. The Twins get a 24 year old, LH power hitter to be there 1B for the next 10 years. I'm not sure if a deal like this is even reasonable on BBTV (I refuse to pay for it). Maybe someone could check on this proposal to see if it has any merit, but I do think the Twins need to pick one of those young SP's and leverage them in a trade.
- 32 replies
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- max kepler
- trevor larnach
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The Twins Have a First Base Problem
TopGunn#22 replied to Greggory Masterson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The thought of moving Lewis to 1B fulltime has crossed my mind as well. On one hand, the idea of moving a guy like Lewis to 1B just slaps me in the face. This is a guy who we drafted to be a SS with an athletic profile of being one of the fastest guys in our organization with a cannon for an arm that, if SS didn't work out, was a can't miss CF prospect. Fast forward a couple of years and Lewis can't run and he can't throw. He's always had "durability" issues throughout his time in the Twins organization, but for a guy in his mid 20's he seemed like he was in his mid 40's last year. He couldn't throw. He was instructed not to run hard on any ground balls he hit in the infield so he just jogged to first base, often times not even appearing in the TV picture as the first baseman caught the ball. Tom Kelly had to be just grinding his teeth. But last season aside, the Royce Lewis Twins fans saw in 2023 and in the playoffs made him seem like the Twins version of Derek Jeter...with more power !! Clutch hit after clutch hit, Lewis was electric !! THAT'S the Royce Lewis I want to see. THAT'S the Royce Lewis EVERY Twins fan wants to see !! If we have to move him to 1B to keep him healthy I'm all for it. If playing 1B means Lewis plays in 140 games per season with 550 AB's I'm all for it !! But why does it have to come down to that? Why does an ultra athletic 25 year old look like a 45 year old on the field for the Minnesota Twins? Didn't we hire a new trainer to figure all this stuff out??? Miranda and Kirilloff are the In-House candidates to play 1B for the Twins. Neither can stay healthy (and both are not even 30 years old yet). They could form an effective platoon but would they? Would we be better off trading Kirilloff to the Angels for Jo Adell?? Neither Kirilloff or Miranda inspire a lot of confidence for 2025. I agree, Falvey missed a golden opportunity to trade Julien for something significant when his value was at its highest. The Twins should have determined that with Correa entrenched at SS, Lewis at 3B and Brooks Lee deemed the better prospect than Julien by far, a trade of Julien would be inevitable. They should have traded him at his peak. Now his value has cratered. I'm not sure what they could get for him now. I've said in another thread that Carlos Santana should not be in the mix at all for 1B in 2025. Take the "win" you got in 2024 at his age 38 season. Do NOT gamble that he can come close to doing what he did in 2024 for his age 39 season in 2025.- 85 replies
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- carlos santana
- donovan solano
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I'm on the side of those who think we currently have enough guys to field a pretty good bullpen in 2025. The "spine" (as someone referred to it) of Duran, Jax, Sands and Alcala is good. Guys who have flashed talent but have health issues are Stewart and Topa. Two LHP that I still like are Funderburk and Moran but they have to get healthy. In particular, I think Funderburk was battling through health issues ALL season. Varland is a Wildcard. He could be PERFECT as that 2-inning guy. I think he's cooked as a SP but has a chance to be a solid guy in a bullpen ala Trevor May. Nowlin and Prielipp are interesting possibilities as the season unfolds. If we were a baseball team operating with a reasonable salary structure I would advocate signing ONE impactful LH bullpen arm. Not that he's the guy, but as an example, an A.J. Puk type of arm. Alas, we have bigger issues than getting an A.J. Puk type of arm. First Base has more questions than answers. 39 year old Carlos Santana is not one of them. Take the "win" for 2024 in his age 38 season. Don't make the mistake of giving him an age 39 season. We need a 1B for the future, not just one more season. I would go into 2025 with Kirilloff, Miranda and Julien battling to win the position. He who HITS and stays healthy is the winner. We really need to acquire a RH hitting OF as Buxton insurance and to possibly supplant Larnach as the fulltime LF. I'm not sure who that guy would be at this time (a Tyler O'Neill type of guy) but we do need to "balance" the roster. It's hard to know what types of moves/trades the Twins will consider with the ownership question hanging in the air. How quickly that question is resolved will give us better insight into what would be considered, but even if the Pohlad's still own the Twins for much or all of the 2025 season, some guys we wouldn't expect should at least be considered as trade bait.
- 28 replies
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- jaylen nowlin
- connor prielipp
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There is no doubt that missing Kepler in RF will be some kind of downgrade on defense. But Max didn't even have 400 plate appearances last season. That's barely above playing in 60% of the teams games. Buxton is very similar. When he's out there, the defense is elite. But last year's 100 games played still represents 62.5% of the season. It seems the Twins have been missing Buxton & Kepler defense for more than half their games since 2021. And this is why guys like Buxton and Kepler have been missing from any Gold Glove talk for several seasons. You have to be on the field more than 62% of the time to merit consideration. I'm all for Kiersey finally getting a real shot at #4 outfielder. He can play all three positions, he gives you excellent speed and he's got a little pop. If he can hit hit just enough, he should have a roster spot. But he's a LH hitter, and when your projected corner OF are both LH hitters that is an unbalanced roster. They kind of need a Rob Refsnyder kind of guy. Capable OF who hits LHP. Refsnyder is kind of light on power but he's competent. With Emmanuel Rodriguez looking like an All Star break callup and Walker Jenkins on the fast track, I could see a trade of Larnach that brings back an everyday type of RH hitting LF, kind of like Tyler O'Neill did for the Red Sox. With the defense that a Joe Adell brings (Gold Glove consideration) if he could just hit a little he wouldn't be a bad guy to take a flyer on. He wouldn't cost much.
- 32 replies
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- max kepler
- trevor larnach
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If a player like Jarren Duran was the price for Bailey Ober I think I'd pull the trigger on that. Duran is a legit full-time CF who could allow the Twins to either keep or move on from Byron Buxton. There is no doubt, the Red Sox need pitching. But Duran just put up an 8.7 WAR season at age 28. He played 160 of the 162 games. He's the anti-Buxton. Ober is a good pitcher, but I'd trade him in a heartbeat for Duran. However, I'd first approach Boston about a possible SWR trade for either Ceddane Rafaela, who is a good CF. SS and 2B as well as a RH hitter (24 years old) with some pop and speed...OR, possibly Wilyer Abreu (25 years old) who is a Gold Glove Candidate for RF and is also a good speed/power kind of hitter. Rafaela would give the Twins tremendous flexibility in the IF and OF along with Castro. We might actually have two guys capable of stealing 25-35 bases. Abreu had an OPS of .781. Rafaela was only .664. Each are free swingers who need to take more walks, especially Rafaela. But they are excellent defensive players, with speed and emerging power. Duran is the more expensive piece but would be worth the price of Ober as an everyday player. But if you were reluctant to give up Ober, trading SWR for either of these guys would not be a bad move. Maybe you expand the deal to include one of Boston's catchers (Wong or Jansen) and include someone like Vasquez for a reunion with the Red Sox. Vasquez had a nice run with the Red Sox and his $10 million dollar salary wouldn't be as big a deal for Boston.
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Fred, that's why Buxton should be heavily considered for a trade. What good is a player if he's as fragile as blown glass and you will never see the fullest application of his 5-tool ability?? At least in a Twins uniform. I think Buxton would waive his no-trade clause if it was a trade to a perennial contender. The #1 team I could see him being traded to is the Dodgers. He's a Georgia native, but with Harris, I don't think the Braves would be interested. Maybe the Padres, maybe the Cubs, there would be interest from some of the deeper-pocketed teams. I don't see anything etched in stone for the Twins this off-season. There are endless questions about the potential sale of the team, new leadership and new philosophies.
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First off, I will say there is nothing "ridiculous" about this article. We may not agree with the premise of trading either Ryan or Ober (I'm in this camp) but this is what TD exists for during our off season...speculation about what moves the Twins might make. I'm sure there were zero Twins fans expecting a trade of Rod Carew following the 1978 season. He had won an MVP in 1977 and followed it up with another batting title in 1978. But it happened. I wouldn't be against the Twins exploring what Ryan and Ober could bring back. But I would make a different suggestion than dealing Ryan or Ober because I want the Twins to be contenders next season and they won't be without either of these guys. How about trading Simeon Woods-Richardson? I would certainly explore what I could get for him. I would replace him in the rotation by giving Griffin Jax a crack at joining Lopez, Ryan, Ober and the winner between Festa and Matthews. Could we get a solid catching prospect for SWR? Someone who could make Jeffers or Vasquez trade worthy? Could we get a serious RH bat for our outfield? Or a First Baseman? It's certainly something that should be considered. I would also disagree with Nick that Buxton should not be a trade candidate. He finally played 100 games for just the 2nd time in his career. But his power numbers were down and with Rocco's aversion to stealing bases his base stealing prowess is a non-factor with the Twins. Off loading a $15 million dollar contract for the Twins would be tremendous. To a team that needs a CF like the Dodgers it would be a drop in the bucket. This off season changes will be made. Some of them might be big changes. We should not rule anything out until the possibility has been explored. I wouldn't trade Ryan or Ober. I have shared some other ideas I would consider. But NOTHING should be off the table this off season.
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The Tigers, like the Royals are for real. Their futures depend on how the Tigers ensure that Tarik Skubal remains as the Ace of their rotation and how long the Royals can hang on to Bobby Witt Jr. The big market teams will certainly be sniffing around trying to pry these guys away. Bobby Witt is a bona fide Superstar. he's destined to win an MVP. Tarik Skubal will probably win the 2024 A.L. CY Young Award and he looks good enough to win a couple more. Both the Royals and the Tigers have other emerging talent and in the case of the Royals, a solid vet in All Star Salvador Perez. But Witt Jr. and Skubal are the centerpieces of future. The Guardians have a Superstar in Jose Ramirez and an All World closer in Emmanuel Clase. And they always have solid rotations and good bullpens. They have a pitching pipeline that is the envy of baseball. Were the Pohlad's arrogant enough to think they could just cut $30 million in payroll and cruise to a Division Championship? Or did they just not care if the Twins successfully defended their 2023 Division Championship? Neither answer is acceptable. At some point, we will have new Twins ownership. How will that affect the budget for 2025? As someone else mentioned, budgets are not laws that need to be legislatively repealed. They are a guideline of what a business is planning for the coming year. But for those of us who have had to plan a budget for a business, we all realize that it's written in paper with a pencil with an eraser at the ready.
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To me, Tonkin is the only obvious name that jumps out as a clear "no." I'm still willing to hang with Kirilloff for one more year. The rest of them, to me are obvious "YES's." I'd still look to deal a catcher, and if I could get Alcantara or Luzardo in a deal for Jeffers I'd consider it. I'd like to start with Vasquez with the Marlins and pick up a chunk of his salary, but I just don't think I could pry Alcantara or Luzardo away from them for anything less than Jeffers and probably Julien. If that's the case I'd ride with Vasquez for the final year of his deal and remake our catching anew in 2026. It might seem foolish to even consider trading Jeffers considering that there are still big questions with a number of our catching prospects in the minor leagues, but I think the Twins should make some discreet inquires and see what kind of deals are available. I always bring up Alcantara and Luzardo because the Marlins have absolutely no catching talent at the major league or minor league level and they have some young pitching that could replace an Alcantara or Luzardo. They have been rumored to be interested in either Jeffers or Vasquez. The rest of the Rule 5 names just don't move the needle for me. I'd be open to letting them all go.
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- kalai rosario
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I'm not expecting the "new" owners (when a sale finally does happen) to spend a ton to sign 3 high profile free agents. But I will say this: As soon as there is new ownership there will be a honeymoon period. Fans will be overjoyed that we are finally done with the Pohlad family and will be excited about what the new ownership group "might" do. In other words, the bar will be low for the first couple years for the new ownership group to regain the trust and enthusiasm of the fans. All this new ownership needs to do is push payroll back up to the $160 million dollar level by making a bold move or two to add talent to the roster. The Twins already have a plethora of guys who make league minimum or a little higher. Any new owner who takes a hard look at what Cleveland, Kansas City and Detroit are doing will realize that the Twins aren't too far behind them, but that a couple bold moves are needed to put the Twins in position to re-take the division crown. The Royals, Guardians and Tigers should force the Twins new ownership and quite possibly a new FO and manager (there is no requirement for new ownership to stick with someone else's "team") to step up to the plate and be ready to compete in what could be MLB's toughest division. New Twins ownership should welcome this competitive atmosphere.
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3 Big Questions for the 2025 Twins Bullpen
TopGunn#22 replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
DocBauer, I agree with everything you laid out. They have some LH guys with potential that could very well bounce back...Funderburk, Headrick, Moran. But I'd like to see one or two of them emerge as the solid #2 LH and find someone (who that is, neither you are I know at this point) to be the primary LHP for the bullpen. I must add that the idea of Jax getting a chance to be part of the rotation intrigues me. The only reason that would keep me from giving him a chance was if they were able to land a SP on a very team friendly contract that could be good enough to slot in at #3. There aren't many guys who would fit that profile. But as bad as the bullpen was at times this year, I think it has a chance to be pretty good next season if they aren't decimated by injuries and some guys bounce back.- 28 replies
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- louis varland
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3 Big Questions for the 2025 Twins Bullpen
TopGunn#22 replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I agree with bean. I have been one of the biggest hopeful (hopeless??) believers in Matt Canterino. He's kind of been my "Holy Grail." I keep waiting and searching for him to finally do something and it never materializes. I'm finally at the point where I'm ready to move on. As precious as 40-man roster spots are, I just can't see the Twins going into 2025 with Canterino on the 40-man or maybe even anywhere in our minor league system.- 28 replies
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- louis varland
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3 Big Questions for the 2025 Twins Bullpen
TopGunn#22 replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
For a guy that can throw it 104 mph, I'm not concerned that Duran "lost 1 mph of fastball velo." The Twins have the talent available for a pretty good bullpen, but Rocco needs to have clearly defined roles and I just don't think he's capable of that. In the last week of the season, the Twins TV broadcast team put up a graphic that showed how Duran had pitched in "save" and "non-save" situations. His numbers were VERY GOOD while closing and VERY BAD when pitching in a non-save situation. Bringing Duran in for the 7th inning, in a close game, because it's a "high leverage:" situation is not the right way to use him. The Guardians don't bring Clase in for the 7th. No team with a top notch closer does this. The Twins need a manager who will define specific roles for each pitcher and execute this properly. Duran, Jax, Sands, Alcala, Varland, Topa, Stewart. That's the foundation for a pretty good BP. Stewart is a Wildcard because his history shows he will be good when you have him, but he's rarely available. Funderburk and Moran could be 2 LHP that are capable of a bounce back. But even with the foundation for a good bullpen I think the Twins need to go out and get TWO solid arms for the BP. One RH and one LH. I say TWO because I want to give Jax a shot at the rotation. I think he could very well be a Reynaldo Lopez/Seth Lugo type of guy. If he's able to slot in as the #3 SP, that allows the Twins to take the best of Festa, SWR and Matthews for the #5 spot and depth. I just don't like putting too many eggs in the basket of 2nd year pitchers, each of whom could be on a seasonal innings limit. If it doesn't work out (but I think it WILL) you still have a guy who is among the BEST 8th inning guys in baseball. One of the 2 RP's that the Twins would sign would need to be of a talent level that could cover the 8th inning. Stewart has shown he can handle the 8th when he's healthy. Varland has the potential, but I prefer guys like him and Alcala as 7th inning guys. I wouldn't trade Topa when keeping him gives us another viable option under contract. So the question to me is "who are some of the guys the Twins could consider adding to the talent we already have in our BP?" The last thing I would like to point out is that I believe the Twins and Duran need to throw his fastball more. It seemed he would get ahead of guys 0-2 or 1-2 and then instead of throwing some high heat, he would try a breaking pitch and give up a hit. He needs better command of his fastball, whether that's a 4-seamer or a cutter. Better command helps every pitcher. Duran needs the confidence to know he can hit his spot. He seemed unsure or incapable at times this last season.- 28 replies
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- louis varland
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As a guy who grew up with Calvin Griffith as the owner and Howard Fox as the GM, a duo who invented the word "penurious" and then with the Pohlad's, another family who took the word "penurious" to a new level and a front office hack like Dave St. Peter, I am THRILLED at the news they will be selling the team. No, I'm not expecting Steve Cohen level payrolls. Absolutely NOT. I will give the Pohlad's credit for OK'ing the FA signing of Jack Morris prior to the 1991 season. Jack and the Twins gave us possibly the greatest season in Twins history, going from "worst to first" and beating the Braves in an all time great World Series. And then in true Pohlad form, after 1991, they refused to pay Jack Morris a fair salary for what he had helped the Twins accomplish and Morris instead signed with Toronto, the team we had beaten the previous season to go to the World Series. And what did Jack Morris do? He helped lead the Blue Jays to their first World Series triumph. In a nutshell, THAT was the Pohlad family. We as Twins fans have suffered under two family ownerships that rarely ever made a bold move to "go for it" at the trade deadline. Guys like Jack Morris, Chilli Davis, Shane Mack, or even a Carlos Correa were all off season moves. This last season's trade deadline was frustrating, but no more frustrating than the 2000's when we had two MVP's (Mauer & Morneau) a multiple CY Young Winner (Johan Santana) and the best closer in Twins history, (future Hall of Famer Joe Nathan) and not one of us can name any kind of significant trade deadline acquisition that made a difference. A decade of potential WASTED. It will be interesting to see who materializes as potential buyers. I wonder if A-Rod and Lorre would rather own a baseball team?? We have been sold this "small market" drivel for so long some of us actually believe it. The Twin Cities is TV market #15 in the nation. That's firmly middle of the pack in the professional sports world. The inability of the Pohlad family to ever actually leverage this is on them. They are bankers. They have absolutely no media savvy and it showed in their inability to leverage their TV market size and their lack of ever having an effective marketing strategy. You look at this Twins roster and how many league minimum contracts we have or extremely affordable contracts for pitchers like Ryan and Ober and you realize there is no way they can't be more efficient. This front office made the blunders of signing Vasquez to a 3-year $30 million dollar contract. Who signed off on that??? They calculated that Kyle Farmer was a "good value" at $6 million dollars per year. They overpaid Caleb Theilbar for 2 consecutive seasons as the most expensive arm in our bullpen. Whenever the new ownership group takes over there are going to be HUGE changes for the Twins. There will certainly be some mistakes made, but expect this to be Rocco's final season as Twins manager. Expect to see Falvey let go in addition to Dave St. Peter and a host of others. The new ownership group will want their own people in place. What will be key with the new ownership group, more than how much they decide to spend on payroll, will be who they choose to replace the people listed above. What infusion of bright, young baseball minds currently laboring for other franchises can they bring in to re-set the course of this Twins franchise. I'm hoping for a manager who not only utilizes analytics but who also has some baseball instincts. Who manages a more aggressive, exciting brand of baseball. Something resembling how the Brewers play the game, but with a payroll that should put our franchise several rungs above Milwaukee. I'm looking for a scouting and drafting department that starts to add more athleticism than we have previously. And I'm looking to a team that will continue to churn out home grown pitching with the hopes they can avoid the Matt Canterino "school of injuries." We are a team with some serious issues but one that is not bereft of talent and potential. I think the Pohlad's realized that they have so antagonized their fan base that they realized they weren't willing to spend the necessary payroll to correct the many bad trades and puzzling free agent acquisitions (Vasquez, Farmer, Gallo, Shoemaker, Happ etc...) to begin to regain that trust. We are the verge of a new era for Twins baseball. I don't expect a quick sale, but I also don't expect something as long, drawn out and convoluted as the Timberwolves situation. The new ownership could prove to be worse. But after having endured Calvin Griffith and the Pohlad family, I'll gladly take my chances with who that might be.
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I'm not sure what the "consensus" on TD would be for giving Jax a chance to break into the rotation but I'm all for it. I think Jax has earned the opportunity. SP's always have more value than RP's and after what Lopez and Lugo accomplished this season I'd love to see Jax bring 5-6 innings of his "stuff" and his bulldog mentality to our rotation. This necessitates seeing a permanent transition of Louie Varland to a bullpen role. I'd still look to deal one of our catchers and maybe Julien to Miami for a return of Alcantara or Luzardo and STILL put Jax in the rotation. It's easier, budget wise, to add BP arms than top end rotation arms and I think the Twins can't just run it back in 2025 and expect a better result. I like the idea of Festa, Matthews and even SWR getting run as bullpen guys and if injuries occur, stretching them out to fill holes in the rotation. Many people forget that Johan Santana actually started out as a BP guy before he was so good we HAD to put him in the rotation. A rotation of (Alcantara or Luzardo), Lopez, Ryan, Jax and Ober has no weak link. A return to form of Duran and Varland blossoming in a BP role along with Acala, Stewart, Sands, and a return to form by Funderburk would allow the Twins to add one or two FA RP's who could be impactful. Offensively the hope is that in firing all 3 of our hitting coaches the Twins hitting philosophy will finally evolve into better "situational" hitting and less HR or strikeout. The Twins should build the pitching staff as I've laid out but they will have to take some risks with the lineup. They may need to go with a Miranda/Kirilloff platoon at 1B. They may have to ask more of Lewis and Lee than originally planned. There should be no doubt that Castro is re-signed at that $6.2 million dollar figure. He's just waaay too valuable in the role he plays. If the Twins felt is was necessary to retain Farmer at roughly the same salary, then it's a no-brainer to retain Castro. And now with the news that the Pohlad family is open to selling the team breaking there could/should be increased optimism that the Pohlad's may spend a little more on player salaries to insure that they are selling their asset at its highest value. I think the Pohlad family finally realized they have lost the fan base and they messed up SO bad that it would take several YEARS to build any trust or support back up. True to the bankers they are, they are going to cash their original $44 million dollar investment in for the $1.5 to $2 BILLION the team is worth now. We should expect nothing else from the Pohlad's. Let's hope whoever the new owners are, whenever the sale happens, will look at the Twins as a sports franchise and be more motivated by putting a competitive team on the field than what the net profitability of the ballclub is.
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- kevin alcantara
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So bean has answered the question of where Twins catchers rank and they are middle of the pack and then downright horrible at throwing out base stealers (which is probably more on our pitchers ability to hold runners than on their throwing ability). I don't think Jeffers is any better than mediocre. I'd trade him to Miami for Sandy Alcantara or Jesus Luzardo. Then I'd deal Buxton to the Dodgers for Dalton Rushing. Rushing is blocked by All Star Will Smith. The Dodgers even had Rushing playing some outfield to see if they could get his bat up to the big leagues but they never pulled the trigger. The Dodgers need a CF. When was the last time you couldn't name who was playing CF for the Dodgers. They have a gaping hole there. Buxton's $15 million dollar contract would be a drop in a bucket to them. The Dodgers currently have 2 other highly rated minor league catchers in addition to Rushing so they would be dealing from a position of surplus. You'd add $10 million for Alcantara but subtract $15 million for Buxton and nearly $5 million for Jeffers. You'd get a highly rated young catcher and finish out the final season of Vasquez. If Rushing plays well in 2025 the Twins could always look to deal Vasquez at the trade deadline. You'd also create some space to add around the fringes, to the bullpen and a RH outfield bat.

