TopGunn#22

I think it's very possible you see some pitching get traded this off season. Whether it's a BIG piece like Ryan or Lopez or a younger, yet still valuable piece like Zebby, SWR or Festa. The guy I would keep an eye on is Ober. If he can string some nice starts together from now until the end of the season, he will build a lot of his value back. He's the in-between guy. Not our #1 or #2, not our #4 or #5, but a solid #3. According to BBTV, at the beginning of this season, Ober's value was 54.7. It fell to around 45.4 and I imagine it has fallen further (help me out here Doc. Gast). If Ober is able to build his value back to a level where he's worth a Jaren Duran type position player that's the kind of value the Twins are looking for to upgrade their lineup. They could easily replace Ober with Taj Bradley or Mick Abel, or one of Festa, Matthews or SWR.

So let's review things as they set up for the 2026 season: We have Ryan, Lopez and Ober. We also have Taj Bradley and Mick Abel. We ALSO have Festa, Matthews and SWR. That's eight possible SP's. That's tremendous depth, and we know injuries happen, but we can only deploy 5 at a time unless some of them are deployed as relief pitchers of some sort...long relief, set up man or closer. At least long relief maintains an innings workload that is close to a SP. We also have some other arms at various levels in the minors who have either fallen off this year, maintained their status or improved their stock. Some of these arms "could" pitch for the Twins in some capacity in 2026, some are a few years away. Think of Marco Raya and Dasan Hill as a couple of candidates. With Jax, we had a closer in waiting, but we traded him away for a 24 year old SP who has been more SWR than Joe Ryan in his major league performance so far, but has the "potential" to be MORE than SWR has shown to this point. I was fine with all the moves, even Correa, until the Jax and Varland trades. Jax is somewhat understandable given the acquisition of Bradley. The trade that really kind of crushed any hope for next year was Varland. Varland was also a closer in waiting. He had taken so well to the role of high leverage, late inning reliever. And yet, nonsensically, Falvey traded him away, essentially for Alan Roden, a LH hitting OF. We already HAD a full cupboard of LH hitting OF. Once Varland went out the door, we had a paucity of CLOSERS (unless Michael Tonkin is fine with you). Ty France for Kendry Rojas would have been fine with me. But I don't think it was necessary to put Varland together with France to get Roden and Rojas. In other words, moving Varland just to off load France wasn't needed. I have read many opinions by baseball commentators and insiders who are STILL trying to figure out what the plan was (if there ever WAS a plan other than cutting as much salary as possible) of the Twins ownership and FO. Varland was eminently affordable for several years. Jax may have gotten expensive, but not Varland. Ask a Twins fan today if they would feel a whole lot better about the trade deadline if Jax and/or especially Varland had been retained. I'll bet over 90% would feel better with at least Varland still with the Twins.

I like others agree that Twins ownership & leadership really DIDN'T pick a lane. Some of what they did yesterday made sense. Some of it made no sense at all. I've often complained that I felt the Twins Front Office NEVER had a plan when it came to the off season. They were exclusively "reactive" to the moves of other teams, often letting talent that would have been a good fit with their team slip away until there was nothing to do but dumpster dive. I was on board with many of the early moves, but share the sentiment that the returns were consistently LESS than what I expected for players we had that teams (supposedly) desperately wanted. Specifically, Duran, Castro, Coulombe and Bader. The trades of Jax and Varland were shocking to me. At that point, I felt we had moved enough "dead wood" but still had the rotation strength, bullpen (anchored by Jax and Varland) and with Keaschall, E-Rod, Jenkins, Culpepper and Gonzalez possibly arriving in the future, a lineup with at least some potential. The rotation was relatively intact and Lopez and Ober were soon returning. We've now traded 44% of our starting lineup, none of whom I'm sorry to see go (Correa, Castro, Bader, France). These guys were either FA at the end of the season or were major disappointments (Correa). But aside from about $20-$25 million in payroll flexibility for 2026 I'm not sure how much firepower we added to the lineup with Rodon and Outman. If Rodon and Outman were specific targets, why wasn't Larnach or Wallner included in a trade to bring back something we need. We don't really need MORE LH hitting OF's. That's NOT having a plan. We've traded 50% of our bullpen. All of them key pieces. The only BP arm we've retained that has shown any talent is Cole Sands. Was Taj Bradley for Jax a smart trade? Bradley is just 24 but he's practically a clone of SWR, who I think is better suited to be a long reliver. Couldn't we have gotten Shane Baz instead for a heavily desired piece like Jax? I know bullpens are very unpredictable and fungible. But what we had and what we have left now is utter decimation. That's not a plan. It's unforgiveable. This was not picking a lane. This reeks of yet another instance in which Falvey had a lot of conversations with people but made panicked, hurried and reactive decisions as the trade deadline came to a close. This appeared to me to be a guy who doesn't think he will have a job once the new ownership takes over. Almost nothing Falvey did would improve the team now or in 2026. Were the players he acquired particular targets of his? Or were they who he grudgingly accepted as other GM's wore him down. Do any of us think, after seeing what we got back in return for what we purged, that Falvey was the one in control of negotiations? In the end, we have an ownership family who is detested by the fan base. A GM who never really showed me he had a plan or even a short term & long term strategy or who was too restrained by miserly ownership to ever do what needed to be done. And a manager who was too attached to "analytics" and as a result, didn't seem to have the innate sense to "manage" a baseball game. It was a team that was poorly constructed season after season and was reactive, not proactive. How else do you explain acquiring a couple more LH hitting OF when you already have an overabundance of LH hitting OF on the major league roster and as top prospects soon to debut in the major leagues? The Vikings and Gopher football seasons can't come fast enough. In the end, we saw an ownership group, GM and manager who just seemed to throw their hands up and say "Enough ! We're outta here!

I cannot disagree gentleman. We had done O.K. up to Correa and while we're waiting for details like who we got and how much we still have to pay for Carlos, I was on board with the move. Trading Jax (even if it was for Taj Bradley) and Varland (not really impressed with who we got from the Blue Jays especially with Varland looking like he'd found his footing as a solid back end BP piece) I'm wondering why Falvey didn't quit while he was ahead. It's like he's burning the house down and running out the back door down a dark alley.

Bradley was a good swap for Jax. SP. Young. Has shown flashes of being pretty darn good. Who the heck will be suiting up for the Twins on Friday ????

OMG !! Falvey is burning the house down on his way out of town. Jax just traded to Tampa Bay !!!

Javier and Caratini would be interesting if the Twins are actually taking salary back. It remains to be seen how much the Twins had to eat, but reports are that it is no where near the $50 million the Astros wanted. The Pohlad's won't reinvest that salary, but you can bet new ownership and new leadership certainly will. The sooner a sale is approved and announced...THE BETTER. The Twins just weren't getting what they paid for with Carlos. Hopefully reinvestment will work out better. I'm glad the Twins realized they needed to SELL and sell BIG. Just don't trade Joe Ryan. You're bringing in plenty of new faces already. KEEP RYAN.

I would have liked to see just a little bit more from the Phillies. Maybe we could have/should have included a player like Castro or a minor leaguer to entice the Phillies to include a CF prospect like Crawford. I like the players we got back. It just seems like Falvey left some meat on the bone...didn't quite take FULL advantage of Duran's value, especially with the Clase situation taking him out of the mix. I would like to see the Twins bring Mick Abel up to the Major League level NOW !! Why putz around with Pierson Ohl and Noah Davis etc...when you could be using Abel ?? That they're sending Abel to St. Paul initially is just baffling to me and underscores my desire to see a completely new FO and on field staff in 2026.

The Correa situation is interesting, but the only way I agree to a trade is if the Astros take on ALL of his salary. I'd take the paltry prospect return to realize the financial freedom it would give me as a new owner allowing my new FO to determine how they would like to utilize the additional $37 million dollar annual payroll flexibility. An extension for Ryan? Two FA's signed for $18 to $20 million per year? Yandy Diaz at 1B and an upgraded catcher or RH hitting OF ?? But this is only if Houston takes on ALL the remaining salary. What good is it to dump Correa's salary if you're not dumping ALL of it?? This envisions an infield of Lewis at 3B, Lee at SS and Keaschall at 2B. I don't think Julien has any future with the Twins, but if it were up to me for the rest of the season, I'd give France his release and stick Julien at 1B to give him ONE LAST CHANCE to either win the position or at least build SOME value back to be included in an off season trade. Otherwise, Cody Clemens is the 1B the rest of the way. If Clemens plays some 2B, Keaschall can log some time in LF as the RH complement to Larnach, Kiersey or E-Rod. Bader and Castro MUST be traded. I agree with the idea of bringing guys like Austin Martin and E-Rod up to give them 2 months of playing time at the MLB level. I'd also consider bringing up Prielipp and Raya for bullpen cameos if I got what I wanted in a trade involving Coulombe and/or Stewart. I wouldn't necessarily call it "tanking." More like seeing what some of those guys could do at the major league level while I further assess what we HAVE and what we NEED.

I think we got a little less than we could have. I was kind of hoping for a trade with the Dodgers that would've brought us Dalton Rushing but that was not to be. And maybe my hopes of leveraging Duran (especially after Clase became "unavailable") into a significant overpay by the Dodgers or Phillies were totally misguided. It wouldn't be the first time. Using BBTV's as a guide for value in a general sense, the Twins ended up with Abel (5.1) and Tait (17.9) for a total value of 23.0. Duran was valued at 25.7. It just seems very compelling that the Twins should have gotten at least one more player with at least lottery ticket value. Someone like a Dustin May or Bobby Miller type of throw in. An arm with upside but flaws that would need to be fixed. But with Duran's value at 25.7 and, let's add on 5 points of value for urgency and immediate benefit to the acquiring team (Dodgers or Phillies) the idea of actually getting Painter (49.4 value) or Rushing (43.4 value) was probably never going to happen. There may have been a low level bidding war. But certainly not to the point where either the Phillies (Painter) or Dodgers (Rushing) ever flinched at that level of prospect. Where I think Falvey messed up was in not including a Major league player (Castro or Bader) or a minor league player of some value to the Phillies (basically expanding the trade a bit) to get a 3rd prospect of value like Crawford. It didn't have to be JUST a Duran swap. Julien, Miranda, take your pick, could have been included to get a player with a skill set that the roster currently lacks. The Twins "appeared" to have had the proverbial "hammer in their hands" to make a better deal. I like who we got back. I'm not going to be too judgmental until I've had a few opportunities to see Mick Abel pitch and I've read some minor league reports about which level Tait ended up at and how he's doing.

I've been giving this a lot of thought as we approach the deadline and especially with the Clase situation the Twins should almost feel compelled to trade one of them since they now corner the market. Whether guys like Stewart or Coulombe are also dealt remains to be seen, but the fact is, the Twins could do quite well auctioning off 3 relief pitchers in the next 24 hours. And as I've considered this I have to say that I've consistently been in favor of trading Duran and keeping Jax. Duran has the "closer" stats and is younger, which should make the haul for trading him better than Jax. However, Jax has been the better pitcher in my opinion. Jax's 2025 season was tremendous and his underlying, more analytical stats show he's been just as good, if not better than Duran THIS season. There is no denying the strikeout rate of Griffin Jax. His fastball isn't as good as Duran's, but it's awfully good. Jax's sweeper/slider is killer. I have no doubt that Jax could be an All Star closer if the Twins put him in that role. Add Varland to the mix and the Twins can absolutely afford to trade Duran for a King's Ransom and possibly even improve the team for the rest of THIS season, and certainly for 2026 and beyond.

I still wonder if the the All Star Game Homerun Derby might have contributed to this. The good news: It doesn't sound serious. I'm all for erring on the side of caution here. Bader & Castro will play in today's game (Wednesday) and then be traded...somewhere. That leaves Kiersey for the time being as the guy in CF with a small possibility the Twins promote Emmanuel Rodriguez to play some OF for the time it takes Buxton to get back. Who knows, maybe the Twins get back a CF ready to play some games who has more of a track record (translate that "better health) than E-Rod.

Good points jmlease1. I think what you and I are on the same page about is that we'd like to see a different approach, philosophy, strategy and outcome for the Twins. You're right. It comes down to winning games. When you win, fans can turn a blind eye to a LOT of things. I loved the Bomba Squad year of 2019. But those days appear to be gone. Even with Judge setting records and Juan Sosa/Giancarlo Stanton, the Yankees were nowhere near what they did in 2019 last year. But I'm ready for some new blood. It took Rocco FOREVER to figure out the rules had changed to favor base stealers. I'm hoping the trades that need to be made (Castro, Bader, Coulombe) get made and I'd like to see what we could max out with a Duran or Jax trade (not both, just one). An infusion of new talent with new leadership in the future is needed. It's worked for the Vikings and the Timberwolves. Cha-Cha-Cha-CHANGES !!

I immediately liked this trade. After Seth's insightful write-up I like it even more. Paddack is a below average SP. Dobnak is never going to be a major league pitcher ever again. He's the epitome of "organizational depth" until he realizes his career lies elsewhere. The comp of Vasquez is interesting. Most of us see Vasquez hit in the present day and agree, "he's just an automatic out." But there was a time he was "acceptable" as a hitter. If the Twins end up with 4-5 years of Jimenez playing at an early career Vasquez level the grade for the Twins will be an "A." I don't see any grade for the Tigers being better than a "D." I could see Paddack moving to a long relief role (2-3 inning stints) and having some success. Paddack and SWR are both very similar in how they can sail through 3 innings or so and then suddenly, that second trip through the lineup....BAM !! There goes a 3-run HR in the 4th or 5th.

The idea that Twins fans want a team that "bunts more" is a straw man argument. To say Twins fans want a team that plays more like the Milwaukee Brewers is a much more honest argument. We want a team that can steal bases and take the extra base on a hit to the outfield. We'd like to see a team that makes more consistent contact, even if it costs us 15-20 HR's per season. We want a team that is at least CAPABLE of getting a bunt down late in games if the situation warrants it. i.e. having runners on first & second with nobody out and Vasquez at the plate is a no-brainer. The Twins play a very boring brand of baseball. They play a very frustrating brand of baseball defensively if the players aren't Buxton, Bader or Correa. They need more athleticism. For example, Brooks Lee may have gotten the game winning hit last night, but he's a remarkably "unathletic" SS. The Marek Houston #1 pick is more the kind of SS prospect I'm looking for. If Keaschall stakes his claim to 2B and Royce Lewis plays like he's capable at 3B does Brooks Lee become a glorified utility infielder by the time Houston is ready to push Correa to 3B and Lewis to 1B?? I'd love to know what Falvey's REAL thoughts are on that. Because with Culpepper and DeAndre in the pipeline and the expectations for Houston, he should be considering adding Brooks Lee to any deal to upgrade talent at a position of need. Lee will never be a full time MLB SS. Obviously, Falvey is going to be the primary person to decide how BIG or how small our moves at the deadline are. I liked how he started with a low impact trade of Paddack and Dobnak to the Tigers for a 19 year old C/1B who switch hits and appears to have a nice swing. The trade adds a player to our current prospects for C and 1B where our talent level is unacceptable. Plus...I think it weakens the Tigers!! They can HAVE Paddack and Randy!!

Guys like Castro, Bader, Coulombe HAVE to be traded. Get whatever you can for Paddack and certainly move Vasquez if you're making a deal that brings you a catcher. When it comes to controllable assets like Ryan, Duran and Jax I'd have to be blown away with a deal. You always trade when an asset is at it's highest. That is Joe Ryan. A trade of Ryan would take a LOT. I'm more in favor of building around him and signing him to an extension...BUT...some people on TD have raised a good point. Will the Twins new ownership pony up enough money to sign him to an extension? That is not a given. If not, trade him NOW. I'm going to operate under the assumption that new ownership WILL sign Ryan to an extension. He's part of a successful Twins future. However, Duran and Jax will never have higher values either. Relief pitchers, especially closer types have a particularly enhanced value at the deadline. One of them SHOULD be traded. I think you can probably get more for Duran than Jax but it depends on the team and the players coming back. When it comes to the new Twins ownership, FO and Manager, I think they will probably have a similar philosophy as the current regime regarding relief pitchers. They will pay for a SP but not a RP. This is why I see the Twins trading one of Duran or Jax and maximizing the return. The Twins aren't keeping and paying both. Especially with the emergence of Varland. The other Wildcard is Brock Stewart. When he's been healthy he's been very productive. But his health history worries me. I'd sell high on him as well. I'd get a few young arms up for a look in September (Prielipp, Raya) and in addition to the expiring contract guys, deal Duran to the Dodgers or Phillies and leverage Coulombe and Stewart as well. I'm hanging on to Joe Ryan. This is a tremendous opportunity to enhance the 40 man roster with some young talent that could transform the Twins into a solid contender and a much better constructed roster. We've focused primarily on pitchers. But Brooks Lee and Ryan Jeffers, Larnach or Wallner would be a couple guys I'd consider adding to a deal if I was getting something back I really liked.

This soreness is a result of competing in the HR Derby. Changing your swing to loft balls out of the stadium is never helpful. Byron was clearly tired out after competing. It just took a little while to manifest itself.

It's not like I'm anxious to trade either Duran or Jax but as Cody illustrated, The Market Is Speaking !! I would trade Duran if the deal included Rushing and a little more. I'd rather keep Jax. He's more consistent and appears to be more durable. With Varland blossoming, the Twins have the ability to leverage a team strength to fill a big void...a young catcher with an impressive hit tool and improving defensive ability. We don't know what the new owners, new FO and coaching will bring, but the current regime has never paid bullpen arms. Duran is going to start getting expensive. The current regime will not pay him. It's time to leverage Duran for a nice return. The Dodgers are reeling. Let's take advantage of this opportunity. The deal starts with Rushing. The Twins include Vasquez as we would have Rushing coming back. What else could the Twins get?? Let's find out.

It would start with Rushing but the Twins should be getting Rushing and then some. The Dodgers want to repeat. They need a stud at the end of their BP. Cleveland will NOT be trading Clase. The only other closer in Duran's league is Mason Miller and it's unclear if the A's would move him. Rushing secures the Twins "Catcher of the Future" and he WILL hit. What else do the Dodgers have? I would focus on players that can't help the Dodgers win now but that have the potential to be very good. The Dodgers are in a hyper "Win Now" mode, so maybe a pitcher sidelined all season like Gavin Stone (as opposed to Sheehan who can help them win now). Another pitcher I'd ask for as a throw in is Bobby Miller. He's 26 with a 98 mph fastball and was hit in the head by a Michael Busch line drive in spring training. He was a top prospect who's had some struggles recently (not to mention getting hit in the head with a line drive) but his arm and stuff are very intriguing. Rushing for immediate help (include Vasquez in the deal with Duran) and then a couple lottery picks in pitchers Gavin Stone and Bobby Miller. With all the arms the Dodgers have stockpiled, they might just include Stone and Miller.

I think Doc Bauer makes a great point about his base. It’s hard to be an effective hitter or player in general if you are unsure of your ability to perform due to lingering injury issues. He may never make it all the way back, but I sure hope he does. I’m hoping for a Paul Molitor type of career. I think Byron Buxton is a great comp. Although Buxton still has his tremendous speed. I would NOT give up on Lewis and hope an off season plan gets him on the right track.

It’s time to take off the rose colored glasses and admit that this team is going nowhere this season. Heck, we’ve had our clocks cleaned by the ROCKIES to open the second half. Trade Coulombe, Bader, Castro, Vasquez and Paddack for sure. Whether a Larnach, Wallner, Duran as well is a fair debate. But the guys who are short-timers are essential to move. I like the idea of targeting the positions that others have mentioned as well as the pitchers who have potential with a move to the BP. Let’s get some younger players up who would have a 2-month window to show us something. I’d also look to move France, Julien and Miranda. It’s time to turn the page on several players.

I was really surprised they didn't take a single catcher when they appear to really need some in their system. Noah Cardenas looks like he's got the defensive chops but needs work with his hitting. Hardly anyone else sticks out. Hot Take: I think the Twins are going to make a bid at the deadline to bring in their "Catcher of the Future." Whether it's a deal built around Jhoan Duran for Dalton Rushing or a Quero or Kyle Teel...there is SOMEBODY out there that I think the Twins have their eye on and who they think they have a strong feeling they'll get him. I've complained in the past about this Twins FO seemingly NOT having an off season plan. In this instance, I'm hoping they have a trade deadline plan.

I'd like to see a LOT of movement come the trade deadline. Bader, Castro, Coulombe, and Paddack FOR SURE. But I'd also be interested in moving one of Duran, Jax or Ryan...IF THE PRICE WAS RIGHT. The first 4 guys NEED to be dealt. There is no need to move any of Duran, Jax or Ryan unless the Twins are getting an overpay from the Dodgers, Phillies, Red Sox or Cubs. Those teams are all serious World Series contenders. If they want any of Duran, Jax or Ryan, they are going to have to win the bidding war. Names like Jarren Duran, Dalton Rushing and Andrew Painter only BEGIN the conversation. And it's not like the Twins should only expect crumbs for Castro, Bader or Coulombe. Paddack...maybe. But the other 3 will be hot commodities. The Twins FO has an opportunity to really refresh the talent on their roster with some talent going out they would be losing anyway and a couple guys (Ryan & Duran) who's value has never been higher. I don't have a lot of confidence in this FO but that is no excuse for not having a plan and taking advantage of the opportunity.

I like this pick. Good Size and the ability to fill out and add strength. The key with any pitcher is confidence, command and control. He's got the arm. Can the Twins develop the 3 "C's."

Nobody on this team is untouchable. Based on the season he's having, Byron Buxton is probably the only one who would qualify, and much of that is his incredibly team friendly contract. I'm not advocating the Twins trade Ryan. I like him, and he's pitching well this year. He might just finish this season with more IP and more K's, wins and an ERA better than he ever has. Still, his season high IP is only about 160. It really comes down to what you could get in return. If you're trading for prospects that are 2-4 years away, that's a tough pill to swallow. But if the Red Sox are willing to trade an All Star outfielder like Jarren Duran (and a little something more) then I'm willing to talk. The Red Sox have a LOT of good young outfielders right now and there is no way they can play them all. Especially with Yoshida set to "occupy" the DH spot. Duran is just the type of player the Twins desperately need. Bader has been a revelation in LF and CF, but he's going to be traded. Duran would step right in batting leadoff and playing LF and would be the insurance for Buxton in CF if he got hurt. Are the Pohlad's willing to sign Ryan to a 5 year extension? Would the new owners green light that? If there is ANY hesitation, and you can trade a SP who pitches 160 innings for an All Star OF like Jarren Duran as the key piece coming back...you have to heavily consider it. Duran is only available because the Red Sox have Anthony, Abreu and Rafaela, all under the age of 24 and are DYING for a SP. Ryan's value has never been higher. In 2026 the Twins would still have Lopez, Ober, Festa, Matthews, SWR, and maybe Raya. Maybe you sign a Kyle Gibson type (or the real McCoy...Gibson) to eat innings for you at a known level of mediocrity. But you've got Jarren Duran leading off and playing a solid LF. I'm not trying to trade Joe Ryan. But I'd like to know how serious some of the contending teams are for a SP with immense value. I'm not trying to trade Jhoan Duran either. But if the Dodgers would send us Dalton Rushing and a little more and I've still got Jax, Varland and Sands? I'd listen to that as well.