TopGunn#22
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Everything posted by TopGunn#22
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Signing Hoskins would be a major letdown because he doesn't move the needle at all. Yes, he would be a better option than Clemens, Julien, Miranda, Ty France and a 40 year old Carlos Santana, but being a better option than this listed dross is NOT a compliment. While more expensive, the best option for the Twins is Josh Naylor. The trouble with Naylor is that he's an awfully GOOD hitter. Other teams are sure to be interested. A trade for Yandy Diaz would be infinitely better than Hoskins. Diaz turns 35 next August but is a far better hitter than Hoskins. And the Rays just might be willing to trade him because 27 year old Jonathan Arranda is now their 1B and Diaz makes $12 million per year. I would pay Diaz $12 million. NOT Hoskins. Even getting 25 year old Tristan Casas as a throw in as part of a trade with the Red Sox is a far better option than a 33 year old, declining slugger like Hoskins. Casas is expected to be ready for opening day next season, but the Red Sox may not want to wait for him. Pete Alonso is on the FA market, his wife is from Boston, and can you imagine Alonso hitting in Fenway? Casas at least gives the Twins a guy with a FUTURE. As good as Diaz is, I can't see him playing more than a couple years with him turning 35 next August. Diaz and Hoskins are just part of the never ending band-aids this FO has rolled through 1B. Hoskins is certainly an option. But he's one of the worst options out there.
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I agree with tarheel. When you have a pitcher with the "stuff" that Zebby Matthews has, he shouldn't be getting hit at the rate he is. He needs to mix his pitches and change speeds more often. It's said he's got as many as 6 or 7 pitches. And with a fastball that averages 96/97 and hits 99 on occasion that's a good foundation to start with. Maybe Matthews needs to narrow his pitch selection to 4, dropping the 2 worst pitches he has. His fastball is a solid foundation. Focus on commanding it better, especially elevating it for strikeouts. You will get no argument from me that our defense is rather slow and unathletic. At least to begin the year, we can probably count on Lewis at 3B, Lee at SS and Keaschall at 2B. Buxton is solid in CF. Once some trades are made, I would expect our corner OF to look much better defensively in 2026 when Larnach is subtracted and Wallner, is either traded or playing DH on a full time basis. That still leaves the Twins lacking defensively at Catcher and 1B, so we will just have to see how the off season plays out. The formula has always been pretty simple for pitchers: Those that can command and effectively locate their pitches are successful. Those that consistently fall behind hitters, or make non competitive pitches at 0-2, 1-2, and 2-2 usually struggle. They are consistently...inconsistent. SWR really seemed to turn a corner in his last 3-4 starts. Matthews, Abel and Bradley all finished the season on a high note, giving Twins fans a glimpse of hope. It will also be very interesting to see once the Managerial hire is made, who this new Manager brings in as pitching coach and how he fills his staff. The right pitching coach could unlock the tremendous potential several of our young SP prospects possess.
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What Will Minnesota Twins Do with Matt Wallner?
TopGunn#22 replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Anyone who thinks there's been an overwhelming amount of "HATE" for Wallner should have read some of the posts regarding Kirk Cousins on Daily Norseman. Please, let's just stop with labeling anyone who would consider trading Wallner on TD a "HATER." It's over the top, and lazy. Wallner has decent value as evidenced by the 22.5 value assigned by BBTV. He has prodigious power...when he actually puts bat on ball. He's a poor fielding, lumbering RF with a cannon for an arm. He has strengths that could attract interest from any number of teams. He also has warts that could scare a lot of teams off as well. If the right trade was presented for the right player or players, I'd consider it. Wallner to the White Sox for Teel or Quero would fill a big void for the Twins behind the plate. But a major reason the Twins could consider trading him other than the potential return is who we have coming up from the minor leagues. We have depth there, with guys that play the same position as Wallner (and play it much better). They're younger and more athletic. Having Wallner exclusively DH might be a good plan. Rooker showed absolutely no capability of becoming the player he has. He was 27 when we traded him to the A's and he did very little to show he should have been kept. Wallner will be 29 this next season. How much do those 2 years factor in? Wallner could turn things around and become "Rooker Part II." But that's why he could bring a solid young catcher back or even a very intriguing young pitcher like Jared Jones (if he's healthy). We currently have a LOT of young pitchers with potential, so it's debatable if that's our biggest need. But if Jones were to regain his health, with the price of solid pitching in baseball today, that would be a big win for the Twins.- 101 replies
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- matt wallner
- trevor larnach
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Seeing the highlights on TD of this kid fielding is a real treat. The defensive wizardry is REAL. He looks to have all the tools...range, arm, agility. I just don't want to see the Twins mess with him like Austin Martin. Martin came out of Vandy as a great contact hitter, good base runner and able to work a walk. His power was deemed to be insufficient. I'm not sure if the Blue Jays tried to change his swing and approach, but there's no doubt the Twins did. It wasn't until Martin went back to what worked best to him that he became a viable major league prospect. Martin was never going to be a 15 HR guy. Houston, ironically, is also a Vandy product. He comes to the Twins as a Gold Glove caliber SS. His hit tool and profile is very similar to Martin. I say just let the kid be who he is. I'd have no problem if Houston was a 5-10 HR HR guy but hit .280 with an OBP of .360-.380, hit 30 doubles and stole 20 bases. THAT'S who I think and hope he is. I think Houston's FLOOR is that of Mark Belanger, the ancient Orioles SS. The Orioles had the lineup to make Belanger a comfortable #8 hitter, but those Oriole pitching staffs LOVED having him backing them up. Culpepper is an excellent prospect with exciting potential. But if the Twins somehow WIN the draft lottery and we add Roch Cholowsky, it's possible that Culpepper becomes the 3rd best fielding SS the Twins would have in their system. In that scenario...let the best man win !! That would be quite an exciting future IF with Roch at 3B, Houston at SS and Culpepper at 2B. Add the defense that Jenkins and E-Rod could be providing in the OF (with an aging Buxton in LF) and the Twins could transform from a defense of DH-types to something truly exciting. Even if we don't end up with Roch, having a defensive wiz like Houston and a solid prospect like Culpepper is reason enough to be excited for the future.
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Arbitrary Thoughts: Bailey Ober
TopGunn#22 replied to Sherry Cerny's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
At some point the Twins need to give Bradley, Matthews and Abel the innings needed to turn the corner to becoming a solid MLB pitcher. Frank Viola needed it, Bert Blyleven needed it, Dave Boswell needed it. As DJL44 said quite succinctly, "their time in AAA is over." Bailey Ober is an ASSET. One lost season is not going to cost him the value he still has as a 30 year old pitcher with a solid track record and attractive affordability especially when he was mentioned as a "Dark Horse Cy Young candidate" coming into the 2025 season. His BBTV of 16.6 is not as high as it once was, but that value would be more than enough to trade even up for White Sox 22 year old Catcher Edgar Quero (14.6). Quero is already an excellent defensive catcher. He hit .268 in 111 games and 365 AB's as a rookie. He only hit 5 HR's and his OPS was only .689 but he showed a lot of promise. He played 72 games at Catcher and another 29 at DH. If the Twins wanted to go for broke, they could offer Ober (16.6) and Jeffers 8.1) to the White Sox for 23 year old Catcher Kyle Teel (24.8). Teel is not quite as good as Quero defensively, but still better than Jeffers by a mile. Teel is the better hitter at this point, hitting .277 in 297 PA with an excellent .375 OBP and .786 OPS. Teel hit 8 HR's last season. The Twins also wouldn't be under the pressure to pay Jeffers more than they'd like. If the Twins did this, they could re-sign Vasquez for $2 million per season for 2 years giving the Twins a solid bridge until Tait and/or Enrique Jimenez are ready. With Teel and Quero so young, in addition to prospects like Tait and Jimenez, the Twins catching situation would be solid for years to come. I just don't see a scenario where Ryan, Lopez and Ober are all on the Twins to begin the 2026 season. I think they are selling too low on Pablo Lopez, so the highest chance of a trade where solid value could be realized in return rests with Ryan and Ober.- 28 replies
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- bailey ober
- travis adams
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I will also add that one of the biggest flaws in BBTV is how obviously GREAT players are evaluated. As NYCTK pointed out, Skubal and Skenes are clearly the best SP's in baseball and they will be for quite a few more years. They are at a level above everyone else. Yet, BBTV has Skubal valued at 51.6 (his high that I can remember this year was 68.6). Joe Ryan's high at one point was 73. Ryan finished the season with a value of 47. Even with a few more years of control and relatively cheap prices for Ryan, there is no way Ryan should ever have been valued higher than Skubal. There is NO circumstance where that is possible. I cannot envision Skubal NOT winning his 2nd straight A.L. Cy Young award. Yet somehow, he went from a value of 68.6 to a value of 51.6 at the end of his season. How is it possible to LOSE value when in all probability he defends his CY Young Award.?? Would Sandy Koufax have fallen in value in 1966 after winning the Cy Young in 1965?? I think there is a VERY HIGH probability that the Tigers are never going to come close to paying Skubal. He will be a Met or a Dodger or Yankee or Philly either sometime this off season or certainly sometime in 2027. This is just how baseball's economics are structured at this time. Maybe a prolonged strike prior to the 2027 season will solve this problem but I'm not sure. The Tigers are going to HAVE to trade Skubal at some point and it's going to feel a LOT like it did for the Twins after the 2007 season Johan Santana) for the Tigers.
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Well, I'd just point out that you're saying after 8 starts and 48 innings pitched, that Nolan McLean is already an established major league SP. I think that statement is a little shaky. I could counter with "The Mets won't trade McLean because they don't want to repeat a previous mistake with a pitcher whose first name was "NOLAN." That might be absurd as well. I was very VERY impressed with McLean's debut. And I will be surprised if the Mets trade him. But Joe Ryan has 46 career WINS (as opposed to 48 career INNINGS) and 641 career innings. I stand by my point of view that unless McLean is a part of the package for Joe Ryan there will be no further discussion. It would also be interesting to see teams like the Phillies, Cubs and a few others profiled as well.
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The Latest On Minnesota Twins' Managerial Search
TopGunn#22 replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Of all the candidates mentioned so far, I also like Vasquez the most. He's young and affordable, but also multi-lingual and he's got some managerial experience. I'd love the idea of Nelson Cruz as the hitting coach. I think he would benefit from being a hitting coach FIRST before jumping head-first into managing. I'd love Tori Hunter as the OF coach and 3B coach. But I wonder how "committed" Tori would be. I'd offer him the 3B Coach/OF Coach job and based on his response, gauge his overall commitment. Guys like Rowson and Shelton are just taking the lazy way out by trying to rekindle 307 HR "Bomba Squad" days. Those days are long gone. Would Punto be interested in coaching Twins infielders and 1B or 3B? He's not my manager yet, but I'd start with him as a coach on the staff, just like Cruz and Hunter.- 73 replies
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- derek shelton
- nick punto
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I'm with jorgenswest on this. There is no conversation with the Mets unless McLean is in the deal. I had the opportunity to see the 24 year old McLean pitch on MLB Network 2 times this past season and I was IMPRESSED. He was easily the most intriguing pitching prospect I saw this past season. (and there were some really interesting pitching prospects). It was a very small sample size and I'm sure there will be some ups and downs as he establishes himself in MLB. The Mets need to win NOW. Ryan is a proven MLB pitcher. He's an All Star who looks like he still has some room to get even better. "Normally" the Mets would never part with a pitching prospect like McLean. But the pressure to win NOW and (hopefully) a Twins FO that is firm that McLean is in the deal would get things done. Jett Williams is ready for the majors but he's blocked by Lindor. I imagine he'd have to play 2B or CF. I'm more interested in Mark Vientos. He's 25 years old. In 2024 he blasted 27 HR's for the Mets. Nagging injuries brought that down to 17 last year, but he's got legit power. His 2024 OPS was .837. In 2025 it fell to .702. He's primarily a 3B but has played a little at 1B. He could be our 1B/DH and also provide some Royce Lewis insurance at 3B. Plus, with Culpepper and Houston on the way (and hopefully Roch Cholowsky) we don't need a SS in this trade. My trade would be: Ryan (47.0 BBTV) for McLean (21.6) Vientos (11.6) and Jonah Tong (12.6) Total 45.8. McLean rides into spring training as our #2 SP behind Lopez. This opens up a potential Baily Ober trade with a rotation of Lopez, McLean, Bradley, SWR and Matthews. Tong provides depth but with his fastball/change up, 2-pitch mix, he could be a pretty good BP piece. I still say the Twins need to spend some cash and sign a veteran FA Closer, but arms like Tong, Festa and Prielipp and maybe Abel in the BP is a good start on rebuilding the pen. I think any trade involving Ryan should include some pitching prospect with the potential to replace him. That could be McLean from the Mets, Painter from the Phillies or Tolle from the Red Sox. What I like about the Mets as a trade partner is that it gives the Twins a potential All Star SP in McLean, a position player in Vientos who adds power to the lineup and might just be the answer at 1B (or certainly DH) and it still gives the Twins another arm like Tong. Yes, there is no Catcher coming back to the Twins. But this kind of trade allows the Twins to dangle Baily Ober and maybe get that Catcher. Ober (16.6 value) straight up for the White Sox Edgar Quero (14.6) at least on paper and in perceived value gets the Twins a Catcher for NOW and the FUTURE.
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Arbitrary Thoughts: Joe Ryan
TopGunn#22 replied to Sherry Cerny's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
This will be our primary and hottest topic this entire off season. It's really hard to get a handle on what the Twins will or won't do regarding Wallner, Larnach, Jeffers, a veteran Closer or any other potential FA signing until the questions of Ryan and Lopez are resolved. I don't think there is a poster on TD who doesn't like watching Ryan or Lopez pitch when they are healthy and "on their game." A true strength of the Twins is having Lopez and Ryan at the top of their starting rotation. Not many teams can boast having 2 guys with that kind of talent at the top of their rotation. Good starting pitching remains the single most sought after commodity in major league baseball. Even better than that is AFFORDABLE good starting pitching. "Affordable" is fluid, because if it's "GOOD" it won't be "affordable" for long. As has been pointed out, the Twins do not have to trade either Ryan or Lopez. For that reason, the expected return for either should be outstanding. But the decision of which one to trade is crystal clear. One would be traded at close to "peak value" while the other would be traded at the lowest I've ever seen him valued. We've discussed Baseball Trade Values several times. I'll admit, there are times I see valuations of players, where I see a precipitous drop or huge gain, and I can somewhat understand a raising or lowering, but maybe not as extreme as the site suggests. Ryan going from a value of 73 down to 47 is one of them. Yes, his 2nd half wasn't stellar, but there is still his age, affordability and talent. From 73 I could see a value of about 65-66. That's the lowest Ryan should be. Pablo Lopez on the other hand is under contract at about $22 million per year for 2026 & 2027. When he pitched this year he was VERY good. He did have to battle thru some injuries but none of them are career threatening. Pablo is also 29 years old, yet his "value" is only 7.3. To put this into context, the latest value I've seen for Baily Ober is 16.6. That's more than double Lopez and Ober STRUGGLED this season. Given the choice, I'd rather keep Lopez and trade Ober. The Twins have Bradley, Matthews, SWR, Abel, and Prielipp. I'm not counting Festa because I think it's clear his 2026 will be spent in the BP. There is also LHP Kendy Rojas and Marco Raya at St. Paul. There is certainly depth in their rotation candidates. The 47.0 to 7.3 value advantage Ryan has over Lopez makes Ryan the clear choice to return a solid major league hitter and additional value on top of that. The Twins would be selling HIGH on Ryan. But something that jumps out to me is the value Baily Ober still carries. If he's at 16.6 on October 16th, his value isn't going to change much between now and the Winter Meetings. I for one have never been a Ryan Jeffers fan. His catching ability is below average and his bat is overrated (In my opinion). Jeffers holds a value of 8.1. If I could acquire a younger, better catcher who also hits better than Jeffers, I could see trading Jeffers rather than signing him to a pricey extension. I'd love to see an Ober (16.6) trade to the White Sox for Edgar Quero (14.6). Ober gives the White Sox stability in their rotation with a vet arm and the Twins get a Catcher that can play 100-120 games per season. The other deal to consider: Wallner (22.5) and Ober (16.6) for Kyle Teel (24.8) and relief pitcher Jordan Leasure (7.8) Twins are trading 39.1 of value and are receiving 32.6 so maybe the White Sox throw something else in, but I may take that deal straight up. Either Teel or Quero gives the Twins a solid major league Catcher who can play 100-120 games behind the plate for years to come. They are both better Catchers than Ryan Jeffers will ever be. Having Teel or Quero with Tait and Jimenez coming within 2-3 years allows the Twins to sign Vasquez for 1-2 years at $2.5 million per year. With a young durable catcher like Teel/Quero and a lot of young SP in the rotation, I think retaining Vasquez at a price significantly lower than $10 million makes sense for the next 1-2 years. Even if he can't hit himself out of a paper bag. Like most of us, I wish I had more confidence in our current president of Baseball Operations to make the shrewd kind of trades to restructure the talent on our MLB roster. But if you would allow for a trade of Ryan to the Red Sox and Wallner & Ober to the White Sox you could have the rough equivalent of the following without even considering what you could get for Jeffers. Lopez, Bradley, Matthews, SWR, Abel, Payton Tolle, Prielipp (rotation candidates). Bullpen: Leasure, Funderburk, Sands, Lawyerson, Festa, Topa, Coulombe and Ryan Helsley($7.5 Million) Lineup: C Teel 1B Casas 2B Keaschall 3B Lewis SS Lee LF Martin CF Buxton RF Wlyer Abreu DH Yandy Diaz (via trade $12 million) Bench: Vasquez, Clemens, Roden. Guys like Walker Jenkins, Culpepper, E-Rod if they show out in spring training and continue to play well at St. Paul would be just a phone call away. At some point, the Twins are going to rely on all this young SP they have from their own system and trades. There is a lot of potential and a lot of doubt. But the lineup is woefully insufficient and the fielding is sub par. New bats in the form of Abreu, Teel, Diaz and Casas as well as Keaschall and a bounce back Lewis make the lineup potentially far more productive with better and harder contact. Buxton staying healthy is always a key. If he's healthy, he WILL produce. Jenkins in particular could inject some dynamic offense and defense into the lineup. There is opportunity waiting to be realized with the right kinds of trades for the right kind of return.- 51 replies
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- joe ryan
- bailey ober
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The 1B for Tampa Bay going forward is Johnathon Arranda. Yandy Diaz is pretty much a DH for the Rays at this point. Diaz is listed as the FOURTH string 1B on their depth chart. I'm not sure Tampa wants to pay a DH $12 million a year. For "most" MLB teams $12 million is a reasonable expense. For Tampa Bay, I would think it's an extravagance. But I would love to see the Twins find a way to trade for Diaz. He's 33 years old but had a really solid year at the plate last year. I think he's still got 2 good years in him. I'd want him to be the Twins primary DH who would play 1B a couple times a week. Maybe log 40 or so starts at 1B. While Naylor or Pete Alonso would be the most "impactful" signings, the Twins need to be smart and economical in filling 1B so they have enough money to bring in a Helsley or Williams type of vet to be our Closer. Andujar is an interesting name, and aside from his tremendous 2018 with the Yankees he finally showed signs of being a solid hitter again last year. But he's only played SEVEN games at 1B in his CAREER. Only 4 of those were starts. He's more a shaky LF and primarily a DH. I think he'd be a bit too much of a risk. 2026 is the immediate issue, but I'd LOVE to know what our esteemed brain trust has planned for 2027 and beyond. The configuration of our IF could look radically different if a couple guys keep developing and we end up with the #1 overall pick in July. Brooks Lee has the biggest bullseye on his back. Presumably, he'll enter 2026 as the starting SS. But some of that depends on what trades the Twins make this off season and who we get in return. It also matters that the Twins currently have 2 excellent SS prospects in Culpepper and Marek Houston and would add a "Bobby Witt Lite" SS in Roch Cholowsky if they win the #1 overall pick. All this points to a short life for Brooks Lee as a Twins SS. Even if Lee improves to begin 2026, his time at SS is ending soon. The idea he could be a Utility Guy with the ability to cover all 4 IF positions is interesting. He might be more useful as a trade chip with the talent coming up behind him. Even with Royce Lewis moving better at 3B, his future could very well be at 1B. For 2026, I'm leaving him at 3B and maybe for several more seasons. I really think it's high time the Twins make some moves to shore up 1B. Bringing back a 40 year old Carlos Santana is NOT the answer. Trying to jam the square peg into a round hole (trying Wallner and/or Larnach there) is not the answer. In a make believe world, I'd just sign Alonso and bat him cleanup. Unfortunately, we Twins fans live in the real world. I would trade for Yandy Diaz. The cost would NOT be prohibitive and I think Tampa will look at the $12-million for a primary DH as not cost effective. I would also trade Joe Ryan to the Red Sox and get Tristan Casas as a throw in for the overall package. Diaz and Casas are not quality fielding 1B. Their forte is hitting. But between the 2 of them the Twins would upgrade 1B & DH, a big step toward getting a better lineup. And at least both Diaz and Casas are actually 1B, as opposed to Wallner, Larnach or even Andujar. The Twins just don't have a 1B prospect close to being major league ready. That guy was supposed to be Sabato (maybe even Rooker). In 2-3 years they "might" have a 1B prospect but waiting until 2028 is not an option.
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- carlos santana
- ty france
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Keep these reports coming Jamie !! They make for interesting reading. I wonder if a few of these hitters could also be picked with comp picks at the end of round #1 or in the 2nd or 3rd round as well. It will be interesting to see how some of these guys do in 2026 and what the Twins plan is for drafting in 2026. If the Twins are lucky enough to end up with #1 overall, and they pick Roch Chololsky, how will that affect what their plan would be for rounds #2-#4?
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- chris hacopian
- justin lebron
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Three Internal Options to Help Rebuild Twins Bullpen
TopGunn#22 replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
This is a topic that certainly needs to be addressed and will be, at least several more times throughout this winter. The Twins FO burned their BP to the ground at the deadline. But they do have some interesting options. First and foremost, I agree that the Twins will need to spend for at least TWO veteran arms this off season. The most important will be in convincing a veteran arm (Helsley, Williams, Yates...?) to sign a pillow contract to be our Closer to rebuild their value. EACH of these guys has been a dominant Closer MULTIPLE times throughout their careers, yet found himself not Closing at all after the deadline, or in the case of Yates, all season. If one of these guys could be signed for 2-years, even better. The next key guy for next season's BP is David Festa. I wouldn't compare him to Duran as much as I would Jax. But either is a valid comparison. Festa's stuff is NASTY. But he can't stay healthy. The Twins should commit to putting him in the pen for the next two seasons. I would start Festa out in the 7th inning and allow him to bully his way into the 8th inning set-up job if he earns it. Yes, he could very well be a future All Star type Closer, but this is why a vet is needed for at least 2026. Give Festa the time to grow into his role. Connor Prielipp: He's 25 and like ALL young Twins pitchers just can't seem to stay healthy. But the glimpses of wipeout stuff have ALWAYS been there. Have him (and Festa) start preparing for one inning bullpen roles this off season. It is not etched in stone that a pitcher cannot slide back into a starting role once a few years of BP dominance has been achieved. MLB has had more than a few guys do it in just the last 3 years. For guys with wipeout "STUFF" Festa and Prielipp MUST be given BP opportunities in 2026. We have more than enough rotation depth/candidates at this time. (Side Note: I have to get my annual Matt Canterino Rosary out right now as well). "STUFF" is impressive. "STUFF" is undeniable. It's never a bad thing to possess as a pitcher. But many guys who have "STUFF" are just "throwers." They aren't "pitchers." Cody Lawyerson strikes me as a "pitcher." To me this is something that can never be underrated. I for one, want to see him get a solid opportunity to earn a BP spot. When everybody coming out of the pen throws 98-100mph, I think it's nice to have a "change of pace" guy like Lawyerson who seems to me to be a guy who just knows how to pitch. There are some attractive options to consider in a Twins BP rebuild, and I didn't even mention someone like Marco Raya, who seems to have been destined for the BP his entire minor league career with outings capped at 40 pitches. They need ONE solid vet Closer to provide stability at the end of games. They have several options. It should really be the Twins #1 priority this off season because I don't think they can effectively rebuild the BP until they have one. Once they check this box, they can focus on trading Joe Ryan and reshaping their lineup and defense.- 37 replies
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- cody laweryson
- david festa
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Vasquez is certainly a guy who has paid his dues. He could be a sneaky good candidate. I have to admit, I don't have ANY idea what kind of Manager he would be since he's managed in the Red Sox minor leagues. But I know Boston has had some pretty good talent ascend to the big leagues in recent years, and he's probably managed each of those guys in the minors as well as coached them with the Red Sox. I like that he's been a base coach. Billy Martin was a base coach long before he got a chance to manage. I like that he's been Alex Cora's 2nd in command in Boston the last couple of years. Boston plays a "power game" in the friendly confines of Fenway Park, but still lets some of their guys steal bases (Story, Duran, Rafaela). Maybe Vasquez has something to do with that, He would also be a tremendous resource if the Twins were to zero in on a Joe Ryan to Boston trade. Vasquez would have extensive knowledge of the Red Sox tiers of talent and would be very insightful in adding "diamonds in the rough" if the trade was to expand to players beyond just Joe Ryan.
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Frank Howard at 6:7 and supposedly 255 pounds might be a good comparison to Wallner, although Wallner will never come close to being half the hitter "Hondo" was. Howard was the N.L. Rookie of the Year" in 1960 for the Dodgers. He played thru the 1964 season with L.A. before they traded him to the Senators for Claude Osteen. Howard primarily played RF (he also had a very good arm) a little LF and once in a Blue Moon would get a game at 1B. In fact, Howard only played 4 games in 1960 and 7 games in 1961 for the Dodgers at 1B. He played exclusively in the OF, again primarily RF for the Dodgers in 1962-1964. Upon the trade to the Senators, Howard didn't play ANY games at 1B until 1967, and that was only 4. He never played more than 70 games at 1B, which he did in 1972. By that time, "Hondo" was still 6:7 but he had to be somewhere between 280-300 pounds. He was never a good 1B. But until 1973 he had to play SOMEWHERE to get his bat in the lineup. I'm not sure Wallner could ever learn the position well enough to be described as anything other than a "butcher" at 1B. Anyone who saw the stellar backhand pickup Freddie Freeman made in the 9th inning to close out the Phillies, or saw Kent Hrbek operate at the position knows you play with fire if you minimize it's defensive importance. Harmon Killebrew was never a Gold Glove winner, but his athleticism allowed him to be a competent 1B and 3B after he transitioned from the outfield. I don't think anything close to Killebrew could be expected of Wallner. I still maintain that Wallner should be used as trade bait to get a young catcher. I'm not a believer in his magnificent OPS. But I believe other teams would be intrigued. I'd trade Wallner (22.50 BBTV) and Larnach (1.3) 23.8 total to the White Sox, straight up for Kyle Teel 24.8. Or Wallner for Edgar Quero (14.6) and Jordan Leasure (7.8) 22.4 total. (Leasure would be a competent BP arm who could potentially be a Closer). The Twins could throw money at Josh Naylor for 1B. That might be to rich despite all the savings already realized with the deadline fire sale. They could trade for a 1B. Tristan Casas as a Red Sox throw in for Joe Ryan (Casas should be ready for spring training) or even Tampa Bay's Yandy Diaz (4.7 BBTV). A trade of Andrew Morris could come close to getting it done. Diaz is under contract for $12 million in 2026 and has a club option for 2027. He's a solid RH bat who would fit nicely in the #5 or #6 spot in the lineup. So I'm not looking for the FO to get creative and try to turn Wallner or Larnach into a 1B. That ship has sailed. What I'm looking for out of the FO is the creativity to solve the position long term (Tristan Casas trade or a Josh Naylor signing) or shorter term with a Yandy Diaz type for 2 years. I don't want to see Clemens, Julien or Ty France types. I could live with a Royce Lewis/Luke Keaschall at 1B if trades were made that filled their other positions.
- 97 replies
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- carlos santana
- ty france
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T&R, I can't begin to explain HOW BBTV comes up with their ultimate ratings for players. I know a lot of it is based on how much a player is being paid. One thing I do not agree with about their "formula" is that if a player is highly paid, but also performs at a high level, they don't seem to get any credit for being GOOD or GREAT. Now if you have a guy like Kris Bryant, who was a former MVP but has been hurt multiple times each SEASON ever since, well he's just a Black Hole of Negative Value. I get that. I'm not sure how any pitcher could be valued higher than Tarik Skubal regardless of what he's being paid now and what his expected mega contract will eventually yield. But somehow, on the verge of winning his 2nd straight A.L. Cy Young, Skubal's value went from 68.6 to 62.6 and finally now, seems to have bottomed out at 51.6 (did they SEE his 13 strikeout performance over 6 innings the other night???). ?? I kind of "get" the reduction of value for Lewis. He can't live on his 2023 2nd half and post season forever. At some point he's got to stay healthy and put up a 25 HR 90 RBI season. If he does that, his value will soar like an eagle. I've pretty much focused on a Ryan trade to the Red sox because I like some of their players and prospects and they seem to be a team that needs to unload an OF and som prospects to get the SP they need. But here's an idea for a trade with the Mets. Mets get: Joe Ryan 47.0 Brooks Lee 20.6 Total: 67.6 Twins get: Nolan McLean SP 21.6 (24 y/o) Jett Williams SS 23.1 (21 y/o) Mark Vientos 3B/DH 11.6 25 y/o and Jonah Tong SP 22 y/o 12.6. Total 68.6. The Mets may be loath to give up a young fireballer like McLean who was very impressive late this season, but he's the centerpiece along with Jett Williams. Ryan at 47.0 straight up for McLean 21.6 and Williams 23.1 (Total: 44.7) would be acceptable to me, but I'd like to add Vientos, a 25 year old 3B/DH who I wonder if he could play 1B. He hit 27 HR's in 2024 with an OPS of .837. This last season he slumped to 17 HR's and an OPS of .702. But I'm intrigued what he could provide to the Twins lineup. If the Mets wouldn't give up Tong I could take a different player. Giving up Lee doesn't bother me because Jett Williams is ready at 21 years old, he's just blocked by Francisco Lindor. With Culpepper and Marek Houston on the horizon, Lee wouldn't be the Twins SS for long anyway. He can slot in at 3B or 2B for the Mets.
- 69 replies
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- pablo lopez
- byron buxton
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Indeed, there is only ONE Bobby Witt Jr. But Roch could be a very reasonable facsimile. If the Twins end up with the #1 pick and Cholowski has another dominant college season, the Twins simply MUST select him. I could see Roch moving through the system quickly. If Culpepper and Houston keep improving and showing promise, Roch is still the pick. I could see Culpepper joining the Twins by June 1st of next year. Marek Houston is then promoted to St. Paul in a corresponding move, imagine what the Twins infield could look like in 2027. To me, Houston is the key in this. His glove is that of a future Gold Glover. If he's able to hit .280 with a .360-.370 OBP and hit with enough extra base power to OPS at .750-.770 (throw in 15ish SB's) he would project to be a solid SS. Then project Roch to Bobby Witt Jr. "Lite." He could find himself at 3B with Culpepper at 2B. What an INFIELD !! The question there would be who plays 1B. Depending on the moves (or lack thereof) this off season, there's a chance Keaschall ends up at 1B or LF. That could be the best Twins infield for hitting and fielding since Gaetti, Gagne, Knoblauch and Hrbek. If Marek Houston falls short of the above offensive projection, he would still make an outstanding Utility player with a stellar glove and good base running skills. Roch is the SS and Culpepper goes to 3rd with Keaschall remaining at 2B. It still projects to be a pretty good IF, both offensively and defensively.
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LA Vikes Fan, I am the guy that posted the possible trade of Ryan to the Red Sox for Wilyer Abreu, Payton Tolle and Tristan Casas. Nick's article is exactly where I've stood on the issue of Ryan or Lopez being traded. To me, they are very similar in ability. Look at their career stats and you can see how similar. Ryan is better when it comes to WHIP, Lopez has a longer track record of success. They will both turn 30 years old within 3 months of each other during the 2026 season. Generally, it's not good to have multiple pitchers over the age of 35 pulling down big bucks in your starting rotation. Especially if you're a team that has always operated under a "budget." The Twins are looking at Lopez, Ryan and Ober all will be 30-31 years old during the 2026 season. The Twins would probably prefer to have only one "anchor" of their rotation who they are paying $20+ million a season to going forward. That is why they are stock piling young arms to go with their homegrown pitchers like Matthews, SWR, Festa, as well as up and coming arms like Prielipp and Dasam Hill. The Twins can and should get a significant haul for a pitcher like Ryan. They would be selling high. Ober is a different story. They would be selling low and I'm uneasy about his decrease in velocity. He was never a hard thrower, but an extra 2-3 mph makes a big difference for him. Ryan's BBTV is 47.0. Lopez is at 7.3. They are the same age and have the same relative ability. The situation SCREAMS trade Joe. Hang on to Pablo. The last value I saw for Pablo was just under 20 but I'm sure that's fallen a long way. My plan would be to keep Pablo, trade Ryan this off season and trade Ober at the deadline, especially if he's rebuilt his value. Matthews, SWR, Bradley, Abel, Prielipp, Dasan Hill...there's plenty of guys who could step in for Ober mid season. Someone has suggested they'd rather have Marcelo Meyer, a polished 21 y/o SS in a one-for-one trade with the Red Sox instead of my proposed trade. I could get on board with that. But Meyer has a value of 51.2. Ryan has a value of 47.0. Maybe the Twins throw in Andrew Morris, maybe they hold fast for a one-for-one deal. Even with Culpepper and Marek Houston on the way, Meyer would be a solid return. And he could probably push Lee to a Utility role right out of spring training. That move would fill SS for the foreseeable future if the Red Sox want to stick with Trevor Story for 2026 or move Ceddane Rafaela or Kristian Campbell to SS. But if the Red Sox see Meyer as their starting SS for 2026 they won't budge. The BEST thing for the Twins was Boston's early ouster at the hands of the hated Yankees. They clearly NEED Joe Ryan. I like my trade better because the Red Sox can afford to give up Wilyer Abreu when they still have Duran, Anthony and Ceddane Rafaela as well as good old Rob Refsnyder. They are getting Ryan, so they can easily give up #2 prospect LHP Payton Tolle. And I think it's vital to the Twins to ask for Tristan Casas as a throw in. Boston needs to win NOW. They probably won't have the patience to wait for Casas to get healthy and instead will sign someone like Josh Naylor. Not a bad signing for Fenway Park. That is the kind of trade that replaces Joe Ryan with another young, high potential arm to take his spot in the Twins rotation. It fills a corner OF spot with a Gold Glover with power and it fills the 1B/DH spot with another power hitter. Getting Meyer would be great, but he only fills one hole, and we have 2 guys coming who could do that. Pablo Lopez can't get the Twins anything near what Joe Ryan can, but he can pitch to a 2026 outcome that would be very close if not better than what Joe Ryan could do. By 2027, the Twins will either be extending Pablo if they need to, or moving him aside to let the next wave of young pitchers take over at a fraction of the cost. Oataknam, I agree with your premise that a good team starts with good pitchers and solid depth. But I'm old enough to remember a couple trades where a team acquired a solid young pitcher for a hitter where it worked out pretty good for the team acquiring the hitter. (Yes, I'm cherry-picking). Here's one: The Baltimore Orioles, following the 1965 season had a LOT of young pitchers either on their roster already or on the way. They had just finished 3rd in the A.L. behind the Twins and White Sox. They needed a thumper. So they convinced the Reds to take a promising 26 year old SP named Milt Pappas for a fading 29 year old Superstar named Frank Robinson. The rest is history. I'm not saying Wilyer Abreu is going to win the Triple Crown after joining the Twins, but he and Casas could provide "thump" and lengthen the lineup. Trading Joe Ryan gives the Twins a chance to fill some massive holes with a quality player or two. Trading Pablo Lopez will not do that.
- 69 replies
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- pablo lopez
- byron buxton
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When Funderburk initially came up he looked pretty good. Then the league established a "book" on him and he (or the Twins coaching staff) seemed to be slow in countering. Late this season he seemed to really turn a corner. Throwing strikes at a higher clip is always helpful for a pitcher. Matthews, Bradley and Abel could become MUCH better if they can achieve better command and throw strikes consistently. We saw evidence of that in each of their last starts. Hopefully, the Twins will make some trades to get some better OF. I'm not convinced Brooks Lee is an every day SS. I'm not sure Culpepper is a BETTER SS but he's certainly more athletic. I think Marek Houston is a future Gold Glove winner at SS if his offense allows him to play in the major leagues. Once the Twins field a better defensive team, their starters and relievers across the board will perform better. It's tough to field a good defensive team when over 50% of your fielders profile as DH's. Even with Funderburk, I'd like to see the Twins bring back either Thielbar or Coulombe. Having more than ONE reliable Lefty in the pen should be a goal.
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Arbitrary Thoughts: OF Trevor Larnach
TopGunn#22 replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
JADBP, Baseball is a team game with very specific and measurable individual statistics. Every inning of every game players are competing to prove they deserve more AB's, more innings pitched, "I'm a better defensive player, put ME in at the end of the game for defense," I'm faster and have better base running instincts, put ME in to pinch run." This doesn't mean you are wishing bad things toward your teammates. It's just part of the competitive nature of every athlete. I was always a good teammate. But I wanted to PLAY. It's what drove me to work harder, make improvements. Wanting to play doesn't make someone a bad teammate. Everything should be EARNED. A player who is batting 9th should be happy they are in the lineup, but should also strive to move UP in the order. And to do that, they have to EARN IT. -
Arbitrary Thoughts: OF Trevor Larnach
TopGunn#22 replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I can agree that against RH pitchers Larnach might be our 3rd best hitter on "some" days. But I've got to believe that if the Dodgers are willing to pay a 38 year old relief pitcher $14 million dollars for this past season NOT to be their closer (Kirby Yates) there have to be about a dozen teams who would look at $5 million for a "serviceable" LH hitter against RH pitchers (which make up about 70-75% of ALL pitchers) as an acceptable cost. I realize that a decision whether to go to arbitration with Larnach must be made by the end of November, but I'm not sure I'd offer him arbitration before I would make the biggest move of the Twins off season...trading SP Joe Ryan. And I don't see a move like that happening until early-mid December. I think Joe Ryan was pretty miffed about the whole trade deadline ordeal. But I also think his value has never been higher. Trading Ryan gives the Twins a great chance to re-shape the roster with some players that could fill some big holes. Boston Gets: Joe Ryan BBTV of 47.0 Twins Get: Wilyer Abreu 33.0 Gold Glove RF with power. 26 years old. Payton Tolle 13.9 20 year old LH Starting Pitcher, Triston Casas 0.0 1B/DH 25 years old. TOTAL Value: 46.9 By acquiring the 26 year old Abreu the Twins have no need for either Larnach or Wallner. In fact, acquiring Abreu frees the Twins up to trade Wallner for a young, major league Catcher. Wallner's BBTV of 28.5 may or may not have fallen a bit. But his value all by itself is higher than that of Kyle Teel 24.8, Edgar Quero 14.6 (both Chicago White Sox) and Harry Ford 19.1 Seattle Mariners. This value is rather old but I haven't seen his name pop up on BBTV for awhile. That 19.1 value surely hasn't increased as Ford had just 8 plate appearances in the major leagues this year. But he's 21 years old, believed to be MLB ready and is blocked by Cal Raleigh. I have to believe that the White Sox and Mariners would be intrigued with the undisputed "KING of OPS" Matt Wallner. These 2 trades would set the Twins up with the following lineup and rotation: I'll start with the lowest rated Catcher of the above three, Edgar Quero even though Teel and Ford are distinct possibilities. C Edgar Quero 1B Tristan Casas 2B Luke Keaschall SS Brooks Lee (to start the year) 3B Royce Lewis RF Wilyer Abreu CF Byron Buxton LF Larnach? Austin Martin? Roden? Walker Jenkins? Your DH/1B would be a rotating position, or you could make a deal for a RH bat like 1B Yandy Diaz who is only valued at 4.7. The Twins could add his solid RH bat at a cost easy to bear. That lineup has power, but makes contact far more consistently than any lineup in recent Twins history. With the exception of Larnach (if he's still around) there is no obvious "platoon" candidate. The Rotation: Lopez, Ober, SWR, Bradley, Matthews, Abel, Tolle. There are 7 arms as primary competitors. The BP remains a mess with only Sands, Funderburk and ?? as probable locks. Festa must prove himself healthy before being considered for any role. I believe if the trades I've listed above can be completed, and they are not outrageous possibilities, a bona vide Closer needs to be signed. I nominate Ryan Helsley or Devin Williams. It may only be for a one year deal for them to rebuild their value. If the Twins are in contention they could hold onto that Closer or deal him at the deadline. There are a LOT of young players with promise in the Twins farm system. Maybe only Walker Jenkins is a true potential star. There is major league talent there. Some of that talent needs to matriculate to the Twins in 2026/2027. But players like Abreu, Quero, Casas, Tolle and a Yandy Diaz type would inject a better brand of baseball along side Buxton and Keaschall. Better defense, more consistent contact. The young SP's will have ups and downs. The BP, even with a veteran Closer with something to prove will have ups and downs. But in the A.L. Central, if there are more Ups than Downs, the Twins could very well compete. -
I’ll also agree that some kind of suggestion as to what was acquired with all those trades was obviously needed in the article. Just a guess on my part: from Boston for Ryan: OF Wilyer Aubreu, LH SP Payton Tolle and 1B Tristan Casas, recovering from his knee injury. From Tampa Bay for Jeffers, 1B Yandy Diaz. This is close to a net negative in salary but fills the need for a solid RH bat to play 1B/DH with Casas in the mix. I don’t have a handle on who we would get from the Mets, maybe 3B Mark Vientos as major league talent or unknown to me minor league talent. I do whatever it takes to get either young catcher from the White Sox. Wallner’s BBTV is currently greater than either of them. Let the White Sox take advantage of the tremendous OPS that Wallner could bring to their lineup. So if we added the players I’ve mentioned, we would have Quero catching, a tandem of Diaz and Casas at 1B/DH and Wilyer Abreu in RF (Gold Glove winner-tremendous upgrade from Wallner). Finally, you’ve added Mark Vientos and his power hitting at 3B. He replaces Lewis if he’s traded to the Angels for…whatever. The trade of Ryan gets the Twins the foundation for the future and the other trades fill in around that.
- 102 replies
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- pablo lopez
- joe ryan
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All this indicates to me is that Arraez doesn't have a lot of leverage to get a salary much more than $5-$7 million a year. He's elite in making contact. The Twins could use that type of bat as opposed to "OPS God" Matt Wallner, a bona fide rally killer. Arraez has well known warts. There are certainly better options for 1B but if I could get him at 3 years $5 million a year I just might do it.

