TopGunn#22
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Everything posted by TopGunn#22
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Lots of good comments and good logic from a number of different ideas, opinions and viewpoints. of all of them I've read so far, I think I agree with bunsen82 the most. I'm not campaigning for the Twins to trade either Ryan or Lopez. But I think one or them is going to be traded. I'm all for moving on from guys like Wallner and Larnach. We've got young guys coming for our OF and maybe someone comes in a trade. I agree that Bradley is closer than Abel. But Abel is kind of like Zebby Matthews. Both have really good STUFF, but they keep getting shelled in the big leagues. Command and control is the biggest issue for both. An off season of study, work and refinement could make a big difference for each. In many respects, I think the Twins have plenty of prospects. If I traded Ryan, I'd want to get a major league player for him. Like Jarren Duran from the Red Sox. Boston has a crowded OF. If they want Ryan, it's going to cost them Duran. Tolle and Garcia are nowhere near the value of Joe Ryan. I also think that this off season there will be a LOT of teams that will be interested in Joe Ryan. Why not get an old fashioned bidding war going. We acquired 2 nice catching prospects at the trade deadline, but each of them is at least 2-3 years from being a Twin. The Twins need a young, major league catcher to pair with Jeffers (or if Jeffers is traded). If it takes moving Matt Wallner in a package I'm ready to talk. It's hard as a fan to see 40% of your major league roster moved at the deadline and to see a once formidable bullpen gutted. It will not be an easy fix for 2026. Some bold moves still need to be made and I wish I had even an ounce of faith Derek Falvey deliver. I wish I wasn't convinced that Rocco would just sour any talent we brought in. And I'm fully convicted that Twins fans will probably have a bored indifference to a ballclub owned by the Pohlad family. I hope we have another mild winter. Because I think it's going to be a harsh winter for Twins fans.
- 70 replies
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- joe ryan
- payton tolle
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Hindsight is always 20-10. Like an Eagle. Yes, it was questionable, but it's hard when the player is pushing to get out there. To me, the silver lining is that there is no way the Twins should trade him this winter. His value, due to his injury filled season and his contract puts his value far below what it really is. If I was a pitching needy team, I'd be working on an angle to trade for Pablo rather than Joe Ryan. Ryan's value is at an all time high. Lopez is at about the lowest he's ever been. If both were healthy and effective next season, their stat lines would be remarkably similar. They will both be 30 years old. If the Twins FO feels they simply MUST trade Lopez or Ryan then Joe Ryan is the guy to deal. He would bring back so much more. Ryan's BBTV is around 53 to 58 right now. Lopez is at 12.8. That's about equal to Bailey Ober. The primary consideration here is salary. But all things considered, Pablo's $22 million dollar salary for 2026 and 2027 is actually a bargain. Would you rather have Pablo Lopez starting game #1 of a playoff series or Baily Ober?? Would letting Pablo pitch 2 more games have added a significant bump in value if the Twins were really considering trading him this winter? Probably not. So the 2nd guessing sending him out there to pitch a meaningless game is understandable.
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They certainly need a complete house cleaning, starting with ownership. They've gotten their "mystery investors" to infuse $400 million dollars into the operation. They cut payroll drastically yet again at the deadline. Are we to believe that none of the $30 million saved by trading Correa and others will be spent on improving the roster? This is as sad a situation as Twins fans have ever been in. The original owner, Calvin Griffith was notorious for not spending money. But we always gave him credit for paying the guys he obviously had to: Killebrew, Carew and Oliva. What began the ultimate death spiral for Calvin's ownership was trading away Blyleven, letting top notch hitters walk for nothing like Lyman Bostock and Larry Hisle and ultimately ticking Rod Carew off to the point he had to trade him with no leverage to the Angels and got almost nothing back in return. Yesterday's doubleheader sweep at the hands of the Guardians where the Twins failed to score a run just highlighted the futility. I wonder what the Twins forecast for season ticket sales is for next year? Or what their projection for overall attendance will be? Even at their lowest point, the Timberwolves never had it as tough as this current triumvirate of ownership, front office and manager/coaching staff. Things changed for the better for the Vikings after the Wilf brothers took over. Things had started to turn better for the T-Wolves and Glen Taylor tried his best to weasel out of his sale, but finally, bumbling Glen was sent packing. It's painfully obvious the Twins need new ownership, a new philosophy, a different approach to building a baseball team. The Pohlad's are clutching the Twins like their hanging from a cliff. How bad does it have to get before they finally realize they've worn out there welcome. In a different post, I suggested a guy like Torey Luvullo would be an interesting manager to pursue if the D-Backs decided to make a change. He had them in the World Series just a couple of years ago and he had some really heavyweight teams to overcome. The Dodgers, Braves, Mets, Phillies, Brewers. But I'm not sure if he's on thin ice in Arizona or not. But I just can't see much changing with a new manager and a new front office, until the Pohlad's are eliminated from the equation. Change needs to start from the top. New ownership is needed to bring a new vision to the Twins. New owners need to make the decisions on front office and managerial hires.
- 62 replies
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- royce lewis
- brooks lee
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tony&rodney, I agree 100% the Twins will not get value for Pablo, probably due to his contract vs. trading Joe Ryan. Both pitchers will be 30 years old in 2026. We have Pablo signed thru 2027. Ryan just looks like a lost soul after the trade deadline trauma. I would trade Ryan to get someone like Duran and mix in some additional players on each side to see if I could plug a couple of holes. For example, how about Ryan, Kendry Rojas, Kody Clemens and Wallner for Duran, Payton Tolle, Tristan Casas and Franklin Arias. Twins give up 97.5 in value. Red Sox give up 96.7. Red Sox get Ryan. They get a power hitting OF/DH in Wallner who replaces Duran. Power and defensive versatility in Clemens (obvious fan favorite) and a young LHP to replace Tolle with Rojas. Twins get a solid, All Star OF in Duran who is excellent defensively in LF & CF. The Twins also get a young LH starting pitcher with good potential to compete for a rotation spot. They have a potential 1B/DH once he's healthy in Casas and an athletic 18 year old SS in Arias. Tolle gives the Twins yet another talented young SP candidate (21 y/o) who's already up with Boston and pitching. That allows even more flexibility to dangle a young SP to a team for a young catcher.
- 62 replies
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- royce lewis
- brooks lee
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It's early for an article like this...but it's really not. This season is cooked and it wasn't a good meal. We're just running out the string hoping desert saves the day. IE: we see glimpses of hope with Buxton completing the healthiest season of his career, Keaschall continues to impress, Lewis finishes strong, and the young pitchers show improvement. The current state of our BP is horrible. In the A.L. Central, you're never really completely out of contention. Nick is right that a LOT has to go right for the Twins to even contend for a Wild Card spot. But remember 1991. Both the Twins and Braves came out of nowhere from last place divisional finishes to play a thrilling 7 game World Series. In baseball, crazy things happen. Where Nick is maybe a little too hopeful is that the Twins will keep both Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez. I just think that, as disappointing as it would be to trade one of them, a trade of one of them is highly likely. A trade of BOTH of them would be throwing in the towel no matter what the return was. Any trades invloving Ryan/Lopez must bring back a good, solid, major league position player. Prospects can be throw-ins, but a position player who would slot in #1-#5 in the Twins lineup next year is essential. I posited in an earlier post that adding Josh Naylor and Jarren Duran to our lineup could be just the catalyst to make it deadly. We can hope the Pohlad's will still sell before spring training next year. Probably not going to happen. We can hope that an entirely new FO is installed before the Winter Meetings in December. Also probably not going to happen. We can hope that Rocco Baldelli and his entire coaching staff is replaced. This is at least possible, even though he's been "extended." He could be the fall guy ownership and the FO hopes takes the heat off them. It won't. Twins fans know better, but I think Twins decision makers could consider it. The Twins had young talent that was going thru the crucible of failure to eventually become good. But those young players didn't really "get there" until Tom Kelly came on board. So who could the next Twins manager be? I have no idea, other than to say please don't promote from within. We need fresh ideas. I would suggest that someone like Torey Lovullo, if the D-Backs choose to make a change would be an interesting guy. The D-Backs were in the World Series just 2 years ago and lost to the Rangers. Not only did his D-Backs compete with the Dodgers admirably, but they overcame other juggernauts like Philly, the Mets, Padres and Braves. I doubt Arizona will move on from Lovullo, but if they did, I'd be interested.
- 62 replies
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- royce lewis
- brooks lee
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Kelly is #1 for sure. You can't be the manager on our only 2 World Series Championship teams and not be. Billy Martin, in his one glorious season is #2. Billy also lost his two playoff games against the Orioles to finish with a zero percent winning percentage, but that team may have been the most exciting team the Twins ever had. They were beaten in the post season by an Orioles team that for 1969, 1970 and 1891 put together a pretty fantastic 3 year record. Sam Mele is #3. He took the Twins to a World Series, and some top 3 finishes in the American League. Gardy gets #4. He won a lot of division titles but his post season legacy knocks him down. Paul Molitor gets #5 for me ahead of Gene Mauch. I wish Molly had gotten more of a chance. I agree that Rocco is a fine person. But post 2019 he's been very frustrating. His magic lasted just enough to get us a playoff game in the Covid shorted season, but what magic he had is no more.
- 68 replies
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- rocco baldelli
- ron gardenhire
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It's gotta be frustrating to write an article that on the surface seems very logical and well researched, only to see the subject (Taj Bradley in this case) get absolutely blown up not 3 hours later. However, I understand the "gist" of the piece. Bradley, Matthews, Abel and I'll include SWR and FESTA all have a certain degree of potential that is quite intriguing. Of the bunch, SWR has the least raw "stuff" and I've been trying to trade him for what seems forever. But his performance against the Yankees was the best I've ever seen him pitch. I've always thought SWR struggled to get past the 4th inning. I may have to reassess my thoughts on that. Bradley, Matthews, Abel, and Festa all have big fastballs and capable stuff. But none of them seem to be able to consistently throw strikes or effectively locate. That is what's separating each of these guys from being a solid major league pitcher vs a guy that makes you tear your hair out. The continued ineffectiveness of Matthews is probably what frustrates me the most. He had a reputation coming up thru the minors as having pinpoint control. His walk to strikeout ratio was outstanding. Home plate is the same size. It's the same 60 feet, 6 inches from the pitching rubber in the majors as it is in the minors. And for these last couple years he's been up in the big leagues, Zebby Matthews can't locate consistently at all. I know facing Aaron Judge is NOT like facing your typical AA or AAA hitter. But often times, pitchers are at their best when they pitch their game, to their strengths, locate the ball effectively and attack the hitter...no matter who it is. I'm willing to see these guys take some lumps now and then. Frank Viola struggled badly his first couple of years, but once he consistently started commanding his pitchers he went from bad to good, good to very good and very good to a Cy Young Award. My frustration is that these young pitchers (with the exception of SWR's last game) just aren't showing the kind of progress they should. I'd love to see each of these guys spend a month in the Dominican Winter League further refining their pitches and command. I don't think any of them are at a critical innings limitation point. Maybe Maki should be spending a week with each of them sometime this winter. Guys with "stuff" like Bradley, Matthews, and Abel shouldn't be getting shelled on a consistent basis. They have to start showing major league improvement, especially with how good they look at St. Paul (Mick Abel). The key to the Twins in many respects lies with how these 5 pitchers develop over this winter to 2026. Yes, Prielipp and Dasan Hill and others are coming in the future. But Bradley, Matthews, SWR, Abel and Festa, whether starting or closing games need to start actually producing positive results.
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The big question of course is would the Pohlad's actually spend anywhere from $20-$30 from the payroll they cut at the deadline. They could cut even more with a trade of Pablo, but the return would be much smaller than what they could get for Joe Ryan. I'm in complete agreement with "hitterscount" that of all the guys who were listed, Naylor is who I would sign. Not only would you get 1B solved but you'd put a consistently GOOD hitter in the middle of your lineup. Naylor might not be a Gold Glove candidate, but he's not a butcher either. A signing like Naylor for $10-$12 million for 3 years or so would be an impact signing on the positive side. None of the other other guys really interest me. Rather than Pressly, who clearly looks cooked, I'd make a play for a closer who was traded at the deadline but put in a set-up role and has struggled. My #1 target would be Former Cardinals closer Ryan Helsley. He's been a lights-out closer for the Cards 2022-2024. Even this year before being traded he had 21 saves and an ERA of 3.00. Since going to the Mets he's been horrible. But I think he's wired to be a closer, not a set-up man. Helsley's current contract pays him $8.2 million. Other options should be out there: Devin Williams, Camilo Doval, Kirby Yates. ALL of them have fallen on hard times. Williams and Yates were outstanding in 2024. Both 1B and Closer are primary needs. At least we have Ryan Jeffers returning (if he's not traded) so finding a Catcher is actually slightly behind 1B and Closer in importance. 2025 could be Tarik Skubal's final year in Detroit. He's a FA after the 2026 season. How likely is it for the Tigers to sign him to a massive, long-term deal with a strike/lockout looming for 2027? The Tigers could get an absolute haul for him, but as Twins fans well know after the Johan Santana trade, you're not guaranteed equal or greater value coming back. Without the best pitcher in the American League the Tigers don't look so invincible. Under that possibility, a Twins team with Naylor at 1B and Helsley closing games out could actually be quite competitive in the A.L. Central. Imagine if the Twins traded Joe Ryan to the red Sox in a package that featured outfielder Jaren Duran headlining the return? Ryan is going to arbitration. Duran has a 2026 club option with Boston that will pay him $8 million. That would practically be a wash for what Ryan will get. Maybe even save the Pohlad's a couple million. With no other trades or FA signings, your lineup would be: Buxton CF, Jarren Duran LF Luke Keaschall 2B Josh Naylor 1B Royce Lewis 3B Ryan Jeffers C Brooks Lee SS. Missing is a RF and a DH. Imagine is Buxton stays healthy, Keaschall keeps doing what he's doing, and Royce Lewis stays healthy and hits 30 HR...and you're adding Duran and Naylor to that lineup. I could have plugged Wallner and Larnach in there but I think they'll both be traded and by May Walker Jenkins in playing RF. That's a lineup that Twins fans could get excited about. Assuming that trade is made for a soon to be 30-year old Joe Ryan. The rotation would be: Pablo, Ober, Taj Bradley, SWR and Zebby/Abel. LOT'S of uncertainty but potential. Bullpen: Closer is Helsley. Sands/Festa/Funderburk handle innings 6 thru 8. LOT'S of uncertainty after that. Maybe Adams, Prielipp, Raya and others fill in. Maybe some scrap heap vets from the dumpster. But that's what ownership/FO determined was the way to go when they gutted the BP. To get Naylor $11 million and Helsley $8 million brins thru $19 million. Duran and stuff for Ryan and stuff is nearly a net zero. Maybe the Twins save $2 million. I wouldn't throw any money at 38 year old Starting Pitchers to fill my #3 spot in the rotation. I'd roll with the young guys.
- 84 replies
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- ryan pressly
- cedric mullins
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Matt Wallner or Travor Larnach?
TopGunn#22 replied to Alex Boxwell's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I would have a better sense what our direction would be if the trade deadline had made more sense tony&rodney. The Varland trade still confounds me in that they would have still had a Closer for the rest of 2025 and a potential Closer or certainly a set-up man for 2026. Instead we added yet another LH hitting OF (Roden-who is now injured) and a LHP with some promise (Rojas-who is in the minors). There just didn't seem a plan for that and it literally happened minutes before the deadline. It was almost like Falvey had been tying one on at a bar and decided two more shots for the road was a great idea. I think there would be considerably more optimism if the team had been sold, the Pohlad's were gone, Falvey would be gone, as well as Rocco and his staff, immediately upon the end of the season. But with the same people in charge it's hard to have a feeling of anticipation of better things ahead. I've complained for years here on TD that I never thought Falvey and Levine actually had an off season plan other than nibbling at leftover table scraps after the best talent had been signed or traded for. The only deals I actually liked were getting Nelson Cruz, trading Nellie when it was clear he was done (and getting Ryan) and trading Petty for Sonny Gray. I guess I still think they can acquire a young, talented catcher. A closer on the downside that could bounce back like Helsley, Doval or Yates, a 1B like Naylor or Yandy Diaz and a solid major league OF like (but not necessarily) Jaren Duran if they trade Ryan. And if those fantasies come true, the young pitchers like Zebby, Bradley, Abel and Festa have to be healthy and pitching well, not to mention having prime Lopez and Ober. That's a tall order of "Hopeium" but I'd rather stay positive than be negative. -
Matt Wallner or Travor Larnach?
TopGunn#22 replied to Alex Boxwell's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I like the idea for of Larnach for Jared Jones. But Jones (before the injury) had a value that was MUCH higher than Larnach. Not sure where the value is for Jones at this time or when he would be expected to return. He never really had any kind of 2025 season. Would the Pirates sell low on him to get a bat NOW? I doubt it with a 200K potential SP. Larnach will have some type of trade value to the right kind of team. A team where a $5 million dollar, .750 OPS type of OF is a drop in the team budget bucket. Wallner on the other hand hasn't tanked his value yet. Last I looked, Wallner had a BBTV of 29.5. Kyle Teel is at 24.8. Edgar Quero 18.2. Theoretically, the Twins could have either of those young catchers for Wallner in a straight up 1 for 1 trade. Would the Twins be better with either of those young catchers at the cost of Wallner?? I think they would. The question is, would the White Sox be interested. For the Power potential of Wallner, I think they would. A trade of Wallner for Teel or Quero would make the Twins better. But one trade isn't what will "fix the Twins." They need to make 2-3 more trades to even out the roster. I think Twins fans should expect that one of Ryan, Lopez or Ober is traded. It could be more than one of them, but I think you have to expect at least one. -
The easy ones are Julien and Mirnada. They have no value in a trade any longer and should have no value to the Twins. I've got the benefit of seeing Clemens go 4-4 with 3 HR's. But...He had 16 HR before last night's explosion and he's clearly a better defender at 2B & 1B than Julien. Before last night, I viewed him as part of the bench for 2026 with "some" defensive versatility. To me, he's worth keeping and tendering to see if the power still plays next year. It might not. If it doesn't, you simply DFA him. Outman is similar to Keirsey with more power. Neither one of them is a major league player. I realize some people think Kiersey wasn't given a good enough chance. I sure wanted him to work out. But he can't hit major league pitching. That leaves SWR. He has to be tendered because I believe he can be used in a trade to acquire a young catcher. I'm not really interested in seeing SWR remain on the Twins as a SP, but some of that depends on what happens with Ryan, Pablo and Ober. I think SWR could be a decent long reliever, but I'd rather put together a deal with the White Sox where I offer Wallner and SWR for one of their young catchers (Teel or Edgar Quero) and maybe a White Sox bullpen arm. SWR still has VALUE. (he's a young pitcher with potential). Wallner still has VALUE. (he's got prodigious POWER). Use that value with the White Sox to add a young MLB catcher NOW so that the Tait timeline isn't sped up. Eventually, the Twins will end up with 2 good catchers who have C/1B/DH capabilities. A massive organizational weakness would be the best catching situation in years. With the young OF's we have coming on the fast track, I'm willing to give up BOTH SWR and Wallner to get Teel or Edgar Quero. The Sox would still have to throw in something of value to even things up, but you finally get someone to pair with Jeffers for a season before you move on from Jeffers. Doc Gast, suggest a trade with the White Sox that moves SWR and Wallner to get Teel/Quero and whatever that something else would be from the CWS.
- 51 replies
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- jose miranda
- edouard julien
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There is no "Fall Guy." This is an organizational collapse. There should be a complete housecleaning, but as long as the Pohlad family owns the Twins that will never happen. The Pohlad's are all about "continuity" even if it's mediocre or below average. No real change will happen until the Pohlad's are GONE. This front office is pretty much the same one that signs a Margot or Shoemaker. Or pays a Kyle Farmer more than they would a Closer. The guys with ties to the Twins organization have already proven they are not MLB Managers. They are support staff. Tingler is not the guy either. Unfortunately, we are stuck with what we've got for now until the Pohlad's actually sell the team and a true purge takes place.
- 30 replies
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- rocco baldelli
- james rowson
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If Oner is healthy (and his game against the Royals seemed to show he was) then he needs to keep pitching thru the end of the season. With the exception of Buxton and Keaschall no one is off the table when it comes to trades. Let Ober rebuild his value to the point where he brings something good back in a trade, or he re-establishes his hold on the #3 spot in the rotation. Yes, he may pitch poorly and tank his value, but the Twins need to determine what he will be in 2026.
- 27 replies
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- bailey ober
- pablo lopez
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Nothing in the history of the Twins would lead any of us to believe that Sonny Gray was going to be with the Twins for the 2024 season. $75 million for a pitcher like Gray at his age would have been a bad investment. Joe Ryan is a bit younger, but he will be entering his age 30 season in 2026. Whether Ryan is discouraged or distracted, he hasn’t pitched effectively since the trade deadline. I was in Kansas City to witness the first inning shellacking he received. At this point, I don’t think it’s a wise investment to sign Ryan to a 6 year contract for $180-$200 million dollars. I would trade him to Boston for Jarren Duran. I might throw in SWR to get Payton Tolle back in return. Duran and Keaschall at the top of the batting order will give the Twins a couple of reliable catalyst’s to make for a more consistent offense. Make Wallner part of a deal to bring back a young MLB catcher. The Twins probably aren’t contenders next year. It’s probably best to deal Ryan at his highest value.
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The FalVine Draft Record - First Round
TopGunn#22 commented on ashbury's blog entry in Left Coast Bias
Not picking Jackson Merrill was a big mistake in hindsight. He’s already kind of what we hope Walker Jenkins can be. I’m just at the point that I want to be done with the Pohlad’s, Falvey and Rocco with his entire staff. I’m all in on moving on and seeing we’re a new regime can take us. It can’t happen soon enough. -
In my opinion, Wallner should be traded this off season. His BBTV is 29.5. That would equate to a straight up deal for either of the White Sox young catchers (Kyle Teel or Edgar Quero), Henry Davis from Seattle or possibly Jefferson Quero of the Brewers, currently stuck behind All Star William Contreras in Milwaukee. Wallner will always have a somewhat impressive OPS due to huis ability to draw walks. But there are younger corner OF coming that will surpass him...SOON. Get something valuable for him while he still has value. Same with Larnach. At $5 million he may be too expensive for us. But there are big market teams that $5 million would be a drop in the bucket. The Yankees don't really need him, but he could hit well there. The Phillies are looking for someone that hits better than Kepler or Marsh. Seattle could possibly be interested. We're going to have too many guys to protect on our 40-man roster so why not trade these two guys and get something that fits better.
- 44 replies
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- byron buxton
- luke keaschall
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What did the Pohlad family expect??? And the list of things to do? When have they done any of that? There's been talk the Pohlad's may still be interested in selling. I hope that's true. Because the longer the Pohlad family holds on to the Twins, the more money they're going to lose. If anyone thinks attendance can't go lower than $1.8 million...think again. Now, the team COULD make a number of excellent trades this winter. They COULD sign or acquire a young, major league catcher and 1B. They could sign a bona fide closer looking to rebuild his value (there are a number available. Several teams traded their closer to a team that already has a closer). They could actually fire their FO, manager and his entire coaching staff and chart a new course. But we all know that's probably NOT going to happen. You can only sell "Hopium" for so long. SELL Pohlad's !!! This fan base despises you.
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Very interesting article Nick, and worthy of discussion and differing points of view. With the Pohlad's still in charge of the Twins it's hard to get a handle on what they would be inclined to do. If it were me, I'd gamble on this kid. 8 years, $80-$90 million, which someone pointed out is just about what they saved in dumping Correa. So the money should be there. The counterpoint and it's extremely fair, is that we all were absolutely convinced Royce Lewis was going to be that guy. And then 2024 and 2025 happened. Now, the Twins have an interesting dilemma with Lewis. We all hope he can put together a healthy 2026, hit like our cleanup hitter and knock 30-35 HR's while driving in 100 runs. The issue then becomes, how signable is Lewis going forward with an agent like Scott Boras?? Whether it's the Pohlad family or new ownership (rumor has it the team might still be sold) I think making a statement like locking Jenkins up for 8 years is the right move. Look, if you're going to build a team around a guy, you may as well do it with a kid whose nickname is "CAPTAIN AMERICA."
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Whom Could Minnesota Twins Trade This Offseason?
TopGunn#22 replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
For what it's worth, Trevor Larnach has a BBTV of 5.1. Former top prospect for the D-Backs, Jordan Lawler has a value of 2.2. I'd trade Larnach even up for Lawler despite the overpay. Both players could probably use a change of scenery. Lawler can play SS, 3B & 2B. He's clobbered AAA pitching but has struggled against big league pitching. But he could push Lee for SS or be a contender for 3B/2B. I'd love to take a chance on Lawler. Larnach isn't going to bring back a top prospect, but I think there's no chance he's non-tendered. A guy with a .765 OPS against RH pitching who is showing small, but steady improvement will have value to quite a few teams. At $5 million, he's overpriced for the Twins, but VERY affordable to the Phillies, Yankees, Seattle, Red Sox etc... Heck, if the Cubs don't re-sign Tucker, THEY could be interested. The 2 most important players are Lopez and Ryan. With them heading the rotation and if the Twins spend $20-$30 million in FA to add a bat or two and fill out the back end of the BP with a proven closer and 8th inning guy, they just might contend. However, I think you can count on one of Ryan or Lopez to be dealt, and I'd be working on a Bailey Ober trade and replace his #3 spot in the rotation with Matthews, Bradley or Festa. I would trade Ryan for the superior haul he could bring back. Possibly an All Star OF like Jarren Duran. I'd retain Lopez to lead the staff. Jeffers is a tough call. The Twins are desperate for better catching, so how could they get better by trading their only good catcher? They would need to trade for Major League catching themselves, and I wouldn't consider trading Jeffers until I had one or two catchers on the roster. Kyle Teel is valued at 24.8. Fellow White Sox Catcher Edgar Quero is valued at 18.8. Matt Wallner, with 4 years of control has a value of 29.5. I would offer him straight up for Kyle Teel. With all the LH hitting OF the Twins have, even people who are trying to compare Wallner to Kyle Schwarber would agree he's expendable if you can get a young catcher, capable of being a full time catcher who can handle 100-120 games behind the plate. If the Twins could secure Teel, you are one step closer to moving Jeffers. I believe the White Sox would have some interest in a power hitting, cannon armed RF to add to their lineup. And they would still have the talented Edgar Quero to become their "full time catcher." Bailey Ober has a BBTV of 18.9. That's quite a lot to work with if you were trying to match up on a trade. Seattle catcher Harry Ford has a 19.1 value, almost a perfect match. But Seattle already has plenty of pitching. even if Ford is buried behind Cal Raleigh. I just don't trade Royce Lewis yet. I have to give him 2026 to show me he can hit 30 HR's. If he does, the Twins will have an interesting situation on their hands with Lewis being a Scott Boras client. Best case scenario, Lewis has a good 2026 and Boras is open to an extension (Boras and "extension" rarely are seen in the same sentence). Next best, Lewis is good and the Twins are able to trade him for a haul. I can't see Lewis staying in Minnesota if he rebuilds his value. Boras will price him out of our comfort zone. There are a host of other guys I just don't see returning who could be fringe, throw-in guys to round out a trade. Julien and Miranda immediately come to mind. Walker Jenkins and E-Rod may be coming soon. Gabe Gonzalez is pushing. Guys like Connor Prielipp and Marco Raya could be promoted. I see a lot of trades and roster re-jiggering for 2026. Each trade should be made with another trade (or two) in mind, like the Teel trade auguring a possible Jeffers trade. Or, they could just pair Teel with Jeffers for 2026, although I think getting what you can for Jeffers would be better.- 46 replies
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- ryan jeffers
- pablo lopez
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Good points Sun. The importance of a 162 game schedule really only applies to single season records. But I think there are far too many reasons that it would be better to cut down from 162 to 150-154 and make sure the World Series is being played in early to mid October like it should be and NOT in November. I would bet my house mortgage that "expansion" means an expanded playoffs. This is what has brought baseball to November playoff games. The huge revenue for teams comes with Playoff Games, not a run of the mill regular season game. Cut back to 150 games. Start the playoffs in time that if the maximum number of games is needed to get to the World Series, the games don't end in November. Remember the 1965 World Series?? Sandy Koufax didn't pitch Game #1 because it was Yom Kippur. Yom Kippur falls on October 1st and 2nd this year. The weather in northern baseball cities is still decent in early October. World Series games were once played in the daytime when the sun could keep things decently warm for October. Now all the games are played at night to maximize TV viewership. There is no way baseball should be playing World Series games at NIGHT, in NOVEMBER. I think it's inevitable that expansion is coming. It's just too lucrative for MLB teams. Realignment is just a natural by-product of expansion. The Twins are in an interesting position. They have already traded away a large chunk of their Major league roster. There is talk of further trades that may remove 2 of their 3 top SP. Lopez, Ryan and Ober. There will come a time when expansion will force the Twins to make some Major League roster decisions regarding who to protect and who to expose. I would expect Ryan and Lopez to easily be protected if they were on the team. But if they are not here and your rotation is Matthews, Bradley, Festa, Abel, SWR (include Dason Hill, Charlie Soto, Marco Raya and Connor Prielipp) who do you protect?? Expansion wouldn't just affect WHO the Twins play. It would also affect WHO is on the roster.
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Should the Twins Bring Back Luis Arraez?
TopGunn#22 replied to Matthew Taylor's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
terrydactyls...No. The main point of my trade is to get Jarren Duran, an excellent outfielder, base stealer and hitter and young LHP Payton Tolle. Casas is just a throw in. I'm not sure how much the red Sox still value Casas. He's a lottery ticket. Duran would sit with Keaschall at the top of of order and provide a dynamic #1 & #2. Duran also provides "Buxton Insurance." Even with Walker Jenkins and E-Rod on the verge of coming up, Duran plays a great CF. Duran gives us a solid bat and great defense with speed. He's the antidote for Wallner & Larnach. -
I can see the logic of trading ONE of Ryan or Lopez, but not both. I will temper my last sentence by acknowledging that BOTH Ryan and Lopez will see their contracts expire after the 2027 season and I don't see any scenario where a good chunk of the 2027 season isn't missed. If I had to choose which one I'd keep the answer is easy. Pablo Lopez. It's not that I like Pablo more than Joe. It's that with Pablo's $21 million dollar contract (which for a #1 or #2 is VERY reasonable) and Joe Ryan's $3 million dollar contract (probably $5 million or more next year) the Twins can get SO MUCH MORE in a Ryan Trade. Ryan and Lopez are practically the same age. There is the certainty of cost for Pablo, The Twins need his talent and leadership. We could contend in the "less than stellar" A.L. Central with Lopez at the top of our rotation. With neither Lopez or Ryan, we won't contend for a couple of years. I suggest the Twins offer the White Sox Matt Wallner (29.5 BBTV) for Kyle Teel (24.8 BBTV). The White Sox are rotating Teel and Edgar Quero at C & DH. That's not maximizing the production for either. I'd consider expanding the deal to sweeten the pot for the White Sox. But I'm willing to move Wallner for a position of NEED and I see Walker Jenkins and E-Rod, not to mention Gabe Gonzalez being a Minnesota Twin sometime in 2026. Maybe sooner than later. I'd trade Ryan 68.2 SWR 15.0 and Larnach 5.1 (Total 88.3) to the Red Sox for Jarren Duran 64.4 Payton Tolle 20.0 and Tristan Casas 0.0 (Total 84.4). I overpay to compensate for the zero value for Casas. The Red Sox do it to get Ryan primarily, but they get SWR to bring back a young controllable pitcher to replace Tolle. They get Larnach to replace Duran and a bat that at $5 million is a drop in the bucket to them but valuable to them at $5 million. I trade for Yandy Diaz to play 1B. His value is only 6.2 in BBTV. Cody Clemens 8.4 would do the trick. The Twins, after these 3 trades have: (In each case I've slightly overpaid to increase the probability of these trades being completed. Lineup: 1. Duran LF, 2. Keaschall 2B, 3. Buxton CF, 4. Yandy Diaz 1B, 5. Jeffers/Teel C, 6. Casas DH, 7. Royce Lewis 3B, 8. Brooks Lee SS. 9. Jenkins/E-Rod RF. (I know they both bat LH. One or the other will break camp in 2026 a Minnesota Twin. I would expect Lewis to hit like our cleanup hitter in 2026. Knowing that might not happen, or he gets hurt, he's not there to begin with. We might have Roden/Outman in RF to begin the year until Jenkins/E-Rod arrive. But consider the OF defense with Duran, Buxton, Roden/Outman and then Jenkins/E-Rod. THAT'S a BIG UPGRADE. Teel/Jeffers at Catcher is an UPGRADE. Casas might not be ready to begin the season, in which case DH is a mix and match position. Rotation: Lopez, Ober, Tolle, Matthews, Bradley. (Festa & Mick Abel provide depth, maybe BP arms). Marco Raya, Connor Prielipp and a host of other minor league arms join Sands, Funderburk, Topa and Hatch in the BP. Ryan Helsey is signed to be the Closer. With the Tigers staring at Skubal being a FA in 2027 (and the fact that 2027 may not happen or be a half season of sorts) they may have him for one more year, sign him to a HUGE extension, or also need to trade him. I think the above lineup, offensively and defensively as well as the rotation, could contend. Could they contend with that BP even if they signed a good Closer like Helsley? I don't know. Sure wish they still had Varland for the 8th inning.

