beckmt

Time to blow this thing up, need to get rid of the bad contracts but do not know how the Wild are going to do this without sending good players along with the bad contracts.

I feel the Twins should sign one of the pitchers you feel are out of reach, Britton, Miller, Kimbell, Familia, Herrera. Also monitor the trade market for relievers from teams that do not expect to content in 2019.

Issue with the Angels is not the bad contract, it is the lack of starting pitching. They will be in the same market as the Twins and Yankees, and much closer to the luxury threshold.

Also Dodgers have multiple starting pitching options, unlikely they will get into a bidding war for Ryu. They also have extra outfielders and may need or want to clear payroll space for a Kershaw extension and Manny. In the current marketplace making and executing a game play is important. Many teams are just starting or in the middle of rebuilds, Twins should be able to acquire nice assets without breaking the bank. Only about 8 - 10 teams in the AL are even planning to compete next year, National league is about the same, with the upper end reachable only if every inbetween team decides to try. (this is clubs like Arizona, LAA, Seattle, SF). Do not know if the Twins will do this, but I feel it is doable, Twins can afford to take on an expensive contract if a club like Arizona decides to retool on the fly and looks for salary relief (Greinke) Angels with the number of bad contracts they have on the books may have to do the unthinkable and put Trout on the market in the next two years to avoid having him walk for nothing to a team that is able to win. This is about being able to indentify opportunities and going after them. Twins need a big splash to help sell tickets in the next two years. Hope they FO is given the goahead to do it.

Sounds like a win-win for both sides.

Cleveland is far from untouchable and has issues of their own to fix (bullpen, a couple of position issues, what to do with expensive aging players). White Sox could be 2 or more years away (they have money and starting pitching, but earliest is probably 2020). Twins need to strike now, this is our window and to not try could leave us a perpetual second place team. One reason I suggested Danny Duffy as a trade possibility was that we could send 2 - 3 of our AAAA types and KC would hope one or two played up. Duffy will be of little use to them by 2021 - 2022 when they are ready to contend. Kipnis would be another buy low candidate, but unlikely Cleveland would send him here. Twins need to get into the pitching market early (may not work as the Yankees also need several starters, have more money, and could blow by the penalty dollar point for a few years without thinking about it, as long as they are not way over). Severino has Big Don Newcome written all over him at this time. To get piching I feel the Twins are going to have move early and offer reasonable contracts to slight overpays. Do not forget the Twins have another estimated $31 million coming off the books at the end of 2019(Gibson, Oderizzi, Pineda, Addison Reed). core will not be that expensive in 2020 and you may find a couple of them do not make it. This should be sustainable for a few years. Let's go for it.

Appreciate you taking time for the comments, just do not trust Gibson, and do not think at this juncture, Twins would be able to offer a contract that he would accept rather than try FA.

Most of these players where from Arizona, which does not have money, in fact has a money crunch this fall. Other pitchers do not know, but Dodgers have many extra starters, and Boston has several players due raises.

Outside of Pineda (if he has a good year) do not want a long term committment with any of Gibson or Oderizzi after next year.

Corbin may have been a bit high, I was guessing as starting pitching is a hard commodity to get. If you have forgotten Gibson, Oderizzi and Pineda will all be free agents after 2019. Twins need some sure things in the rotation and not all kids in 2020. All kids may work, just do not like to bet on it.

I think Alomar jr or Espada. Twins need a manager to connect with the Latin players, and this may work. It is worth a try. Both are good baseball men, but do not know philosophy of this front office.

With the changes the ERA's of the starters will have to be in the mid to upper threes to compete.

Depends on the money you want to spend. They will have to be FA signings with the view of Pineda, Oderizzi and maybe Gibson will be gone at the end of 2019. Twins offense could be better than Cleveland's if the players develop and hit more than they did this year. Bullpen will also be better than Cleveland's as do not see Cleveland spending a huge amount to fix the pen.

This is more a wish list, but will show how the Twins can proceed if they decide to spend the money. Mauer Retires Many of the lower end 40 man list is released or not offered contracts. Signings Corbin 5/110 Ryu or Evoldi 4/60 - 70 Herrera - 3/42 One or two more RP types mid range 2/15 each Oderizzi traded probably would have to absorb part of contract - other choice would be Oderizzi + Kepler for a decent starter and sign AJ Pollock 5/100 - 110. (This also protects the Twins against Buxton not making it). Sign a second baseman or SS or a 1 - 2 year contract until Lewis arrives (or another middle infielder). 2/12 - 14 This gives the Twins a decent starting lineup plus pitching Catchers - Castro, Garver 1B Austin 2B FA or Polonco SS Polonco or FA 3B - Sano OF Rosario, Pollock, Cave or Rosario, Buxton, Pollock Bench Garver Austiddo, Cave or Buxton, Adrianza Pitching SP Berrios, Gibson, Corbin, Ryu or Evoldi, Trade or a winner of spring training battle RP May, Rogers, Herrera, Hildenberger, FA1, FA2, Drake or loser of young starting pitching battle Payroll Depending on extention signings around $130 - $150 million (talking of adding 60 - 80 million before arbitration signings) Have at it.

Let's do this by the numbers. 1. Is he better than any of Cleveland's top 4 starters. Answer - No 2. Should he be in a playoff Rotation - Answer No He needs to be signed as a backup option, but Twins will need to do better if they wish to beat Cleveland in 2019. If this is a sort them out year then Oderizzi is fine, but there are several mid to better level FA's this year, Twins need to find one or two of them.

Odorizzi and Rosario seemed high to me, but do not totally know the market. Twins need to take care of the core and that means signing Rosario and Berrios to extensions before they get too close to free agency. I would look long and hard at whether I would tender Oderrizi at that rate, my guess is the Twins will and see what happens. They can cut there losses in spring training or with a trade if better options appear.

I am hoping the Twins extend Rosario and Berrios adding between 15 - 20 million to the payroll next year. Plus adding some top line relief arms to the picture. That is where the $90 - $100 million payroll is coming from. Do not expect the fill in middle infielder (unless Escobar) will be that expensive.

Agree we need to pony up for one of the top relievers, not sure it is Britton I want. There are several though, so Twins have choices.

I have outlined in an earlier post how the Twins stack up with a minimalistic approach to next year. This is my attempt to show what will happen with a mid range payroll - looking in the neighborhood of $100 million. Departures: Mauer - retired Santana and Morrison - bought out $2,000,000 total Not offered contracts - Forsythe, Petit, Magill, Belisie, Slegers, Busnetiz, Duffey, Gimmenez, Gaterol - This should clean up a lot of 40 man space. It is possible some of these might be retained and see if they can be traded, most have little or no value. Reenstated to the 40 man Castro, Mejia Added to 40 man Thrope, Gordon, Wade - they are a couple more that may be close Jay is the one I am questioning, but am almost sure a bad team would take him in the rule 5 if not added. Try to group and trade to a rebuilding club for a better starter - Gonsalves, Littlel, Moya, Curtiss Possible others not offered a contract Field and Grossman Roster Catcher - Castro Inf - Sano, Polonco, Austin, FA either SS or 2B spend around $10 million a year (this means we are taking from close to the top of the pile (after many) Outfield - Rosario, Buxton, Kepler Bench - Garver, Autudillo, Cave, Grossman, Adrianza DH - rotation of non starters Spend for players - around $30 million $35 million if Twins can sign Rosario to a longer term contract (expected for this scenario). Starting Pitching - Berrios, Gibson, Pineda, Oderizzi, Stewart/Fa/Romero - spend $32 million counting $8 million for year 1 of multi year Berrios contract. Not counting trade or FA which could push this to around $45 million Relief Pitching - May, Rogers, Hildenberger, Drake, Mejia, FA1, FA2 spend $30 million - counting at least 1 top end FA reliever and a second very good 2nd tier reliever. This is not counting trades - expecting more than 1 to send some depth pieces with potential to a rebuilding club for a #3 type starter or a very good reliever who will not be needed on a rebuilding club. I am expecting Twins will pick this path - I may be an optimist.

It seems like the Aaron Hicks message has not been received here. Buxton and Sano need to step up, but giving up on them too soon and selling low is a recipe for disaster. It is also a good way to get fired. If these two players do not produce, we are back to a rebuild in place if not worse.

Assuming Mauer is done, and even if he isn't, I can see Grossman having a role on this team. I can also see Wade having a role on this team(same type of hitter). Declaimer: I am not a big fan of swing and miss types. Baseball is changing and I am willing to admit, maybe swing and miss is not as bad as the bullpens are getting so much better so hitting the 3 run bomb had more value now.

I'm sure the better results for pitchers in Rochester than in Chattanooga had a lot to do with the pitching coach being let go. Interesting on what this means for Tyler Jay. He needs to be added to the 40 man this often season or exposed to the rule 5 draft. Expect some bad club will take a flyer on him if exposed.

Molitor was dealt a bad hand this year, no fault of his own. Comments I have seen said this move was planned last week when Pohlad didn't block it when brought to him. This has some silver linings: 1. The FO is now on their own, Pohlad probably did not like this, but the FO now is totally responsible for the package. They have about 2 years and if the Twins are not contending, they will also be looking at pink slips. 2. The feeling the young players who had the farm system ranked in the top 3 for 3 to 4 years in a row, where not progressing. This is probably the major reason Molitor was let go. It is easlier to replace the manager than the players. 3. Lack of accountability. Do not know what went on behind the sceans, but it seemed like the better players where not punished for their mistakes. 4. Maybe we will see better pitcher management now that Molitor is gone. Maybe he was more resistant to change then we know. Molitor's overuse of the hot hand, and he was slow to react when a reliever hit a bad stretch, had a lot to do with it. Hildenberger closed for longer than he was effective in that role, and he did not move either Pressly (before he was traded, or May into the role until several failures where noted). 5. He seemed to be outmanged by better managers, this is a perception issue, but his record in one run games was abysmal. Next manager will be judged on the strides made and this will be one very telling measurement point.

If Joe decides to retire, I think Jake would be a viable candidate. He was ranked as the best of the Twins minor league managers before he left. And he left to be closer to his family.

Jake Mauer, good internal option who left. Outside, maybe someone from the Cubs or the Astro's.