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beckmt

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Everything posted by beckmt

  1. beckmt
    This is not counting the number of probable doubles Buxton turns into singles and keeps runners from advancing, saving runs. Or the extra outs the pitcher has to get, because your defender does not make a play where others should. Your post is almost like defense does not matter, I have seen the simulation run in stratomatic baseball about 30 some years ago. The number of extra outs and runs this player gave up put his club into the 5+ runs against category every game. That is unsustainable in baseball (or you win about 60 games). Yes, you can hide bad defense at some positions, but the middle of the diamond will cost you a lot of the time. Defense is more than the number of hits allowed, it is also how many of those hits are for less bases than your poor defensive player will allow, this keeps double plays in order or at least requires more than one more single to score the runner. Baseball stats take range into effect, but do not know if they calculate how many bases a batted ball should get and how many hits it takes to score a run with a premium defender at the position. In the infield, you also have to include balls knocked down preventing other base runners from taking 2 bases instead on 1. These are big differences and I do not know how much of this is calculated in the runs saved category.
  2. beckmt
    No! NO!!! NOO!!!! Gibby is on the wrong side of 30 and when he loses a 1 or 2 off his fastball, he will be quite hittable. If you want this route, tag him at the end of the year. Much safer route and you get some compensation if he leaves (and you can do this to more than one starter if you are worried).
  3. beckmt
    If you want to sign either of those guys to a minor league contract, may have to wait until just before spring training or during spring training. Those guys will probably wait until close to spring training to take a minor league deal. You still have about 5 starters that have pitched in the major leagues last year, most are ticketed for Rochester. Would hate to wait until next year to see what we have, because next year you will almost certainly need 2 - 3 of them.
  4. beckmt
    I think Vasquez is a wild card piece and will be with the Twins. Magill I do not trust and Twins will need more than one multiple inning reliver. Twins may need two more multiple inning guys.(or maybe an opener). Can see where the Twins roll with current staff, think tactically this would be an error. White Sox could decide to try and fill the vacuum with some high level additions and we could be looking at the Yankees problem, needing to win over 100 games to win the division.
  5. beckmt
    I believe this would be the following. 1. Strike would start after the 2021 CBA expires. (if authorized by the union) 2. Players who are not free agents after their contract ends for 2021, would still be owned by the team they were on in 2021. These players who are on strike would not be paid. 3. Players who are free agents are just that, they would not be paid. 4. Players under contract terms for 2022 and beyond are the issue. As far as I know this has not been resolved(at least since 1995). These players could say they are going to report at the standard time, idea being to convert this to a lockout of these players and these players could then sue for breach of contract (though MLB still has the supreme court exception to a lot of these rules, but under a different court this may or may not be upheld, and it is a major threat to the owners if they lost this exemption.) This is why I do not feel the strike would last long into the next season, because losing this exemption is worth a ton of money. But this is very unknown territory, and if you lost this exemption, you could start a new baseball league. Also think the minor leaguers will want some protection and compensation changes which will also be a issue because they are not part of the union. Interesting area, because by the time this issue comes up the Supreme Court may be very anti-union. Be aware this is a very gray area, as it will also affect like professional people like IT with how much is owned by the company and what is the employees.
  6. beckmt
    Twins have no money on the books I believe after this year. The issue with the strike could be a reason for most teams not writing contracts into 2022. That issue could be if the players in a strike would have to be paid because they have a signed deal.
  7. beckmt
    What you are seeing with the almost certain strike after 2021, most teams do not want to write contracts longer than 2021.
  8. beckmt
    I feel that Harper will wind up back with the Nats, Machado is an interesting candidate, because Boras wants top dollar and his market is slipping badly. Boris will still get an overpay as market slips and more mid market teams enter. Might well be either a long term contract with multiple op outs for both sides, or shorter term 2- 4 years with an op out and a high AAV, like $160 for 4 years with an op out after 2.
  9. beckmt
    You can pencil in Mejia or any of the other twins extra starters last year for that last spot. We just need to see what we have before we do any signings that will block spots, Perez and Buch are the only two who will interest me at all, and that only if you feel the Pineda is too much of a risk to not have a backup plan.
  10. beckmt
    I am in favor of using our depth this year to sort out 2020. Twins have about 5 to 7 starters for one spot. Let's find out what we have, still have faith that maybe Stewart will figure it out.
  11. beckmt
    Biggest thing about this is the more and better minor league talent you have the more chance some of it will succeed.
  12. beckmt
    This looks fairly realistic. Assumes the Twins keep a couple of players and some move on by their choice. This is only of the home grown products and my expectation is that one or more will burn out before reaching here. Biggest bust factors would to me be Jeffers and Rooker. Many of the others are not far enough along in their careers to be anything more than a guess. but that is the fun of this.
  13. beckmt
    This could be good or bad, bad for the Twins if Buxton only hits the minimum end of his talent . I am much more concerned about the upper end and if Buxton comes close to his upper end he will give the best of his career with another team.
  14. beckmt
    Kirloff will most likely become a first baseman if Rooker does not make it and Sano can stay at third. Worst case is he becomes a corner outfielder with Kepler in center and Buxton as the 4th outfielder. Not this year, but can see the Twins move an outfielder for relief pitching (or starting if the price is right).
  15. beckmt
    I feel we should be locking up (if we can) both Berrios and Rosario, with the next name up Kepler if he breaks out a bit. Longer term Buxton and maybe Sano, but will have to see how 2018 goes as right now I'm sure both their agents feel like this would be selling low.
  16. beckmt
    You make a great point. Did not realize there were other ways to cheat going to way back when. I guess when you consider it, the lessor quality in the earlier era and lack of relief pitching like now makes all this a moving standard. (or a double standard depending how you want to phrase it). Perry was a case I would have had issues with, since he would not have been nearly as good with doctoring the baseball(and that was against the rules). Maybe I am a purist, but am coming to realize that in this era stats will never be as good and if anyone is to get in standards will have to change.
  17. beckmt
    There is a feeling on mlbtraderumors that Boras will get the Washington owner to go overboard for Harper. He has done this before. According to mlbtraderumors last Washington offer was 10 years for way more than $300 mil.
  18. beckmt
    Buxton Polonco Sano Rosario Cruz Kepler Cron Castro Schoop This makes it tough to use One out relievers for more than 1 batter.
  19. beckmt
    The biggest value of Max is that he is a viable CF option if Buxton flames out. Twins have a number of 1B/OF coming and Buxton needs to put it together before Twins have to make a decision on whether Bryon's ceiling is that of a 4th outfielder. Think Max will beat the 2.6 WAR only because if Buxton gets off to another very slow start, Twins FO will have some difficult decisions to make. I agree with the poster above who feels long term Max will be better than Eddie, but the next two years should tell.
  20. beckmt
    PED's are a difficult subject as noone knows he good the player would have been without them. This is just my take(and in no way a justification for what they did). I feel Clemens may well have had an HOF career (albet shorter) without the PED's, but I saw his stuff early on and it had that potention. Bonds and Arod both transformed themselves into manmountians from their early career to what we saw later. That was hard to ignore(and also hard to tell how much this affected their numbers). So it is much more difficult to let those players in as they may have been very good instead of great.
  21. beckmt
    Nice to see a couple of Twins prospects this high on the list. Both could be here next year with some chance (mainly for Rooker) of appearing this year. That is why Cron could well be here one year and Austin may be gone at some point of time(though like most, I would like to see if he can make it at the highest level), as Rooker and Kirloff could be trade chips to get high level pitching (or Kepler/Rosario if you prefer that route)
  22. beckmt
    Lewis would have to be #1, with Berrios my #2 and Kirloff #3, Buxton #4 and Graterol #5. Interesting finish. Only other thing I could see is if Cruz is on the list and in the top 5 does that mean Buxton did not make the list. My guess is that Cruz is not official when this list was made.
  23. beckmt
    There are signings that can be done at this time. Would like to see them sign Herrera, think more like 1 year for 7 - 8 million and an option. Or a lower base with more incentitives and a option. Worse case a couple of Twins farmhands make it at the highest level and Twins not making the playoffs, you flip him for a good haul. Best case is he solves the closer role and becomes part of solution, and you may have to QO him for the third year. He is still young enough. Allen has a little too much mileage on his arm for me. Too high a risk unless he can get down to the 5 - 6 million range.
  24. beckmt
    Options are not normally part of these type of contracts. Hope this one works out, but #4 starter is low if Pineda comes back near what he was. Have more hope for him in the second half of the year than the first. As far as the revolving rotation door, Twins seem to already have made that decision on that is the way they are going.
  25. beckmt
    Expect Javier to be the big mover this year. Also expect this list to look much different next year. Do not know if Cron was the correct pickup, but going into 2019 with Austin as the main option would have been difficult. I hope Austin turns out, but his swing may have enough holes to be difficult to fix. Gordon is a difficult call. He still ranks as a prospect to be a major league player. It is starting to look more like a moderate floor with the ceiling being a slightly above average major league player. This is not bad, since he will have a career, but he is not the player to be a leader on a good team.
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