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LastOnePicked

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Everything posted by LastOnePicked

  1. LastOnePicked
    For the foreseeable future, the Twins won't be able to win a weak AL Central division and then be totally unprepared for competition in the playoffs. That's a good thing. If they win another division title over the next five years, they'll have to earn it. 2022 will be interesting. This FO has stated their desire to retool and compete next year. One of two realities will become pretty clear by June: they were right, and it'll be fun to watch new free agents, rookies and veterans from 2019-20 get fired up for competitive baseball again OR they are unable to field a team that can keep up, and will be buried in the division pretty early on. I'm betting that they won't sniff an AL Central pennant chase for years. I don't think this FO has what it takes to retool, and they've given away too much talent that could have played a big role here in 2022-25. But I'm hoping I'm wrong.
  2. LastOnePicked
    Fair point. I think, for me at least, it's not so much the specifics of this case but rather that the FO seems to have whiffed big-time on some other talent evaluations. To my thinking, they were wrong about the FA starters they brought in, wrong about the Rule 5 guys they lost, and wrong about some trades in their regime. They could have misevaluated Gordon as well, and the Twins will need SS depth in 2022 (in fact, they needed it this year, too.)
  3. LastOnePicked
    I think you're probably right about Baldelli here, though I would have loved to see Gordon get more chances at SS. He seems to have surprised the team with his promotion, grit and play this year - he may have a few surprises left. But you're wrong about calming down. Twins fans watched our young talent (Gil, Ynoa, Baddoo, Wade) bloom elsewhere in 2021 - we needed a young hero here, and Gordon's doing what he can to deliver.
  4. LastOnePicked
    Good post, but I politely disagree. The way this FO evaluates talent, the "one of our 10 good pitching prospects" that they give up will become far better than anything they get back in such a trade. I would welcome a Kepler trade, and I always thought he'd make a good Yankee. But up-and-coming contenders looking for an offseason trade don't typically need the kind of guys we'd have to offer. With the exception of a good catcher.
  5. LastOnePicked
    Thoughtful analysis - I appreciate all you put into this. Would be fascinating to compare this with our market and division competitors. It seems to me that the large number of times we see "Aggressive" or "Reach" here is an indication that this FO thinks they are smarter than the average MLB bear. Though the results so far just don't back this up at all They don't draft well, and that's a MAJOR part of the talent pipeline for a mid-market team. They also bleed talent in Rule 5, they don't sign FAs well and their trades are a mixed bag at best (sellers: OK, buyers: terrible). Can someone please remind me why so many on TwinsDaily are eager to keep this duo at the helm?
  6. LastOnePicked
    This is a really good take. I wanted to say that Kepler was my bounce-back pick, but he had a terrible Spring Training and acted like he was a star who was just taking the time there to tinker around. Instead, his season was pretty much a long extension of his spring. He doesn't seem curious enough to make adjustments, and established MLB pitchers have completely figured him out. Here's hoping I'm wrong. With Morneau's support as a mentor, I'm hoping Larnach bounces back in a big way in 2022.
  7. LastOnePicked
    "Unfortunately, the Twins lost two players who have been impactful for their new organizations. They were lucky not to lose Jose Miranda or Jovani Moran too. However, they did well in recognizing the need to protect Bailey Ober." Going 1-for-5 wouldn't typically keep a player in the majors, so not sure why it would keep an executive in a major league FO. Good article, but it certainly dredges up some 2021 pain ... and highlights my deep skepticism over whether these guys should be making these evaluations for our Twins moving forward.
  8. LastOnePicked
    Let me add a second to the "Thank God" comment. I realize that there are much bigger issues in the world, but I appreciate the little bit of good news here for Ryan. Come back in 2022 with a chip on (not in) your shoulder, Joe.
  9. LastOnePicked
    What role did Cave play in those titles that a replacement-level free agent, or LaMonte Wade even as a rookie, couldn't have provided? It's just so unwise to trade a promising pitching prospect for a 4th outfielder.
  10. LastOnePicked

    Saddest sports city

    LastOnePicked commented on glunn's blog entry in Blog glunn

    "All of that said, if there is such a thing as karma -- and I believe that there is -- the negative attitude of fans may be having some effect." Gee, way to blame the victim, buddy. Just to be clear, these "negative fans" have been shelling out tax dollars and hard-earned recreational bucks to support these teams and house them in state-of-the-art facilities. All this despite a total drought of championships. I think it's more likely exactly the opposite. Minnesota sports fans tolerate failure in ways other fanbases don't, which may mean that FOs and managers/coaches don't feel any great pressure to produce results here. Midwestern culture typically requires one to be even-keeled and humble about expectations. That could be playing a role here, too.
  11. LastOnePicked
    This is the best sentence about this FO I've yet seen written. Being generally sharp but unsuccessful (or even unlucky) isn't enough to keep these kinds of jobs, in my opinion.
  12. LastOnePicked
    But here's the thing that concerns me: the skills required to do this (acquire more talent than you lose, sign effective free agents, and make postseason-boosting moves at the trade deadline) are the exact skills this duo seems to be missing. They had an open window in 2019-20, and they had absolutely no positive impact on the outcome in the postseason. Is it really all that scary of a proposition to give new people a try? There's a lot of hope going around, and I hope all that hope is well-placed. But I haven't seen any evidence that this is the FO duo to get us over the hump and out of the postseason slump. Quite the opposite.
  13. LastOnePicked
    The Hicks and Cave trades are good examples of the differences between a top-tier and second-tier MLB club. In each case, the Yankees assessed areas of organizational strength and used surplus prospects to acquire high-upside players who were sold low. Pretty clear how both of these turned out for the Twins, despite different FO staff at the helm. One wonders why Falvey and Levine can't do the same with Rooker, Jeffers or Larnach, or couldn't have done so with Wade or Baddoo. But it's these kinds of moves that separate the best from the also-rans.
  14. LastOnePicked
    Thank you. And yes, we've already had three major Twins Daily posts about how the FO deserves more slack and patience, which I find a little bit funny. To be fair, I also find it fairly laudable and noble. There is something to trying to see the best in others and hoping that something good will come out of something bad. But I do wonder when this seemingly-endless patience for failure is gong to run out around here. And I do kinda wonder if the heat that Yankees fans put on their FO doesn't at least sharpen their moves a bit and keep the team generally competitive. We often perform according to the expectations others have for us.
  15. LastOnePicked
    Based on the way folks often talk about Sano, he could make my top 3. He's not at all the player once hoped for but he has still put together a season with some decent moments. Thielbar #1. Another gutsy season from a guy who was retired. Heck, I even think Polanco is underrated. We're witnessing Twins historic greatness (for a contract steal) and lots of folks don't seem all that impressed.
  16. LastOnePicked
    Depends upon their record against the Yankees. That's kind of a joke. Though, more broadly, what kind of development do we see in our pitchers? What do they do with Buxton? How tough do they play against contenders? What FA signings do they make? How do they manage the 40-man roster? That will have a lot more impact on my opinion than any particular record. I expect absolutely nothing next year - you don't lose an entire starting rotation (and your best hitter) and come back the next year a contender. Or probably even a 82-80 team.
  17. LastOnePicked
    This is the HUGE red flag I have with this FO. It won't matter how good your farm system is if you can't evaluate who to keep and whom to unload. They have put this team in an MLB-ready talent deficit for 2021-22 and this wasn't even the result of going all-in at the trade deadline during their playoff years. They lost these players for absolutely nothing - feeding talent to our competitors. My perception is limited, and could be wrong. But it seems to me that the infrastructure changes they've made to the organization are probably what any new FO would have done to keep up with the times, and their internal assessment mistakes don't seem like the kinds of blunders most FOs would have made. The Giants, for example, have absolutely fleeced this FO in trades. And I even think it's okay for fans to at some point make something clear: playoff wins matter for keeping your job here. The failure to make a postseason run is beyond ridiculous at this point. No, not all of those losses are this FO's fault, but they own a good chunk of it now, and with a more solid farm system and much higher payroll than their predecessors had. Failure comes with consequences at some point, regardless of how much a team's ERA has improved.
  18. LastOnePicked
    In agree. Two truths are at play here: 1) pitchers should not have their livelihoods impacted by human error. Even the best umpires get 5-10% of ball/strike calls wrong. Unacceptable. Baseball is a game of inches (or less), and precision tools are needed. It makes sense that Duffey is angry. 2) for over two decades, the Twins have played with a loser's mentality. It's bigger than Rocco and the current staff. When the pressure is on, the team folds. 0-18 in the playoffs, and a .205 winning percentage in Yankee Stadium is the outcome. They're not a big-boy team, and they need to figure THIS out as they retool the rotation. It seems like part of this is that we fans just don't demand that this change. We accept and excuse poor results, time and time again. We're midwesterners - we're often humble, understanding and we don't expect all that much. And not all that much changes. This was one dumb game in a lost season, sure. But this one pretty much exemplified the fault line of this franchise.
  19. LastOnePicked
    Nice that we still got a taste of Twins playoff baseball even in a non-playoff year, That loss would fit right into the streak.
  20. LastOnePicked
    This is right where I am. I'm not currently calling for their jobs, but I don't think they're a top FO and I think there might be better out there. Way too many unnecessary mistakes - many of which did not require a crystal ball to sense a bad outcome. Generally poor free agents signings outside of Cruz, and abjectly terrible - TERRIBLE - at adding talent for a playoff run. And postseason winning percentage for the teams they've assembled? .000. Not acceptable. I'd still like them to do well, and to make good on their goals here, but I don't understand the odd loyalty many seem to have to them at this point.
  21. LastOnePicked
    In terms of specific individuals? No idea. I didn't even know who Derek Falvey and Thad Levine were when they were hired. My only point was that with the rise of analytics in baseball, and the expansion of coaching opportunities for former players and even women, certainly there are some very sharp folks involved in the game who are looking to take a spot at the head of an MLB club.
  22. LastOnePicked
    I'm excited for Petty as well. Could be very good. But I think he might struggle with this part, based on his draft day interview.
  23. LastOnePicked
    Maybe Jose Miranda can just hop in the same taxi from St. Paul to Minneapolis? C'mon, Twins, you're always talking about the need to save money!
  24. LastOnePicked
    Falvey and Levine are going to get at least another year (assuming one or both don't cut-bait-and-run for the Mets job), so I wouldn't worry about it. I've softened my stance a bit over the last few weeks, but I do think it's important to remember that if they ARE fired or they DO leave, there are many other qualified candidates out there for these positions. There's a wave of analytics-minded and game-experienced candidates emerging in baseball. Pohlad would likely use the same search firm that brought Falvey here to find them. And it's possible that another FO team might even be a bit better with signing FA pitchers and the internal evaluation of prospects. But I'm content to bring on another "Falvine" year in 2022. Let's see if their blueprints can result in a pitching-strong annual contender. I don't expect much in 2022 with a rebuilding squad, but the deadline trades look helpful and the farm system might be on the cusp of yielding some great Twins.
  25. LastOnePicked
    Fitting. This season's been giving us the finger since opening day.
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