LastOnePicked

Martin and Woods-Richardson are fairly decent prospects. That said, Martin is likely no better than Akil Baddoo and Woods-Richardson is likely no better than Luis Gil. In short, with a better FO, we could have had our cake and eaten it, too. I don't see this FO spending $20M more wisely than a Berrios contract. So it's a tough question to answer. With a top-tier FO staff, then I might grudgingly accept that you're right. With the FO we have? No, this move is not likely to pan out for the Twins nearly as well as it will for the Jays.

I appreciate the frustration, and I feel it, too. I don't think it's hostility, though. I think it's indifference. This FO seems more interested in making their mark on an MLB team than they are in what the Twins specifically mean to the region. They come across as robotic in press conferences and pretty overly-convinced of their baseball business acumen. Players seem to be numbers first and people second. Now, this might not be fair. They might actually want to build a winner here. They might actually be right - the only path for continued success is to turn this team into the Rays of the north, From that perspective, losing Buxton, losing Berrios, missing out on the emergence of Baddoo - none of that matters. What matters instead is the formula: x-type players + y-type players + z-type coaching = success. The problem is this: that ain't the culture of the Midwest. We take awhile to warm up to people. We like success stories. We like to make a guy "our guy" over time. We know Buxton's a "potential liability" - we don't care. We wanna see that man overcome all the injury adversity and we want to see him light up Target Field in late October. We want to see him fulfill his arc here. We want the story. And if it means that we get it, and we go wild with joy, and then the team fades away for a few years, so be it. We had the moment. We had our guy. We had it all. So far, with Falvey and Levine, we got nothing. A year of a lot of "bombas" - that's about it.

My thought is this: teams know that this FO has painted themselves in a corner. Anyone expecting a "big haul" for Buxton is probably fooling themselves. And I like Joe Ryan, but Joe Ryan ain't Nolan Ryan. Joe Ryan will likely max out as a #3 starter at the very best in his career. A Joe Ryan-type for Byron Buxton trade is a disgustingly huge steal for some other team.

This is the thought that stings. Really stings. Want this to be a place that feels like home to everyone who makes a home here. Might not be, and if so, we need to change. And if we can't, we really do need to think of ourselves as a AAA city, with maybe unpleasant but short stays for Latino and Black players as they look to make a career elsewhere. Cruz's comments seemed to indicate a good and loving stay here. I hope that's what all of our guys experience.

Excellent response. The Twins will never see another player with the raw potential and potential impact of Byron Buxton. Never. Byron Buxton isn't a cog - he's a game-changing HOF-caliber player. And the chance to sign him for his prime years in a deal that certainly wouldn't break the bank? What a gift! Yes, there's risk. Injury history has been nothing short of tragic. Could all add up and knock him out of the game. Or, he could be resilient as heck, tough as nails, and just on the cusp of making his mark permanently on the game. Who on Earth wouldn't want to invest in that?? Since the 2000s began, teams like the Twins NEVER get a chance at having these kinds of players in their prime. This is the textbook definition of moderate risk and high reward ceiling, As some poster noted, you won't get anything better for him in trade than a Larnach or maybe a Martin. Guys we already have. Guys who might play MLB well, but guys you'll never tell your kids about years after they're gone.

"There’s no denying that this front office has done a great job establishing a strong culture and organizational structure." Um, can I deny this? Great article, but I would actually like to question this assertion. Basically, have they? What does "strong culture" mean here? Their teams aren't particularly tough, they don't play fundamental baseball, young players don't play particularly well here when they start and homegrown players now don't seem to want to sign here. Plus, they don't evaluate talent well, and have lost a ton of value in prospects for absolutely zero return. I see this as on often-cited reason why we're supposed to be patient with their moves, but I do not see it. What about this organizational structure is so strong?

My thoughts exactly. This FO just doesn't seem to get that very promising young players sometimes are far more ready for the show than their analysis suggests. I expect they won't protect him, and he'll be lost.

Thoughtful analysis ... of a tragedy in the making. Man, this has been an ugly day in Twins Territory. Wasn't this offseason supposed to help us forget the agony of 2021? Look, I don't like this FO, and I don't trust this FO. But this explanation is plausible: "Buxton has no interest in signing an extension in Minnesota." If it is, then the least this FO can do is really dig in about why. Is it personal preference, or is it that Buxton felt disrespected or slighted here? If so, the organizational norms or practices that led to his discontent have to change. Immediately. Period. And if he is traded, then they have to drop the ridiculous notion that they're "retooling." Admit the folly, ask the fans' forgiveness for a lost window of opportunity, lay out an organizational plan and a timeline and ask the fans to join in on a rebuilding journey. They can even talk big and claim that, with a retooled development staff, it'll be the shortest rebuild in team history. But come clean. Be honest. Treat fans like intelligent adults. Most of us are ... myself excluded.

It's an understanding, thoughtful defense. To me, the mistakes are just too darn numerous and too darn costly, but I understand your thoughts here. I'm really hoping they somehow prove worthy of your praise and loyalty. Fans like you deserve to be rewarded.

Very likely that the core of solid young players they inherited (Berrios, Polanco, Sano, Kepler, Buxton, Rosario) will be reduced to nothing more than Polanco, an ineffective Kepler and a handful of magic bean prospects in a so-so farm system by the start of '22. And several top Twins prospects launching promising careers elsewhere. Oh, and zero playoff wins to show for it all. Unreal.

It also might be great if people asked themselves if the Twins are really a low-revenue team. At least, according to the data I could find, it looks like they're a mid-revenue team. Wasn't that the whole point of a subsidized new stadium just a decade ago? So it isn't ignorant *at all* to assume that if the Twins were serious about winning they would pursue a mix of lower-cost, high-impact prospect development strategies (like the Rays) as well as a few higher-cost signings of all-star quality players (like the Yankees). Particularly homegrown, fan-favorite players who play at a position of the team's greatest need. That's not "bitching" ... that's wanting the team to assert some intent to win. But I'm very much on board with the suggestion to search for a new PBO and GM. Spot on.

Okay, Doc, but isn't it funny how the Twins don't end up "looking good" on most moves they make under this FO? At some point, we may have to realize that it's more than just bad luck or bad looks.

When the Twins can demonstrate either the ongoing MiLB developmental successes of the A's or Rays OR those team's competitiveness on the field and consistent postseason runs, then maybe these comparisons will ring a little more fair. The Rays are now perennial winners. The As hang in there year after year in surprising ways. The Twins fall short of expectations repeatedly.

It's always amazing how Falvey and Levine can say so little while using so many words. Corporate to their core. Translation: "Yup, we're trading Buxton. We blew the negotiations, and we now have to try and get what we can before the season starts." We will be the Baltimore Orioles of the AL Central for the next decade thanks to the shrewd moves they've made over the last few years.

Exactly this. 1000% this. We seem to have been fed a PR line since the trade deadline, and any remaining trust is either broken or near the breaking point.

This point seems inescapable to me: the Twins are not a serious MLB team. They are not serious about keeping top talent, and not serious about winning a WS title. They are muddling through year after year ... and the few fans that remain are mostly okay with it.

First of all, I liked your take better than mine. I'm just %#@! mad. You seem less so, and I appreciated your post. But, you don't offer a deal like this because you think Berrios will still be worth 18M in year seven. You offer a deal like this because you think he'll be worth $30M or more in the first few years on the contract. Possibly even a WS title. Sometimes, you gotta extend a contract to secure the talent near-term. The Twins are unwilling to do this, but it might be what it takes to build a winner. We'll see how it works out for Toronto.

What are they going to say that would be of value? They won't give a candid response. They clearly didn't even tell the truth about Berrios' intention to hit free agency. If Pohlad is unhappy about this, he should say so. He has to agree that this was a very reasonable contract extension and would have helped this team extend a window of contention. He should think seriously about making a change in the FO staff. Immediately. Or, if Falvey/Levine wanted to sign Berrios to exactly this kind of extension and were rebuffed by ownership, they should say so publicly and let Pohlad take the heat. They should also think about leaving if they're working for a boss who tells the fans one thing about a commitment to winning and his admin staff something else. Either way, what's happening at 1 Twins Way these days absolutely stinks.

I consider this a fireable offense. That's a completely reasonable contract for a very durable ace (and one of our very few homegrown pitching success stories). Twins should have matched or beat that offer easily, and Berrios is certainly worth more to a "retooling" team than the underwhelming prospects they received in trade. Shameful. We were told by this FO that Berrios wanted to test his value in free agency, and that he wouldn't accept an extension. Now we know that wasn't true. We were also told by Jim Pohlad that the Twins "absolutely" could afford to keep Berrios AND Buxton long-term. So much deception and misdirection. This team continues to embarrass and disappoint. I love Twins baseball, but it might be getting time to walk away. It's going to be too hard to see this happen with Buxton as well.

I strayed too far from Nick's post, and this comment brought me back. "Patience reaps rewards" is one of Nick's takeaways, and I agree. Folks keep mentioning the prospects at the upper levels, but we seem to be forgetting that, just like a once-great FA pitcher in surgery recovery, prospects usually aren't very good in their first few years. In fact, they're often terribly disappointing. We just don't have a solid core that few good new parts can be plugged into. We're a last place team in weak division with holes all over the place, Whatever the FO does this offseason, the rewards probably aren't going to materialize in 2022.

Completely agree, and I look forward to yours and others thoughts as moves (hopefully) get made. You brought up another good point, which is that this FO might view "retool" differently than I do. They might view "retool" as just a larger changeover in parts on the MLB-ready roster. I guess I viewed a "retool" as putting in a few new strong pieces to an already-successful and already-running machine. But, as we saw last year, this machine ain't working anymore. Whatever the Twins are now, they aren't contenders in a more competitive AL Central. 2021 proved that, and they already got worse for 2022 before the season even ended (losing Cruz, Berrios and Maeda). If the team were a car that we intended to win us a race, most mechanics would probably advise us to get real, scrap it and salvage the few good pieces we could. Which is probably why I favor a rebuild, especially if they whiff on a Buxton extension. At that point, it would be clear to me that they won't be willing or able to afford enough quality, established MLB parts to get this organization to be first over the finish line again anytime soon.

I liked your response, and I think a number of your points are sharp and fair. The quote above is where I disagree most strongly. Almost all of the players you list here are still prospects. They are not "here." They have not arrived as regular, reliable, solid major leaguers. We hope they will develop and have sustained success, but as we've seen with even great prospects like Buxton, that process of being a part of a core can take years, But we'll see if the FO was sincere about a retool for 2022 contention. Their additions - or lack thereof - this offseason will likely clarify this by the time Spring Training starts. I wouldn't mind being wrong, but I don't think I am. We'll have to wait and see.

You can guess the answer, though. I think we all can. Twins will pick FAs in January/February and hope for bargains. And, sadly, that's what they probably should do. I never bought into this "retool not rebuild" PR hype for a second. You don't retool for contention by trading away your very effective and durable #1 SP ... particularly when you don't have even a #2 or #3 behind them. By all accounts, this FO was shopping darn near everyone at last season's deadline. That's a hallmark of a rebuild, not a retool. The greatest pain of last year wasn't that they fell apart, because that sometimes happens to mid-market MLB teams. The greatest pain was that this collapse signaled the closing of a 5-year contention window that brought us absolutely nothing in terms of postseason success. We all suffered through the slumping years only to have nothing to show for it a decade later. But it's time to face facts. We now have a team with poor fundamentals in the field, low overall speed, relatively poor contact at the plate and abysmal velocity and poor K-rate at the mound. We enter a season with virtually no starting rotation, with the exception of a few modestly promising rookies who most agree could at best one day stabilize the back-end of a playoff rotation. We have no consensus all-stars, and no players who are widely considered the best in the league at their position. We need to be clear: no mid-tier SP free agent signings are going to change this for 2022 and probably not for 2023. Chicago is strong. Detroit is opening a window of contention. Why waste top FA money at this point? I just get a bit sad seeing so many TD folks get their hopes up, and I blame this FO for their lack of candor. They say that they're retooling, but their actions since July paint a more honest picture. This team is in very tough shape, and there's no reason to be a big player in free agency until they have a new core foundation on which to build. I just wish they'd have the guts to tell fans the hard truth, which might keep the faithful from hanging on to the news of every top FA SP signing this offseason. It's just not going to happen here.

I agree, Mike, but if we can't get 1-3 of those pitchers on our staff, I'm interested in a winning Plan B. This might be it, though that means we need a staff chock full of guys who are great the first time through a lineup.

True, but also laborers vs. owners. Baseball is a game, but also a workplace, and the workers need fair compensation. And, conversely, owners need to be able to ensure operating costs and long-term stability. I'm with Doc on the revenue-sharing aspect. When we see the same big-market teams signing the top FAs and making the playoffs pretty much year after year, it diminishes league competition and fan interest. It kinda feels like a two-tiered league at this point. Conversely, a salary spending floor is also smart. Put a stop to the multi-year payroll slashing for rebuilding teams.