LastOnePicked

Wow. Maybe the high-rolling Dodgers just want us to develop him for them in the 2020's free agent market. Any chance we can keep Ryan on staff for minor league free agent signings and trades, but hire another co-GM for major league signings and larger personnel moves?

Love it. This painful season is now, in even one small way, marginally improved. Now if the Twins FO could just stop punching fans in the face ...

Outstanding post. Just outstanding.

This is as good as it can be said. While a few of the faces may have changed, the team's culture seems exactly the same. I don't harbor much hope for our highly-touted prospects if they're entering an organization that cannot develop talent. There will be no free agent signings, and there's no reason to think that Ryan, Gardenhire or any of the staff will be changing going forward. Jim Pohlad has the personnel he wants, and seems to have very little interest in the team overall (I'm still puzzled that, during the height of the trade deadline, Pohlad admitted that he hadn't talked to his GM for nearly two weeks!). I think 2013 is going to look an awful lot like the foreseeable future for this club. I hope I'm wrong, but I think the Twins will be the AL version of the 2000-2010s Pittsburgh Pirates. Stagnant, mismanaged, and hardly worth watching.

Kid'll probably hit .350 down the stretch for 'em, with 3 dingers. That's just how things are going this year for ex-Twins.

It won't happen. And it's too bad, because weakening the team right now is actually a net positive with regard to draft pick order. I wouldn't trade Perkins or Pelfry, but I would certainly give Morneau a chance with a contender (and I'd do this for peanuts -- if for nothing else than to let Colabello and Parmalee play out the season). I'd also trade Burton and Duensing. A weakened 2013 club has a better chance at being a stronger future club -- particularly for a team that doesn't sign free agents.

Thoughtful stuff, but, if I had to predict, I'd say that the goodbyes are premature. I expect all of the above to be Twins through the end of 2013.

I wish I felt the same way. Ryan says this an awful lot, but seems entirely incapable of making the changes to the organization that might make this happen. I'll be stunned if the Twins reach the postseason again under his second GM tenure, and this "July nightmare" scenario is one of the many reasons.

Sano's approach might be problematic, but so too is the organization's. First Arcia allegedly misses a call-up because he didn't run full out, and now Sano is benched for showmanship. Have the Twins ever heard of talking to their young players, and then trusting them with the next step? This continues to smack of an out-of-touch, old-school organization.

It was weird to read Reusse’s “Twins Should Show Mercy” article, because we took such radically different paths to come to the same conclusion. Reusse seems to paint Gardy as some kind of victim of poor organizational management, but I see him as part and parcel of that poor management. I found myself wondering if Gardy’s good relationship with the local press has won him some additional cover for the team's poor performance? I’m completely unpersuaded by the “Gardy’s been given nothing to work with” argument. The man has managed a Cy Young, multiple MVPs, Gold Glovers, former and current All-Stars, a host of high-level prospects and top-quartile payrolls – all without a single AL title to show for it. It seems to me that smarter managers have done a lot more with even a little less. While it’s true that even the best of managers would find it hard to win with the 2011, 2012 or 2013 starting rotation, Gardy isn’t without some culpability. I have to wonder why Gardy hasn’t been vocal about taking his allegedly supreme managerial talent to another club if the Pohlad’s don’t start opening up the purse strings for a front-line free agent starter? Or to have pulled off a critical trade during the 2000’s playoff runs? His complicity and deference to ownership have not always served the team well, and I see that as another reason for change. I hear Gardy or Terry Ryan profess their “accountability” for this mess over and over, but I have no idea what that means. Neither are accepting pay cuts, or offering demotions, or considering leaving the organization, or even changing their approach to match crafty, moneyball-minded teams like the As and Rays. What else could accountability mean? And for all those who say that Gardy ought to have a chance to manage the soon-to-be-champions 2015 Twins, I can only ask, Why do you think the future is going to be different than the past? If, on the off-chance that a majority of our upcoming prospects become successful big-leaguers, and the Twins manage to win a future AL Central flag, they will still have to face the 2015 Yankees or As – or some other powerhouse with deeper pockets, more advanced systems or better pitching. How will the results be different when the philosophy in the dugout remains exactly the same? In short, firing Gardy should not, and would not, be some kind of public relations move. Winning brings people back to the ballpark, not handing out pink slips. Firing Gardy should be just the first step in forging the Twins Way 2.0 – a new blueprint for another decade of mostly successful season runs, but with the added steps to make the team truly competitive for a league, and even possibly a national, title.

It was weird to read Reusse’s “Twins Should Show Mercy” article, because we took such radically different paths to come to the same conclusion. Reusse seems to paint Gardy as some kind of victim of poor organizational management, but I see him as part and parcel of that poor management. I found myself wondering if Gardy’s good relationship with the local press has won him some additional cover for the team's poor performance? I’m completely unpersuaded by the “Gardy’s been given nothing to work with” argument. The man has managed a Cy Young, multiple MVPs, Gold Glovers, former and current All-Stars, a host of high-level prospects and top-quartile payrolls – all without a single AL title to show for it. It seems to me that smarter managers have done a lot more with even a little less. While it’s true that even the best of managers would find it hard to win with the 2011, 2012 or 2013 starting rotation, Gardy isn’t without some culpability. I have to wonder why Gardy hasn’t been vocal about taking his allegedly supreme managerial talent to another club if the Pohlad’s don’t start opening up the purse strings for a front-line free agent starter? Or to have pulled off a critical trade during the 2000’s playoff runs? His complicity and deference to ownership have not always served the team well, and I see that as another reason for change. I hear Gardy or Terry Ryan profess their “accountability” for this mess over and over, but I have no idea what that means. Neither are accepting pay cuts, or offering demotions, or considering leaving the organization, or even changing their approach to match crafty, moneyball-minded teams like the As and Rays. What else could accountability mean? And for all those who say that Gardy ought to have a chance to manage the soon-to-be-champions 2015 Twins, I can only ask, Why do you think the future is going to be different than the past? If, on the off-chance that a majority of our upcoming prospects become successful big-leaguers, and the Twins manage to win a future AL Central flag, they will still have to face the 2015 Yankees or As – or some other powerhouse with deeper pockets, more advanced systems or better pitching. How will the results be different when the philosophy in the dugout remains exactly the same? In short, firing Gardy should not, and would not, be some kind of public relations move. Winning brings people back to the ballpark, not handing out pink slips. Firing Gardy should be just the first step in forging the Twins Way 2.0 – a new blueprint for another decade of mostly successful season runs, but with the added steps to make the team truly competitive for a league, and even possibly a national, title.

It's time. Letting Gardy go through the motions for the rest of the seasons sends a bad message to fans, as well as the young players making their way through their first season. This team desperately needs a shift in organizational culture. That said, I don't see it happening. Jim Pohlad doesn't allude to any deep interest in the sport or the team in interviews, and has repeatedly backed Gardenhire for perceptions of previous success. "Change" is not a value of the Minnesota Twins -- and aversion to change is a hallmark of insular organizations. I'll also add that I'd be very surprised to see Gardy manage with another team. I think other clubs are a little savvier than the Twins, and might see his flaws as a coach more clearly than folks in Minnesota. Plus, he's a "Minnesota guy through and through" as some have noted here, and I think he'd be hesitant to join another organization -- particularly one that would demand knowledge of sabermetrics or, well, accountability for on-field success. Looking forward to a new manager in the dugout, but I imagine I've still got quite a long wait ahead of me.

Another great idea from St. Peter and crew! While I'm not on staff, here's a few more they ought to consider: Want a cup holder with your seat? $10 Will you be bringing in your own Twins cap, rather than purchasing a new one from the gift shop? $5 Access to heat lamps on cold days? $15 Need a cup with that beer or pop? $5 Bathroom break? $1 per visit/$3 for a full game license Caught a homerun or foul ball and want to take it home? $20 Memories of a time when my Dad and I could get downtown early, hang out in the Dome and watch the Twins take BP? Priceless (but he never could have afforded an extra $30 to do it).

Not sure I agree that this will be the last time expectations will be low for awhile. With clearly increased competition in the AL Central (finally), it may be possible that the 2013 Twins will be a better team over 2012, but with a worse record to show for it. On the plus side, when the team is ready to compete, they won't be sailing through a weak division -- and they might emerge stronger for having had to do more to earn a division pennant. But the earliest I'd look for this would be 2017.

Nice post, JimCrikket. Sadly, I don't think you'll get what you, and all of us, are looking for. The Twins have a clear, no-punch-back policy. While they all care, and they're all professionals, this organization doesn't foster a fighting attitude or spirit. In fact, any attitude at all is usually frowned upon. The face of the Twins isn't nicknamed "vanilla" for nothin'. They'll play a safe season, with low expectations, and moderately improved play over 2011 and 2012. Yawn.

Just for fun, I've gathered up my looking glass, my Ouija board, my Magic 8 ball, and put together a sneak peek into April and May. As I've felt with nearly everything I've predicted for the Twins in the last two years, I hope to heck I'm wrong. Be curious to see what you all think: April Pitching: Starting pitching will be borderline atrocious, sucking any possible enthusiasm from the casual fan base. Worley’s WHIP will be well above 1.60 and Pelfry will be alternately marginally effective and profoundly bad. Hendriks will be terrible, solidifying impressions that he’s strictly a AAAA pitcher. Correia will actually be the surprise, posting an ERA just barely above or below 4.00 and a few surprise wins bolstered by strong offense on the days he pitches. Ryan, in an interview, may declare premature victory in his signing. The bullpen will also have its bumps, including two blown saves by the otherwise-strong Perkins in the closer role, leading to the beginnings of rumblings from the fanbase to consider alternatives. M & M Update: To the shock of many, Mauer will begin several games at the start of the season hitting 2nd, and he’ll perform statistically strong there. Gardy, however, will look for every routine out as a sign that Mauer is better slotted in the 3-spot, and Mauer will hit there the rest of the season. Morneau will struggle to hit above .250 with 2-3 home runs, leading some to wonder if back stiffness is the culprit, or if the change in batting coach is to blame. He may visit the DL. The New Kid: Hicks will patrol the outfield well, but will struggle to hit for average, ending the month just above the .230 mark. Gardy will raise every missed relay or slight rookie mistake at the plate in postgame interviews, adding that “Hicksy’s learning.” With Mastroianni playing well, running well and hitting for average, articles about “CF competition,” and Hicks and “service time,” will begin to pop up again. Summary: Defense is noticeably improved over 2013, but pitching is surprisingly worse. Poor play against the Tigers in the opening series in their series sweep sets the tone for a bad month (Twins officials will maddeningly use the cold weather start as a stock excuse for the team’s poor play and low attendance). Record: 9-17 Likely DL Candidates: Morneau, Pelfrey, Plouffe May Pitching: Deduno returns to the rotation in late-April/early May, and will quickly lead the starters in K’s. However, his walk rate will continue to frustrate Gardy and cast doubt on his longer-term status with the organization. PJ Walters and Cole DeVries will also be starters in the rotation, offering some hope of stabilizing the back end of the rotation with so-so, but consistent, results. Many in the blogosphere will begin to call out Ryan for returning the Twins nearly to their 2012 rotation disasters, with the noticeable exceptions of Worley (still struggling, but showing slight improvement) and Correia (starting to get knocked around). Hitting: With Parmalee hitting around .260, Gardy begins to platoon Ramirez more frequently in RF (if he’s not covering for an injured Morneau). Both prove to be serviceable, if unspectacular (5-6 HR between the two of the by the end of the month). Plouffe returns from the DL and retakes 3B from Carroll/Escobar and hits very well, leading all to hope the injury bug has been squashed for good. Hicks improves at the plate somewhat, but talk continues about whether or not he should “get some AAA at-bats,” as GM Ryan suggests in an interview. Mauer leads the AL in OBP. Willingham keeps to a good pace: .275 BA with 8-9 HR over the first two months. The Mood: A rift between Gardy/Andy and Worley becomes apparent, as frustrations about the bad start linger into late spring. Dozier’s solid play and competitive-but-supportive attitude start positioning him as something of a clubhouse leader, and his outstanding play at 2B clearly stands out as a highlight of the first two months. The fans that remain attached to the team are calling for Gardy’s firing more loudly than ever, while Ryan defends him, saying that “we can’t let a cold start and some injuries be the reason why we push this guy out the door.” Ryan clarifies later, conceding that his evaluations of players and coaches are ongoing, and that things “have to get turned around here pretty quickly.” The Skinny: The record improves, but not by much. Tears in the 2013 blueprint are now painfully obvious, and it appears that some of the young arms in the system may be getting their shot sooner rather than later. Gibson, unfortunately, continues not to be ready for a big-league start. The noticeable successes of Gomez, Hardy, Ramos and even, to a degree, Slowey keep the spector of the Smith era at the forefront of many fan rants. All eyes are now firmly on the play and development of the top prospects in the minors, as division contention is, by all indications, clearly out of reach. Record: 21-34 Coming Up in May: June and July preview (in which I predict we see a characteristic summer hot streak for the Twins that helps them flirt with .500, tragically swaying Ryan towards hints of a contract extension for Gardy).

Just for fun, I've gathered up my looking glass, my Ouija board, my Magic 8 ball, and put together a sneak peek into April and May. As I've felt with nearly everything I've predicted for the Twins in the last two years, I hope to heck I'm wrong. Be curious to see what you all think: April Pitching: Starting pitching will be borderline atrocious, sucking any possible enthusiasm from the casual fan base. Worley’s WHIP will be well above 1.60 and Pelfry will be alternately marginally effective and profoundly bad. Hendriks will be terrible, solidifying impressions that he’s strictly a AAAA pitcher. Correia will actually be the surprise, posting an ERA just barely above or below 4.00 and a few surprise wins bolstered by strong offense on the days he pitches. Ryan, in an interview, may declare premature victory in his signing. The bullpen will also have its bumps, including two blown saves by the otherwise-strong Perkins in the closer role, leading to the beginnings of rumblings from the fanbase to consider alternatives. M & M Update: To the shock of many, Mauer will begin several games at the start of the season hitting 2nd, and he’ll perform statistically strong there. Gardy, however, will look for every routine out as a sign that Mauer is better slotted in the 3-spot, and Mauer will hit there the rest of the season. Morneau will struggle to hit above .250 with 2-3 home runs, leading some to wonder if back stiffness is the culprit, or if the change in batting coach is to blame. He may visit the DL. The New Kid: Hicks will patrol the outfield well, but will struggle to hit for average, ending the month just above the .230 mark. Gardy will raise every missed relay or slight rookie mistake at the plate in postgame interviews, adding that “Hicksy’s learning.” With Mastroianni playing well, running well and hitting for average, articles about “CF competition,” and Hicks and “service time,” will begin to pop up again. Summary: Defense is noticeably improved over 2013, but pitching is surprisingly worse. Poor play against the Tigers in the opening series in their series sweep sets the tone for a bad month (Twins officials will maddeningly use the cold weather start as a stock excuse for the team’s poor play and low attendance). Record: 9-17 Likely DL Candidates: Morneau, Pelfrey, Plouffe May Pitching: Deduno returns to the rotation in late-April/early May, and will quickly lead the starters in K’s. However, his walk rate will continue to frustrate Gardy and cast doubt on his longer-term status with the organization. PJ Walters and Cole DeVries will also be starters in the rotation, offering some hope of stabilizing the back end of the rotation with so-so, but consistent, results. Many in the blogosphere will begin to call out Ryan for returning the Twins nearly to their 2012 rotation disasters, with the noticeable exceptions of Worley (still struggling, but showing slight improvement) and Correia (starting to get knocked around). Hitting: With Parmalee hitting around .260, Gardy begins to platoon Ramirez more frequently in RF (if he’s not covering for an injured Morneau). Both prove to be serviceable, if unspectacular (5-6 HR between the two of the by the end of the month). Plouffe returns from the DL and retakes 3B from Carroll/Escobar and hits very well, leading all to hope the injury bug has been squashed for good. Hicks improves at the plate somewhat, but talk continues about whether or not he should “get some AAA at-bats,” as GM Ryan suggests in an interview. Mauer leads the AL in OBP. Willingham keeps to a good pace: .275 BA with 8-9 HR over the first two months. The Mood: A rift between Gardy/Andy and Worley becomes apparent, as frustrations about the bad start linger into late spring. Dozier’s solid play and competitive-but-supportive attitude start positioning him as something of a clubhouse leader, and his outstanding play at 2B clearly stands out as a highlight of the first two months. The fans that remain attached to the team are calling for Gardy’s firing more loudly than ever, while Ryan defends him, saying that “we can’t let a cold start and some injuries be the reason why we push this guy out the door.” Ryan clarifies later, conceding that his evaluations of players and coaches are ongoing, and that things “have to get turned around here pretty quickly.” The Skinny: The record improves, but not by much. Tears in the 2013 blueprint are now painfully obvious, and it appears that some of the young arms in the system may be getting their shot sooner rather than later. Gibson, unfortunately, continues not to be ready for a big-league start. The noticeable successes of Gomez, Hardy, Ramos and even, to a degree, Slowey keep the spector of the Smith era at the forefront of many fan rants. All eyes are now firmly on the play and development of the top prospects in the minors, as division contention is, by all indications, clearly out of reach. Record: 21-34 Coming Up in May: June and July preview (in which I predict we see a characteristic summer hot streak for the Twins that helps them flirt with .500, tragically swaying Ryan towards hints of a contract extension for Gardy).

Gardy's quotes even about the simplest of reasons why the Twins lost a meaningless Spring Training game to the Red Sox today (Minnesota Twins: Eduardo Escobar's base-running blunder irritates Gardenhire - TwinCities.com) are, to me, further proof that he can't keep his emotions in check, and that he hasn't learned that discretion is the better part of valor. Say what you want to the players, Gardy, but shut up to the media -- because you can only make things worse by trying to make yourself look good and your players look bad. Again, though I have some respect, I'm looking forward to his replacement sooner than later.

There seem to be some very positive, competitive players on the team. I enjoyed Mike Bernadino's stories about Ramirez and Escobar, and Darin Mastroianni is quickly becoming my favorite Gladdenesque player. Was also very pleased to see Pressly win a spot here. Of course, pulling for Hicks in a big way. I've got plenty of guys to cheer for -- I hope that Gardy will let them show a little spit, fire and even chrome.

Not all that much choice. My main concern with Worley is that he'll feel too much pressure to be our ace. We don't have an ace. It's not our year for an ace. It's not our year to take on Detroit. I'm okay with that. We just need him to go out and do his job, be competitive and enjoy developing with some of the other younger arms. Even the worst day of major league baseball has got to be better than the best days at 90+% of other jobs.

I don't rely on national sports writers to diagnose the hometown team's problems or prescribe their cures. I respect Gardenhire, perhaps even more than I've let on, but you put us in the AL East during that same period of his tenure, and NO ONE would be defending his managing style at this point. Gardy has been the beneficiary of a very weak division (just imagine if Detroit and Chicago hadn't choked down the stretch during some of those division title years), and we've seen how far he can take a team, even with Cy Young winners and MVPs on the roster. Many of us would like to try someone who could take a team farther.

Kirsten, thanks so much. This team's attitude, chemistry and culture is fascinating to me, and you've given those of us who couldn't listen in a real treat!

Finally, some auspicious news for the team. In order to break our curse, they must be named Morris and Viola, they must be baptised beneath the center field batter's eye, and pine tree saplings must be planted in their honor. I'll prepare the ceremonial fires!

Yup. I think Vern was hired about the same time as Shurcan Pickum.

Excellent post. I wonder if you could factor in any change in coaching or GM positions. I'm also hoping that you'll write a follow up after the season to evaluate each approach, and perhaps look again in 2014. While each team needs a little luck, I'm willing to bet that the most successful rebuilds will be the result of smart work at the helm.