stringer bell

Yea "if ifs and buts were candy and nuts, we'd all have a merry Christmas". The Twins don't have much speed and they don't have much contact, so hit-and-run and straight steals are pretty infrequent. The threshold for successful base stealing is right around 75%. With the exception of Castro and Buxton, there aren't any guys who will be successful that often, at least running at will. Taking the opportunities when they are given can and should be done. If a pitcher is particularly slow to the plate or a catcher is inaccurate or slow releasing the ball, marginal runners like Julien, Gordon and Wallner should go for it. If a team is paying zero attention, maybe Correa or Farmer can steal a base.

Regarding platoons--I get that managers want to get players in situations where they have the best chance to succeed. Kyle Farmer is a guy who has always hit left handed pitching better than right, so if he's in the lineup for 60-70 games, most of them should be against left handers. However (and this is @Riverbrian's point), pulling a superior hitter because a southpaw is coming in ultimately does more damage than good IMHO. The Twins figure to have four left handed hitting guys in the lineup regularly (Kepler, Wallner, Julien and Kirilloff) and will have Farmer as a guy who should be playing against left handers (perhaps adding Miranda or somebody like Donnie Barrels). Starting two of the four lefty hitters and resting two makes sense to me. That would give each of the lefty hitters somewhere between 20 and 30 starts vs lefties and wouldn't be a strict platoon for any of them. Kepler was decent vs. lefties last year, Wallner, Julien and Kirilloff were not. Neither was Willi Castro BTW. Farmer, Castro and Miranda (Solano etc.) have enough versatility that any of the four guys could be rested with a decent defensive option replacing them.

With all the deferred money, isn’t Teoscar’s contract worth less than the 1-year total payout?

2023 Willi Castro was superior to what Nick Gordon has accomplished in just about every facet of the game. If the Twins use Willi as a utility man, rather than making him a regular or semi-regular I don't see much reason to keep Gordon. Of course, injuries and ineffectiveness can change the perspective in a hurry. As far as Martin vs. Gordon--they're both basically 2B-OFs correct? With Castro on board, it would be important which guy could hit left handed pitching (probably Martin) and which guy could adequately play center field (unknown). Also, I like Martin's chances of being a difference-maker on the bases much more than Gordon's. I know Gordon's sprint speed qualifies as only average. I'm not sure how much faster Martin might be, but his minor league resumé features a lot of stolen bases.

Pro football playoffs start tomorrow and thus far the Minnesota Twins have done next to nothing to improve their roster. They have added three right handed relief pitchers, none of whom are guaranteed to make the Opening Day roster, and added zero position players. Pitchers and catchers report in less than five weeks. While I am confident the Twins will make an acquisition or two, the most I can hope for is someone who makes tChe starting rotation and a capable right handed hitter. Here is my guess for an Opening Day roster with comments: Pitchers: Starting rotation (5)--López, Ober, Ryan, Paddack, Varland. Bullpen (8)--Balazovic, Winder, Alcalá, Funderburk, Thielbar, Jax, Stewart, Durán. Comments: This is assuming health for all players. I expect Balazovic makes the team or is traded, either for a non-roster prospect or another out-of-options player. I picked Winder to go north mostly because he's had the most major league success of the candidates. I doubt Staumont will be both effective and healthy and Jensen is a lottery ticket. I think it is now or never for Alcalá as a Twin. Catchers: (2)--Jeffers, Vázquez. Comment: Barring injury, this is the tandem. I guess there is still a chance that Vázquez is traded. Infielders: (7)--Kirilloff*, Polanco, Julien, Correa, Lewis, Farmer. Miranda. Comment: Farmer is still likely traded before Opening Day. Without an acquisition of a right handed hitter, bounceback candidate Miranda makes the team as a platoon 1b with the ability to play third base. Polanco is still on the trade bloc, as well. Outfielders: (4)--Castro*, Kepler, Buxton, Wallner. Comment: The oft-injured Buxton is listed here as the center fielder. The Twins might still bring is an alternate like Michael A. Taylor, If the price is right, Kepler could be traded. *--Infielder who can play outfield or outfielder that can play infield. This roster has no room for either Trevor Larnach or Nick Gordon, who IMHO are both major league talents. Injuries could well provide a roster spot for one or both. I also think a strong spring could move Austin Martin in front of Gordon, because he hits right handed and has more speed and would project to be a good on-base guy. Spring training will probably determine who is in the bullpen. If Staumont is truly healthy, he could be a really good pickup. Matt Canterino is a wild card. He could be a rotation candidate or temporary bullpen arm or he could be too rusty and spend the bulk of 2024 in the minors. Adding a starter is probably priority #1 for the Twins, which could move Varland to a bullpen role or to St. Paul. IMHO, this roster has much more depth on the position player side. If the Twins aren't going to sign a significant free agent, they probably will trade from position player excess to get more pitching. If Farmer is traded, Castro is the backup at short and third . If Polanco is traded, Julien is the regular at second, and one of Martin or Gordon probably is on the team as a backup second baseman and center fielder. I'm assuming good health for Kirilloff, as well. The Twins lack of activity in adding a first baseman seems to indicate they think a healthy AK will be ready for the season.

Thanks for the information. Sounds like the Twins made a shrewd move with Alcalá.

All but Gordon have agreed to terms. It looks like the Twins saved a few bucks.

mlbtraderumors.com says that it is a mutual option. Almost never happens.

Per mlbtraderumors.com, Jeffers and Thielbar have agreed to terms on contracts (Thielbar $3.225M and Jeffers $2.425M).

I'm a big Kirilloff fan and I believe that a healthy Kirilloff is a better hitter than either Polanco or Julien. We've only seen glimpses of AK healthy, but he can hit. I also believe AK can and will be above average at first base. The advantages of being over six feet tall and left handed give him a leg up on others that have played there in the last two years.

Bailey Ober has been a gold mine for the Twins. As a late-round draft choice with a considerable injury history, it looked like a major league career was far off while he was idled during the COVID year. Since 2021 he's logged 57 starts with an ERA+ of 116. I have emphasized that since the COVID year, Ober's arm has been sound. His injuries in 2022 were to his lower body and he managed to avoid any lost time due to injury in the most recent season. The Twins have seen fit to limit his innings, often pulling him from starts where he's been very good or even dominating. As @chpettit19 mentioned, I don't see him as any more prone to a disabling injury than the other members of the current Twins' rotation. I see him as a candidate to exceed the threshold of 162 major league innings in 2024, as much as Joe Ryan. I am curious if the Twins Daily faithful think that Ober's injuries in 2022 were some sort of red flag that will limit his innings in the coming years. To me, since he was able to rehab (no surgery IIRC) and the lower body problems didn't recur in 2023, he is past this and we can worry about an arm that has been uninjured since 2019 (again IIRC).

Without looking at stats, I would have picked Posey. With the numbers presented, it is a really tough call. I don't think there's any question now that all three guys will be in the Hall of Fame. I wish the Twins had had more success in post season, which is one area where Mauer falls quite a bit short of the other two.

I'd like some closure on a TV deal. I'll do what I have to in order to get as many games on TV (or streaming) as I can. I just want to know what to do. I'm fine if the whole thing goes to mlb.tv, especially if there are no blackouts, but I would just like to know and also know how much it will cost me. As far as the arbitration cases go, I'll be interested in all of the numbers. Willi Castro is also an interesting case, in that he broke out last year after being non-tendered after the 2022 season. In comparing Castro and Nick Gordon, Gordon's lower salary and longer period of team control might sway the Twins toward keeping Nick. I've maintained all off season that a big part of Farmer's value (competent shortstop) is mitigated with having Lewis and Castro on the roster and Lee available for recall in St. Paul. If Correa were to go down for weeks or months, the Twins have someone other than Farmer there to fill the gap. To me, this makes Farmer more of a luxury.

Ober pitched on 9/24 in 2021. IIRC, he was placed on the IL so that there was room for SWR to get a start on one of the last days of the year. I would say any injury Ober had was akin to Joey Gallo’s foot injury in September of 2023. He made his debut in May of 2021 and the mjnors didn’t have their first games until May 4. I would say he was healthy for virtually all of 2021.

Bringing back Cousins, extending Jefferson and keeping Hunter would pretty much shoot the budget for all but draft choices, yes? I can't see the team being competitive in that scenario. I don't know if the Vikings can compete with Detroit, Green Bay and Chicago, let alone the other top teams in the NFC. Cousins is an above-average QB, but he needs a better team around him than what he has in Minnesota. Expecting him to to maintain his level of performance is a risky bet and expecting improvement is even less likely. Bringing back Cousins means they want continue to try a "competitive rebuild". I really think they should go with Option B.

AFAIK Ober had no injury in 2021. The Twins kept his innings down, but he was active until the last week of the season. In 2022 it was a groin issue (not his arm) and in 2023, there was again no injury. To me, he presents a pretty good shot to get to more than 150 innings.

Why do you think Ober is due to break down? This seems to be an expectation based on an injury history without an arm injury in quite some time.

Does Cease have more value than Sonny Gray did two years ago? I would say that he definitely does. As a matter of fact, I would think that Cease would have an equal or greater amount of value than López did when the Twins acquired him.

ZIPS and Steamer serve a purpose IMHO. Both systems try to take bias out of the projection and make realistic predictions of future performance. The more data on hand, the more likely the prediction is accurate. Injuries certainly change things--Buxton, Correa, Kirilloff and Miranda were all adversely affected by injuries last year--and they can't be predicted with much accuracy. That said, if Buxton has played in less than 100 games in eight of his nine seasons in the bigs, it has to be very unlikely that he will be active for an entire season. To a lesser degree, same with Kirilloff and Lewis (shorter careers).

Go Joe! It looks like a pretty good bet that Mauer is a first-ballot HOF. After days of thinking this is the case, I finally wrote it, so now I probably jinxed him.

I thought Trevor Larnach was the superior option to Wallner at the start of last year. His first month was encouraging, but he stagnated and was injured. I still think Larnach can be a solid MLB regular, but the clock is ticking and there’s no obvious place for him to play. I do think he and the Twins might benefit from a change of scenery. A trade for a right handed hitting corner outfielder/first baseman of equal value might really help all concerned.

“Slick” was Gardner’s nickname allegedly regarding his pivot at second base. He was not really slick beyond that IIRC.

My personal memories of Gardner were that he was kind of an East Coast version of Gardy. As a player, not blessed with an abundance of ability, but scrappy and hard working. As a manager, appreciative of the abilities of his best players, but a guy who also identifies with the role players.

The Twins have a current rotation of Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack, and Louie Varland. Only one of these pitchers has ever exceeded 162 innings pitched in a major league season (López in '22 and '23). What kind of total innings should be expected from these five guys, barring injury? Of particular interest to me are Bailey Ober and Paddack. Between the minors and majors, Ober threw over 170 innings in 2023. Should he now be a "full go" for 2024? Ober experienced plenty of injuries early in his pro career, but has been healthy two of the last three seasons. His injuries in 2022 were not to his arm, but rather to his lower body. Paddack has had two Tommy John surgeries, the most recent occurring early in 2022. He made it back on the mound for the Twins after they clinched the division and pitched very well out of the bullpen in post season. Most comments on Twins Daily indicate he should not be expected to exceed 100-120 innings this year. I don't know if medically he should be that limited. Barring a disabling injury, I don't see any reason he shouldn't approach 150 innings, but I'm really in the dark about what expectations should be for the second year after TJ surgery. Ryan has bumped up close to 162 innings both of the last two years. He was sidelined more than two weeks by COVID in 2022 and suffered a groin injury that in retrospect limited his effectiveness in the second half of 2023. Can the Twins look for him to move toward the 180 innings mark? Louie Varland isn't guaranteed a rotation spot, but has pitched uninjured since all minor leaguers were limited by COVID in 2020. If he makes the rotation out of Spring Training, can he be expected to work full-time innings if he's in the rotation. I know it is prudent to have depth pieces lined up behind the projected rotation. How much depth would be influenced by limitations the coaching staff and front office place on those projected starters.

I haven't seen this posted anywhere so I'll start a thread. Former Twins' manager Billy Gardner died January 3rd. Gardner was a light-hitting second baseman who played for the Twins in their inaugural season (1961). Gardner was on two World Series teams as one of the last men on the bench (1954 Giants and 1961 Yankees). He managed the Twins from 1981 through 1985 and also managed the Royals in 1987. RIP Billy Gardner.