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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    That was quick. 🙃
  2. ashbury
    I'm not entirely convinced our Klowns aren't from somewhere in outer space:
  3. ashbury
  4. ashbury
    I mean to say... ballgame.
  5. ashbury
    I mean to say, a Royce Lewis jack.
  6. ashbury
    I mean to say, a Josh Bell jack.
  7. ashbury
    I mean to say, a Cody Klemens jack.
  8. ashbury
    He did his job just now, setting us up for a Brooks Lee jack.
  9. ashbury
  10. ashbury
    We are way behind schedule in turning Joe Ryan and Taj Bradley into bullpen pieces. Let Rojas wait his turn.
  11. ashbury

    World Cup

    ashbury replied to Squirrel's topic in The Sports Bar

    "Be careful what you measure, because after a while that is all you will get." 😁
  12. ashbury
    I am sure that every front office has a staff member assigned to keep tabs on Twins Daily. Keep up the good work.
  13. ashbury
    As soon as someone has trade value, it means there's value also in just keeping him. It is not that I dislike Trevor but his skill set seems so redundant to others in the system and he has started costing more. Except ... he's producing right now and the other "equal or better" options keep getting dinged up. Larnach's been healthy - I don't think he's missed significant time since a "core muscle strain" wrecked the second half of his 2022 season.
  14. ashbury
    That's quite a pile. Do we really expect to find 8 ponies in it?
  15. ashbury
    I hope I'm not completely off-base but my own recollection is that there was a clubhouse scandal of some type. Anyone else share that?
  16. ashbury
    Game threads can be pretty free-wheeling, but you and I don't know each other well enough for me to give you both barrels like that. Twas meant in fun, but it wasn't taken that way so that makes it not fun for anyone. Sorry.
  17. ashbury
    News flash, the ad agency cues off of your cookies and search history. If you're a choir boy you'll get ads for hymnbooks.
  18. ashbury
    If the players' proposal to accelerate Rule-5 eligibility is enacted, teams are going to be faced with making career decisions about players who are 21. As a prospect hound of a fan, my interest will be diminished.
  19. ashbury
  20. ashbury
    There is no question that standard statistical methods can be usefully applied to baseball numbers. But do you believe Joe Mauer and Clayton Kershaw were lucky across their entire careers, compared to their fellow major leaguers?
  21. ashbury
    Basically it comes down to player evaluation. If a team's scouting and analytics are well integrated and are better than most other teams, they'll do well. In all phases, not just drafting. I'm not enough of a scout to have an independent opinion on any of these players. But if the Twins draft day personnel do have an opinion that's at variance with the seeming consensus that this is a three-player draft at the top, they'd better be right.
  22. ashbury
    Does the headline reflect the message of the video, or ought the word "to" be "from"?
  23. ashbury
    It bears repeating that the AL as a whole is in a down year with run scoring. If the Twins were in the NL there would be 5 teams above them. I'll say, though, that the "consistency" has been improved lately. Since getting shut out in Detroit on June 11 they haven't had games where the offense gave themselves little chance to win, except against the Dodgers. Earlier in the season they were almost alternating offense explosions with 1-run games, leading me to question the decent looking totals across games. As for the RISPy situations, only a Debbie Downer would look at their high BABIP and wonder whether it's sustainable so I will refrain from speculating and just say good for them, these guys are pros and trying their darndest. 😉
  24. ashbury
    A player is never as good as he seems when he's going well, and never as bad as he seems when things are down. In his first 24 games (72 plate appearances) Martin's OPS was .995. His batting average on balls in play was .415. Since then in 53 games (185 PA) his OPS has been .549 but his BABIP has been only .258. .300 has been a good rule of thumb for BABIP for a long time, but more precisely it's been more like .290 across the majors lately (.289 this season so far). I never call BABIP "luck." You put the ball in play and sometimes the fielders catch it and sometimes they don't but in every case the players are trying their best so it's nothing like rolling dice or dealing cards. Some batters maintain a high BABIP throughout their careers (Joe Mauer's was .341), likewise some pitchers can keep it low (Kershaw .275) so I consider it a certain sort of skill that is measurable. But it can represent an ebb and flow to the game until the sample size is large enough to stabilize. So for the season as a whole Martin's OPS is .664 and it's built on a BABIP of .295. which doesn't look too far outside the norms. BABIP has been an up and down factor in our perceptions of him all along the way this season, but overall it's at a level you might expect to remain stable now, though his prior two partial seasons had a BABIP more like .320 so maybe he's still got some upward movement coming to him. But his season numbers are probably about who he is at the present time. He could improve in ways outside of BABIP (cutting down Ks, raising BBs or HRs), but is getting kind of old for that kind of expectation. He is who he is by now.
  25. ashbury
    The league average for pitches per plate appearance is 3.87. Joe's this year is 4.03 and Zebby's is 3.68. Little things like this - some batter fouling off a good 2-strike pitch instead of whiffing - can alter the course of a game and with enough time a season. Joe's always run a little high in this metric. He gets to 90 pitches a little sooner than he might and the manager has to start thinking about the bullpen. / edit: I just want to add that pitches per PA isn't much of a metric for how good a pitcher is. Luis Garcia was 3.57, Justin Lawrence was 4.18. Both were terrible. Pit/PA only has bearing if a pitcher is good and you want him to face as many batters as possible.
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