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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    On a related note, Twins Daily seems to be trying to corner the market on bloggers named Cody.
  2. ashbury
    There's a Where Are They Now thread elsewhere, where you can keep up with transactions such as this. https://twinsdaily.com/forums/topic/69337-former-twins-where-are-they-now-2025-edition/
  3. ashbury
    Unless you think all farm systems are alike, there is a third dimension to consider. There's drafting (scouting) and then there's development. Maybe said prospect would have turned out just fine if the original team had kept him, but the new team messed him up. That's been the narrative regarding Austin Martin, for instance.
  4. ashbury
    Clemens turns 30 early next season and doesn't figure into any of my calculations - we've seen PeaK Kody and he's nothing more than a placeholder.. Julien at age 26 is more of a concern. I hadn't noticed this about him before: his OPS has never been below .800 at any level of professional ball. Well, except the majors, both of the past two seasons. One of Bill James's fundamental contributions was to demonstrate that minor league stats have good predictive value. He didn't have the 2020s Minnesota Twins to study, though. So I take back my recommendation to replace either of these players with 23-year old Blaze Jordan. He's probably a nice enough young fellow, and doesn't deserve to be dragged into this toxic environment.
  5. ashbury
    Take pleasure and appropriate pride in being an authentic Social Media Influencer.
  6. ashbury
    With Semien just traded, I suppose there is opportunity if Jonah decides 2026 is the time for another career year like he had with Miami. Also, with the Rangers having non-tendered Jonah Heim, they may feel deficient in the below-the-radar category of Players Named Jonah, which the Twins seem to have given up on.
  7. ashbury
    I like this line of thinking with regard to Blaze Jordan, and for me his age makes the difference compared to the other candidates mentioned. I'd look askance at his hitting after his trade, except that the steep drop in output comes based on a steep drop in BABIP to below .200 (rather than earlier success being built on .400), as you pointed out. I could see him being MLB-ready right now, and with headroom to grow into a real asset at 1B by his second year of experience. I truly don't know why the Cards would trade for somebody they knew they'd have to protect, and let two months of output dissuade them. Two qualms, which are along the lines you raised as to "something wrong" . 1) His defense seems below par but the scouting report at mlb.com shows him with soft hands but poor range, and maybe the Twins' 1B miracle workers can do something to improve his ability to go get the balls hit toward him. 2) He was a child prodigy, garnering attention at age 11 and winning longball competitions at an early age. Is that a problem? Probably not, but I would rely on my scouting staff to sniff out any signs of bad makeup in the kid's approach with coaches and/or teammates. He'd be a risky pick, but any good Rule-5 player will be, because guys with high ceilings and also high floors are already protected on someone's 40-man. Given my low expectations for the Twins' chances in 2026, I'd go with a "fun" pick in the Rule-5. I'd also go for fun by taking a Rule-5 pitcher, and I'm not sure whether I'd pick one of those first and gamble that the hitter I want will be waiting for me in Round 2, or take Jordan and then go with whichever pitcher I liked best among the second-round remnants.
  8. ashbury
    Gotta give Theo his due for suppressing that yawn during the riveting monologue. 😁
  9. ashbury
    The Cards look like they're receiving a legit starting pitching prospect. I'm not sure a team can simply buy an arm like that for $20M. So this isn't like a Josh Donaldson or Carlos Correa situation where there's negative trade value; St Louis opted to add something to the deal to get something better in return than what Gray might have fetched alone.
  10. ashbury
    They might, if the Pohlads lured them to the bargaining table with a suggestion that they could get a 5% dividend on their investment every year.
  11. ashbury
    Name This Player
    #3 on the shoulder. Gotta be Killebrew. Second choice: Kennys Vargas?
  12. ashbury
    I had an unplanned/spontaneous occasion to talk with Falvey one-on-one for about five minutes, a couple of years ago, and I think I posted about it before. I found him personable and appropriately humble. He listened to what I brought him, admitted it was over his head*, and then referred me to an appropriate underling who in turn was well enough versed to understand what I was talking about**. But then I didn't lead off by telling him "your a idot." Perhaps that's why he gave me the time of day rather than brush me off summarily. I imagine the narrative, though, will latch on to Falvey now being exposed by ashbury as an analytics fraud!!!1!!11!!!!!!!!!eleventy!! Evidence to the contrary comes and goes, the narrative lives on. * Despite the stereotypes thrown about, I don't think Falvey's got an MBA and almost certainly not as a Quant, he's not a deep-dive statistician or analytics specialist, and I expect he'd be the first to tell you so. ** Which was, for anyone about to ask me, to learn whether they were aware of the techniques used by portfolio managers when, say, allocating the investments in 401K account, since baseball contracts could be viewed as a portfolio of assets with a universe of other assets to potentially invest in.
  13. ashbury
    What's the betting line on whether he'll make it?
  14. ashbury
    This had the feel of a cherry-picked threshold of at bats. But if I use plate appearances, and even drop the threshold down to 300, Jackson still retains the crown. Fair enough. However, if I drop the threshold to 200 PA, one (and only one) other player steps in to usurp the throne. It's our own, newly claimed 40-man roster member Ryan Kreidler, with his tasty .138 BA in 211 chances at the plate. We've got 'em both now! (As noted earlier, this article isn't really about the catcher's entire past history, and explores reasons to hope he's turned a corner for real.)
  15. ashbury
    Shoulder, then Tommy John for the elbow. Seems like a bad combination. But if Effross (which sounds like the name of a local construction company run by someone named Frank Ross) can follow a path like Tyler Mahle and summon up a good season after all that, it would be a real coup for whoever gambles on him. I would rely on a combination of medical team and analytics team to tease out where the similarities are to other cases that turned out well.
  16. ashbury
    I don't remember what line of work you are in, exactly, but now you're scaring me too.
  17. ashbury
    You mean, like, in double headers?
  18. ashbury
    Huh. Trevor Larnach could be optioned to St Paul. I had not considered that. He has 4 years and 14 days of service time, so that clock doesn't run out for him until very late in the season. Trevor Larnach being paid X million dollars to possibly toil at AAA in the opposite corner to wherever Gonzalez is playing, or as once-and-future DH - that's a possibility I'm gonna have to ponder awhile.
  19. ashbury
    Neither Steer nor Larnach was dropped for nothing. I was responding to someone suggesting both were on the verge of that.
  20. ashbury
    What exactly is wrong with hot-stove discussions? Did the word "likely" in the article headline suggest someone did or should bet their mortgage? 😁
  21. ashbury
    If it turns out both got tendered (I see now that Trevor did), then the original parameters are moot anyway. 😁 A trade could still happen I suppose, but I see Steer's offense to be about the same as Larnach's, and he has (as you say) developed some defensive skills at a position of need for the Twins, which would make a one-for-one swap imbalanced unless the Reds feel really strongly that their park provides necessary upside. Trades surely are easier when the players' skillsets aren't so similar, like a AAA infielder for a backup catcher.
  22. ashbury
    Both teams can just wait until the other cuts their guy, and sign him for cheaper.
  23. ashbury
    The entire team doesn't need to out hit Larnach, to make him expendable. Just the DH. And that alone doesn't add up to a post-season berth.
  24. ashbury
    Pereda turns 30 within the first month's worth of games next season. Prospect he ain't. The only drama for him now is what size retirement benefits he can accrue.
  25. ashbury
    You're underselling Laudner by a dime.
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