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Everything posted by ashbury
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Making moves for the playoffs with Angels
ashbury replied to Brandon's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I don't think it can be tweaked quite that simply. The current waiver process (as with many roster rules) is purposely player-centric, not team-centric. The claims are all handled simultaneously. Which player goes first, for this new purpose? Ideally, the "best" one, but that's subjective. IMO the solution when there are a lot of such players is to make it more like a draft, of the kind for amateurs in June or the minor league Rule 5 draft in December. But it's not necessary to make it a public spectacle of any kind. Just that, beyond simply putting in waiver claims on players, each team must manage its current list of waiver claims, providing the league a ranked order that the league will use if there are enough players currently on waivers and there is contention for them. Most days of the year, there are only a handful of players and most don't even get claimed - on those days the new system would operate as a practical matter like it does now. But if there are lots of claims then the league runs an automated draft that day, taking each team in their priority order and assigning them the one player they put at the top of their current list of claims. The process would continue in circular order until no remaining claims exist. This preserves the principle that a team has to be serious when they make a waiver claim. If they put in 6 claims, they'd better be prepared to find room for them all, if no one else takes any. Waivers and the claims need to remain irrevocable in both directions. No farting around. The teams are already connected by databases via the league office. This would be easy-peasy, and would cut down on abuses by one team scooping up talent for September. (Assuming that the league even sees this as an abuse that harms public perception of fairness, which they may not.) -
Matt Wallner, Hit By Pitch Savant
ashbury replied to Matt Braun's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
In the fall of 2021 in suburban Phoenix, USAFChief and I shared the experience of watching Wallner get smacked square in the jaw with a pitch. There was blood, it was frightening, and I figured that would be the end of his Arizona Fall League season. Not so - a few games later he was back in the lineup, hitting just as well as before (1.000+ OPS) and I was impressed with his toughness. Obviously he was fortunate not to have had an outcome more like Kyle Farmer this season. Luck and grit combined in that instance. I''ll take the author's word for it that video of this season's HBP are all along the lines shown in the two videos, and nothing reckless. Armored elbows and feet are risky but not usually career threatening when hit. But the beaning in 2021 shows the downside to his strategy at the plate. No professional pitcher goes out there to try to hurt another player. But I could easily imagine a pitcher thinking, "oh, so you want to crowd the plate and take me deep by pulling an outside pitch, huh? How about if I give you something to think about first, and a little higher?" And then the pitch gets away, or Wallner fails in this one instance to react quite in time. I've believed in his bat since before the AFL, and more power to him and his approach to inside pitches, I guess. But I hope he really has a plan beyond "if they throw inside I'll let it hit me," and that it's been vetted by older players who have seen a thing or three in their time. Once a player has a reputation around the league, it's hard to shake. What would a frank conversation between Wallner and Solano be like, for instance? -
If the twins win the world series this year...
ashbury replied to Obsvr's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Of course it would. My beef with the FO has been about results the two seasons before the present one. A strong finishing kick to 2023 and then a representative showing in the post season would satisfy me into the next season. -
Yeah, she'd slap you if you tried.
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Balazovic got sent down to St Paul yesterday, didn't he?
- 62 replies
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- dallas keuchel
- bailey ober
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Minor League Report 8/26 Kernels Continue to Hit
ashbury replied to Matt Braun's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
The scouting report in OOTP agrees regarding his fastball but seems to think more highly of his off-speed stuff. It concurs regarding control.- 21 replies
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- andrew cossetti
- brooks lee
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You get credit for honesty.
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You may have Griffin Jax in your bullpen and not even know it.
- 50 replies
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- joe ryan
- jorge polanco
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Chuck Knoblauch scored 140 runs in 1996, a figure not approached by a Twin before or since. Greatest Twins individual offensive season ever and unlikely to be matched in the future.
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Willi Castro's "unique" skill set is that he's a competent shortstop who doesn't hit well enough to be a regular for a contending team. Sending him further and further down the defensive spectrum (CF, 3B, LF??!?) only highlights the below-average bat more sharply - there is no way a 91 OPS+ is an asset when used in left field on a frequent basis. He's currently 6th on the team in plate appearances, which means that injuries have riddled the roster and, like MAT, he is playing more than his substitute role should have called for.
- 17 replies
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- willi castro
- rocco baldelli
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Ronny Henriquez Deserves Some Attention
ashbury replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Unless Henriquez can maintain the very low .238 BABIP that he's put up in those 8.1 innings, and few pitchers can, his gaudy ERA won't hold up when he hits the majors. The majors will hit back.- 32 replies
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- ronny henriquez
- josh winder
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An arm in the outfield is nice but doesn't determine big pay days. Home run hitters drive Cadillacs. -- Ralph Kiner Singles hitters drive Fords. -- Ralph Kiner Guys with great arms but hit like neither of the above drive Ubers. -- me I like his chances to hit homers for a nice car, by the way. / no offense intended to Mr Dobnak
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With this monster game, I believe* Joey Gallo now leads the Twins in OPS. OPS, that is, for situations where his team is already in the lead. When the Twins are behind, his OPS of .574 is ahead of only Nick Gordon and (in very small sample) Jordan Luplow. In tie games, his OPS is an uninspiring .634. Don't get me wrong, because I like insurance runs. Every additional run has the probability of moving the team closer to a win. Also, it's not his "fault" that in tonight's game someone else pushed across the first run and the team never trailed. But I don't believe I've ever seen an aggregate OPS near .800 that was more misleading. And the seasonal trend has intensified. Perhaps it's is just a statistical blip, and not predictive of future performance. But I'm not so much interested in forecasting, as in looking back at the season so far and trying to understand the disappointment in the face of seemingly positive batting stats. * I haven't done the math and will wait to see the new totals when sites update tomorrow. / confirmed - his OPS when the team's ahead is now 1.041, passing Julien who dropped to .923 with last night's o-fer.
- 27 replies
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- pablo lopez
- matt wallner
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7 Triple-A Players Who Can Still Help the 2023 Twins
ashbury replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
"on the 40-man roster, giving him a chance to be a call-up" does not equate to "Players Who Can Still Help the 2023 Twins". It only means "can help the major league team not forfeit games due to not enough rostered players." 7 Major League Players Who Can Still Help the 2023 Twins Correa, Buxton, Vazquez, Polanco, Farmer, Winder, Floro. Come on, guys.- 49 replies
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- trevor larnach
- kody funderburk
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3 Stats that Define the 2023 Twins
ashbury replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Those are 3 good stats. My 3: .438 OPS with the bases loaded. This has been mentioned to death, and when you slice and dice data this way you end up with the dreaded Small Sample Size - and yet, bases loaded very often represents a key opportunity in the entire game, because if you're behind it's a chance to catch up in a hurry, if the game's close it can tip the scales your way, and if you're ahead it can ice the victory. They've had 97 such opportunities this year, so about once a game, about on a par with the league, and no team has a worse OPS than our Twins, nor fewer RBIs. If you want to define 2023, this stands out to me. Michael A Taylor leads the team with 100 game appearances, but is only 6th in Plate Appearances. This is mostly just a way of saying we miss a productive Byron Buxton in CF, but it also points up the gyrations the manager has to make with his lineup to hide MAT's bat as much as possible while trying to reap the benefit of his good glove. Byron, get well! Minnesota has 3 of the top 40 in terms of pitching starts across the majors, with 22 apiece. There are other teams with this distinction, and Washington and Toronto both have 4. But the 2023 Twins are defined by being founded on starting pitching, and for the most part the plan for the starting staff (and keeping them healthy) has proved sound. Joe Ryan going on the injured list is a potential crack in that foundation, however.- 13 replies
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- carlos correa
- sonny gray
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Twins Claim Outfielder Jordan Luplow
ashbury replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
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Are the Front Office's Jobs Secure?
ashbury replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
We joke about them as "FalVine" but they are not conjoined Twins. Assuming this season ends without a playoff win to show for it, change at the top could be made without firing them both. Two scenarios: 1) Falvey fires Levine on the grounds of accountability for 3 consecutive seasons of subpar results. This outcome assumes that Levine has had more input to the overall "vision" than we know, and for instance was the architect of the major trades and signings of the past few seasons, with Falvey merely providing budgetary approval when they happened. 2) Joe Pohlad (or Dave St Peter acting with his approval) fires Falvey and elevates Levine to the big chair, perhaps with a title only of Executive VP of Baseball Operations rather than the redundant President. This is if Falvey has been completely hands-on with every important decision, and Levine has been in effect a glorified assistant GM who ownership feels is suited to the big job. (I want to stress, Levine is a decade older than Falvey.) In either scenario we have a new GM who comes in, and Rocco's job hangs in the balance depending on whom they hire and how much decision-making power the new GM is given. New GMs tend to like new managers. Of course, Rocco could be fired if FalVine both stay on, but this thread is about change at the top. I tend to think either of these scenarios is more likely than firing both Falvey and Levine. If it works, it has a ripple effect of accountability everywhere down the org chart, without throwing the organization into months of chaos from complete turnover. Firing both means Joe Pohlad is saying, "this is my baseball team now," and I just don't foresee that. But the guesswork involves our not knowing with real certainty what the working dynamics currently are at the top, Pohlad included, and how decision making is split. Anything could happen. If we win a playoff game, probably the FO maintains the status quo. Otherwise I might split the chances into: status quo - 35% Levine fired - 30% Falvey fired - 20% both fired - 15%- 79 replies
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- jorge lopez
- derek falvey
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