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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. I'm no financial expert, but by my reading of the article the selling price is almost exactly 10X what it was 30 years ago. That works out to about an 8% return per year. By contrast, the Nasdaq index in mid-year 1993 was around 700, and today it's about 15,000, or roughly 20X (11% return - ah, the magic of compounding). If they were in it for just the money, they might have done better simply investing their millions in an index fund and have three billion-plus now - and they could be better investors than that.
  2. I'm disappointed in that, too. The documentary movie or TV series they would make about your tenure would make Ted Lasso look like the Andy Griffith Show. (Well, the homespun humor of Lasso does have at least a little in common with Griffith already.)
  3. "If healthy" seems to be the mantra for this front office.
  4. Not so fast. John Angelos still must pass a physical before the transaction can be approved.
  5. I'd pay more for a ticket to see the 76-year old musician, who I suspect still has more remaining in the tank than the soon-to-be 38-year old first baseman.
  6. Worse, they are in the bottom 8 of MLB attendance. They make the sport weaker. They serve up the dog food, but the dogs aren't eating it.
  7. Read the comments. Seattle made this trade because ownership is cheap. Nothing new under the sun.
  8. Wow! Good luck to Jorge in Seattle. He'll remain one of my favorite players. Those intense eyes at the plate! This amounts to the move I would have made. Our FO said they wanted need-for-need, but that seems hard to pair up. DeSclafani and Topa would have been a huge underpay for our guy. Prospects are fungible. You can trade prospects for need, as another step. And Gabriel Gonzalez seems to be a good get. Edit: big remaining question is the impact on the year's budget. Giants sent some money to the Mariners when that trade was made earlier, so will some of that come here?
  9. Thanks, mate.
  10. The player gives up on a speculative possibility of $100M+ career earnings like the big stars get, for a safety net of $28.6M and the potential of $50M+ in addition if that dream of $100M proved viable in terms of his performance. You'd have to be an extreme "bet on myself" player to turn down that offer, in the hopes of a quarter billion or whatever. The Tigers for their part guarantee themselves their choice of 9 years if he really pans out, those final years still well below market rate today (to guess nothing about what the market will be then) if he becomes and remains a star Presumably they really like his intangibles, and feel it's a good gamble on their part. In the very short term, the Tigers didn't cover 3B well in 2023, so he's their guy in 2024 and a possible long-term answer. If he busts, the Tigers are "handcuffed" by a mere $5M a year until the contract runs out. It's not a franchise-altering risk; nor does it get a FO fired if it goes totally bad. Worst case is barely worse than Randy Dobnak. Intriguing.
  11. Ugh. You want Jenkins to lead the league in striking out 5 different seasons?
  12. I don't see that as data, so much as letting someone more qualified than myself do the scouting for me. 😀
  13. I go back and forth on Billy Wagner. Baseball's a game for romantics. And the Hall of Fame is a hall of FAME. For me, the Hall can both recognize, and confer, fame as conditions dictate. In other words, I'm completely comfortable in throwing away some analytics, and indeed being downright inconsistent in who I want to call famous and deserving of fame, and who I don't. The post-season is one factor, helpful but not strictly necessary, that helps establish the fame needed for induction. Most players and most pitchers establish their greatness across a very large body of work. Relievers are a special breed: almost always failed starters, they establish their value in inherently small samples of work. If they do great in the regular season but then let their team down when the chips are down in the playoffs, that (for me) is a much bigger detraction to their HoF case than for other players. To the argument that the playoffs are different and the competition is just better, go look at Mariano Rivera's post-season stats. His makes for an easy Hall of Fame case. Few humans can rise to that level. But I'm not willing to give anyone a pass for not doing the job - they prepare their entire careers for those few moments, and they need to come through, again and again, to be considered the best of the best. There's no question Billy Wagner came through over and over and over again in the regular season. Still, the reduced workload of a closer makes me unwilling to complain if he never makes it in. Lots of players in the mythical Hall of Very Good have that kind of description. And Nathan's case is just a smidgen less strong than Wagner's, and then a few other relievers have cases just a smidgen less than than Nathan's. There starts to be a Harold Baines type of slippery slope. I go back and forth.
  14. How about a nice game of chess?
  15. Oh, you figured out our secret decoder ring, didn't you, Comrade?
  16. Will, just sittin' on that log, livin' his best life.
  17. Boush league signing. Ah ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha - I slay me.
  18. I somehow feel as though the target of this satire maybe isn't actually Joe Mauer at all.
  19. Holding his glove hand a certain way, to unlock more velocity or whatever, seems independent of whether he's starting or relieving. I'd still like to see him start (in both senses) at St Paul, and demonstrate he can dominate AAA batters (which he did not do in 2023) for a handful of games, and then come up when a rotation opening inevitably presents itself. Starters are too valuable. If it looks like more of the same, at age 26, then the reliever option remains open. Note that his 12 innings of relief in 2023 had results built on an absurdly low BABIP of .191 so don't expect the same stellar results in larger samples. (Louie's battle against Chapman in the Blue Jays postseason series was heart-pounding, and not in a good way.) Getting anything at all out of a 15th-round draft pick remains an achievement by itself, but that's in the past and it's not greedy to want more. Good starting is "more" than great relieving, if those indeed are our lucky choices.
  20. I was expecting a minor-league contract and invite to Gallo as well. I guess the Nationals are so bereft, they decided he would make their squad anyway and offered him the major-league deal.
  21. C'mon, he's Bubba! Clete Thomas got his moment in the Minnesota sun, Bubba deserves no less.
  22. DaShawn is safely available if needed. I think the two are roughly equivalent as MLB-ready prospects, but they offer contrasting skill sets and I'm content with letting events sort themselves out, since both are profiling as 27th man types anyway.
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