ashbury

By my memory, this managerial strategy was an aberration, as though the team was trying to encourage Max to bring out other parts of his game besides just the homers. Turns out, thanks to a glance at bb-ref.com, he moved around quite a bit in the batting order but the single greatest number of plate appearances he had during his career so far has been at... leadoff. (By a small margin.) Not an aberration or momentary whim at all. But here's the funny thing. Guess where he achieved his best OPS during his career. Right, at leadoff. .810, and he didn't top .800 batting anywhere else. There's statistical bias in this, plus chicken-and-egg - was Max surprisingly comfortable at the top of the order, or did the manager put him there when only he thought Max was going well? Who knows. But Leadoff Kepler was nowhere near the fiasco that Leadoff Margot turned ou-... hey, wait, not to threadjack or anything, but guess what Manuel Margot's OPS was as a leadoff hitter for the Twins? .832. Gimme more of that L/R leadoff platoon please. 😀

It's the walks. That's what's polarizing for me. I look for comps to other players, and really can't find any. Judge and Soto get lots of walks now, but not like ERod. MLB average BB% was 8.2 this past season. Judge's rate was 18.9 and Soto's was 18.1, the two best in the majors. They drew nowhere near these rates when they were in the minors - it developed as pitchers gained respect, presumably. Our guy drew walks 25.1% of the time at AA this past year. It was even higher a couple of years ago at single-A, a little lower the next year at high-A. 25% is just not sustainable, unless he's capable of being a completely new kind of player. Maybe he is, but it seems like an unwise bet. So he'll probably always walk a lot, but what becomes of the portion of walks that seem destined to vanish into thin air? Do they turn into called third strikes, when he faces pitchers who can put the ball where they want? turn into swinging third strikes, as he finds himself in unaccustomed counts due to better pitching? turn into weak contact that harms his batting average? turn into the current mix of results he currently has? I am not confident at all about that last one. The closest comp I found, a year ago when I was delving into the question, was actually Eduoard Julien. Not just within the Twins' farm system, but anywhere. Julien himself is still an open question, after one successful year in the majors - and then one year that was, um, not successful, in ways that his approach to the plate made maddening. And yet, ERod has already defied my expectations from a couple of years ago when his extreme walk rate became a topic of discussion. So I really don't know what to expect. We'll just have to wait and find out. No way would I trade him. I'm a prospect hugger to begin with, but he's above and beyond in that regard. There's a 10% chance he turns into something really special at the plate. There's also a 10% chance his approach doesn't translate to the majors at all. Unlike with most minor league prospects, I'm skeptical about my usual minors-to-majors translations of his stats. IOW, polarizing.

"Better Lucky Than Good." -- Mrs Ash just now

DOINK!

Ah, so you mean the Orioles will make a trade, not that the Twins-Orioles specifically will trade. I was confused by the word "they".

I feel liberated to snark in either direction as conditions dictate!

Third time's the charm, LOL.

Didn't tune in in time to see the earlier play where they went for it instead of taking the points, but if it was an error, then this one feels like just compounding it.

Then Falvey will be able to spend more on free agents, just with a new team. He won't be sidelined for longer than the next off-season, as some team with deeper pockets will like his resume. St Peter, yeah, he gone.

Involving Pablo Lopez? Or a smaller-scale trade?

Hustle Coach Gettin' After It Coach Battlin' One's Tail Off Coach Headfirst Sliding Coach All these positions are currently open, so he can take his pick.

Deal from positional oversupply only after you've established positional oversupply. Cartaya is a project at this point.

Yes, I still remember the lobotomy they required when I too moved into the Bay State. / At least, I think I remember it....

Concur. I keep going back to the MLBTR article, 5 days old now so possibly out of date, which had a headline of "Sale Of Twins Could Be Reached By Opening Day" but the body of the article had a more circumspect "a sale agreement could be in place as soon as Opening Day." Anyone who has bought or sold a home has had a similar situation - you get an agreement signed, and then there is a period of time until closing, during which any of several steps could still fall through. I tend to go with the "agreement in place" wording until we hear something more definitive; any loosening of the payroll pursestrings will not likely occur just due to an agreement being put in motion. Of course, it is possible that the agreement IS already in place and due diligence is underway and we won't hear more until the "closing" date is much nearer - buying a ballclub isn't totally similar to buying a house and the Twins aren't a publicly traded corporation where transparency is required.

Someone in the front office talks about payroll? Let's switch to our personal pet peeve. Which players are you talking about, anyway? Max Kepler played 100% of his defensive innings in RF in 2024. Byron Buxton was in CF when he played. Carlos Correa was at SS when available. Carlos Santana was at 1B, and Jeffers and Vazquez both were at catcher except for a couple of emergency stints at 3B for the latter. Royce Lewis had 3B to himself except he got injured for a long while and then in September they decided to try him elsewhere; his backup Jose Miranda played there basically all the time during his absence. There was some DHing mixed in for several players since there wasn't a fulltime DH on the roster. That leaves LF and 2B, which might have been more stable except for the injuries elsewhere which opened up temporary needs. The regulars played where they belonged, except when they got injured or played themselves out of a starting role and got sent to AAA. If the complaint was that backups like Willi Castro and Manuel Margot and Austin Martin moved around a bit, well, that's the nature of being utility players. It's not like the manager said, "hey, lets swap 2B and 3B just for the fun of it, this coming week, then we'll switch back." They tried several people in CF in Buxton's absence, and no one grabbed the opportunity.

The Other, Wrong, Downright Awful, Very Bad Lopez.

"Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln..." 😀

They won't be welcome at this website, either. 😀

I like projection systems as a quick and dirty way of thinking about many things. But such systems necessarily operate on a conservative basis - "if present trends continue, things will remain about the same." It's just too early to try to say anything definitive about a trade of a guy who will be 31 this coming season versus two guys who will be 26 and 24. I've been down on Martin since the trade was made, but I still hold out hope that he finds one or two tweaks to his game that let him be productive - a little more comfort at the plate and he's suddenly a valuable leadoff hitter for a few years. SWR was always the key to the trade for me, and if 2024 was a kid-gloves approach to him by the manager and pitching coach, maybe 2025 is the year the constraints come off (maybe with the aid of some additional off-season conditioning?). Martin and SWR could of course turn out to be the latest incarnations of Nick Gordon and Fernando Romero respectively. Not ready to make any real judgements.

Hope you find a way to work the events of Sunday, September 27, 1987 into your bio of Newmie - one of the most electrifying moments in Twins history in the top of the first inning!

Seems like a team-friendly deal that gives the player the guarantee he wants - win/win. Factoring into that is full-time DHs just don't get paid the same (for similar offensive production) as a position player, which is what made Nelson Cruz so affordable to the Twins for instance. Makes this deal a little less team-friendly than at first glance. Simply a good, fair deal.

It wasn't my intent to get into platooning per se, merely make the point that you stated at the end. Our new friend hadn't mentioned Kjerstad himself, so I was just reacting to a bit of what I read at their site, which is to be expected since fans of other teams won't necessarily be aware of details like this. But it's the details that make or break a trade proposal.

One thing I haven't seen mentioned in this discussion is that the Orioles' best young players lean heavily toward lefty bats. The Twins already have a bit of an overload of corner outfielders who bat from that side, which could make matching up needs a bit hard, even at other positions. Seeing names like Kjerstad mentioned at O's Hangout strikes me as not realistic; a third team would have to be brought into the mix. Mayo and Westburg bat right but I'm not sure how well they'd fit into the current Twins roster. As an aside, I do enjoy the atmosphere at your site. Good, thoughtful posters there.

Concur. It's easy to second guess any particular play. But some plays put the game on the line that very moment, while a better choice leaves you the chance to try again if it fails. It was a gamble that forced them to try pass plays only, after that. Bad gamble.