ashbury

Put me down for April 28 in this pool. What's the prize?

At last, the missing Abbott and Costello player?

Then my work here is done.

I think that's the sum total of it. If his name were Miguel del Pelfrio, say, would anybody care? The name's the same, but he's not even close to the same guy, I guess I'm saying.

We don't use the word 'scoundrel' to describe politicians often enough anymore.

No, but the rinky-dink math I performed had them so close that I might as well have.

Ricky Nolasco. Traded to a contender on July 31. Pitches mop-up in an 11-0 loss in Game Two.

Definitely good names. The ones like Minier, who are sooo young and haven't even found Elizabethton on a map, I just didn't attempt to evaluate. It's stupid enough to try to evaluate Appy League numbers, and then compare to New Britain.

I always appreciate the feedback. With regard to these particular players, briefly: Eades did finish his season stronger than he started and maybe he can continue that success this yearSlegers and Cederoth would be in that next tier of starters for me, along with Duffey and Curtiss for that matter. In the case of Cederoth, a one-year resume does add a negative factor.Turner and Garver probably will be good, but along with Navarreto are just below that top tier of batters for me - I'd guess that the odds are that one or more will emergeMelotakis likewise registers but in a slightly lower tier of established performance than the others I namedZach Jones didn't pitch enough innings in 2014 to make my list and Tyler Jones didn't put up strong enough numbersChargois didn't pitch in 2014 (or 2013) and thereby evaded my eyeAs you said, it's a very different take. I could summarize that I'm purposely taking an anti-fundamental scouting POV on this, since others have constructed their lists more competently by that measure than I could, so I tilt toward raw season stats. You can't take any numbers too terribly literally, especially at those low levels of the minors; still, they mark what actually happened, as opposed to what arguably "should" have happened given a guy's tools or stuff or superhuman work ethic. And I speculate that one season could always be an accident but two seasons may start to be a trend. I couldn't figure out what to title my post. I certainly didn't intend "Do Not Watch Any Prospects Except These 30". And a title like "An Analytic But Mushy And Data-Free Ranking Of Prospects" would have brought me even fewer readers.

It seems that 30 is the number of prospects people list these days. OK, I’ll go with that. I’ve got my ideas how to rank position players, and how to rank pitchers, but not how to merge such rankings into a single list, so I’ll do them separately. For that matter, I don’t know how to compare relievers to starters, so I’ll keep them separate as well. The measure I’m going for is ceiling – in many cases the floor for these young players is still horribly low if they for whatever reason don’t continue to develop (just ask Joe Benson). Actually, what I’m doing is looking at 2014 performance, in the context of other career numbers. So, Miguel Sano, you’re dead to me, and Byron Buxton, sorry, tough year but you don’t make the cut. And I’m arbitrarily removing guys from my prospect list when they are close enough to being major-league ready, so I’m viewing May, Meyer and even Rosario as more of a question of when and how to fit onto the major league squad. Graham’s a rule-5 guy, he’s out of this discussion too. There's a methodology here, but no defined formula, mostly just By Guess and By Gosh. Here we go. Position players. Jorge Polanco. Ignore his brief call-up to the major league team in 2014. His minor league numbers alone say to me he has a chance to be really good. As with most players this age, it’s not clear exactly which position on the field he’ll land at, but to me it looks like his bat would eventually play even at first base, and it’s never going to come to that. I had overlooked him before 2014, but he’s going to be a starter on good teams for many years. Max Kepler. It seems like he’s been around so long that he must be a bust by now. But he was at high-A last year and is only 21, and he put up good numbers. Again, I don’t know if he can stick in center field, but his overall skill set and his progression with the bat look to me like a good chance for a long career. Travis Harrison. Was 2014 just a speed bump in his progression, or a sign he’s becoming overmatched as he moves up in the organization? I’m betting on the former. He has to hit if he’s going to be a corner outfielder, but he has much scope to grow and I’ll be watching. Max Murphy. I don’t like putting too much stock in a single season. And was the time in Elizabethton or in Cedar Rapids the real Max? But I’m going to split the difference here and say he belongs with the very high ceiling guys and could be a breakout candidate for 2015. Alex Gordon. Another one-year resume which suggests caution, but his 2014 was strong enough to not drop him any lower pending a second year's read on his progress. Zack Larson. 2014 was a learning experience for him, but he didn’t stumble too badly at single-A and was young for his league. A sure thing? No, but I kind of like his chances going forward. Adam Walker. Hardly a sleeper pick by now, and looks like he has a strong chance to be a starter in the majors; his floor is probably higher than some of these others. The Twins could wind up with an abundance of corner outfielders in two or three years, not the worst problem to have. Jorge Fernandez. I don’t think anyone else has him remotely this high, and obviously one good short stint in Elizabethton doesn’t mean a whole lot, but I like his progress. I don’t see a catcher in the system whose ceiling I like better. If he can’t stick behind the plate, his ranking would go down some, but not terribly far; there’s still a chance his bat can play in the outfield. Engelb Vielma. The player who I initially assumed was a double play partner for Etaoin Shrdlu. But at age 20 he is starting to look like not a joke. His glove will take him to the majors, it seems, but the same was true of Florimon, and right now Vielma’s chances with the bat look better than that to me. Tanner English. Another one-year resume that could have me ranking him too high, but a player with center field skills and an ability to get on base via contact or batting eye has a lot of ways he needs to fail before he washes out. So I’ll call him high ceiling, keep an eye on him in 2015, and do so again in ’16 even if he finds the next level a little difficult.Starting pitchers. Kohl Stewart. Some folks are worried by the low K/9 rate in his first full season. But he was so young for his level, and met with such success, that I can’t rate him lower than #1. Lewis Thorpe. Much depends on the suddenly suspect health of his elbow, obviously. (Though that is true of each and every pitching prospect under the sun.) But if I’m talking about ceilings, his two years in the Twins system has me thinking sky high. Stephen Gonsalves. Another highly touted starter who in two years has shown no sign to suggest the scouts are wrong. Jose Berrios. Why so low? The distance among these top 5 starting pitchers is so small that it’s nearly a couple of coin flips. And his floor is probably at this point highest among the 5. Chih-Wei Hu. He should be on first, amiright? What? I Don't Know. Anyway, he is the fifth guy in the Twins system that I see having a ceiling of front of the rotation starter. They won’t all achieve that, but it’s still tasty. Jason Wheeler. Now we come to a group whose ceiling is more mid-rotation but still not fifth starter IMO. The knock on Wheeler has been the K/9 rate, and I don’t ignore that, but so far in his 3 years all he has done is succeed. I would like to see him get a lot of chances. Taylor Rogers. I could be bad luck for Taylor, having been there when he got injured by a line drive in the AFL. So I’ll promise to stay out of his minor league zipcodes (no such guarantee if he reaches the majors) if he’ll promise to continue his steady progress. Jason Adam. Already a forgotten man, almost, after being acquired by trade for the Hammer, there’s talk (OK, I read it in the TD Prospect Handbook ) that the Twins will have him start in 2015 after the Royals seemingly relegated him to the bullpen. I like the idea, as he was still very young when he stumbled two consecutive years in AA. He could put it together, and still be a young rookie if he reaches the majors, and I call that a good ceiling. Felix Jorge. The enigma. His horrendous time in single-A removed him from many observers’ top prospect lists; he somewhat put things back together again in Elizabethton. The good part of his year suggests front line starter is still not out of the question, but I’m going to drop him here and watch with great interest in 2015. Brett Lee. Another starter who doesn’t strike out enough batters to please people, including me, but like Wheeler he has been getting enough of the batters out. I may be succumbing to Anthony Slama Disease here, but I say keep promoting him and coaching him and believing in him until he proves his critics right two years in a row.Now some relievers. Jake Reed. I suppose I’m just being contrarian to list him ahead of Burdi, but man did he have a debut in 2014, with off the charts numbers. I don’t like putting either guy as #1 based on a single pro season, but di-yum, he could be good. Nick Burdi. Watch the Burdi and see if he beats Reed to the majors. Good times, good times. Brandon Peterson. He doesn’t get the press ink of the first two guys, but he is striking some people out. Yorman Landa. His injury puts things in doubt, but just in terms of ceiling and what he has demonstrated at a young age, he deserves watching. Alex Muren. For some reason, I paid attention to when he was drafted. He was a college pitcher with relatively limited upside. As a reliever, he’s done well all three years while being on nobody's radar, and at this point I want to see him continue to get chances. Brian Gilbert. He did not put up stellar numbers at Ft Myers, yet because of his youth I could see him putting it together in 2015. Someone I’ll watch. Stephen Pryor. Another forgotten result of a trade. He did very well indeed in his short time at Rochester, and I would be just about as happy to have him given a shot in the Twins bullpen as some million-dollar retread, but apparently the front office sees it differently. I’ll still keep him on my watch list. A. J. Achter. And another reliever who did well at Rochester and seems deserving of a shot on the big club. We’ll see whether he gets one.There’s my list. Not necessarily a Top 30, but 30 I'm watching. Players who I believe all have a ceiling as multi-year starters for a good team, whether on the field or in the rotation, or at least as dependable bullpen members. Dozier and Plouffe caliber or better, not simply hangers-on. Of course the floors are low. But it's a deep system. You knew that already. But… that’s only 28 prospects? Come back, Sano and Buxton. All is forgiven, and I’ll be watching you in 2015 too. And honestly, even Buxton’s “bad” year at Ft Myers would put him near the top of my list without even adjusting for his previous years – he’s young and he's good. But you knew that already.

I didn't even realize he was still plugging away. He pitched only in an Indy league in 2014, so no offense to him intended but at age 32 the distinction between that and retirement is small and mostly in his own perspective.

Fun. And we'll hold you to this in October.

Agreed. There's a misused quote attributed variously to Tom Kelly and others that you don't really know what you've got in a batter until he gets 1000 PA (or whatever number). But that insight is offered in the context of a player who gets off to a hot start; you have to temper your expectations until the league gets its chance to adjust. It's not the case that every player with some kind of AAA credentials gets his 1000 PA to prove himself in the majors; you have to produce, and if you don't the league's not going to bother to adjust and there's nothing more for management to learn about you.

Fryer being off the 40-man is fine for now, but it doesn't serve the purpose, if one of the catchers goes down during the season for several weeks but not to an extent a 60-day DL stint is needed. Then another roster decision has to be made. Obviously it could be that there is already an opening due to a DL placement at another position, but that's not a given. And then you will have exposed two guys to waivers and DFA, Fryer and some other guy, instead of the other guy in the first place. Adding all this up, it says to me that significant roster changes are still coming, that will make DFA'ing Fryer just noise in the system.

To be considered for that major, there, one of your legs is required to be shorter than the other.

Yeah, I guess I ask this question every year, but have the Wolves ever drafted higher than their reverse standings ranking would call for? I think their pingpong ball has literally never come up. Meanwhile we get treated to the spectacle of the Orlando GM's face lit up with mock shock at coming up #1 yet again.

Zero interest in collecting those. Zero. The grownups with their binders killed it.

Ever since Sidd Finch didn't make it I have tried to stay emotionally unattached to prospects, but with a gun to my head I suppose I'd be uncreative and opt for Buxton as the guy I check on the most.

I've got a buddy who played the game who calls those analysts who never played the game 'propeller heads.' Any chance he's talking about our own Torii Hunter?

I like the several references to "community" in this thread. The word probably best sums up what the moderators are trying to achieve here.

If Herrmann's the team's backup catcher, it'll be because some kind of emergency has arisen. Dropping Fryer from the 40-man leaving only two players with "catcher" attached to their name, on the closest thing to an official roster (http://www.mlb.com/team/roster_40man.jsp?c_id=min), tells me Pinto is the backup. Barring some kind of trade or major pickup, obviously.

But "trading high" has the corollary risk that after awhile you accumulate a collection of players you can't trade because they aren't performing. I don't think a GM can go in with a strategy of trying to outfox his peers on the other teams, unless he is *very* confident in his talent and assessment. Because with one or two exceptions, the other guys know who is playing over their heads too.

Fast moving rumor. A later update (below) indicates Myers wouldn't be in the package, but the interest in Hamels is legit. Did you have a different source? http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/12/padres-have-discussed-trading-myers-for-hamels.html

The fact that they traded May to us in the first place makes this an odd combination IMO.

Meh. I don't expect his Petco Park numbers to carry over. But it's not a big investment in case he flops.