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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    For now I am fine with having 8 candidates for the rotation. I'm not focusing on which slots are currently "taken". This will likely sort itself out in a first phase by the end of spring training (and without having to give excessive weight to pitching records in spring games either), and completely sorted out in a second phase by late May. A guy or two or three will have to bide some time in the bullpen (if not the DL), and by June it is very unlikely someone both healthy and deserving still hasn't gotten his chance. The bigger challenge IMO is that only 7 out of 21 pitchers on the 40-man throw lefty, and at least two of those seem clearly destined for Rochester. That's going to force more decisions than who starts. My solution would be to tell a righty who's temporarily in the pen, "you want to be a big league starter? We can start with you getting this one lefty out today, and go from there. You're going to have to get guys like that out anyway."
  2. ashbury
    Age and league is pretty fundamental to how I project a prospect's progress, but only in the context of their performance. Age does serve as a proxy for having a complete scouting report on a guy, though. I'm letting them do my homework for me, if I say a guy has a chance to be a star. "He's in Ft Myers at age 20? Guess the team thinks a lot of him. Could be in the majors in a couple of years. That other guy there, he's 25; even though he's hitting better, it could be hard for him to get a cup of coffee." Ya think? Number of years of pro experience also matters. I'm more lenient waiting for a struggling 24 year old who came out of college than if he was signed as a free agent from the Dominican Republic at 16. And outliers like Colabello, who didn't face tough competition in his early twenties, throws off such gauges as well. I was once 20 years old, and it wouldn't have done a team's prospect list any good to put me at AAA.
  3. ashbury
    I don't think it works that way. Molitor isn't going to hold a team meeting, "OK guys, nice job with the clutch hits on offense and the timely GIDP on defense yesterday. Today, we need to stay in sync as well. Hitters, take a few more fat pitches for strikes. Pitchers, let's try to be a little too fine, OK? Let's see if we can lose 9-0, and really screw up that Pythag projection the poindexters love so much." IMO it's up to Molitor to get the Twins to play well.
  4. ashbury
    Who currently in the organization but not on the 40-man has the best shot of making the major league roster for Opening Day? (I'm also out of state, and I echo Brandon's idea of the homeless shelter.)
  5. ashbury
    If that's Arcia he swings.
  6. ashbury
    Bookmakers claiming they're losing money because the underdog won, lol. Always makes for a great headline. Smart marketing.
  7. ashbury
    Doug wasn't high on my list of preferences for the manager's job for 2015. The on-field loss of temper suggested to me that he needs a few more seasons of demonstrated ability to maintain an even keel. If there is any truth to this current discussion, I consider it further evidence that he would have been a ticking time bomb on the major league bench; something inevitably would have not been to his liking at some point in his tenure.
  8. ashbury
    They worked something out.
  9. ashbury
    Fair point; consider me suitably chastened. Perhaps I should have used this metaphor instead: http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/Chinese_compliment
  10. ashbury
    Minor quibble, I believe the teams still have the choice to work something out. That's how Scott Diamond wound up pitching a lot for Rochester in 2011, for example.
  11. ashbury
    Yeah, but a poor man's "best utility player" kind of becomes a left-handed compliment at best. I actually have slightly higher hopes for him than that; a serviceable starter, for a ceiling.
  12. ashbury
    What does Goin need to do to make Milone a success at this stage?
  13. ashbury
    Lakeside's "my guess" = Twins projection?
  14. ashbury
    Houston has been known to snap up a player. But they're at 40. Toronto seems to have an open slot, and are carrying only 18 position players. Miami is one under, and has a really odd distribution with 24 pitchers and only 15 position players. I was going to ask the emerging consensus on Thompson whether you like Graham all that much better. I guess I can compare Parms and Graham now, because that's what the rule-5 pick amounts to, since Ryan knew what was in the works. Good "trade", or no?
  15. ashbury
    FWIW, Bourjos is not a free agent. We'd have to trade to get him. Does that change your view on him? The Cardinals aren't giving him away and could find other takers. Suppose the firm asking price was (I don't know) Kepler or Thorpe plus a lesser prospect, would you do it?
  16. ashbury
    I want to give Milone every opportunity to bounce back. Winning a pennant not being a likely outcome for '15, I'm fine with a somewhat dysfunctional bullpen, or a six-man rotation, or other stratagem, for several weeks if it gives us the chance to get a high-performing starting rotation going. The pile is now big enough that we may be able to find the pony in it. And Milone is part of that pile, even if that's not an especially complimentary way to be thought of.
  17. ashbury
    Agreed: http://youtu.be/ES2dozTkogc (Caution: NSFW, nor for anyone really. )
  18. ashbury
    That seems like a mischaracterization. The poster you replied to seemed to be taking pains to not say this. "Not qualified to be GM", which is the sense I take from his explanation, isn't close to the same as "stupid". However I too am troubled by the inference I take that unless one is qualified to be a GM, one is not qualified to comment except with extreme caution and meekness. (The repeated references to P&L salary drive home that inference for me.) While the moderators try to keep the conversation civil, this is still a sports web site, and people can express widely divergent opinions without the requirement to demonstrate their qualifications before speaking. But on a third hand, it does get old to see people post "well, I think the team should [do something that likely goes far outside business logic]," and remain immune to rebuttal by saying "but they should." Bottom line for me is that this kind of tangent won't ever get settled to anyone's satisfaction, and the solution should be to continue discussing with evidence and well-constructed opinion, and with mutual respect. My personal guess, BTW, is that the demographic, served by TD specifically, skews a bit higher on the "qualified" axis than most places you can discuss the Twins.
  19. ashbury
    I guess commentators like to be dismissive of certain teams and heap praise on others. The group of teams changes with time of course - so I'm basically calling such writers front-runners. The Fangraphs writeup when Ervin signed with the Braves last March said, "Where the Braves are on the win curve, it was vital for them to replace Medlen with someone at least close to as talented." Santana's basically the same pitcher as last time, but now (and it's a different writer, I realize) it's the Twins signing him, so the "praise" must be snide and dismissive.
  20. ashbury
    Not really. Age, yes. (Born within days of each other.) But Lester is signed for 6 guaranteed years, $155M. Hamels is 4 more years, $94M. Each has an optional year at the end, that the respective team controls by giving up a few million extra (Hamels' is $6M, I don't know Lester's). One can cut ties with Hamels after age 34, Lester will be around until 36. Pretty big difference, to me, both in years and dollars. As you go on to point out, this is balanced (probably more than balanced) by the need to give up significant talent to acquire the less expensive option. But IMO it's a closer decision than you painted it.
  21. ashbury
    Concur. And if by "mistake" you end up with too much talent on the roster, veteran relievers (with their relatively modest salaries) are easy to move.
  22. ashbury
    How many years of Duensing?
  23. ashbury
    It's a minor league signing. The invite to spring training, and a small pre-negotiated bump in salary if he should happen to make the 25-man roster, doesn't change that. Teams sign AAA depth all the time.
  24. ashbury
    #54 in honor of Matt Guerrier?
  25. ashbury
    If I had a nickel for every time someone complained about Mackey complaining about... oh well.
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