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SkyBlueWaters

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  1. SkyBlueWaters
    i like the idea of developing the kids. (Which is good, because it's what we have.) The upcoming collective bargaining agreement is HUGE for determining MLB's landscape in the future. If MLB continues to let teams like the Mets and Dodgers buy up top talent, we are relegated to contending for the division title again. Memories of the first two decades of this century, anyone? But if MLB comes up with more competitive balance, and the Twins have established a core of young talent over the course of 2026, then maybe over the following half decade the Pohlads can buy talent that helps the Twins go deep into the playoffs.
  2. SkyBlueWaters
    After the dust settled and my gloom lifted in early August, I looked at the pieces left and was actually cautiously optimistic. The toughest thing to develop/acquire is starting pitching. (Joe Ryan is right that letting Sonny Gray go earlier was the worst recent move.) Otherwise, we have an excellent core for the rotation. A lot easier to find no. 4 or 5 starters than it is to find an ace. Beyond our top 3, we have a lot of arms to pick from as far as bullpen and 4 & 5 starters. It’s very much up in the air, and could either work well or blow up in their (our) faces. Signing a veteran or 2 to anchor the back of the bullpen could add much stability. I’d be forgiving if the spring saw bullpen struggles while finding answers for summer and early autumn. A lot also hinges on whether Royce Lewis can develop and complement Buck. A big bat at first would be huge. Lots of questions, including lots of potential.
  3. SkyBlueWaters
    When we heard of how much debt the Pohlads had accrued since the pandemic, i had some empathy for them. (Except for debt accrued turning Target Field into a garish amusement ride of swirling flashing lights, where I’m confused & looking around for the stats I want.) But since then, I’ve thought the way to assess the owners is by looking at all 30 MLB ownership groups—or indeed all major sports owners. Don’t many of them enjoy their teams like a hobby they invest in? Don’t many of them write off the red ink as part of the pleasure of owning a team? Considering the appreciation in value since Carl bought the Twins from Calvin, is Pohlad red ink for owning a sports team worse than other MLB ownership groups?
  4. SkyBlueWaters
    It’s fine to pick some of our hall of famers and all-stars from the past. And I do hope the current players you’ve noted go on to have illustrious careers. But what if their careers are closer to: Lombardozzi 25, Marty Cordova 25, Coomer 28, Meares 24, Brian Buchanan 26? Major League pitching has changed radically in recent decades. It might take longer now to get hitters major league ready and confident.
  5. SkyBlueWaters
    Exactly. Plus, when the Cardinals played the Twins last year Gray himself said he liked playing here. But he made it clear he was going to follow the money.
  6. SkyBlueWaters
    “ … pairing him again with López at the top of the rotation. That duo provides a one-two punch that rivals almost any staff in the American League. Ryan slides comfortably into a mid-rotation role, while Ober and Chris Paddack round things out. Suddenly, Minnesota has depth, hierarchy, and stability.” Exactly. This gets to the heart of it. Even with Lopez’s injury this year, the rotation would have remained competitive.
  7. SkyBlueWaters
    Would love to be privy to conversations the next owners are having regarding spending on free agency and retaining talent. Re-stocking the farm system this way is a good foundation. Good luck to Bader, enjoyed his hustle this year, would like to see him return, too.
  8. SkyBlueWaters
    I'd rather not toss Ober into the post-season as a frontline starter, but it's too late now. Had they acquired someone, Ober could have been either a fourth starter or long-relief. Gray would have been perfect.
  9. SkyBlueWaters
    But isn't that the point? If you're satisfied with just making the playoffs, fine. But teams like LAD, Philly, NYY, Balt are preparing for October. The test isn't how well our pitchers do against mediocrity. The cities that have championship parades have teams built for post-season success. Writers herein have posited that "you've got to get there first." Well, duh. How many teams built for post-season success *can't* win in the regular season?
  10. SkyBlueWaters
    This is spot on. I'm so tired of the "making the playoffs is our success" attitude. The FO should have added a legitimate arm at the deadline. The real contenders are positioning themselves for October. If our pitching staff can't excel and be fresh for October then it's just a matter of when Minnesotans once again rationalize whiffing on the post-season.
  11. SkyBlueWaters
    Which teams have an inside track to make it to a league championship series or higher--Balt, NYY, LAD, Philly, Cleve, maybe Atl, Milw. if they get hot? The Twins right now are a front line starter away from joining that crowd. We've got a lineup that could compete with the best, but without at least three quality starters they're still playoff cannon fodder. I really believe they're that close. ((And we HAD the pitcher we need, in Sonny Gray!)) This team is run as if by a risk-averse midwestern farmer. No, no flash for me, thanks, I'll just stand pat. As if they are the poster boys for why the twin cities has the longest championship drought of any metro area with three or more pro teams. Now watch fans get their hopes up while Lucy plants the football for Charlie Brown once again. It's beyond maddening.
  12. SkyBlueWaters
    I think we largely agree. I’d add, however, that this counts on the starters remaining healthy most of the year. How often is that realistic? I remember S.F., in 2012 I think, got incredible years from Cain, Bumgarner, Lincecum, Vogelsong, and Zito—those 5 started 160 games, and with that talent, goes a ways toward winning the World Series. But that’s far and away the exception. Most rotations need someone to step in. I sure hope that, after Lopez (legit ace), we can find playoff caliber no. 2 and 3 guys from Ryan, Ober, Varland, Paddack, maybe even Disco Desclafini, if he has a helluva bounceback. It’s just asking a lot. Especially as the FO has gone all in on position players, and the high ceiling we have in talent with Lewis, Correa, Buxton, even Julien.
  13. SkyBlueWaters
    Remember Wimpy, of the Popeye cartoons? “I will gladly pay you Tuesday, for a hamburger today.” The Twins are the reverse. We lost a wonderful pitcher in Sonny Grey, quality start after quality start, and we’ve only added a back of the rotation guy, while realistically getting one real prospect. (Ok, and a relief prospect.) It’s the reverse Wimpy. I’ll glad pay you today, for a hamburger on Tuesday.
  14. SkyBlueWaters
    Per the Ozzie Guillen quote about how people hated AJ, but if he was your teammate you hated him a little less, think of the ways AJ rubbed people the wrong way. I don't think that translates well in the booth. Frankly, he seemed a bit petty at times. I don't find your examples petty in the same way. Alternatively, perhaps Pierzynski could have been arrogant in the booth and made it work. For whatever reason, he seems to have gone with a less abrasive approach, It works, at least for me.
  15. SkyBlueWaters
    Agreed. While he was arrogant as player, he was also very intelligent. I think some PR person has gotten through to him, shown him how arrogance never plays well in the booth, and he's smart enough to learn what does work.
  16. SkyBlueWaters
    You beat me to the punch on the Guillen quote. I liked how AJ and Wainwright broke down the Astros' approach, noting that how they were consistently behind on the fastballs indicated they were hunting Sonny Gray's breaking stuff. Telling us of the hitting machines that can duplicate specific pitcher's stuff, so they can practice against it. (Side lament: Are the Twins hitters aware of this? How come the K champs can't bring that to the game??) Because AJ was so often abrasive as a player, I'm braced for it. So when he's not a jerk, but instead at times self-deprecating, it's almost...refreshing. He and Wainwright laughing about how, as a battery, they had the highest ERA of all the catchers who caught Waino cracked me up. And man, the way the Twins weren't hitting, I needed the amusement.
  17. SkyBlueWaters
    Agreed. Buxton turns 30 this December. Many if not most good baseball players find peaks in their 20s. Do we really expect a guy who was so often injured in his 20s to find good health in his 30s? He's been in the big leagues nine years now. Even when he's played, his offense hasn't been stellar. 2487 career PA isn't a small sample, and he's slashed .239/.300/.468. Some guys are always viewed in terms of their "potential." Aside from his solid 2017 season, he hasn't played more than 92 games, or reached 400 PA. Never scored 70 runs or reached 70 ribbies. Don't get me wrong, I'm pulling for him. My favorite stat was his 29 stolen bases and 1 CS in '17. Because really he stole all 30 that year--he was safe on that CS, but just overslid the bag. The future seemed so promising.
  18. SkyBlueWaters
    There might be a big difference in mindset between a team tired from last night's game and eager to get on the plane and get away and a team lining up for the playoffs.
  19. SkyBlueWaters
    I'd love to see the Twins post the second best record in the AL and get a bye in the first round of the playoffs, but there's a little voice telling me: hold on a second. Forgive my small hopes, but wouldn't it be a great first step to simply win a playoff game for the first time since YouTube was created? I'm thinking matching up with Seattle or Texas in the wildcard round might give us good odds. Yeah, I want to see a world series in Target Field, too. But let's build some playoff confidence enroute. So maybe, with the days off built into the playoff schedule, we can line up our pitchers and build some confidence. We've got more quality pitching than we've had in a looong time.
  20. SkyBlueWaters
    I completely agree. He's hitting ,207 this year with a ,294 OBP, with plenty of chances at 304 AB. That's our big bat off the bench? His playoff record against the Astros in 2020 wasn't inspirational, either. Three K's in the first game, and put in as a pinch runner in the 8th inning of the game 2 loss, he got picked off. Frankly, he looked lost. Maybe he'll rebound from that, but I'm not seeing him as the guy who rises to the occasion yet.
  21. SkyBlueWaters
    When you have a clearcut need, a deficiency to remedy, trades at the deadline can make a big difference. For example, our deals for pitching at prior deadlines. Our issue this season is under-performing stars. I don't see a good trade to fix that. I like our young players. I don't know how much trade value someone like Kepler might have; in general, any deal including our veterans would be trading them at low value, not high value. (For the opposite, dealing at high value, note how we benefited from dealing Nelson Cruz--in his time, a wonderful Twin, but his numbers dropped precipitously after he went to TBR.) I think we hope out hitters figure it our in the remaining 60+ games.
  22. SkyBlueWaters
    Molly Ivins wrote a book titled, "You Got to Dance With Them What Brung You." That works for both the bringing and the brought. And we bought in on Correa and Buxton. In the Twins context, the FO went all in on those two, and I'm among those who bought in on both deals. But weirdly, their low offensive production now boxes us in at DH and SS. Looking at the hitters who might be available, considering the fungible players we might have, and how much I like young talent like Lewis, Kiriloff, Wallner, Julien, even Larnach, I don't want to see a deal made out of desperation. The Twins had one of the toughest schedules in MLB in the first half. It's much easier in the second half. E.g., in the notorious "small sample sizes" we did ok against NYY, 4-3; Hou, 4-2; SDP, 2-1; and Milw, 2-0; which makes 3-4 against both Cleve and Detroit all the more annoying, to say nothing of the two series sweeps, Balt and Tampa. What trade value might Kepler have? I'm skeptical any possible deal, for the available players, is going to be a net positive. I'd like to see possibilities for a super-utility player (like Marwin Gonzalez once provided). But I'm not optimistic. And I'm leery of a deal made out of desperation. Molly Ivins (who cut her reporter teeth at the Mpls Tribune, much as she hated the cold) had it right. I think we're going to dance with them what brung us, and if our hitters can make some adjustments, that might work out.
  23. SkyBlueWaters
    Also, mid-summer, Royce Lewis. And part of me wouldn't mind seeing Lewis DH for a bit. He was quite the bat last May. I know he's a stellar athlete, but the same knee, twice ...
  24. SkyBlueWaters
    I don't think you can ever have too much quality pitching, if for no other reason than pitching is often something teams need, so it's invaluable trade bait. My sense is its a bit early to address this question. We'll have a better sense of where we're at after 3 games with Houston, 6 with the damn Yankees, and three with the Chisox by the end of April. Plus, through May 17, we'll have three more each with the Chisox, TribGuardians, Padres, Cubs, and Dodgers. The real question might become do we need to parlay our newfound depth in above-average pitching into a July deal to improve the front of our rotation. (Sorry, I'm not yet convinced what we have now stacks up well against the teams who've played in the LCS's recently.) Considering the way this team was built through their struggles last decade, the goal is to be able to play and beat frontrunners. It isn't enough to make the playoffs, we need to show we can beat playoff-caliber teams. (Unless happiness for you is seeing division pennants flying above the stadium. And for those who say 'You have to win the division first': a team capable of advancing in the playoffs is capable of beating the also-rans and winning a division. As the Twins have proven this century, the reverse is not always true.)
  25. SkyBlueWaters
    My understanding is that the Dodgers signed him to that incentive-laden contract years ago because they were concerned he might be injury-prone. I hope he stays healthy, and pitches well. We sure need a solid front of the rotation.
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