Lucas Seehafer PT

Results are in from Paddack's first appearance. Very low spin rate, more vertical than horizontal break, moderate velo. Seems like Paddack's new pitch is a gyro slider.

League average last year was 4.33. If offense, continues to rise, as is likely, 4.50 may very well be average this summer. I'd take a 4.28 with high K rate from Paddack every day.

According to reporters on the scene in Fort Myers, Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Chris Paddack is working on a new pitch. What should Twins fans think of this development? Image courtesy of © Jonah Hinebaugh/Naples Daily News/USA Today Network-Florida / USA TODAY NETWORK Chris Paddack raised many an eyebrow in late September, when he returned from his second Tommy John surgery pumping 97-mph gas out of the bullpen. His four-seamer averaged 95.5 mph across 35 regular-season offerings, which was nearly 0.7 mph faster than his previous career high, set in 2021. However, with the dawn of the 2024 season on the horizon and Paddack firmly in position to be in the Opening Day starting rotation, the Twins determined that the best course of action was for him to add another pitch. As Matthew Trueblood wrote recently, Paddack’s most frequently used pitch throughout his career has been his four-seamer. However, despite its newfound velocity (if that even has staying power as he moves back to starting), the heater has poor “shape”, meaning it doesn’t have the typical traits you’d expect highly successful fastballs to possess. For example, although its spin efficiency is elite (approximately 100%, or pure backspin), its 2,254 RPM spin rate is below-average, especially given the velocity. Additionally, its 15-inch induced vertical break (IVB)—or the amount the ball doesn’t drop during flight, giving the pitch the appearance of rising action—is just ok. (For reference, an IVB of 20 inches or so is elite.) Because he stands 6-foot-5 and uses a high three-quarters arm slot, his adjusted vertical approach angle—or the angle at which the ball approaches the plate, adjusted for its vertical location when it reaches the plate—is quite poor. Paddack!.mp4 Luckily, Paddack possesses a strong changeup that plays well off his mediocre fastball. Again, it has a poor vertical approach angle due to his arm slot but it owns seven inches of drop, nearly 16 inches of arm-side run, and is thrown between 10-13 mph slower. For all intents and purposes, Paddack’s changeup looks like his fastball out of the hand…but it just keeps running. Paddack!!.mp4 This brings us, finally, to why Paddack is working on a “slider/cutter”. Briefly: He needs a reliable third pitch, a second good pitch, and ideally one that plays well off his fastball. View full article

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Very much disagree here. Front offices hire biomechanists, sports scienticists, analytic quants exactly because there are a ton of secrets waiting to be discovered. Baseball is not as figured out as people think.

The Minnesota Twins acquired starting pitcher Anthony DeSclafani from the Seattle Mariners on Monday evening. While his superficial numbers aren’t particularly eye-popping, DeSclafani provides solid rotation depth. He may also have some potential waiting to be unlocked. Image courtesy of © D. Ross Cameron - USA Today Sports Anthony DeSclafani was once considered among MLB’s up-and-coming starting pitchers before injuries began to hamper his career. He has spent significant time on the injured list, due to a right UCL sprain (all of 2017), right flexor-pronator strain (2023), right ankle inflammation (2021) and surgery (2022; peroneal tendon repair), right shoulder fatigue (2021), right teres major strain (2020), and two left oblique strains (2016 and 2018). However, when healthy, DeSclafani has proved he’s a viable MLB starter. He has posted ERAs of 3.17, 3.89, and 4.05 in the three seasons in which he’s made at least 30 starts, and 3.28 and 4.93 in the two seasons in which he started between 20 and 30. He's a traditional five-pitch mix, but has largely relied on his sinker and slider over his past two seasons with the San Francisco Giants. (The Mariners traded for DeSclafani earlier this offseason, before flipping him to the Twins.) DeSclafani’s best and most-thrown—44.8% usage rate last summer—pitch is that slider. It sits at 87-89 mph, with poor spin efficiency (43% active) and a 60-minute deviation in observed versus spin-based movement. In English: DeSclafani’s slider features more gyroscopic spin than active (i.e. movement-causing) spin. Thus, it relies more on gravity and seam-shifted wake to create drop, rather than on the Magnus effect to create run. slider.mp4 As a result, his bullet slider is a ground-ball machine, with the average launch angle against it in 2023 registering at 10 degrees; he’s only surrendered 34 home runs across 4,578 career offerings. It’s a legit weapon, though it works in defiance of the Twins’ sweeper-crazed ethos last year. DeSclafani’s second most-utilized pitch is a sinker. (Notice I said second-most utilized, not second-best. More on that in a second.) To be blunt: It’s nothing special. It does exactly what you’d expect of a sinker. It has decent arm-side run (16 inches; basically league average) and a modest 2,128 RPM spin rate (same). It’s used for inducing ground balls, and that’s about it. sinker.mp4 Those two pitches became his bread-and-butter during his tenure by the Bay, but there might be much more to him than what the Giants have tapped into recently. View full article

Thanks! I know he was back at Driveline a month or so ago. I imagine we'll hear/see what he was tinkering on come Spring Training. I'd imagine altering his grip a bit on the sweeper and splitter to induce more movement would be the main focus.

It’s often said that baseball is a game of inches. Perhaps no pitcher better illustrates that than Joe Ryan. Joe Ryan—acquired the summer before in exchange for fan favorite Nelson Cruz—burst onto the scene in 2022, thanks largely to his unique arm slot and heavy four-seam fastball usage. A hair over 60% of his offerings in 2022 were heaters, a number generally reserved for fireballing relievers; that number dropped only incrementally (to 56.9%) in 2023, thanks to increased reliance on a new splitter (27.2%) and sweeper 11.3%). Despite possessing a relatively poor spin rate (2216 RPM in 2023, 415th of the 648 pitchers with at least 10 plate appearances ending with the pitch) and movement profile (10.3-inch horizontal break, 17.6-inch vertical; each below 50th percentile league-wide), Ryan generates whiffs by attacking the top of the zone with his heat, leveraging his high spin efficiency (96%) in combination with a 5-foot vertical release point and trebuchet-like arm action to hide the ball until release. The result is one of MLB’s most valuable and underrated fastballs, worth 33 runs over his 335 career innings. JR.mp4 However, something changed in 2023. See if you can spot the result in the chart below. YEAR xBA xWOBA xSLG xERA ERA MPH SPIN 2B/3B HR 2022 .200 .300 .377 3.57 3.55 92.0 2194 11 9 2023 .208 .274 .381 3.53 4.51 92.3 2216 15 19 Ryan’s home run per fly ball rate on fastballs ballooned from 9.5% in 2022 to 14.9% in 2023. The good news is that his expected stats stayed steady, which is suggestive that plain ol’ bad luck played a major role in Ryan’s metamorphosis from arguable All-Star snub to untrusted in the playoffs. That's why Cody Pirkl wrote, this weekend, that there's hope for a bounceback from Ryan in 2024. (His home run problems were particularly punishing after the All-Star Game, as he surrendered 16 in a mere 54 ⅔ innings to go along with a not-nice 6.09 ERA.) But waving away Ryan’s misfortunes solely to luck lacks rigor, nuance...and truth. View full article

To say that Royce Lewis had an exciting 2023 season would be an understatement. The former top prospect re-established himself as a core component of the Minnesota Twins’ future, after returning from his second ACL tear in as many years and continuing right where he left off. Specifically, he hit the crap out of the ball. However, there might be more room for explosiveness. Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski - USA Today Sports Although he did not qualify for any awards due to his limited plate appearances, Royce Lewis ranked in the top 10 percent of all MLB hitters in maximum exit velocity (114.0 mph) and Barrels per plate appearance (7.9%), meaning he has near-elite raw power and an ability to find the ball with his barrel. Lewis’s bat-to-ball skills resulted in 15 home runs and a massive .920 OPS in only 239 plate appearances, one of the highest home run rates per plate appearance in baseball. However, looking under the hood, it’s fair to be skeptical about Lewis’s 2023 power output. For starters, a 6.3% home run per plate appearance rate is elite. For context, Atlanta’s Ronald Acuña Jr. tallied 735 plate appearances last summer. Had Lewis maintained his power output across Acuña’s volume, he would have mashed 46 home runs, which would have tied for third in MLB with the Mets’ Pete Alonso. Additionally, Lewis’s underlying hard-hit data leaves something to be desired. His 42% hard-hit rate was 132nd out of 343 batters with at least 150 batted ball events, and his Sweet Spot percentage—which tracks balls hit with a launch angle between 8 and 32 degrees—was only 33.3%, which would have ranked well below average. So while Lewis has the raw power to hit balls very hard, he’s not able to tap into a full share of that power consistently, or at the optimal launch angle to maximize extra-base hits and home runs. This highlights how impressive his 15 home runs were last summer, while also showing that there was a bit of luck and small-sample noise involved. It may be worth discussing a couple of the biomechanical variances between Lewis and Acuña’s swings, to highlight how they differ and also to suggest minor tweaks Lewis could implement to increase his power profile. Let’s start by looking at each swing in slow motion. First, here's Lewis: Royce Lewis.mp4 Acuna2.mp4 I purposely chose videos in which both batters faced off against middle-in sliders that resulted in home runs. This allows us to see how each batter attacks these offerings and how their swings differ, despite having similar outcomes. View full article

Buxton is pretty much right on the money. This is another example of a best case scenario procedure. I wrote a brief Twitter thread once his surgery was announced:

I went to school for healthcare, not math!

The Minnesota Twins announced Wednesday afternoon that first baseman Alex Kirilloff underwent surgery on his right shoulder. The good news is that the damage was less significant than anticipated. Image courtesy of © Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports A nagging shoulder injury continued to bother Alex Kirilloff following his return from the injured list in September. It became bad enough in the playoffs that he needed to be removed from the ALDS roster. Kirilloff was originally diagnosed with a torn labrum, the ring of cartilage in the shoulder that improves the joint’s stability. Depending on the location of the tear, rehabilitation can take upwards of 6-8 months following surgery before the athlete is cleared to return to play full-time. Luckily, Kirilloff’s labrum was discovered to be intact, which allowed his surgical team to perform a bursectomy, a much less invasive and traumatic procedure. There are many bursae located in and around the shoulder, with the most prominent being the subacromial bursa. This fluid-filled sac sits between the supraspinatus tendon (the supraspinatus is a rotator cuff muscle) and the nearby bone, reducing the amount of friction expounded upon the tissue. Shoulder pain resembling a rotator cuff or labrum injury may be a result of subacromial bursa irritation. Removal of the bursa often relieves pain and improves range of motion. Athletes can often return to play in relatively short order, so, barring any major setbacks, Kirilloff shouldn’t be expected to begin the 2024 regular season on the IL. There also shouldn’t be any major concerns for future rotator cuff injury as proper strength training and other rehabilitative procedures should reduce the risk of tendon irritation. All things considered, this was a best-case scenario for Kirilloff and the Twins. Bursectomies fall under the nebulous “clean-up procedure” umbrella and spare the surrounding muscular and joint stabilizing structures. While this was Kirilloff’s third surgery of his career (Tommy John while in the minors and two wrist surgeries), it was by far the least significant and concerning. View full article

Being born with hip dysplasia is fairly common and can be corrected with bracing if caught at a young enough age. If caught later then doctors usually go the surgical route. I'm not aware of any research that has looked at the impact of hip dysplasia on athletic performance and longevity, but I'd be pretty surprised if was any more a hindrance than any other factor. I'm biased because I tend to favor the athlete and their performance and not ding them for past injuries/conditions, so unless the kid's hips are literally missing, it would stop me from drafting him. The MLB draft is such a crap shoot anyway, you may as well simply take the best talent and let the chips fall where they may.

The Minnesota Twins on Wednesday introduced their new face of the franchise. Shortstop Carlos Correa, who had previously signed near-record deals with the San Francisco Giants and New York Mets before each fell through due to “concerns” over his right ankle, agreed to a six-year, $200 million deal, the richest in franchise history. If Correa is able to stay healthy and perform at a high level, the deal could reach as high as 10 years, $270 million, only $15 million less than they originally offered him. But now the question on everyone’s mind is this: Can Correa stay healthy? Both the Giants and Mets reportedly did not like what they saw on MRI and physical examination regarding his surgically-repaired ankle that he fractured when he was 19 years old and in the minor leagues. What exactly was seen hasn’t been reported, but generally speaking, there are only a couple of pathologies—such as arthritis—that could result in the teams’ physicians taking the stance they did. I do not have inside information on Correa’s condition and this is only educated speculation on my part. (For what it’s worth, the Twins’ doctors were also aware of the status of Correa’s ankle and felt confident enough in its structure to hand out a multi-hundred million dollar deal.) The stench of the Giants’ and Mets’ findings resulted in Correa losing $150 million from what was originally promised to him, a fact that must sting deep within his core. Correa’s agent, Scott Boras, implied that the interpretation of the MRI his client underwent was the primary instigator behind his struggles to land with a team. “[T]his scenario is about a large separation in the orthopedic community about functional fitness and clinical exam versus looking at an MRI,” Boras said during Correa’s introductory press conference. “It is a dramatic chasm between how some doctors feel and how other doctors feel about the longevity of a player’s performance.” Boras is right on the money. Many doctors—particularly orthopedic doctors—subscribe to what is known as the biomedical model. To boil it down simply, the biomedical model believes that health is defined by the absence of pathology. To apply it to Correa, his ankle cannot be healthy because something was found on MRI; in other words, the ankle is something to be concerned about moving forward. In many ways, the biomedical model of health is logical, which is why it was so heavily adopted by doctors, particularly in the United States, upon its introduction. However, logic and the body don’t always mesh well. Let’s take MRIs for example. MRIs—which stand for magnetic resonance imaging—are wonderful for diagnosing soft tissue injuries, both those that are acute or chronic in nature. If an athlete tears their ACL or strains their hamstring, the extent and exact location of the damage is often determined by MRI. However, some in the field of orthopedics use what is found on MRI as a way to predict what will happen in the future. The thinking goes something like this: “Well, that individual has a tear in their meniscus. It may not bother them now, but it will in the future, so we better take care of it now.” Again, this is a perspective based in logic. Damaged tissue or bone is “not normal” (i.e. pathological), the thought goes, and therefore must be remedied (i.e. turn the pathology back to health). However, over the decades, MRI’s ability to accurately predict future injury has been found to be dubious, at best. The meniscus tear or arthritis in the back don’t always come back to haunt the individual; sometimes they simply lay dormant, never causing disruption. This isn’t logical and is a big reason why many in orthopedics—including myself, full disclosure—believe more in relying on past performance and abilities. “Functional fitness,” as Boras referred to it, is more concerned about “what have you done and what can you do” than “what could happen?” Carlos Correa has never once gone on the injured list nor has he ever missed time due to ankle pain over the last decade. He has accumulated 32.3 fWAR, won a Platinum Glove, and is on pace to finish his career as a Hall of Famer. Sure, he may have some arthritis and/or some metal in his ankle, but it’s never impacted his ability to perform. Why all of a sudden should we think it will now or anytime in the future? “One thing I learned throughout the whole process is that doctors have a difference of opinions,” Correa said during his press conference. “I had a lot of doctors tell me I was fine and I had some who said I wasn’t so fine.” That is really all that Correa’s rollercoaster offseason boils down to. We like to think that medicine is a completely objective field. Players undergo tests, the results are read, and a decision is made. However, much of orthopedics—and especially physical exams—contain a fair amount of subjectivity. Doctors often have differing opinions; that’s why second opinions exist (and aren’t called second “facts”). The Giants and Mets clearly had a larger issue with Correa’s ankle than the Twins, but that doesn’t inherently mean that the Twins are wrong (or, to be fair, does it mean they are inherently right). An additional factor in play during Correa’s free agency discussions, it should be noted, was the sheer volume of his potential contracts and the ability for a team to insure such a deal. Suffice it to say, either the Giants or the Mets could have gotten their deals with Correa insured with relatively little issue. (The Twins did, after all.) However, what both teams seemingly did was use Correa’s MRI findings to justify backing out of their agreement and offer something more paltry in return. The Mets took it even a step further. Their final offer to Correa was a six-year deal for $157.5 million, exactly half of their original, with multiple non-guaranteed years contingent on him passing a yearly physical. Additionally, according to USA Today's Bob Nightengale, they employed the opinion from the exact same orthopedic doctor as the Giants. (Said Boras, "I don’t understand the Mets. I gave them all of the information. We had them talk to four doctors. They knew the issue the Giants had. And yet, they still call the same doctor the Giants used for his opinion. There was no new information. So why negotiate a contract if you were going to rely on the same doctor?") As Aaron Gleeman, John Bonnes, and Dan Hayes discussed astutely in a recent Gleeman and the Geek Patreon podcast, why would Correa agree to such a deal, especially after experiencing firsthand the Mets’ physical exam process? At the end of the day, the Mets, and to perhaps a lesser extent the Giants, tried to utilize Correa’s body against him in the name of saving money. What is particularly egregious is that the Mets knew full well that they may see something upon exam that they did not like. They agreed to sign him for 12 years and $315 million anyway, only to swiftly pull out the rug from underneath him. It’s perfectly acceptable for doctors to approach a condition with different viewpoints and opinions. However, the case of Carlos Correa exposed the potential impact differences of opinions—and perhaps outdated medical models—can have on an individual, especially when “just doing business” is involved. View full article

To be fair, Gallo had two 40 home run seasons before the juiced ball season.

The former Ranger, Yankee, and Dodger is perhaps the most statistically extreme player in all of MLB and that is what makes him a decent gamble for the Minnesota Twins. Image courtesy of Rob Schumacher, USA Today In the late spring of 2019, as temperatures rose in Texas and the night skies over Arlington were peppered with little white dots, a once-heralded prospect made an astonishing imprint on the game of baseball. You’d be forgiven for assuming that the increased heat was due to normal seasonal changes and that the little white dots were simply the stars in and around the Milky Way galaxy. No, both phenomenon were simply the result of Joey Gallo’s bat. Coming off back-to-back 40 home run seasons with a combined 114 wRC+, Gallo peppered the skies of the American League West with 22 home runs, often sending them into near orbit. He also elevated his triple slashline to a blistering .253/.389/.598 (.987) resulting in an MVP-esque 144 wRC+. Gallo was on track to more than double his fWAR (3.2) from the previous two seasons combined (5.9), but while his star burned hot and bright that summer, it ultimately went supernova after only 70 games thanks to a fractured hamate bone in his right wrist. He did not appear in a another game that year. Since his ill-fated 2019 campaign, Gallo has largely fallen back to earth. He was named to the American League All-Star team in 2021 before being shipped to the New York Yankees—an experience Gallo would later refer to as “rock bottom”—and registered a career-high 4.2 fWAR, but has yet to post an average above the Mendoza line or hit 40 home runs in a season over the last three years. Looking at the stats, it’s pretty easy to see why Gallo was so successful in 2019. It wasn’t because he was striking out less or walking more—his K% and BB% more or less stayed steady with his career numbers—nor was it because he was hitting the ball harder or adopting a new approach at the plate. The primary driver behind his success was a towering .368 BABIP, a value 43% higher than his career average. Suffice it to say that the odds of Gallo ever putting together another 70-game stretch similar to the one in 2019 are slim, but he doesn’t need to slash anywhere near .250/.390/.500 (.890) for a full season to find success with the Twins. (To be clear, if he did, Gallo would very likely be an MVP candidate.) Despite owning the highest strikeout rate in MLB history, Gallo has been 10% better than league average by wRC+ thanks to a fairly discerning eye at the plate as well as the aforementioned otherworldly power. Simply put, Gallo is a land of contrasts. Last summer he ranked in the 1st percentile in strikeout rate and Whiff% but in the 95th percentile in walk rate, which is consistent with his career numbers. He is also unlikely to bite on offerings that Statcast refers to as chase and waste pitches. He patiently waits for his pitch with such aptitude that he is worth positive runs even though he is, at best, 70/30 to hit pitches in the zone. (The MLB average zone contact rate is 82.0%. Gallo’s career number is 67.4%.) Gallo is the definition of a three true outcomes player. A laughably outrageous 59% of his career plate appearances have ended as either a strikeout, walk, or home run. In that sense, Gallo is Miguel Sanó on steroids. (A mere 54% of Sanó’s plate appearances resulted in one of the outcomes.) However, what separates Gallo from someone like Sanó—and why Gallo was the first of the two to sign a deal this offseason—is that he provides near elite defense in the outfield. Although he ranked in the 19th percentile in Outs Above Average last season, Gallo had consistently ranked in the top 25% of outfielders since 2017. He has a cannon for an arm, topping out on some throws near 95 mph, and has the ability to get a good jump on the ball. Defensively, Gallo isn’t all that far behind Max Kepler, an athlete who is considered to be among the best defensive corner outfielders in the game. So, basically, the Twins signed a corner outfielder that projects to be an amalgamation of some degree of Miguel Sanó’s offense and Max Kepler’s defense, which is a player well-worth a one-year, $11 million gamble. Steamer, one of the projection systems published on FanGraphs, projects Gallo to slash .188/.313/.397 (.710) with 19 home runs in 102 games next summer. That would give him a 107 wRC+ and 1.1 fWAR, almost exactly a value of $11 million. The signing of Joey Gallo is not the type of move that cements a solid offseason for the Twins in isolation, but it does allow them to potentially be a little more aggressive on the trade market, particularly when dangling Kepler or perhaps Luis Arraez and/or Trevor Larnach. If the Twins are able to swap some of their existing pieces for impact starting pitching or a shortstop, the Gallo acquisition could be seen as a boon, especially since he has largely been able to remain healthy for his career. It’s also possible that Gallo never rebounds from his morbid 2022 and is DFA’d before the season ends. However, the bar is so low for his projected offensive performance and his defense is so reliably good that it would take quite the drop in production, perhaps even more so than last season, for the Twins to simply give up on him. View full article