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Doctor Gast

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  1. Doctor Gast
    WAR especially BBRef is a very poor way to measure a catcher's value. If you read carefully my texts you'll see I'm a fan of Jeffers. But I'm not delusional, as a backup catcher he's a very good hitter with average-ish defense. As an equal tandem he starts out fine but as the season wanes so does he, leaving us with less-than-impressive results. As a primary catcher catching every day over an extended amount of time he falters & ends up on the IL. That's reality. Catching is very strenuous, most don't have the stamina to be a starting catcher. You have it or you don't, Jeffers doesn't have it & hoping doesn't make it so. Camargo's hitting like many shining star hitters in our system took a big dip in hitting as pitchers made drastic adjustments. Hitters like Severino have been cast aside. Slugging has been Cartaya & Camargo's calling card. Cartaya has made some slight improvements in defense & hopefully, he'll retain & continue to put into practice what he has learned at LAD. The barometer in how a prospect will produce at the MLB level is how they do in the higher MiLB. Cartaya's higher MiLB path has be underwhelming & slow. He has to dominate AAA before he gets a shot at MLB, according to his progress that won't be soon & his adjustment to MLB pitchers will be that much harder. I doubt either will be really MLB-ready this season (that's not to say they won't dip their toes). Those are my observations. I hope that Jeffers miraculously becomes that catcher that FO has envisioned him to be & I hope that Camargo & Cartaya are transformed but I don't see anything concrete to anchor that hope onto. I am so dogmatic on my stand because the course the FO have taken is disastrous & I'll try my best to have them steer away from it.
  2. Doctor Gast
    Bingo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Jeffers has been hyped as the Twins' primary catcher. Jeffers doesn't have the stamina to be anything more than a backup. I'm all in favor of keeping Jeffers as a backup but as Boras is his agent, he'll demand $15+M/yr. & because the Twins have done nothing to acquire a future catcher, he'll probably leverage 5yrs. Normally Boras likes to take his client into FA but in Jeffers case, he'd be happy with a nice extension. That is if they are stupid enough to extend Jeffers this season. If they make Jeffers catch every day this season he'll quickly falter & fall on the IL, like he did in '22. In his last year of availability, he'll be worthless & we get nothing for him & we'll have nothing because the Twins placed their hope on him beyond rationale. It was more beneficial to have traded him last season but we can still get something for him if we trade him this season, But for us to do that we have to have a future starting MLB-ready catcher & backup to plug into the gap. It's a great idea to extend & renegotiate a more reasonable Vazquez contract. Vazquez mentoring the upcoming catchers will secure a much better-catching core in the future.
  3. Doctor Gast
    If the Pohlads want to sell the team, they have to put forth a competitive team that fans want to watch. Picking up non-MLB-ready Cartaya and Gasper to pair with AAAA Camargo is worse than doing nothing. By picking up these players, they delude themselves into thinking they have solved the problem when they fall way short. Catcher isn't a position to take lightly, this type of thinking will prove very disastrous.
  4. Doctor Gast
    I was thinking the same thing Gregg. I thought Prielipp was going to the pen, he might make it to the bigs, he's a LHP, we need a LHRP. You add everything up, it all adds up. His health is my main concern & his control especially having TJ. Committing him to the BP is a step in the right direction. Hope it all works out because we could really use his stuff, I also put Canterino in that camp. They have to be managed right.
  5. Doctor Gast
    I get where you are coming from Cody. One day Vazquez will be gone, I can't see them extending Jeffers. So we have to have 2 promising MLB-ready catchers ready to be mentored to take over the reins of the most critical position, to help the Twins compete now & into the future. But unfortunately, we don't have them in the system. IMO Camargo has peaked out at AAAA. Cartaya has floundered at AAA & needs to dominate there. He won't be MLB-ready this year, he could be a decent backup catcher down the road. Gasper should never catch at the MLB level. We could have used a promising young MLB-ready catcher last season to help spell Jeffers in the 2nd half when he ran out of gas. Then expand him in '25. We could obtain one who's blocked, using players or prospects but for the 2nd we'd need to trade Jeffers to lure a competing team to let go of their future catcher. WARNING: Jeffers or Vazquez alone with what we got would be super dangerous to the condition of the team.
  6. Doctor Gast
    I agree with everything you say. In the near future, CWS will develop some good pitchers.
  7. Doctor Gast
    Miranda is our best option at 1B, he has very good upside. I know I'll get a lot of backlash from this but FO made a lot of bad decisions last season. One was making Julien the main 2Bman & because of Julien's inadequacy, they made their 2nd bad decision of by-passing our inhouse bats for an outhouse glove. Santana did a lot of cheating to try to compensate for Julien. This gave Santana a lot of opportunities to look good but what made me sick was when I was able to watch the Twins, I saw a lot of balls going for hits near the 1B line because Santana was playing out of position to cover for Julien. When Correa was down not able to cover for Julien, then everybody could see Julien's warts. If we had gone with a better 2Bman with decent range & a smooth DP play we could have gone inhouse better bats Miranda & Kiriloff who were coming off the IL due to shoulder injuries. Miranda & Kiriloff had great stats while healthy, but they couldn't play 1B because Santana was cemented there. Playing 1B (like they did with Keaschal) could have kept them healthy & continue their mashing. Instead, they were places where they constantly needed to use their shoulders, to compensate they hurt their shoulders. Resulting in bad stats & ending up on the IL & ending Kiriloff's career. Kiriloff not making that simple play at 1B during the playoffs has been unfairly burned into our minds (including especially Baldelli) carrying a stigma that Kiriloff can't play 1B but that poor play was also an effect of a bad shoulder. 1B was a wasted year because there was no future development there & no added value attributed to Miranda & Kiriloff. To avoid another wasted year of MLB development at 1B. We have to stick with Miranda at 1B to keep him healthy so he can keep on mashing & raise the quality at 1B. We do need a backup for Miranda, I do not see Julien as one. Julien could develop into an ok glove but I don't see him overcoming the major adjustment the league made with him, especially his hitting to meet the profile. Miranda also hits RHPs better which erases Julien as a platoon. Gasper? Ford? Lewis could be an immediate solution, Keaschal a later one. I also thought of Solano but he's gone. (BH) Polanco could be a better & cheaper option that could add a lot of leadership & clubhouse chemistry. 1B could also save Polanco's knees where he can return to his productive self.
  8. Doctor Gast
    Just what we need, another Margot/ Gallo etc. type player, a 1Bman who can't hit with a high price tag. A Falvey creative play. We dodged the bullet by not signing Hoskins last season. Why would we want to take one this season? Hoskins is done, he's a terrible option at 1B. Besides having a terrible 1B, who's paying for his bloated salary? We'll end up having a larger budget problem and we'll end up in the same place next year, not developing our MLB 1B. MIL would love to get rid of him but they don't need an overpaid defensive catcher. And guess what? We are desperate for a defensive catcher especially one who knows & works well with our pitchers. Who relaces Vazquez? Camargo? Cartaya?Gasper? Even rotating these guys through, it'll still end up as a train wreck with Jeffers taking the primary catcher role. A devasted prime position catching core will take us to a worse position than last season no matter how good we look on Falvey's spreadsheet. In the end, Falvey will go to the FA scrap heap to acquire an expensive bandaid to try to fix this gaping wound. Paddack can help MIL but they'll want a smaller price tag. In summation, a terrible hitting 1Bman, unfulfilled future 1B development because Hoskins will be cemented at 1B no matter how bad he is, a worsen budget crunch especially after going to the FA scrap heap, a terrible catching core & possibly worsened pitching core as a result. No, thank you. I'm sorry that I'm a little harse but I want to squash this type of Falvey-type narrow thinking that permeates social media.
  9. Doctor Gast
    Off the top of my head, LAD did not want Margot but to get Glasnow he was added to the deal. SEA didn't want DeSclavani but to acquire Ray & Haniger he was added. We can add Dobnak to a deal that where it fills a big need for a different team & using player's trade values that could cover Dobnak's $3M. If Dobnak serves no purpose then MN'd eat the $3M. Dobnak is a safety valve that we can bring up in the SP or RP role in a pinch & then DFA him when not needed. MN has one of the best pitching core in MLB, if they can use him then many inferior teams (CO for example) could use him much more after receiving him basically for free.
  10. Doctor Gast
    Yeah, MIL & SEA could really use Castro but there is one other team that needs Castro even more. & that is MN! Castro was the Twins' MVP for a reason! & that is because MN gets hurt a lot at the premium positions. Trading away Castro would be a big mistake because we have no one in-house that can take his place. You can't find in FA, & if you could he'd be too expensive. & no one who had one on their team they would normally not be stupid enough to trade him. If we need a salary dump trade Paddack & forget about Castro. I'd be interested in (MIL) Jefferson Quero but would rather use INFer Julien instead.
  11. Doctor Gast
    I am ok with not spending a dime in FA. If there has to be a salary dump, I challenge the FO to truly be creative & trade away replaceable Paddack & Dobnak. IMO it's not creative to trade away needed & difficult to replace players, then replace them with inferior players to acquire outhouse players we don't need, blocking deserving inhouse players that desperately need that MLB experience. Only FA move I'd be in favor of was Solano, since he's gone a better solution is Jorge Polanco, who can learn 1B to save his knees & backup Miranda & also can play 2B & DH.
  12. Doctor Gast
    That's my take also. There's a big difference between our #1-3 from our #4 &5, even more going down the line as far as stamina & ability. Except I don't like the idea of trading Lopez, Ober & Ryan. IMO good pitching trumps good hitting. I'm a big fan of long relief as far as giving the rotation & BP a break.
  13. Doctor Gast
    Between 2004- 2022, STL Cards won a ton of play-off games, 12X Division Champs; 9X NLC- Champs 4X; 4X WS, champs 2X. Towards the end of that they acquired Goldsmith & Arenardo. In '23 while still basically having the same team they added the best MLB hitting catcher Wilson Contreras who was also an above-average defensive catcher. The Cards were expected to be better but they tanked. They blamed poor pitching stability, lack of team leadership & chemistry, & bad catching. You can sum all that up to no Molina. Molina never piled up hugh WAR or was noted for his hitting but he was an elite catcher that was good at all the intangibles. I don't care how well the Twins look on paper or if they have a catcher who has a .700 OPS. But unless you have a great defensive catcher who commands the pitching, the field & has a feel for the game you are just spinning your wheels.
  14. Doctor Gast
    Thank you Cody for this informative & encouraging article. I don't get all the complaining about this article. Normally TD readers go ga ga over ZIPs. Last season everyone was eating up all the hype around Paddack pitching 150 innings & being the next Gray, the great addition of DeSclavani & Topa plus all the fringe RPs that never panned out. All to make us forget the loss of Gray & no significant replacement. Besides all of this Duran had a slow start & his attitude never really came back. Theilbar lost his edge & Stewart got injured. But Jax was a bright spot in the BP, along with Sands & Alcala, when he was managed properly after a long absence on the IL. Hype is like an inflated balloon, I get the big let down but as this article states this BP still has a lot of potential. Anchored by Jax, IMO Duran was underappreciated in his fireman role. Leave Duran in the closer role & IMO his attitude could return. Alcala would be 1 more year removed from his surgery but I'd still avoid him from pitching multiple innings & consecutive appearances to begin the season. Stewart said he feels better than last year, he too should be monitored. The only debatable weakness I see is a high-leverage LHRP spot left by Theilbar. I'm not confident with Funderburg or Headrick. So we can trade from our strength (Topa & Tonkin, I don't hate Tonkin but I'd prefer RPs with options) & pick up a high-leverage LHRP (not another Okert or Richards) to make us better. I'm a believer in Varland in the BP & that Canterino & Preilipp could be big contributors in the BP. If the salary dump becomes void Paddack could also be a force at some time in the BP.
  15. Doctor Gast
    I understood from the initial announcement that the new owners could take over by Opening Day. This new announcement seems like a delay & the Pohlads are trying to squeeze more money out of the deal. Hurry up & announce the Ishbia bros. as the new owners & get out of the way, Pohlads.
  16. Doctor Gast
    To reiterate what said, It's too bad that there wasn't a Carl Pohlad's son that was as passionate about the Twins as Bill was about artistic movies. That their mother Eloise, who was noted as a Twins fan, didn't have more influence in this area.
  17. Doctor Gast
    I hope Serrano becomes a very good MLB player. But IMO it's a poor consolation prize. I'm sorry if I'm not excited about this crop beyond Sasaki.
  18. Doctor Gast
    Last offseason was filled with spending money on fringe RPs that never panned out. Adding DeSclavani & Margot's salaries were a waste of money plus Margot took up a valuable roster spot for the whole season & valuable MLB experience for Keirsey. If they had done nothing I would have given them a C because we still had a very good core, if they had filled a couple of minor holes via trades I'd have given them a B+. The idea of the offseason is to become better for the season & seasons to come. But since they spent money & we became worse not only that we did nothing to better ourselves for this season, then I gave them a F. This season I'd still give them a C if they do nothing. Like last offseason they have done a lot of busy stuff acquiring fringe catchers & 1Bmen that won't make an impact on the team this year. Cartaya could help us next year but not this year. If they trade Vazquez or Castro, I'd give them a D, if they trade both, I'd give them another F & expect another poor season because it'd be hard to replace them. If they have to cut salary & trade Paddack, I'd give them a C+ because Paddack is replaceable. If they don't trade Castro & Vazquez & trade for a high-leverage LHRP then I'd give them a B. If they trade for at least 1 promising young MLB-ready future starting catcher then I'd give them an A. There is a clear path to have a very successful offseason but that means to stop sitting around & waiting, get up & take that path
  19. Doctor Gast
    14th in OPS in the INT, League is pretty darn good for a true CFer. If he was DH, 1B or even RFer then we'd have something to worry about. Cave isn't & never was a decent CFer. Only if (which many people make the mistake) you gauge CF by bat only.
  20. Doctor Gast
    I know you love platooning Brian but my idea is whenever they'd sub Buxton they'd do it against RHPs thus Keirsey would be our best choice. Although Martin was a much better choice over Margot, I'd still minimize his time at CF & Castro is stretched there. For being a LH hitter, Keirsey has pretty good splits vs. LHPs. When Buxton is down for any amount of time, Keirsey makes the most sense because as you indicated, most pitchers are RHPs. As I stated before Larnach should have the most time DHing & emergency OF, so when Castro is subbing someone which is most of the time that leaves a space for Keirsey to fill in at LF when he isn't subbing Buxton. So even following their platooning mentality Keirsey makes a lot of sense, especially when you look how our defense stacks up w/o him. I can't see Julien making the active list. He's not a 2Bman & he has a long way to adjust his hitting & learn 1B. But Julien is one of their pets so it doesn't matter if he's good at either.
  21. Doctor Gast
    That's why I put him with the RH OFers. RH OFers- Buxton, Martin, (BH) Castro & Helman. I placed Helman last because he's not on the active roster & indicated Castro as a switch hitter who is used as a RH OF. But thanks anyway.
  22. Doctor Gast
    Keirsey is a very underrated, a player who has greatly proved himself at the AAA level, The fact that he is a little late bloomer & that the Twins have held him back at AAA is not his fault but the fault of Twins' philosophy. Many have written him off before he is even given a chance to play at MLB. Which is a grave mistake. Yeah, let's pick up another Margot or Gallo that makes a lot more sense. Give Keirsey, like Castro, a chance to prove himself before casting stones. "Ace in the hole" is an American English idiom that means a hidden advantage or resource that's kept secret until it's needed Buxton is our top performer that's not the intent of my comment but Keirsey is a hidden (he's overlooked) gem that is very much needed when played will amaze a lot of people & put us over the top.
  23. Doctor Gast
    Don't tell me they are putting Keirsey on hold again while they are looking for their next Margot/ Gallo? Theoretically, Larnach is DH, Castro is LF, Keirsey is the 4th OF, and Martin is utility. LH OFers- Keirsey, Wallner & Larnach; RH OFers- Buxton, Martin, (BH) Castro & Helman. Buxton needs to be our main RH CFer & Keirsey our main LH CFer. This backward thinking killed us last season. If we want to be a serious team, the 4th OFer has to be Keirsey's to lose.
  24. Doctor Gast
    OMG, thanks Peter for opening our eyes, for taking time to uncover all this dirt. I've been led to believe that Carl Pohlads kept the Twins from being bought by outside buyers & moved out of state. The Feldman story is heart-wrenching. Just think we can thank Pohlad for our present airline situation. Although we can't blame him for Covid or 911.
  25. Doctor Gast
    ML Ready, anyone that has a slight interest in stocks, dreams of getting into Apple when they started up. I have & also futilely mapped out how much $ I'd have made. I'm not a billionaire, but I assume most billionaires don't amass their billions by not buying stocks (unless they create an investment firm) but buying businesses. You have some control over your business, you don't with stocks. I'm not a contentious person & I don't fault anyone over their opinions. But I do find fault with Bean5302's snidely off-remark while quoting me. Otherwise, I'd have ignored his remark. Any money the Pohlads sunk into the team after they bought it is an operational cost, which is considered part of the decision to make a profit and rightsizing. Which is not under debate.
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