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Doctor Gast

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Everything posted by Doctor Gast

  1. Doctor Gast
    The BP & rotation was hurting long before the last 6 weeks. There were many games we should have won prior to that. Many times there is a fine line between winning & losing. I agree that the lack of a high-end LHRP was not the only reason for our downfall. As I stated lack of depth in the rotation & chemistry had a lot also to do with it. We had the offense but they weren't able to pull up the nose to avoid the crash. If we want to make it to the postseason we have to address every viable solution. In June, If we got a high-end LHRP when I suggested it, could have we won more games? Most definitely. Could have we avoided the slump? Maybe. Could have we cut the slump short? It's likely. In doing so could we have made the postseason? It's likely but I don't think we would have gone far because of the condition of the team.
  2. Doctor Gast
    Why don't you guys actually read what I write? I gave Puk's value at 1.5 in mid-June surplus value do you have any idea how many of our low-3rd tier prospects were higher than that? Gonzalez is a super-hyped prospect before we got him his surplus value was 13.1, because of the hype people were willing to pay that for him. many can't distinguish the hype, again his value has dropped to 3.1. There are other teams & Twins still value Gonzalez (he's still MN#7) & are willing to overpay for him. But that is beside the point of there were high-leverage LHRPs that could be had reasonably. AZ traded for Puk at the deadline, a slight overpay with prospects which is very reasonable for the deadline. Puk 8.1 to Deyvison De Los Santos 8.0 plus a throw-in. Which was in line with Gonzalez's value. Gonzalez had been in MN's top 5. Again my point was to trade well before the deadline so you don't have to pay a premium.
  3. Doctor Gast
    "There aren't any trades out there." I've been he told that for years. Here are 2 trade offers I made in June,'24 https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/168177 https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/168590 In the 1st you see Severino straight up for Pukk. 2nd you see a wide variety of trade surplus trade values Gabriel Gonzalez at 11, AJ Pukk at 1.5 & in a trade just after this one I had a trade for Tanner Scott at 4.5 surplus value. MIA was motivated to trade, we could have landed both Pukk & Scott very cheaply if we acted quickly to our needs. You sit & wait until the end high-end RP becomes more expensive & the last day you'll pick up the scraps. Here's another trade in July, Gonzalez 8.0 for Pukk 7.1, still a bargain. https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/171074 Gonzalez is a 3rd tier prospect that shouldn't ever make the Twins. His surplus trade value is now 3.1 , I expect it to fall further.
  4. Doctor Gast
    Prospect hugging is a big part of why we didn't make the postseason. We had a couple of small holes that could have been easily resolved by trading a couple of 3rd tier prospects without touching any 1st or 2nd tier. One in particular that was masquerading as 1st tier (Gonzalez). Primary, a mid-rotation inning eater to give much-needed depth, later a high-leverage LHRP were our real needs. That wasn't properly addressed. IMO we have a pretty good farm, the primary purpose of the farm is to stock the MLB club directly or indirectly through trades. Why keep the farm bloated with 3rd tier players, when we can use them in trade?
  5. Doctor Gast
    This team could easily become better than last season. The subtraction of Margot is our greatest addition. Because Margot was a Falvey's addition he was given a valuable roster spot, every opportunity to succeed & superior Martin & Keirsey was shafted much to the detriment of the Twins. I see here again that inferior, Gasper. Fangraph projected him not playing a single game for BOS in '25. Gasper is a break glass-only player, which I question that he should even have a roster spot much less a spot on the active roster. Martin is a far superior player, Martin is a natural 2Bman, Twins have to do their job & work with him a lot in the OF this offseason & spring training & ease him into there. Like Margot, I'm not surprised if the Twins make this move but I am enraged. Passing up a superior in-house player for an inferior Falvey's out-house one is not an intelligent move.
  6. Doctor Gast
    Gonzalez is a free swinger much like Astudillo, the big difference is that Astudillo had a glove & would play anywhere & hustled, while Gonzalez doesn't. He's limited to RF. Gonzalez became overrated at the end of '23 to make the top 100 because somebody supposed he could develop power. SEA knew it & shopped him hard. Like usual MN bit. His BTV surplus value rose from around 6 to 13.1 & a year later dropped to 3.1. He not going to get better, his best value was in trade but now we won't get much for him as I predicted a year ago.
  7. Doctor Gast
    It's down to 2.6 now
  8. Doctor Gast
    IMO past metrics led TOR & MN to believe that Martin had what it took to be a slugger. Once comfortable & confident in being a MLBer that'll come around.
  9. Doctor Gast
    Besides a handful of teams of wanting to buy a WS- LAD, NYM & NYY & contending wannabes BOS & AZ there hasn't been a lot of noise in FA. PHI's big splash is Kepler who was paid the same that the Twins paid last year. ATL some split contracts. There has been some significant trades that moved the needle but very few teams are doing very much. The AL Central has done little except trade away talent. CLE made a creative TOR/CLE/PIT maneuver to get the piece they wanted. Besides the Beiber show me extension and FA Santana, they are a worse team. KC has done nothing. There has been a lot talk about DET but so far nothing. Like last offseason, we are in a good position to compete. 1st we need to find our real needs & make the reasonable trades needed to fill those needs. Last year, at least a mid-rotation SP & later a high-leverage LHRP via minor trade, that's all, we didn't. But pick up a bunch of fringe RPs that didn't pan out, a broken down 5th SP, Margot & Santana all who we really didn't need. 2nd not be "creative" & compromise the core. This offseason, we still need a high-leverage LHRP (Nardi), a promising young MLB-ready defensive catcher to help out our ailing catching core & a RH platoon player (Romy Gonzalez) to sub at 1B or anywhere else. & not a bunch of fringe MLB, AAA players to see if any stick. This is the difference of being AL Central champs from another 4th place finish.
  10. Doctor Gast
    I didn't read the whole article but it's great to see stats that finally lined up what I saw in the MiLB., thanks Matthew for writing this article. Throughout MiLB he was told, he was a power SS, In MLB, Margot was not a viable CF sub he also took up a valuable roster spot so we couldn't call up Keirsey so Martin we'll throw you into the mess. We need to baby Margot so guess what Martin you get the crappy situations. The way they used Martin was a heck of a way to break in a rookie. No wonder Martin has had difficulty showing who he really is because he hasn't been allowed to. So who is Austin Martin? IMO he is an ideal lead-off hitter who has great potential to get on base, take & steal an extra base, be a demon on the basepath to shake up pitchers to provoke wild pitches & walks, for hitters behind him to have good pitches to hit & spark rallies. A natural 2Bman who's athletic enough to be eased into the OF when needed. All that Martin has gone through, it'd be easy to let those things affect you. But Martin is spunky, he'll bounce back. Now that Margot is gone we'll have a chance to see who he really is. A type A nonathletic player who hits a lot of HRs when we don't need them has a high OPS, but a type B player who gets on base, who takes and steals extra bases, be a demon on the basepath to shake up the pitchers, so he throws the ball away, gives the hitters behind him pitches to hit or walks, then he scores & sparks a rally. All that does not affect OPS. I ask you which player would you choose? Most statheads who live & die by OPS will always pick Player A & totally spurn Player B. But I'd pick Player B every time & I'd give him every opportunity to prove himself. Hope the the Twins can see the same thing.
  11. Doctor Gast
    I've changed my mind on Cartaya, his defense has improved. His hitting is slow to come around but IMO it's there. Just need a lot of patience until it does. He has 1 more option. If his defense wasn't that good, no way. Maybe trade them a newly selected draftee catcher & let them see what they do with him.
  12. Doctor Gast
    We wouldn't get enough for Castro for what we'll lose. After trading Vazquez & quickly finding out that we need another expensive FA catcher we end up saving nothing & still have a bad catching core for years to come with no help in sight. We need that creativity that Falvey has been talking about to move Dobnak. Moving Paddack & Jeffers shouldn't be that hard & can be cheaply replaced.
  13. Doctor Gast
    Cartaya was LAD top prospect a few years ago. He has fallen a lot. If LAD has given up on him, He isn't MLB ready, I doubt we can do anything with him. But we can dream.
  14. Doctor Gast
    I heard about Hart a while ago & was intrigued. Thanks, Cody for shedding some light on him. Being a soft-throwing lefty as a SP makes me queasy. IMO most everybody would think the same so landing him as a RP could be possible at a lower cost. If anybody wants him as a starter they can have him. We can always trade for a high-leverage LHRP if we don't wait too long.
  15. Doctor Gast
    There's a lot of very good young promising MLB-Ready catchers out there. Teel is my favorite because of his defense and he's also a very good hitter who hits the ball hard & doesn't K very often & IMO the HRs will come, Rushing & Jefferson Quero (MIL) are next both are great. The list goes on Harry Ford (SEA), Edgar Quero (CWS) the most underrated is (SH) Drew Romo (CO) a very good defensive catcher who once given the opportunity can hit, his power will eventually come. (SH) Cole Carrigg (CO) has been put on the shelf for a while but IMO has the greatest potential of becoming an elite catcher. I get very excited at the possibility of trading for at least one of these catchers & see the need for 2. I have put in a lot of reasonable trade offers on many different catchers with good responses.
  16. Doctor Gast
    A lot to talk about so I'll just limit this to Mountcastle. IMO I'd take Miranda over Mountcastle because both are simular but Miranda has a better bat & at 1B that's what we want. 3B is tough on Miranda's arm & should be kept at 1B. If we pick up Mountcastle, he'd be the mainstay at 1B. It is another wasted year for Miranda to become the 1Bman we want & need, stalling his value to the team. If Miranda played last year primarily at 1B his value & WAR would be much higher now. If we trade Miranda now for example we'd be selling very low on him. Mountcastle is pretty much a finished product at 1B with 2yrs of control. IMO Miranda has much more upside & we have 4 more years to work with him. I'd rather invest in Miranda at 4 yrs. than Mountcastle's 2 with 2 more years leaving Miranda undeveloped at 1B & more apt to get reinjured at 3B keeping his value lower than what it should be
  17. Doctor Gast
    1yr of May at 6.8 + Rushing 36.3= 43.1 Duran 24.7 + Castro 8.9 = 33.6 Sorry TopGun Castros value has dropped a lot at BTV since all the trade talk. But Rushing is a great target.
  18. Doctor Gast
    Some teams with only an inkling that Sasaki would make that jump, were quick to reach out to Sasaki. That makes a difference to see the teams that had interest in him, to let him know he's wanted. MN has a lot to offer Sasaki. This isn't a Sasaki sweepstake, it's a beauty contest with teams to see which team will be the most attractive to Sasaki. It's Falvey job to convey to Sasaki that we really want him & highlight to him all the good qualities of the Twins & how we can make him into the best SP of all time & a good person at the same time. Chpetit19 has a heartbeat for where Falvey is at, it seems that we shouldn't get our hopes too high. But I'll still hope against hope.
  19. Doctor Gast
    Many teams & some are very competitive teams have done basically nothing in FA. PHI major addition is Kepler paying him what we paid for him last offseason. ATL only signed a couple of minor split contracts, CLE has been praised for signing Santana after trading away slugging 1Bman Josh Naylor to save about $2M. I'd take 1 yr. of Naylor over 1yr. of Santana any day. I may seem like a broken record. There seems like a ton of pressure to dip into FA, if you don't you're a loser. But smart teams that in our situation try to avoid FA. We should have built on the core we had from '23 last season but we didn't & the moves we made then made us weaker. We still have most of the core intact & I agree with you Gregg that it shouldn't be hard to make us into a competitive playoff team. Last offseason Twins focused on a lot of fringe RPs that never panned out. But when we needed a high-leverage LHRP they balked (we still need one). We also needed a viable SP, they got broken down 5th SP. To be a viable contender we need to be strong up the middle- SS good, CF very good, 2B better w/o Julien, catcher?. Catching is our weak point, If we dial back Jeffers to weak-side tandem, Vazquez as our bandage we can be slightly above average & serviceable. BUT what others are proposing of trading Vazquez thus thrusting Jeffers into primary catcher duty with poor backup will spell disaster much like '22. We absolutely need a future tandem of promising young MLB-ready catchers to be mentored so that in the future when we need to rip off the bandaid (Vazquez) they can step up & take over. I have a lot of trust in Keirsey to step up & be a very competent backup in CF & will surprise us with his offense. The Emma will be up before you know it. Miranda will finally get his chance to stay relatively healthy & mash at 1B. A quality RH platoon bat at 1B/RF would be nice but obtaining a bunch of fringe replacement players for 1B/ C & throwing them at the wall to see if any stick isn't a very good strategy. This offseason can be simple if they don't be creative with the core, stay out of FA & fill needed holes via trade. But this wait & see approach makes it more difficult.
  20. Doctor Gast
    IMO Margot was more a mandate.
  21. Doctor Gast
    Thielbar is a magician, always pulling a rabbit out of the hat when there seemed nothing there. I was hoping him able to do it one more time as a Twin. But I guess it didn't fit into the wait-and-see cards. But as a Minnesotan at heart, I'm very proud of him & wish him the very best. Thank you Caleb for many memorable performances, you'll be missed.
  22. Doctor Gast
    Not everybody in baseball has their heart in it. Ask Rendon or Derek Bender. They may have talent to play, in analytics or in the business side of the game they may even like the game but not love it.
  23. Doctor Gast
    I believe Tingler's main job is to pre-analyze possible future situations so they can promptly have the analytical solution if & when they occur.
  24. Doctor Gast
    As far as being a lame duck, it isn't really pertinent when it comes to baseball. Players in the last year of their contract don't just float through, they try their best so they can resign or sign for a better contract. If Baldelli really loves baseball, which I think a prerequisite for a manager should be, he'll do his best to get resigned or make it easier to find the next job.
  25. Doctor Gast
    I like Falvey & really like Baldelli. Falvey was signed to develop a pitching pipeline, he has slowly but surely done so. But IMO he is almost in everything else incompetent yet he wants to control everything. So he has put yes men in key positions- Zoll, Baldelli, Tinglers, Conger & Watkins. Analytics is very important but it's not the end all. Analytics, w/o the right philosophy or fundamentals, is useless also IMO there has to be a balance & MLB experience & feel for the game are more important. We are imbalanced where weird analysis rules & we need to clean house, that means Tinglers, Conger & Watkins are gone. Falvey's duties are limited to the business & pitching departments., Keep Zoll where he was & get a GM who is able to initiate & close essential trades, IMO that is the most important duty of a GM the rest can be delegated. I said all that to emphasize that Baldelli was put in a position to fail. Baldelli has the potential to become a very good manager. In '19, it'd have been more beneficial to have kept Molitor, let him run the show & put Baldelli as bench manager to help Molitor with the analytics & at the same time glean from Molitor's baseball knowledge. Baldelli's early success came from balanced bench coaches Derek Sheldon & Mike Bell's guidance. Tingler was the extreme opposite. IMO the best solution is to demote Baldelli to bench coach & let him learn to be a manager the right way. But for that to happen, there needs to be changes.
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