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Doctor Gast

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Everything posted by Doctor Gast

  1. Doctor Gast
    Why did MIA traded Arraez in April or May? IMO they didn't get that much for him. Why didn't they hold on to him until the very end of the deadline? If they had gotten a reasonable offer on Puk when his #s weren't good due to the failed SP experiment with a lot of negative hype they would have bitten. Even most of the season Scott wasn't given much opportunity to shine. MIA like MN had a big Fire Sale sign up. Their big ticket was Luzardo but nobody gave them any serious offer. Then Luzardo got hurt, & that ended their hopes for a hay day. After that they were willing to deal on any reasonable offer. Towards the end of the deadline Scott was their only hope for any payday so they held out on him. I was surprised that MIA didn't wait for Luzardo's trade value to go up at the deadline, instead of trading him now when his trade value was low. But like I said MIA is gun shy. If someone'll give me a good deal on Dobnak, Paddack, Jeffers or Julien any time before the deadline. I'm not going to say no I'm waiting for the deadline when they are up for sale. I'm going to jump on it. No stat is the real world, stats are far from perfect. BTV is no different. But it is an unbiased tool to gauge a player's trade worth at any given time. Yes hype is a factor but unfortunately so is it in the real world. If you want to be a good trader you have to weed through all the positive & negative hype & find the good deals & conditions & strike. Not wait around for scrapes.
  2. Doctor Gast
    Last year if we had done nothing we would have been a better team. This year if they don't trade Castro, Vazquez or any core player we'll be better than any outside move. Julien has to be sent down to AAA until he proves he can play 1B (he can't play 2B) & be able to hit to profile there which'll be a long time. Trade him. Jeffers has been very consistent, he's very good at the backup catcher, beyond that the more he plays the worse he becomes. We can't afford the extension that he doesn't deserve. We desperately need a promising MLB-ready catcher, trade Jeffers.
  3. Doctor Gast
    I was surprised also that nothing was said about his catching ability which should be the 1st thing we need to look at. We desperately need a promising young defensive catcher, is he MLB-ready? He's not MLB-ready but neither is Carmargo, could the Twins make him a better catcher in offense or defense if we keep him AAA? I doubt it, catchers don't miraculously get better. We have to get a very promising defensive MLB-ready catcher & hope for the best. No matter what we do if we trade Vazquez, it'll be a train wreck waiting to happen. LAD gave away Lux to the Reds, why do they like to fleece us?
  4. Doctor Gast
    MiLB contract never hurts. So many DH/1B/cOFers were the all-or-nothing style that slumped I don't give much hope that they'll turn it around & have anything semblance of prior success.
  5. Doctor Gast
    BTV is like any stat, it's not perfect but it's a tool to give you an unbiased idea.
  6. Doctor Gast
    I think CLE got a Compensation B draft choice + lotto ticket & got Santana for $12M Naylor for $14M + Compensation A draft choice Again I'd prefer by far Naylor.
  7. Doctor Gast
    I agree Julien should be far removed from this list. '24 wasn't just a sophomore slump, it was the league having the book on his style of hitting. So he has to reinvent himself to be less of an HR hitter which doesn't profile at 1B or like Sano not adjusting at all. Either way, he loses. So far Raya although he has some potential hasn't proved anything yet. It's a shame Miranda isn't higher, if he had been at 1B he'd have been much higher. I'd place SWR & Correa higher but it's hard to put into perspective when you don't see who you placed ahead of them.
  8. Doctor Gast
    OMG NO! Why would you want to extend a catcher that "in your words" hasn't proved himself as a primary catcher? He's a backup catcher. Look at his record, every year he's backup '20 & 23, he does well. '22 when was given primary catching duties he crashed & burned. '21 & '24 when he slightly catches more he wanes. I can't see that the Twins' failing to provide any depth is any reason to compound the problem by extending Jeffers. Boras is Jeffer's agent you forgot to mention, you want to tell me we should sign Jeffers to a mega-catching contract for a backup catcher? That'll be another blackhole. We have to face what the Twins are avoiding to address. We desperately need a future primary catcher, Jeffers isn't him. We can't afford Jeffers, so faster we trade Jeffers for at least one very promising young MLB-ready catcher the better. So we can better prepare for the future. Jeffers (backup catcher) + a bunch of fringe AAA catchers add up to disaster, even if you pick up an expensive inferior FA catcher. & I'd like to avoid that.
  9. Doctor Gast
    He is a Boras guy! That is one we should extend him
  10. Doctor Gast
    The BP & rotation was hurting long before the last 6 weeks. There were many games we should have won prior to that. Many times there is a fine line between winning & losing. I agree that the lack of a high-end LHRP was not the only reason for our downfall. As I stated lack of depth in the rotation & chemistry had a lot also to do with it. We had the offense but they weren't able to pull up the nose to avoid the crash. If we want to make it to the postseason we have to address every viable solution. In June, If we got a high-end LHRP when I suggested it, could have we won more games? Most definitely. Could have we avoided the slump? Maybe. Could have we cut the slump short? It's likely. In doing so could we have made the postseason? It's likely but I don't think we would have gone far because of the condition of the team.
  11. Doctor Gast
    Why don't you guys actually read what I write? I gave Puk's value at 1.5 in mid-June surplus value do you have any idea how many of our low-3rd tier prospects were higher than that? Gonzalez is a super-hyped prospect before we got him his surplus value was 13.1, because of the hype people were willing to pay that for him. many can't distinguish the hype, again his value has dropped to 3.1. There are other teams & Twins still value Gonzalez (he's still MN#7) & are willing to overpay for him. But that is beside the point of there were high-leverage LHRPs that could be had reasonably. AZ traded for Puk at the deadline, a slight overpay with prospects which is very reasonable for the deadline. Puk 8.1 to Deyvison De Los Santos 8.0 plus a throw-in. Which was in line with Gonzalez's value. Gonzalez had been in MN's top 5. Again my point was to trade well before the deadline so you don't have to pay a premium.
  12. Doctor Gast
    "There aren't any trades out there." I've been he told that for years. Here are 2 trade offers I made in June,'24 https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/168177 https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/168590 In the 1st you see Severino straight up for Pukk. 2nd you see a wide variety of trade surplus trade values Gabriel Gonzalez at 11, AJ Pukk at 1.5 & in a trade just after this one I had a trade for Tanner Scott at 4.5 surplus value. MIA was motivated to trade, we could have landed both Pukk & Scott very cheaply if we acted quickly to our needs. You sit & wait until the end high-end RP becomes more expensive & the last day you'll pick up the scraps. Here's another trade in July, Gonzalez 8.0 for Pukk 7.1, still a bargain. https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/171074 Gonzalez is a 3rd tier prospect that shouldn't ever make the Twins. His surplus trade value is now 3.1 , I expect it to fall further.
  13. Doctor Gast
    Prospect hugging is a big part of why we didn't make the postseason. We had a couple of small holes that could have been easily resolved by trading a couple of 3rd tier prospects without touching any 1st or 2nd tier. One in particular that was masquerading as 1st tier (Gonzalez). Primary, a mid-rotation inning eater to give much-needed depth, later a high-leverage LHRP were our real needs. That wasn't properly addressed. IMO we have a pretty good farm, the primary purpose of the farm is to stock the MLB club directly or indirectly through trades. Why keep the farm bloated with 3rd tier players, when we can use them in trade?
  14. Doctor Gast
    This team could easily become better than last season. The subtraction of Margot is our greatest addition. Because Margot was a Falvey's addition he was given a valuable roster spot, every opportunity to succeed & superior Martin & Keirsey was shafted much to the detriment of the Twins. I see here again that inferior, Gasper. Fangraph projected him not playing a single game for BOS in '25. Gasper is a break glass-only player, which I question that he should even have a roster spot much less a spot on the active roster. Martin is a far superior player, Martin is a natural 2Bman, Twins have to do their job & work with him a lot in the OF this offseason & spring training & ease him into there. Like Margot, I'm not surprised if the Twins make this move but I am enraged. Passing up a superior in-house player for an inferior Falvey's out-house one is not an intelligent move.
  15. Doctor Gast
    Gonzalez is a free swinger much like Astudillo, the big difference is that Astudillo had a glove & would play anywhere & hustled, while Gonzalez doesn't. He's limited to RF. Gonzalez became overrated at the end of '23 to make the top 100 because somebody supposed he could develop power. SEA knew it & shopped him hard. Like usual MN bit. His BTV surplus value rose from around 6 to 13.1 & a year later dropped to 3.1. He not going to get better, his best value was in trade but now we won't get much for him as I predicted a year ago.
  16. Doctor Gast
    It's down to 2.6 now
  17. Doctor Gast
    IMO past metrics led TOR & MN to believe that Martin had what it took to be a slugger. Once comfortable & confident in being a MLBer that'll come around.
  18. Doctor Gast
    Besides a handful of teams of wanting to buy a WS- LAD, NYM & NYY & contending wannabes BOS & AZ there hasn't been a lot of noise in FA. PHI's big splash is Kepler who was paid the same that the Twins paid last year. ATL some split contracts. There has been some significant trades that moved the needle but very few teams are doing very much. The AL Central has done little except trade away talent. CLE made a creative TOR/CLE/PIT maneuver to get the piece they wanted. Besides the Beiber show me extension and FA Santana, they are a worse team. KC has done nothing. There has been a lot talk about DET but so far nothing. Like last offseason, we are in a good position to compete. 1st we need to find our real needs & make the reasonable trades needed to fill those needs. Last year, at least a mid-rotation SP & later a high-leverage LHRP via minor trade, that's all, we didn't. But pick up a bunch of fringe RPs that didn't pan out, a broken down 5th SP, Margot & Santana all who we really didn't need. 2nd not be "creative" & compromise the core. This offseason, we still need a high-leverage LHRP (Nardi), a promising young MLB-ready defensive catcher to help out our ailing catching core & a RH platoon player (Romy Gonzalez) to sub at 1B or anywhere else. & not a bunch of fringe MLB, AAA players to see if any stick. This is the difference of being AL Central champs from another 4th place finish.
  19. Doctor Gast
    I didn't read the whole article but it's great to see stats that finally lined up what I saw in the MiLB., thanks Matthew for writing this article. Throughout MiLB he was told, he was a power SS, In MLB, Margot was not a viable CF sub he also took up a valuable roster spot so we couldn't call up Keirsey so Martin we'll throw you into the mess. We need to baby Margot so guess what Martin you get the crappy situations. The way they used Martin was a heck of a way to break in a rookie. No wonder Martin has had difficulty showing who he really is because he hasn't been allowed to. So who is Austin Martin? IMO he is an ideal lead-off hitter who has great potential to get on base, take & steal an extra base, be a demon on the basepath to shake up pitchers to provoke wild pitches & walks, for hitters behind him to have good pitches to hit & spark rallies. A natural 2Bman who's athletic enough to be eased into the OF when needed. All that Martin has gone through, it'd be easy to let those things affect you. But Martin is spunky, he'll bounce back. Now that Margot is gone we'll have a chance to see who he really is. A type A nonathletic player who hits a lot of HRs when we don't need them has a high OPS, but a type B player who gets on base, who takes and steals extra bases, be a demon on the basepath to shake up the pitchers, so he throws the ball away, gives the hitters behind him pitches to hit or walks, then he scores & sparks a rally. All that does not affect OPS. I ask you which player would you choose? Most statheads who live & die by OPS will always pick Player A & totally spurn Player B. But I'd pick Player B every time & I'd give him every opportunity to prove himself. Hope the the Twins can see the same thing.
  20. Doctor Gast
    I've changed my mind on Cartaya, his defense has improved. His hitting is slow to come around but IMO it's there. Just need a lot of patience until it does. He has 1 more option. If his defense wasn't that good, no way. Maybe trade them a newly selected draftee catcher & let them see what they do with him.
  21. Doctor Gast
    We wouldn't get enough for Castro for what we'll lose. After trading Vazquez & quickly finding out that we need another expensive FA catcher we end up saving nothing & still have a bad catching core for years to come with no help in sight. We need that creativity that Falvey has been talking about to move Dobnak. Moving Paddack & Jeffers shouldn't be that hard & can be cheaply replaced.
  22. Doctor Gast
    Cartaya was LAD top prospect a few years ago. He has fallen a lot. If LAD has given up on him, He isn't MLB ready, I doubt we can do anything with him. But we can dream.
  23. Doctor Gast
    I heard about Hart a while ago & was intrigued. Thanks, Cody for shedding some light on him. Being a soft-throwing lefty as a SP makes me queasy. IMO most everybody would think the same so landing him as a RP could be possible at a lower cost. If anybody wants him as a starter they can have him. We can always trade for a high-leverage LHRP if we don't wait too long.
  24. Doctor Gast
    There's a lot of very good young promising MLB-Ready catchers out there. Teel is my favorite because of his defense and he's also a very good hitter who hits the ball hard & doesn't K very often & IMO the HRs will come, Rushing & Jefferson Quero (MIL) are next both are great. The list goes on Harry Ford (SEA), Edgar Quero (CWS) the most underrated is (SH) Drew Romo (CO) a very good defensive catcher who once given the opportunity can hit, his power will eventually come. (SH) Cole Carrigg (CO) has been put on the shelf for a while but IMO has the greatest potential of becoming an elite catcher. I get very excited at the possibility of trading for at least one of these catchers & see the need for 2. I have put in a lot of reasonable trade offers on many different catchers with good responses.
  25. Doctor Gast
    A lot to talk about so I'll just limit this to Mountcastle. IMO I'd take Miranda over Mountcastle because both are simular but Miranda has a better bat & at 1B that's what we want. 3B is tough on Miranda's arm & should be kept at 1B. If we pick up Mountcastle, he'd be the mainstay at 1B. It is another wasted year for Miranda to become the 1Bman we want & need, stalling his value to the team. If Miranda played last year primarily at 1B his value & WAR would be much higher now. If we trade Miranda now for example we'd be selling very low on him. Mountcastle is pretty much a finished product at 1B with 2yrs of control. IMO Miranda has much more upside & we have 4 more years to work with him. I'd rather invest in Miranda at 4 yrs. than Mountcastle's 2 with 2 more years leaving Miranda undeveloped at 1B & more apt to get reinjured at 3B keeping his value lower than what it should be
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