Doctor Gast

I know what you mean Seth. I'm ready for some progress reports from some of our players. But thinking about our #4 catcher wouldn't make me happy, thinking about what'd happen if Vazquez got hurt is bad enough.

Thanks, IMO under these circumstances, I'd prefer to have 1st catchers, then SS & CFers have a great bulk of the defensive WAR & other positions have a lesser % depending on importance. & inferior defenders receive less defensive WAR. But better yet, Offense WAR & Defensive WAR should be equal & Pitching should have a separate stat to measure their proficiency. This way the better defenders especially premium positions will be better represented. Because Defensive WAR is being diluted by sharing with Pitching WAR. The player with higher Offensive WAR has an advantage over a defensive player in Total WAR.

I think that Martin is more than a Buxton sub. His RH bat can be used as a platoon at either cOF. And as his tool sets really take effect, they'll try to get him in the game any way they can.

Thank you, Ritchie. This site was very useful & I believe Fangraph could be more accurate than the others. They gave a good explanation. IMO offensive WAR is more straightforward to calculate than defense (especially catching many intangibles) so defense isn't given enough credit (ex, DP is credited as 1 out). And baserunning, is a player that steals 2B & 3B given the same credit as a hitter that hits a triple? When considering trading a player or trading for a player, do we look only at the WAR from those players from the year before? W/o looking at any underlying conditions (either favorable or unfavorable) that no longer exist? WAR is a valuable tool but we shouldn't blindly ignore the underlying conditions that existed.

#1) Thanks for responding DJL44. I have no idea how WAR is calculated. Are you saying each (1) win (of the winning team) is distributed to each person who contributed according to the value that the person who came up with WAR? #2) When looking at total WAR, I do think that not enough WAR is distributed to defense compared to offense which a slugging catcher is given too much value over a defensive catcher at a defensive premium position. CCOF5yrstoolate mentioned that Fangraph is more favorable to defense but at catching, there are too many intangibles. A good catcher adds a lot to the success of a pitcher should he share in that WAR? And how do you determine that & how do you calculate that? It gets very complicated. I like to dabble at Baseball Trading Values. They calculate a player's trading value by subtracting his salary from his ATV coming up with a surplus value. This is a tool to help you come up with a reasonable trade offer and we can evaluate actual trades. When making an offer you try to balance the total surplus value of one team to be equal to the other. Should FO use this tool to determine whether to accept or reject a trade? Absolute not, Even if a trade offer is fair according to BTV or even an overpay, I reject 10 offers for every one I accept because the offer doesn't meet my needs or I don't agree with the value they give. My point is that BTV is a tool but it's not absolute. So also total WAR can be an useful tool (I look at WAR) but it's not absolute & should not be used entirely to affect how we make our decisions.

Since they got their SS, I expect they have settled in & will keep all their SPs for now.

What I least expect from Correa is to play good enough ball to get us to the "party". Then turn it on at the "party".

Martin's setback has been from trying to make him into something that he isn't, a power-hitting SS. His turnaround came from allowing him to find himself which is extremely valuable. People put a lot of importance on HRs & don't care about anything else. But a lot should be said about being an OB machine that takes that single or BB or HBP & makes it into a double or triple by taking that extra base or stolen base isn't that better than striking out so often? Martin is athletic and can play 2B or OF but the importance right now is OF so let's focus on that. Why I'm so high on Martin is that he's a winner. He knows how to win in big spots like the '19 College World Series. He has a fire in his belly & he has confidence in himself. So just like I predicted Lewis & Julien would have a big impact on the '23 Twins, I predict that Martin will make a big impact on the '24 Twins when given the opportunity. Just by being himself. It'll be exciting to see Martin, Buxton & Castro tearing up the base path this season.

Thanks Aram, I enjoy your work, keep up the good work!

I have a good expectation about Paddack's return. His 140+ innings goal is very ambitious. I don't expect much over what Maeda pitched. If we gauge things up early, IMO we'll run into problems with Paddack & be left with fewer total innings from him. I don't expect much from DeSclavani so we'll need a lot of long relief to make up those innings.

The biggest problem is teams like LAD can come in & swoop up these FAs on the cheap. Creating more disparity.

Sanchez was never intended to become the primary catcher, he became one by default in Jeffers absence.

Thank you, I heard wrong.

WAR, what is it? I know it's wins above replacement but what does that mean? How do they come up with that? And what formula do they use? WAR is a stat that drives Fantasy Baseball & analytical baseball; helps us evaluate individuals, teams & even determine HOF inductees. I've heard that most HOF voters often use total WAR to determine who to vote for unless they have some bias. But is WAR really the end-all means to evaluate a player's worth? Let's look at catching. Catchers often sacrifice themselves to benefit the team, put a lot of time into evaluating hitters, and getting to know their pitchers, there's a lot of intangibles in being a catcher that are not calculated into WAR. IMO catching is the most important defensive position in baseball. They're in every play, stabilize the rotation & command the defense. But they haven't been fairly represented in the HOF lately. Why is that? It's because WAR is the standard & what affects WAR is HRs, defense is minimized & the intangibles are not considered. Let me use a case in point, Yadier Molina. Yadi, you probably heard is a very good catcher but until you watch him play you can't really appreciate how elite he really is. Yet there are many that question his credentials of becoming a HOFer, because his WAR isn't high enough (his slugging % is not high enough although his BA is above average, especially for a catcher). Molina put in 19 yrs, all in STL catching every year. The lowest place they finished was once in 4th place yet they had a 89-79 record, during most of those years, STL made it to the postseason, won the NLC 4Xs going to the World Series 4Xs & winning the World Series 2Xs. Most of those years they were mainly considered a pitching/ defense type team. He won 9 GGs, 4 platnium gloves & 10 AS selections. Some headlines of the Cards downfall last season blamed "the breakdown of the rotation" others "lack of leadership" yet more " poor defense" & "catching". I think they could all be summed up with "no Molina". Molina stabilized the rotation, he was a leader, he commanded the defense & had great defensive stats of CS% & picking off runners that digressed after he left. Willson Contreras was a top 10 catcher, the most consistant hitting catcher in MLB. But STL pitchers refused to pitch to him in the beginning, Not because he was a terrible pitch caller (he was probably average) or was terrible in handling the pitchers it was because he wasn't Yadi. Molina had an incredible feel for the game, he knew what was going on all time. He knew when to change up the pich calling, pick off runners, when a pitcher should come out etc. Joe Mauer deservingly was inducted into the HOF because he was the GOAT MLB hitting catcher, yet all MVP Mauer's years in MN, despite MN's greatest postseason SPs duo of Santana & Liriano, MVP Morneau, (CF)Hunter, Cuddyer plus others never had post season success. If I wasn't such a great fan of our honorable hometown hero Mauer & if I had choice between 15 years of Mauer (55.2 WAR) or 19 years of Molina (44.1 WAR), I'd pick Molina. Now I'm not here to start a Molina for HOF campaign. & most certainly not start an anti-Mauer platform (I strongly denounce that) this has nothing to do about either. I'm here to show how unfair WAR is to exclusively evalute a player. Where hitting HRs raises WAR means everything & SOs & defense means very little.

Thanks Jamie, with the tiny automatic strike zone in AAA, Lee should instinctively know that it's beneficial to be more patient but isn't. E Rod takes advantage of the small automatic strike zone, maybe he's too patient. So chasing is definitely a problem that needs to be addressed & for him to find that balance, before coming up to MLB. Although Lee has a home at 2B there's no hurry to bring Lee up, I'd like for him to be confident that he can hit MLB 1st.

.I totally agree with you Nick, that catching defense is extremely important to the team's success. Even with Vazquez, the Twins are projected to be in the middle of the pack. The best decision the Twins made this off-season was to keep Vazquez. In '20 Jeffers supported Garver & he had a good season. '21 Garver was injured so Jeffers had the bulk of the playing time, Jeffers slumped. In '22 Jeffers was the sole primary catcher with only Sanchez as the safety net, Jeffers crashed & burned. In '23 Jeffers supported primary catcher Vazquez (his safety net), and Jeffers thrived. As Jeffers's playing time & responsibility increased his defense waned. My observation is Jeffers makes a much better backup than the primary catcher. IMO Vazquez's offense will rebound while Jeffers's will regress. IMO Jeffers's defense was stretched to the max last year & can not be sustained. IMO our catching depth is poor & has been neglected

I'm not quick to criticize the Pohlads because I don't have any facts to go by and I grew up under the Griffins. I loved the '60s Twins & going into the '70s but after they let Carew go, they were bad. Every year I vowed I'd quit listening to the Twins but because of TonyO, I kept coming back until TonyO retired. Then I completely gave up on the Twinkees (I hate that name). I came back when the Pohlads bought the Griffins out & brought back the pinstripes. We have a great core of players. I can accept that there is a money crunch because IMO we can still improve under those parameters through proper evaluations & execution. But it didn't happen.

Facts are exactly what you're not getting from this FO. They let out only the info that fits them. '21 we came off 2 division championships, the fanbase was excited. In the off-season they didn't get the FA SP they wanted, So they got some older SPs in Happ & Shoemaker & ex CWS closer, Colume, they showed some past stats & stated that Johnson was going work his magic & fix Shoemaker's mix, and the fanbase got even more excited, watch out MLB here we come. I criticized that Happ wasn't a good idea because an old slow LHP in a heavy dominant RH-hitting Central Division was never going to work. old Shoemaker had a lot to fix & showed no openness to change. Plus there must be a reason why CWS let Colume go, Closers have a super stressful job, and you need to be highly confident in your stuff & yourself to be one. Colume was having problems (that's why CWS let him go) plus being let go doesn't do anything for your confidence plus getting acclimated to a different club is too much, Plus FO wanted to show they made the right decision by showcasing him as our primary closer. And just like now, I was hammered, "You're crazy", "you don't know what you're talking about", and "Don't rock the boat". Questioning sources, observing, doing research, putting pieces together & making an assumption isn't blindly accusing this FO. I might not be 100% correct but I'm not being blind. I sincerely would like this FO to do well. But I'm going to speak up when I don't agree.

Thank you Cody for sharing that insight with us. Hope you & Liam well. Going through these things helps us to appreciate what we have.

I never said minor leaguers are coasting. I said there's a much higher level at the MLB for SPs with additional physical, mental & emotional baggage. Therefore minor-league stats more often don't translate into MLB stats right away. And many successful minor leaguers can't make that transition.

I'm sorry you felt disrespected that wasn't my intent. I just want to shake people up to actually look at everything & then make a rational conclusion. Many take everything that our FO says & never question it.

It's blindly accepting something (in this case hype) to be true without testing it but later realizing it's false when it's too late. Social media is full of people pushing their agenda. If I was in this situation I wish someone to challenge me. I am always open for logical debate.

Kool-Aid isn't a mind-altering substance, at least not in the way I meant it. People can use the term Kool-Aid for me I don't care.

Yes, Varland is sturdy but as you know there is no comparison from minor leagues to MLB. Because of the level of play an SP has to endure, the added physical effort you tend to throw harder, that extra adrenalin, the extra mental effort, the emotional & stress. All take a toll on a body. In Ober's sophomore season, he started out in the rotation but I'd wager that Varland will pass the # of games that Ober in his sophomore season pitched. But not 25 games, which is being much too optimistic.

I applaud you, Cody. I think the one when they said they weren't taking any prospects' deals on any of the salary dump players was that the deals needed to directly respond to our needs. I applauded the FO for making the correct stand but whenever they make the correct stand you can count on them to change it, Which they did about a week later. They traded Polanco for 2 unnecessary prospects & 2 older vets, 1- RP & 1- 5th SP, positions we had covered in-house & positions that we could easily add to. We definitely got worse & when the Kool-Aid wears off everybody will regret this trade.