tony&rodney

Duran is always going to be one pitch away from an elbow or shoulder injury, which is concerning for him and the Twins. Relief pitchers are getting paid handsomely and it might take another handful of millions to get ink from Duran. A $5 million signing bonus might be one way to keep the yearly salaries in the range you suggest. Relievers are risky but Duran is a good one. Move the guarantee to $40 million and I believe it can be done. Whether this is a good idea or not is up to Falvey. The fans mostly say yes to using someone else's money. Duran at the back end of games is a big deal though. Do it.

There is quite a bit of mutual respect common in baseball today. The field coaches and managers as well as players know they could be on a different team next year. If you look around the game today you can see a number of major superstars who were traded or left their former teams via free agency. But, yes I agree with you as do the players.

Abreu is a young pitcher. There are few players in baseball today who care at all about how a player celebrates, unless they specifically and aggressively address another player in an attempt to ridicule.

Luplow does not get a 40 spot, Alcala does. Gordon may be placed on the 40 person now but dropped later.

Good work Nick. Do we make our guesses a week after the World Series? Small detail - minimum for 2024 is $740,000.

Maybe a loose analogy is needed here. Camargo is serviceable as a catcher to be used in case of injury in the same manner that Simeon Woods Richardson or Cole Sands are serviceable as starting pitchers in case of injury. Christian Vazquez is a clear MLB catcher in the same manner in which Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober are clear MLB starting pitchers. A team can do better but a team can do much worse too. The Twins are lucky to have two good MLB catchers.

There is an assumption that Baker knew he had already been ejected and if he actually did know, he wanted to direct a little more wisdom towards the umpire chief. It seems highly unlikely that Baker was putting LeClerc in the freezer. Only Abreu and Maldonado know if that pitch was meant to hit Garcia. It seems doubtful from a baseball strategy perspective. MLB reacted with a little bit of venom perhaps. It is unclear right now whether an appeal will be filed on the two game suspension. If there is any proof that Abreu threw at Garcia with intent to hit him, then the suspension should have been more serious than just two games. Maybe something unfolds over the offseason but I doubt it. I'm a Twins fan first and then an American League fan, but really just a baseball fan. The nonsense about the Astros cheating is as tired as the blame Barry Bonds for everything craziness while ignoring everyone else who began, were involved in ,a nd carried on the entire steroids debacle. I understand the nonsense and cheating undertaken by the Astros and didn't like it. I also believe numerous teams were involved in similar shenanigans and that MLB was privy to all of it and just turned their backs until reporters returned definitive evidence and corroboration. Let's face it, Manfred is a stain on the game far worse than others.

Catcher discussion #2 comes to the same conclusion - the Twins are lucky to have two decent catchers. Additionally, Falvey needs to make sure Camargo signs another contract. Pitchers like decent catchers. Not much else to say.

My favorite ploy for handling stocks. Always worth it because my wife gets excited by the sameness of my financial acumen.

In fairness to the Twins, the team was better in the postseason than Atlanta, a team lauded as among the top three all time great offenses in MLB history. The Twins also did better with the bats than Baltimore, Tampa Bay, and the Dodgers as well. Any team can wind up losing a series against some good pitching. Pablo Lopez made the Astros struggle mightily. The Diamondbacks are a pretty pedestrian team but if they win tonight they will suddenly be getting plaudits and praise beyond all reason. The playoffs are fun and it isn't practical to demand victory. It is reasonable to expect good performance. Julien and Correa were terrific in the postseason as was Lewis. Farmer did fine in limited duty. I want to see better hitting too but am really having a hard time identifying someone who is both a good bet to perform and is a sensible acquisition. Ohtani? Sure, but what are the odds? Soto? Is he even available and at what cost of players sent back to San Diego? It is a down year for bats and it may be quite difficult to pry away a decent piece of lumber from any team. BTW, the trade for Mahle was highly praised nationally and favored by an overwhelming number of folks on Twins Daily. Unfortunately, Mahle hurt his shoulder and then his elbow too. Bad luck for him and the Twins. To close, all of Castro, Solano, and Farmer played significant reserve roles for the Twins and were solid contributors to the season's success. Yes, to any magical bats able to be added. Now .... how?

I believe that Falvey already made that decision for us.

Why does it sound like you pine for the days of Denny Hocking at shortstop?

200+ innings are a fair number to assess a successful season. The manner in which teams restrict pitcher usage makes reaching 200 innings a task for any pitcher in the game today. Only five in 2023, eight in 2022, and four pitchers in 2021 were able to throw 200 innings. If Pablo Lopez can throw 200+ innings in 2024, we can expect a high level of excellence and success in his starts because pitchers who struggle in innings 4-7 are lifted for a reliever pretty quickly. Pablo is a great pitcher with a fine repertoire of pitches that he knows how to use and avoiding the IL is a huge must for him and the Twins. If we can look through his stats at the end of the 2024 campaign and see 200+ innings, all other numbers will fall into the plus-plus category. Health is crucial.

The future is coming and the Twins have as good a chance or better at winning the AL Central than any other team. The club does need to continue with changes, however, to bring in a couple of players that will improve the team and solidify a hold (for now) on the division. You will recall that last April both Cleveland and Chicago were seen as more likely to win the AL Central as the Minnesota Twins. Talent, depth, and improvement are important for continued success.

No, Christian Vazquez is not too expensive for 2024. Starting pitching is critical to any winning team and then it is necessary to have someone to catch the ball. Until the Twins have someone better in their system to promote and another guy as a backup in case of an injury, Vazquez stays. Camargo is the backup now. Perhaps after next season Noah Cardenas rises to become a worthwhile MLB catcher. No more Sanchez or Garver guys behind the plate says every pitcher ever.

Royce Lewis seemed like he was being groomed for CF. The ACL injury, which had (really) nothing to do with playing centerfield changed that for him and the Twins. Of course people change their minds but Falvey and Baldelli were pretty emphatic that Lewis is a third baseman. Not totally insignificant, Boras has stated that Lewis is a superstar infielder in the making. So I think that ship has sailed, no matter what seemed possible looking at the Twins personnel from our perspective. Jorge Polanco is still a very good baseball player. What team is going to trade a valuable player for Polanco? While it is possible that there is some future star playing in the Dominican Summer League available in return for Jorge, I doubt the Twins are adding to their farm system by moving a guy like Polanco right now. The rumors of Polanco's demise may be a few years away. It is very possible that Polanco is added to a prospect or a young controlled player as the second Twins player in a trade. Louie Varland has the potential to be better than both Ryan and Ober. He pitched for a small D2 school, Concordia in St. Paul, before just two full minor league seasons before this past year. Varland is relatively inexperienced. He needs some refinement of his pitches but more importantly needs to throw all of his pitches with the same conviction that he throws his fastball. While Varland was dazzling in his relief role this year, I believe he is a strong 6-7 inning starting pitcher. The TV/media revenue stream is important for the Twins revenue. Will a deal be in place before the Twins need to be negotiating with free agents and conducting discussions on potential deals with other teams? Without a deal in place or reasonably sure on the horizon, the player payroll is unlikely to return to $155 million for 2024. A deal for a strong pitcher would be nice but seems more of an outside wish because of the money. A payroll around $150 million for next season sure would be sweet though.

There are risks and the Twins cannot afford to be risk adverse. When we began to hear small murmurs that Miami had some interest in a Twin last Fall, I was all over the idea and didn't really care who we traded if the return was notable. This offseason there should be additional opportunities, but it isn't clear if any teams see a player(s) from the Twins that is an object of desire. The Twins can afford to trade any player that makes their team better. Falvey needs to identify a player or two that can be reasonably acquired. While it would be decent to add via the free agent market, I believe the pitchers will be too expensive for the Twins and the position player options are limited to Cody Bellinger. A high risk trade for Soto seems very unlikely but he would be a difference maker and hold a spot for a miracle-like rise from Emmanuel Rodriguez. Yes, the Twins need to add talented bats (and pitchers). but it will be a tall task. I'm hopeful.

Correa makes the plays. We can quibble about his range and he did suffer all season with PF, yet at the end of the day he is a rock at shortstop. The Twins haven't had a shortstop of his caliber since Greg Gagne. The contract is a function of his time in the league and demand, similar to Seager and others. I do not consider it at all when watching a player. A huge part of fielding evaluations are the various metrics used to rate players. These tools have been almost continually refined year over year, which is probably for the better. There is also some differences between the different numbers gathered on a player by separate sites. My thought is that these are all interesting but only useful to a degree. Several decades ago I devised my own systems for the players I coached in an attempt to objectively evaluate them. This works beautifully when one guy can mark every pitch and play according to standards. It doesn't work as well when another person uses their systems or even tries to use your measures. Fielding remains subjective despite the various methods used to rate the players. We saw quite a bit of change in two Twins players this past season in reference to defense. Matt Wallner was halting and indecisive on both fly balls and hits coming to him. He has a big arm but his release was slow. By the end of the year Wallner had become much more confidant and covered more ground as an outfielder. He also became much quicker in his transfer to throw the ball. It was almost ridiculous how no player attempted an extra base if there was a chance on balls to hit Wallner. Edouard Julien was intimidated by MLB as a fielder when he arrived and it showed. His defense was .... well, not good. There were calls to get him off the field and worse. By the end of the year Julien was making the plays that should be made and it is likely the Twins can see him as their main second baseman moving forward. The metrics improved dramatically for Julien as well. That said, most would believe that there is still room for improvement. This long paragraph is mostly to ask if anyone knows where to find metrics that break down fielding by the month or weak for the players.?

Farmer is an easy decision for me. The Twins keep him unless there is a really good offer which clearly improves the team. As far as value is concerned, this is determined by each team. You might like Anderson, Berti, or another shortstop better than Farmer but we just don't know. The Twins get a ton of value from Farmer and they are in a win-win situation, either he stays and helps the team or is traded for a player who helps them even more.

Perhaps Varland takes a big step up in 2024. We can also look forward to David Festa getting his feet wet next year and claiming a rotation spot in 2025. But, yes, a trade or free agent signing this offseason is an important key to next season.

an important consideration in any trade is whether BOTH sides see value in the transaction. When one thinks of a specific player exchange, ask yourself whether this is what the other team wants. A couple os teams have already indicated what they see as needs. Miami is looking for a catcher and a shortstop. Cincinnati has position players galore but is looking for pitching. Seattle wants someone who hits at 2B, 1B, and in the outfield. So, some teams can be possibilities for Falvey while others are unlikely. The issues with BTV are pretty deep and you can see yourself some of the suggestions (Twins get Max Muncy & James Outman and send Pablo Lopez to the Dodgers). The idea of Juan Soto in any lineup is favorable. If you are a Padre fan how do you feel about a trade where Griffin Jax and Trevor Larnach head to San Diego and Soto goes to the Twins? This is an overpay by the Twins. I just don't see it. Conversely, Seattle has some pitchers and BTV has them valued very highly. Yet Seattle will listen if an offer fills their needs just as Miami was willing to add two players along with Lopez to acquire Arraez when the values by BTV favored Lopez by a significant margin. I do not know what conversations are in process or are going to occur, but the Twins have some young players to offer if they find a guy to fill their wishes without destroying their own roster. Selling high sounds great but I'm not convinced that players like Castro, Jeffers, Wallner, Julien, and Lewis have peaked. They are just beginning to learn the game and have much more to add to what they showed this past season. Most importantly, the budget may be real important this offseason because players like Burnes ($16+M) and Soto ($33M) are not outlandish if the Twins player payroll remains around $155 million.

These are difficult decisions. Who knew that Spencer Steer would turn out to be so tough at the plate? He would have been the Twins MVP and ROY. I never thought trading Steer was a bad idea because of the many players who looked like they would be better than him at the MLB level. I'm always curious to know how other teams value the Twins players. Julien might be someone who begins to hit .280-.300 with 60 XBH and 100 BB each year. A question for me is how to evaluate Brooks Lee as compared to Royce Lewis or Ed. Julien. Is Lee someone that draws interest more than Julien? We know how hard it is to find really good hitters but it is almost always the case that pitching is what drives wins. So difficult calls need to be made in transactions. My belief is that a productive Logan Gilbert or George Kirby or Bryce Miller are needed more than one of the solid young Twin bats. Then again, perhaps it is time to trust that Louie Varland is ready for a full season in the starting rotation. I guess that Lewis and Jenkins should be put aside in conversations but all others should be on the table. The goal is always the same - improve the roster. Sorry for rambling.

Is it fair to say that many were shocked and a few quite angry when the Twins traded Luis Arraez? The overriding question is how do the Twins improve their team. Trades have been a preferred path compared to the free agent market.

Doubt whether Luplow, De Leon, Stevenson, Ortega, or Henriquez have 40 person spots. Gordon is iffy but I think he stays. Alcala and Moran are also iffy but with options and have shown some promise. Balazovic has done nothing to earn a spot on the roster really. He hasn't looked composed or effective with any consistency to even be mediocre. However, I think he stays until later additions bump him.

True. Love Goldy. He also has a no trade contract and has specifically stated his intent to stay in St. Louis. It's a great baseball town. I'm a little perplexed why folks keep suggesting trades of players with NTC who have also explicitly stated their wishes.