tony&rodney

"What does ..... do to the Twins future?" If one has followed the Twins for years, it is reasonable to say that the philosophy has not changed and the future is largely unaffected. The Twins have made a few "splash" signings: Puckett, Mauer, Donaldson, Buxton, Correa, and Lopez to name a few. They also moved on from guys like Santana, Hunter, and Polanco. The team has never really seriously entertained signing a free agent pitcher of note, salary-wise. The 2025 roster payroll is likely to end up around $135-140 million, depending on factors that play out this season. Falvey will need to determine where the roster needs bolstering through inexpensive moves, trades, and use of the waiver wire - same as it ever was, same as it ever was. Falvey and crew are quietly being evaluated. The problem with going too far down the road with projections runs into the vagaries of totally unpredictable forces, such as injuries. For right now, the Twins look like they have the players in place to be a competitive squad. Despite my disappointments with how the offseason rolled out it looks like some good games will be played this summer.

FWIW, it seems like there may have been some double counting. The revenue pile is 48% of each team's monies is collected and then distributed to all 30 organizations. This means that one can only add 52% of whatever revenue the Twins created to that number. Factually, we don't know all of the numbers and frankly it seems like a futile task that ends in disagreement.

This is my concern as well. Add a player at the top if possible. To the ongoing numbers debate ..... a jharaldson has a post on the sidebar on TD that uses links and numbers to question the expected 50% of revenue for players idea. Essentially (read the post) the posts states that revenue sharing sends near $110 miilion per year plus near $90 million per team for national media deals. I don't check these numbers but perhaps someone has a better handle on all of the numbers. When one adds $200 M to a guess of $40 M for a local tv deal and then adds in the Twins share of tickets, the numbers don't seem to square up. Forbes (my simple opinion) is purely an entertainment magazine. We should expect businesses to operate for profit/gain in order to maintain employment and such. Pretty much all big corporations suck major money from the public in various formats and the public is nearly always happy to go along for the ride. Only the Pohlads CFO and a few others actually know the numbers and I'm not too sure we can come that close with our napkins. When Liberty Media took control of the Atlanta team and subsequently had to publicly report all of their financial information, it kind of exposed some funny numbers being reported by various media about MLB teams when the actual data was completely private. Having no control, I try not to get up in arms. The 2024 Twins should be better than last year's team.

"The Twins are looking at $396 million in revenue based on this model and are spending only 30% on payroll." - from your post Your post and the numbers you used raise legitimate questions.

Yesterday on a Fangraphs chat with Ben Clemens a reader asked which team might crater in the coming season similarly to the Cardinals last year. Clemens said, the Twins, injuries could tear the team down. So it is out there. While I have suggested that Falvey mishandled the trade market (just my opinion - don't hate), I think the Twins should be a better team this year than last and win the AL Central again even if it is with fewer wins. Not sure who will be the 26th person on the roster, but it seems slightly possible that Michael A. Taylor returns. Brooks Lee, Austin Martin, Anthony Prato, Michael Helman, Jair Camargo, and DaShawn Kiersey Jr. should be able to provide adequate depth in case of injuries. Might be worth a reminder that nobody really expected much from Wallner or Julien going into last year and Lewis was a question mark as well. A big question this year remains Alex Kirilloff. No doubt that injuries and regression could cause some angst this season, but I like the team. As always, the games need to be played for us to know.

I sorta remember who was out on Mahle, etc. My comment was only really for those who are suggesting that the money for Buxton, Correa, or Lopez is too much and curious whether those same folks had the same specific thoughts and comments in on Twins Daily back before and right after the deals were completed. It was a response to a comment down on the expenditures and made me curious because I don't remember many speaking against Buxton or Correa.

The numbers for those clubs may be sheer speculation, much like has been done (mol) on TD. The deal, (supposedly or at least as published) included a non disclosure addendum on spilling or reporting details for all of the teams.

In an interview, Lee said he has taken some ground balls at second base and played a few games at third base, but pretty much always has been a shortstop. I have watched Lee quite a few times (via milb.com), but it is much harder to learn anything about a fielder watching via tv than watching at bats. We can see quite a bit in every movement in at bats but are restricted in what we can see from a fielder. In fact, it is easier to see what an outfielder can do because of the angle of the camera than what goes on in the infield. Lee is projected by nearly every report i have seen to be slated for third base. The scouts suggest he can do a decent job at both shortstop and second base, but universally say his best position is going to be third base. This year should allow the Twins to see Lee play a position other than shortstop and determine where he looks best defensively. Playing in St. Paul allows for some of us to watch his game live too. Last year, I thought Lee looked fine but certainly not special as a defender. But as I already suggested, it is nearly impossible to make really good judgments about an infielders play via tv. Fair to say that Brooks Lee is solid depth at AAA right now.

My only question is whether you can pull up specific posts/comments where you immediately and consistently voiced your disapproval both before and after the Buxton and Correa signings? There were people who did not want to sign either player and said so. I was just curious. Or perhaps you meant that the numbers in those contracts reflect an outsized percentage of the total payroll. For example, I was completely opposed to trading for Tyler Mahle before the trade and especially did not want the Twins to send off Christian E-S. However, once the trade was made I thought that the trade reflected an attempt to make the Twins better and then supported that trade. I posted a suggested trade of Arraez plus a couple of others to Miami for Luzardo and Cabrera immediately after the end of the 2022 season. We are just fans and make our guesses.

I didn't mention Burnes, did I? Maybe I should read my post. I don't disagree with the return in the Polanco trade as far as potential long term play really. I thought the Twins could have made a trade, including Polanco and others, that would have been an improvement on this year's team. I was willing to trade either Kepler or Wallner if the Twins signed Gurriel Jr. and added a top pitcher. Much of my ideas (totally guesses) were based on how Seattle had made acquiring Jorge Polanco their main offseason objective after moving on from strikeout prone players. It is all guesswork in any event. Water over the dam, but I was mostly writing to tell Tom that wishing for any of the current free agents was pointless and not obtainable. I think the team is fine too.

Talk radio is always about getting more listeners (revenue). It can be fun, even interesting to listen. Listen and enjoy, but remember that just like cable tv, it is entertainment. Johnny Carson, Howard Stern, Bubba the Love Sponge, Bill O'Reilly and his cable offspring among many others all remind me of Mad Dog Vachon, Vern Gagne, and Kenny Jay; entertainers (I apologize for putting the good guys in with the bad guys). Joe Pohlad said, "No." The Twins are not going to add a player for $30 million, but Falvey always has plenty of lattitude to bring ideas to the table and that continues. The Twins are trying to win a World Series according to Joe. Nothing he said should be surprising in the least to folks who follow the Twins. Some people may want to see the comments/interview in a negative light and free will says you may. Those who feel that an interview or comments by Joe Pohlad can be a disaster ..... I can't relate. Even when I was paid for baseball, it was a hobby. Just to be transparent, I'm not much of a fan of the corporate world and neither a supporter nor condemn the Pohlads. I'm just an old man and a little confused how so many people were so sure that the Twins would suddenly change their habits after four decades.

The possible opening for Trevor Bauer back to the majors may come in April when some team that expects to win this year has a pitcher injured and a big need opens. There are a few front office suits whose jobs are being evaluated and one of them may see Bauer as the guy to give him and the team a boost. Personally, I don't have the vigor to condemn someone like Bauer. He has been a pain for establishment folks, made a number of bad choices, and is clearly a different dude. We have all seen far, far worse behavior and actions from too many famous people, some of whom are respected and revered by millions, to be bothered by Trevor Bauer. The issue is that corporations like control and Bauer has been one to forge his own path of how to pitch. He runs counter to corporate norms. If the matter was merely confined to Trevor being a contributor to winning games, a team would have already signed him. I do wish a team would sign Bauer. Despite Bauer being out of MLB for a decent amount of time, he did pitch reasonably well in Japan.

Tom, it seems you believe that one of Monty, Belly, or Blake would push the Twins into World Series territory. You would have a large number of fans who might agree with you. I don't see these players as keys at all. Money is a real thing but I agree that $20-30 million plus years is not a good plan. A guy who would have likely paid a decent return is Lourdes Gurriel Jr. There are always going to be disagreements about how to best construct a team and where and when to gamble on a big free agent signing and/or trade. The Twins made three significant gambles to an extent in signing Buxton, Correa, and Lopez to large contracts. I agreed with all of those. Many people were beside themselves with the Correa deal and now criticize it. De ja vu .... Joe Mauer, which was a brilliant signing. An area where the Twins need to be as exact as is possible is in two areas where the financial figures do not interfere so much. Young players who look like they can produce need an opportunity. We have seen this with all of Ryan, Ober, Duran, Jeffers, Lewis, Julien, and Wallner. A couple of guys have suffered injuries and there can certainly be regression in the coming season. Now, it is a good time to use Varland, Alcala, and Martin. They have options but their contributions would surpass the players set in front of them. The other area is to improve the team through trades. Sometimes those trades hurt. If you recall, the Mahle trade was highly praised on Twins Daily while the Arraez - Lopez was widely panned. Luis was a crowd favorite. For me the offseason went off the rails with the Polanco trade. I expected Polanco, Kepler, and Farmer to be traded, but Polanco for sure. My disagreement was in the return. If you want to make a dramatic improvement to the top of the rotation, it is going to hurt. Falvey wasn't willing to pull the trigger and wound up making a deal under a deadline to reduce the payroll. Maybe the team is better down the road because of the low A ball guys but the team is worse right now. There are so many ways to approach improving the team. I won't get into any more arguments/discussions on the how/who but moving a top player, a few veterans for younger, talented, controllable players is difficult but the best path. I would say Milwaukee and Baltimore made a good trade. The Twins folded too soon or were too hesitant to trade a fan favorite. That was the key to the season. I think perhaps something could happen at the trade deadline but it is more or less up to the team to perform.

Clever, fair ... good odds for gambling a small note .... just don't make any bets on a signing before April. Ok?

No worries, the roster budget will only be about $5-10 million higher and fit the players the team needs. Would be nice to see a bump up to $150 million+ but we can wait to worry about that. A number of players listed will no longer be on the roster, options will be bought, players move on, and Julien still has a year to go before arb 1. $130-135 for 2025 does it. No worries.

Interesting. We read numerous comments over time that point to Cleveland's pitcher development program and you mention Max Scherzer. A pitcher needs to get the ball to show what they can do. Scherzer had two years of ERAs above 4.00 in his first three seasons with the Tigers after he was traded to Detroit, and before he went on his long run of excellence. Tanner Bibee was just put in the rotation by Francona and kept there last season. There is some disagreement about how effective Ryan, Ober, and Paddack will be, but they will get the ball this season. What about Varland?

Fantastic. Enjoy the little things as a teacher, get into coaching baseball. Congratulations on beating cancer and winding your way into your current world. Best.

I cannot really disagree with any of the thoughts you are putting down above. However, how the team will do, up or down, is pure speculation. This is why I don't like the comparisons. One we know, the other, just guessing. Naturally, every team will look at ways to improve from the end of the year to the beginning of the next, but the team in Ft. Myers is always going to be different from the team on the field when the weather turns cold in September. I have not been too charmed with the front office at all this offseason, yet it is a little pessimistic to say that the pitchers and others will regress when they are only entering the years when they should be at their best. Still, like anyone, you could be correct. Basically, the comparison is made, as you said, by the front office yet all of it is a guess until the season plays out. I'm sticking with my model and 85 wins, which is two more than I predicted last year. Variations give the model a plus or minus five. Take the over.

Bellinger is a beast if fully healthy and his magic wand is working. Speed, power, defense, patience, youth - he has it all. He wants the big contract, has had a few really bad injuries that may be pinned on injuries, and makes front office types nervous. Do the Twins have the nerves to sign him to a Correa type three year deal? As nice as that could be, I doubt it. Any contract would move the Twins right back to around $160 million. Now, wouldn't that be a sweet signing? Not my dough .... do it.

Why not? Varland is about as physical as a pitcher comes, he has thrown 150 innings in the last two years, and just needs the opportunity. Varland is actually the answer if the Twins cannot add Kirby, Gilbert, or Luzardo.

Well, you can and I have. Certainly the Twins have also been looking at where to get better. The problem with looking at the end of '23 and now is that how or what any specific player will do now is speculation. We know what the team did in September and October last year. Nobody knows how anyone will do this year yet. So, maybe i need to do this more carefully. How would you, the Twins, or anyone choose to see it? I would take Vazquez/Jeffers now vs end of year (eoy) V/J because Vazquez will be better and Jeffers should hold his own. 1B - i take AK/CS vs. the injured AK/DS eoy duo. 2B is tough. I take '23 Jorge but am a believer in Julien. RL eoy is a wash with RL now, we hope. Carlos is better now without the PF. Tough to know anything about LF, but Wallner has room for improvement and should have worked to address some weaknesses in the offseason. Tough to take Max now over eoy, but possible, so a wash. I'll take Buck now in CF. Bullpen might favor '23 with Varland there, but it is close. The current bullpen has depth. I believe Pablo eoy was peak, so that is a high bar. I still believe he will be good this year. I see all of Ryan, Ober, and Varland as being better which gives the edge to the '24 staff. Your points about wanting to improve are valid but many were wanting to compare the teams. If you did a comparison, would you say the team rostered now is better than the version that ended the year? Despite some very specific disappointments regarding potential trades that never could be pulled off, I'm saying this team is better.

The bat is a concern for Miller. He certainly has 3-5 years to get it together offensively. Those of you who have seen him play correctly laud his fine defense, but he really does look very weak when swinging the stick at this time. To be fair, i have only seen him a couple of dozen times and some of you would have a better idea on his swing potential. The Twins will be patient, that is true.

When comparing the 2023 and 2024 Twins, one can only look at the beginning of the year. Compare the squads of Opening Day then and OD now. It is nonsense to compare the best of the 2023 Twins, which was the team late in the year to the pure speculation of what the 2024 team may do. Be patient and wait to make that comparison - say November. I picked the Twins, in a recent poll on TD, to win 85 games in this coming season and win the AL Central. Think plus or minus five games. I did pick the Twins for 87 wins in mid February. Last season I think I picked the Twins to win the AL Central with 83 victories (again, plus or minus five). Straight beginning of the year is a little early because changes could happen ..... but I will pick the 2024 team. Catching - + for '24; 1B - + for '24, 2B - + for '24 (Polanco was hurt), 3B - + for '24, SS - same, OF - + for '24. SP - Lopez, Ober, and Ryan - + for '24, Maeda vs Paddack is a wash, Gray is a big + for '23. Pen - + for '24. Minor league potential call ups is a big + for '23. This is merely start of the year comparisons and even that is too soon to do. 2024 is better if we just go position by position from last year at this time versus right now. It is old school hands on the bat, kick the bat, and pick your team. I believe Falvey sees the 2024 Twins as improved as well. I certainly question a few things but I do think he worked to improve the team in his viewpoint.

I'll bite. MLB is poorly run IMHO, which leaves teams like the Twins scrambling for media deals. Sinclair/Diamond Sports/Bally are all shaky corporations that have avenues to guarantee their money and flee to bankruptcy when profits drop. Finding a better long term deal through all mediums was and is the better long term play. Maybe someone from the NBA can help, although they also jumped in the sack with Bally. Whatever. The Twins not being available via television in too large of numbers cannot be a good thing for building rapport with a younger audience or their fans in general. Tough deal all around. A cut in payroll was to be expected (BAM $). How much was/is up for debate. Other than possibly Lourdes Gurriel Jr., I cannot think of too many players who would have improved the team coming aboard via free agency. This position comes from a belief that the Twins are not going to sign pitchers to high dollar, multiple year contracts from the FA bin. If they were, Yamamoto would have been the guy but clearly, no question, he was going to the Dodgers all along. Falvey was likely sending and reading texts all winter. The Twins wanted to add a strong pitcher with years of control. So did/does everyone else. There seemed to be two problems from my guesses. The ask from other teams made Falvey (Twins) uncomfortable would have been the major issue. Secondly, the Twins seemed intent on making a trade before Spring Training. Of course this is pure speculation. By waiting the price for Polanco would have risen quite a bit, but that is a gamble that seemed worthwhile. The Twins decided exactly where they could act and added a back end starter, a mid inning bullpen piece, and two lower level prospects of some promise. Plus, as Falvey stated, Santana was added from the Polanco money. Thus, I would say the Twins tried to improve the team. Did they improve. We will know that answer at a later date. All speculation on any budget for the team next year will be put on hold pending a large leap in attendance, the excessive bounty from winning the 2024 World Series and a new, favorable media deal.

I agree if the return is worthy. However, not all of the top prospects are similar. Larnach was never one to run the bases or provide strong defense. When he hit, Trevor was described as a capable outfielder. Maybe this is Gabriel Gonzalez, not sure yet. EmRod can fly, has a big arm, and plays an outstanding centerfield and his power is prodigious. Can he hit? I suspect many names were exchanged this offseason in a futile attempt to complete a trade. I suggested a Trevor Larnach and Spencer Steer trade three years ago .... for Edward Cabrera. No reason to believe that would have worked out though either. Your point is valid though.