Greglw3

Every offseason, we offer our You’re The GM! tool (formerly the Payroll Blueprint) to build your ideal Twins roster. This year, we’ve updated and streamlined the tool a bit to improve the experience.
The idea behind this feature is to give fans a chance to play the role of General Manager (or CBO or PoBO… you get the idea) for their favorite team, the Minnesota Twins. It’s meant to give fans the opportunity to discuss (and, let’s be honest, argue) how they would approach the long, dark MLB offseason.
This tool is intended to be informal and fun, so we’ve left it as open as possible. There is a payroll “budget” that loosely resembles the Twins' 2024 payroll, but there is no penalty for going over that number. It’s a guideline, nothing more. Second, you can submit as many blueprints as you like throughout the offseason. As the offseason landscape changes, users often return multiple times over the winter and create new blueprints.
Before we get into the breakdown of the tool, you can save your blueprint and come back to it at any time. The only restriction is that you must register an account on the site to create a blueprint (so we can save a draft for you and also post the blueprint for others to discuss).
Let’s get into the tool itself. It has four quadrants that work best if addressed in a counter-clockwise order (this tool works much better on desktops due to its complexity but will work on mobile devices if need be).
Top Left: The 26-man Roster
We have created a rough guideline of what the Twins 26-man roster looks like today. The roster is flexible; any player can be added or removed as you see fit. We’ve also included either guaranteed salaries or, in the case of arbitration and contract options, the recommendations of MLB Trade Rumors. This section is where you build your roster and make changes based on the following two sections. As you make changes to players and salaries, the total payroll number (right side of the screen) will change, allowing you to track your budget on the fly.
The bottom field in both columns is for any dead money you assume during the course of your offseason. Acquiring dead money should be rather uncommon but we want to present users the opportunity to take on dead salary if it suits their purposes.
Bottom Left: Arbitration & Trade Decisions
Here, you will find a selection of arbitration options and internal options (usually from the 40-man roster or minor leagues) to assist in building your offseason roster. On the right-hand side of this column, you will see Trade Candidates, a list of the 35 players most likely to be traded this offseason, per MLB Trade Rumors. To help you get up to speed with these candidates, we offer a direct link to the MLBTR write-up on trade candidates.
Bottom Right: Free Agents
Here, you will find the top 50 free agents, again per MLB Trade Rumors. These are sorted by position to facilitate quickly finding your desired free agent and include the recommended salary for that player. Because this is a blueprint for a single year, we only include their projected salary for the coming season, not the number of years or anything else. To help you get up to speed with these free agents, we offer a direct link to the MLBTR write-up on the best 50 free agents available this winter.
Top Right: Dead Money, Your Total Payroll, & Commentary
The only unalterable field on the page is Dead Money; it is players to which the team has committed money but has no reasonable way to get out of the contract. Below that, you will see the recommended budget, your current total, and the percentage you are over or under that budget. Again, keep in mind the budget is only a guideline, and you can go above it as much as you like…
But defend your choices, coward! The following field is Title, which gives other users an idea of what to expect with your blueprint (e.g. Sign Juan Soto, Damn the Consequences). When your blueprint posts for other users, it will read “Your Username’s 2025 Payroll Blueprint: Sign Juan Soto, Damn the Consequences”.
The following field is Your Comments & Explanation, a long-form field meant to type out the rationale behind your decisions. Here is the place to fully explain your trades (including which players are leaving the Twins to bring in new players), why you targeted specific free agents, and, any promotions from the minors you advocate or any options you declined to extend to a specific player. This is often multiple paragraphs, you can write up as much detail as you desire.
That’s it, you’re done! At this point, you can either publish your blueprint to the forums or save it for later if you feel it’s incomplete.
Thank you for joining us at Twins Daily. I hope you enjoy playing the role of general manager, at least for a moment!
Start Your Payroll Blueprint Now

With Julien, Wallner and Lewis breathing life into a listless offense recently, I thought ahead to the possibilities of even more help from St. Paul and a much more robust offense with several high on base guys mixed with power and potential high batting averages. Here’s what I came up with.
2B Julien .OBP .386
CF Martin OBP .377
3B Lewis AVg. .343 OBP .380
SS Correa All World Defense and 15 HR now is best I can do
C Jeffers Protection for Correa
RF Wallner OBP .341 SLG .523
LF B. Lee Potential high average and X Base hits
1B C Williams OBP .369 19 HR
DH Prato Avg. .312 OBP .465 SLG .578
What do you think?

Does this FO, and Field Manager realize their jobs are the line? OR is this just a situation fo ..."thou doth protest too much"?  The insistence that the cures to our offensive woes are currently on this team are baffling. Of course you need to publicly back your guys... to a certain extent. You cannot continue to back your guys as they are setting ALL TIME strike out records, and other standards of offensive ineptness of historical nature.  So what do we do? and who is available?
I am not going to do a deep dive into who are sellers and what they are selling, instead just take a quick look on what our team can control.
the record setting ineptness on our offense means at a minimum the hitting coach goes. IF you have SOME guys striking out a tone and others not, then you can pin it on the players. when EVERYONE K's, then it is the general approach/hitting philosophy. And this ladies and gentlemen come from the hitting coach. Even changing hitting coach and our overall approach wont help too much, because our FO did the shopping and secured players who are all or nothing type hitters. which brings us to the players.
Gallo. Seems like a nice person, and can hit the HR. 15 HR at the break is ok in general, but for someone who has a .186 avg, K's at nearly a 50% clip and produces a total of 28 runs on those 15 HR it is no longer all that ok.  It was an interesting try, and he single handedly helped us win multiple games right out the gate, but he needs to go. No questions asked.
Buxton, while I just trashed Gallo, one could say that Buxton's numbers are in the same ballpark across the board, with even lower OPS, yes but he is signed long term, and no one will take that contract, so as much as it hurts him clogging up DH, he stays.
Kepler, he also needs to be gone... like yesterday. His K rate is not nearly as bad as the first two above, it is in fact someone decent at about. 25%,  We all thought the no shifts would be a boost for Kepler, but he is hitting just .207, and an unplayable .688 OPS. He plays a good defense and on a juggernaut of an offense, you could afford to keep him and bat him 7, but on this offense you cant. What makes it worse is that we are wasting the potential (and yes I hate that word too) of Matt Wallner as we continue to let Gallo (no future with this team even taking this year out of it) play over someone who COULD have a future, and couldn't perform worse.
And Here is the weird thing... on a team of epic offensive futility, I just laid out a case (with exception of Buxton, but sad he plugs up DH) of removing our top 3 HR hitters!!!  haha  That in and of itself shows how the "swing for the fences" style just doesn't work!!!
QUICK!!!  who is #3 on the team in RBI?  Yes, it is still Trevor Larnach!!!!  and he is only 7 back of the team lead.  Yes that should scare and depress you!!!  as well as "FAlvine".
Ultimately the Twins need to find their "Elly De La Cruz".  Of course players of that Calibur are generational, but what I am talking about a player with that attitude, A player that is going to say... "You know what... I am going to get on base and steal 2nd, 3rd, and Home in the span of 2 pitches".  We need to go away from the sell out for the HR, and go to a RUN RUN RUN  offensive philosophy. Give me a .260-.275 hitter who has the ability to steal bases on command...  AND give the green light at all times, over a high K high HR guy any day.
Put pressure on the pitcher incentivize guys to swing for doubles and we score a ton more runs... and HR will come naturally.
Heck, if nothing else, just go ahead and give DaShawn Keirsey a call up from our system. At 26 and his secodn stint at AA he is hitting over .300 (career .258) with 50-60 SB type speed.  Or trade fro Jordyn Adams from LA Angels, 
 
Just do SOMETHING!!!
We cannot just stand pat  and "hope" our guys will just magically turn it around. iF we do then not only is this season at risk, but we will go into 2024 with more questions than answers on the field, and have new openeings in FO and Head Coach to come in next year to start their own 2-3 year rebuild plan.

I’ve been watching Tyler White and the way he has been used, such that he has the second most AB of any Twin. His average is rising and he hit a recent home run. He has 26  HR in 760 MLB appearances (a Willie Wilson season, almost!) to go along with 103 RBIs.
The Twins need a first baseman, Kirilloff seems quite iffy now and White could slide right in and just in 550 AB, he would be expected to hit 19 HR with 75 RBIs.
It might take an unlikely chain of events for White to be the first baseman but I have to think they’re giving him the 2nd most AB on the whole roster for a reason.
 

I’ve been watching Tyler White and the way he has been used, such that he has the second most AB of any Twin. His average is rising and he hit a recent home run. He has 26  HR in 760 MLB appearances (a Willie Wilson season, almost!) to go along with 103 RBIs.
The Twins need a first baseman, Kirilloff seems quite iffy now and White could slide right in and just in 550 AB, he would be expected to hit 19 HR with 75 RBIs.
It might take an unlikely chain of events for White to be the first baseman but I have to think they’re giving him the 2nd most AB on the whole roster for a reason.
 

I’ve been watching Tyler White and the way he has been used, such that he has the second most AB of any Twin. His average is rising and he hit a recent home run. He has 26  HR in 760 MLB appearances (a Willie Wilson season, almost!) to go along with 103 RBIs.
The Twins need a first baseman, Kirilloff seems quite iffy now and White could slide right in and just in 550 AB, he would be expected to hit 19 HR with 75 RBIs.
It might take an unlikely chain of events for White to be the first baseman but I have to think they’re giving him the 2nd most AB on the whole roster for a reason.
 

I’ve been watching Tyler White and the way he has been used, such that he has the second most AB of any Twin. His average is rising and he hit a recent home run. He has 26  HR in 760 MLB appearances (a Willie Wilson season, almost!) to go along with 103 RBIs.
The Twins need a first baseman, Kirilloff seems quite iffy now and White could slide right in and just in 550 AB, he would be expected to hit 19 HR with 75 RBIs.
It might take an unlikely chain of events for White to be the first baseman but I have to think they’re giving him the 2nd most AB on the whole roster for a reason.
 

Was the long-standing way of referring to 75 RBIs correct or is the new style 75 RBI correct?
I think the first question that needs to be answered is what does RBI stand for? Runs Batted In or Run Batted in?
I maintain that RBI stands for Run Batted in, the singular. You would never say that a player has 1 RBIs or 1 Runs Batted In. But you would say the player had 1 RBI (Run Batted In).
That answers the question of what RBI stands for. Run Batted In. If that were not the case, and RBI stood for Runs Batted In, you could not use the singular. You wouldn’t say, Luis Arraez has 1 Runs Batted In after the season's first game. You would say Luis Arraez has 1 Run Batted In (RBI) after the first game.
With that established, it’s pretty simple. 1 dog, 2 dogs. 1 balloon, 2 balloons. 1 Bicycle, 2 bicycles. And 1 RBI, 2 RBIs, 1 RBI, 50 RBIs, 1 RBI,  75 RBIs.
 

Was the long-standing way of referring to 75 RBIs correct or is the new style 75 RBI correct?
I think the first question that needs to be answered is what does RBI stand for? Runs Batted In or Run Batted in?
I maintain that RBI stands for Run Batted in, the singular. You would never say that a player has 1 RBIs or 1 Runs Batted In. But you would say the player had 1 RBI (Run Batted In).
That answers the question of what RBI stands for. Run Batted In. If that were not the case, and RBI stood for Runs Batted In, you could not use the singular. You wouldn’t say, Luis Arraez has 1 Runs Batted In after the season's first game. You would say Luis Arraez has 1 Run Batted In (RBI) after the first game.
With that established, it’s pretty simple. 1 dog, 2 dogs. 1 balloon, 2 balloons. 1 Bicycle, 2 bicycles. And 1 RBI, 2 RBIs, 1 RBI, 50 RBIs, 1 RBI,  75 RBIs.
 

I wouldn’t have done things this way. I would have tried for Canha or J.D. Davis or even Binentendi. but the FO didn’t do that.
My opening day lineup breaks with the current conventional thinking but I honestly think the Twins will be better this way. That means Kepler moving to 4th OF and Sano a man without a position.
Here’s how I’d start:
LF Martin - I think Martin is ready and could hit .300 with a lot of doubles. 2nd would be Gordon as I think he will hit better than in 2021 and can steal bases at will, which would help the Twins have more ways to score, especially if Buxton is also stealing bases at will I think Martin could swipe a decent amount of bases as well. 3rd is Larnach and I do still think he’ll be a future star but when last we checked, he was overmatched in the majors and AAA both.
CF Buxton
RF Kirilloff
3B Urshela
SS Correa
2B Polanco
1b Miranda
C Sanchez/Jeffers
DH Conforto//Beckham/Sano/Martin/Gordon
I think Beckham has earned a job.
The rotation would be Gray, Bundy, Ober, Ryan, Winder.
Note: I’m not at all satisfied with that rotation. It’s basically one proven starter and 4 "I hope they pitch up to their ceiling but truly they are question masks"
I would still try to sign for Cueto and maybe send 6 years of Sands for 1 year of Manea.
 
 
 
 

Frustrated by Falvey and Levine’s approach the last two offseason and with the lockout in effect, I bought OOTP baseball for $4.99 in order to build the Twins my way using trades, free agent signings and keeping the up and coming pitching.
I set the trade slider a little more to the hard side the the easy side.

It seemed to carry over to free agent negotiations but I’m not sure. Prime example: I offered Byron Buxton basically the same deal the Twins signed him for and he came back and said, "I’m only entertaining serious offers"! It seemed he ignored the $8M per year for an MVP award and AB bonuses. He was so tough that to get him signed, I had to average over 20M yr. plus he wanted a 9 year deal. I got away with 8 but I had to have him.
When trying for free agents or making trades, I eschewed any player that I knew had been signed in real life or traded to a new team. I got messages along the way from Jim Pohlad and at one point, he said that I was having such a good offseason that he was raising my allowance from $203M budget (all expenses, not just payroll). At a budget of $203, the player payroll was $160M but he raised the budget to $210M and a player payroll of $170M. He must have seen quickly that I was going to be very aggressive striving to build a 2022 contender.
Some of the trades and signings saw me moving Max Kepler for Taijuan Walker.
Signing Jose Iglesias, attempting to sign Michael Pineda and Danny Duffy over extended negotiations (especially with Pineda) only to be spurned by both.
Trading Bailey Ober and Luis Arraez for Chris Bassit.
Releasing Dylan Bundy.
Signing Billy Hamilton to a very reasonable deal to be insurance for Byron Buxton.
Signing Carlos Rodon, which went surprisingly smoothly. Yes, I did offer him a fair contract.
Signing Ken Giles was exciting, knowing how it would solidify the bullpen.
The toughest one was attempting to sign Kris Bryant. I think he had me up to $173M and strung me along, then said the Cubs had a better offer. I ended up cutting it off but after a decent period of time passed, he came back and I was able to sign him at a bargain $15M yr for 5 yrs.
After spring training had ended, Johnny Cueto, having cut off negotiations, came back to me on the eve of the season opener and said he’d like to try again. I offered him more than he asked for 1 yr plus an option year and he signed in time for the season opener. After all the moves, I decided to promote Cole Sands to work out of the bullpen, a job he earned in OOTP baseball’s spring training.
Here are some graphics on your new, shiny, division contending 2022 Minnesota Twins!

Frustrated by Falvey and Levine’s approach the last two offseason and with the lockout in effect, I bought OOTP baseball for $4.99 in order to build the Twins my way using trades, free agent signings and keeping the up and coming pitching.
I set the trade slider a little more to the hard side the the easy side.

It seemed to carry over to free agent negotiations but I’m not sure. Prime example: I offered Byron Buxton basically the same deal the Twins signed him for and he came back and said, "I’m only entertaining serious offers"! It seemed he ignored the $8M per year for an MVP award and AB bonuses. He was so tough that to get him signed, I had to average over 20M yr. plus he wanted a 9 year deal. I got away with 8 but I had to have him.
When trying for free agents or making trades, I eschewed any player that I knew had been signed in real life or traded to a new team. I got messages along the way from Jim Pohlad and at one point, he said that I was having such a good offseason that he was raising my allowance from $203M budget (all expenses, not just payroll). At a budget of $203, the player payroll was $160M but he raised the budget to $210M and a player payroll of $170M. He must have seen quickly that I was going to be very aggressive striving to build a 2022 contender.
Some of the trades and signings saw me moving Max Kepler for Taijuan Walker.
Signing Jose Iglesias, attempting to sign Michael Pineda and Danny Duffy over extended negotiations (especially with Pineda) only to be spurned by both.
Trading Bailey Ober and Luis Arraez for Chris Bassit.
Releasing Dylan Bundy.
Signing Billy Hamilton to a very reasonable deal to be insurance for Byron Buxton.
Signing Carlos Rodon, which went surprisingly smoothly. Yes, I did offer him a fair contract.
Signing Ken Giles was exciting, knowing how it would solidify the bullpen.
The toughest one was attempting to sign Kris Bryant. I think he had me up to $173M and strung me along, then said the Cubs had a better offer. I ended up cutting it off but after a decent period of time passed, he came back and I was able to sign him at a bargain $15M yr for 5 yrs.
After spring training had ended, Johnny Cueto, having cut off negotiations, came back to me on the eve of the season opener and said he’d like to try again. I offered him more than he asked for 1 yr plus an option year and he signed in time for the season opener. After all the moves, I decided to promote Cole Sands to work out of the bullpen, a job he earned in OOTP baseball’s spring training.
Here are some graphics on your new, shiny, division contending 2022 Minnesota Twins!

In case anybody missed it, here’s the update, credit MLB Trade Rumors, on Danny Duffy’s status.
I would be strongly in favor of the Twins signing him to a 2 year deal, the first year at a minimum rate to pitch as a lefty out of the bullpen from sometime in July to the end of the season. Then a higher salary a/la Dylan Bundy in the second year for him to pitch out of the rotation.
And sign Michael Pineda for sure plus trade for a pitcher, possibly from Oakland. Jon Gray would be okay too.
With the pitching staff they’re going to have, they’ll have to beef up last year’s shaky offense. Castellanos would be be good and if both parties are amenable, Eddie Rosario would be my second choice. 

Here’s my Twins 2022 roster. Like Nick’s plan, there are moving parts where Donaldson DHs a decent amount and Miranda plays 3B, 1B, DH. Kirilloff takes over for Max Kepler in RF. Kepler just hasn’t been able to change from an ineffective pull first approach. I see Kirilloff as a hitter who can use more of the field and still blossom into a very fine hitter.
Hopefully the second-half Sano shows up next year. I’m optimistic about that.
I chose Iglesias as the SS for good D and his .271 average, much better than Simmons but for the same price.
I chose Mark Canha for LF, liking his prior 26, 17, and 16 HR seasons. And last year walking 77 times, stealing 12/14 bases, scoring 93 runs. Even with a .231 average, he had a .358 OBP. In any case, he should be much better than Cave, Larnach in 2021. 
Like Nick I’m signing Byron Buxton with an escalating deal and incentives.
I’m banking on Jose Miranda to log 500-550 ABs.
I like the Saint’s Mark Contreras as the 4th OF with Jimmy Kerrigan as an alternative at AAA.
For the rotation, I’m signing Robbie Ray as the ace with Danny Duffy as the #2 starter. That’s a significant part of my 142.1 million dollar payroll. I think Jim Pohlad will go for that. If they can’t get Ray, then Syndergaard and Verlander are other ace options. I’m bringing back the steady Michael Pineda, his 9-8 record and 3.62 ERA. Both sides want a reunion, so it’s just a great fit.
Ober and Ryan start as #4 and #5 starter. I’m one who thinks Charlie Barnes will eventually be a solid major league pitcher but maybe not next year. Cole Sands could be another guy getting some starts for the Twins.  Duran has a lot to prove. He would be a bonus.
I filled out the BP with some of the most talented AAA relievers and Ralph Garza Jr. who did a good job. Alcala’s continued growth will be a big and important factor.
I really like Nick Gordon and hope Rocco steals with Buxton, Canha and Gordon so the offense is more balanced.
Celestino also provides depth and could easily be up with the inevitable injuries. I like Kerrigan’s 19 HR and 10/12 SB.
I also want to emphasize that I do think that once Rooker gets the requisite amount of ABs at the ML level, he should hit 30 HR with a .240 -.270 average. So, he’s in play also depending on injuries.

 

Frank Viola had a very interesting tweet this morning. In a recent thread, I intimated that I felt the manager and Falvey and Levine should be dismissed. I’ve vacillated on it but since then, the team and outlook seems even worse. I just found this tweet by Frank Viola, one of the Twins greatest pitchers ever to be a confirmation of what I’ve felt this year. 
Does what Viola says surprise you? Does it carry weight with you? Do you agree? It rings far too true to me.
The last sentence of his Tweet is the most significant one "Wrong leadership equals no chance to succeed." That sounds like a call for change to me. I would argue that the failure of Falvey, Levine and Baldelli has been so spectacular that the Twins would be better off replacing Falvey, Levine and Baldelli with the best GM, Manager and and President of baseball operations that they can find. This is a judgement that is probably analogous to the Twins releasing a player that they really like as a person and had high hopes for. It’s a business and winning is the paramount goal.
There are way too many baseball moves that they’ve butchered to mention but the sequence that lead to Cave playing a significant role and still starting as we approach September is perhaps the most egregious of all. Not acquiring a better option for Buxton’s backup and a better replacement for Rosario cost the Twins wins. Happ and Shoemaker didn’t help.
 
 

Frank Viola had a very interesting tweet this morning. In a recent thread, I intimated that I felt the manager and Falvey and Levine should be dismissed. I’ve vacillated on it but since then, the team and outlook seems even worse. I just found this tweet by Frank Viola, one of the Twins greatest pitchers ever to be a confirmation of what I’ve felt this year. 
Does what Viola says surprise you? Does it carry weight with you? Do you agree? It rings far too true to me.
The last sentence of his Tweet is the most significant one "Wrong leadership equals no chance to succeed." That sounds like a call for change to me. I would argue that the failure of Falvey, Levine and Baldelli has been so spectacular that the Twins would be better off replacing Falvey, Levine and Baldelli with the best GM, Manager and and President of baseball operations that they can find. This is a judgement that is probably analogous to the Twins releasing a player that they really like as a person and had high hopes for. It’s a business and winning is the paramount goal.
There are way too many baseball moves that they’ve butchered to mention but the sequence that lead to Cave playing a significant role and still starting as we approach September is perhaps the most egregious of all. Not acquiring a better option for Buxton’s backup and a better replacement for Rosario cost the Twins wins. Happ and Shoemaker didn’t help.
 
 

I’d like to discuss the way I see forward for the Minnesota Twins to become a team ready for a deep playoff run or World Series victory. The focus will be on top quality pitching. I’ll use a couple of case studies of teams that had very deep and strong pitching and great success, those teams being the 1980 Baltimore Orioles and the 1972-1974 Oakland A’s.
Then I’ll take a look at how the Twins can get to that level.
First, how did I get to this point of believing pitching is more important than I originally thought?
Although, a Twins fan since 1964, the media and options for following the Twins on a more comprehensive level only opened up to me in the 1970s. I lived in Toledo, Ohio but had discovered the Twins at Tinker Field in Orlando when my Dad took me to a game vs. the Cincinnati Reds. The Twins won and the rest was history for me!
In the 1960s it was linescores in the newspaper and the occasional game of the week with Joe Garagiola and Tony Kubek. 
Then one glorious night in 1973, I thought to myself, "Wouldn’t it be great to be able to pick up Twins games on the radio." I had been twirling the station tuner knob that night pickng up any games I could. Seemingly miraculously, within 10-15 minutes I heard a new voice and paused to see what team(s) I had come across. Imagine my astonishment when I learned that it was the Twins broadcast from WHO in Des Moines, Iowa.
I first heard the voice of Herb Carneal that night and stayed up late listening to Twins baseball as my recollection is that it was a doubleheader, possibly from the west coast. Herb became my constant companion for many years and my love for the Twins grew exponentially. 
I remember annually thnking the the Twins were going to win the AL West this season and the next and the next but it never happened. Why? I couldn’t figure it out as they had such fine hitters as Jim Holt, Steve Braun, Rod Carew,  Bobby Darwin, Mike Cubbage, then Glenn Adams, Lyman Bostock and Larry Hisle. 
The 1977 team brought things into clear focus. The offense, while maybe not as deep as 2019, was at the upper echelon - arguably the greatest offense in Twins history. On June 26, 1977 I listened to and scored from my basement in Ohio, a 19-12 Twins win over the White Sox, listening to Harey Carey from 670 WMAQ in Chicago.
Alas, the Twins had a mediocre to poor pitching staff in 1977. That to go along with possibly the best hitting team in Twins history and, in my opinion, the greatest manager in Twins history - the brilliant tactician and innovator, Gene Mauch. Suffice to say, from 1977 on, I realized that only a team with very strong pitching could hope to be in the playoffs (back them it was only AL East vs. West, then the World Series) or win the World Series.
Let’s take a look at the 1977 Twins. (courtesy of baseball-reference.com)
Pos Name Age G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ C Butch Wynegar# 21 144 617 532 76 139 22 3 10 79 2 3 68 61 .261 .344 .370 .715 96 1B Rod Carew* 31 155 694 616 128 239 38 16 14 100 23 13 69 55 .388 .449 .570 1.019 178 2B Bob Randall 29 103 342 306 36 73 13 2 0 22 1 4 15 25 .239 .289 .294 .583 61 SS Roy Smalley# 24 150 680 584 93 135 21 5 6 56 5 5 74 89 .231 .316 .315 .631 74 3B Mike Cubbage* 26 129 464 417 60 110 16 5 9 55 1 4 37 49 .264 .321 .391 .712 94 LF Larry Hisle 30 141 620 546 95 165 36 3 28 119 21 10 56 106 .302 .369 .533 .902 144 CF Lyman Bostock* 26 153 660 593 104 199 36 12 14 90 16 7 51 59 .336 .389 .508 .897 144 RF Dan Ford 25 144 510 453 66 121 25 7 11 60 6 4 41 79 .267 .338 .426 .764 108 DH Craig Kusick 28 115 325 268 34 68 12 0 12 45 3 1 49 60 .254 .370 .433 .803 120 Pos Name Age G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ DH Rich Chiles* 27 108 295 261 31 69 16 1 3 36 0 1 23 17 .264 .323 .368 .691 89 DH Glenn Adams* 29 95 290 269 32 91 17 0 6 49 0 2 18 30 .338 .376 .468 .844 130 3B Jerry Terrell 30 93 235 214 32 48 6 0 1 20 10 4 11 21 .224 .263 .266 .530 46 2B Rob Wilfong* 23 73 193 171 22 42 1 1 1 13 10 4 17 26 .246 .321 .281 .602 67 LF Bob Gorinski 25 54 126 118 14 23 4 1 3 22 1 0 5 29 .195 .226 .322 .548 48 CF Willie Norwood 26 39 91 83 15 19 3 0 3 9 6 1 6 17 .229 .281 .373 .654 78 IF Luis Gomez 25 32 74 65 6 16 4 2 0 11 0 2 4 9 .246 .290 .369 .659 80 C Glenn Borgmann 27 17 54 43 12 11 1 0 2 7 0 0 11 9 .256 .407 .419 .826 128 C Bud Bulling 24 15 39 32 2 5 1 0 0 5 0 0 5 5 .156 .270 .188 .458 29 3B Larry Wolfe 24 8 27 25 3 6 1 0 0 6 0 0 1 0 .240 .269 .280 .549 51 2B Sam Perlozzo 26 10 27 24 6 7 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 3 .292 .346 .458 .804 119 DH Randy Bass* 23 9 19 19 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 .105 .105 .105 .211 -42 Next the pitching staff that held the team to an 84-77 record.
Pos Name Age W L ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP   Team Totals 27.1 84 77 4.36 161 161 126 35 4 25 1442.0 1546 776 698 151 507 737 91 4.21 1.424   Rank in 14 AL teams   7 8 12       11 9 10 8  12 12 12 10 7 12       Pos Name Age W L ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP SP Dave Goltz 28 20 11 3.36 39 39 0 19 2 0 303.0 284 129 113 23 91 186 119 3.42 1.238 SP Paul Thormodsgard 23 11 15 4.62 37 37 0 8 1 0 218.0 236 122 112 25 65 94 86 4.30 1.381 SP Geoff Zahn* 31 12 14 4.68 34 32 0 7 1 0 198.0 234 116 103 20 66 88 85 4.24 1.515 SP Pete Redfern 22 6 9 5.18 30 28 2 1 0 0 137.1 164 89 79 13 66 73 77 4.44 1.675 Pos Name Age W L ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP CL Tom Johnson 26 16 7 3.13 71 0 54 0 0 15 146.2 152 57 51 11 47 87 128 3.59 1.357 RP Ron Schueler 29 8 7 4.41 52 7 21 0 0 3 134.2 131 74 66 16 61 77 91 4.63 1.426 RP Tom Burgmeier* 33 6 4 5.09 61 0 20 0 0 7 97.1 113 56 55 15 33 35 79 5.10 1.500 RP Dave Johnson 28 2 5 4.58 30 6 16 0 0 0 72.2 86 42 37 7 23 33 88 4.24 1.500 RP Jeff Holly* 24 2 3 6.89 18 5 6 0 0 0 48.1 57 37 37 8 12 32 58 4.37 1.428 Pos Name Age W L ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP   Gary Serum 20 0 0 4.37 8 0 2 0 0 0 22.2 22 11 11 4 10 14 93 5.39 1.412   Bill Butler* 30 0 1 6.86 6 4 0 0 0 0 21.0 19 17 16 5 15 5 59 7.64 1.619   Mike Pazik* 27 1 0 2.50 3 3 0 0 0 0 18.0 18 5 5 1 6 6 163 3.79 1.333   Don Carrithers 27 0 1 6.91 7 0 3 0 0 0 14.1 16 13 11 2 6 3 59 5.60 1.535   Jim Shellenback* 33 0 0 7.94 5 0 0 0 0 0 5.2 10 7 5 1 5 3 54 6.62 2.647   Jim Hughes 25 0 0 2.08 2 0 2 0 0 0 4.1 4 1 1 0 1 1 209 2.97 1.154 Notice that the starting rotation was basically one pitcher deep, their ace, Dave Goltz, he of the knuckle-curve. The staff ERA was 4.36, which is not so much a reflection of the quality of the starting staff but of the superior work of two relievers who ate up 281.1 innings. Tom Johnson was the one most responsible for holding down the team ERA with his 3.13 ERA, 16-7 record and 146.2 innings as the closer! Amazingly, after the Twins had lost Bill Campbell and his 17-5 record in relief in 1976 to free-agency, they were able to plug in Johnson.
It’s pretty plain to see that the top 9 pitchers listed, excepting Goltz and Johnson, are what held back this team with a juggernaut offense from a possible division championship or even World Series victory. Just one quality starter.
Two other major factors influenced my thinking on the value of deep, quality pitching.
The first was the astonishing success of the 1972-1974 Oakland A’s, who may have won 5-7 World Series in a row except for the advent of free-agency. Charley Finley waved the white flag of surrender just as much as Calvin Griffith did and the Oakland dynasty was destroyed. Take a look at the pitching staff of a World Champion three years running. The names changed slightly but the prioritization on pitching is the teachable lesson! (courtesy of baseball-reference.com)
Pos Name Age W L ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP   Team Totals 26.7 94 68 3.29 162 162 116 46 12 41 1457.1 1311 532 143 494 797 109 3.83 1.239   Rank in 12 AL teams   2 11 2       9 2 2 3  2 3 9 4 8       Pos Name Age W L ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP SP Ken Holtzman* 27 21 13 2.97 40 40 0 16 4 0 297.1 275 98 22 66 157 120 3.18 1.147 SP Vida Blue* 23 20 9 3.28 37 37 0 13 4 0 263.2 214 96 26 105 158 109 3.89 1.210 SP Catfish Hunter 27 21 5 3.34 36 36 0 11 3 0 256.1 222 95 39 69 124 107 4.40 1.135 SP Blue Moon Odom 28 5 12 4.49 30 24 4 3 0 0 150.1 153 75 14 67 83 79 4.05 1.463 SP Dave Hamilton* 25 6 4 4.39 16 11 1 1 0 0 69.2 74 34 8 24 34 81 4.16 1.407 Pos Name Age W L ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP CL Rollie Fingers 26 7 8 1.92 62 2 49 0 0 22 126.2 107 27 5 39 110 186 2.36 1.153 RP Darold Knowles* 31 6 8 3.09 52 5 26 1 1 9 99.0 87 34 7 49 46 116 4.13 1.374 RP Horacio Pina 28 6 3 2.76 47 0 24 0 0 8 88.0 58 27 8 34 41 129 4.25 1.045 RP Paul Lindblad* 31 1 5 3.69 36 3 11 0 0 2 78.0 89 32 8 28 33 97 4.25 1.500 Pos Name Age W L ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP   Glenn Abbott 22 1 0 3.86 5 3 1 1 0 0 18.2 16 8 3 7 6 94 5.14 1.232   Rob Gardner* 28 0 0 4.91 3 0 0 0 0 0 7.1 10 4 2 4 2 77 7.20 1.909   Chuck Dobson 29 0 1 7.71 1 1 0 0 0 0 2.1 6 2 1 2 3 55 8.14 3.429 Second was playing table top baseball with a good friend who was an avid Orioles fan. We played my Twins team against his Orioles for many games, who while not having the offense of the Twins, kept running out a relentless rotation of Palmer, Flanagan, Dennis Martinez, Scott McGregor. I was defeated more often than not by this pitching staff and got used to being dominated. I was forever changed! This is the kind of staff I’d like to see the Twins aspire to! (courtesy of baseball-reference.com)
Pos Name Age W L ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP   Team Totals 26.8 90 71 3.56 161 161 96 65 14 33 1429.0 1340 566 107 509 754 99 3.60 1.294   Rank in 14 AL teams   5 10 5       1 2 2 11  2 4 4 7 5       Pos Name Age W L ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP SP Jim Palmer 32 21 12 2.46 38 38 0 19 6 0 296.0 246 81 19 97 138 143 3.48 1.159 SP Mike Flanagan* 26 19 15 4.03 40 40 0 17 2 0 281.1 271 126 22 87 167 87 3.37 1.273 SP Dennis Martinez 24 16 11 3.52 40 38 0 15 2 0 276.1 257 108 20 93 142 100 3.54 1.267 SP Scott McGregor* 24 15 13 3.32 35 32 2 13 4 1 233.0 217 86 19 47 94 106 3.46 1.133 Pos Name Age W L ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP CL Don Stanhouse 27 6 9 2.89 56 0 47 0 0 24 74.2 60 24 0 52 42 122 3.55 1.500 RP Joe Kerrigan 24 3 1 4.77 26 2 16 0 0 3 71.2 75 38 10 36 41 74 4.85 1.549 RP Tippy Martinez* 28 3 3 4.83 42 0 16 0 0 5 69.0 77 37 4 40 57 73 3.47 1.696 RP Nelson Briles 34 4 4 4.64 16 8 4 1 0 0 54.1 58 28 6 21 30 76 4.19 1.454 RP John Flinn 23 1 1 8.04 13 0 5 0 0 0 15.2 24 14 3 13 8 45 6.54 2.362 Pos Name Age W L ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP   Tim Stoddard 25 0 1 6.00 8 0 3 0 0 0 18.0 22 12 3 8 14 60 4.86 1.667   Dave Ford 21 1 0 0.00 2 1 1 0 0 0 15.0 10 0 0 2 5   2.32 0.800   Sammy Stewart 23 1 1 3.18 2 2 0 0 0 0 11.1 10 4 0 3 11 115 1.44 1.147   Earl Stephenson* 30 0 0 2.79 2 0 2 0 0 0 9.2 10 3 0 5 4 131 3.31 1.552   Elrod Hendricks 37 0 0 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0 2.1 1 0 0 1 0   3.87 0.857   Larry Harlow* 26 0 0 67.50 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.2 2 5 1 4 1 9 37.09 9.000 Now, let’s compare this year’s Twins staff to, first the 1977 Twins, and then secondly to the 1973 A’s and the 1978 Orioles. (courtesy of baseball-reference.com)
Pos Name Age W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP   Team Totals 30.4 29 41 .414 4.94 70 70 70 0 0 17 610.1 619 335 104 209 574 84 4.67 1.357   Rank in 15 AL teams   12 4   14       8 9 8 11  13 13 14 5 13       Pos Name Age W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP SP Jose Berrios 27 7 2 .778 3.56 14 14 0 0 0 0 83.1 70 33 10 21 87 115 3.58 1.092 SP J.A. Happ* 38 3 3 .500 6.12 12 12 0 0 0 0 60.1 69 41 11 18 44 67 5.13 1.442 SP Michael Pineda (10-day IL) 32 3 4 .429 3.70 11 11 0 0 0 0 56.0 49 23 10 15 51 111 4.48 1.143 SP Matt Shoemaker 34 2 8 .200 7.57 13 11 2 0 0 0 54.2 66 46 12 23 37 54 6.04 1.628 SP Kenta Maeda 33 2 2 .500 5.01 10 10 0 0 0 0 46.2 55 26 9 14 46 82 4.80 1.479 Pos Name Age W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP CL Taylor Rogers* 30 2 3 .400 2.73 28 0 11 0 0 7 29.2 26 9 3 5 41 152 2.23 1.045 RP Hansel Robles 30 3 3 .500 2.84 32 0 9 0 0 5 31.2 21 10 2 19 33 145 3.80 1.263 RP Jorge Alcala 25 1 1 .500 3.49 29 0 11 0 0 0 28.1 16 11 7 7 24 118 5.54 0.812 RP Tyler Duffey 30 0 2 .000 4.15 28 0 2 0 0 2 26.0 23 12 2 13 24 100 3.94 1.385 RP Alex Colome 32 2 4 .333 5.40 27 0 10 0 0 2 25.0 28 15 5 12 26 77 5.49 1.600 Pos Name Age W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP   Randy Dobnak 26 1 6 .143 7.83 13 5 3 0 0 1 43.2 60 38 11 12 25 53 6.19 1.649   Caleb Thielbar* 34 2 0 1.000 4.13 22 0 4 0 0 0 24.0 26 11 3 7 36 101 2.80 1.375   Bailey Ober 25 0 0   3.71 4 4 0 0 0 0 17.0 18 7 3 2 21 113 3.52 1.176   Cody Stashak (10-day IL) 27 0 0   6.89 15 0 1 0 0 0 15.2 16 12 2 10 26 61 3.62 1.660   Lewis Thorpe* (7-day IL) 25 0 2 .000 3.86 4 3 1 0 0 0 14.0 13 6 1 4 5 109 4.24 1.214   Luke Farrell 30 1 0 1.000 2.08 11 0 3 0 0 0 13.0 11 3 1 5 14 202 3.17 1.231   Shaun Anderson 26 0 0   9.35 4 0 0 0 0 0 8.2 13 9 1 5 8 46 4.90 2.077   Griffin Jax (40-man) 26 0 0   8.64 3 0 2 0 0 0 8.1 11 8 4 3 9 49 8.33 1.680   Derek Law 30 0 0   8.53 5 0 3 0 0 0 6.1 11 6 2 6 9 51 7.28 2.684   Juan Minaya 30 0 0   4.26 4 0 2 0 0 0 6.1 5 3 2 3 4 102 7.91 1.263   Devin Smeltzer* (10-day IL) 25 0 0   0.00 1 0 1 0 0 0 4.2 1 0 0 1 3   3.81 0.429   Brandon Waddell* 27 0 1 .000 11.25 4 0 2 0 0 0 4.0 10 5 2 3 1 40 11.42 3.250   Willians Astudillo (40-man) 29 0 0   3.00 3 0 3 0 0 0 3.0 1 1 1 1 0 153 8.51 0.667 Statistically, this is the worst pitching staff we’ve looked at. This rotation is basically a two man rotation out of 5 where the 1977 Twins were basically one. Staffs like the 1977 and 2021 Twins will never lead to a high quality team featuring one  and two viable starters type rotations. Obvious, right?
My argument would be that Falvey and Levine should be trying to get that to 4 or 5 quality starters and not put resources to players like J.A. Happ, Matt Shoemaker, Alex Colome or even Josh Donaldson. Donaldson has good qualities but one thing he isn’t is a quality pitcher.
What’s the way forward? I think, based on his 3.70 ERA so far and the virtual impossibility of signing 3 FA quality starters, that they need to re-sign Michael Pineda. They also need to re-sign Jose Berrios. That’s only 2 of 5 quality starters. We have to hope that Maeda rounds back into form. Further the FO is going to have to sign a quality free agent pitcher. Then we have to hope that Bailey Ober builds on what he as started so far. And hope that Barnes, Duran or Balazovic make a breakthrough. There are other good arms.
I’ve pictured below the kinds of pitchers we need in at least 3 or 4 spots. It would be nice to have Christy Mathewson as a Twin but, alas, that’s not possible. He’s my favorite pitcher of all time.
Let me know what you think. My motto is pitching, pitching and more pitching!!!
 

I’d like to discuss the way I see forward for the Minnesota Twins to become a team ready for a deep playoff run or World Series victory. The focus will be on top quality pitching. I’ll use a couple of case studies of teams that had very deep and strong pitching and great success, those teams being the 1980 Baltimore Orioles and the 1972-1974 Oakland A’s.
Then I’ll take a look at how the Twins can get to that level.
First, how did I get to this point of believing pitching is more important than I originally thought?
Although, a Twins fan since 1964, the media and options for following the Twins on a more comprehensive level only opened up to me in the 1970s. I lived in Toledo, Ohio but had discovered the Twins at Tinker Field in Orlando when my Dad took me to a game vs. the Cincinnati Reds. The Twins won and the rest was history for me!
In the 1960s it was linescores in the newspaper and the occasional game of the week with Joe Garagiola and Tony Kubek. 
Then one glorious night in 1973, I thought to myself, "Wouldn’t it be great to be able to pick up Twins games on the radio." I had been twirling the station tuner knob that night pickng up any games I could. Seemingly miraculously, within 10-15 minutes I heard a new voice and paused to see what team(s) I had come across. Imagine my astonishment when I learned that it was the Twins broadcast from WHO in Des Moines, Iowa.
I first heard the voice of Herb Carneal that night and stayed up late listening to Twins baseball as my recollection is that it was a doubleheader, possibly from the west coast. Herb became my constant companion for many years and my love for the Twins grew exponentially. 
I remember annually thnking the the Twins were going to win the AL West this season and the next and the next but it never happened. Why? I couldn’t figure it out as they had such fine hitters as Jim Holt, Steve Braun, Rod Carew,  Bobby Darwin, Mike Cubbage, then Glenn Adams, Lyman Bostock and Larry Hisle. 
The 1977 team brought things into clear focus. The offense, while maybe not as deep as 2019, was at the upper echelon - arguably the greatest offense in Twins history. On June 26, 1977 I listened to and scored from my basement in Ohio, a 19-12 Twins win over the White Sox, listening to Harey Carey from 670 WMAQ in Chicago.
Alas, the Twins had a mediocre to poor pitching staff in 1977. That to go along with possibly the best hitting team in Twins history and, in my opinion, the greatest manager in Twins history - the brilliant tactician and innovator, Gene Mauch. Suffice to say, from 1977 on, I realized that only a team with very strong pitching could hope to be in the playoffs (back them it was only AL East vs. West, then the World Series) or win the World Series.
Let’s take a look at the 1977 Twins. (courtesy of baseball-reference.com)
Pos Name Age G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ C Butch Wynegar# 21 144 617 532 76 139 22 3 10 79 2 3 68 61 .261 .344 .370 .715 96 1B Rod Carew* 31 155 694 616 128 239 38 16 14 100 23 13 69 55 .388 .449 .570 1.019 178 2B Bob Randall 29 103 342 306 36 73 13 2 0 22 1 4 15 25 .239 .289 .294 .583 61 SS Roy Smalley# 24 150 680 584 93 135 21 5 6 56 5 5 74 89 .231 .316 .315 .631 74 3B Mike Cubbage* 26 129 464 417 60 110 16 5 9 55 1 4 37 49 .264 .321 .391 .712 94 LF Larry Hisle 30 141 620 546 95 165 36 3 28 119 21 10 56 106 .302 .369 .533 .902 144 CF Lyman Bostock* 26 153 660 593 104 199 36 12 14 90 16 7 51 59 .336 .389 .508 .897 144 RF Dan Ford 25 144 510 453 66 121 25 7 11 60 6 4 41 79 .267 .338 .426 .764 108 DH Craig Kusick 28 115 325 268 34 68 12 0 12 45 3 1 49 60 .254 .370 .433 .803 120 Pos Name Age G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ DH Rich Chiles* 27 108 295 261 31 69 16 1 3 36 0 1 23 17 .264 .323 .368 .691 89 DH Glenn Adams* 29 95 290 269 32 91 17 0 6 49 0 2 18 30 .338 .376 .468 .844 130 3B Jerry Terrell 30 93 235 214 32 48 6 0 1 20 10 4 11 21 .224 .263 .266 .530 46 2B Rob Wilfong* 23 73 193 171 22 42 1 1 1 13 10 4 17 26 .246 .321 .281 .602 67 LF Bob Gorinski 25 54 126 118 14 23 4 1 3 22 1 0 5 29 .195 .226 .322 .548 48 CF Willie Norwood 26 39 91 83 15 19 3 0 3 9 6 1 6 17 .229 .281 .373 .654 78 IF Luis Gomez 25 32 74 65 6 16 4 2 0 11 0 2 4 9 .246 .290 .369 .659 80 C Glenn Borgmann 27 17 54 43 12 11 1 0 2 7 0 0 11 9 .256 .407 .419 .826 128 C Bud Bulling 24 15 39 32 2 5 1 0 0 5 0 0 5 5 .156 .270 .188 .458 29 3B Larry Wolfe 24 8 27 25 3 6 1 0 0 6 0 0 1 0 .240 .269 .280 .549 51 2B Sam Perlozzo 26 10 27 24 6 7 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 3 .292 .346 .458 .804 119 DH Randy Bass* 23 9 19 19 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 .105 .105 .105 .211 -42 Next the pitching staff that held the team to an 84-77 record.
Pos Name Age W L ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP   Team Totals 27.1 84 77 4.36 161 161 126 35 4 25 1442.0 1546 776 698 151 507 737 91 4.21 1.424   Rank in 14 AL teams   7 8 12       11 9 10 8  12 12 12 10 7 12       Pos Name Age W L ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP SP Dave Goltz 28 20 11 3.36 39 39 0 19 2 0 303.0 284 129 113 23 91 186 119 3.42 1.238 SP Paul Thormodsgard 23 11 15 4.62 37 37 0 8 1 0 218.0 236 122 112 25 65 94 86 4.30 1.381 SP Geoff Zahn* 31 12 14 4.68 34 32 0 7 1 0 198.0 234 116 103 20 66 88 85 4.24 1.515 SP Pete Redfern 22 6 9 5.18 30 28 2 1 0 0 137.1 164 89 79 13 66 73 77 4.44 1.675 Pos Name Age W L ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP CL Tom Johnson 26 16 7 3.13 71 0 54 0 0 15 146.2 152 57 51 11 47 87 128 3.59 1.357 RP Ron Schueler 29 8 7 4.41 52 7 21 0 0 3 134.2 131 74 66 16 61 77 91 4.63 1.426 RP Tom Burgmeier* 33 6 4 5.09 61 0 20 0 0 7 97.1 113 56 55 15 33 35 79 5.10 1.500 RP Dave Johnson 28 2 5 4.58 30 6 16 0 0 0 72.2 86 42 37 7 23 33 88 4.24 1.500 RP Jeff Holly* 24 2 3 6.89 18 5 6 0 0 0 48.1 57 37 37 8 12 32 58 4.37 1.428 Pos Name Age W L ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP   Gary Serum 20 0 0 4.37 8 0 2 0 0 0 22.2 22 11 11 4 10 14 93 5.39 1.412   Bill Butler* 30 0 1 6.86 6 4 0 0 0 0 21.0 19 17 16 5 15 5 59 7.64 1.619   Mike Pazik* 27 1 0 2.50 3 3 0 0 0 0 18.0 18 5 5 1 6 6 163 3.79 1.333   Don Carrithers 27 0 1 6.91 7 0 3 0 0 0 14.1 16 13 11 2 6 3 59 5.60 1.535   Jim Shellenback* 33 0 0 7.94 5 0 0 0 0 0 5.2 10 7 5 1 5 3 54 6.62 2.647   Jim Hughes 25 0 0 2.08 2 0 2 0 0 0 4.1 4 1 1 0 1 1 209 2.97 1.154 Notice that the starting rotation was basically one pitcher deep, their ace, Dave Goltz, he of the knuckle-curve. The staff ERA was 4.36, which is not so much a reflection of the quality of the starting staff but of the superior work of two relievers who ate up 281.1 innings. Tom Johnson was the one most responsible for holding down the team ERA with his 3.13 ERA, 16-7 record and 146.2 innings as the closer! Amazingly, after the Twins had lost Bill Campbell and his 17-5 record in relief in 1976 to free-agency, they were able to plug in Johnson.
It’s pretty plain to see that the top 9 pitchers listed, excepting Goltz and Johnson, are what held back this team with a juggernaut offense from a possible division championship or even World Series victory. Just one quality starter.
Two other major factors influenced my thinking on the value of deep, quality pitching.
The first was the astonishing success of the 1972-1974 Oakland A’s, who may have won 5-7 World Series in a row except for the advent of free-agency. Charley Finley waved the white flag of surrender just as much as Calvin Griffith did and the Oakland dynasty was destroyed. Take a look at the pitching staff of a World Champion three years running. The names changed slightly but the prioritization on pitching is the teachable lesson! (courtesy of baseball-reference.com)
Pos Name Age W L ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP   Team Totals 26.7 94 68 3.29 162 162 116 46 12 41 1457.1 1311 532 143 494 797 109 3.83 1.239   Rank in 12 AL teams   2 11 2       9 2 2 3  2 3 9 4 8       Pos Name Age W L ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP SP Ken Holtzman* 27 21 13 2.97 40 40 0 16 4 0 297.1 275 98 22 66 157 120 3.18 1.147 SP Vida Blue* 23 20 9 3.28 37 37 0 13 4 0 263.2 214 96 26 105 158 109 3.89 1.210 SP Catfish Hunter 27 21 5 3.34 36 36 0 11 3 0 256.1 222 95 39 69 124 107 4.40 1.135 SP Blue Moon Odom 28 5 12 4.49 30 24 4 3 0 0 150.1 153 75 14 67 83 79 4.05 1.463 SP Dave Hamilton* 25 6 4 4.39 16 11 1 1 0 0 69.2 74 34 8 24 34 81 4.16 1.407 Pos Name Age W L ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP CL Rollie Fingers 26 7 8 1.92 62 2 49 0 0 22 126.2 107 27 5 39 110 186 2.36 1.153 RP Darold Knowles* 31 6 8 3.09 52 5 26 1 1 9 99.0 87 34 7 49 46 116 4.13 1.374 RP Horacio Pina 28 6 3 2.76 47 0 24 0 0 8 88.0 58 27 8 34 41 129 4.25 1.045 RP Paul Lindblad* 31 1 5 3.69 36 3 11 0 0 2 78.0 89 32 8 28 33 97 4.25 1.500 Pos Name Age W L ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP   Glenn Abbott 22 1 0 3.86 5 3 1 1 0 0 18.2 16 8 3 7 6 94 5.14 1.232   Rob Gardner* 28 0 0 4.91 3 0 0 0 0 0 7.1 10 4 2 4 2 77 7.20 1.909   Chuck Dobson 29 0 1 7.71 1 1 0 0 0 0 2.1 6 2 1 2 3 55 8.14 3.429 Second was playing table top baseball with a good friend who was an avid Orioles fan. We played my Twins team against his Orioles for many games, who while not having the offense of the Twins, kept running out a relentless rotation of Palmer, Flanagan, Dennis Martinez, Scott McGregor. I was defeated more often than not by this pitching staff and got used to being dominated. I was forever changed! This is the kind of staff I’d like to see the Twins aspire to! (courtesy of baseball-reference.com)
Pos Name Age W L ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP   Team Totals 26.8 90 71 3.56 161 161 96 65 14 33 1429.0 1340 566 107 509 754 99 3.60 1.294   Rank in 14 AL teams   5 10 5       1 2 2 11  2 4 4 7 5       Pos Name Age W L ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP SP Jim Palmer 32 21 12 2.46 38 38 0 19 6 0 296.0 246 81 19 97 138 143 3.48 1.159 SP Mike Flanagan* 26 19 15 4.03 40 40 0 17 2 0 281.1 271 126 22 87 167 87 3.37 1.273 SP Dennis Martinez 24 16 11 3.52 40 38 0 15 2 0 276.1 257 108 20 93 142 100 3.54 1.267 SP Scott McGregor* 24 15 13 3.32 35 32 2 13 4 1 233.0 217 86 19 47 94 106 3.46 1.133 Pos Name Age W L ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP CL Don Stanhouse 27 6 9 2.89 56 0 47 0 0 24 74.2 60 24 0 52 42 122 3.55 1.500 RP Joe Kerrigan 24 3 1 4.77 26 2 16 0 0 3 71.2 75 38 10 36 41 74 4.85 1.549 RP Tippy Martinez* 28 3 3 4.83 42 0 16 0 0 5 69.0 77 37 4 40 57 73 3.47 1.696 RP Nelson Briles 34 4 4 4.64 16 8 4 1 0 0 54.1 58 28 6 21 30 76 4.19 1.454 RP John Flinn 23 1 1 8.04 13 0 5 0 0 0 15.2 24 14 3 13 8 45 6.54 2.362 Pos Name Age W L ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP   Tim Stoddard 25 0 1 6.00 8 0 3 0 0 0 18.0 22 12 3 8 14 60 4.86 1.667   Dave Ford 21 1 0 0.00 2 1 1 0 0 0 15.0 10 0 0 2 5   2.32 0.800   Sammy Stewart 23 1 1 3.18 2 2 0 0 0 0 11.1 10 4 0 3 11 115 1.44 1.147   Earl Stephenson* 30 0 0 2.79 2 0 2 0 0 0 9.2 10 3 0 5 4 131 3.31 1.552   Elrod Hendricks 37 0 0 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0 2.1 1 0 0 1 0   3.87 0.857   Larry Harlow* 26 0 0 67.50 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.2 2 5 1 4 1 9 37.09 9.000 Now, let’s compare this year’s Twins staff to, first the 1977 Twins, and then secondly to the 1973 A’s and the 1978 Orioles. (courtesy of baseball-reference.com)
Pos Name Age W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP   Team Totals 30.4 29 41 .414 4.94 70 70 70 0 0 17 610.1 619 335 104 209 574 84 4.67 1.357   Rank in 15 AL teams   12 4   14       8 9 8 11  13 13 14 5 13       Pos Name Age W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP SP Jose Berrios 27 7 2 .778 3.56 14 14 0 0 0 0 83.1 70 33 10 21 87 115 3.58 1.092 SP J.A. Happ* 38 3 3 .500 6.12 12 12 0 0 0 0 60.1 69 41 11 18 44 67 5.13 1.442 SP Michael Pineda (10-day IL) 32 3 4 .429 3.70 11 11 0 0 0 0 56.0 49 23 10 15 51 111 4.48 1.143 SP Matt Shoemaker 34 2 8 .200 7.57 13 11 2 0 0 0 54.2 66 46 12 23 37 54 6.04 1.628 SP Kenta Maeda 33 2 2 .500 5.01 10 10 0 0 0 0 46.2 55 26 9 14 46 82 4.80 1.479 Pos Name Age W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP CL Taylor Rogers* 30 2 3 .400 2.73 28 0 11 0 0 7 29.2 26 9 3 5 41 152 2.23 1.045 RP Hansel Robles 30 3 3 .500 2.84 32 0 9 0 0 5 31.2 21 10 2 19 33 145 3.80 1.263 RP Jorge Alcala 25 1 1 .500 3.49 29 0 11 0 0 0 28.1 16 11 7 7 24 118 5.54 0.812 RP Tyler Duffey 30 0 2 .000 4.15 28 0 2 0 0 2 26.0 23 12 2 13 24 100 3.94 1.385 RP Alex Colome 32 2 4 .333 5.40 27 0 10 0 0 2 25.0 28 15 5 12 26 77 5.49 1.600 Pos Name Age W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP   Randy Dobnak 26 1 6 .143 7.83 13 5 3 0 0 1 43.2 60 38 11 12 25 53 6.19 1.649   Caleb Thielbar* 34 2 0 1.000 4.13 22 0 4 0 0 0 24.0 26 11 3 7 36 101 2.80 1.375   Bailey Ober 25 0 0   3.71 4 4 0 0 0 0 17.0 18 7 3 2 21 113 3.52 1.176   Cody Stashak (10-day IL) 27 0 0   6.89 15 0 1 0 0 0 15.2 16 12 2 10 26 61 3.62 1.660   Lewis Thorpe* (7-day IL) 25 0 2 .000 3.86 4 3 1 0 0 0 14.0 13 6 1 4 5 109 4.24 1.214   Luke Farrell 30 1 0 1.000 2.08 11 0 3 0 0 0 13.0 11 3 1 5 14 202 3.17 1.231   Shaun Anderson 26 0 0   9.35 4 0 0 0 0 0 8.2 13 9 1 5 8 46 4.90 2.077   Griffin Jax (40-man) 26 0 0   8.64 3 0 2 0 0 0 8.1 11 8 4 3 9 49 8.33 1.680   Derek Law 30 0 0   8.53 5 0 3 0 0 0 6.1 11 6 2 6 9 51 7.28 2.684   Juan Minaya 30 0 0   4.26 4 0 2 0 0 0 6.1 5 3 2 3 4 102 7.91 1.263   Devin Smeltzer* (10-day IL) 25 0 0   0.00 1 0 1 0 0 0 4.2 1 0 0 1 3   3.81 0.429   Brandon Waddell* 27 0 1 .000 11.25 4 0 2 0 0 0 4.0 10 5 2 3 1 40 11.42 3.250   Willians Astudillo (40-man) 29 0 0   3.00 3 0 3 0 0 0 3.0 1 1 1 1 0 153 8.51 0.667 Statistically, this is the worst pitching staff we’ve looked at. This rotation is basically a two man rotation out of 5 where the 1977 Twins were basically one. Staffs like the 1977 and 2021 Twins will never lead to a high quality team featuring one  and two viable starters type rotations. Obvious, right?
My argument would be that Falvey and Levine should be trying to get that to 4 or 5 quality starters and not put resources to players like J.A. Happ, Matt Shoemaker, Alex Colome or even Josh Donaldson. Donaldson has good qualities but one thing he isn’t is a quality pitcher.
What’s the way forward? I think, based on his 3.70 ERA so far and the virtual impossibility of signing 3 FA quality starters, that they need to re-sign Michael Pineda. They also need to re-sign Jose Berrios. That’s only 2 of 5 quality starters. We have to hope that Maeda rounds back into form. Further the FO is going to have to sign a quality free agent pitcher. Then we have to hope that Bailey Ober builds on what he as started so far. And hope that Barnes, Duran or Balazovic make a breakthrough. There are other good arms.
I’ve pictured below the kinds of pitchers we need in at least 3 or 4 spots. It would be nice to have Christy Mathewson as a Twin but, alas, that’s not possible. He’s my favorite pitcher of all time.
Let me know what you think. My motto is pitching, pitching and more pitching!!!
 

Someone posted here on Twins Daily about a sense of a Twins shakeup. I love the Twins too much not to contribute my ideas for an immediate shakeup.
Here’s a basic lineup that would represent a shakeup. Of course, Buxton would take over CF when he’s available. I’ve got a keen eye on St. Paul and Wichita and there are myriad good prospects. Here’s a take on a new lineup and a fresh start:
3B- Jose Miranda
SS- Jorge Polanco
2B-Nick Gordon
1B-Josh Donaldson
LF-Alex Kirilloff
CF-Aaron Whitefield
RF-Trevor Larnach
C-make a trade
DH-Cruz and Kepler
Super Utility-Luis Arraez
Release Jake Cave
Starting pitching: Release Happ and Shoemaker and replace with Dobnak and Ober. Griffin Jax could be recalled as the next option.
Bullpen: Bring up Thorpe, Vasquez, Farrell and Yennier Cano, consider Matt Canterino currently with 1.13 ERA in high A Cedar Rapids..
Replace Falvey, Levine and Baldelli. Bring in a competent veteran baseball manager such as Jim Leyland. I think he would be Franconia-like in incisive in game decisions, which have been sorely lacking from Baldelli.
Keep an eye on: Balazovic (currently injured), Duran (currently injured), Ernie De La Trinidad (OF, solid start at Wichita), Gilberto Celestino
The idea here is to create a more balanced roster. My changes could allow a dynamic base stealing element with Gordon, Buxton and Whitefield. The extra speed could be used to garner the Twins some extra inning wins by pinch running Whitefield when Buxton returns. My overhaul also ushers in the era of what promise to be exciting big league careers for Kirilloff and Larnach!
I see a very talented and exciting player in Nick Gordon. He had an electrifying debut with the Twins, stealing two bases! He also leads St. Paul in hitting with a small sample size. Plus his 2019 body of work was deceptively above average for a second baseman, with 29 doubles in 292 AB and he slashed .298/.342/.459. Current slash at St. Paul .333/.429/.611. Fun fact: Gordon’s OPS+ with the Twins is 246. Obviously mitigated by one game sample size.
Miranda is off to a sizzling start at Wichita with a .370/.400/.652 slash line. Plus he’s only 22 years old. 
Sano and Kepler would have to reclaim their jobs. They have had not helped the Twins. Kepler may have been resurgent before his injury, but I would go with my new outfield and find ways to use Kepler where he can actually help the team.
Twins Daily is my go to place for information on the Twins. I hope my contribution here gets your juices flowing as a Twins fan. We definitely don’t want to tap into the definition of insanity: keep doing the same thing over and over and expect different results. WIN TWINS!!!
 
 
 
 

Someone posted here on Twins Daily about a sense of a Twins shakeup. I love the Twins too much not to contribute my ideas for an immediate shakeup.
Here’s a basic lineup that would represent a shakeup. Of course, Buxton would take over CF when he’s available. I’ve got a keen eye on St. Paul and Wichita and there are myriad good prospects. Here’s a take on a new lineup and a fresh start:
3B- Jose Miranda
SS- Jorge Polanco
2B-Nick Gordon
1B-Josh Donaldson
LF-Alex Kirilloff
CF-Aaron Whitefield
RF-Trevor Larnach
C-make a trade
DH-Cruz and Kepler
Super Utility-Luis Arraez
Release Jake Cave
Starting pitching: Release Happ and Shoemaker and replace with Dobnak and Ober. Griffin Jax could be recalled as the next option.
Bullpen: Bring up Thorpe, Vasquez, Farrell and Yennier Cano, consider Matt Canterino currently with 1.13 ERA in high A Cedar Rapids..
Replace Falvey, Levine and Baldelli. Bring in a competent veteran baseball manager such as Jim Leyland. I think he would be Franconia-like in incisive in game decisions, which have been sorely lacking from Baldelli.
Keep an eye on: Balazovic (currently injured), Duran (currently injured), Ernie De La Trinidad (OF, solid start at Wichita), Gilberto Celestino
The idea here is to create a more balanced roster. My changes could allow a dynamic base stealing element with Gordon, Buxton and Whitefield. The extra speed could be used to garner the Twins some extra inning wins by pinch running Whitefield when Buxton returns. My overhaul also ushers in the era of what promise to be exciting big league careers for Kirilloff and Larnach!
I see a very talented and exciting player in Nick Gordon. He had an electrifying debut with the Twins, stealing two bases! He also leads St. Paul in hitting with a small sample size. Plus his 2019 body of work was deceptively above average for a second baseman, with 29 doubles in 292 AB and he slashed .298/.342/.459. Current slash at St. Paul .333/.429/.611. Fun fact: Gordon’s OPS+ with the Twins is 246. Obviously mitigated by one game sample size.
Miranda is off to a sizzling start at Wichita with a .370/.400/.652 slash line. Plus he’s only 22 years old. 
Sano and Kepler would have to reclaim their jobs. They have had not helped the Twins. Kepler may have been resurgent before his injury, but I would go with my new outfield and find ways to use Kepler where he can actually help the team.
Twins Daily is my go to place for information on the Twins. I hope my contribution here gets your juices flowing as a Twins fan. We definitely don’t want to tap into the definition of insanity: keep doing the same thing over and over and expect different results. WIN TWINS!!!
 
 
 
 

Somewhat expected news dropped on Saturday night when LaVelle E. Neal of the Star Tribune basically removed Hyun-Jin Ryu from the Twins' potential list of targets in his latest Winter Meetings primer article.
 
Similar to Zack Wheeler, Ryu has a preference to stay on the coast. For Wheeler, the east was most desirable. But for Ryu, he would like to remain in or near Los Angeles, where he has spent his entire career.
 
With this presumably in mind, Madison Bumgarner has the best resume of the remaining free agent pitchers. Tom Froemming wrote today about why you shouldn't be fooled by Bumgarner's legacy.
 
There is no doubt that the Twins need to improve their rotation to repeat success, but if Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, and Ryu are off the board, and Bumgarner isn't as advertised, who is next?
 
His name may carry ill-advised weight because of the Cy Young Award back in 2015, but former Atlanta Braves hurler Dallas Keuchel could still provide depth to the staff for at least the next two years.
 
Keuchel is entering his age-32 season and has posted sub-4.00 ERA seasons in back-to-back years. His strikeout numbers don't pop, and his fastball averaged just 87.8 MPH in 2019, so how is he getting outs?
 
Keuchel posted the highest ground ball rate among pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched last year. He did benefit from his defense as his FIP was almost a full run higher than his ERA.
 
The Twins had one of the worst infield defenses in baseball in 2019, but can improve defensively and help maintain Keuchel's ERA with the common denominator: Josh Donaldson.
 
Donaldson saved 15 runs and posted a 2.4 UZR at third base last year for the Braves. Keuchel started two games in the NLDS and struggled, but that was mostly because he allowed three home runs in eight innings.
 
Donaldson's 6.1 bWAR in 2019 was higher than Wheeler, Bumgarner and Ryu, and was just shy of Strasburg and Cole. He will also likely demand only a three-year contract because of his age (he turns 34 on Sunday).
 
Acquiring Keuchel and Donaldson on three-year deals, along with team friendly contracts on Odorizzi, Pineda, and Alex Avila, is hardly a failed offseason. I would consider that haul a slam dunk with Donaldson as the headliner.
 
What do you think? Enjoy your Sunday!

Here is my first blueprint for the Twins offseason. I'm using baseballtradevalues.com to come up with the trade scenarios.
 
1) Let CJ Cron walk.
2) Re-sign Sergio Romo, 1 year 3 million. Re-sign Jason Castro, 1 years 6 million with an option.
3) Keep Odorizzi, either through QO or work out a 3 year deal.
4) Trade Eddie Rosario, Jordan Balazovic and Lewis Thorpe to Arizona for starter Zac Gallen. I REALLY like his upside, and he comes with 6 years of team control. His changeup and command would look great long term.
5) Trade Trevor Larnach, Brent Rooker, Nick Gordon and Blayne Enlow to Miami for Brian Anderson. 4 years of team control, solid defensive 3rd baseman and can hit. This would move Miguel Sano to 1B. This might be an underpay in trade value, but I really think he would upgrade our infield defense.
6) Sign Madison Bumgarner, 4 year deal, 88 million. I think he is up for a 2nd wind in his career, like Justin Verlander has had with Houston.
7) Sign Jake Diekman, 1 year 8 million with an option.
8) Sign Alex Gordon, 1 year 13 million with an option.
 
C Mitch Garver 0.60
1B Miguel Sano 5.50
2B Luis Arraez 0.60
SS Jorge Polanco 4.0
3B Brian Anderson 0.60
LF Alex Gordon 13.0
CF Byron Buxton 3.50
RF Max Kepler 6.3
DH Nelson Cruz 12
 
Starting lineup total cost = 46.10 million
 
Bench
Jason Castro 6.0
Marwin Gonzalez 9.0
Lamonte Wade 0.60
Ehire Adrianza 3.0
 
Bench total cost = 18.6
 
Rotation
Madison Bumgarner 22.0
Jose Berrios 4.5
Jake Odorizzi 17.8, or give or take 15
Zac Gallen 0.60
Randy Dobnak (or Devin Smeltzer, until Duran/Graterol/et al are ready) 0.60
 
Rotation cost = 42.7 to 45.5, depending on Odorizzi signing a 3 year deal or taking the QO
 
Bullpen
Taylor Rogers 4.0
Tyler Duffey 1.3
Trevor May 2.5
Jake Diekman 8.0
Sergio Romo 3.0
Zack Littell 0.60
Cody Stashak 0.60
Graterol/Alcala/Smeltzer/churn of guys between AAA and the majors 0.60
 
Total bullpen cost = 20.6
 
Total team cost
 
Lineup = 46.1
Bench = 18.6
Rotation = 45.5 (I'm putting this in as if Odorizzi takes the QO)
Bullpen = 20.6
________________
Total = 130.8
 
 
We traded away a lot of prospect capital for the guys coming back. But we also would still, potentially have 4-5 top 100 prospects, all who could make their debuts this year, not including Graterol who made his debut this year. But there would certainly be room for Kirilloff and Lewis to push to make the team at some point in 2020 ongoing.
 
 
Thoughts?