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Everything posted by Riverbrian
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It's hard for me to criticize the process without knowing it. All I can do is be disappointed in the result two years in a row without knowing exactly how it didn't work out for what I wanted. I can type buyers buy all I want and I'll continue to type it because I believe it but I don't know what teams were asking when it comes to any of the trade discussions that the Twins were having with teams. If teams were insistent on Festa for example and not moving off of Festa in discussions. I'm probably going home empty. I'm not trading Festa for a rental no matter how many times I type buyers buy. I simply don't know... I'm not willing to hang anyone for my disappointment without knowing... but it's odd that other teams were able to get deals done in the past two years and the Twins came up empty two years in a row. Will the lack of action cost us this season. Who knows? We could have traded for Jazz Chisholm, Tarik Skubal and Tanner Scott and still miss the playoffs. We could do nothing like we did and go on a 20 game winning streak. I thought we needed offense at the trade deadline last year. In the playoffs last year... offense was probably what brought us down. Does that make me right? It does not because it doesn't mean that a satisfactory offensive addition would have been the difference in the playoffs. The trade deadline is the last outpost to resupply on the Oregon Trail. For that reason, I think it's important to pick up supplies. However, just because you didn't pick up a chamber pot doesn't mean you can't relieve yourself in the woods. And... And... Just because you picked up a chamber pot, doesn't mean it won't fall into the river when the wagon tips over. The only thing that I'm reasonably sure of. It isn't just a matter of waiting for Correa, Buxton and Ryan to get back so we can show that we have the team RIGHT NOW and don't need anyone. Correa, Buxton and Ryan just might come back and be available for our playoff hopes and dreams but I'm willing to bet that someone else or someone else plural will go down (maybe even Correa or Buxton again) and not be available come playoff time and that's why the extra supplies are a good idea. Anyway... I'm disappointed that we didn't pick up a chamber pot but I'm still on the wagon heading west. I hope I know what Poison Ivy looks like.
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I've told my kids many times. If you don't understand why something is happening... follow the money. The Answer is usually somewhere in that vicinity. I sure don't understand two years of deadline tepidness so I know where I'd start looking for the answer. The TV money... Yeah... I can see that... but it doesn't explain last year entirely. Correa along with Vazquez and Gallo was a pretty significant uptick that might have explained last year as well.
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It's not even about money for me. Just bring someone who can help. Someone who can deepen the squad. We still have to get through August and September with health and I'll bet anyone that we won't. There were players who moved at the deadline that could have helped us that were not necessarily expensive in terms of payroll. Prospect cost of course but not major financial hits. At least not for this year. They were rumored to be in on Kikuchi. A Rental that would have added 4 million to the payroll. So if we believe the rumors... they were able to add 4 million more. We were rumored to be in on Fedde. That's about 3 Million this year and 7 million next year so they were willing to tack on 7 million for next year. We didn't even need to spend that much. Tanner Scott would have been a great addition. A Rental around 2 million. Gregory Soto has been really average for Philadelphia and he has been brutal with the Orioles since the trade deadline but I would have taken a shot on his huge left handed arm. Around 2 Million remaining this season and his final year of arb next year. Chafin was a 2 million dollar rental. On the right side of the bullpen Erceg is making the minimum with 5 years of control. I would have loved to have added Bryan De La Cruz. He's making the minimum with 3 years of control to come. Danny Jansen would have cost a couple of million as a rental. Paredes would have cost a couple million with 3 years of control in the following years. Jazz Chisolm would have been less than a million with 2 more arb years. Arozarena would have cost about 3 million this year with two arb years to come. I don't know what happened during the course of trade exploration phone calls but to come away basically blank for two years in a row is very strange. Something, Someone for some reason is holding them back.
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Buyers Buy and Sellers Sell. Doing nothing is standing still. I've heard Thad Lavine actually say in reference to trade deadlines that "doing nothing is standing still" while being interviewed a few years back. I thought he was exactly right when he said it and I think he is still exactly right. Doing Nothing is indeed standing still. Yet... here we are... two deadlines in a row. Trevor Richards is the sum of two deadlines in a row of Twins teams in contention. I don't who is attaching the shackles but the front office has clearly been shackled and chained by something or someone either self imposed or by superiors... something ain't right. The quotes afterwards were about how much they like their team and money had nothing to do with it. OK... let's assume that's true. Did they like their team on August 3, 2023... 3 days after the deadline when they selected the contract of Dallas Kuechel or August 4, 2023... 4 days after the deadline when the pulled Jordan Luplow off the waiver wire. Did they like their team on August 9, 2024... 9 days after the deadline when Joe Ryan and Brooks Lee hit the IL or on August 13th when Byron Buxton flamed that hip leading to a DL stint. Buyers Buy... Sellers Sell. Your team on August 1 can be much different on September 20th let alone August 3.
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The Padres as a team are heavy left handed team at the plate. They currently Rank 5th in MLB against Right Handed Pitching. They currently rank tied for 17th against Left Handed Pitching. Splits are real... it can't be denied... however... I contend that teams should focus on the Right Handed pitcher when building a roster and take your lumps against left handed pitching because 75% of pitching is right handed. I have become steadfast and stubborn in my dislike for specialists taking up roster space.
- 54 replies
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- bailey ober
- austin martin
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Agreed I'm sure the analysts send Rocco the numbers so he would have a chance to review them. Wade is not a threat and easily pinch hit for. Rocco had to know that was Solano was the next move by Schildt once Okert is brought in. They were not going to pinch hit Arraez and Profar has been stronger against left handers. The only justification for the move is: Slighty better odds against Arraez who is a tough out either way and a big advantage against Cronenworth who was 4th in the order. The Padres are interesting because they have a lot of left handers in the lineup. Arraez, Cronenworth and Merrill do not platoon. Cronenworth and Merrill have poor numbers against left handers. Cronenworth and Merrill are the two guys to target a left hander since Schildt tends to let them hit... However, Schildt protects Cronenworth with back to back tough right handers in Machado and Bogaerts. Merrill follows the righties in the order but if you drop a left hander against Merrill... Solono will pinch hit for Peralta followed by a right handed catcher. It brings me back to a point that I often make when it comes to the bullpen. There is nowhere to run... nowhere to hide. There is no such thing as low leverage in the bullpen. You need relievers front to back who can get hitters out period regardless of what batters box they stand in. You want to roster a left handed specialist with a two plus WHIP against right handers. The Padres are a heavy left handed team... This is the team we signed him to face and it still doesn't work because the move is easily countered. I was sleeping... so the context is something I have to build from the box score so I'm not comfortable commenting but this is what it looks like to me. I would have let Ober face one more hitter (Right Handed Bogaerts) after the Machado home run. If I was going to use Okert last night... and you have to use the people in your bullpen... there is nowhere to run... nowhere to hide. I would have brought Okert in to face the left handed Merrill. Let Schildt pinch hit for Merrill if he wants to... take out the CF... he probably won't. Roll the Dice on the light hitting right handed Campusano and then let Solano pinch hit for Wade. If Okert can't get through those three at the bottom of the order. Arraez is next would be his last. Then you can bring in Jax to face Switch, Left, Right, Right. Since he brought in Jax first. Okert was the guy who made sense to face Left, Left, Switch, Left which of course... was easily countered.
- 54 replies
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- bailey ober
- austin martin
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If the Twins are going to continue keeping the young lefties away from left handed pitchers. They will need to spend three roster spots on short siders... for that role... Santana is a decent choice. Expensive for a budget challenged team but a good short sider. The problem is... Well... you and I both know the problem. Carlos has 288 AB's against Right Handers. .215 BA - .682 OPS. This is below average. He has 118 AB's against Lefties. .305 BA - .952 OPS. I'd say the Twins doubled down on 11... hit a 4. Stood on 15 while the dealer busted. I'd rather the Twins spend that limited 5 million dollars tucked away in their sock drawer on a player who can hit the right handed pitchers that comprise 75% of the arms on the MLB tour.
- 45 replies
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- age 39
- first base
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I typically don't comment on the game unless I actually watched the game. I went to bed around the 4th inning. However, I will put my helmet on and say this. Okert vs LHB - OPS .530 - 59 PA's Okert vs RHB - OPS .956 - 88 PA's The batting order in the 8th for the Padres went Left, Left Switch, Left, Right, Right. If you have an Okert on your roster... That's when you deploy an Okert. Left Left Switch Left. Now... That may sound like a defense of Okert or a defense of Baldelli. It's not. If I could direct your attention to the 88 PA's vs RHB and the 59 PA's vs LHB. This is what happens when you roster specialists. Okert gets lefties out but faces more right handers. When you face more right handed hitters to the tune of OPS .956 WHIP 2.06. Is there anything special left about this specialist? I'd contend the benefit has been drowned. Okert, Margot... Same damn boat as far as I'm concerned. Oh Well... Today is a new day. Strap it on... Go Twins.
- 54 replies
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- bailey ober
- austin martin
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Seemingly but not really. I haven't seen Kiersay or Severino play other than a couple of games that I attended in St. Paul. I make no predictions on what they would do at the major league level. That's why I have no idea who they are. I see the stats that they have accumulated at the AAA level and those stats are decent but I make no predictions on what they would do at the major league level. When I say that I won't take my eye off the entire roster. I'm talking about the major league roster. Future health and future needs are yet to be determined. Those 26 man roster curve balls could be thrown at the last moment as we enter the playoffs. I want the Twins front office to plan for the possibility constantly and the best way to plan for it... is not to settle for below average play... ANYWHERE on the 26 man roster. I don't look at 9 players on the offensive side of ledger and assume we are set. I look at all 13... because if you have a couple of players on the 26 man roster who are below average. You are an injury or two away from needing below average average to perform in the playoffs. I may not know who Keirsay or Severino are but I do know who Margot and Farmer are.
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In my opinion... Julien can hit. I have high hopes for him and I'd be willing to bet on him. I'd like to see his patience uptick a notch or two toward the aggressiveness side of the ledger. It's Ok to wait on your pitch for a couple of strikes but once he has two strikes on him... I'd like to see him stop looking at those called third strikes a little. Young players can go through bad stretches and old players can go through bad stretches. Unless you are a superstar and there are only a handful of those guys in the league... I don't see much difference between a young player and vet when it comes to the ups and downs of a season or career. Young players with options can be sent down and we assume that it is some sort of being too young to adjust thing. Old players can't be sent down so they are allowed to work kinks out at the major league level and we assume that it's just a vet doing what a vet was supposed to be doing. When October hits and we are in the playoffs. I'd place my bets on Julien over others currently on the roster.
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Padres 5, Twins 3: Zebby Matthews Makes His Own Mess
Riverbrian replied to Nate Palmer's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The Error from Santana slash Zebby was a pretty key moment in the game. It should have been two outs and nobody on... Following that error with two walks resulted in a crooked number. That crooked number was the difference in the game. Strap it on... Another game tonight. -
I have no idea who Kiersay is. Or who Severino is for that matter. But... I'm not afraid of youth. I am absolutely afraid of locking in with below average players with the assumption that we can't do better than below average at any major league roster spot. We have two players on the Twins roster with an OPS against Right Handed Pitchers that are under .600 I understand that they are on the roster to face Left Handed Pitchers but I want to be clear that they are mere injuries away from being asked to hit right handers in the playoffs and to this date they have both faced an equal amount of Right Handers. Teams need to constantly pressure the floor of the roster because you never know when the floor will be needed. I like the roster we have... I think we have been performing offensively better than a large majority of teams in MLB. I really don't have any complaints. However... I'm never going to take my eye off the entire roster and I'm never going to assume we will stay healthy and I'm never going accept injuries as an excuse when they happen if we remain static with under performing players. I am also never going to assume that the front office or (I for that matter) knows what players will do with opportunity provided. The only thing you can do... is deal with those who are not performing when opportunity is provided and provide opportunity to someone else.
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Assuming all are healthy - My playoff lineup would be. Vs. RH 3b - Lewis 1b - Miranda DH - Wallner SS - Correa LF - Larnach CF - Buxton 2B - Castro C - Jeffers RF - Kepler Extras: Santana, Martin, Julien and Vazquez VS LH 3B - Lewis 2B - Castro SS - Correa 1B - Santana CF - Buxton LF - Wallner C - Jeffers DH - Miranda RF - Kepler Extras: Larnach, Martin, Julien and Vazquez Margot and Farmer are not on the roster. This is a playoff roster... If they remain on the roster... they are an injury away from starting against Right Handers in the playoffs. They are gone. Julien and Martin will be on the roster in their place, they may be in the extra catagory but they will be given playing time through out September and allowed to compete for playoff playing time. Allowed the opportunity to get better and compete. If they fail to earn it... they can be sent down. But... I am choosing Julien and Martin over Margot and Farmer and I'm not thinking twice about it. Wallner will not be platooned. His OPS is currently .954. I'm not going to accept any logic that Wallner can OPS .998 against right handers yet still has no chance against left handers like his OPS against lefties is frozen in place no matter how well he is swinging the bat against righties. Like hotness against right handed pitchers will only happen against right handers and show no improvement against lefties. His OPS against may be lower against left handers but seeing the ball well is seeing the ball well and I'm willing to bet that Wallner can out perform Margot and Farmer against lefties if he is crushing right handers like he is. Kepler is barely hanging on. He gets the last spot in the starting lineup against both Right Handers and Left Handers. Ultimately a lineup that has Kepler hitting in the 9 hole is pretty good.
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Former Twins, Where are they now? 2024 edition
Riverbrian replied to stringer bell's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
This is exactly what teams should do. When a player has the combination of expiring contract and a 73 OPS+. It is exactly what teams should do with that player. The Tigers sold at the deadline and are currently 9 games back of the last wild card spot. Torkelson, Jung and Sweeney have been called up from the minors. Those who are not playing well with expiring contracts should be thrown overboard. -
Right now... I'd guess we have two players Julien and Martin who could be sent down to AAA but those two are keeping the seat warm for Correa and Buxton and hopefully their eventual returns. After Julien and Martin... I'm not sure who Kirilloff would replace on the roster. Miranda certainly shouldn't be sent down since he has been performing. They are not going to cut Margot or Farmer for Kirilloff so they could sit on Kirilloff until Santana or Wallner or Larnach or Kepler gets hurt or goes into a Kirilloff sized funk. Until then... I'm not sure the Twins are in a hurry to get Kirilloff ready to go.
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That's good new for Alex and the Twins. With that information... I'd say that the wall this article refers to does not have writing on it. There would be no need to make a hard decision on him prematurely unless there is a 40 man crunch this off-season and the organization would have to be pretty down on him for him to not survive a roster crunch. The key is going to be what happens the rest of the season. Is he done for the year? If he is not... where does he report to when he comes back? That option remaining makes it less likely that we trade him to Miami for Okert. If it gets burned this year... people can start writing on the wall.
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On June 13th... It was announced that Alex Kirilloff was sent to AAA. On June 18th... 5 days later it was announced that Alex Kirilloff was not going to St. Paul but going onto the injured list. I've seen quotes from Alex admitting that he understated the severity of his injury because he wanted to keep playing. I've seen quotes from Rocco stating that Alex needs to do a better job of communicating his health status with the club. Question #1... I assume because he never played for St. Paul that his one option still hasn't been used up but I have to ask... announcing that a player is reporting to St. Paul doesn't burn the option. That question is important because if he runs out of options his situation with the club change drastically. If his back improves this year and he's ready to go this year. Where does the team send him? Does he burn that option and report to St. Paul or does he report to Target Field for major league action? If he burns that option... his standing with the club in 2025 is threatened. His clock has run out. There is no more space to maneuver. He has to perform or put on waivers.
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Reviewing the Jorge Polanco Trade
Riverbrian replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I look at it a little different. I was excited about the depth. I thought that our depth had the potential to protect the team from the things that test a team every year ... things like injuries and poor play. The way I see it. When you have depth... that's when you add top end players... not trade them. I don't see depth as something to remove. I see depth as something to relentlessly pursue. True depth is the only thing that can make your team bulletproof. A starting 9 and 4 guys on the bench is not depth because that is 4 guys that you don't want to play. Mainly... I just don't see Polanco and Julien on the same roster as a problem. I see it as something to strive for. I was excited about that depth. I wasn't looking for more depth. Adding more depth doesn't make sense. That's why I questioned if it was a good idea to take a Polanco type talent and replace him with what I thought was 3 lesser players. I am not going to use hindsight to change my position. I recognize that Santana has out played Polanco thus far in 2024. It was my opinion that the Twins should have been adding this off-season not subtracting. I get budgets... if the team has to cut... they have to cut. However... they took the Polanco money and spent it on 3 lesser players. We didn't need more depth... we needed top end players like Polanco. Out of all the players Seattle sent to the Twins and all the players that the Twins added to the roster after Polanco was traded to Seattle. Polanco was clearly the best player changing teams. The Twins should have been adding Polanco types not subtracting them. Polanco was the best player changing teams and it wasn't really close. As for JD Martinez... I have a bad habit of throwing out specific examples when making a broader point which causes people to look at the specific example. It isn't worth discussing JD Martinez... I was just throwing a 12 million dollar example out there. The broader point was that the Polanco money could have been spent a number of different ways that didn't involve Santana. I was only making that point because some jerk was calling me disingenuous for listing both sides of the discussion and accusing me of ignoring something that I pointed out. The bottom line in regards to my thoughts are this: 1. At the time... I questioned if it was the right move to to turn Polanco into three lesser players. I have been forced to defend that position which has turned me into a stronger advocate for keeping Polanco that I probably intended to be. I still question if it was the right move and the reason I still question it is because it's a process related question. Santana has outplayed Polanco thus far so in the end. It worked out. 2. If Polanco was still on the team... I'd probably be complaining about his poor play and expiring contract. I don't deny this. Yet at the time of the trade... no one would have been able to convince me that we didn't have room for Polanco and Julien on the roster and no one would have been able to convince me that Santana was better than Polanco. 3. No matter my opinion... the Twins have done very very well offensively this season. 4. We are mere injuries away from Margot starting in the playoffs against a right handed pitcher and that's why it matters. It's also why I'd probably be complaining about Polanco on the roster right now while still saying that I think he shouldn't have been sold for what I felt were lesser parts.- 63 replies
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- jorge polanco
- justin topa
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Hot streaks start and stop on a dime for all 30 teams. Cold streaks and start and stop on a dime for all 30 teams. You will drive yourself crazy thinking teams with a lesser record are winnable games and teams with a better record are difficult games. They are all winnable games. They are all difficult games. Direct competition against the teams you are chasing or fending off like we just concluded with Cleveland and Kansas City are the ultra important stretches because you can knock them down while rising up. With that said... Yes Texas and San Diego will be an important stretch of games for us. So will St. Louis and Atlanta and Toronto and so on. Go Twins!!!
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Context will determine where Lewis needs to play. Future context is yet to be determined. I think locking him into a position is a mistake because he can play multiple positions. If we have the opportunity to trade for Nolan Arenado are we going to say no because Lewis locked into third base. Of course he can move to another position if needed. Royce Lewis is an athlete and a superstar. Utilize him wherever the context of the team needs him to be.
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Reviewing the Jorge Polanco Trade
Riverbrian replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'm not sure you know what disingenuous means. I have been sincere and candid. You accuse me of being disingenuous because "I admit" Santana was signed with the savings". Presenting the opposite side shows consideration of both sides. I also admit that Santana has had the better year because it would be disingenuous to not do that. Mike Sixel can thumbs down my post. You can use big words that you don't seem to understand. I can block a poster because he belligerently and continually distorted my thoughts on the trade. Let me simplify my position. When the trade was made... I felt Polanco was the best player involved and it wasn't really that close. I felt the 2024 team should be adding the best player involved in a trade not trading it. I wasn't interested in prospects. I was interested in making the 2024 team better. Polanco had been a solid hitter every year that didn't need to be platooned. I realize that some will claim that they saw this drop in production coming from the 30 year old Polanco. I'm sure that some will claim that they saw this the meteoric rise to slightly above average from the 38 year old Santana. Yes... Santana has been better than Polanco but let's be clear... while Santana was indirectly signed by freeing up Polanco money along with others. They could have taken that money and spent it on (For Example) J.D. Martinez instead so Santana doesn't get to be included in the trade. And no matter what Polanco has done to this point. He could still help the Mariners in August, September and the playoffs. Will Desclafini, Topa, Gonzalez or Bowen? The Twins only win this trade in the future if Gonzalez or Bowen turn into something around 2026 which I admit is possible.- 63 replies
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- jorge polanco
- justin topa
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Reviewing the Jorge Polanco Trade
Riverbrian replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I will continue to say what I said before. I questioned the trade at the time and I still question it regardless of the 2024 numbers. You might ask. How RB can you continue to question it? Simple. When the trade was made and the off season complete… nobody would have been able to convince me that Polonco wasn’t the best hitter of all the moving pieces directly or indirectly involved. i don’t care how Polonco hit this year or Santana hit this year. In March I didn’t think the trade helped us in 2024. I felt Polonco was the best hitter of the bunch and he didnt need to be platooned. They spent the Polonco Money on Desclafini, Santana and Margot. I questioned that. Santana has done very well but I felt Polonco was the best hitter of the bunch at the time. They needed two roster spots in Julien and Farmer combined to take up the one spot Polonco would have occupied. And of course the log jam argument. I laughed at it then and I laugh at it now. Who won the trade? That depends on the development of the prospects. Right now…in 2024… the Mariners won the trade because Polonco is the only player active at the MLB level.- 63 replies
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- jorge polanco
- justin topa
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Twins 6, Guardians 3: Matt Wallner Conquers Apple TV+
Riverbrian replied to Matt Braun's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
My bet is with Rocco.- 93 replies
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- matt wallner
- louis varland
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Twins 6, Guardians 3: Matt Wallner Conquers Apple TV+
Riverbrian replied to Matt Braun's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I understand the splits both historical and small sample. In all of my arguments I have always acknowledged the numbers of left vs. left. In this particular discussion. If a batter is hot like Wallner is hot. Would that hotness only apply to right handers? Could he be seeing the ball good… swing feeling good to the point where he just might hit some homers against left handers.- 93 replies
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- matt wallner
- louis varland
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