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Everything posted by Riverbrian
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It's a sensible point. I won't really argue it because it is sensible. I make 162 game reasoning in my points when I complain about young left handed hitters atrophying against left handed pitching because they will be needed over the long haul. I make 162 game considerations when I complain about the short sider on the roster being needed over the long haul. You are right Cleavinger has now pitched two days in a row is most likely not available for todays game. To support what you are saying... I've often wondered why Rocco will at times (actually a lot of the time... if not most of the time) stack his left handers at the top of the starting lineup. For example... Larnach in the two hole, Wallner at the 4 spot and Kepler at the 5 spot. Instead of spaced out with Larnach hitting 2, Wallner 5 and Kepler 8. If you space them out, you make it harder for them to place a lefty on the mound knowing that they must face 3 batters minimum and two right handers are going to follow. When Rocco stacks them up. He is just asking for a left hander to enter the game when Larnach rolls around and if the manager does it early in the game. Margot and Farmer will have to face the nasty right handed closer in the ninth when the clock is about to hit zero. Ninth inning is back against the wall... 5th, 6th or 7th inning there is still opportunity to score runs. I've thought about why he does that and there are only two things that make sense to me. Although, I don't agree with either possible explanation. 1. Those are the best hitters so up in the order they go. I think your best hitters should go at the top of the order because they will hit more often... but that advantage is negated if it means they are not available in the ninth because they were pinch hit for. 2. He is trying to draw a left hander into the game because he thinks the possible left hander isn't as good as the right handed arsenal or he's trying to burn up a left hander early in the series. Trying to get the other manager to utilize or burn certain pitchers should be a consideration and I'm hopeful that it's on our managers mind. However, I'm not sure that reason #2 is the reason because I've seen the Twins get painted into a late inning corner on the last day of a series when the next team they play will get the benefit of burning a bullpen arm. In the context of last nights game. Uceta has been great so far in this 34.1 innings. 46 K's with a 0.67 WHIP. Cleaving hasn't been as good but he has still been pretty good. I'm not sure the gain is significant in this context. The Rays also have Lovelady who throws from the left side who Cash can put in the game early today and drive Larnach, Wallner and Julien from the lineup. Leaving once again Farmer and Martin or even Helmen to face Uceta or Manuel Rodriquez in the ninth. Just to show that I'm not just one sided and willing to look at both sides. Let's say that Rocco saves his bullets for the ninth... like I think he should have... or should do. Let's say he stays with Martin and Helman and lets them bat in the 7th. Leaving him with 3 lefties available to pinch hit in the ninth against Uceta. For example let's say that 7th and 8th play out exactly like they did last night with Martin and Helman remaining in the game. The Twins would have entered the top of the 9th down 1 run with Santana, Farmer, Lee, Castro, Martin, Helmen. Santana would not be pinch hit for is my guess and Julien would pinch hit for Farmer just like what transpired last night. Wallner or Larnach could have hit for Lee with Castro moving to SS if necessary in the 10th... But at that point... there is no reason that Cash couldn't immediately counter with Cleavinger as soon as Wallner or Larnach was announced and we now have the dreaded lefty on lefty matchup. I get it... I see both sides. You make a sensible point. My solution is to not starve your young left handed hitters during the course of the season because there will come a time when you will need them to face left handed pitching and the timing for this may be extremely inconvenient... such as... the September stretch run... or worse yet... the actual playoffs. Larnach at best can become Joc Pederson in the future, Wallner at best can become Joc Pederson in the future. Kirilloff at best can become Joc Pederson in the future. Julien at best can become Joc Pederson in the future. Emmanuel Rodriquez at best can become Joc Pederson in the future, Walter Jenkins at best can become Joc Pederson. This is your development plan for a team that... Let's be honest can't afford to bring in big name free agents... therefore development is absolute key to future success. Turning the key to future success into finding the right low priced Margot every single year. Because Joc Pederson requires Grichuk or Margot to take a roster spot. Margot taking a spot is a spot not available to ERod or Jenkins or even Kiersay until injury opens the door but if the injury is to Margot... they will call up Helman instead because Joc Pederson requires Margot or Helman who faces more right handers than left handers because 75% of the pitching is Right handed and injuries are going to happen. Meanwhile the Orioles roster 7 left handed hitters on their current roster. Yankees 7, Cleveland 7, Detroit 7, Red Sox 6. Jays 6, D-Backs 6, Phillies 6, Cards 6 and Nats 6. 10 of 30 teams are stuffed with lefty hitters. Those 10 teams are 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 10 and 12, 16, 20, 20 and 23 in runs scored this year. There is a lot to consider but this extreme reaction to the left handed hitter facing a left handed batter did result in Vazquez pinch hitting with the game on the line. OK... it happened... tomorrow's a new day and I get it. The platoon split is real... but one last thing that I can't get out of mind. If we are so careful to avoid left handed hitters facing left handed pitchers... Why isn't the reverse true. We have a 28 man roster that has ONE... left handed pitcher in Thielbar. Hitters... Nope can't do it. Pitchers... Yep can do it. Anyway... I'm not arguing your point... It's solid. I agree that 162 game considerations need to be part of what a manager does.
- 115 replies
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- david festa
- carlos santana
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There is no gaurentee of performance no matter what move is made. However... I do want to point out that a sequence of left-right-left on the mound will paint us in the ninth inning corner every time. A sequence of right-left-right will also paint us in the ninth inning corner. Larnach has 17 total plate appearances vs left handed pitching. Those 17 appearances have been scattered over 14 games. An AB here and a AB there is scattered to the point of atrophy. Christian Vazquez is hitting .205 vs left handers. OPS of .568 but he does he stand in the right handed batters box. If you put Larnach in the game with 1 out in the 7th on the road. Just two players reaching base in the next 2.2 innings is going to bring him to the plate in the 9th. When the team is on the road... the team will bat in the 9th. You had 4 left handers on the bench and Vazquez.3 of the left handers were already in the game with Kepler injured. Cleavinger was coming. Vazquez was the only option. Again... I'm not saying that anything else was guaranteed success but all of these moves are made to increase odds. You plum run out of increased odds by the time the 9th inning rolls around. I wish that Rocco would save his bullets. Here's an interesting thought or question. If Vazquez would have singled and tied the game... forcing it to 10 innings. Assuming Kepler is hurt. Who plays LF in the 10th? Where does Vazquez play? My guess is Lewis goes to LF because he would have been the only option left and Vazquez would then be our 3B in the 10th.
- 115 replies
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- david festa
- carlos santana
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Yep We need to find guys that can field one position, they also need to hit and they can never get hurt and they can't cost a lot. 😉
- 115 replies
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- david festa
- carlos santana
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Twins (Festa) vs Rays (Springs): 9/3/24, 5:50pm
Riverbrian replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Archived Game Threads
I got my drivers license when I was 16. My Dad thought that teenagers were terrible drivers so he wouldn't let me drive the car at all. The only time I drove the car was practicing for the drivers test and the test itself. A year later when I was 17... Mom and Dad were out of town. Dad called me and said that I would have to take the car, pick my Aunt and take her to the hospital. She would be standing in her driveway waiting for me. I had told my Dad over and over again... There was going to come a time when you would need me to drive the car. And I reminded him of those conversations... I was telling him I told ya so as he gave me the combination for the safe that he kept the keys locked up in. At the last second... he told me to bring the keys to our neighbor Larry with the drinking problem instead. The moral to the story. Somebody was going to run over my poor Aunt standing in the drive way. -
Twins (Festa) vs Rays (Springs): 9/3/24, 5:50pm
Riverbrian replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Archived Game Threads
The High Numbers with our young players takes a little getting used to. Lee - 72 Martin - 82 Helman - 92 I see a pattern so the next person called up will obviously wear #102 -
Clutch Hitting is an interesting and hard thing to assess. It absolutely matters in each individual moment but it equalizes over the long haul of a season. So it's hard to say exactly how much of a difference maker it is. Comparing the Royals and the Twins - I'll add the D-Backs who are perhaps the most clutch team in MLB at this point of the season. Here are the numbers and rankings at this point of the season... followed by overall numbers and rankings. BA/RISP BA All PA's Royals .290 (#1) .254 (#7) Twins .243 (#21) .252 (#11) D-Backs .285 (#2) .263 (#2) SLG/RISP SLG ALL PA's Royals .465 (#4) .419 (#9) Twins .422 (#15) .425 (#6) D-Backs .485 (#1) .437 (#4) RBI/RISP RBI ALL PA's Royals 481 (#3) 622 (#11) Twins 446 (#10) 647 (#5) D-Backs 548 (#1) 714 (#1) You can't look at RBI's without the amount of opportunities PA/RISP Twins 1362 (#7) 5190 (#13) Royals 1275 (#19) 5145 (#19) D-Backs 1486 (#1) 5334 (#1) There is more complication to throw on this if anyone wants to dive deeper. On the surface with just a couple of down and dirty stats... to me it looks like the Twins perform pretty much the same RISP compared to how they perform in all situations. Yes there is a slight downtick but using rankings the Twins are doing well in comparison to the other 29 teams. On the other hand The Royals and D-Backs do seem to jump up a bit in clutch situations compared to how they do in all situations.
- 56 replies
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- royce lewis
- trevor larnach
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Players nobody saw coming. Every year a list like this can be compiled. You can also put together a yearly list called "Players nobody thought would fall apart".
- 16 replies
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- griffin jax
- willi castro
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Get in I don't care how.. Just get in. Once that happens. None of the numbers accumulated this season or any past season by any of the players on any of the teams will matter. Those numbers are all history. In front of all teams and all players. Potentially a 20 game stretch of new numbers to accumulate. Up will be down and down will be up. The season numbers will not repeat with the exception of a few cases.
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- carlos correa
- byron buxton
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I was in attendance. Opposite side of the field so I didn't get a good look at the catch into the netting. But I did get a good look at the Lewis homer. Felt Good... like breathing out after holding your breath for a long time. On the way to the game... I was listening to Falvey on the radio. I listened to how carefully he chose his words and meaning of what he was saying when talking about Royce working out at 2B. He clearly had kid gloves on for whatever reason. Certainly minimizing the workouts and certainly minimizing the odds of Royce playing 2B in the near future. It sounded like Royce had some concerns about it and it sounded like Falvey was trying to walk it back. I certainly don't know the details but I was thinking to myself... you've got to be kidding me. The President of Baseball Operations shouldn't have to dance around this as carefully as he was. Royce should play where the team needs him to play. End of story. If Royce doesn't like that... Oh Well. And wouldn't you know it... after all of that Falvey dancing in the pre-game. In comes Royce to play 2B after Santana pinch hit for Julien. He had two chances and made them both. Certainly not worth the drama of whatever Falvey was trying to calm. It was a close game. Julien was not going to face a left hander. Santana was not going to play 2B after he pinch hit for Julien. So Santana to 1B moving Miranda to 3B and Lewis to 2B. Rocco could have used Farmer or Helman at 2B which would have sat Santana or Miranda down. Could have used Martin at 2B and Helman to LF. However... It's the top of the 6th, no score and plenty of game to go. Lewis at 2B keeps our best possible lineup for 4 innings when offense was still needed. Lewis to 2nd was much to do about nothing. Play him there some more. Pinch hitting for Larnach and Julien in the 5th is why it was necessary.
- 56 replies
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- bailey ober
- brooks lee
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I certainly understand the excitement of the homer and I also understand the etiquette required in that situation. However... Yelling "Noonan" because Lewis homered will certainly be hard to explain to your buddy.
- 56 replies
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- bailey ober
- brooks lee
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Helman is right handed. Keirsay Jr is left handed. Let there be no doubt that the Twins are committed to the bit. Someone will have to play for Larnach when a lefty starts. I'm sure Buxton will knock Helman back down when he returns... Falvey said on the radio that Buck is ready to play some games. Helmen's stay may be short. Unless someone gets hurt in the meantime. Tuesday... The left handed Jeffrey Springs. will toe the rubber for the Rays. Helman might draw a start in that one unless Buck only needs one rehab game with the Saints. If he does start on Tuesday... I hope he goes two for two until the Rays bring that right hander in to end his career. Go Helman... I am pulling for you. Incidentally... the last time I said... actually... the only other time that I've said Go Helman was when I was cheering for mayonnaise.
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I'm thinking the Arb Raises may add significantly to the 95M. Jeffers, Ober, Ryan, Lewis, Duran, Jax and Castro are going to get good increases.
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Any team that claims would have to take the whole contract. There is no opportunity to pay a portion down. The Giants will probably try to move him in the off-season and then they can pay down some of the 12 million in order to get a deal done.
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Which would be around his career total. So... Good Gravy... Let's hope he doesn't go 0 for 19!!! 😄
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Resetting Expectations for Carlos Correa
Riverbrian replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The Twins clearly have injury issues. The Twins have clearly had injury issues for quite some time. I will even go as far to say without researching it. When it comes to the talent that we have lost due to injury... we may have had it worse than the majority of the other 29 baseball teams. However... I'll add as strongly as I can add. All major league teams have to deal with significant injuries. All teams must build their roster in anticipation of injuries. Failure to do so results in failure plain and simple. You have to look beyond your starting 9, beyond your 5 man rotation, beyond your 3 best bullpen arms when putting your team together. -
Not really arguing what you are saying. I do understand what you are saying. I have no way of proving what I think because Royce has been horrible at the health thing and he would ultimately be my proof if healthy... which he consistently hasn't been so all I got his what I think. I Just believe in my heart... that Royce when ON THE FIELD and in the lineup. Belongs in the conversation. But, I understand the importance of increasing his sample to a punctuation mark on my what I think.
- 39 replies
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- carlos correa
- byron buxton
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I'm not really arguing your point... perhaps just muddying it up a little. I'd say Royce Lewis belongs in that superstar. Health hasn't cooperated and in my opinion... health is the thing that has kept him out of that group... but I believe he belongs in that group. I'm not saying who I think is better amongst those three... I'm saying Royce belongs in that conversation. Health is why he isn't but if on the field... I got him in the conversation. You point out the health issue on the superstar level. Our biggest issue is that Willi Castro, Carlos Santana and Max Kepler lead the team in AB's. They have been average players to slightly above average players. The stats they are producing isn't lead the team in AB stats. In Cleveland and Kansas City... Ramirez and Witt lead the team in AB's. The Twins have done a decent job covering for our significant losses with a better lineup 1 through 10 as you point out. You'll notice the 1 through 10 (not 13) as I'm tossing Margot, Farmer and Vazquez overboard. 😉 As a team, the one offensive thing that Kansas City is doing better than Minnesota is hitting with runners in scoring position. Kansas City leads baseball with a .294 BA with runners in scoring position... 2nd in MLB with a .831 OPS. The Twins are hitting .245 with runners in scoring position good for 21st. 18th with .741 OPS. Kansas City is 30th in K's with runners in scoring position (Therefore Best). Cleveland is 28th. Twins are 13th which is better than last year but... we haven't been as clutch despite what I believe a deeper team.
- 39 replies
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- carlos correa
- byron buxton
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PA's 169 HR 10 BB 18 K 62 Adds up to 90 Dinosaur Bones has been hit by a pitch an astounding 12 times to take 102 of his 169 PA's away from BABIP consideration. 13 Singles 14 Doubles 1 Triple 67 PA's that can only be used for this stat is small enough to fluctuate significantly.
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I agree his BABIP is not sustainable so it is bound to come down. However... If his hard hit rate continues it just may not come down far enough to cause a crash. Sometimes high BABIP is simply hitting the ball hard. He's not blooping the ball and finding green... He's lining rockets into the gap and off the wall. Not to mention the ones that clear the wall at a pace of every 14 AB's. He's at the 488 PA Mark of his young career. Career BABIP is still high at .361 so he's holding his ground pretty good. Line Drive rate is trending up. I would like to see that K rate improved. If that goes up... he just might flash like Joey Gallo did as a youngster. . For now... I'm enjoying the tattoos that he is putting on the baseball. At the very least... For Pete's sake ... play him while he is getting lucky if that is what BABIP signifies. 😉
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Understood. The Bottom line is SF is hoping someone will claim him and take over the payment. It could happen but I'm thinking he will be Giant until the off-season at least and that point... the Giants will try to put him into a package and off load the money.

