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Everything posted by Riverbrian
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Good Post Doc. Although... In the making of last years product. No Vets were harmed in the production. 😁
- 41 replies
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- kyle farmer
- manuel margot
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In order for Rocco to utilize this system. The roster has to be set up accordingly and it was set up accordingly. It clearly isn't Rocco's system alone. The front office and Rocco are rowing on the same oar.
- 41 replies
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- kyle farmer
- manuel margot
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This paragraph is what makes it hard to sleep at night. 1. Development - Not developing your young left handed hitters just forces you to continue to find these right handed compliment Margot types year after year where they will continue to get exposed to right handed pitching due to injuries. I'd like to see them escape this pillory that they willing binded themselves to so we can simply concentrate on rostering the best players possible at all times. And... And... if you look into the Twins future... This platoon thing gets a little scary looking when you notice that our top prospects are LEFT HANDED. ERod is a lefty... Jenkins is a lefty and Brooks Lee while a switch hitter thus far has significantly better splits batting right handed. Do these 3 get the same treatment as Julien, Kirilloff, Wallner, Larnach and now Kepler. Obviously there is plenty of land to cross before reaching this bridge too far but lets say Lee and Jenkins show up... lets say... next year. Do they get to face lefties... if not will the Twins revert to finally giving Julien a chance. Do they trade excess left handers whose valued they have lowered because they have been branded platoon players on purpose. How do you add Lee and ERod to the roster with all these wannabe Joc Pederson on your roster? I know we all have different ideas on what they should do but we are talking about what the Twins will do. They are clearly committed to this strip mining thing... so what happens when Lee, Erod and Jenkins hit town with this left hander against left hander fear going on. 2. The part that I bolded of your quote is important. Just because a lefty hitter isn't as good against left handed pitchers... doesn't mean that the numbers are horrendous. Using Kepler for example. Using On Base Percentage for easy down and dirty math. Career OBP vs RH - .329 Career OBP vs LH - .293 Over 100 AB's... Kepler reaches base 4 less times. One single AB... Kepler goes from a .33% chance of reaching base to a 29% chance of reaching base. We are rostering lesser players to just improve your odds potentially very very little. And that potential little improvement of odds are gone... vanished... flipped in the other direction every single time Farmer or Margot types have to face right handers and they will face more right handers than left handers. Because there are more Right handers and injuries are going to force the necessity of facing them. Just play the odds against the 75%. If you want to play the odds.
- 41 replies
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- kyle farmer
- manuel margot
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Kepler would return to every day... If Farmer is the choice: RH/LH Multi Position DH - Kiriloff/Miranda C - Jeffers/Vazquez 1B - Miranda/Santana 2B - Julien/Castro 3B - Lewis SS - Correa LF - Larnach/Margot CF - Buxton RF - Kepler
- 58 replies
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- royce lewis
- manuel margot
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I'd love to see Lewis use his flexibility. It opens up a lot of doors. Rumors are that he would rather remain static and the Twins seem to agree.
- 58 replies
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- royce lewis
- manuel margot
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I would play Kepler every day and that's why I choose Margot... Although... It is important to point out... that I would have cut Kepler last June. 😉 Your model though... Absolutely renders Farmer next to useless.
- 58 replies
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- royce lewis
- manuel margot
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Agreed but it's hard to change when I'm sure they are playing the long game. They will not abandon this platoon model. As long as you need 3 short side bats to keep it going... you will need 3 short side replacements to jettison these short side guys off the roster. I just don't see that happening and switching mid-season is hard to do.
- 58 replies
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- royce lewis
- manuel margot
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As much as I complain about the plan to roster three short side guys and platoon heavy like they do. I don't believe it is wise to change plans in the middle of the season so... they should keep going on the planned path and hopefully try something else next year. With that said... If Miranda is to stay... A right hander for a right hander would be eye for an eye. The players with options are all left handed with the exception of course being... Miranda.
- 58 replies
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- royce lewis
- manuel margot
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If it's Julien Right/Left - Multi-Position DH - Kirilloff/Miranda C - Jeffers/Vazquez 1B - Miranda/Santana 2B - Castro/Farmer 3B - Lewis SS - Correa LF - Larnach/Castro CF - Buxton RF - Kepler/Margot You could also substitute Kirilloff or Larnach using this model. If it's Kirilloff... Julien takes Castro spot at 2B and Larnach slides into the DH and Castro is the every day LF. If it's Larnach... of course... Julien slides into the Castro spot at 2B and Castro is the every day LF. All bets are on the table.
- 58 replies
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- royce lewis
- manuel margot
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I can't argue with your logic... which is solid as usual. I just can't see them cutting Farmer and what's left of the 6 million. I actually don't see them cutting Margot either even though he gets my vote. I think it will end up being a player with options barring injury to anybody of course.
- 58 replies
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- royce lewis
- manuel margot
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I think we agree that the off-season was when the boat got pushed into the river and I think they were hell bent on keeping Julien, Kirilloff and Wallner away from left handed pitching and this was what ended up being the river current. They didn't have any money to spend so... strip mining the best parts off of players was probably the strategy all along. I have a couple of discrepancies from your off-season outline. Going into the off-season we had: The two catchers locked: Jeffers and Vazquez were going to get their playing time divided up however it got divided up. I believe that 5 players Lewis, Correa, Buxton, Polanco, Kepler were considered everyday guys. You have Julien listed as every day. He was not an every day guy. He was a platoon guy all last year and he has been a platoon guy this year. Julien was always going to require another player rostered to handle the short side. I didn't want to see that... but we are all powerless to stop this force. This leaves 6 non-everyday spots: IMO... Julien, Kirilloff, Wallner, Gordon and Castro were going to take 5 of those spots if they remained with the club. There was question mark on if the Twins would pick up the option for Farmer and they picked up the option on Nov. 2nd so Farmer took the last available spot at that point. There was also a question on Kepler's option but that was also picked up on Nov. 2nd as well. I think the moment they picked up Farmer's option... I think that was the first indication that strip mining through heavy platoon was the off-season plan. That's 13 guys. Gallo, Taylor and Solano were free agents that were not going to be retained. No room for any of them. On the Farm... the team would have Miranda, Larnach, Martin, Camargo and Severino on the 40 man. I believe the Twins wanted to continue shielding Julien, Kirilloff and Wallner from left handers so they would need three short siders to make that happen with only two in house. Castro and Farmer could hold down two of those spots but they were one short with Gordon being a left handed hitter. Here comes a Key Point: If they only have two short side platoon bats and that's all they had. Two of Julien, Kirilloff, Wallner, Gordon would have to play every day. One had to be replaced by short side right handed hitter. They announced early in the offseason that budget was being cut so in my opinion... they probably had little to no money to work with. No Budget and Farmer costing 6 million is a pretty good indication for the platooning. If they would have done nothing: Here's how it looked in my opinion: Every day guys(5+1) Lewis (3B), Correa(SS), Buxton(CF), Polanco(1B), Kepler (RF) +1 - Kirilloff, Julien, Wallner, Polanco share the DH work with Kirilloff, Julien and Wallner rotating starts against left handers. Left Handed Platoon (2) Julien(2B), Wallner (LF) Right handed Platoon (2) Farmer (2B), Castro (LF) No Role floater (1) Gordon Catchers (2) Jeffers, Vazquez 4 important dates to follow January 29, February 7, February 11 and February 26 January 29: They trade Polanco which frees up 6.5 million dollars to work with because DeSclafini would cost them 4 million of the 10.5 that Polanco would cost. No major league offense returned in the trade. Here is how it looks after the trade: Every Day Guys (5): Lewis(3B), Correa(SS), Buxton(CF), Kepler(RF), Gordon (DH) Left handed Platoon(3): Kirilloff(1B), Julien(2B), Wallner(LF), Right handed platoon(3): Farmer(1B) Castro(2B), Martin(LF) Catcher(2) Jeffers, Vazquez Someone from the 40 man will get Polanco's 26 man spot. I'll go with Martin since he can be that right handed short side guy and Miranda is still recovering from surgery. If they want to protect, Julien, Wallner and Kirilloff from lefties. Gordon would have to become an everyday guy instead of Castro because Castro has to handcuff to someone and Gordon makes no sense being left handed. They will need 5 every day guys and they are one short after the Polanco trade. I'm sure they didn't like the idea of Gordon being the every day guy but the roster is now set up this way so they look for a free agent that can be acquired under the 6.5 million saved in the Polanco trade. February 7: They Sign Carlos Santana for 5 Million So Lets send Miranda down to the minors to give Santana a 26 man spot and update: Every Day Guys(5+1): Lewis(3B), Correa(SS), Buxton(CF), Kepler(RF) Santana(1B) +1: Kirilloff, Julien and Wallner rotate through the DH position against Left Handers. Left Handed Platoon(2) Julien(2B), Wallner(LF) Right Handed Platoon(2) Farmer(2B), Castro(LF) No Role Floater(1) Gordon Catcher(2) Jeffers, Vazquez They still need that Short Side Right handed Bat to protect he young left handers. February 11 - Nick Gordon is traded to the Marlins - No offense returns in the trade - Let's Update Every Day Guys(5): Lewis(3B, Correa(SS), Buxton(CF), Kepler(RF), Santana(1B) Left Handed Platoon(3): Julien(2B), Kirilloff(DH), Wallner(LF) Right handed Platoon(3): Castro(2B), Farmer(DH), Martin(LF) Catchers(2) Jeffers, Vazquez They could have stopped here, the roster has the left/right handcuffs but I'd guess that they are not comfortable with Martin breaking camp with an opening day job. So they still have to find that right handed hitter. Outfield is the obvious spot. February 26: Twins trade for Margot There it is... A 26 man roster all balanced and pretty. With one problem. Those right handed bats would have to fill in for injuries should they occur and none of them have demonstrated the ability to hit right handed pitching.. So the roster is just fine providing nobody gets hurt or struggles. Every Day Guys(5): Lewis(3B), Correa(SS), Buxton(CF), Kepler(RF), Santana(1B) Left Handed Platoon(3): Julien(2B), Kiriloff(DH), Wallner(LF) Right Handed Platoon(3): Farmer(2B), Margot(DH), Castro(LF) Catchers(2): Jeffers, Vazquez Just a guess of course but I think I'm close to right. I think the key moment was when they picked up Farmer's option. I think that signified the Platoon heavy approach and the off-season was going to be how do they get there without money.
- 41 replies
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- kyle farmer
- manuel margot
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Barring an injury that clears up the situation. My vote is Margot. As long as Miranda is hitting like he has been... Keep him on the roster and in the lineup. I don't feel like I should have a vote though since I haven't been able to watch the team play for 31 days.
- 58 replies
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- royce lewis
- manuel margot
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Twins (López) @ Astros (Blanco); 5/31 @ 7:10pm CT
Riverbrian replied to Squirrel's topic in Archived Game Threads
Nope but I mailed him Yellow Paint. -
Here's another point that has to be at least worth consideration Current Team Stats 2024: Twins Team OPS Vs RHP .687 (Tied for 17th) Twins Team OPS Vs LHP .739 (9th) We better be better against left handers because the roster construction this year has overwhelmingly from game one been: 7 Right Handed Batters 4 Left handed batters 2 Switch Hitters That's 9 right handed hitters against lefties. 6 left handed hitters against righties. If the platoon split is real and I believe it is. We better be better against left handed pitchers because we have loaded up against them. The 9th against 25% of the pitching is nice and all but the problem is going to be that tied for 17th against 75% of the pitching. We got this backwards. We are chasing the wrong side of the equation with Margot, Santana and Farmer.
- 41 replies
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- kyle farmer
- manuel margot
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I always intend for my criticisms to be constructive. I don't expect perfection and I have to assume that there are other things that they do well and throwing the baby out with the bathwater isn't always the best approach but yeah... I think they are wrong on this. I've been married for 34 years, I've been faithful, loyal to my family, I've been involved in the lives of my two sons for 30 years since the day they were born and they have turned out to be fantastic young men. I make a decent living, the house is paid for, I don't have a gambling or drinking problem, I mow the lawn and I take out the garbage. However... I'm not very handy. I don't know what to do with a wrench because I'm not sure where the on-button is. My wife could have opted to trade me in for someone who can fix the plumbing but that someone may throw up on the living room carpet once a week and now she is looking again... when perfect just doesn't exist... unless she is lucky enough to get a guy like Ashbury. Ultimately... I will judge this front office on development because this team can't sustain success without it. I'm constructively saying that this level of platooning is hindering development and it guarantees that they will be constantly bargain basement shopping for guys who are beyond development. The bill for strip mining will come due.
- 41 replies
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- kyle farmer
- manuel margot
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This subject is obviously close to my heart. I've spent a lot of time thinking about it. 1. The platoon advantage is real. It's harder for hitters to hit against the same hand. 2. This is the first year that the front office set the roster with the intention of extreme platooning. The extreme platooning started during the season last year with the arrival of the young left-handed hitters.... Julien, Kirilloff and Wallner but the roster out of spring training wasn't set for this purpose... it became a necessity when they decided to shelter the youngsters. 3, It worked last year... I didn't like it but the Twins offense got some decent miles out of it and it was the performance of the young left handed hitters that helped us immensely last year. They covered for poor performance from or the absence of big guns like Correa, Buxton, Gallo and Lewis. Here are the problems with it: 1. While the platoon advantage is real. Julien may never have a reverse split because the platoon advantage is real but that doesn't mean that gap can't be closed through exposure. If Julien has an OPS of .800 against RHP and a .500 OPS against LHP... that's bad but if he can raise that OPS against left handers to .700 through exposure. You have an every day player that doesn't require a guy who hits .750 against left handers to handcuff to. 2. It created an inflated impression of what the kids were capable of. Julien had nice numbers last year... so did Wallner. Would the numbers have been so nice if they had to absorb left handed pitching. Probably not but the lack of exposure and therefore lack of development against left handed pitching is an interstate that has no exit ramp. In order to maintain this philosophy you have to staff your roster with the right handed hitting equivalent. This leads to point #3. 3. In order to set your opening day roster to this operational style. It requires you use up your extra position player inventory on players who hit left handers decently but don't hit right handers very well to fill the short side of the platoon. If you commit to this... it requires that you sign Luplow's... trade for Margots... Pay 6 million to Farmer... these guys are short side platoon guys because... they don't hit righties very well and they become your extra inventory of players and the guys they turn to when injuries or poor performance occur. 4. If the Margot's and Farmers of the world hit righties well... and also lit up lefties. They wouldn't be short side platoon. They would play every day. You have to purposely go out and sign guys who can't hit righties just to keep the platoon operational and after the 1 year deal is done... they got to find more the following year to keep playing this game. The only way to get out of this cycle is to find left handed hitters who can hit left handed pitching and you are not going to find those guys when you consistently don't let them be those guys. It's an endless cycle. 5. Perhaps the worst part on the development side is this... When Austin Martin is called up... He goes into a short side spot. How does Austin Martin develop at the major league level waiting for a left hander to come around. Bottom line... this extreme platooning makes it hard to develop players while they are being strip mined for parts. The Twins CAN'T survive without development. We will not spend the money necessary to become self sufficient without a properly functioning farm system. The team will constantly be signing low level free agents to fill out the roster. 6. Setting up your roster this way... Only works if everybody stays healthy. That never happens. It only works if the players perform at the level expected. Many times... they just don't. 7. By playing the platoon advantage to the extreme like the Twins do... they have actually turned it into a disadvantage because the real split they need to focus on is this. 75% of pitchers are right handers. They are rostering players to attack the 25% leaving the 75% vulnerable because your extra players who need to step in when injuries occur or poor performance occurs are not equipped to take on that 75%. If they want to play the platoon advantage. MORE LEFT HANDERS in the lineup. Attack the 75% and let them improve against the 25%. Don't get me started about pinch hitting for a guy in the 3rd inning like last year. OMG... that is simply not sensible. I've said this before... but... it's the number one issue with the Twins in my opinion... Even if it works just a little bit.
- 41 replies
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- kyle farmer
- manuel margot
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It could be potentially the most disruptive thing... Not that disruption is a bad thing in my opinion. It would be one less left hander on the team and Miranda doesn't pair well with Santana since Santana is strongest from the right side of the plate. I don't think this way but the Twins sure seem to. The least disruptive path... Is sending Miranda down or cutting Margot.
- 56 replies
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- third base
- infield
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I'll throw Ted a bone and say this: The ability to keep the pipeline producing does indeed soften the blow of losing Steer and CES. If you keep producing talented prospects it allows you to be more comfortable trading prospects. However... I will quickly take that bone away by saying that the club will always be better off if they have Steer, CES and Keaschall in the same organization.
- 33 replies
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- luke keaschall
- spencer steer
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I certainly wasn't a Captain of the offseason Farmer fan club. I was scared off by the membership dues. With that said... Farmer by himself was not a concern for me. I liked him on the team last year. I was a Private First Class in the Farmer getting a 2024 roster spot makes sense club. Now... but to be clear. Not having a problem with Farmer individually doesn't mean I'm not a 4 Star General in the Farmer plus Santana plus Margot is a ****ing problem club. The money spent on Farmer matters when the club is cutting payroll... the money only doesn't matter if you are just going to spend it on Tim Anderson as you use for an example. The money spent on Polanco matters when you are cutting budget. The money doesn't matter if you are just going to spend the Polanco money on DeSclafini, Santana and Margot. What's that old saying. A million here and a million there and pretty soon you are talking about real money. Those three together add up to real money and those three together loosen those budget constraints above the Tim Anderson level. Your talk of the Farmer Floor does scare me a little. Especially when you combine the Farmer floor with your last sentence. When you type "outside of Miranda". It reads like Miranda is the exception and that you can't count on the kids. When I type Miranda... he would be an example of why you don't settle for the Farmer floor. Those are pretty dramatic differences in sentiment and the opposite point of view towards young talent. Even if Miranda is an exception... that exception is here and we will have to send him down If we remain healthy when Lewis is called up because the Farmer floor is just fine. We could keep Miranda up and send Julien down to make some room for Lewis but that makes the Farmer floor full time at 2B and that creates another problem. Farmer doesn't handcuff to Castro or Santana... those two hit left handers best. After you look up and down the roster you come to the realization that Farmer only handcuffs to Julien. That ties Farmer to Julien... So... if Julien is sent down... Farmer is either the guy entirely or not the guy at all as Castro becomes the full time 2B with Julien out. Farmer isn't the savior to a Julien injury or demotion... he becomes pointless without Julien. Jeffers is the DH handcuff against lefties. Unless Farmer plays OF as you suggest... then you can handcuff him to Larnach or Kepler but... isn't that Margot's job? Farmer only ties to Julien. As I bring all this crap up... it's only temporary because injuries will change everything eventually and that's why they most likely won't cut Farmer, Margot or Santana to make room for Lewis. So Miranda... just might be sent down. Farmer has historically not hit RH pitching. 32 AB's a month is not going to rapidly repair the optics of his numbers. In the meantime... Much like the farmers I hear complaining every morning drinking coffee at the Nordhem Cafe in Karlstad... there will be continuous Farmer complaints on TD.
- 47 replies
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- kyle farmer
- willi castro
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Royals (Lynch IV) vs Twins (Paddack): 5/30/24, 12:10pm
Riverbrian replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Archived Game Threads
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Royals (Lynch IV) vs Twins (Paddack): 5/30/24, 12:10pm
Riverbrian replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Archived Game Threads
I just looked up the recipe for that and recipe clearly includes Vodka. So... now I have to explain to people that I had to buy Vodka in order to make Gin. I'm not prepared for the follow up question that will surely be... Why didn't you just buy Gin? -
Still can't watch the Twins - I can't let this go.
Riverbrian replied to Riverbrian's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
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Royals (Lynch IV) vs Twins (Paddack): 5/30/24, 12:10pm
Riverbrian replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Archived Game Threads
I have been reduced to waiting for a highlight to appear on MLB.com one inning later... just to watch a 15 second commercial before a 20 second clip. It feels like I'm drinking windshield wiper fluid because of prohibition.

