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Twins GFP

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Everything posted by Twins GFP

  1. Twins GFP
    You are correct, I misspoke. Thanks for the correction.
  2. Twins GFP
    Ace is so subjective. Does he have #2 starter potential? Yes. That is why the Twins gambled on him in the first place. Think big picture folks: He regains his pre surgery form, the Twins extend him for a year or two at a reasonable cost. He could be a mainstay in the rotation for a while. He dominates and the Twins have a young, pitcher in the fold they can try to keep or move for other capital. This is the type of lottery ticket a team like the Twins will always chase.
  3. Twins GFP
    It is hard to call it a conundrum when the entirety of the the OF consists of unproven youth, AAAA players, a lower end starting OF (Kepler) and Mr. Injury himself. Hopefully one of the younger guys will take a huge step this year to spread out the pack.
  4. Twins GFP
    I am not saying that he holds off signing an extension until the complete end of arbitration. But signing an extension now would be considerably lower than it would be if he repeats last year and looks to extend next offseason.
  5. Twins GFP
    ROY candidates typically come from having the opportunity to play. If SWR or Varland are in the rotation coming out of camp it would be somewhat surprising. Wallner is probably lower on the depth chart than we think. The other two are not realistic at this point (Lewis with his injury). Injuries or an organizational direction change will be needed for the Twins to have a ROY candidate...
  6. Twins GFP
    Sorry Mike, but I disagree: The Twins have actually had a pretty good lineage of Catchers going back to Butch Wynegar (people forget how good he was) Harper Ortiz Steinbach Blanco Pierzynski Mauer Redmond Suzuki All above average catchers (or extremely above average). Heck, even Laudner was an all-star one year. Jeffers has shown the ability to be above average, the question is can he regain that form, even if only partially? I am not as down on our catching as most. In today's world, Catchers are like Kickers in the NFL. They are generally afterthoughts. You pay if you have a rock-star, otherwise you find the right guys that can handle it or fit your team mold.
  7. Twins GFP
    1) The obvious 2) Fix the plate approach he took last year due to injury: don't try to hit everything out of the park, get the average back up. For whatever reason, some people are just not physically designed to hold up to the rigors of a full season. Our manager is a great example. I don't think you can coddle him or "protect" him, because nothing will change. You just play him as much as possible and keep your fingers crossed. Byron Buxton will ultimately retire as another, possibly the greatest, in an unfortunate Twins legacy of "what if": Kirby Puckett (how many more years if not the HBP) Jason Kubel (knee) Corey Koskie (concussion) Justin Morneau (concussion) Francisco Liriano (TJ) Joe Mauer (concussion) Byron Buxton
  8. Twins GFP
    How many fans were trampled in effort to get their favorite player?
  9. Twins GFP
    Your contract offer seems reasonable. But if I am Joe Ryan, I am not sure I take that offer this year. If next year is similar to last year, (not unreasonable), that offer could rise dramatically. How much does he want to bet on himself?
  10. Twins GFP
    Sounds right NIck, I think this contract offer would get it done. I also think it is probably 10% higher than anything he would be offered (though it may be what it takes to get him to come here). I think the opt outs would be necessary, as the Twins would probably be promising him a a better complimentary cast. If it doesn't happen, he could leave. We all would need to understand the last 3 years we would be overpaying for his skills, but the 10 years is less scary with his age than some of the others. I also agree the bigger picture needs to be looked at: Ownership and the FO would need to use this contract as a stepping stone, not an excuse. There would need to be some willingness to push the Twins self-imposed salary cap when needed. Not sure if I see that happening over the long haul.
  11. Twins GFP
    Again, we are back to what the Twins are truly expecting to accomplish this year. If they are in win-now mode, Abreu makes sense on a two year. high AAV deal. He can rotate in and out of the DH/1B slot with Arraez. The downside is that Arraez would need to play other positions for 30ish games over the year. Not sure it f the Twins want to do that. It would also help if the Twins could bring in another strong defender for the 3B/SS slot to help take some of the heat off of Abreau when he is in the field. Outside of positional defense, he fits almost every hole the Twins are looking to fill. If this is a reload year (not rebuild, we have too many pieces), then makes no sense at all.
  12. Twins GFP
    Short answer: No Still too many variables left to be answered: Will he regress at the plate? Can he actually play 3B? If they thought he could play 3B, why didn't give him more innings there last year? I am not saying he won't, but putting all your eggs in one basket right now is foolish. This topic needs to be revisited in February.
  13. Twins GFP
    1) Long term contracts for players on the wrong side of 30 rarely do not work out for the entirety of the contract. You typically are vastly overpaying for the last third of the deal. Few teams can truly afford to do this and carry dead salary, the Twins are not one of them. 2) Pitchers and health are such a crapshoot. The general risk is high. Without having any statistics in front of me, I would bet that the longer contracts have an insanely high risk of time lost due to injury, not including time getting back to full strength. 3) The Twins have avoided anything longer than 4 years since the dawn of time. Most of your "dial movers" will get contracts exceeding that, which puts the Twins out of the running. High AAV on shorter deals will only get you so far. 4) If you truly believe that this offseason will be lost if they do not sign Rodon, prepare to feel the pain. He will get overpaid by somebody, and in a few years we will look back and be glad we didn't sign him.
  14. Twins GFP
    Not as low as Magadan, but I get your point. Grace is probably closer than Olerud. Funny how BR has Tony Gwynn in his list of comps...
  15. Twins GFP
    I hate to be the one to say this, but I don't see the Twins making any major moves with their SP. The argument can be made that they have strong talent coming back to the rotation from injury. They have a handful of guys that are ready to go at the MLB level. There are only a handful of SP in the FA market that would truly move the needle, they will either be overpaid (Rodon), or will take "reasonable" salaries to true contenders. Anybody they could reasonably trade for will either cost half of the AAA team, or would bring less to the table then a guy like Sonny Gray (who is good, but comes with risk or baggage). I think it is more reasonable to assume they make runs at a few of the bigger RP names out there
  16. Twins GFP
    Arraez is quickly becoming one of the most dependable bats in the majors. A throwback, similar to a few other former 1B: John Olerud and Mark Grace. He has the potential to stay a solid hitter for many years. As with most things, there is a caveat: Will he be able to stay healthy. If the Twins were smart, they would tell Arraez they are not going to move him around, keep him at 1B, and let him physically prepare accordingly. Knowing how his body will be used every day can significantly help him prepare. I would extend him, but I wouldn't break the bank. Both sides need to recognize the risk involved. 5y/$50m sounds about right. Throw in some achievable bonuses if necessary ($500k for each batting title, etc.).
  17. Twins GFP
    Everything you say here is true. But all of the advanced metrics also support the "third time through the lineup" concerns with Gray as well. The reality is that it is probably a combination of both. Bottom line, there is no reason to expect Gray will ever be an innings eater.
  18. Twins GFP
    Correct me if I am wrong, but weren't advanced metrics kind to Arraez at 1B? We know Polanco was playing injured most of the year, and is a bounce back candidate Farmer (for the moment) appears to be solid at SS. Miranda at 3B is a HUGE question mark. Not seeing much of a change here this year unless Correa comes back.
  19. Twins GFP
    Maeda should really be the driving force here on the decision, probably 80% his call. I believe that he and Twins have already have decided what the are going to do, with the only hiccup being a setback in his rehab. Personally I think he will be a SP with probably a somewhat stricter pitch count his first 7-10 times through the rotation. He isn't a young kid, he knows his body and what it can/can't do. He is too important to be put in the BP, especially if they are trying to stretch him out.
  20. Twins GFP
    Another player that does nothing to move the needle: Does not provide superior offense over anybody currently in place. An outfielder that doesn't play CF Health is a question Would require a higher salary based off his name and history Why is he considered an option?
  21. Twins GFP
    Elvis Andrus made $15M last year... a pretty big leap considering they just did a salary dump with Urshela. Andrus put up numbers pretty similar to Farmer last year too... I am not trying to fight, just want to be realistic here.
  22. Twins GFP
    Just out of curiosity, let's assume the Twins do not sign any of the big 4 SS (a reasonable expectation even if they make concerted efforts). What do you suggest they do?
  23. Twins GFP
    All due respect, somebody really needs to write an article debunking this usage thing. He was used this way for the three years prior to coming to the Twins, he was extremely successful and protected in his current role. HIs next team is going to use him the same way. Why change it? That being said, I would look to extend him, something in the 2y/$28m range with a 1y/$15 team option that kicks in based starts made over that time.
  24. Twins GFP
    I am not down, just cautious. He has a strong offensive track record, but this is not Joe Mauer we are talking about here. He still has a lot to prove on both offense and defense.
  25. Twins GFP
    I don't think they are going to pass on the SS, I think that they will not come here regardless. I think last year was an anomaly. The rare occasion where a big name player bets on himself for one year for something bigger (not too different from Judge) All things being equal, a guy like Correa will sign with a big market team because of the outside-of-baseball opportunities. I think to get one of the top four SS, they will need to wildly overpay. Imagine the chaos around here if the Twins signed Correa for 10y/$375m.... Even worse, if they signed Swanson for 6y/$180.
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