Cody Pirkl

The Twins have some concerns in the starting rotation, but it’s nowhere near as dire as the situation they’ve found themselves in with the bullpen. Is it time to roll the dice and move their young swingman back into a relief role? Image courtesy of © Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports The Twins rightfully gave Louie Varland another chance to start this year, after an uneven season in 2023. Though he’s struggled mightily at times, Varland has been pitching much better lately, and is currently in St. Paul as their next man up, should another starter struggle or get injured. Unfortunately, the current rotation issues are hypothetical, whereas the current bullpen concerns are very real. It may be time for the Twins to sacrifice their rotation depth to keep the bullpen afloat, despite the obvious risks of that approach. It’s no secret that the Twins bullpen is coming apart at the seams. Just this week, they’ve turned two almost-certain wins into losses. First, Jorge Alcalá entered a 4-0 game against Texas on Sunday in the 7th inning and blew the lead in impressively little time. Then, Steven Okert entered a 5-3 game Tuesday against San Diego in the 8th inning and allowed four earned runs while recording one out. These losses--and the specter of more similar ones--give the Twins every reason to throw caution to the wind regarding future rotation depth and give Varland a chance to save the bullpen. The top issue with the Twins bullpen right now is obvious: They don’t have enough trustworthy options. The Twins chose to add to the pen only on the fringes this offseason, as they often do. It left them vulnerable to the situation they’ve currently found themselves in. High-end options with injury risks (like Brock Stewart) have had the worst-case scenario play out. Jhoan Durán has also taken a step back, after being the backbone of the bullpen for the last few seasons. Justin Topa, acquired for Jorge Polanco, likely will not throw a single pitch for the Twins this year. Caleb Thielbar has finally looked his age for much of the season, while several of the Twins' offseason acquisitions, such as Okert and Jay Jackson, turned out to do more harm to this roster than good. Rocco Baldelli manages in a minefield every night when he calls down to the bullpen. Varland would be an immediate facelift for this group. It’s also worth pondering the worst-case scenario should the Twins shift Varland into the bullpen and another injury occur in the starting rotation. Taking Varland out of the mix for the rotation would likely leave Randy Dobnak and Caleb Boushley as the next in line, should the need arise. While those are unexciting options, so is the starter version of Varland’. Having seen his struggles, the Twins will surely handle Varland in the rotation like they’d handle Dobnak or Boushley. It’s unlikely to see any of these names facing a lineup more than twice through. If any of these names are in a rotation spot, is the difference all that significant, when they’ll be handled so carefully and Varland has shown so little upside as a starter? The Twins wouldn’t ask for much more than filling a handful of innings out of that rotation spot. Rather than put Varland in such a low-wattage role, why not use him in a way that can make a much more significant impact on their chances of winning? The Twins were stingy in the offseason and, despite several green and yellow flags turning bright red, doubled down on their lack of impact additions at the trade deadline. The same patience that paid off for them so handsomely at the 2023 trade deadline has them headed for disaster in 2024. They’re wary to pull the last lever they have at their disposal, and they should be. Their pitching depth is dangerously low, but more so on the bullpen side. Rather than saving Varland for a “what if” scenario in the rotation, they need to recognize the situation that’s actively playing out now. The Twins need to stop the bleeding in the bullpen, and Louie Varland is the best (and maybe only) way to do it. Will we see them make the move soon? View full article

The Twins brought in Manny Margot to platoon and fill in at center field this spring. The cost wasn’t high, but has the juice been worth the gentle squeeze? Image courtesy of John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports The Twins decided to trade for Manuel Margot this spring, as Michael A. Taylor’s free-agency staredown dragged on. Instead of signing a platoon outfielder, the Twins swapped crowded-out assets with the Dodgers, sending Noah Miller to get Margot and minor-league infielder Rayne Doncon. Los Angeles also covered part of Margot’s salary. With such a low acquisition cost, has Margot been worth it? The Twins' main priority in adding Margot was obtaining a right-handed bat to patrol the outfield. Ideally, this hitter would also be able to fill in at center field, which is likely why the Twins looked at a Margot-type player, instead of a traditional bat-first corner outfield type. Margot has adequately filled the offensive need. He typically leads off against left-handed pitchers and has posted a .728 OPS in those matchups, about 6% above the league average. It’s nothing to write home about, but it is much better than taking any given left-handed hitter and putting them in those matchups. By definition, he's above replacement-level. Defensively, the Twins have been very fortunate with Byron Buxton’s health. It was apparent immediately that Margot was not an option to play frequently in center, once the Twins saw him in the outfield. He’s still played there occasionally, and is worth -1 Outs Above Average there. Unfortunately, Margot has been pretty brutal everywhere, with a -1 mark in right field and a -3 mark in left. By Outs Above Average, he's been worse than Matt Wallner, whose reputation as a hulking, slow defensive player is at least outweighed by his offensive ceiling. Worth noting in the acquisition cost is that the trade to acquire Margot has gone the Twins' way, regardless of his performance. Noah Miller looks like a tremendous defender at shortstop, but whether he can hit in MLB is still a concern. His .668 OPS in High-A this season is his best since his debut professional season, but it's still deeply unimpressive. Meanwhile, Doncon has been very successful since his arrival. An .838 OPS earned him a promotion to High-A, where his bat is still roughly 15% above league average. It’s possible the Twins would trade Miller for Doncon straight up today, if they magically had the chance to do it again. Has Margot been worth it himself, though? It depends on how you look at it. The actual cost was meager. The opportunity cost is the real question. As a competing team, the Twins are likely looking to win trades on the MLB side, rather than in the exchange of low minor-league players. Looking just at Margot, it’s hard to call it a success. His performance against left-handed pitching has met the bare minimum threshold of being positive, but it’s easy to argue that the defense has greatly outweighed his bat. A different player (such as Tommy Pham, with his .865 OPS against lefties) would have certainly fit the poor fielding corner outfield role much better. With Margot so thinly holding onto an above-average line against lefties, one could argue that an internal option could have filled that role just as well. The Twins' record likely doesn’t look much different without Margot. He’s certainly had a handful of big moments, but these haven’t entirely outweighed the negatives, as evidenced by his -0.1 Wins Above Replacement, according to Fangraphs. Margot is also well in the negatives for Win Probability Added, which is to be expected considering his being approximately 0 for 100 pinch-hitting. Under different financial circumstances, the Twins likely would have aimed higher in the offseason, or even added a replacement for Margot at the trade deadline. In this version of reality, though, the Twins bet on a bounceback from Margot this spring, and it’s not been particularly impactful, one way or the other. Was Margot a worthwhile addition to the Twins? Should they have added a Tommy Pham or rolled with someone like Michael Helman internally? Does the Doncon return make up for Margot’s production? Let us know below! View full article

The Twins followed up a low-wattage trade deadline with news that Brock Stewart is returning to the IL. With only internal options remaining to help the bullpen down the stretch, who could elevate their game to another level to make up the gap? Image courtesy of Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports The Twins bullpen hasn’t been the strength we hoped it would be coming into the season, with some underperformance mixed with injuries. Now that the trade deadline has passed, they’re left with what they have. While filling a Brock Stewart-sized hole late in games may be impossible, several internal options could improve their game and help the Twins to the finish line. Caleb Thielbar Thielbar looked like he was on the edge of losing his roster spot at one point this season, as even in a bullpen devoid of left-handed options, he’s looked like age has caught up to him at times. For a roster desperate for a guy to use in left-handed matchups, at the very least, Thielbar stepping up would be huge. Hopefully, his recent stretch will be a sign of things to come. It may be hard to regain trust against the 37-year-old southpaw fully, but Thielbar wasn’t just a lefty specialist at his best. If he can continue to reign in his numbers against right-handed hitters, even just a bit, the Twins bullpen would be in a much better place. Cole Sands Sands has taken a significant step forward in 2024 and looks like a core piece of the bullpen for the next few years. He’s posted career bests in strikeout, walk, and home run rates, which is pretty much all you need to do to succeed as a pitcher. With such a great season already, how can Sands elevate the Twins bullpen even further? For Sands, it has less to do with improving his performance and more with how he’s used. While he’s filled a wide range of roles this season, we may see more of him in high leverage moving forward. He should slot in behind Alcala, Jax, and Duran and will find himself pitching some big innings down the stretch. If he can continue to build on the breakout season he’s already posted, the Twins can still have the dominant back end of the bullpen we envisioned heading into the season. Justin Topa It’s easy to forget about Justin Topa, who was part of the Jorge Polanco trade, which has been a disaster for both teams involved. At one point, it appeared Topa would join Anthony DeSclefani as pieces of the Polanco return who wouldn’t play in 2024. After rehabbing his problematic knee, Topa is now approaching his Twins debut. Topa is not a household name due to his limited action in the MLB, but he had a dominant 2023 with the Mariners. In 69 innings, he posted a 2.61 ERA as one of the better relievers in Seattle’s bullpen. At his best, he avoids walks and uses a heavy sinker to avoid hard contact, and it is a legitimate setup option if he is healthy. He’s shown he can be a dominant option late in games even though he lacks the gaudy strikeout numbers of someone like Brock Stewart, and he may be able to help fill his absence. It’s hard to count on getting much from Brock Stewart down the stretch this season, and the Twins have to make do with the roster they already have. Are these three the best options to help fill the void? Could we see Chris Paddack or Louie Varland make the switch? Is there another arm that could help hold the bullpen together? Let us know below! View full article

With the Twins likely to look for more pitching depth at this year’s trade deadline, the defending world champs seem like a great match. What arms could the Texas Rangers have to offer, in whom the Twins may be interested? Image courtesy of © Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports The Twins should certainly beef up their bullpen, and adding an impact starting pitcher could also be possible under the right circumstances. The Texas Rangers have options for either need, and they do appear to be in sell mode. Who would be the most impactful arms the teams could swap? David Robertson Robertson continues to resist any ill effects of aging, as he’s posting an ERA right around 3.00 at 39 years old. His strikeout rate is his best since 2017. His walk rate is his best since 2015. He’s limiting homers at his best rate since 2013. Robertson is having a remarkable season, and any team acquiring him would get a decorated, high-leverage option for the stretch run. Of course, Robertson’s performance will result in an inflated price tag, even with the right-hander set to become a free agent this offseason. It’s hard to say what types of players the Rangers would be looking for in return. They themselves notably acquired closer Aroldis Chapman at last year’s deadline for Cole Ragans, who is now one of the best starting pitchers in the AL Central. Does it cost the Twins one of their emerging arms dominating Double-A, such as Andrew Morris or Cory Lewis? It will likely be a bidding war for Robertson’s services, and the Twins may have to decide how much they’re willing to give up for an impact addition to the bullpen. Kirby Yates Yates is a decorated veteran in his own right, though most of his success before 2024 came as far back as 2019 with the Padres. Now 37 years old, Yates is striking out nearly 36% of opposing hitters and has yet to allow a homer, through 31 innings. His 0.86 ERA may not be sustainable, but all of his peripherals tell the story of a dominant reliever who can round out a shutdown bullpen. Yates likely won’t come cheaply, per se, but his struggles before this season should make him more affordable than Robertson. With Yates similarly set to become a free agent, perhaps this is a situation where the Twins can dangle a controllable bat with no path to MLB, such as Yunior Severino. Yates would be a trustworthy setup-caliber reliever in the same tier as Jorge Alcalá, if not slightly ahead of him in the pecking order. Nathan Eovaldi Eovaldi’s name hasn’t been directly stated as a possibility to be traded. Still, with the Rangers set to deal so many other pitchers, including starters such as Andrew Heaney, it’s fair to suspect they’d be willing to listen. Eovaldi continues to strike out about a batter per inning, with limited walks and homers. Even at age 34, his fastball sits just under 96 mph. In addition to potentially shoring up the regular-season rotation, Eovaldi has been a versatile force during the postseason. In almost 80 innings pitched, Eovaldi holds a 3.05 career ERA in the playoffs. He’s developed a reputation as a big game pitcher in October, pitching out of the rotation and the bullpen en route to two World Series rings. The question with Eovaldi will be the price. His contract includes a vesting player option if he throws a combined 300 innings between 2023 and 2024. After throwing 144 innings last season and 87 so far in 2024, reaching that mark is still possible. The uncertainty of 2025 for Eovaldi makes pricing a trade almost impossible, without context that the Twins will undoubtedly do some research on. Does Eovaldi want to test the market again, even if his $20-million player option kicks in? Does Twins ownership want to risk adding that much payroll in 2025 to a team they may be looking to shed even more from? Max Scherzer Set to be arguably the best rental pitcher on the market, Scherzer will likely be headed to a new team for the second trade deadline in a row, despite plenty of question marks in his age-39 season. Scherzer began the season on the IL with a nerve issue in his shoulder and neck, and hasn’t looked like the first-ballot Hall of Famer he is in his brief time back. A 92.6-mph average on the fastball is the lowest mark of his career, as is his 17.7% strikeout rate. Scherzer appears to be in the twilight of his career, but it’s hard to say a contender has no space for him. The Mets are still paying most of Scherzer’s contract, and an acquiring team would only be on the hook for a prorated share of $12.5 million. The bidding could explode if he shows a glimpse of his dominant self in the next few starts. It’s fair to wonder how much the Twins should give up for a pitcher who carries so much injury and performance risk, but it’s easy to argue that they should be involved in the bidding process. Are there any other Texas Rangers the Twins should have an eye on as the team begins to lean toward selling? What do you think of Heaney or Michael Lorenzen as alternatives to the above? Are all of these older arms too much of an injury risk? Let us know below! View full article

Additions to the lineup from St. Paul arguably saved the Twins in 2023. Even as the lineup rounds into form much earlier than last year, could we see the same in 2024? Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports The Twins have come a long way from the anemic offense they showed to begin the 2024 season. Still, the lineup isn’t perfect, and they could use an addition or two to bring them back to the elite level we saw them reach at the end of 2023. Three names who could be impact additions from St. Paul in the second half stand out. Matt Wallner We saw Wallner burst onto the scene and carry the lineup at times in 2023. As frustrating as it is to watch him at his worst, at its best, his bat is extremely valuable--as evidenced by the .877 OPS he posted in his rookie season. After a rough start to his 2024 season, he appears to have made some mechanical adjustments in St. Paul, and he’s kicking the door in to get another shot. For the first time in what feels like years, the Twins lineup has too many right-handed bats. With only four left-handed hitters on the active roster, the Twins could sure use some version of the Wallner they saw in 2023. It may take an injury or the Twins parting ways with a veteran role player, but if he keeps up his recent pace, Wallner can’t stay in St. Paul much longer. Brooks Lee By now, the refrain is familiar: If Lee hadn't had a back injury and been unavailable throughout April and May, the team's infield future would already have arrived. There’s no time like the present, as the Saints have been starting the switch-hitter at second base recently; the versatile Willi Castro has been stopping the gap there for the parent club since Edouard Julien's demotion. Lee has been on fire, and looks the part of a steady everyday player for years to come, especially with the signs he’s shown from the right side of the plate. His track record as a solid shortstop should make him a great defender at second, and could open up Castro to move elsewhere as needed. The great thing about having Castro on the roster is that an injury just about anywhere would open up playing time for a top prospect like Lee. Whether an infielder or outfielder, Castro can move off the position and find everyday playing time elsewhere for Lee to make his debut. We're likely see the start of what should be a great Twins career in the second half. Jaír Camargo In terms of health, the Twins have had incredible luck at the catcher position for the last season and a half. (That, or their unique dedication to alternating and time-sharing at the position has helped both Ryan Jeffers and Christian Vázquez avoid injuries.) It’s good news for them, but bad news for Camargo, whom the Twins officially believe in to some degree; they added him to the 40-man roster this winter. Their good health may continue, but Camargo will be a massive recipient of playing time should one of the catchers need some time off. The Twins should continue to split the time behind the plate 50/50, but Camargo has the tools to make an impact for however long he’s afforded an MLB roster spot. With solid defense and 20-homer power, Camargo may not be a top prospect, but he’s certainly capable of contributing as a role player. The only thing keeping him in St. Paul is the big-league crew's continued good fortune regarding health behind the plate at the MLB level. The Twins have plenty of bats in St. Paul, which we may see in the second half, but these three appear to be the closest to being inserted into the MLB lineup. Are there any other names you’re looking for down the stretch this season? Let us know below. View full article

As the Twins' lineup has rounded into form, the pitching staff has struggled. The trade deadline is one way to improve, but the Twins have some arms approaching in the minors. Who may be available to help? Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports The Twins have no shortage of bats waiting for their chance in the minor leagues, but right now, they may need more pitching help. We could see three pitchers make a significant difference on the MLB roster this season, even before the All-Star break. David Festa Festa has been not only the most effective pitcher in St. Paul, but also one of the most dominant starters in Triple-A. After shoring up some previous problems with walk rate, the 6-foot-6 righthander has the raw stuff to be a weapon at the big-league level. He got his feet wet with the Saints last year, making three starts, and holds a 3.77 ERA in 14 starts this season. His ERA has been inflated by the long ball so far in 2024, but this is an outlier in the context of his career. Festa’s dominant 35.1% strikeout rate makes one wonder whether he can be an immediate contributor to the MLB rotation, and he may be next up as Chris Paddack needs a breather. (The Twins placed Paddack on the injured list with arm fatigue Tuesday afternoon.) If the Twins hold off on promoting Festa, we could still see him down the stretch as a bullpen piece, where it’s hard to imagine him being anything less than dominant. Louie Varland After a brutal start to his season in the MLB rotation, Varland has spent much of his season in St. Paul. Varland hadn’t been particularly dominant against Triple-A pitching, and his ERA now sits at 7.33. Varland has looked good in his two appearances with the Twins recently, though, and perhaps he’s still No. 1 for call-up options. It would be hard to blame anyone for doubting Varland’s future in the MLB rotation. His issues with loud contact have carried over to the Triple-A level, and he still lacks a traditional slider or sweeper to neutralize same-handed hitters. Instead, Varland’s potential contributions may come in the bullpen. We saw him at his most effective in that role last season, and the Twins bullpen could use another arm given the struggles of Caleb Thielbar and Jhoan Durán. There is also still no timetable for Brock Stewart. We’ve seen what Varland can do in short stints, and if the Twins make that decision sooner rather than later, they may save themselves a prospect at the trade deadline. Matt Canterino While he's not actively pitching in the minor leagues at the moment, Canterino may have the best stuff among any arm in the Twins system. A shoulder injury knocked him on the IL to start the season, but Canterino is back to throwing bullpens, and we may be seeing him on a rehab assignment soon. Canterino owns an ERA well under 2.00 across the minor leagues in his career, while striking out over a third of the hitters he’s faced. Health has always been the question, and as he enters his late 20s, it’s probably time to stop testing whether he can hold up to a starting pitcher’s workload. With a high-90s fastball to pair with a devastating changeup/slider combination, it’s hard to envision Canterino struggling in a relief role. While a smaller workload may not keep him healthy, it’s probably time for the Twins to try something different. He’s already on the 40-man roster, and the clock is ticking. If Canterino can make a few appearances for St. Paul to show he’s healthy, he has the stuff to be fast-tracked to Target Field, where he should be able to dominate MLB hitters immediately. Much of the Twins' starting pitching depth lies at Double-A Wichita. Could they be so aggressive as to promote someone like Zebby Matthews, who has dominated the entire season? Are there any other arms in the minor leagues that could be a big help in the short term? Let us know below! View full article

In a mildly surprising move, the Twins promoted Austin Martin last week. While he was deserving, it’s left the team's roster too right-handed for their normally platoon-heavy ways. How long does the current iteration of the roster last? Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports The Twins' current lineup consists of four left-handed options against right-handed pitchers: Trevor Larnach, Max Kepler, Willi Castro, and Carlos Santana. Their numbers for the year reflect this. While they’ve crushed southpaws, they’ve been below-average against right-handed pitching. The Twins have some pretty good options to try to fix it, but when and how do they go about it? Matt Wallner was the first young player whom the Twins demoted this season. After a rough spring training, he struck out in over half of his at-bats to begin the season, and was sent to Triple-A for a reset. After struggling for a month-plus in St. Paul, Wallner started to heat up around when it became clear that Alex Kirilloff needed a trip to the minor leagues. He was skipped over for the promotion for Austin Martin, but it’s become even more apparent since that decision that Wallner deserves a chance to help turn this offense around for a second year in a row. For a team struggling against right-handed pitching, it’s hard to justify keeping a left-handed former 32nd overall pick in the minor leagues, given how he’s performed recently. Because Wallner posted an .877 OPS in MLB last season and helped save the Twins' season, one could argue that it’s overdue to get him back on the roster. In recent weeks, we’ve seen exactly why the Twins have a below-average slash line against right-handed pitching. What was once a lineup with several underperforming left-handed bats now lacks lefty swingers altogether. Manuel Margot occasionally starts against same-handed pitching, despite a career .657 OPS in those matchups. Kyle Farmer has taken some of these matchups as well. It’s not a good situation for a lineup that includes Christian Vázquez half the time, for defensive reasons. The Twins have a reputation for holding onto veteran players long after it makes strategic sense to do so. As they near July, they may have to make a difficult decision earlier than they’d like. With a group of potential second base options (which includes Castro, Edouard Julien, and Brooks Lee) within the organization, the top choice for who to swap out is all too clear. Kyle Farmer was brought back to beat up left-handed pitching, which the Twins lineup has done despite him posting just a .633 OPS in those matchups. With just two fully left-handed hitters on the roster, the pinch-hit spots will be few and far between, even if Farmer was trusted to take those at-bats, which he has not been for some time now. He is also limited to second base, as the Twins don’t trust him at shortstop, and he has fallen behind Royce Lewis and José Miranda at third base. The Twins have a choice to make. They can let Wallner continue terrorizing Triple-A pitchers, possibly at the expense of the MLB lineup. They can ship out another player who’s either more productive or likely to be a long-term piece of the roster than Farmer. Or they can decide it’s time to value on-field production, which needs to be priority number one as they near the season's halfway point. Is it time to call Matt Wallner to help balance the Twin's platoon issues? Do you agree that Kyle Farmer is the best swap to make? Let us know below! View full article

In general, pulling the ball can be a good thing, especially in the air. Selling out to try to do only that, while also having extremely poor plate discipline is not a good thing. Yes, Buxton has other issues like not catching up to fastballs this season, but his approach is very bad. Why would anyone give him something to pull over the fence when he's swinging whether the pitch is in the zone or not? His approach also relies on his hands remaining lightning quick to turn on pitches, which by the way, may already be waning on him at age 30 as evidenced by his inability to hit fastballs. Whether it was for injury reasons or to chase homers, he's made himself a one trick pony offensively in a way that's almost guaranteed to decline with age. It's very sad to see.

He will likely be worth the $15m base value of his contract based on defense alone. I don't think we have to worry about him hitting many incentives. As he tries to do do nothing but hit homers at the plate, he's probably never going to appear in another ASG or get MVP votes again. That's the trade off that was made.

Who in the world will be playing CF in the early innings?

He's at about 500 PAs between 2023 and 2024 and has actually been less productive this season when he's been mostly "healthy"

Byron Buxton has earned the reputation of a two-way superstar capable of taking over games both offensively and defensively. As we look over the last two seasons of Buxton’s career, is it time to revise that assessment? Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports Byron Buxton remains one of the most dynamic players in a Twins uniform when he’s on the field, but it’s been some time since we’ve seen the offensive highlight-reel player he’s shown he can be (or, ahem, could be). Age, injuries, and his offensive approach are all worth considering when we evaluate the offensive player he currently is. Should we be looking at Buxton differently? Buxton has not been a consistent offensive contributor since the beginning of 2023. He’s still capable of a big hit now and then, but we haven’t seen a sustained period of Buxton being one of the Twins' best hitters in a very long time. At 30 years old, a few factors should leave many wondering whether we will see another elite offensive season from the Twins center fielder. Unfortunately, Buxton is as well-known for his time spent off the field as he is for the highlight-reel plays he’s involved in when healthy and playing. His list of past injuries includes his groin, foot, hamstring, hip, and, more recently, chronic knee issues. It’s difficult to imagine such a lengthy list of previous injuries not having a long-term effect on him. As Buxton’s power, quality of contact, and contact rate decline, you have to wonder if his body's wear and tear is the culprit. Buxton is also a different hitter than we saw at his peak. It was always unfair to expect Buxton to repeat his 2021 season, in which he posted a 1.005 OPS in 61 games, but he completely transformed as a hitter over the last few years, and not in a way that one would expect much long-term success from. After the 2021 season, Buxton appeared to make some changes to his approach, either because of injury or in search of some more sustainable way to achieve the same gaudy numbers he put up that year. His flyball rate skyrocketed from 38.4% to 51.1%, which would increase again in 2023. His pull rate increased from 53.8% to 58.2%. His plate approach became based on hunting for home runs, and ironically, his isolated slugging has dropped off precipitously every season since. Some of his flyball and pull rate tendencies aren’t quite as extreme this year, but he’s still in this mold of hitter. Buxton has compiled nearly 500 plate appearances over the last two seasons and posted a .713 OPS. His on-base percentage is below .300, which isn’t surprising, considering he has an 8.5% walk rate and 31.4% strikeout rate during that time. Not even the slugging percentage, which is the entire goal of his plate approach, has been impressive during the last two seasons. His slugging is below .400 in 2024, as he continues a trend of three consecutive seasons of this number declining. If he were still hitting the ball as hard at the best of times, or lifting it with authority at anywhere near the same frequency, we could confidently project that Buxton's power would rebound. It's just not there. Buxton's average exit velocity on batted balls was 92.9 MPH in 2022. It fell to 91.5 MPH in 2023, and so far this year, it's just 89.5. His 90th-percentile exit velocities have trended down, from 109.2 MPH in 2021 to 106.4 this season. Managing editor Matthew Trueblood created weighted sweet-spot exit velocity (wSSEV) to balance a hitter's ability to hit line drives and fly balls with their exit velocity on those batted balls, and Buxton's has utterly cratered since 2021, stepping down from 92.3 that year to the upper 80s the last two years, to 85.6 in 2024. He's gone from near-elite to below-average, in overall production and in underlying indices like this one. This year, though his exit velocity on balls that result in outs have held pretty steady, those measurements taken on balls that ended up as hits show a marked decline from previous years. This isn’t to say Buxton is no longer valuable; his defense alone makes him one of the Twins' better players. It is approaching time to accept that the days of Buxton carrying the lineup could be behind him. His free-swinging approach was never one that would age well, and it looks a lot like injuries have sped up his slide down the aging curve. Selling out for pulled fly balls will still work occasionally, but that’s typically only a long-term success when accompanied by elite plate discipline. As Buxton relies on taking pitches out of the park, opposing pitchers have no reason to throw him anything he’s looking for, and there’s a real chance that his ability to punish these pitches has declined due to age and injury. Whether injuries or an active choice forced it, Byron Buxton’s change at the plate has made him a boom-or-bust hitter. As we’ve seen him reach 30 years of age, the boom hasn’t been there enough, as we now have a lengthy sample size of him being a below-league-average hitter. Is this the new norm for Byron Buxton? View full article

I think there will be a 40 man spot opening in a few days when Royce is back. Hopefully.

The only problem is that costs another roster spot and Paddack would still be accumulating innings. I also think when it's time for Festa to debut, you give him a shot as a legitimate starting pitcher. He's built up to throw 5-6 innings, so why not?

I think it'd cost Festa plus something significant for a well performing starting pitcher with multiple years of control. Not to mention Luzardo will make pretty good money next year which will cause issues elsewhere on the roster. At that point I'd just roll with the top prospect who's dominating Triple-A. I'm not really one to hug prospects, but if the Twins think Festa is good, it'd be weird to draft him and develop him right up to the point where he looks MLB ready and then trade him away.

They won't have any problem with that. Slap him with the "shoulder impingement" label and send him off. Teams do it all the time.

FWIW, Louie Varland made his debut against the Yankees and did fine. It actually comes with 2 advantages. 1. There's not a huge scouting report on a guy making his debut yet 2. Festa wouldn't know yet that he's supposed to let the Yankees walk all over him

It was always assumed that Chris Paddack would require some upkeep throughout his first season after Tommy John surgery. Are we seeing some signs that it’s time for a rest? Image courtesy of © Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports Chris Paddack has had a strong season thus far, with an ERA of just over 4.50, which doesn’t tell the story of how great he’s been at times. While he’s had something of an up-and-down season in terms of stuff and success, it seems that he’s trending down more recently as we approach June. Is it time for the Twins to give him a break? Paddack has, surprisingly, been asked to eat low-leverage innings at times, and has been allowed to pitch deeply into starts. It should be no surprise that he looks worn down, as he surpasses 60 innings in the season. In his previous start against the Rangers, his velocity was down across the board, including 1.7 mph on the fastball. Against Kansas City on Thursday, the fastball was down 1.9 mph. It may be time. We’ve seen the Twins manage pitchers like Michael Pineda in the past by placing them on the IL for even the minimum amount of time to build back up and withstand the long stretch of an MLB season. It may be worth considering being proactive, as right now may be the perfect time to give Paddack a breather. For as strapped as the Twins were on starting pitching depth to begin the season, things are looking up. After Anthony DeSclafani required season-ending surgery and Louie Varland was demoted to Triple-A, Simeon Woods Richardson shored up the Twins rotation. Not only has the MLB rotation seen a starting pitcher rise to the occasion, but the Saints have seen a top prospect emerge. A break for Chris Paddack right now would afford David Festa a much-deserved shot in MLB, with a clear end point for the trial and a chance to retreat to Triple-A to work on whatever weaknesses big-league hitters expose. The 6-foot-6 former 13th-rounder has struck out a dominant 36.8% of opposing hitters so far in 2024. His workload has been fully built up, and his starts have become must-see TV with the St. Paul Saints. It’s possible, too, that Festa reaches a wall. He’s approaching the halfway point on his innings total from last year, and it’s possible the Twins still treat him with kid gloves as his prospect status elevates. Filling the innings now with Festa so Paddack can perform down the stretch seems beneficial, understanding that it could allow Festa to take a turn resting and recovering upon his return to the minors. We may see Paddack come out firing in his next start, and in that case, maybe his recent stretch turns out to be a blip. The innings wall will undoubtedly be coming at some point. Neither the Twins nor Paddack wants it to hit in August, when he’s needed most. With an exciting candidate to replace him, should the Twins give Chris Paddack a rest? Should they play it extra carefully? Should they give him a few more starts to assess? Let us know below! View full article