Matt Braun

A Carlos Correa-sized hole now exists in the Twins' payroll, can they look to the trade market to fill it? Image courtesy of © Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports Through trading, the Twins can avoid convincing players to sign with them and instead use forced employment to remove consent from the equation. Does Javier Báez actually want to play in Minnesota? Too bad! The Tigers wanted some prospects, so off you go. Remember to pack some blankets. Let’s look at a few potential targets. This author would like to remind the readers that he did predict the Kyle Farmer trade, so either he’s more clairvoyant than previously understood, or the Twins front office solicits advice from a baseball fan site. For all our sake, let’s hope it’s the former. Javier Báez The Rudy Gobert of baseball, Báez remains a slick shortstop whose offensive methods lead to existentially draining whiffs but ultimately competent batting results. Báez secretly lopped a few points off his strikeout rate in 2022, but his famous power disappeared as well, and the Tigers’ sudden free-fall from a decent 2021 leaves them holding a piece they may prefer to trade. How convenient. Báez is likely to age poorly—have you ever heard of a free swinger who remained in the game well into their 30s—so swallowing five more seasons with a $120 million price tag is an overly aggressive attempt at a rebound. Still, he’ll probably be available, and the list of potential employees for the Twins shrinks daily. Carlos Carrasco In their efforts to sign every baseball player under the sun, Lex Luthor Steve Cohen’s Mets created an expensive, crowded starting rotation that may leave Carlos Carrasco out of the equation. This isn’t just speculation: the Mets are entertaining potential trades for their righty. Carrasco joining the Twins would be a fun reunion of sorts; Derek Falvey oversaw Carrasco’s growth into an excellent yet oddly underrated starter during his extended, fruitful peak in Cleveland. Carrasco has remained effective, shedding a handful of injuries (along with a frightening bout of leukemia in 2019) on his way to a good campaign with enviable peripherals (3.45 xFIP, 20th best amongst starters with 150 innings pitches.) The soon-to-be 36-year-old will receive $14 million next season before hitting the free-agent market. Usually, this author would fulfill the rule of threes and write about another fantastic third option that the Twins could acquire in a trade. That isn’t happening. Looking through the remaining “big” contracts yields a cruel reality: Minnesota has few options. Teams have become wiser these days; George Steinbrenner handing out millions like Costco handing out free samples doesn’t happen anymore, and franchises are less likely to anchor themselves to a truly brutal contract. For the Twins, this isn’t great, as the remaining contracts are albatrosses that no one should touch—Anthony Rendon and Stephen Strasburg —while the middle tier consists of reasonable deals that teams can afford to keep on their books. The pickings are slim. There's a difference between wisely absorbing a contract a team in a different situation would prefer to rid themselves of and tying an anvil to your ankle before taking a dip in the ocean. There are a few deals, mainly Rockies players, but predicting anything with Colorado is like arguing with a cat. You aren’t going to win and everyone will think you look silly. You could trade for Chris Sale and hope this is the year he rebounds, but it's best to leave headaches to your opponents. Minnesota remains in an awkward position; if they desire to inflate its payroll through trades, its choices are a Russian Roulette of old, injured, or old-and-inured players whose glory days last existed before the pandemic. Any useful deal would be complex or non-sensical. It’s a tragic grave, but it’s one that they dug for themselves by focusing their energy on Carlos Correa. Of course, they could always trade for Josh Donaldson. See some overpriced players that the Twins should consider? Share them below. View full article

The Twins recently won the 5th overall pick; how much fruit has that slot borne in MLB history? Image courtesy of © Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports For the Twins, the history of the 5th overall pick is short and straightforward: Nick Gordon and B.J. Garbe. Garbe—an outfielder drafted out of Moses Lake, Washington, in 1999—quickly flamed out in the minors with a bat made of balsa wood. Gordon, however, scrapped through some disappointing minor league seasons to break out with a 113 OPS+ on the Twins last season. He looks to be a future consistent big league ballplayer. Side ramble: that Moses Lake team in 1999 also featured future Twin and negative WAR enthusiast Ryan Doumit who went in the 2nd round that year. Jason Cooper, an outfielder also on that team, eschewed a 2nd round selection from the Phillies for Stanford and eventually ended up with the St. Paul Saints. As someone who has frequently driven through that town, Moses Lake is worthwhile only for the gas you need to make it beyond Spokane. To have three legitimate MLB prospects is unheard of. What a weird time. For major league history as a whole, the 5th overall pick contains fascinating pitchers and hitters, names whose baseball influence flows into the present day and who are necessary to tell baseball’s story. There are three MVP winners, two Cy Young winners, and six players with more than 40 rWAR. But, oddly, no player drafted 5th overall has made the hall of fame. Let’s look at the list of players with more than 10 rWAR: That top six is as strong of a collection of players as you’ll find; add them up, and you have 4 MVP awards, 1 Cy Young award, 28 All-Star selections, 18 Silver Sluggers, 11 Gold Gloves, and 3 Rookie of Year awards. Again, no player resides in the hall—although Dale Murphy owns a strong case, and Buster Posey will surely enter when he’s eligible—but these are all memorable and great players. Taking off the nostalgia glasses and looking at only recent picks tells a far less impressive tale: Kyle Tucker is good! Very good, in fact. Drew Pomeranz has been inconsistent, but an 11-season MLB career is far from disappointing. Then, errr, Jonathan India had a great rookie season in 2021! And Kyle Wright finally broke out in 2022! Alright, it’s a mixed class; there are two firmly established big league regulars with a sprinkling of talented players held back by a few flaws they have yet to shed. If you want to be optimistic, every player drafted 5th overall between 2004 and 2019—except for Matt Hobgood in 2009—has at least made the majors, so there’s a good chance the player the Twins draft will impact the big-league club in some fashion. While this article is fun, it means almost nothing; invisible forces don’t grip the 5th overall pick, cursing whomever the Twins take to be a Hall of Very Good player. Whoever that player is, their story is up to them, not based on a hex placed by Bubba Starling or Kyle Zimmer. There’s a good chance that player ends up a quality, everyday ballplayer for the Twins, and that’s something to be excited for. View full article

This division does know that the off-season started, right? Image courtesy of © Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports Royals The Royals have remained deadly quiet this off-season, not even venturing into “well, maybe he has some potential” waters like they’ve done so often in years past. They’ll likely sign a few low-tier players—they are seldom entirely stuck in neutral—but none of their moves will be of the impact variety. Zack Greinke is Kansas City’s lone free agent of note. The Royals are stuck in an endless rebuild, one that hasn’t seen a season above .500 since their small-ball 2015 team shockingly dominated MLB. They recently cleaned house in the front office; long-time executive and pornography hater Dayton Moore received the boot, and J.J. Piccolo took over the reins as GM in September. Bobby Witt Jr. spearheads a youth movement more promising than any of their previous engagements with young talent, but they are probably still years away from seriously competing for a division title. Tigers The Tigers, fresh off a disappointing 2022 season, have made a few periphery moves. The team reunited with their prodigal son, LHP Matthew Boyd, as this might be the season where his immense swing-and-miss stuff meets home run results that aren’t faint-worthy. The team also traded stalwart reliever Joe Jiménez to the Braves. The return was what you would expect for one year of a solid bullpen arm, perhaps illuminating that Detroit is unsure of its potential. The Tigers also cleaned house recently; Al Avila—the kind of guy to trade his own son—packed his bags, and the team handed control to Giants product Scott Harris. A.J. Hinch is still an excellent manager, but the team’s porous depth and perpetually underperforming farm system left the team out to dry when they needed help the most. As it turns out, Javier Báez and Eduardo Rodriguez are excellent complimentary pieces, not stand-out stars themselves. When there’s no one to compliment, you get the 2022 Tigers. It's unlikely that they will compete in 2023, but they did win a not-embarrassing total of 77 games in 2021, so maybe some potential exists for Detroit. White Sox Guardians Cleveland—the incumbent AL Central champions—have made the most substantial move of any team in the division, inking Josh Bell to a two-year contract worth $33 million. The Guardians aren’t hiding their philosophy; they’ll spend on an occasional luxury piece (Edwin Encarnación, anyone?) but will otherwise stick to internally developing the sickest pitchers you’ve ever seen while hitting just enough to win some ballgames. Michael Baumann covered Bell perfectly on Fangraphs, and I have nothing to add to his analysis, so read his piece if you want to learn more about that signing. The good news is that Cleveland is probably done with their off-season; it would be genuinely shocking if they made another move of a similar caliber, as quality-over-quantity tends to be their modus operandi. They rarely stray from that blueprint. The Twins have work to do—like signing a single free agent—but the rest of the division doesn’t offer much of a threat. The Guardians are the only real competitors, and while they’ve made a significant move, the Twins possess the talent to challenge their authority in 2023. View full article

He's probably more valuable to the Twins than any other team. Find out why. Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports Perhaps no Twins player draws more ire than Max Kepler; the long-time right-fielder has disappointed over his eight-season MLB career as—with the exception of 2019—his offensive numbers fall below his potential. Season after season, the German product produces a .225/.317/.422 line, flashes an offensive profile with upside and fails to fulfill that promise in the following season. It’s madness. Naturally, the restless fans remain exhausted. They don’t boo—this isn’t New York, after all—but if there were some sort of passive-aggressive method to indicate disapproval, Minnesota fans would embrace it. Instead, we read yearly articles detailing all the teams interested in Kepler, watch him enter the season as a Twin, and endure the same style of season he has played since 2016. It’s madness. But maybe the Twins should hold onto Kepler for one more year. It’s crazy—madness, even—but it could make sense. One of the strongest arguments for Kepler’s exit rests on the internal options. The Twins possess about 20,000 left-handed hitting outfielders capable of catching a flyball at an adequate level, rendering Kepler’s skillset redundant in a sea of similarity. Those options may be weaker than we believe; neither Alex Kirilloff nor Trevor Larnach has played more than 80 games in an MLB season, so far always succumbing to an injury that cuts their year short. Matt Wallner may have the bat, but his outfield flopping netted him -4 DRS over just 138 2/3 MLB innings, 14th worst 91 players with 130 innings in right field. DRS is a cumulative stat. That’s bad. Nick Gordon may be best suited for the role, but he is more valuable as a jack-of-all-trades positionless weapon, not a locked-in everyday player. Kepler, on the other hand, is an elite defender in right field and can cover center at an above-average level, perhaps not an easy skill to find with Target Field’s unusual characteristics in that section of the field. Maybe he’ll never break through the 100 wRC+ glass ceiling, but he’ll also never outright bust with the bat. And, sigh, there might be optimism for Kepler’s bat. WARNING. DISCUSSION OF MAX KEPLER’S BATTED BALL DATA BELOW It’s folly to analyze Kepler’s hitting; his BABIP baffles the wisest of sabermetricians, and this author swore an oath years ago never to attempt to understand it. More innovative writers have tried and failed, and there’s a good chance the answer to his mysterious hit tool lies wherever Jimmy Hoffa is buried. But let’s go. Kepler’s under-the-hood numbers improved drastically in 2022; his max exit velocity reached 113.8 MPH, his xwOBA stood in the 74th percentile of all batters, and he cut his already-low strikeout rate while holding steady with his walks. His Baseball Savant page has enough red to drive Joseph McCarthy crazy. Even in his weirdest batting seasons, Kepler’s batted-ball data never looked this pristine; there’s a chance he truly experienced bad luck in 2022. If those improvements are here to stay—it would be weird if he suddenly fell off at 30 years old—the new limits to shifting combined with his changes in 2022 may finally unluck his offensive profile. Remember all those times he hit a sharp groundball directly into short right field for an out? Those days are gone; instead, he’ll earn a well-fought single for his efforts, not an out. It makes sense to deal Kepler; the team has plenty of backup options, and if the team is pinching its pennies to sign Carlos Correa and a top-tier starter, Kepler is the obvious candidate for heaving. The logic is there. But there are worse things than having a guaranteed solid player on your roster, and Kepler’s defensive acumen will be difficult to replace. Maybe this sounds like Stockholm Syndrome, but Kepler should stay. View full article

The longtime backstop took to Twitter on Friday, announcing the end of his 12-year MLB career. Image courtesy of Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports Not all positions include glory. While shortstops can dive their way into our hearts, and outfielders can sprint into highlight reels, the catcher crouches behind the plate, methodically managing the game for 27 outs daily. It’s a professional job that requires a professional temperament. Jason Castro had precisely that. Castro represented a new shift in the Twins’ organization; the Stanford product signed a three-year, $24.5 million deal following the 2016 deal, signaling a move toward a meticulous appreciation for invisible benefits. It was the first deal Derek Falvey and Thad Levine consummated as Twins executives. Castro wasn’t going to hit—his only notable offensive season came in 2013—but he could work with pitchers, helping them become the best versions of themselves while earning little credit. The team felt his impact immediately, losing nearly half a run off their team ERA with primarily the same pitching staff. Youngsters like Taylor Rogers and José Berríos enjoyed MLB success, while Ervin Santana captured Cy Young votes. The 2017 Twins were odd, but Castro’s steady presence helped guide the team through an unusual trade deadline into their first playoff game since Target Field’s inaugural season. After an injury cut Castro’s 2018 short, he returned to play a role on a Twins team that looked different than before. The 2019 Twins pounded the ball at a historic rate, and with breakout catcher Mitch Garver flourishing, Castro’s role on the team diminished. He caught just 78 games and hit for a modest .232/.332/.435 line that vanished in a sea of slugging. Still, his 13 homers helped the team edge out the Yankees in the home run race, netting them the record for homers hit in a season with a solo shot off a familiar face. Castro transitioned to a journeyman following his stint with the Twins. The Angels and Padres enjoyed his services before he returned to Houston, playing in 100 games in his final two seasons, winning a World Series ring along the way. While Castro doesn't have any plans yet for a post-playing career, David Laurila wrote that he would be open to an coaching position revolved around analytics, something that could bring him back into the fold in Minnesota. "I haven’t given much thought to what will be next," said Castro. "...but analytics are something I have a lot of experience with. I’ve learned a lot, starting from almost nothing, over the course of my career. There’s been a huge evolution, especially over the past six or seven years. So, we’ll see.” View full article

Carlos Correa and the star pitchers have earned their proper attention, but what about the periphery players? Today, we will examine why the Twins might want to trade Jorge Polanco. Image courtesy of Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports As the longest-tenured Twins player—he rubbed elbows with Kendrys Morales while sipping his cup of coffee in 2014—Polanco’s presence provided continuity during the great team overhaul following 2016. Rather than start from scratch, the new decision-makers earmarked Polanco (and Max Kepler) as answers to the problem, not sources of the malady, and both players signed extensions before the 2019 season. Polanco represents the best and worst of Twins position players under the Falvey regime: a skilled OBP and power threat with a worrisome lack of defensive ability whose nagging injuries have capped his upside. His .272/.339/.455 slash line since 2018 makes him the envy of the middle infield ball—those players have hit for a collective .257/.318/.409 over the same period. Yet, despite a move to an easier position, defensive stats remain unamused with Polanco’s glove, constantly ranking him as a poor defender. Looking around the league, that style of position-less player has fallen out of fashion; the Houston Astros employ a litany of two-way stars who can hit as well as they can field, and the Dodgers only sign a player if they can catch, man shortstop, glide in the outfield, and announce in a pinch if Joe Davis catches a cold. Yordan Álvarez is an exception, but teams tend to ignore fielding gaffes when you’re hitting at a near Bondsian level. Despite the defensive issues, Polanco’s contract helps buoy his value. That deal from 2019 remains in effect, and assuming that a team will jump at the opportunity to pick up his $12 million club option for 2025, he is effectively good for three years of control at $30 million. That’s an attractive price tag. A team like like the Cubs might happily deal quality prospects or equivalent major-league talent to net Polanco’s offensive consistency for just $10 million a season. In what we could call “The Edouard Julien Influence,” the Twins may already have a major-league-caliber starter waiting in the wings. Julien spent his 2022 regular season smoking pitches at AA before finding an extra gear in the Arizona Fall League, ramping up his batting to lead the whole darn league in OPS (1.249). Yes, that number is correct. He also stole six bases without a misstep, just for giggles. Minnesota understood his value and added him to the 40-man roster, protecting him from other conniving teams in the Rule-5 draft. Julien’s glove is as detrimental as Polanco’s, which negates the previous defensive argument, but his bat has a good chance at reaching the same plateau. Or, just as well, the Twins could move Luis Arraez back to his original position, ending the hilarious adventures in having a 5' 10" first baseman with 14 career home runs. The savings matter. Re-signing Carlos Correa—beyond being the right move—eats up a significant portion of the theoretical payroll cap, enough to make squeezing in a Carlos Rodón type impossible. If the Twins want both a star shortstop and a starting pitcher better than Matt Shoemaker, they need to diligently purge their books, and the Gio Urshela trade does not create enough leeway. It would be a tough move; few enjoy seeing an old friend go, especially when they are still productive, but Minnesota needs to engage in ruthless efficiency if they want to move forward into the highest tier of teams. View full article

For the umpteenth time in Twins history, the beginning of free agency opens up one dominating question: will the Twins acquire a top-tier starting pitcher? Cavemen have etched the question on walls, and if one listens closely enough, the stars cry out the same chorus, lamenting Minnesota’s lack of elite starters. Image courtesy of Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports The Twins have yet to answer with an unquestionable “yes.” Kenta Maeda was close, but he disappointed in 2021 before undergoing Tommy John surgery; Sonny Gray nearly reached the “elite” platform, but nicks and bruises have limited him to a solidly secondary tier; Tyler Mahle faltered before earning a chance to prove himself. In each case, the pitcher flashed potential, perhaps hinting that an elite starter existed underneath their skin, but none have yet fulfilled that potential. The issue nags on. Minnesota’s starting rotation looks good enough if you don’t squint too hard and if someone turns off the injury setting, but it’s not a squad that compares favorably to the collection of arms elite teams like the Astros can boast. Part of the problem is development; the Twins have lagged behind the best teams in turning their homegrown draft picks into feared arms, and they have not cracked the code in revealing the true potential of other teams’ perpetual under-performers. They tried with Chris Paddack—perhaps they almost succeeded—but his elbow broke again, and the Twins could only claim a failed gamble. With the exception of Ryan Pressly, they haven’t become a victim of pitching pick-pocketing, but their best heist to date is Joe Ryan. As for those draft picks, José Berríos pitched some of the finest seasons this side of Johan Santana, but he never embraced his ace potential, instead finding respectable success as an inconsistent yet talented #2. No other draft pick compares to him. A flurry of Terry Ryan prospects—most notably Stephen Gonsalves, Fernando Romero, and Adalberto Mejía—tried and failed to succeed; Twins pitchers drafted by the new regime have yet to impact the franchise. The team turned to free agency. Michael Pineda gave Minnesota a few quality years, but the team has primarily followed a distinct pattern of whiffing on the big names—most notably Yu Darvish and Zack Wheeler—while signing cheap starters who performed like cheap starters. Maybe one could claim 2019 Martín Pérez as a win, but doing so proves how fruitless the Twins have been with starters in free agency under Derek Falvey; a playoff team needs more than a lopsided 1.9 fWAR season from a pitcher who didn’t take the mound in the postseason that year. Until the Twins break the mold, Andrew Heaney is the best they can do. Heaney is a perfect Twin: a troubled starter with great stuff and a devastating penchant for giving up jackhammer levels of loud contact. Heaney finally realized his strikeout potential in 2022, punching out 35.5% of hitters in a dominating season that culminated in a 3.10 ERA, even better peripherals, and just 14 starts due to a variety of health problems. Injuries wilted his excellence, and the Dodgers could only squeeze six innings out of Heaney in two outings, limiting him to just 1.1 fWAR despite the great pitching. In the current free agent context—one Nick Nelson noted could be especially troublesome for a team looking for an ace—the Twins’ likely option will be praying for Heaney’s health. They could sign Carlos Rodón, but their history says they won’t do that. If—probably, when—the best arms sign elsewhere, Minnesota will look at Heaney, talk themselves into his incredible upside, and bet against reason that this is the year he finally stays healthy. View full article

For real, what are they waiting for? Image courtesy of Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports Some moves require abstraction, an extended philosophical debate to understand how a player will fit in with their new team. Many articles will attempt to understand this. Beyond the apparent positional need on hand, one’s skill set, cost, and clubhouse fit are all crucial considerations, potentially providing as much impact as their on-field play. There is no such issue with Omar Narvaez. The Twins have stepped as close as possible to revealing their interest in Narváez as Derek Falvey will ever admit. After implying The Great Gary Sánchez Experiment flopped, Falvey—as smothered in his lawyer-talk sauce as possible—said we should “probably anticipate” the Twins looking at a catcher platoon with Ryan Jeffers. “Ryan had a really good year against left-handed pitching,” he continued. “That’s a good sign. I’m not saying he’s exclusively a platoon (player), but there is an opportunity to match up going forward.” Narvaez is the only opportunity. Seriously, Willson Contreras and Christian Vazquez—the two other best free agent catchers—hit from the right side of the batter's box, while Sean Murphy—the next former Athletic and biggest name in the backstop trade arena—also enjoys right-handed privileges. Any of those three players would be great additions, but their overlapping righty-ness with Jeffers would negate platoon efficiency and the Twins under Falvey love efficiency. Beyond his left-handed capabilities, Narváez fits the mold of a Twins catcher: a framing expert who can provide enough jolt with the bat to make you mutter “not bad for a catcher” more than a handful of times a season. His offense slipped in 2022–a .305 slugging can never look good—but his bat failed him in 2020 as well, and it recovered for an adequate .266/.342/.402 line in 2021. Even if this dead cat never bounces, a defensive specialist in Jason Castro’s mold is far from a roster curse. Jeffers has yet to play with such a teammate in his Twins career. Since 2021 when the Twins anointed him as the future, the 25-year-old awkwardly matched with the similarly skilled Mitch Garver, the fun, yet limited Willians Astudillo, the offensively dreadful Ben Rortvedt, the aforementioned Sánchez, and the Wario-shaped Sandy León. All of those players, ranging from poor matches to overwhelmed in an important skill critical to winning baseball games, fail to compliment Jeffers in the way Narváez can. It’s not exactly the smooth 2019 duo of Castro and Garver, but it could come close. Other baseball minds agree in the combination; the Fangraphs blurb about Narváez states that “...at this stage, he’s a backup catcher best paired with a righty-hitting starter, which might relieve some of the physical burden of catching from both parties and create more overall production at the position.” It’s like they were thinking of the Twins while writing. Of course, the Twins must involve themselves in negotiating, politicking, and a great deal of boring phone calls about trades and signings that never happen before they can admit defeat and simply sign a necessary player. Throw in the Carlos Correa Conundrum reserving the majority of Minnesota’s attention, and their periphery will likely remain blocked until Falvey is sick of hearing Scott Boras’ awful jokes for eight hours a day. Once that happens, the Twins should probably sign Omar Narváez. It makes too much sense, right? View full article

I also added in a few prospects with extreme statistical profiles, just for fun. Image courtesy of Andrew West/The News-Press via Imagn Content Services, LLC Noah Cardenas For my life, I can’t figure out why Noah Cardenas isn’t well-regarded as a prospect. Catchers who can hit are rare; catchers who can hit and field well are unique, and Cardenas might be that kind of player. Let’s start with the bat: his .302/.407/.426 line at UCLA has translated well to a .261/.421/.413 one over his first full season in professional ball, 99 games with the Fort Myers Mighty Mussels. Despite a hitting environment that favors pitchers, Cardenas rode his excellent feel for the plate to an 18.2% walk rate, good for 3rd in the Florida League; his .421 OBP placed him 4th. Fielding is more difficult to analyze—even major league stats remain shaky these days—but Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin refer to him as a “glove-driven” catcher, and the Pac-12 honored Cardenas with an honorable mention on their All-Defensive Team in 2019. He’s a touch older than your typical A-ball player—he celebrated his 23rd birthday on September 10th—but Cardenas should remain firmly on your radar over the next few years. Cody Laweryson “Fun” is seldom a word that describes a prospect, but the word fits Cody Laweryson’s bill perfectly. A 14th-round pick out of Maine in 2019, Laweryson shocked with a monstrous 15-strikeout performance to end his time in rookie ball but entered a hiatus thanks to the canceled minor league season in 2020. His 2021 season was forgettable, but he returned with a dominating 2022 campaign. Laweryson silenced bats with a 1.62 ERA, flipping between starting and relief, striking out 30.2% of hitters while walking just 7.2%. He even stepped up his game at AA, holding a 1.06 ERA over 59 ⅔ innings in a hitter-friendly environment. Laweryson’s secret sauce is deception, a crane-like delivery with slanted arms and raised elbows that would fit perfectly next to Michael Jackson in the Thriller music video. Hitters can barely see the ball as a barrage of limbs fly toward the plate, masking Laweryson’s pitches until too late. The Twins chose not to protect Laweryson in the upcoming Rule 5 draft, opening up the chance for another team to poach him. Brent Headrick In May, Matthew Lenz told us we should start noticing Brent Headrick. He was on to something. After struggling with command in 2021, Headrick shifted into high gear in 2022, punching out batters at an elite rate—31%, to be exact—while limiting walks with Joe Musgrove-esque control. Even a promotion into a hitters' lion's den—the Texas League—couldn’t slow down Headrick’s reign; his K-BB% barely budged after joining the Wind Surge. While not a velocity expert, Headrick works with a deceptive delivery, placing pitches in their proper location before punching out the batter with a high fastball or a diving breaking ball. The Twins agree that Headrick is fascinating; the team chose to protect him in the upcoming Rule 5 draft, perhaps paving a path for the Illinois State product to pitch for the major league club in 2023. Others Prospect evaluation is far from perfect, but one can often parse through the noise, instead focusing on the statistical freak shows who have become major league stars in recent seasons. Steven Kwan rode an elite contact profile to a 4.4 fWAR season; our own Luis Arraez broke out and won a silver slugger in 2022; Cristian Javier’s absurd minor league K numbers have translated to a career 30.9% K rate in the majors. These players were dinged for other drawbacks, but their outlier abilities have carried them to major league success. Here are a few guys in the Twins organization who stick out: Jaylen Nowlin Jaylen Nowlin struck out 35.9% of hitters in 2022. His command was dreadful enough to omit from this paragraph—his walk rate could scare the less courageous among us—but that punch-out rate will keep him around, maybe translating to major league playing time. Austin Schulfer The nearly 27-year-old Austin Schulfer is knocking loud enough on the Twins’ door that the neighbors are starting to get irritated. His strikeout and walk rates moved in the wrong direction in 2022, but his groundball rate jumped from average to 58.3%, good for tops in the system amongst all pitchers with 50 innings. Only seven qualified MLB relievers could claim a better penchant for grounders in 2022. Noah Miller 19-year-olds aren’t supposed to walk 16.2% of the time in their first full season in professional baseball, especially when they play in an offensively stunted environment. Noah Miller’s extra-base authority lagged, but his feel for the zone is already elite. View full article

Farmer played 75 innings of Shortstop in the Dodgers organization. Although, he did man the position more at Georgia and while playing in the Cape Cod league.

There’s no time for a traditional intro paragraph; let’s talk about what Kyle Farmer can bring to the Minnesota Twins. Image courtesy of Albert Cesare/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK Kyle Farmer is, to be kind, an obscure baseball presence. A former catcher, raised in the blue-blood Dodgers farm system—something he has in common with his Twins garlicky brother in Kyle—Farmer’s major league impact has been a ripple, not a wave. There was the time he walked off the Giants in his major league debut, but two full seasons OPSing at a below-average rate with the Reds doesn’t place you on many radars. At least, not worthwhile ones. At a cursory glance, the Twins may have sent away Gio Urshela just to acquire an older, cheaper, and slightly worse Gio Urshela. But that narrative sells Farmer short; his OPS over the past two seasons is nearly bang-on league average for a shortstop (.716 for Farmer, .714 for the league), while, at least in 2021, Statcast’s OAA measure clocked Farmer as one of the finest glovemen at his position, crediting him with six outs above average while handling shortstop. That placed him as the 9th-best fielding shortstop that year. His defense in 2022 was not as sparkling, though, and which Farmer the Twins will receive defensively appears to be an open question—one made murkier with shift-aided success in 2021. With new rules limiting where infielders are allowed to stand, those bonus outs to the right of 2nd base will no longer exist; whether Farmer can regain his form at the traditional shortstop position will be up to him. His bat, however, has remained consistent, especially against lefties. As the great Tom Froemming has pointed out, Farmer is infield Kyle Garlick, pillaging southpaw villages while leaving fire and rubble in his wake. Lefties loathed facing Farmer, allowing a .948 OPS against him in 2022, a significant step up from his already hefty career line of .288/.345/.492 against them. The Twins, as pointed out by this author, have struggled against lefties since the 2019 season; any extra boost rounds out the team offensively. The debate now focuses on where he fits on the team. While he could technically start as the everyday shortstop, a certain 28-year-old Puerto Rican is the preferred target of Twins fans. The Great Carlos Correa Question remains unanswered, and until his pen touches paper once again, the Twins’ shortstop position will operate with split-pea soup haziness. It’s unlikely that the team will open business in late March with Farmer as the starting shortstop; instead, this author guesses he will operate as a super-utility infielder focusing on playing against lefties. Farmer has played every position in the infield—indeed, that means every position—and even subbed in for four frames in the outfield. The Twins lack a player in that mold, especially one who has flashed an ability to hold down shortstop at an exceptional level. But who knows? The Twins relish acquiring baseline players early to set up bigger splashes later. Trying to guess Farmer’s roster contribution in November is like being a stockbroker in 1929. More moves will fill in the roster, creating a much clearer picture, but for now, the Twins appear to have a helpful infielder who can mash lefties, something they have needed for years. View full article

On Monday Night, news broke that the Twins agreed to a one-year deal with outfielder Kyle Garlick for $750,000. Let’s talk about it. Image courtesy of Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports The Good Lord put Kyle Garlick on this Earth to do one thing: mash left-handed pitching. The 30-year-old isn’t a great fielder, has never taken more than 200 plate appearances in a season at the major league level, and consistently fails to hold a Duolingo streak (allegedly). But, he can put a hurt on a ball thrown from a southpaw like few players in MLB. Garlick’s career slash line against lefties is a lopsided .251/.301/.538, almost a mirror image of Byron Buxton’s .224/.306/.526 total effort in 2022, and a hearty upgrade over the average AL slash line against lefties in 2022 (.246/.315/.399). I tried typing Garlick’s line against right-handers, but the power ominously flicked on and off while a ghastly voice told me the day of my death. For Minnesota, the fit is obvious; the team is 21st in MLB in OPS against lefties dating back to the 2020 season, as core players like Max Kepler and, strangely, Miguel Sanó have found themselves flummoxed when facing southpaws. While other lefty killers like Mitch Garver and C.J. Cron have exited stage right, the Twins have struggled to find replacements, and the team that dominated lefties in 2019 (.872 OPS!!) needs aid against them. This is an aside, but Nelson Cruz hit .361/.438/.730 against lefties while in a Twins uniform. Man, that guy rocked. For Garlick, the deal is a nice safety net; players who break into the league at the age of 27 don’t usually become roster fixtures, and Garlick’s two-year tenure with the Twins has so far represented the heftiest playing time any major-league franchise has offered him. Health has also failed Garlick. The outfielder suffered four separate injuries in 2022 while a sports hernia knocked out most of his 2021 campaign. His new contract worth $750,000 is now a little over the veteran minimum of $700,000, making the deal a slight perk up to his paycheck. Garlick will never be an impact player, but every team needs tertiary specialists, and the Twins have been significantly lacking in players who can thump a lefty. It’s easy to imagine a late-game scenario where Rocco Baldelli pinch-hits Garlick with a lefty reliever stuck on the mound, giving the Twins a better chance to nab an extra-base hit, potentially securing a crucial run. Or, maybe, Garlick starts against a tough lefty, cranking two homers in a rousing effort. You don’t even need to imagine that one because he did it last year against Shane McClanahan. In any case, the deal is a low-stakes buy-in for a player who helps fix a desperate roster need. If healthy, Garlick could be a useful piece against a niche, yet important, variety of pitcher. If he isn't healthy, the team is down a sum of money any good accountant could wipe away with ease. View full article

The World Series remains in motion, at least for a time, so what better thing to do than to analyze postseason catchers? You know it will be fun. Image courtesy of Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports I looked at the playoff catchers—no need to thank me, it’s all in a day’s work—and one glaring, obvious, apparent, unmistakable, overt trend exists: framing wins ballgames. This isn’t news. At least, it shouldn’t be. Through a combo platter of decreased stealing, increased stuff, and the realization that those extra strikes actually do matter, the catching position has evolved to fit the framing niche. MLB has shifted towards a homogenized framing aesthetic so dominant that the Houston Astros actively happily stomach watching Martin Maldonado hit just to enjoy his defense rewards. If you’ve stumbled onto a broadcast, any broadcast over the last few seasons, you’ve likely noticed the catcher kneeling in a position that would give Sparky Anderson a heart attack. Even with a man on first base, the catcher will remain touching the ground, utterly unphased by whatever threat the runner poses while focusing on receiving the ball with masterful precision. A stolen base is palatable; a missed strike is not. It shouldn’t be a surprise, then, that eight of the top nine catchers by Baseball Prospectus’ framing stat belong to playoff teams. The tenth was a 27-year-old rookie in Colorado named Brian Serven. Hi, Brian. In contrast, only two of the worst 10 framers—Austin Nola and Francisco Mejia —started for a playoff team. The other fascinating trend had to do with playing time: almost no team relies on a singular catcher anymore. Outside of J.T. Realmuto, a true athletic freak who can do everything well, Alejandro Kirk, a well-rounded youngster in Toronto, and Cal Raleigh, the big dumper, playoff teams rely on a tandem of framers, eschewing ideas of one star in favor of a two-headed team. Although, the star-catcher approach may have returned somewhat amongst the MLB landscape as a whole; there were five primary catchers with more than 500 plate appearances in 2022, the highest total in a full season since 2018. That’s great and all, but what can the Twins glean from this? They may already have one of their pieces in Ryan Jeffers. He can frame with the best of them (24th out of 120 catchers, according to Baseball Prospectus), and his .208/.285/.363 slash line in 2022 is in the ballpark of your average major league catcher, as backstops collectively hit .226/.295/.363. He may have more in his bat; Baseball Savant thinks he underperformed his batted-ball data, and his top-end exit velocity is elite. Still, he’s just one player—one not nearly good enough to carry a team like Realmuto. The Twins need a sidekick. There are a few names available at the peak—Omar Narvaez, Christian Vazquez , Sean Murphy if they’re feeling spicy—who can provide varying degrees of batting prowess, but the middle of the free-agent pack provides defensive gurus like Tucker Barnhart and Austin Hedges. Although, offensive capabilities in this group drop from “acceptable” to “Lovecraftian horror.” Of course, there’s a wrench that MLB will toss into this: new rule changes next season will encourage and likely boost the run game. With bigger bases and a pitch clock entering the fold, players might release their inner Vince Coleman, pushing teams to find a happy medium between hyper-focused framing and stolen base watchdogging. Or maybe stolen bases remain stagnant. Baseball moves like that sometimes. If the steal does return, the Twins may be wise to anticipate the trend and sign a gun-slinger to catch beside Jeffers. Really, this entire article could read as “Gary Sanchez was not the answer.” Backstops with offensive upside—and only offensive upside—must reach some sort of Willson Contreras plateau before serious playoff teams consider them a legitimate option. That’s just the game these days. Sanchez was a potentially explosive addition—ushering him away from the New York media seemed wise—but the move didn’t work, and the team should learn that lesson. The Twins will probably need to find Jason Castro 2.0 if they want to play meaningful baseball beyond September. View full article