Matt Braun

I don't believe I made any of those assumptions or said any of those things

My stance would be that they got historically fortunate that two teams failed to cross the finish line with him despite both deals reaching the formality stage.

The Twins continue to follow a path leading to nothing. Image courtesy of Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports One-year deals are an admission of fault. Either the market lacked quality, all trade routes fell through, or the internal options were so hideous that the team felt it necessary to promise a player pay for just a single year of their time. For the athlete, a one-year-deal represents one of two things: an opportunity to bounce back from a dreadful season, perhaps re-inflating one’s value before hitting the free market with a prettier sheen, or an acceptance of age, an understanding that father time’s inevitable march will render your talents useless. No team wants to lose out in a nebulous contract musical chairs, so the player Nelson Cruz’s it and agrees to one-year pacts before slithering away into retirement. Or he’ll sign with Pittsburgh. Teams love diving into these waters. If the contract busts, they don’t have to be the poor souls legally stuck to an albatross, and their job security only takes the slightest hit. It was a good bet, after all. If the deal works, they look like genius, clairvoyant decision-makers who can reap the benefits of a productive player while raking in compliments. In a land where Xander Bogaerts signs for 11 years, that’s a reasonable pool to visit. There’s an emptiness to these deals, though. While professional sports is a business, we like to create connections with players, perhaps fooling ourselves into ignoring the massive amounts of money that exchange hands to allow their athletic ability to shine. When Max Kepler mans right field for the millionth time in a Twins uniform, our shared experience builds a connection, one that draws people closer to their romantic idea of a hometown sports team. What relationship will we have with Joey Gallo? How can we fully love a player destined to leave? The player’s intentions become evident in this scenario. While Carlos Correa may become hands-on—which may not reflect well on him given the 2022 Twins’ record—other athletes may embody their hitman spirit, poisoning the clubhouse spirit with a selfish demeanor. The Twins, oddly, acknowledged this issue. Following the disappointing 2018 season, Derek Falvey admitted that their clubhouse grew a funky stink stemming from grouchy veterans on short-term deals. Logan Morrison and Lance Lynn were whiny and bad—that was what he wanted to say. In response to their problem, the Twins turned around and acted like they didn’t hear their own words. Nelson Cruz, Jonathan Schoop, and Martín Pérez signed up for a ride on the 2019 Twins bus—a booming home run tour of the United States—but that season appears fluky. A hyper-juiced ball? Two full seasons of below .500 play afterward? The only thing right about that year was the Yankees immediately spanking them the second October entered the equation. Once COVID neutered the 2020 season, the Twins hopped back onto the ball, signing a litany of average talent to one-year deals, setting themselves up for a disastrous season the team is still reeling from. J.A. Happ almost threw 100 innings for the team. He made Dylan Bundy sound like a good idea. The ultimate question is this: what’s the end goal? One-year contracts are supposed to plug holes, not dominate the team's structure; imagine a dam constructed out of duct tape. The guess is that the team is saving for some future move, but few long-term deals of that nature have come to fruition, and the only significant splash players—Josh Donaldson and Carlos Correa—are no longer Twins. Ehire Adrianza entered the batter’s box donning a Minnesota jersey more times than either of those players. They were able to nail down a Byron Buxton contract, although they seemed disappointed that they couldn’t trade him to Philadelphia for scraps beforehand. The Twins deserve credit for that signing, but his deal pays him $15 million a season—far less than the market rate for superstar talent. If anything, the agreement should fuel a spending spree: they have their star locked down for relatively little, add as many great players as you can. Even with little tied down in their books, the Twins remained hesitant to drop enough money to coax Correa back home. There’s no purpose to their choices. They’re saving money for a future in which they save more money. Maybe they’re looking even further forward, but there’s no guarantee that free agents down the road—enjoy all that money, Rafael Devers—actually become available. Until that big, non-opt-outable deal occurs, they’ll remain in this loop, always saving for a someday that never comes. View full article

With one clean move, Steve Cohen altered baseball. After already assembling a hivemind of talent capable of thumping a challenging NL East, the man richer than God signed Carlos Correa, and we all have to live with the consequences. Image courtesy of Frank Becerra Jr. / The Journal News / USA TODAY NETWORK Steve Cohen is a man outside of MLB. He views his team as a fan, not a businessman. Other franchises may penny-pinch, cry poor, or slice on the margins in a twisted strategic game dressed as analytical wisdom yet ultimately rooted in the almighty bottom line. Cohen is a different beast. He will stop at nothing to acquire the best talent the Lord placed on this Earth. “If it’s a few percent more, what’s the difference?” said the man who had just pledged to pay a guy over $300 million. He probably puffed a cigar while saying it. The natural reaction is one of disgust; the man just broke the sport, after all. Once the George Steinbrenner spending of the 90s and 00s gave way to the few remaining albatrosses left in MLB—enjoy retirement, Albert Pujols—teams finally saw through the free-agent haze, seeing it as fools gold. Contracts became wiser. It took four months for people to realize signing Manny Machado was a good move. An occasional Stephen Strasburg or Anthony Rendon wave will rock the boat, but its aim is true; smart teams are too savvy to crash. A man bombarding in, guns blazing, to sign a historic amount of elite free agents in reaction to losing to the Padres in the NLDS sets off alarms. This isn’t how teams are supposed to act. As we all know so well, franchises are supposed to Know Their Role, sign Their Guys—an appropriate amount of them—then play each other under a gentlemanly façade that this is The Best They Can Do. The Yankees stopped making the A’s their development team because it became uncouth in the public eye. That hurts business. People must somehow believe in a fair baseball league. The state approving one’s ability to drive coincides with the precise moment a rational being realizes that baseball is dementedly unfair, but the game’s beauty has tranced us all; we’re content with rationalizing the immense inequality as long as the product supplies its thrills. Cohen’s ultimate sin is that he would rather play a different game: if spending rules exist solely as tax, then why would you do anything other than spend as much money as you have? Who cares about spending $30 million a year when it takes 33 such contracts to hit $1 billion—a scratch against any owner’s vast wealth? Are his actions good for baseball? In the immediate future, no. Cohen’s Mets will win a thousand games in 2023 and—with permission from the baseball gods—bulldoze other powerhouses with such ease that it’ll be a joke to tell across generations. The Dodgers are speed bumps when Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander are your 1-2 punch, and your lineup has Mark Canha hitting 8th. Not even one of those good speed bumps either; they’re that worn-down crumble someone installed in a school parking lot 40 years ago that hasn’t received a fix since all funding goes to a new scoreboard for a perpetual 3-9 football team. But Cohen could be in for a long-term play; while he sees his actions as buying great players to add to his human trading card deck, he’s also applying pressure to other owners. This is the age of social media. Teams are more visible than ever. Any average dolt can hurl insults directly at a franchise’s social media account, bringing them closer to the people’s will than in the medieval times when talking with the king was impossible. Fans don’t have enough time to affect this off-season, but who knows what kind of weird pressure points they’ll press when a team lowballs a free agent in the age of a team possessing a nearly half-billion-dollar payroll. Or teams may ignore the noise until their bottom-line falls. Franchises are funny like that. This isn’t Cohen’s fault. Any of us poors would love to own our favorite team, churning through cartoon piles of money while our net worth remains iron-clad. The only thing Cohen broke was tradition; Baseball created spending rules based on inequality, added new ones for eye wash, then relied on their closed community of ownership to keep others in line so that the veneer remained intact. An outsider stomped on those rules; it’s up to baseball to react. View full article

There's a good chance that at least one of these players will find time on the Twins next season; read about what they can bring to the table. Image courtesy of Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports Here we are in mid-December. The Rule 5 draft has passed, and reports over the past week have shown the the Twins have made some minor-league signings. Here are some notes on those who have signed to this point, at least the ones that we have heard. No one gets overly excited about minor-league signings, but as we have seen in recent years, injuries and Covid have forced the Twins to play a lot of players. So these are not meaningless signings. C-Jair Camargo The one returning player to re-sign with the Twins. Camargo came to the organization in the Kenta Maeda/Brusdar Graterol trade before the 2020 season. Camargo split his season between Cedar Rapids and Wichita. He is a good athlete with a strong arm. He doesn't like to walk, and he has some swing-and-miss, but he has shown a lot of power 1B/DH-Tyler White Tyler White's name may ring a tiny bell; the first baseman collected over 800 plate appearances for the Houston Astros between 2016 and 2019, earning a World Series ring while slashing .241/.319/.420. White’s MLB career peaked with an excellent 2018 campaign where he collected 1.7 fWAR over 66 games, buoying his career total of 1.2. After a trade to the Dodgers in 2019, the Western Carolina University product failed to recapture his previous magic, bouncing between the KBO and three minor league systems in his search for a home. The 32-year-old White is your prototypical minor league free agent, but he did own a .900 OPS with Buffalo in 2021, perhaps hinting that his best baseball is not yet gone. RHP-José De León Finally, The Twins have acquired José De León. A crucial part of the Great Brian Dozier Trade Talks of 2016, De León is now, unfortunately, the tale of a pitching prospect gone awry. De León owns 48 MLB innings scattered across five seasons; his 18 1/3 frames in 2021 represent his highest single-season total. The culprit? Injuries. The Southern University product often endures extended bouts without time on the mound, never coming close to hitting his career high in innings set between A+ and AA in 2015 (114 ⅓.) De León’s stuff is good, so if he remains on the mound, he could boost a pitching staff always needing an extra jolt. RHP-Carlos Luna The Panamian native, Carlos Luna, crosses the border, trekking from Milwaukee’s system to Minnesota’s. Luna joined the Brewers as a 17-year-old, pitching deep in the recesses of Rookie Ball in 2014 and 2015 before missing all of 2016 and 2017 with (presumably) an injury. The 26-year-old stayed knocking on the door, putting up adequate numbers just shy of worthy of a cup of coffee; he pitched 109 1/3 innings at AA last season. Luna’s baseball peak occurred when he netted the final 12 outs of a combined no-hitter in 2021. RHP-Patrick Murphy A member of the Blue Jays and Nationals organizations, Patrick Murphy tossed 39 2/3 middling innings in the majors—mostly in 2021—and looks to start fresh with the Twins. Murphy owns a 96 MPH fastball, which renders any more analysis unnecessary. It’s unlikely that Murphy will suddenly learn command, but minor-league deals are pure upside moves by nature, so if he does, then the Twins can reap the rewards of an effective multi-inning reliever. Murphy punched out 26.1% of batters at AAA last season. View full article

I think it's the tricky fact that he was co-director of baseball operations and then assistant general manager during the period Carrasco pitched well, but who knows for certain

A Carlos Correa-sized hole now exists in the Twins' payroll, can they look to the trade market to fill it? Image courtesy of © Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports Through trading, the Twins can avoid convincing players to sign with them and instead use forced employment to remove consent from the equation. Does Javier Báez actually want to play in Minnesota? Too bad! The Tigers wanted some prospects, so off you go. Remember to pack some blankets. Let’s look at a few potential targets. This author would like to remind the readers that he did predict the Kyle Farmer trade, so either he’s more clairvoyant than previously understood, or the Twins front office solicits advice from a baseball fan site. For all our sake, let’s hope it’s the former. Javier Báez The Rudy Gobert of baseball, Báez remains a slick shortstop whose offensive methods lead to existentially draining whiffs but ultimately competent batting results. Báez secretly lopped a few points off his strikeout rate in 2022, but his famous power disappeared as well, and the Tigers’ sudden free-fall from a decent 2021 leaves them holding a piece they may prefer to trade. How convenient. Báez is likely to age poorly—have you ever heard of a free swinger who remained in the game well into their 30s—so swallowing five more seasons with a $120 million price tag is an overly aggressive attempt at a rebound. Still, he’ll probably be available, and the list of potential employees for the Twins shrinks daily. Carlos Carrasco In their efforts to sign every baseball player under the sun, Lex Luthor Steve Cohen’s Mets created an expensive, crowded starting rotation that may leave Carlos Carrasco out of the equation. This isn’t just speculation: the Mets are entertaining potential trades for their righty. Carrasco joining the Twins would be a fun reunion of sorts; Derek Falvey oversaw Carrasco’s growth into an excellent yet oddly underrated starter during his extended, fruitful peak in Cleveland. Carrasco has remained effective, shedding a handful of injuries (along with a frightening bout of leukemia in 2019) on his way to a good campaign with enviable peripherals (3.45 xFIP, 20th best amongst starters with 150 innings pitches.) The soon-to-be 36-year-old will receive $14 million next season before hitting the free-agent market. Usually, this author would fulfill the rule of threes and write about another fantastic third option that the Twins could acquire in a trade. That isn’t happening. Looking through the remaining “big” contracts yields a cruel reality: Minnesota has few options. Teams have become wiser these days; George Steinbrenner handing out millions like Costco handing out free samples doesn’t happen anymore, and franchises are less likely to anchor themselves to a truly brutal contract. For the Twins, this isn’t great, as the remaining contracts are albatrosses that no one should touch—Anthony Rendon and Stephen Strasburg —while the middle tier consists of reasonable deals that teams can afford to keep on their books. The pickings are slim. There's a difference between wisely absorbing a contract a team in a different situation would prefer to rid themselves of and tying an anvil to your ankle before taking a dip in the ocean. There are a few deals, mainly Rockies players, but predicting anything with Colorado is like arguing with a cat. You aren’t going to win and everyone will think you look silly. You could trade for Chris Sale and hope this is the year he rebounds, but it's best to leave headaches to your opponents. Minnesota remains in an awkward position; if they desire to inflate its payroll through trades, its choices are a Russian Roulette of old, injured, or old-and-inured players whose glory days last existed before the pandemic. Any useful deal would be complex or non-sensical. It’s a tragic grave, but it’s one that they dug for themselves by focusing their energy on Carlos Correa. Of course, they could always trade for Josh Donaldson. See some overpriced players that the Twins should consider? Share them below. View full article

The Twins recently won the 5th overall pick; how much fruit has that slot borne in MLB history? Image courtesy of © Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports For the Twins, the history of the 5th overall pick is short and straightforward: Nick Gordon and B.J. Garbe. Garbe—an outfielder drafted out of Moses Lake, Washington, in 1999—quickly flamed out in the minors with a bat made of balsa wood. Gordon, however, scrapped through some disappointing minor league seasons to break out with a 113 OPS+ on the Twins last season. He looks to be a future consistent big league ballplayer. Side ramble: that Moses Lake team in 1999 also featured future Twin and negative WAR enthusiast Ryan Doumit who went in the 2nd round that year. Jason Cooper, an outfielder also on that team, eschewed a 2nd round selection from the Phillies for Stanford and eventually ended up with the St. Paul Saints. As someone who has frequently driven through that town, Moses Lake is worthwhile only for the gas you need to make it beyond Spokane. To have three legitimate MLB prospects is unheard of. What a weird time. For major league history as a whole, the 5th overall pick contains fascinating pitchers and hitters, names whose baseball influence flows into the present day and who are necessary to tell baseball’s story. There are three MVP winners, two Cy Young winners, and six players with more than 40 rWAR. But, oddly, no player drafted 5th overall has made the hall of fame. Let’s look at the list of players with more than 10 rWAR: That top six is as strong of a collection of players as you’ll find; add them up, and you have 4 MVP awards, 1 Cy Young award, 28 All-Star selections, 18 Silver Sluggers, 11 Gold Gloves, and 3 Rookie of Year awards. Again, no player resides in the hall—although Dale Murphy owns a strong case, and Buster Posey will surely enter when he’s eligible—but these are all memorable and great players. Taking off the nostalgia glasses and looking at only recent picks tells a far less impressive tale: Kyle Tucker is good! Very good, in fact. Drew Pomeranz has been inconsistent, but an 11-season MLB career is far from disappointing. Then, errr, Jonathan India had a great rookie season in 2021! And Kyle Wright finally broke out in 2022! Alright, it’s a mixed class; there are two firmly established big league regulars with a sprinkling of talented players held back by a few flaws they have yet to shed. If you want to be optimistic, every player drafted 5th overall between 2004 and 2019—except for Matt Hobgood in 2009—has at least made the majors, so there’s a good chance the player the Twins draft will impact the big-league club in some fashion. While this article is fun, it means almost nothing; invisible forces don’t grip the 5th overall pick, cursing whomever the Twins take to be a Hall of Very Good player. Whoever that player is, their story is up to them, not based on a hex placed by Bubba Starling or Kyle Zimmer. There’s a good chance that player ends up a quality, everyday ballplayer for the Twins, and that’s something to be excited for. View full article

This division does know that the off-season started, right? Image courtesy of © Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports Royals The Royals have remained deadly quiet this off-season, not even venturing into “well, maybe he has some potential” waters like they’ve done so often in years past. They’ll likely sign a few low-tier players—they are seldom entirely stuck in neutral—but none of their moves will be of the impact variety. Zack Greinke is Kansas City’s lone free agent of note. The Royals are stuck in an endless rebuild, one that hasn’t seen a season above .500 since their small-ball 2015 team shockingly dominated MLB. They recently cleaned house in the front office; long-time executive and pornography hater Dayton Moore received the boot, and J.J. Piccolo took over the reins as GM in September. Bobby Witt Jr. spearheads a youth movement more promising than any of their previous engagements with young talent, but they are probably still years away from seriously competing for a division title. Tigers The Tigers, fresh off a disappointing 2022 season, have made a few periphery moves. The team reunited with their prodigal son, LHP Matthew Boyd, as this might be the season where his immense swing-and-miss stuff meets home run results that aren’t faint-worthy. The team also traded stalwart reliever Joe Jiménez to the Braves. The return was what you would expect for one year of a solid bullpen arm, perhaps illuminating that Detroit is unsure of its potential. The Tigers also cleaned house recently; Al Avila—the kind of guy to trade his own son—packed his bags, and the team handed control to Giants product Scott Harris. A.J. Hinch is still an excellent manager, but the team’s porous depth and perpetually underperforming farm system left the team out to dry when they needed help the most. As it turns out, Javier Báez and Eduardo Rodriguez are excellent complimentary pieces, not stand-out stars themselves. When there’s no one to compliment, you get the 2022 Tigers. It's unlikely that they will compete in 2023, but they did win a not-embarrassing total of 77 games in 2021, so maybe some potential exists for Detroit. White Sox Guardians Cleveland—the incumbent AL Central champions—have made the most substantial move of any team in the division, inking Josh Bell to a two-year contract worth $33 million. The Guardians aren’t hiding their philosophy; they’ll spend on an occasional luxury piece (Edwin Encarnación, anyone?) but will otherwise stick to internally developing the sickest pitchers you’ve ever seen while hitting just enough to win some ballgames. Michael Baumann covered Bell perfectly on Fangraphs, and I have nothing to add to his analysis, so read his piece if you want to learn more about that signing. The good news is that Cleveland is probably done with their off-season; it would be genuinely shocking if they made another move of a similar caliber, as quality-over-quantity tends to be their modus operandi. They rarely stray from that blueprint. The Twins have work to do—like signing a single free agent—but the rest of the division doesn’t offer much of a threat. The Guardians are the only real competitors, and while they’ve made a significant move, the Twins possess the talent to challenge their authority in 2023. View full article

He's probably more valuable to the Twins than any other team. Find out why. Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports Perhaps no Twins player draws more ire than Max Kepler; the long-time right-fielder has disappointed over his eight-season MLB career as—with the exception of 2019—his offensive numbers fall below his potential. Season after season, the German product produces a .225/.317/.422 line, flashes an offensive profile with upside and fails to fulfill that promise in the following season. It’s madness. Naturally, the restless fans remain exhausted. They don’t boo—this isn’t New York, after all—but if there were some sort of passive-aggressive method to indicate disapproval, Minnesota fans would embrace it. Instead, we read yearly articles detailing all the teams interested in Kepler, watch him enter the season as a Twin, and endure the same style of season he has played since 2016. It’s madness. But maybe the Twins should hold onto Kepler for one more year. It’s crazy—madness, even—but it could make sense. One of the strongest arguments for Kepler’s exit rests on the internal options. The Twins possess about 20,000 left-handed hitting outfielders capable of catching a flyball at an adequate level, rendering Kepler’s skillset redundant in a sea of similarity. Those options may be weaker than we believe; neither Alex Kirilloff nor Trevor Larnach has played more than 80 games in an MLB season, so far always succumbing to an injury that cuts their year short. Matt Wallner may have the bat, but his outfield flopping netted him -4 DRS over just 138 2/3 MLB innings, 14th worst 91 players with 130 innings in right field. DRS is a cumulative stat. That’s bad. Nick Gordon may be best suited for the role, but he is more valuable as a jack-of-all-trades positionless weapon, not a locked-in everyday player. Kepler, on the other hand, is an elite defender in right field and can cover center at an above-average level, perhaps not an easy skill to find with Target Field’s unusual characteristics in that section of the field. Maybe he’ll never break through the 100 wRC+ glass ceiling, but he’ll also never outright bust with the bat. And, sigh, there might be optimism for Kepler’s bat. WARNING. DISCUSSION OF MAX KEPLER’S BATTED BALL DATA BELOW It’s folly to analyze Kepler’s hitting; his BABIP baffles the wisest of sabermetricians, and this author swore an oath years ago never to attempt to understand it. More innovative writers have tried and failed, and there’s a good chance the answer to his mysterious hit tool lies wherever Jimmy Hoffa is buried. But let’s go. Kepler’s under-the-hood numbers improved drastically in 2022; his max exit velocity reached 113.8 MPH, his xwOBA stood in the 74th percentile of all batters, and he cut his already-low strikeout rate while holding steady with his walks. His Baseball Savant page has enough red to drive Joseph McCarthy crazy. Even in his weirdest batting seasons, Kepler’s batted-ball data never looked this pristine; there’s a chance he truly experienced bad luck in 2022. If those improvements are here to stay—it would be weird if he suddenly fell off at 30 years old—the new limits to shifting combined with his changes in 2022 may finally unluck his offensive profile. Remember all those times he hit a sharp groundball directly into short right field for an out? Those days are gone; instead, he’ll earn a well-fought single for his efforts, not an out. It makes sense to deal Kepler; the team has plenty of backup options, and if the team is pinching its pennies to sign Carlos Correa and a top-tier starter, Kepler is the obvious candidate for heaving. The logic is there. But there are worse things than having a guaranteed solid player on your roster, and Kepler’s defensive acumen will be difficult to replace. Maybe this sounds like Stockholm Syndrome, but Kepler should stay. View full article

The longtime backstop took to Twitter on Friday, announcing the end of his 12-year MLB career. Image courtesy of Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports Not all positions include glory. While shortstops can dive their way into our hearts, and outfielders can sprint into highlight reels, the catcher crouches behind the plate, methodically managing the game for 27 outs daily. It’s a professional job that requires a professional temperament. Jason Castro had precisely that. Castro represented a new shift in the Twins’ organization; the Stanford product signed a three-year, $24.5 million deal following the 2016 deal, signaling a move toward a meticulous appreciation for invisible benefits. It was the first deal Derek Falvey and Thad Levine consummated as Twins executives. Castro wasn’t going to hit—his only notable offensive season came in 2013—but he could work with pitchers, helping them become the best versions of themselves while earning little credit. The team felt his impact immediately, losing nearly half a run off their team ERA with primarily the same pitching staff. Youngsters like Taylor Rogers and José Berríos enjoyed MLB success, while Ervin Santana captured Cy Young votes. The 2017 Twins were odd, but Castro’s steady presence helped guide the team through an unusual trade deadline into their first playoff game since Target Field’s inaugural season. After an injury cut Castro’s 2018 short, he returned to play a role on a Twins team that looked different than before. The 2019 Twins pounded the ball at a historic rate, and with breakout catcher Mitch Garver flourishing, Castro’s role on the team diminished. He caught just 78 games and hit for a modest .232/.332/.435 line that vanished in a sea of slugging. Still, his 13 homers helped the team edge out the Yankees in the home run race, netting them the record for homers hit in a season with a solo shot off a familiar face. Castro transitioned to a journeyman following his stint with the Twins. The Angels and Padres enjoyed his services before he returned to Houston, playing in 100 games in his final two seasons, winning a World Series ring along the way. While Castro doesn't have any plans yet for a post-playing career, David Laurila wrote that he would be open to an coaching position revolved around analytics, something that could bring him back into the fold in Minnesota. "I haven’t given much thought to what will be next," said Castro. "...but analytics are something I have a lot of experience with. I’ve learned a lot, starting from almost nothing, over the course of my career. There’s been a huge evolution, especially over the past six or seven years. So, we’ll see.” View full article

Carlos Correa and the star pitchers have earned their proper attention, but what about the periphery players? Today, we will examine why the Twins might want to trade Jorge Polanco. Image courtesy of Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports As the longest-tenured Twins player—he rubbed elbows with Kendrys Morales while sipping his cup of coffee in 2014—Polanco’s presence provided continuity during the great team overhaul following 2016. Rather than start from scratch, the new decision-makers earmarked Polanco (and Max Kepler) as answers to the problem, not sources of the malady, and both players signed extensions before the 2019 season. Polanco represents the best and worst of Twins position players under the Falvey regime: a skilled OBP and power threat with a worrisome lack of defensive ability whose nagging injuries have capped his upside. His .272/.339/.455 slash line since 2018 makes him the envy of the middle infield ball—those players have hit for a collective .257/.318/.409 over the same period. Yet, despite a move to an easier position, defensive stats remain unamused with Polanco’s glove, constantly ranking him as a poor defender. Looking around the league, that style of position-less player has fallen out of fashion; the Houston Astros employ a litany of two-way stars who can hit as well as they can field, and the Dodgers only sign a player if they can catch, man shortstop, glide in the outfield, and announce in a pinch if Joe Davis catches a cold. Yordan Álvarez is an exception, but teams tend to ignore fielding gaffes when you’re hitting at a near Bondsian level. Despite the defensive issues, Polanco’s contract helps buoy his value. That deal from 2019 remains in effect, and assuming that a team will jump at the opportunity to pick up his $12 million club option for 2025, he is effectively good for three years of control at $30 million. That’s an attractive price tag. A team like like the Cubs might happily deal quality prospects or equivalent major-league talent to net Polanco’s offensive consistency for just $10 million a season. In what we could call “The Edouard Julien Influence,” the Twins may already have a major-league-caliber starter waiting in the wings. Julien spent his 2022 regular season smoking pitches at AA before finding an extra gear in the Arizona Fall League, ramping up his batting to lead the whole darn league in OPS (1.249). Yes, that number is correct. He also stole six bases without a misstep, just for giggles. Minnesota understood his value and added him to the 40-man roster, protecting him from other conniving teams in the Rule-5 draft. Julien’s glove is as detrimental as Polanco’s, which negates the previous defensive argument, but his bat has a good chance at reaching the same plateau. Or, just as well, the Twins could move Luis Arraez back to his original position, ending the hilarious adventures in having a 5' 10" first baseman with 14 career home runs. The savings matter. Re-signing Carlos Correa—beyond being the right move—eats up a significant portion of the theoretical payroll cap, enough to make squeezing in a Carlos Rodón type impossible. If the Twins want both a star shortstop and a starting pitcher better than Matt Shoemaker, they need to diligently purge their books, and the Gio Urshela trade does not create enough leeway. It would be a tough move; few enjoy seeing an old friend go, especially when they are still productive, but Minnesota needs to engage in ruthless efficiency if they want to move forward into the highest tier of teams. View full article

For the umpteenth time in Twins history, the beginning of free agency opens up one dominating question: will the Twins acquire a top-tier starting pitcher? Cavemen have etched the question on walls, and if one listens closely enough, the stars cry out the same chorus, lamenting Minnesota’s lack of elite starters. Image courtesy of Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports The Twins have yet to answer with an unquestionable “yes.” Kenta Maeda was close, but he disappointed in 2021 before undergoing Tommy John surgery; Sonny Gray nearly reached the “elite” platform, but nicks and bruises have limited him to a solidly secondary tier; Tyler Mahle faltered before earning a chance to prove himself. In each case, the pitcher flashed potential, perhaps hinting that an elite starter existed underneath their skin, but none have yet fulfilled that potential. The issue nags on. Minnesota’s starting rotation looks good enough if you don’t squint too hard and if someone turns off the injury setting, but it’s not a squad that compares favorably to the collection of arms elite teams like the Astros can boast. Part of the problem is development; the Twins have lagged behind the best teams in turning their homegrown draft picks into feared arms, and they have not cracked the code in revealing the true potential of other teams’ perpetual under-performers. They tried with Chris Paddack—perhaps they almost succeeded—but his elbow broke again, and the Twins could only claim a failed gamble. With the exception of Ryan Pressly, they haven’t become a victim of pitching pick-pocketing, but their best heist to date is Joe Ryan. As for those draft picks, José Berríos pitched some of the finest seasons this side of Johan Santana, but he never embraced his ace potential, instead finding respectable success as an inconsistent yet talented #2. No other draft pick compares to him. A flurry of Terry Ryan prospects—most notably Stephen Gonsalves, Fernando Romero, and Adalberto Mejía—tried and failed to succeed; Twins pitchers drafted by the new regime have yet to impact the franchise. The team turned to free agency. Michael Pineda gave Minnesota a few quality years, but the team has primarily followed a distinct pattern of whiffing on the big names—most notably Yu Darvish and Zack Wheeler—while signing cheap starters who performed like cheap starters. Maybe one could claim 2019 Martín Pérez as a win, but doing so proves how fruitless the Twins have been with starters in free agency under Derek Falvey; a playoff team needs more than a lopsided 1.9 fWAR season from a pitcher who didn’t take the mound in the postseason that year. Until the Twins break the mold, Andrew Heaney is the best they can do. Heaney is a perfect Twin: a troubled starter with great stuff and a devastating penchant for giving up jackhammer levels of loud contact. Heaney finally realized his strikeout potential in 2022, punching out 35.5% of hitters in a dominating season that culminated in a 3.10 ERA, even better peripherals, and just 14 starts due to a variety of health problems. Injuries wilted his excellence, and the Dodgers could only squeeze six innings out of Heaney in two outings, limiting him to just 1.1 fWAR despite the great pitching. In the current free agent context—one Nick Nelson noted could be especially troublesome for a team looking for an ace—the Twins’ likely option will be praying for Heaney’s health. They could sign Carlos Rodón, but their history says they won’t do that. If—probably, when—the best arms sign elsewhere, Minnesota will look at Heaney, talk themselves into his incredible upside, and bet against reason that this is the year he finally stays healthy. View full article

For real, what are they waiting for? Image courtesy of Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports Some moves require abstraction, an extended philosophical debate to understand how a player will fit in with their new team. Many articles will attempt to understand this. Beyond the apparent positional need on hand, one’s skill set, cost, and clubhouse fit are all crucial considerations, potentially providing as much impact as their on-field play. There is no such issue with Omar Narvaez. The Twins have stepped as close as possible to revealing their interest in Narváez as Derek Falvey will ever admit. After implying The Great Gary Sánchez Experiment flopped, Falvey—as smothered in his lawyer-talk sauce as possible—said we should “probably anticipate” the Twins looking at a catcher platoon with Ryan Jeffers. “Ryan had a really good year against left-handed pitching,” he continued. “That’s a good sign. I’m not saying he’s exclusively a platoon (player), but there is an opportunity to match up going forward.” Narvaez is the only opportunity. Seriously, Willson Contreras and Christian Vazquez—the two other best free agent catchers—hit from the right side of the batter's box, while Sean Murphy—the next former Athletic and biggest name in the backstop trade arena—also enjoys right-handed privileges. Any of those three players would be great additions, but their overlapping righty-ness with Jeffers would negate platoon efficiency and the Twins under Falvey love efficiency. Beyond his left-handed capabilities, Narváez fits the mold of a Twins catcher: a framing expert who can provide enough jolt with the bat to make you mutter “not bad for a catcher” more than a handful of times a season. His offense slipped in 2022–a .305 slugging can never look good—but his bat failed him in 2020 as well, and it recovered for an adequate .266/.342/.402 line in 2021. Even if this dead cat never bounces, a defensive specialist in Jason Castro’s mold is far from a roster curse. Jeffers has yet to play with such a teammate in his Twins career. Since 2021 when the Twins anointed him as the future, the 25-year-old awkwardly matched with the similarly skilled Mitch Garver, the fun, yet limited Willians Astudillo, the offensively dreadful Ben Rortvedt, the aforementioned Sánchez, and the Wario-shaped Sandy León. All of those players, ranging from poor matches to overwhelmed in an important skill critical to winning baseball games, fail to compliment Jeffers in the way Narváez can. It’s not exactly the smooth 2019 duo of Castro and Garver, but it could come close. Other baseball minds agree in the combination; the Fangraphs blurb about Narváez states that “...at this stage, he’s a backup catcher best paired with a righty-hitting starter, which might relieve some of the physical burden of catching from both parties and create more overall production at the position.” It’s like they were thinking of the Twins while writing. Of course, the Twins must involve themselves in negotiating, politicking, and a great deal of boring phone calls about trades and signings that never happen before they can admit defeat and simply sign a necessary player. Throw in the Carlos Correa Conundrum reserving the majority of Minnesota’s attention, and their periphery will likely remain blocked until Falvey is sick of hearing Scott Boras’ awful jokes for eight hours a day. Once that happens, the Twins should probably sign Omar Narváez. It makes too much sense, right? View full article