Matt Braun

One of the lessons my father passed down to me was when I was younger was: “It’s a marathon, not a sprint.” Of course, this wasn’t some ancient monkish knowledge pertaining to life; slowing down, you crazy child, or any of that: he was talking about drinking. It’s the most valuable information I’ve ever learned. Image courtesy of Rhona Wise-USA TODAY Sports Recently I wrapped up an off-season writing project: hand-writing a post-game report for every game the Twins played in 2022. All 162 matches. No exceptions. Beyond the insanity of it all—and it truly was a nightmare at times, with evenings of madness laughing into the void—these games offered a quiet consistency; whispering between the outs and runs; giving hints about the nature of the game that strike deep into baseball’s core. Patterns emerged. It would be foolish to proclaim that I now carry the weight of secret baseball knowledge, but allow me to explain some of what I saw. Unlike most other sports, baseball isn’t a test of skill as much as it is a battle of endurance; ask any manager in spring training and you’ll hear a gorgeous harmony of health, with references to players and the preservations of their fragile ligaments almost meaning more than the games themselves. Today can be lost; tomorrow remains in sight. It’s this truth—or, perhaps truism—that guides the sport. 162 games remain undeterred, played whether ready or not. Sure, a team must focus on building their victories at some point, but no one remembers the April losses if they begat September wins, and those wins can only happen when the team is healthy and at full strength. This was a point the 2022 Twins missed. Their acceptable 50-44 first-half record evaporated into a 28-40 second-half slog, emphasized by a brutal 11-22 stretch following the month of August. They finished third in the division and earned no postseason credit. That team didn’t intend to collapse, as no wise franchise predicts their own demise, but it’s clear that a squad’s true ability can often only reveal itself late, far late in the season, not in the soggy months of April and May. But, perhaps that team was not yet as lukewarm as we think; many—and I do mean many—of their losses came via late-inning blowups, specifically against the Cleveland Guardians, specifically with Emilio Pagán meddling in some capacity. Indeed, an astounding eight defeats occurred when the Guardians happened to score just one more run than the Twins. Minnesota only won one such match: a 1-0 squeaker on June 23rd that apparently just missed the baseball gods’ attention. Maybe it’s no surprise that the team ended with a slightly positive Pythagorean win/loss record of 82-80. This isn’t to say that the Twins will happen to win more games as fortune rubbernecks their victories, handing them a more equitable total of near wins in 2023: baseball is still built on disorder. It could very well happen that Cleveland again wins entirely too many games via close calls, and we all spend the offseason huffing at the injustice of it all; the sport is funny like that. As I wrote more about the season, it became clear that the 2022 Twins were really the 2018 Twins in disguise. A crappy disguise, but one nonetheless. That 2018 squad, fresh off a 2017 playoff appearance, never got it together, trudging through months of mediocre ball before detonating by trading Brian Dozier, Eduardo Escobar , and Ryan Pressly in the hopes that grass would be greener in the future. They finished the year with 78 wins, just as the team last year did. Things did improve, as losing 14 (!!!) games on walk-offs isn’t something that tends to happen twice; the record-setting home run total the following year probably helped as well. This is all to say that baseball is a freaky sport. We (over)analyze minute details, theorizing matchups and breakouts just to shrug our shoulders when Sandy Alcantara goes to town on our team because, well, that’s how it goes sometimes. You can draw out statistics as long as you want, but if the other guys’ hits are falling more than yours, you’re probably going to lose. Looking at the broad, over-reaching movements is great and informative, but those shifts don’t occur in a single-game environment: that is still left for the messy, gross randomness of life to run wild. And, because us humans are emotional creatures, it’s easy to get swept up in the flurry, angry at today because we can’t yet see tomorrow. So get mad if you want to; it’s your fanship to do what you please with, but know that this game isn’t a day, or a week, or a month: it’s a full season—162 games where everything wacky and absurd happens in the details, ultimately only becoming clear as the final few matches fall in September. They may lose today, and tomorrow, and the day after that; but the season remains young and inexperienced, not yet sure what it wants to be at this stage of its life. It will reveal itself at some point—it always does—but that time is far from this point, and worrying about it will only grey your hairs. So—as my father would like to say—always remember that it’s a marathon, not a sprint. View full article

The Kernels have a shortstop duo and a decision. Image courtesy of William Parmeter First, let’s meet Noah Miller. You probably already know him; after terrorizing Wisconsin prep pitchers with a .608 senior-season batting average, the brother of current MLB-er, Owen Miller, joined the Twins after being selected with the 36th pick in the 2021 MLB draft. A brief foray in rookie ball begat a mixed 2022 with Fort Myers, where he demonstrated excellent discipline at the plate and absolutely no extra-base authority whatsoever. He slugged under .300. Even Nick Punto thought he could use some pop. However, Fangraphs called him a near “complete model darling” in their evaluation prior to the 2022 season, and Miller remains one of Minnesota’s most promising prospects. Next, let’s meet Jose Salas. You probably already know him; after splitting time between Jupiter and Beloit as a super-youngster, Salas packed his bags, joining the Twins organization as a secondary—yet still important—piece in the Luis Arraez deal. His 2022 performance was unimpressive as all 19-year-olds are generally unimpressive, but Baseball Prospectus considers him a Top 100 prospect, and Fangraphs nearly placed him on their list heading into the 2022 season. The issue here is one of repetition: both players are shortstops; both will start the season with the Cedar Rapids Kernels. Given the dearth of positional resources at play—there’s only one shortstop position, as far as I can remember—manager Brian Dinkelman will have an interesting problem on his hands: do you give Miller, the player with the better defensive chops the majority of playing time, or do you hand the reins to Salas, hoping that some extra in-game reps beef up his skill enough to push him into “guaranteed shortstop” territory? The most obvious answer would be that each player will man a variety of positions, switching between infield spots in a fast-paced Abbott and Costello sketch where you’re never quite sure what is on second on any given day. Salas has minor-league experience at second and third base anyway, and while Miller does not, he could very likely move spots given his already impressive command of shortstop—the most range-testing position of the infield. Doing this would ensure playing time for the duo at shortstop, and give each player reps around the diamond, hopefully evolving them into “positionless” infielders, but in a good prime Marwin Gonzalez kind of way. Perhaps the team chooses to keep things simple, giving Miller the position while Salas mans spots on either side of him. Or—and this is where things get really spicy—the Twins could opt to favor Salas at shortstop, instead giving Miller the chance to grow his defensive portfolio while the lesser glove-worker hones his craft. It’s a little weird, I know, but if you could reasonably assume that Miller can stay at short—as much as you can assume anything in baseball—it may make more sense to hand the position to someone else with the knowledge that Miller doesn’t need the time. When more freely available, Minnesota could then place Miller back at shortstop, allowing him to continue his outstanding work undisturbed. We’ve seen before, as well, that minor league positions are really just suggestions, not a cemented promise for a player. Alex Bregman played nearly every game at shortstop before joining the Astros, where he met one Carlos Correa and immediately shifted a few feet closer to the foul line. Minnesota’s own Nick Gordon played fewer than 30 innings in the outfield before travelling to Minneapolis; he now owns almost 1,000 major-league frames in the grass. And, not to add more to Dinkelman's plate, but Ben Ross, Tanner Schobel, Keoni Cavaco, and Ernie Yake are all capable infielders as well, leaving six players to account for four spots on the diamond. So who knows? The Kernels open their season on Thursday, but it will take a few months before their plan becomes clear. Whether they go with Miller or Salas as their primary shortstop is up to the future to decide. View full article

Having Jose Salas and Noah Miller on the same team will be interesting. I tend to see Miller receiving more time at shortstop but perhaps Salas will need it to improve his chops. Should be something to keep an eye on.

Not sure why the Saints didn't try this yesterday. Image courtesy of Rob Thompson TRANSACTIONS None Saints Sentinel St. Paul 6, Toledo 1 Box Score Aaron Sanchez: 3 1/3 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 4 K HR: Chris Williams (1), Tony Wolters (1), Ryan LaMarre (1), Matt Wallner (1) Multi-hit games: Kyle Garlick (2-for-4), Chris Williams (2-for-5, HR, 2 R, RBI) It was a day of homers. Despite Toledo’s best efforts to keep the ball in the park—and they tried nearly everything—the Saints darkened the sky with baseballs, swatting four home runs on their way to besting the Mud Hens. The sources varied from the predictable—Chris Williams and Matt Wallner—to the downright shocking: Tony Wolters’ solo shot was his first homer since August 30th, 2021. Ryan LaMarre’s bomb exited his bat at 110.1 MPH. Truly absurd power from Wallner; he appeared to fall over himself while swinging and still hit the ball nearly 400 feet. Between the animal hide rain lived a deeply appreciative Aaron Sanchez. The Saints’ starter worked inefficiently, walking a trio of batters on his path towards 10 netted outs. Dereck Rodriguez was summoned to bridge the gap between the early and late frames. Rodriguez suffered from a similar affliction, allowing a pair of free passes over 2 2/3 innings, but he performed well enough to pass the lead to the late-inning specialists. Trevor Megill continued the shutout and did so with overpowering success, striking out five over two shutout frames with a lone walk serving as his only blemish. Brock Stewart closed the game with a scoreless inning and three strikeouts. Old friends Akil Baddoo and Matt Wisler played for Toledo. Baddoo walked once in four plate appearances while Wisler pitched a scoreless inning. Justyn-Henry Malloy is the best prospect on the Mud Hens. He walked and singled in four plate appearances. TWINS DAILY PLAYERS OF THE DAY Twins Daily Minor League Pitcher of the Day – Trevor Megill Twins Daily Minor League Hitter of the Day – Chris Williams PROSPECT SUMMARY Here’s a look at how the Twins Daily Top 20 Twins Prospects performed: #5 - Edouard Julien (St. Paul) - 0-5, 4 K #11 - Matt Wallner (St. Paul) - 1-4, HR, R, RBI, BB, 2 K SUNDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS Toledo @ St. Paul (1:05 PM) - RHP Randy Dobnak View full article

Shoot, guess I was thinking of The River

Or, read entirely too many words on numbers that may or may not matter. Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports As our wonderful contributor Matthew Trueblood once wrote, “pitching really is two distinct and disparate tasks: pitching to lefties, and pitching to righties.” A starter like Sonny Gray may exhibit multiple personalities in his craft depending on the platoon; for relievers, the game is a little different. While a starter must vary their method of attack when facing a sub-optimal matchup, bullpen arms can brute force their way through three outs, relying on one of their overwhelming strengths with the occasional changeup, just for fun. Specialty is the name of the game. Platoons—whether said reliever is facing a lefty or righty—stands as the most apparent input in this equation, but we can dig a little deeper, observe a more granular strategy with modern relievers. We saw glimpses of this new-fangled decision-making process when Robert Orr of Baseball Prospectus revealed that the 2021 Giants selected pinch hitters based on swing path and opposing pitch shape. That team won 107 games with a team of Milk Duds and microplastic. It seems the plan may have worked. What if we reversed the idea? How could a manager manipulate his bullpen to its most ideal form? This was the question that popped into my head when Rocco Baldelli first called upon his bullpen on Thursday. He beckoned Caleb Thielber to do away with some lefties, but he then had to decide whether Jorge López or Griffin Jax better suited the situation. For this analysis, we have to eschew traditional forms of sports talk where players exist on a range of “goodness” with Emilio Pagán at the bottom; instead we should consider each pitcher as the owner of a specific set of skills and archetypes. They may range insofar as being able to replicate their strengths, but they’re major leaguers for a reason: they possess some talent in acquiring outs. First, Jorge López. López’s success in 2022 came off a nasty, boring sinker that swiped the souls of righties while a healthy dose of curveballs and changeups kept lefties honest. All three pitches were tremendous offerings. In comparison, Griffin Jax—Minnesota’s other great bullpen piece—is a slider specialist with a four-seamer and a newly developed cutter. Both pitchers are righties. Rocco Baldelli decided to keep Caleb Thielbar in to vex the lefty Michael Massey—platoons still reign supreme—before calling in López to face the righty Hunter Dozier and the lefty Kyle Isbel. Dozier hit for a weak 82 wRC+ against righties in 2022 and has been brutally negative against sinkers his entire career; López caught him window shopping on an outside breaking ball. Isbel is a more interesting case. His offensive profile in the majors has been poor overall, but he was unfathomably bad against four-seam fastballs last season. He grounded out against a sinker. Perhaps Rocco was unphased by any threat he offered. That left Jax for the 8th inning. His first target was Edward Olivares, a righty fairly neutral against all pitches in 2022 but struggled against fastballs and sliders the previous two seasons; he flew out on a solidly-struck liner. Bobby Witt Jr. then stepped in, and promptly worked a five-pitch walk—not surprising given that he performed well against sliders in 2022, although Jax did get squeezed on the final pitch. That’s baseball. M.J. Melendez, who smoked four-seam fastballs last season, then grounded into a double play on a four-seamer down the heart of the plate. That’s baseball. Did Rocco put his best foot forward? Potentially. Calling in López appeared to be a significant anti-Hunter Dozier measure, but Jax’s matchups in the 8th were far from favorable, arguably just as reasonable a time to save for a few López sinkers. But it was likely his best choice, as Pagán or Jorge Alcalá were his other probable selections. And there’s even more to the decision-making process than just science! Bullpen management is part political, a dash of art, and a sprinkle of, even in todays game, some classic gut feelings. Matchups are fun, but players are still humans after all, and Rocco has to navigate the murky waters of relationships and egos while still winning ballgames. It’s a tough life for a manager; dealing with relief pitchers, as Bruce Springsteen may have once said in 1982, is just winners and losers, and “don’t get caught on the wrong side of that line.” You can have the best options in and still get burned or you could find the correct answer by plugging in the wrong equation altogether. In any case, it worked for Rocco as the Twins held onto a shutout during their opening day victory. Oh, and Jhoan Duran pitched the 9th because he’s Zeus in the flesh. View full article

With baseball awakening from its slumber, join us on a trip through the AL Central, observing what each team has done—and still needs to do—in order to claim the division crown. Image courtesy of Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports How did last season go? In a surprising breakout year, Cleveland escaped AL Central mediocrity to claim their first division title since redacting their name. It was a tremendous overhaul. With only José Ramírez and Shane Bieber returning as incumbents from that 2018 squad, the Guardians grew organically, promoting young studs like Steven Kwan and Triston McKenzie while riding accomplished breakouts from Andrés Giménez, Amed Rosario, Josh Naylor, Cal Quantrill and Emmanuel Clase—five talented players ripped from other franchises. It was the culmination of Cleveland’s philosophy: always finding quality, never acting satisfied with their current makeup, they dispersed legitimate major-league talent—trades bold to some but standard for them—in order to remain competitive. Few other teams in baseball could thrive after dealing a player like Francisco Lindor. The success didn’t end after the regular season; Cleveland dispatched the Rays before gritting out a wicked five-game series with the Yankees. They lost, but it was a sign that the typically toothless AL Central may have a feisty competitor. What did they do in the off-season? The Guardians capitulated a touch this past winter. Typically abstinent from the free agent frenzy, they added Josh Bell on a significant-for-them two-year deal and called upon the nebulous Mike Zunino to take over catching duties. They made other tertiary deals—talented outfielder Will Benson was banished elsewhere in the state—but those two signings represent the heart of Cleveland’s offseason. And they fit. Boy do they fit. While President of Baseball Operations, Chris Antonetti, pushes back on the notion that the Guardians purposely built their identity on contact and defense, the makeup is suspiciously classic. No team struck out less in 2022; few teams fielded better. If one was to retrofit an 80’s ballclub to the modern game, Cleveland would be the team and the fresh additions fit their mantra perfectly. Anyways, you probably know both of these guys; outside of having a dreadful 2020—and really, who didn’t—Bell has typically been an above-average to occasionally elite on-base threat with fewer punchouts than one would believe given his build and position. He struggled mightily following a mid-season deal to San Diego, but history says that should be a hiccup. Zunino is the fun one. His defense is great, and that’s fine and all, but his anxious bat is the stuff of legends: he has never finished a season with a wRC+ between 87 and 117; whether you get a monkey’s paw curse or a normal, competent bat is up to the stars. Cleveland can afford to only make these moves, though, because they possess one of the most consistent development systems in baseball, constantly churning out quality players will dull regularity. Despite using 17 rookies in 2022, the franchise still claims the 2nd best farm, according to Keith Law. “The Guardians seem to do two things exceptionally well,” he writes. “They have found a ton of talent, notably infield talent, through international free agency, and they have a clear process where they identify college starters with command and good deliveries whom they can help find increased velocity.” 80% of their rotation is homegrown. That shouldn’t even be possible. What should we expect in 2023? You know what’s coming. The Guardians will parade out an endless array of nasty pitchers, often none you’ve ever heard of before, while scrapping out enough late-inning runs to best their opponent. Rinse and repeat for 90-95 wins and they’ll likely earn enough victories to snag another playoff spot. So it goes. If you were so willing—and this author certainly is—there are a few weak spots in their armor, areas of fortune not so likely to repeat. The first of which comes via the baseball law-makers: the new equitable schedule hurts no team more than the Guardians, handing them 14 more games against teams with a winning record (based on 2022 standings, some teams may fluctuate in performance, of course). Cleveland held their own against teams over .500, breaking even with a 34-34 record, good for 7th best in baseball, but a few precious wins shaved off their record could mean a standings slip in a more competitive AL Central, assuming the Twins don’t fall on their face and the White Sox stop eating glue in the corner. It’s still a relatively easy schedule, so this point could prove moot. The second has to do with some of those breakout players from before: popping up the hood on Andrés Giménez’s hitting stats reveal some real rank stuff, stats unfitting in a typical healthy outburst. His .326 xwOBA in 2022 sits near Brendan Rodgers and Trey Mancini—fine hitters, but nowhere close to the Bogaertsian line he allegedly produced. Throw in a hearty BABIP, a poor walk rate, and questionable swing decisions, and his season may end up a mirage. The guy got hit nearly as often as he walked. A fall from grace could puncture an average hitting lineup. Oscar Gonzalez was phenomenal as a rookie, adding 122 wRC+ thump from the outfield with a build reminiscent of Albert Belle… hey! That’s a .345 BABIP and a 3.9% walk rate; we should know better than to trust that. Then there’s Cal Quantrill—the UnQuantrifiable—as coined by the good people at Pitcher List. The angel standing on your left shoulder will point out that his FIP since joining Cleveland is remarkably unremarkable, but the devil on the other side will just as quickly circle his sparkling 3.11 ERA. It’s been long enough that his performance feels sustainable, but, come on, there’s something sinister behind those numbers. Yet, this type of analysis feels far too granular for the Guardians; with Terry Francona helming a phenomenal system of talent, no one player, outside of maybe Ramírez, is irreplaceable or irreplicable. If Giménez busts, they’ll just replace him with Brayan Rocchio or something, shuffle their playing cards, and still spit out competence. It’s how they’ve turned in just one under .500 performance since the days of Shelley Duncan, 39-year-old Derek Lowe, and multiple time All-Star Chris Pérez (2012). So write your hating articles, predict their downfall, but remember that few franchises in baseball have thrived since the start of the 2010s like the Cleveland Guardians. They can develop four 200 strikeout starters and rid themselves of the same arms with no change to their success. That’s a legitimate baseball machine, one to be greatly feared and respected, and the end to their reign does not appear to be near. View full article

With baseball awakening from its slumber, join us on a trip through the AL Central, observing what each team has done—and still needs to do—in order to claim the division crown. Image courtesy of Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports How did last season go? With clowns to the left of them and jokers to the right, the White Sox finished… 2nd in the AL Central—not quite stuck in the middle, but close enough to make the difference negligible. There’s something eternally frustrating about a .500 team; the Lord considers their lukewarm nature repulsive and spits them out of his mouth while we baseball enthusiasts have to sift through mediocrity to properly analyze the roster. It's a movie with brilliant visuals and a meandering plot; a book with an empty subtext. Yes, Dylan Cease is inarguably the best non-Bieberian starter in the division, but what do we make of the likes of Yoán Moncada and Luis Robert? Will inconsistency ever make way for undeniable greatness? The answer, at least in 2022, was no. The team made a solid push for a Wild Card spot but lost eight straight games in late September to seal their fate. What did they do in the off-season? Chicago had a perfectly normal, cromulent off-season. They signed Andrew Benintendi—a sum-of-his-parts outfielder capable of boring production—to a $75 million contract while bringing back Elvis Andrus and acquiring Mike Clevinger on ancillary deals. For Benintendi, the move makes sense; Eloy Jiménez has yet to prove that his defense isn’t an active hazard to his health while the new guy's bat can help add oomph to a lineup losing some lumber. Clevinger can ideally toss about 120 innings, although in a far less efficient manner than he could before his second TJ surgery. Andrus is back because Chicago couldn’t afford to ignore the second base position as a concept anymore. In a vacuum, it’s a fine haul, but it's easy to second-guess Chicago’s strategy. So easy, in fact, that I’ll do that right now. In a division with the consistently-competent Guardians and a Twins team gearing up to earn a playoff spot, Chicago’s moves appear tepid, made to satisfy a bottom line and work as proof that the team is Trying to Win, not an actual attempt to carry out an effective plan. Letting José Abreu walk so that the youngster Andrew Vaughn—he of a 102 career OPS+—could take over first base full-time makes sense, but, man, is it wise to allow the team’s heart to walk without an effort to retain his services? For a franchise that staked its identity in Cuban stars, losing one of the finest players the island ever developed seems guaranteed to make a negative impact. Teams need leaders. To their credit, the White Sox realized this and canned mutually agreed to part ways with manager Tony La Russa. Often criticized, and never appreciated despite a 2021 Division victory, La Russa endured overwhelming negative noise for his decisions. From intentionally walking a hitter in a 1-2 count to being so pissy over his own player hitting a home run that the New York Times got involved, the game seemed to have passed him by, maybe literally. Former Twins draftee and Royals coach, Pedro Grifol, will man the ship now. What should we expect in 2023? The good news for the White Sox is that this is largely the same team that won the division in 2021. The bad news for the White Sox is that this is largely the same team that won the division in 2021. Remaining stagnant only invites atrophy as your competition increases their talent. Sure, they could present new breakout players, but Chicago in modern times has utterly failed to create an environment for internal player development. Their best players are bought, not altered. That may seem like a strange criticism—who cares where you get your players from—but when a team can only capitalize off their most valuable resources, then they aren’t doing their homework. Take a look at the roster: the team is nearly entirely made of 1st-round picks, expensive international signings, trades including significant major-league players, or free-agent acquisitions. Aaron Bummer—a 19th-round pick made nearly a decade ago—may be their only true success story in elevating from the muck. They robbed Cease and Eloy Jiménez from the Cubs and Lucas Giolito from the Nationals, but those were highly-regarded prospects, not invisible potential; those success stories aren’t examples of outstanding talent identification. For a team that refuses to live outside meager means, not finding hidden ability is a death sentence, a ticket to mediocrity that cannot be upgraded no matter how hard they try. That issue shows up in their depth, or, really, a complete lack of it. “[T]he Pale Hose are fairly dangerous if they enjoy a very good injury scenario but fall off very quickly if they don’t,” wrote Dan Szymborski after his ZiPS machine spat out a disappointing projection for the White Sox. Seby Zavala, Gavin Sheets, Jake Burger, and the inexplicable, unkillable Leury García represent the best of Chicago’s backups. It’s better to leave the topic there. Still, it’s impossible to ignore the talent. Luis Robert Jr. could be a legitimate top-5 center fielder in MLB, Tim Anderson is an All-Star talent, Yoán Moncada probably isn’t as bad as he was in 2022, Lucas Giolito has multiple 4+ fWAR seasons under his belt, Lance Lynn was elite in 2021, and Dylan Cease is a Cy Young candidate. That’s more upside than most .500 teams. But upside doesn’t promise wins, and baseball is a game of depth. Without tremendous, potentially historic injury luck, it’s difficult to see the White Sox maintain their top-tier talent throughout the entire season; those games started by the Davis Martins and Jonathan Stievers of the world appear ripe to tank their season. Whether that happens will be a game of fortune, and Chicago already knows what it's like to be burned by the odds. View full article

With baseball awakening from its slumber, join us on a trip through the AL Central, observing what each team has done—and still needs to do—in order to claim the division crown. Image courtesy of © Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports How did last season go? Terrible. After a surprisingly competent showing in 2021, the Motor City Kitties fell back into their typical post-2016 swampy waters, finding themselves stuck in a 66-win quagmire. It was a puzzling everything-that-could-go-wrong-did type of season. Their big free agent splashes in Eduardo Rodríguez and Javier Báez capitulated; Rodríguez battled personal issues while Báez continued his lifelong struggle with sliders off the plate. A good team could overcome those things, but when mixed with overbearing injuries to young stars and poor play by their top prospects, Detroit’s 11-win slide isn’t much of an Agatha Christie mystery. Cruelly, almost any bright spot on the team comes with attached asterisks and lawyers' notes. Tarik Skubal was excellent to start the season, appearing on his way to finally grow into Young Ace territory before Flexor Tendon surgery curtly cut his year short; he will likely start 2023 recovering from surgery. Joe Jiménez figured out that you need to strike people out, not walk them, and limit homers… just to be traded to Atlanta following the season. So it goes. Eric Haase’s continued breakout might be the most notable positive for the team; he’s 30 with a poor glove. What did they do this off-season? The Tigers did what all underperforming teams do: tread water on the roster while cleaning up the muck internally. Was Al Aliva the problem? Who knows, but he’s gone, now replaced by former Giants brain man Scott Harris. Was the training staff poor? Maybe, but a clean sweep of the system will now ensure that, if injuries strike again, Detroit will at least have new people they can blame. That cleansing may be wise; the Tigers once claimed a hoard of talented pitching prospects—Casey Mize, Matt Manning, and Alex Faedo, among others—but one after the other has either underperformed, fell victim of an injury, or faced some combo of the two. Only the aforementioned Skubal has established himself in the majors. That’s not a pattern Detroit can afford to repeat. Outside of the Jiménez deal, the Tigers’ most impactful move was sending Gregory Soto and his lethal stuff/minimal control combo to Philadelphia for a haul of fascinating players. Will Nick Maton, Matt Vierling, or Donny Sands be good? Who knows, but parting with a reliever to find the answer to that question is a worthwhile bet. They also brought back the prodigal son, Matthew Boyd, and paid $8.5 million to Michael Lorenzen to pitch a bunch of forgettable innings. What should we expect in 2023? Perhaps it’s the madness of modern life sitting in, but the Tigers might be a compelling bounce-back team. It’s unlikely that the bats will be as historically dreadful as they were at parts in 2022, and their wall-moving project—a tasteful venture, unlike Baltimore's—should improve offense, at least a little bit. If Austin Meadows stays healthy and Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene figure out major-league pitching, the lineup could be at least passable. The rotation is shakier. Mize is still on the mend after receiving Tommy John surgery, although his contributions were questionable to begin with, and Skubal just began throwing from flat ground. That leaves a strange hodge-podge of uninspiring veterans in Boyd and Lorenzon, rebound candidates in Rodríguez and Spencer Turnbull, and Manning’s impossibly low strikeout rate. It’s bizarre; this team is bizarre. They need a solid showing from their Faedos and Joey Wentzs to escape the AL Central doldrums. There’s little good news on the prospect front. Keith Law wrote that “[f]rom the 2016 through 2021 drafts, their top three picks by WAR to date are Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize … and John Schreiber, signed for $6,000 in the 15th round. Their international free-agent classes have been totally unproductive. And we haven’t seen many players get better once in the system over the last decade, whether they come in as reasonably polished players or not.” Other than that, things are fine. Jackson Jobe and Jace Jung—brothers in alliteration—pepper the back-end of top 100 prospects lists (so does the other Wilmer Flores, this one a pitcher), but the depth is malnourished, and Detroit lacks the history of identifying and fixing young talent. Colt Keith and Parker Meadows are interesting, though. Their future appears more unpredictable than Kansas City’s, but their upside could be legit. A.J. Hinch is a more-than-competent manager, and some elusive injury luck could spit out a team unlikely to compete for a playoff spot, but one who could flirt with .500 enough to make the effort seem worthwhile. Hopefully, Miguel Cabrera’s final season isn’t wasted on mediocrity. View full article

It was October 6th, 1965, and Metropolitan Stadium had never been more raucous. After a dominating 102-win season, the Twins earned the right to face the class of the NL, the Dodgers, in the World Series. With a 4-1 lead built up against Don Drysdale, Sandy Valdespino smacked a double to right field. Life never felt better. Image courtesy of Malcolm Emmons-USA TODAY Sports The baseball world lost another brother in their fraternity last Sunday. Sandy Valdespino, one of Sam Mele’s bench weapons on the 1965 World Series team, passed away in Moultrie, Georgia, at the age of 84. Signed by the legendary scout, Joe Cambria, Valdespino made his American baseball debut in 1957, crushing a homer in the Texas League that earned him notice in The Sporting News (Cohen). Valdespino—who was originally named “Hilario,” only taking on the name “Sandy” because minor-league manager Johnny Welaj thought he looked like Dodgers player Sandy Amoros—bounced across the minors, playing around the U.S. as he fought for promotions. Jim Kaat recalled rooming with Valdespino in Missoula, Montana in 1958: “We rented a room in a house … I think it was 16 bucks a week,'' Kaat said. "I was 6-foot-5 and white as snow, and Sandy was 5-foot-6 and a black guy in Montana 65 years ago. We made quite the pair strolling down the streets of Missoula.” (Reusse, Miller) As a Cuban player during the Castro revolution, Valdespino navigated choppy political waters, leaving his home country to focus solely on baseball following 1961. “I was very lucky,” he said. “In the beginning, I was kind of worried. What if I don’t make it? What am I supposed to do? But I work hard. I work hard and I keep myself in good discipline. I make a lot of friends. It was good for me.” (Seegmueller). 1965 proved to be his opportunity. After leading the International League in batting with the Atlanta Crackers the prior season, the Twins found room in their lineup for the potential star. Playing time was inconsistent—a start here, a pinch-hit there—as Minnesota stacked outfield proved tough to crack. Valdespino found his niche. An especially fruitful June embodied his 274 plate appearances and consistent play as a late-inning substitute; he played in 108 games that year. Earning three starts in the World Series, including a spot in the two-hole for the opening match, Valdespino cracked a trio of hits, but couldn’t help overcome the great Dodgers pitching machine in a seven-game loss. Despite earning the opening-day left field spot over Bob Allison, Valdespino could not build off his rookie season; 1965 proved to be the most successful season in his career. A second dry season in 1967 begat a journeyman series of seasons. While he rubbed elbows with stars like Hank Aaron, Phil Niekro, Joe Torre, Joe Morgan, and Amos Otis, the magic never returned, and Valdespino retired from MLB following 1971. His playing career ended in 1974 after a venture in the Mexican League. Despite a memorable World Series performance, Valdespino’s most cherished MLB memory was an outstanding catch he made in 1967. “We were winning, 5-3, and Dean Chance was pitching, but he started to have a little bit of trouble in the eighth,” Valdespino said. “So they took him out and put me in the left field, so I could (hit in the pitcher’s spot in the lineup). They pulled Bob Allison out of left and put Ron Kline in to pitch. I got back there slowly and Dick Radatz came to bat. The wind was blowing in like a hurricane, and Kline threw him a fast ball. He hit it, and the ball came off his bat and took off like an airplane. I said, ‘Oooh, what’s this? So I took off running to see how far that ball was going to go over the fence.” (Seegmueller) But the ball didn’t end up flying too far. “When I jumped, my spikes caught the fence and kept me on balance,” he said. “I saw the ball and threw my glove up and it went in. Whop! That was one of my greatest catches ever; they are still talking about it. They have it on a replay they show.” (Seegmueller) For Cleveland’s manager, it was the greatest catch he ever saw, and with Joe DiMaggio in the stands for the game, it was a beautiful showcase of what Sandy Valdespino could do on a baseball field. Sources: Cohen, Alan, Sandy Valdespino, SABR. Miller, Chris and Reusse, Patrick, Former Twins outfielder Sandy Valdespino dies at age 84, StarTribune. Seegmueller, Tom, Albany's Sandy Valdespino recalls escaping Cuba to baseball's Major Leagues, Albany Herald. View full article

Agreed.

It can be true that both the Twins *and* Royals don’t have a great recent track record with homegrown starters. At least Minnesota produced José Berríos.

With baseball awakening from its slumber, join us on a trip through the AL Central, observing what each team has done—and still needs to do—in order to claim the division crown. Image courtesy of Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports How did last season go? Poorly. Again. The Royals extended their post-World Series rebuild another season, failing to crack .500 for the sixth straight season. They couldn’t pitch, but they made up for it by not hitting. Despite a recent influx of minor-league talent —including a gift from the prospect gods in Bobby Witt Jr.— the Royals allowed 810 runs, scored just 640 of them and dragged down a dismal AL Central with a 65-97 record. They will pick eighth in the 2023 MLB Draft. There were bright spots, a few shiny diamonds littered in their rough. Brady Singer made The Jump, improving his control enough to net him a more-than-respectable 3.23 ERA with peripherals to match. He will continue to spot sinkers on the outside corner for years to come. The aforementioned Witt Jr. treaded water at the major-league level, showcasing elite bat speed and a potentially dynamic hitting package, but couldn’t find his aggressive sweet spot, and his OBP sat below .300 on the year. For the sake of decency, his defense at shortstop should remain ignored. But then, Vinnie Pasquantino, the first baseman netted fewer than 300 plate appearances, but showcased a frightening Freddie Freeman-esque combo of contact and power with a walk rate higher than his strikeout rate; he’s their next Alex Gordon. What did they do this offseason? Not much. They unceremoniously dumped Adalberto Mondesí onto the Red Sox after years of waiting for his injury bug to find a new host (it never did), signed a few arms to eat innings—Ryan Yarbrough and Jordan Lyles—because, well, someone has to, brought on Aroldis Chapman because their version of baseball reference stopped updating at 2019, and re-signed Zack Greinke after his 2022 nostalgia trip resulted in a shockingly usable pitching campaign. They also dealt away Michael A. Taylor for bullpen arms. If that sounds like shuffling an old, mildew-covered deck of cards, you’re right. While they acquired capable major-league players—and a few once dominant ones—their on-field moves were made in order to fill roster spots, not to add impact pieces. The difference-maker for the Royals comes via their brain trust. Longtime decision-maker Dayton Moore earned the boot before the season ended, and J.J. Picollo took over to help steer Kansas City into modernity. Manager Mike Matheny transformed into Matt Quatraro, the recent bench coach for the Tampa Bay Rays. Trekking from Cleveland, Brian Sweeney replaced Cal Eldred as pitching coach. The moves, while small, point towards an acknowledgment of baseball’s changing times. With their laughably archaic minor-league pitching laws likely gone, the Royals appear set to embrace the data-driven movement. Perhaps no player represents Kansas City's issue with developing pitchers than Asa Lacy. The former 2020 4th overall pick dominated as a sophomore with Texas A&M, earning 130 strikeouts with a miniscule 2.13 ERA. His pro time has been a disaster. The few healthy innings Lacy owns are tainted with horrifying walk rates and uncompetitive starts; his prospect status is nowhere near his draft pedigree. What should we expect in 2023? The Al Central-hater that resides deep within this author’s core says more of the same, but that could be a touch mean. A playoff appearance would likely only occur if the rest of the division implodes, revealing each team to be groups of children wearing trench coats, but the Royals probably aren’t looking at wins to judge success. With Daniel Lynch, Kris Bubic, Jackson Kowar, and Jon Heasley, Kansas City has assembled a group of talented arms, pitchers who would otherwise likely thrive in more ideal pitching environments but have floundered in the Royals’ weird philosophical model. That should change. Picollo and Sweeney will make it change. It’s unclear specifically what the new Royals will preach, but it seems impossible for them to take a step backward. The position players tell a different story. Pasquantino is going to rake (seriously, buy as much stock in him as possible), but Kansas City has accrued an odd combination of talented hitters with poor defensive specs. Witt Jr. will probably hit well, but his defensive chops at shortstop in 2022 were atrocious; M.J. Melendez boasts a promising OBP/power skillset, but he’s a butcher at catcher and appears set to follow the Billy Butler defensive route. After them, it’s a weird assortment of older not-really-prospects and whatever Drew Waters has left in his hype tank. Although, even Waters will be out for six weeks with an oblique issue. What you see is mostly what you get; outfielder Gavin Cross likely won’t impact the 2022 team, leaving the light-hitting Maikel Garcia and the lighter-hitting Nick Loftin as the prospects most likely to alter Kansas City’s fortunes. Both players are infielders. Outfielder Tyler Gentry could mash enough to break the team at some point (he slugged .550 at Double-A last season). Their pitching is more dry, as Angel Zerpa and Alec Marsh represent the talented arms closest to the majors, but Kansas City will likely bank on their technically-not-prospect pool of pitchers anyways. The Royals probably won’t challenge much in the AL Central, but they’ve finally righted the organization, bringing in quality candidates from successful franchises who should help sift through the development quagmire that has soiled the team for years. It won’t work immediately; the 2023 Royals will exist in the nebula, only becoming apparent once the dust settles on their infrastructure altering. But for real, Vinnie Pasquantino is going to be awesome. View full article

Corbin Burnes is down over $700,000 and is not happy. A feisty arbitration case between the ace and his employer, the Milwaukee Brewers, has morphed into a debacle, a spectacle rarely publicly available as the details regarding the hearing tell a strange, piddling tale. Image courtesy of Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports Hurt feelings over arbitration are not a new phenomena; they are the byproduct of a system that pits the player’s capitalizing desires against a team’s inherent payroll conservatism, revealing the gross reality when neither player nor team owns sole control over one’s salary. It's a messy beast. While team and player can kiss and make up—indeed, bridges don’t always burn—it seems inevitable that grudges, minor and major, can brew resentment. There’s a reason why both parties dread the process. Burnes’ arbitration case stands out as one of the messiest in recent memory. Milwaukee remained steadfast in their offer, forcing a day in court over a less than $750,000 difference in pay. While the Brewers technically offered a deal to avoid the meeting—a two-year pact that Burnes described as “pretty poor”— their arguments in the case revealed their intent. “I mean, there’s no denying that the relationship was definitely hurt from what (transpired) over the last couple of weeks,” said the 2021 Cy Young winner following the decision. “There’s really no way to get around that.” “You work hard for seven years in the organization and five years with the big-league team, and you get in there and basically they value you much different than what you thought you’d contributed to the organization.” Professionalism will keep Burnes from mutiny or internal sabotage, but his words tinge with hurt feelings and sourness. After all, Milwaukee apparently placed him in the forefront of reasons why they missed the playoffs. With two years of team control remaining, and a healthy PECOTA projection placing Milwaukee as the class of a weird NL Central, the Brewers have no reason to deal their starter. Burnes may be pissy, but athletes have been crabby for years; an upset star only matters when you start losing. But time can fritter and waste in an offhand way. Two years melt away, losses can pile up, and a team can suddenly find themselves staring at an extensive re-evaluation process as their assets’ years dwindle. It would not be a shock to see Christian Yelich and His Merry Men flail early, perhaps placing Milwaukee—a team always conscious about their stars—in a tough spot. Conversations may need to occur; tough decisions made. Could they afford to hold tight, banking that they reverse course in 2024 with enough vigor to make Burnes’ place on the team worthwhile? The Twins must have their radar up. Aces—always such a rarity these days—almost never become available, especially for a team that lacks the monetary fortitude to pay for one in free agency. Trades are the great savior. When the market evolves, potentially offering a chance for the team to snag their guy, they must react. But the timing must be right. The opportunity, perfect. Spring training is not the appropriate venue for such a deal to go down, but if the team holds their own through July, the trade deadline could be the time to strike. Other teams are thinking as well, wondering whether they can pull the same maneuver to swipe Burnes for themselves. Every team in baseball can use him; the only thing holding them back is themselves. They’ll battle with wondering if they have the gumption to bypass their desire to avoid risk and embrace owning the services of a unique starter. With an unambiguous stud in Burnes, that question becomes a lot easier. For Minnesota, their offer may not touch other teams; their prospect pool is ok, but acquiring Burnes’ services requires the best, not a heap pile of castaways. A combo likely requires Brooks Lee, Marco Raya, and more. It’ll hurt—especially after a plethora of prior trades drained their farm system—but it may be the most crucial step towards the glorious playoff run Derek Falvey and co have worked towards since taking over in 2016. It’s unlikely to happen, but so was signing Carlos Correa, and sometimes you need a little luck, or a grumpy ace, to put your team over the top. View full article

It should be noted that this was a 35-year-old Don Sutton, one who was still great, but not as consistently dominant as his younger self.