Matt Braun

He may not have the sheen of a few years prior, but he can still improve the major-league roster. Image courtesy of William Parmeter He's a little worn—used, certainly lacking in the luster he once claimed—but Jordan Balazovic is still standing. Once one of the golden arms of the farm, inconsistency and injury have altered his path, dropping him down from a regular of top 100 lists to the doldrums of prospects lists, mentioned, but only briefly. Fantasies of stardom atop a major-league starting rotation may only remain in dreams now, yet the Twins have put together a plan for the Canadian righty, and he may be able to contribute to the club very soon. If you haven’t noticed, Balazovic’s usage in 2023 evolved. Once a fledgling reliever throughout April, Balazovic then grew back into his assumed role in the starting rotation for three starts before finding himself entering a game following an opener on May 20th. He has now done so four times. Openers aren’t random in the Twins organization—the team employed many of them starting in their lukewarm 2018 campaign—but they quickly fell out of vogue, and the team almost entirely eschewed them from their organizational strategy with a few exceptions. Consistently starting an opener before Balazovic four straight times is not an accident. They are, it seems, allowing him to become more familiar with the role while still ensuring that his innings diet is satisfied; three of the four outings resulted in at least three innings of work. His stamina won’t atrophy, and Minnesota will reap the double benefit of knowing they can call him up whenever they want, as Balazovic should be comfortable with acquiring outs out of the bullpen. Because that’s what this is: they’re preparing him as a reliever. And it makes sense why. While the starting rotation has been phenomenal, the bullpen—outside of one very special individual—has been a tragedy, and not even one of the ones with eye-stabbing and incest: it’s just tedious. It’s to the point where any arm they call up that can locate the strike zone with even mild consistency is now amongst their most well-trusted troops. Balazovic, though, has found his strikeout stuff (at the loss of some control) and owns a tremendous 2.84 FIP in the four starts he’s made following an opener. The plan will likely be for Balazovic to see time around the end of June or early July—whenever the team feels like DFA-ing someone, basically. Rather than potentially dip their toes into Jorge López-filled waters at the trade deadline, the team will at least see if Balazovic could provide some aid before rashly dealing away yet another future breakout prospect. If he can, great! That’s a problem solved. If not, they can still potentially deal for an arm, although they may prefer not to roll that dice again. The previous paragraph is pure speculation, but it makes sense, at least to me. Why else would the team bother with opener shenanigans if they didn’t anticipate calling Balazovic up to help out in relief? It seems very likely that he will finally join the team soon and will likely be seen entering from the bullpen. View full article

Do you think the vertical approach helps neutralize platoons? Feels like that’s a strategy that can be effective fairly equally against lefties and righties more so than glove side or hand side preference.

Or, when the ecstasy of the deal wears off, what are you left with? Image courtesy of Brent Skeen-USA TODAY Sports Typically, analyzing deals less than a year after they occur is bad process. Players often make massive, gigantic strides in their game, and performance fluctuates—lagging before suddenly clicking, perhaps. But the outcomes of two of the trades are already mostly apparent, allowing us to play anthropologist and unearth what happened on August 2nd, 2022. But first: the historical context. It’s always easy to admonish trades long after the fact, but with some exceptions (hello, Pirates and Chris Archer), every trade makes sense at the time. Front office executives aren’t fools; they may be desperate to varying degrees, but the heat of the moment will always justify whatever eventual poor trade they make. And so we must travel back in time a little to where the Twins were at the trade deadline. Sitting six games above .500—comfortable, perhaps not cozy—Minnesota could easily command the AL Central crown over yet another tepid division. Things weren’t perfect, but they were good, and sometimes that’s all one can get in baseball. Still, the duel swear words “Dylan Bundy” and “Chris Archer” (there he is again!) made up 40% of the starting rotation, and Emilio Pagán was Emilio Pagán-ing, leaving the Twins hungry for upgrades to the pitching staff. Traded by the Baltimore Orioles with cash to the Minnesota Twins for Juan Nunez (minors), Cade Povich (minors), Juan Rojas (minors), and Yennier Cano. The Jorge López deal was the first to break that day. I was still sleeping when news hit Twitter—I’m on the West Coast; not lazy, mind you—so waking up to a sudden All-Star influx of closing ability was more pungent and invigorating than the first cup of coffee. The deal hurt, given that Cade Povich was a tremendous talent laying waste to minor-league hitters, but that’s the price the devil extracts when you don’t plan your bullpen well. And López would be worth it, right? This was a blatant breaking of a very serious rule the A’s have known about for decades: closers are built, not bought. High-octane relievers are alluring, but like a sports car purchased to flaunt opulence, they can break easily. López’s ERA has jumped almost two runs since his half-season of elite play in Baltimore, while Yennier Cano currently leads MLB in reliever fWAR. That’s the kind of swindle that appears in documentaries with Very Smart people wondering how the hell a team could get duped that badly. For your health, don’t look up Povich’s peripherals at AA this year. Traded by the Cincinnati Reds to the Minnesota Twins for Christian Encarnacion-Strand (minors), Steve Hajjar (minors), and Spencer Steer. The monkey’s paw curled once more before the day ended, and suddenly the common troubles of a talented and underperforming starter became Minnesota’s problem to figure out. They didn’t. Or, rather, they never got the chance to: Tyler Mahle’s Twins career lasted 42 innings (less than Gabriel Moya’s), and he will likely spend 2024 on a different team—one fine with eating a few months of Tommy John recovery in the hopes that he can be an effective pitcher in the nebulous sometime future. As tragic as this deal was as well, it had to be done, sort of. The value of a competent starter has never been higher than now; the vast dearth of arms capable of eating five, six innings with any consistency has created a market of desperation where teams are taking risks on players in the hopes that the low odds of them breaking out turn favorable. They have to; there’s no other choice. It’s why Minnesota stirred up all the hoopla over acquiring Chris Paddack; it’s why Toronto sends Yusei Kikuchi out to the mound every handful of days. The Twins were burned—obviously—but so were the Yankees when they signed Carlos Rodón and traded for Frankie Montas. And I think if you ask any team with a similar situation, they would say that they remain fine with the chance they took. Ironically, the depth Minnesota sought to avoid and protect now appears to be the answer in front of their face: Bailey Ober and Louie Varland are solid rotation fixtures. So let this be the lesson: risks are good and necessary, but the Twins may best avoid future disasters if they choose to trust themselves. They’ve proven excellent off-season identifiers of pitching talent, but their nervous in-season trade decisions have almost always bitten themselves, save for one awesome Sergio Romo addition. Hopefully, they realize this before it’s too late this season. View full article

Well, they can't all be winners. TRANSACTIONS OF Kyle Garlick recalled by Minnesota. Joey Gallo went on the Injured List. Saints Sentinel St. Paul 8, Buffalo 3 Box Score Simeon Woods Richardson: 4 1/3 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 5 BB, 5 K HR: Trevor Larnach (3) Multi-hit games: Edouard Julien (2-for-5, 2B, 3 RBI) The Saints won easily on Saturday. You don’t see too many eight-run outbursts fueled by only one multi-hit effort; that was just the kind of democratic, balanced offensive attack the Saints elected to employ; every batter reached base except for Andrew Stevenson, the lead-off man. The innings of note were the 5th and 8th when Edouard Julien emptied the bases with a wind-aided double, and Alex De Gotti and Trevor Larnach slugged their way to three bonus runs. Simeon Woods Richardson was off again. The 22-year-old couldn’t figure out his mechanics, frantically spraying balls around the plate to the tune of five walks—the most free passes he’s handed out in one game since joining the Twins. We all hope Woods Richardson’s turned corner appears soon, but tonight was not it. The Saints’ bullpen was nails, though, working 4 2/3 innings of one-run ball to bring the game to a quiet close. Oliver Ortega struck out four, Patrick Murphy earned six clean outs, and Josh Winder wrapped business up with a relatively boring 9th frame. Both Ortega and Murphy have ERAs under 2.00 on the season. Technically old friend Luke Bard allowed five hits and three earned runs out of Buffalo’s bullpen. The Bisons’ best prospect, Hayden Juenger—ranked 10th in the system by MLB.com—pitched an excellent inning of work, punching out two in a scoreless frame. Wind Surge Wisdom Wichita 1, Tulsa 8 Box Score Chad Donato: 5 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 5 BB, K HR: None Multi-hit games: None The Wind Surge fell down early and never recovered against Tulsa on Saturday. It’s never ideal to spot the other team five runs in the first; it’s even less ideal to do so against the pitching force known as Emmet Sheehan. The next man in the Dodgers’ Great Pitching Machine, Sheehan entered the day third in all of MiLB in strikeouts, aided by a carrying fastball that seems to elevate into eternity, always slipping above hitters’ bats. Sheehan and the rest of Tulsa’s pitching staff turned Wichita’s bats dull. All the Wind Surge could offer was three singles and just as many walks; amazingly, they strung two of those knocks together in the sixth to plate their first—and only—run of the night. Brooks Lee was the RBI earner. Chad Donato suffered no such fortune. His evening began single, single, walk, grand slam, effectively ending any chance he had at a normal start before an out could even be had. Eddys Leonard followed up with a solo homer to drown Donato’s wound in sodium. Curtis Taylor—an arm signed a month ago by the Twins—was the only pitcher to escape with an unperturbed ERA; he tossed a pair of scoreless innings with two strikeouts. The Drillers are loaded with prospect talent, and the current king of the system, catcher Diego Cartaya, singled once in five trips to the plate. Kernels Nuggets Cedar Rapids 6, Lansing 3 Box Score Christian MacLeod: 4 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 2 K HR: Kala’i Rosario (8), Ben Ross (7) Multi-hit games: Tanner Schobel (4-for-5, R, 3 RBI) Cedar Rapids came from behind to win on Saturday. It was an unusual offensive method utilized by the Kernels; the six runs appear flashy, but dissecting the lineup reveals the soul of scoring stemming from an absurd four-hit day by Tanner Schobel and homers from Kala’i Rosario and Ben Ross. Hardly an even approach, but it was an effective one. Speaking of effective—this one of the “-ly wild” variety—Christian MacLeod claims an atypical pitching line for the day. The lefty walked four batters, but Lansing could only swing cement when those batters reached base, allowing MacLeod to escape with a single earned run and nothing else. Regi Grace continued his tremendous start to the season with two scoreless frames and four punchouts. In more irregular baseball, Lugnuts outfielder Brayan Buelvas stole four bases on Saturday; he entered the day with just one in 45 games. It’s somewhat shocking that Noah Cardenas didn’t rip out his hair. Catcher Daniel Susac—Oakland’s 4th best prospect, according to MLB.com—earned three hits, including a double on Saturday. Mussel Matters Fort Myers 8, St. Lucie 10 Box Score Jose Olivares: 3 1/3 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 4 BB, 5 K HR: Dylan Neuse (2) Multi-hit games: Rafael Cruz (2-for-5, 2 RBI), Dylan Neuse (2-for-4, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, BB), Alec Sayre (2-for-4, 2 R, RBI, BB), Dillon Tatum (3-for-4, 2B, R, RBI) Fort Myers lost a high-scoring affair on Saturday. With 23 hits and 13 walks combined between the two teams, pitching was at a premium? Non-existent? Whichever you prefer, remember to say a quick prayer for any arm who had the unfortunate task of finding normality on the mound. Jose Olivares was one such casualty. The righty earned a pair of scoreless frames before unwinding in the third, allowing a trio of two-out runs to flip the lead. Fort Myers handed him a fresh advantage, but the fourth proved painful like the inning before it, and following an RBI knock to bring the game within one, Olivares mercifully exited the game. That only placed the pain of handling this match onto someone else. Samuel Perez was a phenomenal stopper, acquiring seven outs while somehow avoiding an earned run, but Ben Ethridge was caught with the ticking time bomb hitting 0:00; he allowed five runs to put the game out of reach. Fort Myers’ bats nearly saved their arms, though, as the back end of their lineup harassed Mets’ pitchers to the tune of eight hits from the 6-9 batters. Every hitter in the lineup reached base at least once. MLB.com sees shortstop Jett Williams as the Mets’ third-best prospect, and he played like it, walking three times and singling while scoring a trio of runs. TWINS DAILY PLAYERS OF THE DAY Twins Daily Minor League Pitcher of the Day – Christian MacLeod Twins Daily Minor League Hitter of the Day – Tanner Schobel PROSPECT SUMMARY Here’s a look at how the Twins Daily Top 20 Twins Prospects performed: #1 - Brooks Lee (Wichita) - 1-3, RBI, BB, 2 K #2 - Royce Lewis (Minnesota) - 1-4, K #3 - Emmanuel Rodriguez (Cedar Rapids) - 0-4, BB, 2 K #4 - Edouard Julien (St. Paul) - 2-5, 2B, 3 RBI, 2 K #7 - Simeon Woods Richardson (St. Paul) - 4 ⅓ IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 5 BB, 5 K #9 - Matt Wallner (St. Paul) - 1-3, 2B, 2 R, BB #13 - Noah Miller (Cedar Rapids) - 0-4, R SUNDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS St. Paul @ Buffalo (12:05 PM) - RHP Kenta Maeda (0-0, 0.00 ERA) Tulsa @ Wichita (1:05 PM) - RHP Blayne Enlow (2-1, 3.13 ERA) Cedar Rapids @ Lansing (12:05 PM) - RHP Zebby Matthews (0-0, -.-- ERA) St. Lucie @ Fort Myers (11:00 AM) - LHP Wilker Reyes (1-0, 5.74 ERA) View full article

Typical Twins keeping their starter in too long 🙄

Two command wizards faced-off on Friday, eschewing modern velocity and hip sweepers for classic control and off-putting sequencing. Bailey Ober came out on top. Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports Box Score Bailey Ober: 6 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K Home Runs: None Top 3 WPA: Bailey Ober (.346), Jhoan Duran (.320), Jorge Polanco (.163) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) The MLB world celebrated a special occasion on Friday: Lou Gehrig day. The legendary Hall-of-Famer started his famous, once unbreakable record streak of 2,130 straight games played on June 2nd; he also tragically passed away due to ALS on the same day, at just 37 years old. The giver of perhaps the greatest speech this side of Lincoln, Gehrig’s influence on American culture and society is unmatched, incomparable. Even 100 years after his first taste of MLB, Gehrig’s spirit alters the sport. It was about as standard of a Bailey Ober outing you could imagine; the elongated righty diced through the Guardians lineup, matching sky-scraping fastballs with diving breakers, eliciting plenty of balls his defense turned into outs. He struck out three while allowing just four hits. But Aaron Civale—freshly removed from the IL—was just as effective, matching Ober blow-for-blow. Civale prefers a different style of pitching—one based on his cutter stunning batters as they search their mind to better understand his plethora of pitches. Minnesota seriously threatened to score twice, but their great enemy, the bases-loaded, tempered odds in the first, and their fourth frame rally died via natural causes (a Kyle Farmer soft line drive.) With no score after six, the onus turned to the bullpen to decide the game. The two teams fired scoreless sixths towards each other before the Twins started yet more action in the seventh. Ryan Jeffers cracked a double and Kyle Farmer walked, setting up two runners on base for the back of the lineup. Michael A. Taylor swapped the runners with a fielder’s choice before Jorge Polanco finally broke the stalemate, blasting a thunderous double off the high wall in right field, scoring the first run of the game. Brock Stewart continued his work from the seventh, extending his effort beyond a one-out “save-me” call by Rocco Baldelli to potentially carry the eighth as well. He faltered a little. A double—aided by some clumsiness by Taylor in center—placed Steven Kwan at second; Stewart’s next out proved to be his last. And in entered the big, bad, fire breathing, lightning-throwing, final boss of Minnesota’s bullpen: Jhoan Duran. Five more outs were needed; Baldelli did not care. José Ramírez exited following a silly swing at a splitter off the plate, and while Josh Naylor reached first on a walk, Andrés Giménez could do little more than mimic a heat sick grandmother waiting for the Fourth of July parade to start, fanning with such authority that the first row felt instantly cooled. But no mercy was to be had for those swinging a bat with a “C” on their helmet. Duran melted more faces—allowing a single to Myles Straw along the way—on his way to securing the last few outs Minnesota needed to win. And really, what are you supposed to do? Humans shouldn’t be able to control 105 MPH fastballs, and Duran’s breaking ball command means that any cheating on the heater will result in a center-stage performance on Pitching Ninja and MLB Network. All you can do is laugh. Notes: Bailey Ober's career ERA against Cleveland now sits at 1.42. Tonight was Jhoan Durán's fourth outing of 2023 that lasted more than one inning; he had 14 such appearances last season. Jovani Moran's last earned run came on May 13th against the Cubs. Ryan Jeffers is slashing .375/.444/.688 in his last seven games. Post-Game Interview: What’s Next? Minnesota and Cleveland will play the third game of the series on Saturday. Fox has the game and first pitch is at 6:15 PM; Sonny Gray will start opposite the other Logan Allen. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet View full article

Read and rejoice in the starting pitchers who thrived in the month of May. Image courtesy of Ed Bailey (graphics by Thieres Rabelo) An issue that popped up a little in this list is that of role assignments: pitchers in the minors often flip-flop between starting and relieving to eat up innings whenever they can. This poses challenges for those who acknowledge the delegation of title, as a starter with one relief appearance is still obviously a starter, but sometimes it isn't as clear-cut. I did my best to adhere to the spirit of the award while still understanding the sometimes silly nature of minor-league pitching order. Below are the names I thought most deserved to be on the list. Their ranking is entirely subjective; I value innings thrown, as those are outs, and outs are valuable, but also like to weigh strikeouts and peripheral numbers as they can differentiate between dominance and merely a pitcher getting lucky. In times when it's a toss-up, I valued the almighty ERA as the great equalizer—got that? Good; let's start. First, some honorable mentions: LHP Brent Headrick, St. Paul Saints Brent Headrick was second in the organization in strikeouts in May, punching out 32 hitters over 23 2/3 innings; run suppression proved his downfall, though, as he held a 4.18 ERA. RHP Marco Raya, Cedar Rapids Kernels May saw a rare perfect month as Marco Raya did not allow a run in four starts, striking out 35.0% of batters while walking just 2.5% of them. He only pitched 12 innings, though, which is why he was relegated to the honorable mention list. RHP Alejandro Hidalgo, Cedar Rapids Kernels Alejandro Hidalgo’s ERA was a sparkling 1.84, but he walked 12 batters over 14 2/3 innings, revealing some good fortune under the hood. LHP Jaylen Nowlin, Cedar Rapids Kernels Jaylen Nowlin led the organization in innings in May and walked just six batters. He also hit six more, though, limiting his placement to the honorable mention list. Now on to the main list: 5. LHP Jordan Carr - High-A Cedar Rapids Kernels, 21 IP, 24.1 K%, 1.71 ERA, 3.36 FIP Jordan Carr is a quick lesson in why pitcher designation in the minors is silly: Carr started three games in May but entered in relief once on May 26th to piggyback off Marco Raya, eventually finishing the game with six excellent frames. Technically that’s not a start, but Carr was still tremendous in May. With just four earned runs over 21 innings, Carr’s microscopic ERA was supported well by respectable strikeout and walks rates. Maybe next month, he won’t be a partial victim of circumstance, but for this month, he'll slot in as the fifth spot on this list. 4. RHP Blayne Enlow - AA Wichita Wind Surge, 25 1/3 IP, 32.4 K%, 3.20 ERA, 3.77 FIP An incredible lesson in patience and perseverance, Blayne Enlow rebounded from a middling 2022 season, making fools of Double-A hitters with revitalized stuff and excellent command. May was a continuation of April; Enlow gobbled up batters with two separate 10-K outings and a third start earning nine whiffs. If it weren't for a bizarre one-strikeout outing and another semi-blowup start, the 2017 draft pick could have reached even higher on this list. Still, Enlow is firmly back on the prospect map, and he could very well see major-league playing time sometime this season—something almost no one expected after the Twins removed him from the 40-man roster last off-season. 3. RHP Cory Lewis- Low-A Fort Myers Mighty Mussels, 19 2/3 IP, 34.6 K%, 2.29 ERA, 2.64 FIP Cory Lewis was a strong contender amongst the top three pitchers I considered for starter of the month. He didn’t take the top spot, but third place is something to cherish for the 22-year-old. He was dominant in May; A-Ball hitters walked back to the dugout 27 times after facing Lewis—a total only trailing Brent Headrick and Blayne Enlow, respectively. With a 0.92 WHIP and a suffocating .169 batting average against, that Lewis ever allowed runs seems like a miracle. You may remember him as the main force behind a May 14th combined no-hitter, striking out seven over 5 2/3 innings of work. He will inevitably join the Kernels sometime in the coming weeks, bringing his knuckleball north to the state of Iowa. 2. RHP Zebby Matthews - Low-A Fort Myers Mighty Mussels, 18 ⅓ IP, 36.0 K%, 1.96 ERA, 1.19 FIP 1.19 FIP! Yeah, that’s real, somehow. You should know about Zebby Matthews by now; perhaps no Twins pitching prospect has dominated this season like Matthews, who earned a promotion to Cedar Rapids before two full months had even passed. It’s easy to see why, though, given that Matthews allowed just four runs in May, striking out 27 batters while walking just two. Two. That’ll get a guy sent up a level. High-A hitters, be warned: Matthews looks to be a force even the strongest-willed amongst us would prefer to avoid. 1. LHP Aaron Rozek - AA Wichita Wind Surge, 22 2/3 IP, 22.4 K%, 1.99 ERA, 3.50 FIP A comeback story as fine as any. Aaron Rozek made three starts in April, surrendering 15 earned runs over 10 frames of work—unenviable numbers from the Burnsville native. But be it fate, fortune, hard work, or a combination of the three, Rozek found himself in May, turning in just five total earned runs over 22 2/3 innings. He beat out a tough crowd to become Twins Daily’s May Minor League starting pitcher of the month. In no start did he allow more than two earned runs, instead opting to hand his opponents one score before shutting them down for the evening; three of his starts were one-run endeavors. Those are difficult numbers to come by in an offensive-heavy environment like the Texas League. What are your thoughts on the starting pitching performances in the Twins minor leagues in May? How would you rank these pitchers? Comment below. View full article

The author would like to note that he conceived this piece prior to Minnesota’s comeback victory over the Astros on Monday. Image courtesy of Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports I was on Twins Daily the other day when the front page struck me with its topics. Around two video links titled "What's Wrong With the Twins" and "The Twins Are Unwatchable Right Now" were three articles: What's Wrong With Griffin Jax, It's Okay to be Disappointed by the Twins, and These 3 Minnesota Twins Prospects Are Off to Disappointing Starts in 2023. That's a lot of consternation! To be clear, these are all legitimate perspectives and relevant topics pertaining to real issues plaguing the franchise. Their timing is extreme, but their subject matter is not; a little healthy skepticism is needed in life, anyways. But—I don't know—does it all seem a little much? The Twins haven't overwhelmed us with legendary and inspiring baseball, but they're 28-26 after play on Monday and currently own one the best pitching staffs in MLB. Trust me; I've sat at Fangraphs longingly staring at the player pages for LaMonte Wade Jr. and Yennier Cano, wondering what cruel creator would allow such searing pain—not seeing excellent players play for my favorite team—to exist in the world, hoping that through sheer sadness, Brent Rooker would somehow apparate into the 4-hole and fix the lineup. And yet, the team is treading water and playing competitive baseball; only eight of their 54 games have resulted in a loss greater than three runs. They've been able to keep it close. Which only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades—I know. And yet the team has outscored their opponents by 44 runs, leading to a record of 32-22 if the Greek philosopher Pythagoras is to be trusted. Most of that success has stemmed from an excellent, genuinely elite starting rotation. Only the Rays—a team that cares not for titles like "starter" and "reliever"—have allowed a lower team batting average; only the Mariners have accrued more fWAR; no one has struck out batters at a higher rate. Minnesota lost Tyler Mahle to Tommy John surgery; Kenta Maeda has stalled on multiple speed bumps while trying to return from his operation, and the team may have actually improved. Their depth is that special. Both Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan have pitched like aces, while Pablo López has teased a potential for ace-ness; I can't remember the last time Minnesota had three legitimate top-tier starters on their team. These things should be celebrated; we should be shouting from the roof that their fifth starter is Louie Varland—a 25-year-old who throws 95, has 60 major-league innings under his belt, and still owns a better xFIP than Gerrit Cole. Bailey Ober ho-hums his way to a 2.68 ERA and one of the highest rWAR totals on the team, and it feels like no one even cares. Now, yes, the bats have been dreadfully inconsistent. I watch the same games as everyone else; I know what it feels like to watch inning after inning go by, all of them melting into an amorphous blob seemingly without life or movement as the team loses 2-4 to the Angels. It's tedium at its worst, considering watching baseball is supposed to be an activity of leisure. Yet it should perhaps be a sign of good things that the bats could be this awful, and the team can still win ball games. And it should improve. Carlos Correa will get better; Jose Miranda will get better; Christian Vázquez… well, he has his own problems, but no one can carry an ISO of .027 forever. This is all to say that it's getting better all the time. No one in the AL Central is even close to having a positive run differential, and that seems unlikely to change soon; those teams stink. It hasn't been aesthetically pleasant baseball at times, but it's still winning baseball, and they've often found themselves playing truly competitive ball against MLB bullies for the first time in a while. Maybe they'll break through and turn elite, and maybe they won't and stay an 85-win team for the rest of the season. All I know is that it'll probably be fine. View full article

It's unusual that the best players are the ones you can't find mentioned on prospect lists. Image courtesy of Fort Myers Mighty Mussels This originally began as a look at a few prospects having great seasons, something of an off-setting on Matthew Taylor’s piece from the other day. I already knew of some of the names I could target, but a search revealed a fascinating pattern: nearly all the minor leaguers crushing the season are not well-regarded. That isn’t an insult to these young men—prospect evaluation is far from a perfect science, and internal synopses likely vary greatly from the public lists—but I found it worthy of mentioning that the “non-prospects” have been the ones performing the best in 2023. Let’s look at the names, speed-date style: RHP Zebby Matthews Freshly promoted to Cedar Rapids, Matthews crushed his time with Fort Myers, striking out 35.3% of the batters he faced while walking 3.3% (!!) of them over 38 2/3 frames. Of 448 pitchers in the minors with at least 30 innings, that’s good for the eighth-lowest walk rate (but not even the best in the system! More on that soon). An 8th-round selection out of Western Carolina University in 2023, Matthews may soon move up prospect lists, but he is still something of an unknown. RHP Cory Lewis Lewis is the only player in this article currently on MLB.com’s top-30 list for the Twins; he takes the very last spot. Owning a spinny fastball, downer curve, and a knuckleball—yes, a knuckleball—Lewis has been nearly as good as Matthews in Fort Myers’ rotation, punching out 34.4% of hitters while walking them 7.6% of the time, still elite peripherals for nearly any pitcher. You may remember Lewis after he helped toss a combined no-hitter for Fort Myers a few days ago. INF Jorel Ortega This could have just been a “the Mighty Mussels are better than we probably gave them credit for” piece. Yet another 2022 draft pick, this one a 6th-rounder out of Tennessee, Ortega has struck the ball impressively at a pitching-dominated level, putting up a 152 wRC+ off a .295/.409/.487 slash line—mere points away from the classic .300/.400/.500 line reserved for the truly special hitters. C Andrew Cossetti .330/.462/.607 served as Cossetti’s Fort Myers slash line before Minnesota decided to stop terrorizing Florida State League pitchers with such offensive domination. A product of St. Joseph's University in Philadelphia (the same college as Jamie Moyer; what a pull), Cossetti quickly earned a promotion to Cedar Rapids, where he will help stimulate a Kernels team looking for some extra thump. Cossetti was yet another 2022 draft selection. OF Kala’i Rosario After a mediocre season with Fort Myers in 2022, Rosario's prospect status atrophied as the former 2020 draft selection had yet to have an overwhelmingly impressive season in the minors. Things have turned around so far in 2023. Rosario shaved a few points off his strikeout rate, replaced them with walks, and improved his isolated power to above the major-league average (.191). He’s currently holding a 153 wRC+; he may inch back onto top prospect lists soon. C Noah Cardenas Few people have more of an interest in Cardenas than I do. Catchers who can hit are rare; catchers who walk more than they strike out are unicorns. Cardenas may not spout a horn on his head, but his 2023 play looks an awful lot like his 2022 line: an elite walk rate buoying competent average and power capabilities. His isolated power is down a little (.119 from .152), but the hitting package still looks excellent. RHP Pierson Ohl Remember the comment about Matthews’ walk rate? Here’s the guy who has him beaten. Ohl has walked four batters over 35 2/3 innings, good for a rate of 2.6%. That’s unheard of. He may actually throw too many strikes for his own good—as evident by his ERA far elevated above his peripherals—but the Twins have shown a consistent ability to coax effectiveness from command-first repertoires like Ohl. Check almost any major stat, and you'll find similar results; the Twins' minor league system is succeeding off the backs of "lesser" prospects, not the players you would most expect to lead the pack. What do we make of this? It can be difficult to rank freshly drafted players, especially those taken lower in the draft, so the lack of prospect respect for these players is unsurprising. They just need time. For the others? Either they never commanded attention in the first place, or the industry opinion altered and never recovered. No matter—these players and their performances should be appreciated, and hopefully, they can keep it up as the season marches on. View full article

Great to see Alex Kirilloff and Royce Lewis producing in the same lineup as we were promised many years ago. I know they both won't have great games like this every day, but it sure feels different having them in the heart of the order.

"Was set to" in that the Twins were expecting that from him.

Tough for me to gloss over the statement-defining "near" that never found its way into the title. Good catch.

A sunk cost no more. After a dreadful continuation of multiple inept seasons, Aaron Hicks now finds himself jobless, freshly told to leave by a franchise once greatly appreciative of his labor. With full hindsight, let’s travel to 2015 in order to understand the meaning of a much-maligned deal. Image courtesy of Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports November 11, 2015: Traded by the Minnesota Twins to the New York Yankees for John Ryan Murphy There was good reason for the trade at the time. Minnesota’s catcher situation was Kurt Suzuki—awful in 2015—and Juan Centeno, of non-prospect pedigree and lacking in inspiring performance. Prospect Stuart Turner was also in the major-league mix; he eventually put up -1.2 rWAR in 89 major-league plate appearances with the Reds in 2017. Murphy was interesting, however, potentially in the way that all MLB players are interesting, but he claimed youth and could hit a little bit. New York didn’t care too much—they had an even younger masher on the horizon named Gary Sánchez—so a swap involving the catcher seemed attractive. The real reason for the Twins to banish Hicks was not necessarily to replenish their weak catching situation but because of a limited amount of outfield spots to hand out to a promising young crop. Eddie Rosario had already broken into the majors, holding his own over 122 games; Max Kepler was too pronounced to ignore after a dominant performance at Double-A Chattanooga; and, finally, the real reason why Minnesota shipped Hicks out of town: a man named Byron Buxton was set to control MLB for a decade. And so the teams made a deal. J.R. Murphy would trade in Yankee pinstripes and any hope of becoming the next Jorge Posada, while one slightly used Aaron Hicks would earn a chance to prove his worth in the toughest market in sports. We know how this played out; Murphy barely played for the Twins, was outright bad when he did play, and got jettisoned amongst franchise turnover when the new front office took over following a disastrous 2016. Hicks turned in a poor first year in New York before realizing his potential, becoming a great tertiary, complementary piece on some dangerous Yankees teams in both 2017 and 2018. Pleased with their heist, New York decision-makers handed him a seven-year, $70 million contract before the 2019 season. And then something weird happened. As atrophy and injuries siphoned excitement from the new Yankees contenders, Hicks—fair or not—fell victim to the swamp of blame, trudging through murky front-office choices and healthless seasons while the “baby bombers” consistently fell to better, more well-built franchises. The mood shifted. No longer a wise steal, Hicks was now part of the establishment representing failed attempts at a title; his play dropped tremendously—a respectable 2020 begat painful 2021 and 2022 campaigns. Fresh out of patience, the Yankees looked at one of the worst left fields in MLB and decided that not having Hicks would be an improvement to their current lot, and he was DFA’d with two years and a team option left on his deal. Now we can tangle with the ultimate question: was the trade that bad? Sure, the Twins received nothing in Murphy, but Hicks’ Yankees career turned into two years of solid performance and a handful of seasons of misery—the kind of which that ruins the strongest wills. New York had to hold onto him long after his expiration date, hoping that the Hicks of old was still there, just needing one more day to appear. In the meantime, their performance sagged by their standards. Meanwhile, Buxton is about to crack 20 career fWAR, Kepler is near 17, and Rosario handed Minnesota about as much value as Hicks accrued in his MLB career (12.2 to 11.9, respectively). Perhaps it was a poor allocation of resources—they could have acquired someone, anyone better in the swap—but all they lost was a position player they could not use, a weapon they could not fire. If that is all, then this trade will likely fall deep into the forgotten chasm of tragic deals, only remembered by sour fans or cunning historians. View full article

In the meantime, enjoy some absolute blowouts on a fruitful evening for minor league baseball. Image courtesy of William Parmeter (photo of Zebby Matthews) TRANSACTIONS None Saints Sentinel St. Paul 14, Omaha 1 Box Score Randy Dobnak: 5 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 5 K HR: Andrew Stevenson (3), Royce Lewis (4) Multi-hit games: Andrew Stevenson (2-for-6, HR, 3 R, 2 RBI), Royce Lewis (2-for-5, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, BB), Mark Contreras (3-for-5, 2B, 2 R, 3 RBI), Andrew Bechtold (2-for-4, 2B, 2 R, RBI, BB), Hernán Pérez (3-for-5, 3B, R, 5 RBI), Jair Camargo (3-for-5, 2 R, RBI) It was destruction. Two-thirds of the lineup earning multi-hit honors says more than anything creative this writer could conjure. The Saints scored for breakfast, scored during lunch, and scored while consuming dinner, bludgeoning Omaha’s poor pitchers for 14 runs off 16 hits. It’s almost cruel. It’s almost impossible to pick a leader from the bunch, but Hernán Pérez and his five RBIs sticks out amongst the melee; any other selection would be just fine, though. The pitchers did their job as well. The walk monster crept up and swallowed Randy Dobnak whole again, coaxing four free passes from the righty, but he halted the damage, only allowing one earned run over his five innings of work. From there it was a combo bullpen effort, with Ronny Henriquez, Cody Laweryson, and Jose Bravo holding the Storm Chasers scoreless to end the game. Royce Lewis tormented a minor-league pitcher again, smacking the fourth homer of his rehab assignment with St. Paul. Mark Contreras added twin stolen bases to go with his three knocks on Saturday. Tyler Gentry was the Royals’ best prospect to have a close look at the chaos; he walked and took a hit by pitch. Wind Surge Wisdom Wichita 6, Springfield 3 (10 Innings) Box Score Travis Adams: 6 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 3 K HR: None Multi-hit games: Brooks Lee (2-for-6, 2B, R), DaShawn Keirsey Jr. (3-for-5, 2 2B, R), Yunior Severino (2-for-5, R, RBI) An explosive 10th inning gave Wichita the victory on Saturday. It would probably be hard to find a player more relieved than Travis Adams. The 23-year-old suffered earned runs and a hurt ego to start the season, entering the game with an ERA north of 7.00 on the young season. He cut a full run off of it. Staring down a tough Springfield offense—one second in the Texas League in OPS—Adams held mayhem down, allowing a lone earned run over six impressive innings. The offense was there, too, but it took a little longer for this truth to become self-evident. Wichita struck for two runs in the 3rd, giving themselves a slim lead before nestling into a hibernation. Outs came easy; bats were chilled. It wasn’t until the bonus inning before the team made their second attack. But what an attack it was: four runners crossed home plate as Yoyner Fajardo and Will Holland both earned two-RBI knocks—Holland’s of the rare triple variety. Springfield plated their Manfred Man(n), but Hunter McMahon ensured the game ended there, striking out the final batter of the game. DaShawn Keirsey Jr. earned three hits in a game for the second time this month. Brooks Lee’s 14 doubles are good for first in the Texas League, tying him with Ryan Bliss for the honors. Wichita turned a season-high three double plays; they also committed a season-high three errors. In an atypical turn, the usually-stacked Cardinals could only offer their 22nd-ranked prospect—Mike Antico—as their finest selection for their AA squad; he singled twice and walked. Kernels Nuggets Cedar Rapids 7, Wisconsin 1 Box Score Alejandro Hidalgo: 4 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 4 K HR: Ben Ross (4) Multi-hit games: Ben Ross (2-for-4, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI), Kala’i Rosario (2-for-4, 2 R, RBI), Noah Miller (2-for-4, 3B, 2B, 3 RBI) The Kernels smoked their opponents on Saturday. Alejandro Hidalgo—wild; often unable to command himself—found great success on the mound. While not perfectly efficient, the righty battled well, utilizing his dazzling changeup to great effect across four empty frames of work. He struck out four and walked two. In a season of extremes with walks, this was a positive step for the youngster. And the Kernels had his back early. A 1st-inning ambush established a pair of quick runs and subsequent scores in the 6th and 8th made the game a laugher. The twin poles of offensive stimulants came from Ben Ross and Noah Miller: the two batters earned five bases each, turning in clutch extra-base hits precisely when their team needed it. Miller’s effort was especially quenching, as he had not had a multi-extra-base-hit game all season. That essentially ended the game. Mike Paredes and John Stankiewicz protected the lead, carrying the team to the finish line with only a small one-run scratch marking the immense achievement for Cedar Rapids’ pitching staff. Wisconsin’s lead-off hitter, Eric Brown Jr., is the best prospect the team has to offer, and the second baseman was held hitless in five trips to the plate. Mussel Matters Fort Myers 2, Dunedin 7 Box Score Zebby Matthews: 5 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 K HR: Rafael Cruz (2) Multi-hit games: None Fort Myers’ bullpen soiled an opportunity to win on Saturday. Zebby Matthews was as expected. The Western Carolina product continued his tremendous dominance over Low-A hitters, out-witting Dunedin with each of his many offerings over five shutout innings before mercifully ending his reign on the mound. He touched 95.4 MPH and elicited 10 swings and misses. It’s been clear for nearly two months that Matthews is simply too good for his current level. Like their father team, Mighty Mussels’ relievers could not induce quiet outs against Blue Jays bats. Perhaps inspired by Matthews no longer eating them alive, Dunedin ran the kind of assembly line that would make Henry Ford proud—only their product was runs, not cars. The carnage ended with seven painful runs searing and ruining the ERAs of Johnathan Lavallee and A.J. Labas. Fort Myers’ tepid offense could offer no response. Outside of Rafael Cruz’s solo shot—a smoked 109.3 MPH missile—the Mighty Mussels could only muster an RBI walk in the 1st, totaling four hits over the 9-inning battle. DH Tucker Toman represented the best prospect on Dunedin’s squad; he singled and walked in four plate appearances. TWINS DAILY PLAYERS OF THE DAY Twins Daily Minor League Pitcher of the Day – Zebby Matthews Twins Daily Minor League Hitter of the Day – Hernán Pérez (ft. Noah Miller and Ben Ross) PROSPECT SUMMARY Here’s a look at how the Twins Daily Top 20 Twins Prospects performed: #1 - Brooks Lee (Wichita) - 2-for-6, 2B, R #2 - Royce Lewis (St. Paul) - 2-for-5, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, BB #3 - Emmanuel Rodriguez (Cedar Rapids) - 0-2, 2R, 2 BB, K #4 - Edouard Julien (Minnesota) - 3-for-5, HR, 2 2B, 2 R, 2 RBI, K #9 - Matt Wallner (Minnesota) - 4-for-4, HR, R, 3 RBI #13 - Noah Miller (Cedar Rapids) - 2-for-4, 3B, 2B, 3 RBI #19 - Yunior Severino (Wichita) - 2-for-5, R, RBI SUNDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS Omaha @ St. Paul (5:07 PM) - RHP Simeon Woods Richardson (0-5, 7.12 ERA) Wichita @ Springfield (6:05 PM) - RHP Chad Donato (1-3, 9.90 ERA) Wisconsin @ Cedar Rapids (1:05 PM) - TBD Fort Myers @ Dunedin (11:00 AM) - TBD Fort Myers @ Dunedin (30 Minutes Later) - TBD View full article

Rude of the Twins to soil an ode to Tina Turner like that. Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports Box Score Louie Varland: 6 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 3 K Home Runs: None Bottom 3 WPA: Byron Buxton (-.177), Michael A. Taylor (-.175), Donavon Solano (-.142) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) There were inklings from the start. We should have known that this would be an atypical game—more than usual for baseball—from the opening frame of whimsicality. Odd and with a strange rhythm, the Blue Jays and Twins slowly descended into their melee, subtly altering the standard rules of engagement to treat the dual-citizen fans to a unique game. It started in the first: George Springer doubled, eventually finding himself standing on third base with just one out—a prime chance to score. A Vladimir Guerrero Jr. grounder appeared a tantalizing chance for the former Astro to plate a run, and Springer revealed his hand, taking off for home, although with uneasiness. Carlos Correa—undaunted; evidently footless, if news reports were to be believed—snagged the chopper, chased down his unsure victim, and then gunned down a greedy Guerrero at first base to end the inning. And so the game started. The Blue Jays—victims of circumstance, a good team trapped in a nightmare division—entered the match fresh off a brutal, deflating loss to an elite Tampa Bay team. The players decided a meeting was in order; no coaches were allowed. The team was good, yes, but their context was not an excuse to their players and their demands. The meeting appeared to work. Two scoreless innings begat a fruitful offensive explosion; Kevin Kiermaier blasted a solo homer in the third before Bo Bichette, flowing and smooth, shot a ball to deep center field, adding two more runs to Toronto’s total. It was the culmination of Louie Varland’s troubles on Friday night. The righty was fine, effective, only two lame pitches away from finding shutout success. But such is the life of a pitcher and Varland—although unharmed in any other frame—eventually exited his start with a trio of runs to his name over six innings of work. He struck out three. Unfortunately for the Twins, their challenge for the day was Kevin Gausman, an ace by every metric perfectly capable of dominating the strike zone with ease. Yet the day’s unusual nature extended beyond baserunning casualties and ninth-hitter homers: Kevin Gausman couldn’t find the zone. He did at times—earning eight strikeouts along the way—but Minnesota lived with the punch outs, fine with the trade-off causing Gausman to throw more pitches than he would like. They ended with five walks off the starter; he entered the day with 11 on the season in total. Gausman’s day ended when Kyle Garlick smoked an RBI double to plate Minnesota’s first run. All things couldn’t be happy, though, and the Twins extended their bases loaded struggles by coming up empty in two trips to the plate. Home plate umpire Bruce Dreckman aided, failing to restrain himself from calling a ball a strike against Michael A. Taylor, swinging the game from a 3-2 match with the potential for more to a 3-1 game with the dead weight of lost potential crushing Minnesota’s shoulders. So we entered a battle of relievers. Emilio Pagán carried Minnesota for two frames, allowing no runs or hits while punching out three batters; he needed just 21 pitches. Toronto selected from their assortment of pitchers as well, sending out arms unable to escape the walking curse of their brethren while ultimately exiting harmlessly with a few extra baserunners to their name. Byron Buxton threatened to inch the game closer with a warning track warning shot, but the Twins could find no fortune in the 9th, falling in the same fashion that cursed the team in every other inning on Saturday. Notes: Louie Varland has thrown at least five innings in five of six starts for the Twins in 2023. Kevin Gausman's five walks were the most for him since another five-walk start on June 29th, 2021. Christian Vázquez's last extra-base hit came on April 13th. Post-Game Interview: What’s Next? The Twins and Blue Jays will play game two of the series on Saturday; Pablo López will start opposite Chris Bassitt and first pitch is at 1:10 PM. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet View full article