Matt Braun

The argument may not be so far-fetched. Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports Recent trade talks with the Marlins have spurned eye-opening news: the Twins are actively discussing trading Luis Arraez. The reports are not entirely shocking. Teams value young, controllable pieces, and when you enjoy a plethora of pitching riches—something few teams can claim—you can demand the world in return; a ragtag combo of Nick Gordon and Josh Winder will not get the job done. That’s the price of doing business. The Marlins are maximizing the return on their valuable pieces. But wait, it is shocking! Arraez is an All-Star just entering arbitration! What are we even talking about here? There’s an aesthetic brilliance to Arraez’s hitting, one that baseball sorely lacks these days. He’s not a Chris Johnson BABIP fluke: Arraez possesses the unique ability to sniff out hits, spraying line drives across the field with artistic flair and shocking consistency; his hit chart is as democratic as they come. When paired with an impressive skill to resist swinging at bad pitches, his complete batting package is superhuman, only lacking in power because the good Lord wouldn’t want to create a player that unfair. Throw in his age—he’s just 25 years old—and years of team control remaining, and it would appear crazy for a team to trade such a cornerstone. There’s more to baseball than hitting. Only one player can claim the DH spot on any given day, making the other eight players a dual threat, someone who must field as well as bat. Arraez isn’t particularly adroit at second or third—the two positions Minnesota tried him out at the most—and playing him in the outfield is some real cursed stuff, but the Twins did find him a home at first in 2022. Advanced defensive stats applauded Arraez, and he finished 2022 with the highest UZR/150 amongst first basemen with at least 500 innings. A victory for short kings everywhere. The standard for hitting at first base, though, is much higher than other positions. While Arraez is only behind Andrés Giménez, Jeff McNeil, and José Altuve, respectively, for wRC+ as a second baseman, seven first basemen are ahead of him in line; its defensive barrier of entry is lower. It’s a tradeoff, as most roster decisions in baseball are, but it’s one the Twins could understandably dislike, especially as the team sits on a bevy of infielders with varying degrees of the same problem. Think of it this way: what’s a peak Arraez season? His massive second half cool-down proves there’s still something left in his proverbial tank; perhaps a more consistent performance nets him a wRC+ in the high 130s, maybe touching 140. It would be an impressive season, but one that just hovers around the top 5 or so for first basemen, netting him around 4.0 fWAR. That’s a good player, but is it an unmovable one? Is it unreasonable to imagine a scenario where a healthy Alex Kirilloff bridges the gap, playing close enough to those totals that any value they get from Pablo López is gravy? It’s not a terrible inefficiency—there are worse things to have than an excellent defensive 1st baseman who also doubles as a top-ten hitter at the position—so if the Twins choose to keep Arraez planted, they aren’t hemorrhaging wins. But teams avoid atypical archetypes at 1st for a reason—there's only one Keith Hernandez, after all—and once you start dissecting the roster, cutting deep into the margins to look for upgrades, Arraez appears expendable, and the Twins could be well-suited to stomach losing him. View full article

Some of these guys will play on the 2023 Twins, so you may as well read about them. Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports As we have seen the past two seasons, the Minnesota Twins have needed more than just their 26-man roster to get through the season. In fact, they have not only used their 40-man roster, but another 20+ players each year. That is the reason why we care so much about offseason minor-league signings, many of them will get an opportunity with the Twins at some time during the season. Here’s a list of the 25 players invited to join the 40-man roster players in Ft. Myers for spring training: Brooks Lee and Austin Martin are the two headline names. Lee, the Twins’ 1st round pick last year, looks to rub elbows with major leaguers for the first time in his career. Martin, now playing in his second spring training, can prove that his AFL performance was not a fluke. Both players will fight for who can pick Carlos Correa’s brain the most. Beyond them are some exciting arms: Cody Laweryson—a gliding righty who struck out over 30% of batters at Double-A; Evan Sisk—a cross-bodied lefty reliever who owned a 1.57 ERA last season between Double-A and Triple-A; and Blayne Enlow, who cleared waivers on Friday and will be looking for a chance to re-establish himself as an impact arm. As the post notes, 13 players—Willi Castro (Tigers), Mark Contreras (Twins), Danny Coulombe (A's, Dodgers, Twins), José De Léon (Dodgers, Rays, Reds), Randy Dobnak (Twins), Grayson Greiner (Tigers, Diamondbacks), Ryan LaMarre (Red Sox, White Sox, Reds, Yankees, A's, Twins), Patrick Murphy (Blue Jays, Nationals), Chance Sisco (Orioles, Mets), Elliot Soto (Angels, Twins), Brock Stewart (Dodgers, Blue Jays), Tyler White (Astros and Dodgers), and Tony Wolters (Rockies, Cubs, Dodgers)—can claim previous major-league experience. There’s a good chance a few of these players will impact the Twins in 2023. If you’re looking for an Author’s Choice list of players to keep an eye on, it goes as follows: Laweryson, Stewart, and Sisco. Laweryson, while lacking in prominent tools, punches people out with a tricky plane—an upward one, sorry Bert—and intimidating swan-like limbs. Stewart owns over 100 forgettable innings with the Dodgers, but his fastball was sitting in the mid-90s last season, making him one of the first choices when a reliever inevitably bites it. Cisco is a former top prospect whose sheen hasn’t sparkled in years. He earned surprisingly few major league opportunities, and a fresh start could produce better results for the catcher. Certainly more players will be invited in the coming weeks, but who would you say are the leading candidates for Sire of Ft. Myers based on this list? Comment below. View full article

Chris Paddack has agreed to a contract extension with the Minnesota Twins that will keep him pitching for the Twins through the 2025 season. The three-year contract will delay Paddack becoming a free agent by one-year. Image courtesy of © Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports After coming to terms with the Twins earlier today on a one-year $2.4M deal to avoid arbitration, Chris Paddack agreed to a contract extension that will allow the team to keep him pitching for the Twins for 2+ more years when he returns from Tommy John surgery later this season, Twins Daily has learned. Financial details of the contract have not been disclosed, but it is expected to be worth $10-15M in total value. Remember Chris Paddack? Of everything that went wrong with the 2022 Twins, Paddack’s early-season promise and immediate surgery happened so quickly that an adept gaslighter could convince one that he never existed in the first place. Paddack’s career arc is well-documented. The 27-year-old former starting pitching phenom traveled to San Diego from Miami in a trade for—you're going to love this—Fernando Rodney. From there, he shot up prospect lists and became a popular pick to become a major league regular. His 2019 rookie season proved promising, as the youngster made the opening day roster by surprise and accrued 140 ⅔ quality innings. The future seemed bright. The future is also mean. Paddack’s fastball/changeup combo went from electric to the little shock that emanates from one of those fake gum gimmick toys. Paddack's numbers dropped with no useful third pitch in sight; however, his home runs continued to stay high, and both 2020 and 2021 were a wash. Feeling the itch to trade someone, A.J. Preller moved Paddack, Emilio Pagán, and Brayan Medina for Taylor Rogers and Brent Rooker, announcing that it would be someone else’s problem to fix the former future ace. Minnesota may have done that. Paddack carried a hilarious 1.72 FIP through five games—not giving up a homer will do that—and even appeared to have worked in an adequate slider to pair with his fastball and changeup. Then the elbow started barking. the Paddack now enjoys company in the double Tommy John club. No one wants to be a part of such a gathering. Three members of the Twins' projected starting rotation will be free agents at the end of the year. The Twins are gambling that, in an age where high schoolers undergo the operation, a second Tommy John surgery simply means a pair of scars, and Paddack can return to being a promising pitcher on a staff in need of younger blood. John Bonnes contributed to this story. View full article

Can't be mad at all. It's much better for baseball to have Cutch back as a pirate.

Something, something, the announcement we're all waiting for, something something Image courtesy of Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports A.J. Alexy is every reliever; every reliever is A.J. Alexy. The 6’4” righty—once part of Texas' return for Yu Darvish, and a 40+ FV prospect, according to Fangraphs—has “long had premium arm strength and a plus-flashing breaking ball,” according to Eric Longenhagen. But command has proved to be a mighty bugaboo, and Alexy’s ghastly walk rate has limited his major league success. Alexy will throw four pitches—a traditional fastball, slider, curveball, and changeup mix—with his slide piece as the dominant offering. Although he didn’t throw many MLB innings last season, the slider coaxed an impressive .237 xwOBA from batters, a number far better than his fastball; that pitch allowed a .508 xwOBA. The heater clocks in at 94.2 MPH, a little above the major league average. A new mechanical change—a shortened, spiral-like arm action reminiscent of Lucas Giolito—didn’t bear fruit in 2022, but the Twins see something they like in him; Alexy will join their yearly cast of upside relievers looking for a chance to prove something. In return, the Twins hand over Cristian Jimenez, an 18-year-old arm who put up solid numbers in the DSL in 2022. They also DFA’d Oliver Ortega, a recent waiver claim from the Angels, who they may not have even fitted for a jersey. It’s a classic short-term play by the Twins. Alexy—recently DFA’d by the Nationals—possesses the potential to aid the team now. The team can toss him out in low-leverage situations, slowly building up his confidence before potentially promoting him to pitch in later innings. Or, he won’t find the strike zone, and the Twins will DFA him before June. Or, they could DFA him later this week if a roster spot is needed. The line between Jhon Romero and Evan Phillips is thin. Alexy allowed two hits over his his first 11 MLB frames in 2021. View full article

I'd love to support Torii more, but it's clear that advanced stats don't buy that he's one of the greatest defensive center fielders of all-time; he's like outfield Derek Jeter, unfortunately.

It doesn't have a lot to do with Michael Wacha. Image courtesy of Gerry Angus-USA TODAY Sports A recent report in The Athletic, which reads more like an off-hand comment than a groundbreaking revelation, purports that the Twins have expressed interest in RHP Michael Wacha. Now, “expressed interest” is a favorite baseball term that can loosely define every style of relationship a team can have with a player. Thad Levine vaguely dreaming about Wacha could lead to the team “expressing interest.” The Phillies have “expressed interest” in Mike Trout for a decade. The term means nothing. The connection makes sense, though. The Twins have yet to sign a major-league pitcher; Wacha is an arm capable of accruing outs between reasonable levels of runs scoring. With a bunch of theoretical payroll space and Carlos Correa probably still signing with the Mets, the Twins should spend their money on something. It’s a perfect pairing. But we’ve been down this path before. J.A. Happ, Matt Shoemaker, Dylan Bundy, and Chris Archer are four other arms who once possessed some nebulous upside, enough to convince a professional franchise to pay them money for their pitching labor. What happened after those players signed is well-known; we don’t have to tread that path again. Wacha is his own man, though; it would be unfair—and illogical—to believe he would match those past pitcher’s sins just because he loosely fits their outline. The Red Sox, Mets, and Rays, teams run by baseball people far brighter than us casuals, looked at Wacha, glanced at his numbers, and believed in him enough to guarantee millions of dollars to the former Cardinal standout. These weren’t teams chasing a false promise; they fairly gambled that, with a few alterations, Wacha could provide enough production to bring their franchise value. The bet didn’t work for the Mets or Rays, but it worked enough for the Red Sox that one could generously declare their deal a success. So, Wacha could do the same for Minnesota; that possibility remains tangible. The issue is a baseball-specific sunk cost fallacy mixed with classic roster manipulation. Those past deals—beyond turning sour as each pitcher failed to play well—failed because the Twins continued to send those arms out to die. Bundy inhaled 140 real major-league innings. He’ll now slither into baseball obscurity on a minor-league deal with *insert team here.* Or he’ll become an ace. Baseball is funny like that. The Twins told Bundy to go get 'em so often because, well, they were paying him $4 million, and people like seeing a return on their investment, but also because of flexibility. Or, rather, a lack of it. In a naturally conservative institution like baseball, hitting the eject button on a player is a nearly unalterable act. Without those tasty minor-league options, a franchise has to sneak a player by other teams, hoping that no one notices that a capable arm is now free for anyone to acquire. When that fails because the Diamondbacks need someone to throw slop for them, the team takes a vicious hit to their depth. So Bundy stays because he’s somewhat usable. In that sense, Bundy is useful; every team unwillingly hands out innings to players they’d prefer to avoid starting—hopefully, Adam Wilk is enjoying life. It’s the nature of pitching. But Bundy also blocks others. Louie Varland remains in the minors because Bundy isn’t terrible; he certainly earned a few victories for the Twins, but is he so much better than Varland that the Twins should eschew the youngster in favor of the veteran? This was the essential issue of the 2022 Twins; no one was truly horrifyingly bad, but instead existed in a mediocre haven, making it difficult for the team ever to cut bait. At least Shoemaker made it clear he was cooked. Wacha is probably not better than Varland; that’s the article. If you sign a pitcher with a good chance at being below-average—and without disrespect, Wacha fits that mold—you create fake depth; at least Varland can go to St. Paul if he starts pitching poorly. With Wacha, you just have to grin and bear it, only cutting bait once he reaches unforgivable status. Or, in Twins shorthand, if he “Shoemakers” it. View full article

I don't believe I made any of those assumptions or said any of those things

My stance would be that they got historically fortunate that two teams failed to cross the finish line with him despite both deals reaching the formality stage.

The Twins continue to follow a path leading to nothing. Image courtesy of Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports One-year deals are an admission of fault. Either the market lacked quality, all trade routes fell through, or the internal options were so hideous that the team felt it necessary to promise a player pay for just a single year of their time. For the athlete, a one-year-deal represents one of two things: an opportunity to bounce back from a dreadful season, perhaps re-inflating one’s value before hitting the free market with a prettier sheen, or an acceptance of age, an understanding that father time’s inevitable march will render your talents useless. No team wants to lose out in a nebulous contract musical chairs, so the player Nelson Cruz’s it and agrees to one-year pacts before slithering away into retirement. Or he’ll sign with Pittsburgh. Teams love diving into these waters. If the contract busts, they don’t have to be the poor souls legally stuck to an albatross, and their job security only takes the slightest hit. It was a good bet, after all. If the deal works, they look like genius, clairvoyant decision-makers who can reap the benefits of a productive player while raking in compliments. In a land where Xander Bogaerts signs for 11 years, that’s a reasonable pool to visit. There’s an emptiness to these deals, though. While professional sports is a business, we like to create connections with players, perhaps fooling ourselves into ignoring the massive amounts of money that exchange hands to allow their athletic ability to shine. When Max Kepler mans right field for the millionth time in a Twins uniform, our shared experience builds a connection, one that draws people closer to their romantic idea of a hometown sports team. What relationship will we have with Joey Gallo? How can we fully love a player destined to leave? The player’s intentions become evident in this scenario. While Carlos Correa may become hands-on—which may not reflect well on him given the 2022 Twins’ record—other athletes may embody their hitman spirit, poisoning the clubhouse spirit with a selfish demeanor. The Twins, oddly, acknowledged this issue. Following the disappointing 2018 season, Derek Falvey admitted that their clubhouse grew a funky stink stemming from grouchy veterans on short-term deals. Logan Morrison and Lance Lynn were whiny and bad—that was what he wanted to say. In response to their problem, the Twins turned around and acted like they didn’t hear their own words. Nelson Cruz, Jonathan Schoop, and Martín Pérez signed up for a ride on the 2019 Twins bus—a booming home run tour of the United States—but that season appears fluky. A hyper-juiced ball? Two full seasons of below .500 play afterward? The only thing right about that year was the Yankees immediately spanking them the second October entered the equation. Once COVID neutered the 2020 season, the Twins hopped back onto the ball, signing a litany of average talent to one-year deals, setting themselves up for a disastrous season the team is still reeling from. J.A. Happ almost threw 100 innings for the team. He made Dylan Bundy sound like a good idea. The ultimate question is this: what’s the end goal? One-year contracts are supposed to plug holes, not dominate the team's structure; imagine a dam constructed out of duct tape. The guess is that the team is saving for some future move, but few long-term deals of that nature have come to fruition, and the only significant splash players—Josh Donaldson and Carlos Correa—are no longer Twins. Ehire Adrianza entered the batter’s box donning a Minnesota jersey more times than either of those players. They were able to nail down a Byron Buxton contract, although they seemed disappointed that they couldn’t trade him to Philadelphia for scraps beforehand. The Twins deserve credit for that signing, but his deal pays him $15 million a season—far less than the market rate for superstar talent. If anything, the agreement should fuel a spending spree: they have their star locked down for relatively little, add as many great players as you can. Even with little tied down in their books, the Twins remained hesitant to drop enough money to coax Correa back home. There’s no purpose to their choices. They’re saving money for a future in which they save more money. Maybe they’re looking even further forward, but there’s no guarantee that free agents down the road—enjoy all that money, Rafael Devers—actually become available. Until that big, non-opt-outable deal occurs, they’ll remain in this loop, always saving for a someday that never comes. View full article

With one clean move, Steve Cohen altered baseball. After already assembling a hivemind of talent capable of thumping a challenging NL East, the man richer than God signed Carlos Correa, and we all have to live with the consequences. Image courtesy of Frank Becerra Jr. / The Journal News / USA TODAY NETWORK Steve Cohen is a man outside of MLB. He views his team as a fan, not a businessman. Other franchises may penny-pinch, cry poor, or slice on the margins in a twisted strategic game dressed as analytical wisdom yet ultimately rooted in the almighty bottom line. Cohen is a different beast. He will stop at nothing to acquire the best talent the Lord placed on this Earth. “If it’s a few percent more, what’s the difference?” said the man who had just pledged to pay a guy over $300 million. He probably puffed a cigar while saying it. The natural reaction is one of disgust; the man just broke the sport, after all. Once the George Steinbrenner spending of the 90s and 00s gave way to the few remaining albatrosses left in MLB—enjoy retirement, Albert Pujols—teams finally saw through the free-agent haze, seeing it as fools gold. Contracts became wiser. It took four months for people to realize signing Manny Machado was a good move. An occasional Stephen Strasburg or Anthony Rendon wave will rock the boat, but its aim is true; smart teams are too savvy to crash. A man bombarding in, guns blazing, to sign a historic amount of elite free agents in reaction to losing to the Padres in the NLDS sets off alarms. This isn’t how teams are supposed to act. As we all know so well, franchises are supposed to Know Their Role, sign Their Guys—an appropriate amount of them—then play each other under a gentlemanly façade that this is The Best They Can Do. The Yankees stopped making the A’s their development team because it became uncouth in the public eye. That hurts business. People must somehow believe in a fair baseball league. The state approving one’s ability to drive coincides with the precise moment a rational being realizes that baseball is dementedly unfair, but the game’s beauty has tranced us all; we’re content with rationalizing the immense inequality as long as the product supplies its thrills. Cohen’s ultimate sin is that he would rather play a different game: if spending rules exist solely as tax, then why would you do anything other than spend as much money as you have? Who cares about spending $30 million a year when it takes 33 such contracts to hit $1 billion—a scratch against any owner’s vast wealth? Are his actions good for baseball? In the immediate future, no. Cohen’s Mets will win a thousand games in 2023 and—with permission from the baseball gods—bulldoze other powerhouses with such ease that it’ll be a joke to tell across generations. The Dodgers are speed bumps when Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander are your 1-2 punch, and your lineup has Mark Canha hitting 8th. Not even one of those good speed bumps either; they’re that worn-down crumble someone installed in a school parking lot 40 years ago that hasn’t received a fix since all funding goes to a new scoreboard for a perpetual 3-9 football team. But Cohen could be in for a long-term play; while he sees his actions as buying great players to add to his human trading card deck, he’s also applying pressure to other owners. This is the age of social media. Teams are more visible than ever. Any average dolt can hurl insults directly at a franchise’s social media account, bringing them closer to the people’s will than in the medieval times when talking with the king was impossible. Fans don’t have enough time to affect this off-season, but who knows what kind of weird pressure points they’ll press when a team lowballs a free agent in the age of a team possessing a nearly half-billion-dollar payroll. Or teams may ignore the noise until their bottom-line falls. Franchises are funny like that. This isn’t Cohen’s fault. Any of us poors would love to own our favorite team, churning through cartoon piles of money while our net worth remains iron-clad. The only thing Cohen broke was tradition; Baseball created spending rules based on inequality, added new ones for eye wash, then relied on their closed community of ownership to keep others in line so that the veneer remained intact. An outsider stomped on those rules; it’s up to baseball to react. View full article

There's a good chance that at least one of these players will find time on the Twins next season; read about what they can bring to the table. Image courtesy of Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports Here we are in mid-December. The Rule 5 draft has passed, and reports over the past week have shown the the Twins have made some minor-league signings. Here are some notes on those who have signed to this point, at least the ones that we have heard. No one gets overly excited about minor-league signings, but as we have seen in recent years, injuries and Covid have forced the Twins to play a lot of players. So these are not meaningless signings. C-Jair Camargo The one returning player to re-sign with the Twins. Camargo came to the organization in the Kenta Maeda/Brusdar Graterol trade before the 2020 season. Camargo split his season between Cedar Rapids and Wichita. He is a good athlete with a strong arm. He doesn't like to walk, and he has some swing-and-miss, but he has shown a lot of power 1B/DH-Tyler White Tyler White's name may ring a tiny bell; the first baseman collected over 800 plate appearances for the Houston Astros between 2016 and 2019, earning a World Series ring while slashing .241/.319/.420. White’s MLB career peaked with an excellent 2018 campaign where he collected 1.7 fWAR over 66 games, buoying his career total of 1.2. After a trade to the Dodgers in 2019, the Western Carolina University product failed to recapture his previous magic, bouncing between the KBO and three minor league systems in his search for a home. The 32-year-old White is your prototypical minor league free agent, but he did own a .900 OPS with Buffalo in 2021, perhaps hinting that his best baseball is not yet gone. RHP-José De León Finally, The Twins have acquired José De León. A crucial part of the Great Brian Dozier Trade Talks of 2016, De León is now, unfortunately, the tale of a pitching prospect gone awry. De León owns 48 MLB innings scattered across five seasons; his 18 1/3 frames in 2021 represent his highest single-season total. The culprit? Injuries. The Southern University product often endures extended bouts without time on the mound, never coming close to hitting his career high in innings set between A+ and AA in 2015 (114 ⅓.) De León’s stuff is good, so if he remains on the mound, he could boost a pitching staff always needing an extra jolt. RHP-Carlos Luna The Panamian native, Carlos Luna, crosses the border, trekking from Milwaukee’s system to Minnesota’s. Luna joined the Brewers as a 17-year-old, pitching deep in the recesses of Rookie Ball in 2014 and 2015 before missing all of 2016 and 2017 with (presumably) an injury. The 26-year-old stayed knocking on the door, putting up adequate numbers just shy of worthy of a cup of coffee; he pitched 109 1/3 innings at AA last season. Luna’s baseball peak occurred when he netted the final 12 outs of a combined no-hitter in 2021. RHP-Patrick Murphy A member of the Blue Jays and Nationals organizations, Patrick Murphy tossed 39 2/3 middling innings in the majors—mostly in 2021—and looks to start fresh with the Twins. Murphy owns a 96 MPH fastball, which renders any more analysis unnecessary. It’s unlikely that Murphy will suddenly learn command, but minor-league deals are pure upside moves by nature, so if he does, then the Twins can reap the rewards of an effective multi-inning reliever. Murphy punched out 26.1% of batters at AAA last season. View full article

I think it's the tricky fact that he was co-director of baseball operations and then assistant general manager during the period Carrasco pitched well, but who knows for certain

A Carlos Correa-sized hole now exists in the Twins' payroll, can they look to the trade market to fill it? Image courtesy of © Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports Through trading, the Twins can avoid convincing players to sign with them and instead use forced employment to remove consent from the equation. Does Javier Báez actually want to play in Minnesota? Too bad! The Tigers wanted some prospects, so off you go. Remember to pack some blankets. Let’s look at a few potential targets. This author would like to remind the readers that he did predict the Kyle Farmer trade, so either he’s more clairvoyant than previously understood, or the Twins front office solicits advice from a baseball fan site. For all our sake, let’s hope it’s the former. Javier Báez The Rudy Gobert of baseball, Báez remains a slick shortstop whose offensive methods lead to existentially draining whiffs but ultimately competent batting results. Báez secretly lopped a few points off his strikeout rate in 2022, but his famous power disappeared as well, and the Tigers’ sudden free-fall from a decent 2021 leaves them holding a piece they may prefer to trade. How convenient. Báez is likely to age poorly—have you ever heard of a free swinger who remained in the game well into their 30s—so swallowing five more seasons with a $120 million price tag is an overly aggressive attempt at a rebound. Still, he’ll probably be available, and the list of potential employees for the Twins shrinks daily. Carlos Carrasco In their efforts to sign every baseball player under the sun, Lex Luthor Steve Cohen’s Mets created an expensive, crowded starting rotation that may leave Carlos Carrasco out of the equation. This isn’t just speculation: the Mets are entertaining potential trades for their righty. Carrasco joining the Twins would be a fun reunion of sorts; Derek Falvey oversaw Carrasco’s growth into an excellent yet oddly underrated starter during his extended, fruitful peak in Cleveland. Carrasco has remained effective, shedding a handful of injuries (along with a frightening bout of leukemia in 2019) on his way to a good campaign with enviable peripherals (3.45 xFIP, 20th best amongst starters with 150 innings pitches.) The soon-to-be 36-year-old will receive $14 million next season before hitting the free-agent market. Usually, this author would fulfill the rule of threes and write about another fantastic third option that the Twins could acquire in a trade. That isn’t happening. Looking through the remaining “big” contracts yields a cruel reality: Minnesota has few options. Teams have become wiser these days; George Steinbrenner handing out millions like Costco handing out free samples doesn’t happen anymore, and franchises are less likely to anchor themselves to a truly brutal contract. For the Twins, this isn’t great, as the remaining contracts are albatrosses that no one should touch—Anthony Rendon and Stephen Strasburg —while the middle tier consists of reasonable deals that teams can afford to keep on their books. The pickings are slim. There's a difference between wisely absorbing a contract a team in a different situation would prefer to rid themselves of and tying an anvil to your ankle before taking a dip in the ocean. There are a few deals, mainly Rockies players, but predicting anything with Colorado is like arguing with a cat. You aren’t going to win and everyone will think you look silly. You could trade for Chris Sale and hope this is the year he rebounds, but it's best to leave headaches to your opponents. Minnesota remains in an awkward position; if they desire to inflate its payroll through trades, its choices are a Russian Roulette of old, injured, or old-and-inured players whose glory days last existed before the pandemic. Any useful deal would be complex or non-sensical. It’s a tragic grave, but it’s one that they dug for themselves by focusing their energy on Carlos Correa. Of course, they could always trade for Josh Donaldson. See some overpriced players that the Twins should consider? Share them below. View full article

The Twins recently won the 5th overall pick; how much fruit has that slot borne in MLB history? Image courtesy of © Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports For the Twins, the history of the 5th overall pick is short and straightforward: Nick Gordon and B.J. Garbe. Garbe—an outfielder drafted out of Moses Lake, Washington, in 1999—quickly flamed out in the minors with a bat made of balsa wood. Gordon, however, scrapped through some disappointing minor league seasons to break out with a 113 OPS+ on the Twins last season. He looks to be a future consistent big league ballplayer. Side ramble: that Moses Lake team in 1999 also featured future Twin and negative WAR enthusiast Ryan Doumit who went in the 2nd round that year. Jason Cooper, an outfielder also on that team, eschewed a 2nd round selection from the Phillies for Stanford and eventually ended up with the St. Paul Saints. As someone who has frequently driven through that town, Moses Lake is worthwhile only for the gas you need to make it beyond Spokane. To have three legitimate MLB prospects is unheard of. What a weird time. For major league history as a whole, the 5th overall pick contains fascinating pitchers and hitters, names whose baseball influence flows into the present day and who are necessary to tell baseball’s story. There are three MVP winners, two Cy Young winners, and six players with more than 40 rWAR. But, oddly, no player drafted 5th overall has made the hall of fame. Let’s look at the list of players with more than 10 rWAR: That top six is as strong of a collection of players as you’ll find; add them up, and you have 4 MVP awards, 1 Cy Young award, 28 All-Star selections, 18 Silver Sluggers, 11 Gold Gloves, and 3 Rookie of Year awards. Again, no player resides in the hall—although Dale Murphy owns a strong case, and Buster Posey will surely enter when he’s eligible—but these are all memorable and great players. Taking off the nostalgia glasses and looking at only recent picks tells a far less impressive tale: Kyle Tucker is good! Very good, in fact. Drew Pomeranz has been inconsistent, but an 11-season MLB career is far from disappointing. Then, errr, Jonathan India had a great rookie season in 2021! And Kyle Wright finally broke out in 2022! Alright, it’s a mixed class; there are two firmly established big league regulars with a sprinkling of talented players held back by a few flaws they have yet to shed. If you want to be optimistic, every player drafted 5th overall between 2004 and 2019—except for Matt Hobgood in 2009—has at least made the majors, so there’s a good chance the player the Twins draft will impact the big-league club in some fashion. While this article is fun, it means almost nothing; invisible forces don’t grip the 5th overall pick, cursing whomever the Twins take to be a Hall of Very Good player. Whoever that player is, their story is up to them, not based on a hex placed by Bubba Starling or Kyle Zimmer. There’s a good chance that player ends up a quality, everyday ballplayer for the Twins, and that’s something to be excited for. View full article