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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    Right - a lot of activity is still on hold because of the expired TV contract and unsigned Scott Boros free agent clients. Neither of those is really hole digging on the part of the Twins front office.
  2. arby58
    If it's Julien for one year of Burnes, the short answer is no. The long answer is "Hades" No.
  3. arby58
    It's hard to get too excited about the back end of a 40 man roster. That said, Severino had a big year offensively last year - at both AA and AAA. Brooks Lee is considered one of the team's top prospects, and while he and Severino spent about the same amount of time at AA and AAA last year, Severino was by far the more impactful offensive player at both levels. I know, Lee is better defensively and doesn't strike out as much (and is two years younger) but compare some offensive categories: combined OPS: Severino .898, Lee .808; HRs : Severino 51, Lee 16; RBIs they each had 84; runs Severino 80, Lee 84. Notably, they are both switch hitters, but Lee wasn't very good against LHP last year (.608 OPS versus .860 against RHP). Lee, on the other hand, was practically the same - .901 OPS versus RHP and .889 against LHP. Take a long look at him in spring training.
  4. arby58
    Yep, missed that one.
  5. arby58
    None since Mauer in the first round (although Jeffers was a second round pick). Before that, Matt LeCroy in 1997, Jason Veritek in 1993 (although they could not sign him), and Jeff Reed in 1980. Would have been interesting to see what might have happened had they signed Veritek. This is all conjecture, of course, but he hit the majors in 1998 and became the Red Sox' regular catcher in 1999. He wasn't in Mauer's class as a hitter, but he was a solid regular player. My guess is the Twins would have still drafted Mauer number 1.
  6. arby58
    Completely agree with this analysis. I've said it before and will say it again: one batting title as a catcher is outstanding, given the wear and tear on hands and legs (not to mention foul balls to the face mask), and three (in four years) is phenomenal. His MVP season was equally phenomenal. His peak-years JAWS score places him 7th all-time among catchers. Minnesota fans will never see that level of performance from a catcher again - at least not in my life.
  7. arby58
    You nicely summarized Joe Mauer as a class act. I grew up watching another class act as a young boy - Harmon Killebrew. They were different players but similar people - both humble, kind, soft spoken, but tremendous competitors. Joe made it look so easy that some casual fans took that as nonchalance, and that's too bad. That's what happens sometimes when you are a supremely gifted athlete who probably could have made the HOF in two sports - and at least played D1 ball in three. I'm perfectly happy to debate Joe's on-field HOF-worthy accomplishments with anyone. When you put up with the tremendous wear and tear on your body that catching does, and you win 3 batting titles in a stretch of 4 years, when no other modern-day catcher has won more than one, and you combine it with 3 Gold Gloves, 5 silver sluggers, 6 All-Star games, an MVP and 4 times in the top 10 in MVP voting, all as a catcher - that's enough. JAWS agrees, placing Mauer as the 7th best catcher of all-time. That's a Hall of Famer.
  8. arby58
    IF they get a pitcher who can eat innings (you'd certainly like 170 as Sears provided) and be reasonably effective, they might consider moving either Varland or Paddock to the BP, where they both have the stuff that can make them an effective high leverage pitcher.
  9. arby58
    That's an understatement. Hicks had so much trouble from the left side at the end of his prior Twins service that he briefly stopped switch hitting.
  10. arby58
    Sooner or later there is going to have to be a decision on who plays regularly and where. Lee is a bit of the odd man out at the moment, IF Julien is seen as the regular 2B and Correa and Lewis are at SS and 3B. While most of the scouts would agree with the first three in the pecking order for the Twins, I suspect that Lee could wind up elsewhere via trade more quickly than 1 or 3 on the list.
  11. arby58
    There's a very nice analysis of Lee at MiLB Analysis by Nick Richards. He delves into the numbers for last season and has the warning that "The scouts love him, but so do lefty pitchers. Was he really climbing out of the Triple-A crater, or was that noise?" He then suggests that "Brooks Lee needs to repeat Triple-A and do at the level what he did at Double-A: slowly but surely improve." He concludes with "So he will get on base and have a good BA, but his power will be only solid, and don't expect speed. A decent prospect, but not a world-changing one." That sounds about right to me. The difference between Julien and Lee is Julien isn't a prospect - he proved to be an excellent MLB hitter in 2023, with a 130 OPS+. If the Twins had a team full of 130 OPS+ hitters last year, they might have won the World Series.
  12. arby58
    I will grant you that Martin is much more 'fleet of foot' than Arraez. Still, if you mostly hit singles, you generally need at least two more constructive offensive things to happen to score a run (unless the guy behind you is a big bopper and hits a HR). You need two more singles, a single and a double or a double and a single, a stolen base and a base hit, a sacrifice and a base hit, etc. I will also grant you that Martin may steal his way into scoring position, and that is a plus - as it was with Taylor last year. We will see about Martin, but so far he looks pretty punch less and doesn't hit a high enough average to compensate for that.
  13. arby58
    If he were coming out of high school, the expectations would be lower, but he played 3 years of Division 1 college baseball. I'm not down on him, but I think Baseball Prospectus' ranking of him (52) is about right. He isn't a phenom. He needs a full year at AAA, and then we'll see. I'm a bird in the hand guy, and the bird in the hand, having done it at the MLB level (130 OPS+ last year), is Julien.
  14. arby58
    Sure, but the two are connected. If you get on base and it is mostly first base, it is a lot harder to score you from there than if you regularly hit doubles (and obviously if you hit a home run). That's part of why Arraez, for all his great batting average traits, did not land near the top of the league leaders for runs scored last year.
  15. arby58
    I have more confidence that Ober has not hit his ceiling. His height and release point make him a unique pitcher - there are very few 6'9" pitchers (more likely to be rebounders). His falling off last year was likely to be because of hitting his innings pitched ceiling, which should become less of an issue as he gets more innings pitched. Ryan is just a solid 3 starter, IMHO, until he gets his fastball percentage in high leverage situations down. There are few starting pitchers who get by on a two pitch mix, which no doubt contributes to the balls leaving the ballpark thing with him. I tend to think Varland's ceiling (throws harder, more pitch mix) is higher than Ryan's. That said, happy to hand him the ball every fifth day - but maybe not the playoffs.
  16. arby58
    People seem really high on Lee, but so far he hasn't exactly torn up the minor leagues. A combined .808 OPS last year between AA and AAA is decent, but it was .737 at AAA. Granted, he is young for that league - I fully expect him to play nearly all of 2024 at St. Paul. We'll know better then - but I tend to think his ceiling is not 'perennial All-Star.'
  17. arby58
    Several players moved up from the minors last year and made positive contributions. Obviously, that included Lewis, Julien and Wallner, but it also included Varland and Funderburk. When you add that many players in a year, it is going to dilute the 'seasoned prospects' list.
  18. arby58
    Lee hit .237 in 168 plate appearances in AAA last year. Julien hit .295 in 170 plate appearances in AAA last year. Then Julien went up to the majors and put up a 130 OPS+ in 408 plate appearances.
  19. arby58
    Yeah, there isn't much that is making the top of national lists. Baseball Prospectus is out with their top 101 for 2024 list, and only three Twins make it - Jenkins is 16, Lee is 52, and Rodriguez is 62. Ouch. By contrast, Texas has two in the top 10. Detroit has 5 on the list (including 17, 22, 24). Others in the division are even worse - KC has 1 (96), White Sox 2 (11, 78). Cleveland also has 3 (31, 37, 57). Lee's ranking suggests maybe he wouldn't garner the haul in a trade that some think he will. Of course, other rankings will differ.
  20. arby58
    Agreed. I'm more inclined to deal Lee - Julien has proved it at the MLB level, but there are those who value Lee's upside potential more (and he has more positional flexibility). Given that Correa isn't moving in the near future, that positional flexibility isn't that great for the Twins but might be for another team. That's the perfect storm to move him rather than Julien - more value to another team than what he provides to the Twins.
  21. arby58
    Julien, as a rookie, had a 130 OPS+, an .839 OPS, 2.6 WAR in just 338 ABs and was 7th in rookie of the year voting. He's hit at every level of minor league ball as well - it better be more than just a 'young, good, cheap' starting pitcher to take that bat out of the lineup for the foreseeable future.
  22. arby58
    The difference between the two is Kirilloff has proven to be a better MLB hitter. His OPS+ last year was 117, and for his career it is 104. Larnach was 98 and 95. That's above average versus below average in about the same number of at bats. The issue with Kirilloff is injuries rather than hitting ability.
  23. arby58
    I had the same hope regarding walk rate last year. We will see. His 'not figured it out yet' is why I don't believe the Twins will trade Kepler. Polanco, Farmer, maybe even one of Lee or Julien, but their outfield depth is a year away.
  24. arby58
    There is no general manager who, based on Mauer's performance behind the plate, would have contemplated moving him to right field 'just in case there are concussion issues.' The comparative advantage that Mauer offered as a decent defensive catcher and an awesome offensive one are far greater than would have been the case as a decent offensive and defensive right fielder. Besides, injuries happen at every position - and even while running the bases (hello, Justin Morneau). There is no 'tragedy of Joe Mauer' any more than there is the 'tragedy of Dale Murphy' (a dominant OUTFIELDER whose career was cut short by injuries). If we want to talk tragedies, we should talk Thurman Munson, or Roberto Clemente, or Lyman Bostock.
  25. arby58
    There isn't a lot to give you confidence that Larnach will figure it out. Besides the hitting aspect, both Kepler and Wallner are better outfielders and baserunners. On the hitting side, Larnach's career OPS+, with over 600 at bats, is 95. He's also stuck a bit in that all three (including Kepler and Wallner) are left-handed hitters, and Larnach performs abysmally against left handed pitchers (his small sample size OPS last year was .412, and for his career it is .569). He probably only gets ABs against right handed pitchers as the DH or if either of the other corner outfielders needs a day off. Sure, he hits AAA pitching well, but that doesn't seem to translate to the MLB level.
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