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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    Rose bet on MLB, and an investigation found he bet on at least 50 Reds games in 1987, at a minimum of $10,000 per day, according to Bleacher Report. I know keeping jerks out of the HOF would be an impossible task, but when you so blatantly flout the rules of the game, there are consequences. Fine with me if it also keeps Beltran out of the HOF.
  2. arby58
    I like a lot of these - although I'm thinking more like 88-90 wins. The one I'd take you on is still Buxton (and I'm a big fan of his). Only 1 season with more than 92 games played makes it tough to expect 120. The big one though - he's never had more than 51 RBI - expecting a 50 percent increase is brave. So sign me up for the under on that bet in its entirety.
  3. arby58
    So you want them to sign Montgomery, but you aren't frustrated because the payroll went down? How are those compatible? I also highly doubt that Montgomery is signing a one-year contract with anybody. He may sign a three year deal with player options, but that is not a one-year contract. It is also not going to be for peanuts.
  4. arby58
    This is serious cherry picking. Why did you stop at 10? The answer is because only 6 of the top 15 - those above the league average - made the play-offs. In other words, you had teams with below average payrolls making the play-offs as often as those with above average payrolls. The White Sox were 15th and the Twins 16th, go figure. https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/2023/
  5. arby58
    Mine too. If they have too many players for the middle infield and third base, use that capital for other positions. Julien is not a first baseman - the Twins appear to have learned that at A-ball level, as he hasn't really played it since (other than a cameo with the Twins). Besides, he and Kirilloff are both left handed hitters who rake RHP and don't do nearly as well against LHP. No reason to think Julien is a better fit there than Kirilloff.
  6. arby58
    Which means the Twins must be pretty good as well. I agree - the young talent that is now stranded at St. Paul could have started for the Twins a few years ago. The 'good' news is it's a long season, and there will be injuries.
  7. arby58
    First, KirilIoff 'showed his game' last year when not injured, especially against RHP, with an OPS of .858. Given that Lee is also considerably better against RHP, they are not a logical platoon, so i doubt they are in competition for a spot, Lee has not played first base in college or the minor leagues, and some of his value is as a defensive player. Second, the Twins seem pretty set on second base being Julien's best position, and I don't see them moving either around.
  8. arby58
    60 day? Both of them? I'd take that bet.
  9. arby58
    That was not the way the Twins rolled last year - both Ober and Varland were called up after other starters went on IL rather than juggling the rotation. I get the feeling the Twins prefer to maintain that sort of regularity - which also can give their key starters a bit of a break now and then (in terms of extra days between starts), which may help them later in the year.
  10. arby58
    Some of the worst owners of major league sports franchises are those that treat it like a hobby toy. The Dan Snyders of the world make horrible decisions that they can justify because it's their money that they are losing. In baseball, you can pretty well slot teams into categories based on the size of their market and potential revenue. Teams don't get out of their slots all that often, and the Twins have generally aligned with where you would expect them to be. Until baseball imposes a salary cap (maybe never), if you want to pull for the big money spenders, you know where to go. As I have noted before, it doesn't necessarily guarantee success - the three teams with the largest payrolls in MLB last year all missed the play-offs.
  11. arby58
    The conversation about Santana playing close to every day doesn't have to mean he takes ABs from Kirilloff - I specifically said he would not elsewhere on this topic. However, if they are both in the lineup, my guess is Kirilloff is DH, because Santana is a better first baseman. This 'never against righties' for Santana is hyperbolic - he had a 98 OPS+ against RHP last year and hit 17 home runs. The 'never against a handed pitcher' is Kirilloff and LHP, where he had a .482 OPS last year.
  12. arby58
    Baseball Reference dot com. for WAR. The rest of the stats are public knowledge - he had a good year last year in terms of HRs, RBIs, OPS+. Maybe the Twins actually scouted him a bit and went further than looking at prior year stats?
  13. arby58
    Kirilloff last year was horrible against LHP - .482 OPS.
  14. arby58
    This team sort of reminds me of the Timberwolves. Last season, after the Rudy trade, they underperformed but still made the play-offs - but both Rudy and KAT were hurt off and on and never really got the chance to jell. The T-wolves made one (seemingly inconsequential) trade, picking up a 'past his prime' point guard (Conley), and there was a fair amount of criticism of the front office. This year, of course, they have the second-best record in the NBA and have already matched their win total from last year. Why? Healthy Rudy and KAT, emergence of a superstar in Ant, and that 'old guy' Conley runs the offense very well and contributes clutch baskets. Twins, if they have healthy seasons from Correa and Buxton, and if some of the 'old guys' (ala Santana or various pitchers) contribute, they could be in a similar situation. It is entirely possible that Royce Lewis could be on a superstar track this year (again, if he can avoid injuries), and young pitchers (I think Ober in particular) can be expected to progress. Yes, that is a lot of 'ifs' but the T-wolves show how it can work out.
  15. arby58
    I think that is a little harsh. Last year, he had 2.7 WAR - would have tied for 3rd on the Twins. He had 23 HR, only Kepler's 24 were more for the Twins. He had 86 RBI - that would have been first on the Twins (by 20!). He had a 103 OPS+, meaning he was above league average. Throw in a good glove at first base, and it doesn't look like time has 'passed him' yet. Granted, it may this year, but that would not be based on last year's performance.
  16. arby58
    I assume Santana will play close to 100 percent of the time against LHP (and Kirilloff not very much, given his .482 OPS against them last year) and play first base. I agree that Kirilloff will be in the line-up against RHP close to 100 percent of the time. While I don't think Santana will take AB from Kirilloff against RHP, he wasn't that bad last year against them - he hit 17 HRs off them and had an OPS+ of 98. IF he is in the line-up against a RHP, he'll generally play 1B and Kirilloff will probably DH. Santana is a better 1B defensively. At least that's my take on it.
  17. arby58
    It's also funny that lots of people complain about Twins players who strike out a lot. MAT last year struck out 130 times - third most on the team to Gallo (142) and Correa (131). Gallo did walk 48 times, MAT only 26. Gallo had a poor OBP of .301, still higher than MAT's .278. They both had 21 HRS, Gallo in 282 at bats, while MAT had 355. Gallo had a .741 OPS and a 101 OPS+, while MAT was .720 and 94. Sure, MAT played decent centerfield, but the offensive vilification of Gallo and deification of MAT last year is bizarre.
  18. arby58
    There is another difference, in that Taylor will be 33 this year and Margot 29. This makes the roster younger in comparison to last year.
  19. arby58
    Right - fans are fickle.
  20. arby58
    Had to be a Freudian slip - meant to say Larnach will take his spot in St. Paul.
  21. arby58
    Correa is going to play SS for at least several more years. Miller has three years in the minors and has a career .220 BA and .644 OPS. Love the glove, but the teams that win in the MLB have shortstops who can both field AND hit. Miller is a long way from proving he can do that. It's notable the prospect the Twins got back in the trade currently grades out about the same at the minor league level as Miller. Meanwhile, the Twins are trying to win now, and they need a right-handed outfielder who can play all three positions - mission accomplished.
  22. arby58
    The Dodgers preferred Hernandez - and some of the commentary (such as on ESPN) is the Dodgers believe Hernandez gives them more positional flexibility. The Twins already have a 'swiss army knife' in Castro, but a veteran outfielder who can play all three positions is what the Twins needed. Both teams got what they needed - the Dodgers freed up the $4 million to keep them from going even deeper into luxury tax hades, and the Twins got a proven right-handed outfielder who can play all three positions.
  23. arby58
    I remember - part of why I used him as an example. For that matter, Kepler was 'blocking' talent last year too, according to lots of the GMs on this forum.
  24. arby58
    Maybe some balance here? Margot has career WAR of 12.2, and even last year, a down year, it was 0.6. Jake Cave last year had a WAR of -0.1 and has a career WAR of 2.1. Garlick had a WAR last year of -0.1 and a career WAR of 0.0. Stevenson last year had a WAR of 0.1 and a career WAR of 0.4. If you were a GM and choosing these retreads over Margot, you'd be committing professional malpractice.
  25. arby58
    Which 'younger guys' does this block? Certainly not Larnach, because he can't play CF. For that matter, Larnach is 27 and the 'old guy' blocking him is 29. Martin? He's barely played at the AAA level so far and while he is making progress, he doesn't look MLB ready yet. Margot is a proven major leaguer. When you're wanting to compete for a title, you want guys like that around - like Solano last year.
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