TwinsAce

If our new budget is $125 million - $140 million, I think this shows we "could" keep both Polanco and Kepler next year and still sign a CF/OF for $10-$12 million, have money for various bullpen and bench guys with $1-3 million each, and trade (or sign) a SP for $10 million. I haven't looked enough at trade options for pitchers, but the salaries could run from $3 million to $15 million (or $25 million for Glasnow, which seems like a stretch now.) The main subtraction here is Farmer, but if you went for a different CF option (Taylor?) at closer to $6-$9 million, you could keep Farmer instead of the Solano slot. I think this would come down to how much the Twins want to push Lee to MLB level (or have Lewis backup SS with other 3B options like Miranda.) CF comes down to how ready they are for Martin. The biggest takeaway for me is that the Twins still have pretty good flexibility and could surprise with a major signing. However, the larger the signing, the more they might end up trading Farmer, Polanco, and/or Kepler. (Kepler seems the least likely to be traded IMO.) And matching what they have said so far, it seems likely they trade for pitching to help fill out some of the depth. And of course, expect minor league deals to surprise and push like Stewart or Castro. (Or late deals like Solano.) C: Ryan Jeffers ($2.30M) 1B: Alex Kirilloff ($1.70M) 2B: Jorge Polanco ($10.50M) 3B: Royce Lewis ($0.77M) SS: Carlos Correa ($33.33M) LF: Matt Wallner ($0.77M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Max Kepler ($10.00M) DH: Edouard Julien ($0.77M) 4th OF: Willi Castro ($3.20M) Utility: Solano type guy ($3.00M) Utility: Kevin Kiermaier ($12.00M) Backup C: Christian Vazquez ($10.00M) SP1: Pablo Lopez ($8.25M) SP2: Joe Ryan ($0.77M) SP3: Bailey Ober ($0.77M) SP4: Chris Paddack ($2.53M) SP5: Trade - Edward Cabrera?? Mitch Keller?? Freddy Peralta?? Maeda signing? ($10.00M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.77M) RP: Brock Stewart ($0.77M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.77M) RP: Jorge Alcala / Minor League Deal ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($3.00M) RP: Minor League Deal (Cole Sands?) ($1.00M) RP: XYZ Pitcher - Pagan? ($3.00M) RP: Kody Funderburk / Moran ($0.77M) Payroll is 8.84% under budget

For someone like Gray, who has talked about retirement, I could see a team getting fancy with an extra year tacked on to help spread out the money. It just sounds like 3 years and $20 million / year might be the base, so would it need to be 5 years and $85-90 million? Either way, this is a fun and bold plan that goes after 2 top pitchers.

2B: Edouard Julien ($10.50M) Of note - you'd actually end up over $10 million under the budget since Julien's number was still Polanco's number. :)

Who are you hoping for back from Polanco?

Right - I also see one year where he is pitching and then injured and another where he is building back from injury. That doesn't mean he won't continue with a FIP close to 5, but I think he has more in his tank.

It is possible and probable they end up trading or signing more guys for next year. They seem to end up signing 2 SPs when there is only 1 spot, but this seems more like a minor league deal this year vs. starting roster. This is also excluding the usual 4-10 minor league deal signees that at least 1-3 end up pushing the roster in spring training due to injuries or performance. Bullpen is the area I can see have 2-3 new guys, but I doubt any of them are big signings.

Yes, better than the current Dallas. Dallas hasn't had WAR over 2 or ERA+ over 100 since 2020 and only had 2020 (and maybe 2015) to compare to what Ryu did in 2018-2020. Ryu seems like a 2-3 WAR pitcher at this point with an ERA+ of 100-10+, but has shown the potential for more. The downside is that he probably is closer to 5 innings than 6+. However, this isn't that far off from Sonny Gray.

I think this ends up at about $160 million ($159.50??), so slightly less than 6% overbudget. If it wasn't for the Twins TV contract issue, I would think one could push ownership to this level. Curious to see what happens though.

I like the idea of going after one of the top pitchers on the market. This is hopefully with one of Jordan Montgomery/Gray/Yoshinobu/Rodriguez /Stroman filling in that rotation spot for about $20-$23 million. However, this restricts a lot of the other moves to more supplemental depth moves or trades. I still have enough to throw at Kevin Kiermaier, who was mentioned with the Twins recently as a potential fit. Instead of Moran, who I don't trust, I have a random bullpen guy for $1.5 million. I might push for that to be Pagan for closer to $3 million. Competing with Sands would also be other minor league type deal guys, looking for the next Brock Stewart. If Kiermaier doesn't work, I'd probably pivot to putting the money in the bullpen or a surprise bench piece and promoting Martin sooner than later. Bullpen guys I'd monitor the price for includes Diekman, Stephenson, Reynaldo Lopez, Keller (minor league deal??), Maton, Neris, Stanek, Stratton, Chavez, Edwards Jr, Kelly, Melancon, and Suter. If I whiff on the top pitchers and/or Kiermaier, another route would be to go crazy and surprise people by signing Bellinger and then the 2nd tier of SPs would be Hyun-jin Ryu, Maeda, and Shota Imanaga. (Heaney?) This would hopefully be a similar swap of money, but would require more longer term $$ with probably 5-7 years with Bellinger vs. 2-5 for the top pitchers. I'm open to trading Farmer or Polanco, but see the value in keeping Kepler as a #6 hitter ideally. Farmer and Polanco are nice problems to have. Farmer could be moved if the payroll is tight and we find a good RP deal. I'd be okay with Lewis/Lee as the backup SS if need be. C: Christian Vazquez ($10.00M) 1B: Alex Kirilloff ($1.70M) 2B: Jorge Polanco ($10.50M) 3B: Royce Lewis ($0.77M) SS: Carlos Correa ($33.33M) LF: Matt Wallner ($0.77M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Max Kepler ($10.00M) DH: Edouard Julien ($0.77M) 4th OF: Willi Castro ($3.20M) Utility: Kevin Kiermaier ($9.00M) Utility: Kyle Farmer ($6.60M) Backup C: Ryan Jeffers ($2.30M) SP1: Pablo Lopez ($8.25M) SP2: Joe Ryan ($0.77M) SP3: Bailey Ober ($0.77M) SP4: Chris Paddack ($2.53M) SP5: Jordan Montgomery/Gray/Yoshinobu/Rodriguez/Stroman ($22.00M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.77M) RP: Brock Stewart ($0.77M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.77M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($3.00M) RP: Cole Sands ($0.77M) RP: XYZ Pitcher ($1.5M) RP: Kody Funderburk ($0.77M) Payroll is 1.59% under budget

Also - I have a few friends who are Atlanta fans. They groaned each time in the playoffs that Rosario was batting and were upset at the manager at times for not having a pinch hitter option when Rosario was up. I don't understand the love for Rosario by certain Twins fans. I get it if you are a fan of a player. Lew Ford was fun to cheer for too. But the front office was right to move on from him. (Like Jmlease1 says above.)

I was trying to sift through the potential trade options at 1B and came up with Brandon Drury. Since it is the Angels, I figure anything is possible, but I doubt he would be traded. (Drury grew up an Angels fan.) Seems like Drury would be similar to Solano in some ways except with a lot more power, better defense, better speed, and similar flexibility. Downside is more chase/whiff/k% and less OBA since Drury doesn't walk. He also has spent most of his time at 2B, so in some ways, he would be similar to our current 2B logjam. With that in mind, I anticipate the current roster providing most of the 1B ABs next year unless they are concerned about AK.

In regards to the offseason check list, I think a #1-2 type starter (similar to Gray ideally, but possibly the next bracket down) is high on the list. They have done a great job with offseason pitching trades, so if this works, great. I would feel a little disappointed if the biggest pitching move this offseason was closer to a Bundy type #5-6 guy vs. someone more trustworthy. And I would say CF is next on the list. Based on the last few years, I doubt they will let CF be just Buxton, Martin, Lewis, Gordon, etc. I also don't see Castro being their MAT next year where he could play 100 games in CF. But depending on how they feel about Martin, they also don't seem likely to sign someone for more than 1-2 years. Everything else seems more manageable or typical. RH OF bat? Depends on the market - too bad Gordon wasn't a RHB. RH IF bat? Maybe, maybe even Farmer or Miranda. Bench player? Likely via minor league deal or $2 mil Solano type deal. Mid relief? Possibly Pagan, but probably a flyer on someone.

Honestly, I think my biggest gripe is that there seemed to be too many ABs where we watched middle-middle mistake pitches go right down the plate without swinging. This seemed to get slightly better towards the end of the season, but still was a lot worse compared to other teams. If they can get back to destroying hitter pitches...no reason they can't increase their offense. In too many of the games against Houston, it was getting completely caught off-guard by the pitch sequence, etc. I could care less about strikeouts if they make a good swing and are beat by an amazing pitch. Or if they don't pull the trigger in a full count when the ump made a bad call. I just want less confused faces at the plate.

See Kepler, 2020-2022. Didn't strike out super often, put the ball in play, but stunk because he didn't hit it hard in the air and it ended up on the ground.

The same Eddie Rosario who has been worth -0.3 WAR since being with ATL? He had a great hot streak in 2021 of 33 games that then led to an amazing postseason and NLCS MVP against the Dodgers. But outside of that, I would argue he looks exactly like we would expect. Roughly league average batting with decent pop and declining defense as he gets older. I would expect Polanco to have decent offensive stats around league average or slightly above at times, some injuries, and declining defense in the years to come. The bigger issue when you move on from a league average player (and long-time vet and fan favorite) is to replace them with a younger player who can perform at league average with upside for more OR find a vet who is better than the one you replaced. The issue for the Twins with Rosario was that the replacements struggled after he left.

I have noticed several times this year where the IF is in and they have been able to cut the run off at the plate, but sometimes I am surprised they don't just concede the run by playing back. It feels like if you bring in a middle reliever, you are acknowledging that you could give up a few runs the next few innings. If you brought in Sands or a longer reliver, then you are hoping for innings with the potential for 0-4 runs scoring. But by playing in, they had risk of missing outs and prolonging the inning. So why let the inning potentially go long because you can't get the easy outs at first? This one always seems like a hindsight judgment call, so hard to know. But like you said, when I watched the replay and saw the ball go to Correa and the runner almost at 2nd, that really should have been inning over and down by just 1.

I'm not sure there is much difference between 4-10 on some of these lists. My lists probably has a tier 2 that breaks at 9.

Brooks Lee What's not to love??Walker Jenkins Could easily switch with Lee due to higher upside, but Lee's AA and AAA success makes him #1 still.Emmanuel Rodriguez Still super young and doing better after a rough start to the year.Marco Raya Slightly worried, but still so young at such a high level.Charlee SotoBrandon Winokur I'm drinking the Kool-Aid after his hot start and potential ability to also play the infield.Austin Martin Starting to look solid again and has the speed and contact tools.David FestaTanner SchobelConnor Prielipp Might seem high for someone with so few innings, but hopefully can avoid the Matt Canterino path.Danny De AndradeCory Lewis Who doesn't love a pitcher who also can throw a knuckleball successfully.Luke KeaschallKala'i RosarioYunior Severino Seems similar to CEH in some ways where the power potential is there. I think it will all come down to adjustments at the MLB level and who he gets the opportunity with. CJ Culpepper CJ and Cory Lewis are similar in my mind and also close to several I couldn't quite make room for in the rankings (Zebby Matthews, Tanner Hall, Headrick, Nowlin, etc.) Really curious how he will do at AA and AAA down the road.Yasser Mercedes Jose and Yasser are similar to me. Both are high upside, but right now, the floor is lower than someone like Kala'i or Severino.Jose Rodriguez See above for Yasser, except more power and less 5 tools.Simeon Woods Richardson Still hopeful, but fastball seems hittable.Jair Camargo Seems like hitting has clicked the last 2 years and is at AAA, so surprised he doesn't get more love in top 20 and top 30 lists.

Ha - I had to double take at this one, but then I remembered that Zach Neto passed over Triple A in April. Both accurate and also not as aggressive as the Angels somehow. Either way, I'm glad Lee is at AAA already. Someone out there is probably wondering why the Twins haven't promoted Jenkins to MLB yet...oh wait.

I know it makes sense in the draft world of recent years, but it is always crazy to see how closely the Twins use their draft pool. 10 players (not counting our 1st unsigned pick....) have left just 4,500 in pool money. I was curious how close it was in the worse case scenario that Jenkins doesn't sign and we can throw money at Sam Parker and Ashton Larson. "A team that outspends its pool by 0-5 percent pays a 75 percent tax on the overage." So subtracting $7,139,700 from our pool, I believe that means they could throw currently $360,430 (5%) + $4500 + $150,000 (each) at one of Sam or Ashton if they wanted. Right? Not likely since the Twins have never done that, but $500k might get Sam or Ashton to think twice. For Jenkins, they have $7,861,615 that they should be able to spend on him within the 5%, which, as others have said on Twitter (including JD Cameron), can push Jenkins over Max Clark's $7.7 million. Seems doable, but definitely opens up a new tactic for agents against the Twins future draft picks if they see they are willing to pay the tax. (Still seems like a unique scenario with 5 #1 pick type players, but?) The tax seems worth it vs. having the #6 pick next year.

I was expecting at least 3 players in the top 2-3 in the AL at their position based on the title. Instead, this tells me we have no candidates for the Gold Glove, especially with Greinke dominating the pitcher role. (Unless he is traded to the NL?) I do think we have some solid players on defense, with our catchers, Correa, Taylor, and Kepler leading the charge.

It is possible to lose a trade for a pending FA, but it is a lot harder, especially if the team is not anywhere close to making the playoffs and they tried to sign the extension the previous offseason. However, the ability to sign a player to an extension might reflect more on the original team (whether market, location, team standing, or front office) vs. results of the trade. I think the main thing to keep in mind for pending FAs getting traded is how the team did the rest of that current year, how the player traded was doing both before and after the trade, if the return for the trade seemed fair or accurate compared to similar deals, and if there would have been a qualifying offer draft pick. Even with how a player does before/after the trade though should almost be averaged out, since the new environment can often impact a player different ways, both for the positive and negative. In some cases, we might hear rumors that a player was almost traded to another team and the potential return. (Johan Santana, Brian Dozier, etc.) In those rare cases, where the rumor seems to be accurate, it adds another way the team could win or lose a trade if the potential return far outproduces the actual return.

Clase doesn't deserve to go. He has low strikeout totals and has blown way too many saves this year. Duran also doesn't necessarily deserve to go, even though it seems obvious to Twins fans. It is really hard to make the All star roster as a reliever and you have to have a near perfect first half (or a ton of saves apparently.) I am glad both BAL pitchers got chosen since they deserve it.

With Pagan's stats against left handed batters this season, it seemed like a rough choice. But it ideally would have been one out between the next two batters. At least De Leon did his job to get us to a spot where we needed just one out. Side note - this is when we wish Thielbar was back from his injury! Hope everything is going okay there. With some of the recent struggles, the team needs him.

Welcome to TwinsDaily. Similar to what @wsnydessaid, it is a long season, so hard to know on some players until you get a larger sample size. For Lewis, I would encourage you to wait a few weeks before deciding if he doesn't have it anymore (unless you were kidding on this one.) Even major league stars go to the minors for rehab assignments and have some horrible first few games back. For Lee, I agree that he hasn't been doing great the past few weeks. I clicked on his name above to go to the Baseball Reference page and then his splits tab. It can be discouraging seeing his numbers for the last 7 days (or last 28 days). As said above, the season is long and the teams play the same team for the whole week, which I find can provide streaks by hitters in good and bad ways. Also encouraging for Lee is that he has had 4 ABs against younger pitchers and is 2 1/2 years younger on average! That is incredible. Still lots of time for Lee to do even better than his current .751 OPS this year. 🙂